Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446... 

11 000 years of fire history and climate in the mountain hemlock rain forests of southwestern British 

Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal 

Type Journal Article 

Author Douglas J. Hallett 

Author Dana S. Lepofsky 

Author Rolf W. Mathewes 

Author Kenneth P. Lertzman 

Abstract Little is known about the role of fire in the mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière) rain forests 

of southern British Columbia. High-resolution analysis of macroscopic charcoal from lake sediment cores, along 

with 102 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ages on soil charcoal, was used to reconstruct the long-term fire 

history around two subalpine lakes in the southern Coast and North Cascade Mountains. AMS ages on soil 

charcoal provide independent evidence of local fire around a lake and support the interpretation of peaks in lake 

sediment charcoal as distinct fire events during the Holocene. Local fires are rare, with intervals ranging from 

centuries to several millennia at some sites. Overall fire frequency varied continuously throughout the 

Holocene, suggesting that fire regimes are linked to climate via large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. 

Fires were frequent between 11 000 and 8800 calendar years BP during the warm and dry early Holocene. The 

onset of humid conditions in the mid-Holocene, as rain forest taxa established in the region, produced a variable 

fire period until 3500 calendar years BP. A synchronous decrease in fire frequency from 3500 to 2400 calendar 

years BP corresponds to Neoglacial advances in the region and cool humid climate. A return of frequent fire 

between 2400 and 1300 calendar years BP suggests that prolonged summer drought occurred more often during 

this interval, which we name the Fraser Valley Fire Period. The present-day fire regime was established after 

1300 calendar years BP. 

Publication Canadian Journal of Forest Research 

Volume 33 

Issue 2 

Pages 292–312 

Date February 2003 

Journal Abbr Can. J. For. Res. 

DOI 10.1139/X02-177 

ISSN 1208-6037 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x02-177 

Date Added Monday, August 29, 2011 5:30:07 PM 

Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:32:17 AM 

1910 fres - USFS history 

Type Web Page 

Author Forest History Society 

Abstract The United States Forest Service, an agency within the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has existed for more 

than one hundred years with the express purpose of managing public forests and grasslands. Much can be 

learned about the changing attitudes of the American people toward nature, natural resources, and each other, 

by examining the history of the USFS. These webpages are intended to document some of that long history...... 

Website Title U.S. Forest Service History 

URL http://www.foresthistory.org/ASPNET/Policy/Fire/FamousFires/1910Fires.aspx 

Rights © 2011 Forest History Society 

Extra http://www.foresthistory.org/ 

Date Added Monday, August 29, 2011 5:19:52 AM 

Modified Monday, August 29, 2011 5:19:52 AM 

2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility 

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Author Ulf Büntgen 

Author Willy Tegel 

Author Kurt Nicolussi 

Author Michael McCormick 

Author David Frank 

Author Valerie Trouet 

Author Jed O. Kaplan 

Author Franz Herzig 

Author Karl-Uwe Heussner 

Author Heinz Wanner 

Author Jürg Luterbacher 

Author Jan Esper 

Abstract Climate variations have influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial 

societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, 

remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here, we present tree 

ring–based reconstructions of Central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 

2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been 

exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval 

prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman 

Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Historical circumstances may challenge recent political and 

fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change. 

Publication Science 

Volume 331 

Issue 6017 

Pages 578-582 

Date 4 February 2011 

Journal Abbr Science 

DOI 10.1126/science.1197175 

ISSN 0036-8075 

URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6017/578.full 

Date Added Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:47:25 AM 


A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America 


Author Connie A. Woodhouse 

Author David M. Meko 

Author Glen M. MacDonald 

Author Dave W. Stahle 

Author Edward R. Cook 

Abstract A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated 

temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought 

in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperaturedrought 

relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, 

∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent 

decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of 

approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western 

North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, 

duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though 

not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid 

conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might 

occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural 

climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future 

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drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the 

plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in 

the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future. 

Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21283 -21288 

Date December 14 , 2010 

Journal Abbr PNAS 

DOI 10.1073/pnas.0911197107 

ISSN 0027-8424 

URL http://www.pnas.org/content/107/50/21283.abstract 

Extra Keywords: climate change; water resources; paleoclimatology; medieval period. 

Date Added Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:55:16 AM 


A 10,000 year record of dune activity, dust storms, and severe drought in the central Great Plains 


Author Xiaodong Miao 

Author Joseph A. Mason 

Author James B. Swinehart 

Author David B. Loope 

Author Paul R. Hanson 

Author Ronald J. Goble 

Author Xiaodong Liu 

Abstract Dune fields and loess deposits of the Great Plains of North America contain stratigraphic records of eolian 

activity that can be used to extend the short observational record of drought. We present a 10,000 yr 

reconstruction of dune activity and dust production in the central Great Plains region, based on 95 optically 

stimulated luminescence ages. The integration of data from both eolian sand and loess is an important new 

aspect of this record. Clusters of ages define episodes of extensive eolian activity, which we interpret as a 

response to frequent severe drought, at 1.0–0.7 ka and 2.3–4.5 ka (with peaks centered on 2.5 and 3.8 ka); 

sustained eolian activity occurred from 9.6 to 6.5 ka. Parts of this record may be consistent with hypotheses 

linking Holocene drought to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific or Atlantic oceans, or to the El 

Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, but the record as a whole is difficult to reconcile with any of these 

hypotheses. 

Publication Geology 

Volume 35 

Issue 2 

Pages 119-122 


Journal Abbr Geology 

DOI 10.1130/G23133A.1 

ISSN 0091-7613 

URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/doi/10.1130/G23133A.1 

Extra Keywords: drought; eolian sand; loess; OSL dating; Great Plains; Holocene; Medieval Climate Anomaly. 

Date Added Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:35:38 PM 


A 14 000 year sedimentary charcoal record of fire from the northern Sierra Nevada, Lake Tahoe Basin, 

California, USA 

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Author R. Matthew Beaty 

Author Alan H. Taylor 

Abstract This research examines how the controls of fire episode frequency in the northern Sierra Nevada have varied at 

different temporal scales through the Holocene. A 5.5 m long sediment core was collected from Lily Pond, a 

~2.5 ha lake in the General Creek Watershed on the west shore of Lake Tahoe in the northern Sierra Nevada in 

California, USA. Dendrochronology was used to reconstruct the recent history of fire, and high-resolution 

charcoal analysis was used to reconstruct fire episodes for the last 14 000 cal. yr BP. Fire episode frequency was 

low during the Lateglacial period but increased through the middle Holocene to a maximum frequency around 

6500 cal. yr BP. During the late Holocene fire episode frequency generally declined except for noted peaks 

around 3000 cal. yr BP and 1000–800 cal. yr BP. These variations track major climatic and vegetation changes 

driven by millennial-timescale variation in the seasonal cycle of insolation and regional decadal- and 

centennial-scale variation in effective moisture in the mid and late Holocene in the Sierra Nevada. Fire episode 

frequency during the Holocene in the Lake Tahoe Basin varied in response to decadal-, centennialand 

millennial-scale climatic variability. Current fire episode frequency on the west shore of Lake Tahoe is at one of 

its lowest points in at least the last 14 000 years. Given the strong relationship between climate and fire episode 

frequency, warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may increase fire episode 

frequency to levels experienced during the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ or the early-Holocene summer insolation 

maximum as periods of drought intensify. 

Publication The Holocene 

Volume 19 

Issue 3 

Pages 347–358 

Date May 2009 

Journal Abbr Holocene 

DOI 10.1177/0959683608101386 

ISSN 1477-0911 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/content/19/3/347.abstract 

Extra Keywords: charcoal; climate change; Holocene; fire history; Sierra Nevada; California. 

Date Added Tuesday, August 23, 2011 2:05:29 AM 


A 2,300-year-long annually resolved record of the South American summer monsoon from the Peruvian 

Andes 


Author Broxton W. Bird 

Author Mark B. Abbott 

Author Mathias Vuille 

Author Donald T. Rodbell 

Author Nathan D. Stansell 

Author Michael F. Rosenmeier 

Abstract Decadal and centennial mean state changes in South American summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation during 

the last 2,300 years are detailed using an annually resolved authigenic calcite record of precipitation δ¹⁸O from a 

varved lake in the Central Peruvian Andes. This unique sediment record shows that δ¹⁸O peaked during the 

Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) from A.D. 900 to 1100, providing evidence that the SASM weakened 

considerably during this period. Minimum δ¹⁸O values occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between A.D. 

1400 and 1820, reflecting a prolonged intensification of the SASM that was regionally synchronous. After the 

LIA, δ¹⁸O increased rapidly, particularly during the current warm period (CWP; A.D. 1900 to present), 

indicating a return to reduced SASM precipitation that was more abrupt and sustained than the onset of the 

MCA. Diminished SASM precipitation during the MCA and CWP tracks reconstructed Northern Hemisphere 

and North Atlantic warming and a northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over 

the Atlantic, and likely the Pacific. Intensified SASM precipitation during the LIA follows reconstructed 

Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic cooling, El Niño-like warming in the Pacific, and a southward 

displacement of the ITCZ over both oceans. These results suggest that SASM mean state changes are sensitive 

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to ITCZ variability as mediated by Western Hemisphere tropical sea surface temperatures, particularly in the 

Atlantic. Continued Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic warming may therefore help perpetuate the recent 

reductions in SASM precipitation that characterize the last 100 years, which would negatively impact Andean 

water resources. 


Volume 108 

Issue 21 

Pages 8583-8588 

Date May 24, 2011 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1003719108 

ISSN 0027-8424 

URL http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1003719108 

Extra Keywords: oxygen isotopes; varves; tropical hydroclimate. 



A 200-year fire history in a remnant oak savanna in southeastern Wisconsin 


Author Joy Wolf 

Abstract In oak (Quercus) savannas in the Midwest region of the United States, fire continues to play a significant role in 

its persistence within the landscape; however, in southeastern Wisconsin, quantified fire history records are 

limited. This study documented occurrences of fire for the last 200 y using 16 cross-dated oak sections from an 

oak savanna remnant in Kenosha County, Wisconsin. Fire history was reconstructed by: (1) obtaining 

fire-scarred cross sections from cut down oaks in an area planned for an industrial park, (2) preparing sample 

surfaces to count rings, (3) creating skeleton plots to crossdate samples, (4) dating fire scars, (5) calculating 

intervals between fires and (6) determining seasonality of the fire. In addition, a master chronology was 

constructed for the oak savanna using the cross sections to correlate with precipitation. Throughout the entire 

time series, only 50% of the fire dates were associated with significantly dry years. Although the overall Weibull 

median interval was 4.59 y, fire frequency fluctuations and gaps reflected specific time periods of human 

activities. Although some studies report a high fire frequency during Euro-American settlement, in this study the 

mean fire interval (MFI) was 19.5 y in the early settlement years in 1840–1872 and 4.77 y in the post settlement 

years in 1873–1979. From 1980 to the present, MFI was 6.7 y. In addition, the data revealed time periods with 

no fire events: (1) during early Euro-American settlement (1840–1872), (2) land fragmentation and 

deforestation (1904–1920) and (3) increased industrial zoning (1989–present). Although lightning strikes occur 

most often during the summer months, the majority of fires that occurred during the dormant season (53%) were 

set by humans. These data are essential in understanding oak dynamics and in developing management 

programs for restoration and preservation of remnant areas of oak savanna. 

Publication The American Midland Naturalist 

Volume 152 

Issue 2 

Pages 201-213 

Date October 2004 

Journal Abbr Am. Midl. Nat. 

DOI 10.1674/0003-0031(2004)152[0201:AYFHIA]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1938-4238 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1674/0003-0031(2004)152%5B0201:AYFHIA%5D2.0.CO%3B2 



A 400-year history of fire and oak recruitment in an old-growth oak forest in western Maryland, USA 

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Author Durland L. Shumway 

Author Marc D. Abrams 

Author Charles M. Ruffner 

Abstract We document the fire history and associated ecological changes of an old-growth forest stand in western 

Maryland, U.S.A. The study area is located on the side slopes of a ridge system (Savage Mountain). Twenty 

basal cross sections were obtained from old trees cut in 1986, which provided evidence of 42 fires from 1615 to 

1958. Nine fires were recorded in the sample trees in the 17th century, 13 in the 18th century, 12 in the 19th 

century, and eight in the early to mid-20th century. However, there were no major fire years after 1930. The 

Weibull modal fire interval was 7.6 years. Oaks recruited consistently from the early 1600s to the early 1900s, 

but there was increased Acer rubrum L. and Betula lenta L. recruitment with fire suppression after 1930. 

Species recruitment patterns and long-term fire history reported in this study offer important direct support for 

the hypothesis that periodic fire played an important role in the historical development and perpetuation of oak 

forests of the mid-Atlantic region before and after European settlement. 


Volume 31 

Issue 8 

Pages 1437–1443 

Date August 2001 


DOI 10.1139/x01-079 

ISSN 0045-5067 


Date Added Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:26:09 PM 


A 400-year history of fires on lake islands in south-east Sweden 


Author Mats Niklasson 

Author Igor Drobyshev 

Author Tomasz Zielonka 

Abstract Island-lake ecosystems are suitable for testing scale dependence in forests disturbance theories thanks to 

differences in the potential for fire spread on islands and the mainland. We investigated past fire regime on the 

mainland and on islands in a large lake in south-east Sweden. We used dendrochronological methods to 

reconstruct fire disturbances on 18 small islands (0.04–24.1 ha) and in 43 sites in the surrounding 75-km2 

landscape over the last 400 years. In the past, fires were frequent on both islands and mainland but not 

synchronised on an annual scale. Significant temporal changes occurred around the middle of the 18th century. 

Before 1750, fires were less frequent on islands than on the mainland (median fire return interval 58 v. 25 years 

respectively). However, an inversion of this pattern was observed during 1750–1860: islands showed even 

shorter fire intervals than mainland locations, suggesting additional and likely human-related source of ignitions 

(median fire return interval 15 v. 29 years respectively). A substantial decrease in fire activity in both islands 

and mainland was apparent in 1860–1890. We suggest that the present fire regime (the last 100 years) on the 

small islands is largely natural as fire suppression is not present there. The dynamic nature of the fire regime on 

islands still requires further studies: islands may, at times, attract lightning, humans with fire, or both. 

Publication International Journal of Wildland Fire 

Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1050–1058 

Date December 2010 

Journal Abbr Int. J. Wildland Fire 

DOI 10.1071/WF09117 

ISSN 1448-5516 

URL http://www.publish.csiro.au/? 

paper=WF09117 

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Extra Keywords: dendrochronology; disturbance regime; disturbance theory; Fennoscandia; forest fire; land-use 

history; lightning ignition; Scots pine. 

Date Added Saturday, August 27, 2011 10:34:48 PM 

Modified Saturday, August 27, 2011 11:42:35 PM 

A 500 hPa synoptic wildland fire climatology for large Canadian forest fires, 1959-1996 


Author Walter R. Skinner 

Author Michael D. Flannigan 

Author Brian J. Stocks 

Author David L. Martell 

Author B. Mike Wotton 

Author J. Bernie Todd 

Author John A. Mason 

Author Kimberley A. Logan 

Author Erin M. Bosch 

Abstract In Canada, the average annual area of burned forest has increased from around 1 million ha in the 1970’s to 

over 2.5 million ha in the 1990’s. A previous study has identified the link between anomalous mid-tropospheric 

circulation at 500 hPa over northern North America and wildland fire severity activity in various large regions of 

Canada over the entire May to August fire season. In this study, a northern North American study region of the 

hemispheric gridded 5° latitude by 10° longitude 500 hPa dataset is identified and analysed from 1959 to 1996 

for a sequence of six monthly periods through the fire season, beginning in April and ending in September. 

Synoptic types, or modes of upper air behavior, are determined objectively by the eigenvector method 

employing K-means cluster analysis. Monthly burned areas from the Canadian Large Fire Database (LFDB) for 

the same period, 1959 to 1996, are analysed in conjunction with the classified monthly 500 hPa synoptic types. 

Relationships between common monthly patterns of anomalous upper flow and spatial patterns of large fire 

occurrence are examined at the ecozone level. Average occurrence of a monthly synoptic type associated with 

very large area burned is approximately 18% of the years from 1959 to 1996. The largest areas burned during 

the main fire (May to August) season occur in the western Boreal and Taiga ecozones – the Taiga Plains, Taiga 

Shield, Boreal West Shield and Boreal Plains. Monthly burned areas are also analysed temporally in conjunction 

with a calculated monthly zonal index (Zim) for two separate areas defined to cover western and eastern 

Canada. In both western and eastern Canada, high area burned is associated with synoptic types with 

mid-tropospheric ridging in the proximity of the affected region and low Zim with weak westerlies and strong 

meridional flow over western Canada. 

Publication Theoretical and Applied Climatology 

Volume 71 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 157-169 


Journal Abbr Theor. Appl. Climatol. 

DOI 10.1007/s007040200002 

ISSN 0177-798X 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp? 

genre=article&… 

Extra Keywords: burned areas; Canada; Canadian Large Fire Database (CLFD); fire climatology. 



A 560-year record of Santa Ana fires reconstructed from charcoal deposited in the Santa Barbara Basin, 

California 


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Author Scott A. Mensing 

Author Joel Michaelsen 

Author Roger Byrne 

Abstract Microscopic charcoal from varved Santa Barbara Basin sediments was used to reconstruct a 560-yr record 

(A.D. 1425 to 1985) of Santa Ana fires. Comparison of large (>3750 μm²) charcoal with documented fire 

records in the Santa Barbara Ranger District shows that high accumulations correspond to large fires (>20,000 

ha) that occurred during Santa Ana conditions. The charcoal record reconstructed a minimum of 20 large fires in 

the Santa Barbara region during the study period. The average time between fires shows no distinct change 

across three different land use periods: the Chumash period, apparently characterized by frequent burning, the 

Spanish/Early American period with nominal fire control, and the 20th century with active fire suppression. 

Pollen data support the conclusion that the fire regime has not dramatically changed during the last 500 yr. 

Comparison of large charcoal particle accumulation rates and precipitation reconstructed from tree rings show a 

strong relationship between climate and fire history, with large fires consistently occurring at the end of wet 

periods and the beginning of droughts. 

Publication Quaternary Research 

Volume 51 

Issue 3 

Pages 295–305 

Date May 1999 

Journal Abbr Quaternary Res. 

DOI 10.1006/qres.1999.2035 

ISSN 0033-5894 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589499920355 

Extra Keywords: Santa Ana; fire history; microscopic charcoal; Santa Barbara Basin; varved sediments. 



A 9000-year fire history from the Oregon Coast Range, based on a high-resolution charcoal study 


Author Colin J. Long 

Author Cathy Whitlock 

Author Patrick J. Bartlein 

Author Sarah H. Millspaugh 

Abstract High-resolution analysis of macroscopic charcoal in sediment cores from Little Lake was used to reconstruct the 

fire history of the last 9000 years. Variations in sediment magnetism were examined to detect changes in 

allochthonous sedimentation associated with past fire occurrence. Fire intervals from ca. 9000 to 6850 calendar 

years BP averaged 110 ± 20 years, when the climate was warmer and drier than today and xerophytic 

vegetation dominated. From ca. 6850 to 2750 calendar years BP the mean fire interval lengthened to 160 ± 20 

years in conjunction with the onset of cool humid conditions. Fire-sensitive species, such as Thuja plicata Donn 

ex D. Don, Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg., and Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., increased in abundance. At ca. 

4000 calendar years BP, increases in allochthonous sedimentation increased the delivery of secondary charcoal 

to the site. From ca. 2750 calendar years BP to present, the mean fire interval increased to 230 ± 30 years as 

cool humid conditions and mesophytic taxa prevailed. The Little Lake record suggests that fire frequency has 

varied continuously on millennial time scales as a result of climate change and the present-day fire regime has 

been present for no more than 1000 years. 


Volume 28 

Issue 5 

Pages 774–787 

Date May 1998 


DOI 10.1139/cjfr-28-5-774 

ISSN 0045-5067 


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A brief history of atmospheric general circulation modeling (Chapter 2) 

Type Book Section 

Author Paul N. Edwards 

Abstract This article covers the history of atmospheric general circulation modeling from its prehistory through about 

1985. The backgrounds, chief models, and influences of the major GCM modeling groups established in the 

1960s (GFDL, UCLA, and NCAR) are discussed. The author solicits comments and criticism for a Web site and 

future book on this largely unexplored topic. 

Book Title General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present, and Future 

Series International Geophysics 

Volume 70 

Place New York, NY 

Publisher Academic Press 

Date 2001 

Pages 67-90 

ISBN 0-12-578010-9, 978-0-12-578010-0 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science? 

_ob=ArticleURL&… 

Library Catalog Elsevier Science Publishers 

Extra doi:10.1016/S0074-6142(00)80050-9 

Date Added Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:42:07 AM 

Modified Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:44:34 AM 

Notes: 

Citation: 

Paul N. Edwards, “A Brief History of Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling” 

in David A. Randall, ed., General Circulation Model Development, Past Present and Future: The Proceedings of a Symposium in 

Honor of Akio Arakawa (New York: Academic Press, 2000), 67-90 

A burning story: The role of fire in the history of life 


Author Juli G. Pausas 

Author Jon E. Keeley 

Abstract Ecologists, biogeographers, and paleobotanists have long thought that climate and soils controlled the 

distribution of ecosystems, with the role of fire getting only limited appreciation. Here we review evidence from 

different disciplines demonstrating that wildfire appeared concomitant with the origin of terrestrial plants and 

played an important role throughout the history of life. The importance of fire has waxed and waned in 

association with changes in climate and paleoatmospheric conditions. Well before the emergence of humans on 

Earth, fire played a key role in the origins of plant adaptations as well as in the distribution of ecosystems. 

Humans initiated a new stage in ecosystem fire, using it to make the Earth more suited to their lifestyle. 

However, as human populations have expanded their use of fire, their actions have come to dominate some 

ecosystems and change natural processes in ways that threaten the sustainability of some landscapes. 

Publication BioScience 

Volume 59 

Issue 7 

Pages 593–601 

Date July-August 2009 

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Journal Abbr BioScience 

DOI 10.1525/bio.2009.59.7.10 

ISSN 0006-3568 

Short Title A burning story 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1525/bio.2009.59.7.10 

Extra Keywords: fire regime; fire history; fire ecology; plant evolution; human evolution. 



A classification of the forest types of North America 


Author John L. Vankat 

Abstract Previous classifications at continental to state/provincial scales were surveyed in order to produce a new 

classification of North American forests. This classification is of present-day forests and includes both seral and 

old-growth forest types. The classification is hierarchical, as physiognomically-based formation types are 

defined on the basis of growth form of dominant trees and subdivided into forest types according to the species 

of these dominants. The classification includes a total of 68 forest types and 1 complex of forest types. These 

are presented by formation type (9) and by forest region (11). The number of formation types is largest in forest 

regions where major climate types intergrade, i.e., in the United States Coastal Plain and Piedmont Lowland (6 

types) and the Central American Montane (5). The number of forest types is largest in the Eastern United States 

Lowland (12) and the Rocky Moutain—Sierra Madre Oriental—Sierra Madre Occidental Montane (11). 

Publication Vegetatio 

Volume 88 

Issue 1 

Pages 53-66 

Date July 1990 

Journal Abbr Vegetatio 

DOI 10.1007/BF00032602 

ISSN 0042-3106 

URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/20038636 

Extra Keywords: Canada; Central America; forest type; formation type; Mexico; vegetation; USA. 



A comparison of stand structure and fire history in two black oak woodlands in northwestern Indiana 


Author Norman R. Henderson 

Author James N. Long 

Abstract The composition and structure of two black oak woodlands in northwestern Indiana are examined. Current 

conditions are compared with those existing in the early 1800s, based on public land survey records of the two 

areas. Fire histories during the past 50 yr are reconstructed from fire scars, age-class distributions, and 

fire-control records. On the basis of this information, we concluded that frequency and intensity of fire strongly 

influence stand structure and succession in these black oak woodlands. 

Publication Botanical Gazette 

Volume 145 

Issue 2 

Pages 222–228 

Date June 1984 

Journal Abbr Bot. Gaz. 

ISSN 0006-8071 

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A continuous climate-vegetation classification for use in climate-biosphere studies 


Author Victor Brovkin 

Author Andrei Ganopolski 

Author Yuri Svirezhev 

Abstract An interactive coupling of global climate models with models for the terrestrial vegetation requires a reduction 

of the number of vegetation classes in comparison with traditional bioclimatic classification. We suggest a 

continuous vegetation classification based on two main plant functional types: trees and grass. Correspondence 

between climate and these vegetation types on a global scale was analysed on the basis of state-of-the-art global 

climate and vegetation datasets. An empirical formula describing a fraction of trees as a function of climate 

(mean annual temperature and precipitation) was obtained. 

Publication Ecological Modelling 

Volume 101 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 251–261 

Date 15 August 1997 

Journal Abbr Ecol. Model 

DOI 10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00049-5 

ISSN 0304-3800 


Extra Ketwords: vegetation classification; plant functional types; trees; grass. 

Date Added Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:09:30 AM 

Modified Friday, August 26, 2011 8:34:22 PM 

A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade 


Author Andrew E. Dessler 

Abstract Estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity are uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in the long-term cloud 

feedback. I estimated the magnitude of the cloud feedback in response to short-term climate variations by 

analyzing the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget from March 2000 to February 2010. Over this period, the 

short-term cloud feedback had a magnitude of 0.54 ± 0.74 (2σ) watts per square meter per kelvin, meaning that 

it is likely positive. A small negative feedback is possible, but one large enough to cancel the climate’s positive 

feedbacks is not supported by these observations. Both long- and short-wave components of short-term cloud 

feedback are also likely positive. Calculations of short-term cloud feedback in climate models yield a similar 

feedback. I find no correlation in the models between the short- and long-term cloud feedbacks. 


Volume 330 

Issue 6010 

Pages 1523-1527 

Date 10 December 2010 


DOI 10.1126/science.1192546 

ISSN 0036-8075 

URL http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1192546 


Modified Tuesday, August 30, 2011 4:16:19 AM 

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A fire history from tree rings in a high-elevation forest of Rocky Mountain National Park 


Author Arne Buechling 

Author William L. Baker 

Abstract Historical fire patterns in a subalpine forest of Rocky Mountain National Park were quantified from an analysis 

of forest stand ages and fire-scarred trees. A comparatively detailed sample of 3461 tree cores and 212 fire 

scars was collected from a 9200-ha study area north of Estes Park, Colorado. A total of 41 fire events were 

identified in the record. Annually precise fire dates, beginning in 1533, include 22 high-severity crown fires, 7 

low-severity surface fires, and 8 mixed-severity events with both surface and crown fire components. Fire 

rotation was estimated for both surface fires (7587 years) and crown fires (346 years). Fire rotation did not 

appear to vary with fuel characteristics associated with topographical differences in the study area. Fires larger 

than 300 ha were few, but they determined a large proportion of the area burned since 1700 and were 

significantly correlated with a reconstructed index of summer drought. Low fire activity in the 20th century was 

associated with decreased severity and frequency of drought episodes. Long fire rotations preclude definitive 

conclusions regarding the effects of fire suppression in the 20th century, but relationships between high-severity 

fires, fuels, and drought suggest that climatic variability remains the primary influence on fire cycles in 

high-elevation ecosystems of the southern Rocky Mountains. 


Volume 34 

Issue 6 

Pages 1259-1273 



DOI 10.1139/x04-012 

ISSN 1208-6037 




A fire history of a subalpine forest in south-eastern Wyoming, USA 


Author Kurt F. Kipfmueller 


Abstract Fire history was determined for part of the Routt-Medicine Bow National Forest in south-eastern Wyoming 

using fire-scar and age-class analysis. A composite chronology of fire events was used to determine mean fire 

intervals (MFI) for pre-EuroAmerican settlement, EuroAmerican settlement (before 1868 ad), EuroAmerican 

settlement and modern (after 1912) periods, for all fires and stand-replacing fires. Point-scale MFI was also 

determined using grand means from individual trees. Stand-replacing fires were reconstructed to determine fire 

rotation. MFI for the entire time period is 5.5–8.4 years. MFI decreased from 9.3 to 15.7–1.9–2.9 years from the 

preto post-EuroAmerican settlement periods, and increased during the modern period. Point-scale MFIs are 

longer than MFI of the study area. Fire rotation is 182 years for the total period of record, but increased from 

127 years during the pre-EuroAmerican settlement period to 170 years during the EuroAmerican settlement 

period. Fire rotation during the modern period dramatically increased to 27,035 years. Results suggest fire 

suppression may have influenced the fire regime. Comparison of regional fire events with fire events from this 

study indicate regional weather has an important influence on Rocky Mountain fire regimes. 

Publication Journal of Biogeography 

Volume 27 

Issue 1 

Pages 71–85 

Date January 2000 

Journal Abbr J. Biogeogr. 

DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00364.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 

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URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00364.x/full 

Extra Keywords: fire history; subalpine forests; lodgepole pine; fire-scars; Rocky Mountains; Wyoming. 



A fire history of the high Chisos, Big Bend National Park, Texas 


Author W. H Moir 

Abstract Fire history was studied in cypress forests and pinyon-juniper savannas. Fire dates were determined by tree ring 

counts from scars on Pinus cembroides. At least 10 fires occurred in the vicinity of Boot Canyon and at least 

eight on the Rim between 1770 and 1940. Episodic ground fires seem an important mortality factor of 

established pinyon and cypress saplings, but as trees grow to larger sizes, fire mortality is reduced. Longer fire 

intervals probably are filters that permit trees to survive into larger, fire-impervious sizes. Surface fires about 

every 50 years are one way to maintain the vegetation in some semblance of a natural, fire-regulated condition. 

Publication The Southwestern Naturalist 

Volume 27 

Issue 1 

Pages 87–98 

Date February 19, 1982 

Journal Abbr Southwest. Nat. 

ISSN 0038-4909 




A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation 


Author Susanne C. Moser 

Author Julia A. Ekstrom 

Abstract This article presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to 

climate change. The framework targets the process of planned adaptation and focuses on potentially challenging 

but malleable barriers. Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. First, a staged 

depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision-making makes up the process component. 

Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function 

(e.g., governance), and the object on which they act (the system of concern that is exposed to climate change). 

At each of these stages, we ask (i) what could impede the adaptation process and (ii) how do the actors, context, 

and system of concern contribute to the barrier. To facilitate the identification of barriers, we provide a series of 

diagnostic questions. Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention 

to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to 

support climate change adaptation at all levels of decision-making. 


Volume 107 

Issue 51 

Pages 22026-22031 

Date December 21, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1007887107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: adapting; social-ecological system; decision process. 


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Modified Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:35:38 PM 

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS 


Author Jian Yang 

Author Hong S. He 

Author Eric J. Gustafson 

Abstract Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based 

approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of 

statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages—fire ignition and fire initiation. However, 

the exponential and Weibull fire-interval distributions, which model a fire occurrence as a single event, are often 

inappropriately applied to these two-stage models. We propose a hierarchical fire frequency model in which the 

joint distribution of fire frequency is factorized into a series of conditional distributions. The model is consistent 

with the framework of statistically based approaches because it accounts for the separation of fire ignition from 

fire occurrence. The exponential andWeibull models are actually special cases of our hierarchical model. In 

addition, more complicated non-stationary temporal patterns of fire occurrence also can be simulated with the 

same approach. We implemented this approach as an improved fire module in LANDIS and conducted 

experiments within forest landscapes of northern Wisconsin and southern Missouri. The results of our 

experiments demonstrate this new fire module can simulate a wide range of fire regimes across heterogeneous 

landscapes with a few parameters and a moderate amount of input data. The model possesses great flexibility 

for simulating temporal variations in fire frequency for various forest ecosystems and can serve as a theoretical 

framework for future statistical modeling of fire regimes. 


Volume 180 

Issue 1 

Pages 119–133 



DOI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.03.017 

ISSN 0304-3800 


Extra Keywords: fire frequency model; fire regime; hierarchical modeling; LANDIS. 



A historical perspective on pitch pine-scrub oak communities in the Connecticut Valley of 

Massachusetts 


Author Glenn Motzkin 

Author William A. Patterson III 

Author David R. Foster 

Abstract We present a regional–historical approach to the interpretation, conservation, and management of pitch 

pine–scrub oak (PPSO) communities in the Connecticut Valley of Massachusetts. Historical studies, aerial 

photographs, GIS analyses, and extensive field sampling are used to (a) document changes in the historical 

distribution, composition, and dynamics of these communities, and (b) evaluate the importance of regional– 

historical approaches to understanding, conserving, and managing uncommon communities. At the time of 

European settlement, pine plains dominated by both pitch and white pine were widespread, occurring on 9000 

ha or more of the extensive (approximately 32,000 ha) xeric outwash deposits in the Connecticut Valley. Pine 

plains were harvested for diverse forest products from the 17th to the early 19th centuries. After 1830, most 

sites were cleared and plowed for agriculture and then abandoned in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, 

resulting in widespread natural reforestation. Modern PPSO communities differ from historical communities 

with respect to landscape distribution, composition, and structure. Nearly all modern pitch pine stands in the 

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Connecticut Valley became established on former agricultural fields. Current vegetation on these former fields 

differs substantially from those few sites that were never plowed. In particular, several species (for example, 

Gaultheria procumbens, Gaylussacia baccata, Quercus ilicifolia, and Q. prinoides) that are characteristic of 

unplowed sites have not successfully colonized former fields in the 50 to more than 100 years since agricultural 

abandonment. Urban, commercial, and residential development have been widespread in the 20th century. By 

1985, only 38.6% of the outwash deposits remained forested, and only 1094 ha of pitch pine stands and 74 ha of 

scrub oak stands occurred, primarily in numerous small patches. Several stands have been destroyed since 1985, 

and development threatens all remaining sites. The trend towards rapid urban development in the 20th century 

makes it increasingly urgent that the few, relatively large, undeveloped sites be protected. Our results suggest 

that (a) land protection efforts should prioritize large, undeveloped sand plains, areas that were not plowed 

historically, and reestablishment of contiguity between isolated sites to facilitate colonization of former 

agricultural lands by sand plain species; (b) management of PPSO communities should not be restricted to 

maintenance of open barrens; “old-growth” pitch and white pine stands occurred historically, and some PPSO 

communities should be allowed to mature without frequent disturbance; (c) the exclusive use of prescribed fires 

during the spring months is unlikely to maintain communities similar to modern ones or to restore communities 

similar to historical ones. Establishment or maintenance of open barrens species and communities may require 

more varied disturbance regimes, perhaps including mechanical treatment in combination with prescribed fire to 

simulate severe summer fires; (d) regional–historical perspectives are critical for understanding modern 

community dynamics and for evaluating conservation objectives and management strategies for uncommon 

plant communities. 

Publication Ecosystems 

Volume 2 

Issue 3 

Pages 255–273 

Date May-June 1999 

Journal Abbr Ecosystems 

DOI 10.1007/s100219900073 

ISSN 1432-9840 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/3djya1u7xejrynpn/ 



A history of fire and vegetation in northeastern Minnesota as recorded in lake sediments 


Author Albert M. Swain 

Abstract The record of charcoal in lake sediments indicates that fire has always been an important ecological factor in 

the forest history of northeastern Minnesota. The annually laminated sediments of Lake of the Clouds permit 

precise dating of the charcoal peaks and record the changes in the influx of various pollen types. A detailed 

record of the past 1000 yr shows that the average frequency of fire is approximately 60–70 yr, with a range of 

about 20–100 yr. The amount of charcoal in sediments dating between 1000-500 y.a. is consistently higher than 

that for the last 500 yr, although the fire frequency for the two periods was not appreciably different. Pollen 

analysis shows no change or only short-term changes in the percentages of major pollen types following 

charcoal peaks. 


Volume 3 

Issue 3 

Pages 383–390 



DOI 10.1016/0033-5894(73)90004-5 

ISSN 0033-5894 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589473900045 



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A history of forest policy in the United States 


Author James L Huffman 

Abstract no abstract 

Publication Environmental Law 

Volume 8 

Pages 239-280 

Date 1977-1978 

Journal Abbr Envtl. L. 

ISSN 0046-2276 

URL http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage? 

collection=journals&… 

Loc. in Archive Environmental law / Northwestern School of Law of Lewis and Clark College 



A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests 


Author Yude Pan 

Author Richard A. Birdsey 

Author Jingyun Fang 

Author Richard Houghton 

Author Pekka E. Kauppi 

Author Werner A. Kurz 

Author Oliver L. Phillips 

Author Anatoly Z. Shvidenko 

Author Simon L. Lewis 

Author Josep G. Canadell 

Author Philippe Ciais 

Author Robert B. Jackson 

Author Stephen Pacala 

Author A. David McGuire 

Author Shilong Piao 

Author Aapo Rautiainen 

Author Stephen Sitch 

Author Daniel Hayes 

Abstract The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using 

forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 

petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year⁻¹) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg 

C year⁻¹ from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C 

year⁻¹ partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year⁻¹. Together, the 

fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year⁻¹, with tropical estimates having the largest 

uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil 

fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks. 


Volume 333 

Issue 6045 

Pages 988-993 


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DOI 10.1126/science.1201609 

ISSN 0036-8075 




A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels 

Type Report 

Author Richard C. Rothermel 

Abstract A mathematical fire model for predicting rate of spread and intensity that is applicable to a wide range of 

wildland fuels and environment is presented. Methods of incorporating mixtures of fuel sizes are introduced by 

weighting input parameters by surface area. The input parameters do not require a prior knowledge of the 

burning characteristics of the fuel. 

Report Number INT-RP-115 

Report Type Research Paper 

Place Ogden, UT 

Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 


Pages 40 p. 

URL http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/32533 

Extra Keywords: fire spread; intensity; wildland fuels; fire model. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Rothermel, Richard C. 1972. A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels. Res. Pap. INT-115. Ogden, UT: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 40 p. 

A model for predicting synoptic weather types based on model output statistics 


Author Morris H. McCutchan 

Abstract An objective classification model was developed that can automatically predict synoptic weather types in 

southern California. Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to match the National Meteorological Center's 

Limited-area Fine Mesh (LFM) Model Output Statistics to subjectively classified weather types or patterns. The 

five classified weather types range from hot, dry, windy Santa Ana days to cool, rainy, cloudy days caused by a 

synoptic low. Discriminant function equations were developed for predicting each weather type 12 and 24 h in 

advance by screening 80 potential predictors consisting of forecasts at 500, 700 and 850 mb from the LFM 

model. Model output at nine grid points was used because that information adequately describes the 

meteorological patterns over southern California. Using independent LFM model forecasts valid 12 and 24 h in 

advance, the objective classification model predicted the probability of the days being in each of the five 

weather types, then the type with the highest probability was selected. Eighty-eight of 107 24 h periods (days) 

centered 12 h in advance (81%) were correctly predicted. Of 99 independent days centered 24 h in advance, 71 

(72%) were correctly predicted. Hourly means and standard deviations of surface temperature and dew points 

at eight research sites in the San Bernardino Mountains computed by month for the five weather types had 

distinct diurnal variations corresponding with weather types. Summarizing hourly temperatures in August at the 

eight sites by weather type reduced their standard deviation by almost one-half. Measurements of mean daily 

maximum ozone at a San Bernardino Mountain crest site, where chronic ozone injury to ponderosa pine has 

occurred, showed significant differences between the weather types. The mean surface wind, temperature and 

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dew-point patterns at 2100 GMT over southern California for type 1 (Santa Ana) days show strong offshore 

winds, high temperatures and very low dew points, whereas type 5 (synoptic low) days show strong onshore 

winds, low temperatures and high dew points. 

Publication Journal of Applied Meteorology 

Volume 17 

Issue 10 

Pages 1466-1475 


Journal Abbr J. Appl. Meteorol. 

DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(1978)0172.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0021-8952 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0450%281978%29017%3C1466%3AAMFPSW%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



A modified Köppen classification applied to model simulations of glacial and interglacial climates 


Author Peter J. Guetter 

Author John E. Kutzbach 

Abstract A series of experiments was done using an atmospheric general circulation model to simulate climates from full 

glacial time at 18 ka (thousands of years before the present) to the present at 3000 year intervals, and at 126 ka, 

the previous interglacial period. A modified Köppen climate classification was developed to aid in the 

interpretation of the results of the circulation model experiments. The climate classification scheme permits the 

characterization of eleven distinct seasonal temperature and precipitation regimes. For the modern climate, the 

modified classification agrees well with a classification of natural vegetation zones, and provides an easilyassimilated 

depiction of climate changes resulting from the varying boundary conditions in the past. At 18 ka, 

the time of glacial maximum, 45% of the land surface had climate classifications different from the present. At 

126 ka, a time when northern hemisphere summer radiation was much greater than at present owing to changes 

in the date of perihelion and tilt of the earth's axis, the corresponding difference was 32%. For all experiments - 

3 to 18 ka and 126 ka - only 30% of the land surface showed no change in climate classification from the 

present. Core areas showing no change included the Amazon basin, the northern Sahara and Australia. 

Publication Climatic Change 

Volume 16 

Issue 2 

Pages 193–215 

Date April 1990 

Journal Abbr Climatic Change 

DOI 10.1007/BF00134657 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/th2705356518105x/ 



A national cohesive wildland fire management strategy 


Author Danny C. Lee 

Author Alan A. Ager 

Author Dave E. Calkin 

Author Mark A. Finney 

Author Matthew P. Thompson 

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Author Thomas M. Quigley 

Author Charles W. McHugh 


Report Type Cohesive Strategy Reports 

Place Washington, D.C. 

Institution Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC) 

Date March 2011 

Pages 40 p. 

URL http://www.forestsandrangelands.gov/strategy/ 

Loc. in Archive Forests and Rangelands 



A national ecological network for research and education 


Author Margaret Lowman 

Author Charlene D'Avanzo 

Author Carol Brewer 



Volume 323 

Issue 5918 

Pages 1172-1173 



DOI 10.1126/science.1166945 

ISSN 0036-8075 

Short Title Ecology 




A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide 


Author David J. Hofmann 

Author James H. Butler 

Author Pieter P. Tans 

Abstract Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere and is of considerable concern in global climate change because 

of its greenhouse gas warming potential. The rate of increase has accelerated since measurements began at 

Mauna Loa Observatory in 1958 where carbon dioxide increased from less than 1 part per million per year (ppm 

yr⁻¹) prior to 1970 to more than 2 ppm yr⁻¹ in recent years. Here we show that the anthropogenic component 

(atmospheric value reduced by the pre-industrial value of 280 ppm) of atmospheric carbon dioxide has been 

increasing exponentially with a doubling time of about 30 years since the beginning of the industrial revolution 

(not, vert, similar1800). Even during the 1970s, when fossil fuel emissions dropped sharply in response to the 

“oil crisis” of 1973, the anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide level continued increasing exponentially at 

Mauna Loa Observatory. Since the growth rate (time derivative) of an exponential has the same characteristic 

lifetime as the function itself, the carbon dioxide growth rate is also doubling at the same rate. This explains the 

observation that the linear growth rate of carbon dioxide has more than doubled in the past 40 years. The 

accelerating growth rate is simply the outcome of exponential growth in carbon dioxide with a nearly constant 

doubling time of about 30 years (about 2%/yr) and appears to have tracked human population since the 

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pre-industrial era. 

Publication Atmospheric Environment 

Volume 43 

Issue 12 

Pages 2084-2086 


Journal Abbr Atmo. Environ. 

DOI 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.028 

ISSN 1352-2310 

URL http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231008011540 

Extra Keywords: climate change; carbon dioxide. 



A new look at global forest histories of land clearing 


Author Michael Williams 

Abstract Uncertainty about historical evidence of forest clearing is highlighted; nevertheless, its longevity and basic 

importance for survival make an understanding of the process important. First, archaeological and 

paleobotanical evidence for clearing during late Mesolithic and Neolithic Europe is examined. A similar 

examination of the Americas during past millennia emphasizes the myth of a pristine precontact forest. 

Post-1950s deforestation is beset with similar problems of forest extent and loss, pathways and processes of 

change, and the rate of change. Recent literature also reflects concerns about past and present motives in 

clearing and management, emphasizing conflicts between traditional users and modern producers, North/South 

inequalities of consumption/production, and social confrontation. The cultural meaning of the forest is another 

current theme, developed through dominant “discourses.” Finally, I argue that humans and the organic world are 

intimately entwined, and our expectations and ideas of the natural world actually mold the way we use and 

manipulate it. 

Publication Annual Review of Environment and Resources 

Volume 33 

Issue 1 

Pages 345–367 

Date November 2008 

Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.environ.33.040307.093859 

ISSN 1543-5938 

URL http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.environ.33.040307.093859 

Extra Keywords: contemporary deforestation; ethics of clearing; historical uncertainty; prehistoric cleaning. 



A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO predictions 


Author Richard Kleeman 

Author Andrew M. Moore 

Abstract Determination of the reliability of particular ENSO forecasts is of particular importance to end users. 

Theoretical arguments are developed that indicate that the amplitudes of slowly decaying (or growing) normal 

modes of the coupled system provide a useful measure of forecast reliability. Historical forecasts from a skillful 

prediction model together with a series of ensemble predictions from a “perfect model” experiment are used to 

demonstrate that these arguments carry over to the practical prediction situation. In such a setting it is found 

that the amplitude of the dominant normal mode, which strongly resembles the observed ENSO cycle, is a 

20 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


potentially useful index of reliability. The fact that this index was generally lower in the 1970s than the 1980s 

provides an explanation for why many coupled models performed better in the latter decade. It does not, 

however, explain the low skill of some coupled models in the early 1990s as the index defined here was then 

moderate. 

Publication Monthly Weather Review 

Volume 127 

Issue 5 

Pages 694-705 

Date May 1999 

Journal Abbr Mon. Wea. Rev. 

DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)1272.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0027-0644 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175 

/1520-0493%281999%29127%3C0694%3AANMFDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance 


Author Greg Kopp 

Author Judith L. Lean 

Abstract The most accurate value of total solar irradiance during the 2008 solar minimum period is 1360.8 ± 0.5 Wm⁻² 

according to measurements from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate 

Experiment (SORCE) and a series of new radiometric laboratory tests. This value is significantly lower than the 

canonical value of 1365.4 ± 1.3 Wm⁻² established in the 1990s, which energy balance calculations and climate 

models currently use. Scattered light is a primary cause of the higher irradiance values measured by the earlier 

generation of solar radiometers in which the precision aperture defining the measured solar beam is located 

behind a larger, view-limiting aperture. In the TIM, the opposite order of these apertures precludes this spurious 

signal by limiting the light entering the instrument. We assess the accuracy and stability of irradiance 

measurements made since 1978 and the implications of instrument uncertainties and instabilities for climate 

research in comparison with the new TIM data. TIM's lower solar irradiance value is not a change in the Sun's 

output, whose variations it detects with stability comparable or superior to prior measurements; instead, its 

significance is in advancing the capability of monitoring solar irradiance variations on climate-relevant time 

scales and in improving estimates of Earth energy balance, which the Sun initiates. 

Publication Geophysical Research Letters 

Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages L01706 (7 p.) 


Journal Abbr Geophys. Res. Lett. 

DOI 10.1029/2010GL045777 

ISSN 0094-8276 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010GL045777.shtml 

Extra Keywords: solar irradiance; solar variability; climate variability; global climate models. 



A polycentric approach for coping with climate change 


Author Elinor Ostrom 

21 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract This paper proposes an alternative approach to addressing the complex problems of climate change caused by 

greenhouse gas emissions. The author, who won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, argues that single 

policies adopted only at a global scale are unlikely to generate sufficient trust among citizens and firms so that 

collective action can take place in a comprehensive and transparent manner that will effectively reduce global 

warming. Furthermore, simply recommending a single governmental unit to solve global collective action 

problems is inherently weak because of freerider problems. For example, the Carbon Development Mechanism 

(CDM) can be ‘gamed’ in ways that hike up prices of natural resources and in some cases can lead to further 

natural resource exploitation. Some flaws are also noticeable in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and 

Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) program. Both the CDM and REDD are vulnerable to the 

free-rider problem. As an alternative, the paper proposes a polycentric approach at various levels with active 

oversight of local, regional, and national stakeholders. Efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are a 

classic collective action problem that is best addressed at multiple scales and levels. Given the slowness and 

conflict involved in achieving a global solution to climate change, recognizing the potential for building a more 

effective way of reducing green house gas emissions at multiple levels is an important step forward. A 

polycentric approach has the main advantage of encouraging experimental efforts at multiple levels, leading to 

the development of methods for assessing the benefits and costs of particular strategies adopted in one type of 

ecosystem and compared to results obtained in other ecosystems. Building a strong commitment to find ways of 

reducing individual emissions is an important element for coping with this problem, and having others also take 

responsibility can be more effectively undertaken in small- to medium-scale governance units that are linked 

together through information networks and monitoring at all levels. This paper was prepared as a background 

paper for the 2010 World Development Report on Climate Change. 

Report Number WPS5095 

Report Type Policy Research Working Paper 

Series Title The Policy Research Working Paper Series 

Place Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University 

Institution World Bank 


Pages 56 p. 

URL http://wdronline.worldbank.org/worldbank/a/nonwdrdetail/162 

Extra This paper—prepared as a background paper to the World Bank’s World Development Report 2010: 

Development in a Changing Climate—is a product of the Development Economics Vice Presidency. 



A postglacial palaeoecological record from the San Juan Mountains of Colorado USA: Fire, climate and 

vegetation history 


Author Jaime L. Toney 

Author R. Scott Anderson 

Abstract Continuous sediment, charcoal and pollen records were developed from a-4.5 m sediment core from Little 

Molas Lake (LML), 3370 m elevation, San Juan County, CO. LML formed by 11 200 cal. BP subsequent to 

glacial retreat. Turbated clay and gyttja was derived from in-lake productivity and outwash sediments from the 

drainage basin from 1 1 200 cal. BP until-10 200 cal. BP. Cessation of glacial input and replacement of tundra 

with Picea forest correlates with the termination of the Younger Dryas and indicates warming. An increase in 

diploxylon pollen (cf. P ponderosa), probably from lower elevations, reflects the influence of the southwestern 

monsoon c. 10 160 cal. BP. Pollen ratios indicate that Picea and other conifers persisted near the lake for the 

remainer of the Holocene. The driest Holocene period occurs c. 6200 to 5900 cal. BP, when lake levels were the 

lowest as indicated by all the proxy records. Wetter conditions during the last c. 2600 cal. BP favoured the 

expansion of P edulis and P ponderosa. Lateglacial fire events occurred on average every 65 years with a 

doubling of the fire return interval in the early Holocene. The former may reflect an increase in biomass for 

burning during a period of rapid vegetation turnover. The lowest fire event frequency occurs during the 

Neoglacial (after c. 4100), during a period of moister and cooler climate. The most recent pronounced peak in 

charcoal coincides with the historically documented AD 1879 Lime Creek Burn. 


Volume 16 

Issue 4 

22 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Pages 505 -517 

Date May 2006 


DOI 10.1191/0959683606hl946rp 

ISSN 1477-0911 

Short Title A postglacial palaeoecological record from the San Juan Mountains of Colorado USA 


Extra Keywords: palaeoecology; vegetation history; Southern Rocky Mountains; pollen analysis; charcoal analysis; 

Holocene; fire history. 



A pragmatic approach to functional ecology 


Author Paul A. Keddy 


Publication Functional Ecology 

Volume 6 

Issue 6 

Pages 621–626 

Date 1992 

Journal Abbr Funct. Ecol. 

DOI 10.2307/2389954 

ISSN 1365-2435 


Call Number 0118 



A project for monitoring trends in burn severity 


Author Jeff Eidenshink 

Author Brian Schwind 

Author Ken Brewer 

Author Zhi-Liang Zhu 

Author Brad Quayle 

Author Stephen Howard 

Abstract Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in 

order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), 

which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management 

Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and 

the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental 

impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To 

that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map 

and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced 

Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science 

(EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 

greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from 

this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS 

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project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and 

national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land 

management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor 

the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity 

will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource 

threats. The annual report of 2004 fires has been completed. All data and results will be distributed to the public 

on a Web site. 

Publication Fire Ecology 

Volume 3 

Issue 1 

Pages 3-21 


Journal Abbr Fire Ecol. 

DOI 10.4996/fireecology.0301003 

ISSN 1933-9747 

URL http://fireecology.net/index.php? 

option=com_journal&… 

Extra Keywords: burn severity; fire atlas; monitoring; normalized burn ratio; remote sensing. 



A quantitative approach to developing regional ecosystem classifications 


Author George E. Host 

Author Philip L. Polzer 

Author David J. Mladenoff 

Author Mark A. White 

Author Thomas R. Crow 

Abstract Ecological land classification systems have recently been developed at continental, regional, state, and 

landscape scales. In most cases, the map units of these systems result from subjectively drawn boundaries, often 

derived by consensus and with unclear choice and weighting of input data. Such classifications are of variable 

accuracy and are not reliably repeatable. We combined geographic information systems (GIS) with multivariate 

statistical analyses to integrate climatic, physiographic, and edaphic databases and produce a classification of 

regional landscape ecosystems on a 29 340-km² quadrangle of northwestern Wisconsin. Climatic regions were 

identified from a high-resolution climatic database consisting of 30-yr mean monthly temperature and 

precipitation values interpolated over a 1-km² grid across the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) 

coupled with an isodata clustering algorithm was used to identify regions of similar seasonal climatic trends. 

Maps of Pleistocene geology and major soil morphosequences were used to identify the major physiographic 

and soil regions within the landscape. Climatic and physiographic coverages were integrated to identify regional 

landscape ecosystems, which potentially differ in characteristic forest composition, successional dynamics, 

potential productivity, and other ecosystem-level processes. Validation analysis indicated strong correspondence 

between forest cover classes from an independently derived Landsat Thematic Mapper classification and 

ecological region. The development of more standardized data sets and analytical methods for ecoregional 

classification provides a basis for sound interpretations of forest management at multiple spatial scales. 

Publication Ecological Applications 

Volume 6 

Issue 2 

Pages 608–618 

Date May 1996 

Journal Abbr Ecol. Appl. 

DOI 10.2307/2269395 

ISSN 1051-0761 


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Extra Keywords: climate; ecological land classification; geographic information systems; landscape ecosystem; 

physiography; Wisconsin. 


Modified Monday, August 29, 2011 5:35:01 PM 

A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century 


Author Reto Knutti 

Author Myles R. Allen 

Author Pierre Friedlingstein 

Author Jonathan M. Gregory 

Author Gabriele C. Hegerl 

Author Gerald A. Meehl 

Author Malte Meinshausen 

Author James M. Murphy 

Author Gian-Kasper Plattner 

Author Sarah C. B. Raper 

Author Thomas F. Stocker 

Author Peter A. Stott 

Author Haiyan Teng 

Author Tom M. L. Wigley 

Abstract Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate 

policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for 

the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no 

policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of 

intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various 

published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for 

given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the 

confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by 

scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now 

constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in 

global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably 

well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and 

feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the 

models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the 

statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected 

warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle–climate feedbacks 

extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound. 

Publication Journal of Climate 

Volume 21 

Issue 11 

Pages 2651-2663 


Journal Abbr J. Climate 

DOI 10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1 

ISSN 0894-8755 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1 

Extra Keywords: temperature; anthropogenic effects; climate predictions; climate models; greenhouse gases. 



A simple type of wood in two early Devonian plants 

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Author Philippe Gerrienne 

Author Patricia G. Gensel 

Author Christine Strullu-Derrien 

Author Hubert Lardeux 

Author Philippe Steemans 

Author Cyrille Prestianni 

Abstract The advent of wood (secondary xylem) is a major event of the Paleozoic Era, facilitating the evolution of large 

perennial plants. The first steps of wood evolution are unknown. We describe two small Early Devonian (407 to 

397 million years ago) plants with secondary xylem including simple rays. Their wood currently represents the 

earliest evidence of secondary growth in plants. The small size of the plants and the presence of thick-walled 

cortical cells confirm that wood early evolution was driven by hydraulic constraints rather than by the necessity 

of mechanical support for increasing height. The plants described here are most probably precursors of 

lignophytes. 


Volume 333 

Issue 6044 

Pages 837-837 



DOI 10.1126/science.1208882 

ISSN 0036-8075 




A spatially precise study of Holocene fire history, climate and human impact within the Maurienne 

valley, North French Alps 


Author C. Carcaillet 

Publication Journal of Ecology 

Volume 86 

Issue 3 

Pages 384–396 

Date 1998 

ISSN 1365-2745 

Library Catalog Google Scholar 


Date Added Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:44:11 PM 

Modified Saturday, June 11, 2011 11:05:14 AM 

Attachments 

Google Scholar Linked Page 

A spatially-explicit reconstruction of historical fire occurrence in the ponderosa pine zone of the 

Colorado Front Range 


Author Rosemary L. Sherriff 

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Author Thomas T. Veblen 

Abstract A key issue in ecosystem management in the western U.S. is the determination of the historic range of 

variability of fire and its ecological significance prior to major land-use changes associated with Euro-American 

settlement. The present study relates spatial variation in historical fire occurrence to variation in abiotic and 

biotic predictors of fire frequency and severity across the elevational range of ponderosa pine in northern 

Colorado. Logistic regression was used to relate fire frequency to environmental predictors and to derive a 

probability surface for mapping purposes. These results indicate that less than 20% of the ponderosa pine zone 

had an historic fire regime (pre-1915) of relatively frequent fires (mean fire intervals, MFI,




DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(1994)0332.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0894-8763 


/1520-0450%281994%29033%3C0140%3AASTMFM%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments 


Author Kathy A. Hibbard 


Author Peter M. Cox 


Abstract Climate models used for climate change projections are on the threshold of including much greater biological 

and chemical detail than previous models. Today, standard climate models (referred to generically as 

atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, or AOGCMs) include components that simulate the coupled 

atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. Some modeling centers are now incorporating carbon cycle models into 

AOGCMs in a move toward an Earth system model (ESM) capability. Additional candidate components to 

include in ESMs are aerosols, chemistry, ice sheets, and dynamic vegetation. 

Publication EOS Transactions American Geophysical Union 

Volume 88 

Issue 20 

Pages 217, 219, 221 

Date 15 May 2007 

Journal Abbr EOS Trans. AGU 

DOI doi:10.1029/2007EO200002 

ISSN 0096-3941 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007EO200002.shtml 



A synoptic climatology for forest-fires in the NE US and future implications from GCM simulations 


Author Eugene S. Takle 

Author Daniel J. Bramer 

Author Warren E. Heilman 

Author Metinka R. Thompson 

Abstract We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and 

enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 

1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow 

situations throughout the year. Map patterns labeled extended-high, back-of-high, and pre-high were the most 

frequently occurring patterns that accompany forest fires in West Virginia and the nearby four-stare region. Of 

these, back-of-high accounted for a disproportionately large amount of fire-related damage. Examination of 

evaporation acid precipitation data showed that these three patterns and high-to-the-south patterns ail led to 

drying conditions and all other patterns led to moistening conditions. Surface-pressure fields generated by the 

Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model for simulations of the present (1xCO₂) climate and 2xCO₂ 

climate were studied to determine whether forest-fire potential would change under increased atmospheric CO₂. 

The analysis showed a tendency for increased frequency of drying in the NE US, but the results were not 

statistically significant. 

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Volume 4 

Issue 4 

Pages 217-224 



DOI 10.1071/WF9940217 

ISSN 1049-8001 

URL http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF9940217 



A synthesis of plant invasion effects on biodiversity across spatial scales 


Author Kristin I. Powell 

Author Jonathan M. Chase 

Author Tiffany M. Knight 

Abstract • Premise of the study: Invasive plant species are typically thought to pose a large threat to native biodiversity, 

and local-scale studies typically confirm this view. However, plant invaders rarely cause regional extirpations or 

global extinctions, causing some to suggest that invasive species’ influence on native biodiversity may not be so 

dire. We aim to synthesize the seemingly conflicting literature in plant invasion biology by evaluating the effects 

of invasive plant species across spatial scales. • Methods: We first conducted a meta-analysis on the effects of 

invasive plants on the species richness of invaded communities across a range of spatial extents. We then 

discuss studies that consider the role of invasive plants on regional spatial scales for which such meta-analyses 

are not possible. Finally, we develop a conceptual framework to synthesize the influence of invasive species 

across spatial scales by explicitly recognizing how invasive species alter species-occupancy distributions. • Key 

results: We found a negative relationship between the spatial extent of the study and the effect size of invasive 

plants on species richness. Our simulation models suggest that this result can occur if invaders, either 

proportionately or disproportionately, reduce the occupancy of common species to a greater degree than rare 

species. • Conclusions: Future studies should consider the influence of invaders on the abundance and 

occupancy-level changes in native species to inform how invasive plants will influence native species richness 

relationships across spatial scales. This approach will allow greater predictive ability for forecasting changes in 

biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic biological invasions and will inform invasive species management and 

restoration. 

Publication American Journal of Botany 

Volume 98 

Issue 3 

Pages 539-548 


Journal Abbr Am. J. Bot. 

DOI 10.3732/ajb.1000402 

ISSN 0002-9122 

URL http://www.amjbot.org/cgi/doi/10.3732/ajb.1000402 

Extra Keywords: biodiversity; biological invasions; common; effect size; invasive plants; meta-analysis; occupancy; 

rare; spatial scale; species richness. 



A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction 


Author James Hurrell 

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Author David Bader 

Author Thomas L. Delworth 

Author Ben Kirtman 

Author Bruce Wielicki 

Abstract There is a new perspective of a continuum of prediction problems, with a blurring of the distinction between 

short-term predictions and long-term climate projections. At the heart of this new perspective is the realization 

that all climate system predictions, regardless of time scale, share common processes and mechanisms; 

moreover, interactions across time and space scales are fundamental to the climate system itself. Further, just as 

seasonal-to-interannual predictions start from an estimate of the state of the climate system, there is a growing 

realization that decadal and longer-term climate predictions could be initialized with estimates of the current 

observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Even though the prediction problem 

itself is seamless, the best practical approach to it may be described as unified: models aimed at different time 

scales and phenomena may have large commonality but place emphasis on different aspects of the system. The 

potential benefits of this commonality are significant and include improved predictions on all time scales and 

stronger collaboration and shared knowledge, infrastructure, and technical capabilities among those in the 

weather and climate prediction communities. 

Publication Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 

Volume 90 

Issue 12 

Pages 1819-1832 


Journal Abbr BAMS 

DOI 10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1 

ISSN 0003-0007 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1 



A very inconvenient truth 


Author Charles H. Greene 

Author D. James Baker 

Author Daniel H. Miller 

Abstract Studies conducted after those that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 

Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) suggest that human society may be facing a very inconvenient truth—that 

emission reduction efforts alone are unlikely to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at levels low enough to 

prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Here, we discuss reasons why the IPCC 

process is prone to underestimating the threats of global climate change. We then review some of the critical 

policy-relevant scientific findings that have emerged since the release of the IPCC FAR. Finally, we discuss how 

these new findings fundamentally transform the debate on efforts needed to prevent dangerous changes to our 

climate system. It now appears that to avoid such changes, society will likely need to adopt a mixed strategy of 

reducing greenhouse gas emissions and employing geoengineering approaches that extract carbon dioxide from 

the atmosphere and/or reduce the level of incoming solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface. 

Publication Oceanography 

Volume 23 

Issue 1 

Pages 214–218 


Journal Abbr Oceanography 

ISSN 1042-8275 

URL http://www.doaj.org/doaj? 

func=abstract&… 

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Extra Keywords: climate change; geoengineering; anthropogenic interference; carbon dioxide; global warming; 

greenhouse gases. 



A world ecoregions map for resource reporting 


Author Robert G. Bailey 

Author Howard C. Hogg 

Abstract An international project is proposed to create a map showing the world subdivided into macroecosystem regions 

within each of which ecological conditions are relatively uniform but which show certain natural potentials and 

limitations. The map should tend to supplement the Dasmann-Udvardy system of biogeographical provinces, 

being of higher resolution and greater ecological relevance. The primary purpose of the map will be to serve as a 

reporting structure for information about global resources and environment, though it will be based largely on 

published information. Maps based on classification of climatic types, vegetation formations, and soil groups, 

will be synthesized and generalized to delineate the areas to be shown on the ecoregion map. Its delineations 

will be refined through consultations with local experts, and through the interpretation of low-resolution remotesensing 

imagery. The usefulness of the map is considered favourably in relation to national-level policy analysis, 

environmental monitoring, transfer of agricultural technology, compatibility with remote-sensing systems for 

monitoring environmental conditions, and agricultural activities, biomass estimation, macroreserve selection, 

and land management. 

Publication Environmental Conservation 

Volume 13 

Issue 3 

Pages 195-202 

Date Autumn 1986 

Journal Abbr Envir. Conserv. 

DOI 10.1017/S0376892900036237 

ISSN 0376-8929 

URL http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0376892900036237 



Aboriginal use of fire: Are there any “natural” plant communities? 

Notes: 


Author Gerald W. Williams 


Book Title Wilderness and Political Ecology: Aboriginal Influences and the Original State of Nature 

Place Salt Lake City, UT 

Publisher University of Utah Press 

Date September 2002 

Pages 179-214 

ISBN 0874807190, 9780874807196 

Short Title Aboriginal use of fire 

URL http://westinstenv.org/histwl/2010/03/04/aboriginal-use-of-fire-are-there-any-%E2%80%9Cnatural%E2%80 

%9D-plant-communities/ 



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Book - Table of Contents: 

1 

Acknowledgments 

Preface 

Prehistoric Extinctions: In the Shadow of Man 1 

2 

Evolutionary Theory, Conservation, and Human 

Environmental Impact 

Pre-Columbian Human Impact on California Vertebrates: 

28 

3 Evidence from Old Bones and Implications for 

Wilderness Policy 

44 

4 

Depletion of Prehistoric Pinniped Populations along the 

California and Oregon Coasts: Were Humans the Cause? 

Post-Columbian Wildlife Irruptions in California: 

72 

5 Implications for Cultural and Environmental 

Understanding 

The Role of Prehistoric Peoples in Shaping Ecosystems in 

111 

6 the Eastern United States: Implications for Restoration 

Ecology and Wilderness Management 

141 

7 

Aboriginal Use of Fire: Are There Any "Natural" Plant 

Communities? 

179 

8 

Are Ecosystems Structured from the Top-Down or 

Bottom-Up? A New Look at an Old Debate 

215 

9 

Afterword: False Gods, Ecological Myths, and Biological 

Reality 

238 

References Cited 263 

Contributors 339 

Citation: 

The following essay is a slight revision of a chapter to be printed in a volume edited by Charles E. Kay and Randy T. Simmons 

(eds.) Wilderness and Political Ecology: Aboriginal Land Management–Myths and Reality. Logan, UT: University of Utah Press. 2002. 

Gerald W. Williams. 2002. Aboriginal Use of Fire: Are There Any “Natural” Plant Communities? IN Wilderness and Political Ecology: 

Aboriginal Influences and the Original State of Nature, Charles E. Kay and Randy T. Simmons (eds.) University of Utah Press. 

Adaptation and risk management 


Author Roger N. Jones 

Author Benjamin L. Preston 

Abstract Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. 

Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national 

and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up, and 

prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice 

of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the 

degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The 

bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable 

for risk scoping and identification. A broad range of material from within and beyond the climate change 

literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of 

risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of 

the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be 

addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change 

to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk 

management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, 

professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face. 

Publication Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 

Pages n/a-n/a 

Date 2011 

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Journal Abbr WIREs Clim Change 

DOI 10.1002/wcc.97 

ISSN 17577780 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.97 


Date Added Tuesday, March 01, 2011 10:03:27 AM 


Attachments 

Jones and Preston_Adaptation and risk management_CC_2011.htm 

Jones and Preston_Adaptation and risk management_CC_2011.pdf 

Adapting to the impacts of climate change - America’s climate choices: Panel on adapting to the 

impacts of climate change 

Type Book 

Author National Research Council 

Abstract Much of the nation's experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is 

based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. This report from 

the America's Climate Choices suite of studies concludes that adaptation to climate change calls for a new 

paradigm--one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts, some well 

outside the realm of past experience. Adaptation is a process that requires actions from many decision-makers 

in federal, state, tribal, and local governments, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and 

community groups. However, current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the 

benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate impacts at a 

scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report calls for a national adaptation 

strategy to support and coordinate decentralized efforts. As part of this strategy, the federal government should 

provide technical and scientific resources that are currently lacking at the local or regional scale, incentives for 

local and state authorities to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, shared lessons learned, 

and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation. 


Publisher National Academies Press 

Date 2010 

# of Pages 325 p. 

ISBN 0-309-14592-9 

URL http://americasclimatechoices.org/paneladaptation.shtml 



Advancing the science of climate change : America's Climate Choices 

Type Book 


Abstract "Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for--and in many 

cases is already affecting--a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these 

conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite 

of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the 

scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by 

multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative 

explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through 

research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to 

decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being 

made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to 

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climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to 

coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to 

climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In 

addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate 

observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve 

linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs"--Publisher's 

description. 

Edition 1st edition 

Place Washington D.C. 


Date 2010 


ISBN 9780309145886, 0309145880 

URL http://americasclimatechoices.org/panelscience.shtml 



After the Ice Age: The return of life to glaciated North America 

Notes: 

Contents: 

Type Book 

Author Evelyn Christine Pielou 

Abstract Description: The fascinating story of how a harsh terrain that resembled modern Antarctica has been 

transformed gradually into the forests, grasslands, and wetlands we know today. "One of the best scientific 

books published in the last ten years."--Ottowa Journal "A valuable new synthesis of facts and ideas about 

climate, geography, and life during the past 20,000 years. More important, the book conveys an intimate 

appreciation of the rich variety of nature through time."--S. David Webb, Science 

Edition reprint, illustrated 

Place Chicago, IL 

Publisher University of Chicago Press 



ISBN 0226668126, 9780226668123 

Short Title After the ice age 

URL http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo3697245.html 



Part One: Preliminaries 

1. The Physical Setting 

The Changing Climate of the Last 20,000 Years 

The Dating Method 

The Ice Sheets 

Ice and Sea 

Ice and Fresh Water 

Ice and Atmosphere 

Ice-free Land: Refugia and Nunataks 

2. The Fossil Evidence 

Fossils 

Microfossils 

Pollen 

Sediment Cores and Pollen Diagrams 

Dating: The Radiocarbon Method 

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Dating by Volcanic Ash Layers 

3. Interpreting the Evidence 

Some of the Problems 

Interpreting Pollen Diagrams 

Interpreting Geographical Range Maps: Animals 

Interpreting Geographical Range Maps: Plants 

4. The Migration of Vegetation 

Shifting Zones of Vegetation 

The Starting Conditions 

Conditions in the Newly Deglaciated Land 

The Invasion by Plants 

The Renewal of Vegetation 

Ecological Inertia 

Photoperiodism 

Part Two: The Time of Maximum Ice 

5. Eighteen Thousand Years Ago: Life South of the Ice 

Large Mammals and Their Environments South of the Ice Sheets 

Human Life South of the Ice 

Plants South of the Ice Sheets 

6. The Coasts 

North America as an Extension of Asia 

The South Coast of Beringia 

The Western Edge of the Ice 

The East Coast Plains and Islands 

The East Coast Refugia 

7. Beringia and the Ice-free Corridor 

Beringia and Its Big Game 

Human Life in Beringia 

The Ice-free Corridor 

Refugia Near the Ice-free Corridor 

Part Three: The Melting of the Ice 

8. The Ice Begins to Melt 

South of the Ice: Tundra 

South of the Ice: Forest Parkland and Muskeg 

Stagnant Ice 

Superglacial and Ice-walled Lakes and Their Ecology 

9. The Great Proglacial Lakes 

Glacial Lakes Missoula and Columbia 

Migration from Bergingia 

Glacial Lakes Agassiz and McConnell 

The Precursors of the Great Lakes and Glacial Lake Ojibway 

10. The Rising Sea 

The Sundering of Beringia 

The Atlantic Shore 

The Atlantic Coastlands 

The champlain Sea 

The Tyrell Sea 

Part Four: The Pleistocene/Holocene Transition 

11. The End of an Epoch 

The End of the Pleistocene 

The Changing Forest 

The Prairie Grasslands 

Transition in the West: The Interior 

Transition in the West: The Coast 

Beringia at the Turn of the Epoch 

12. The Great Wave of Extinctions 

Extinction Waves: When, Where, and What 

The Prehistoric Overkill Hypothesis 

The Arguments against Overkill 

Changing Environment Theories 

Extinct Birds 

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Part Five: Our Present Epoch, The Holocene 

13. The Great Warmth 

Some Northward Shifts of Northern Limits 

The Hypsithermal at Sea 

The Hypsithermal in the Mountains 

Refugia from the Drought 

Human Life in the Hypsithermal 

14. The Neoglaciation 

The Spread of Muskeg 

Increased Rain in the Prairies 

The Shifting Ranges of Forest Tree Species 

The Neoglacial and the Northern Treeline 

Refugia Reestablished 

Respites in the Neoglaciation 

The Little Ice Age 

Epilogue 

Appendix 1: Names of Species: English and Latin 

Appendix 2: Names of Species: Latin and English 

Notes 

Index 

Agricultural origins and dispersals 

Type Book 

Author Carl O. Sauer 


Series Bowman Memorial Lectures. Ser. 2. 


Publisher The American Geographical Society, George Grady Press 

Date 1952 


URL http://www.archive.org/details/agriculturalorig033518mbp 

Loc. in Archive Osmania University 



Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior 


Author Hal E. Anderson 

Abstract Research Summary: This report presents photographic examples, tabulations, and a similarity chart to assist fire 

behavior officers, fuel management specialists, and other field personnel in selecting a fuel model appropriate 

for a specific field situation. Proper selection of a fuel model is a critical step in the mathematical modeling of 

fire behavior and fire danger rating. This guide will facilitate the selection of the proper fire behavior fuel model 

and will allow comparison with fire danger rating fuel models. The 13 fire behavior fuel models are presented in 

4 fuel groups: grasslands, shrublands, timber, and slash. Each group comprises three or more fuel models; two or 

more photographs illustrate field situations relevant to each fuel model. The 13 fire behavior fuel models are 

crossreferenced to the 20 fuel models of the National Fire Danger Rating System by means of a similarity chart. 

Fire behavior fuel models and fire danger rating fuel models, along with the fire-carrying features of the model 

and its physical characteristics, are described in detail. 

Report Number GTR-INT-122 

Report Type General Technical Report 


Institution U.S.Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 

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Notes: 

Citation: 


Pages 22 p. 


Extra Keywords: forest fuels; modeling; fire behavior. 


Modified Thursday, September 01, 2011 5:19:54 AM 

Anderson, Hal E. 1982. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-122. Ogden, Utah: 

U.S.Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 22p. 

Alaska’s changing fire regime - implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests 


Author Eric S. Kasischke 

Author David L. Verbyla 

Author T. Scott Rupp 


Author Karen A. Murphy 

Author Randi Jandt 

Author Jennifer L. Barnes 

Author Elizabeth E. Hoy 

Author Paul A. Duffy 

Author Monika Calef 

Author Merritt R. Turetsky 

Abstract A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska’s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 

000 ha·year–1 burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there 

was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an 

increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The 

fraction of area burned from human-ignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 

2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that 

occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past 

two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests 

occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce 

forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska’s fire regime, 

except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime 

changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska’s boreal forests and land and fire management are 

discussed. 


Volume 40 

Issue 7 

Pages 1313-1324 



DOI 10.1139/X10-098 

ISSN 1208-6037 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/X10-098 



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Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: A basin-wide analysis 


Author Daniel Nepstad 

Author Paul Lefebvre 

Author Urbano Lopes da Silva 

Author Javier Tomasella 

Author Peter Schlesinger 

Author Luiz Solorzano 

Author Paulo Moutinho 

Author David Ray 

Author Jose Guerreira Benito 

Abstract Severe drought in moist tropical forests provokes large carbon emissions by increasing forest flammability and 

tree mortality, and by suppressing tree growth. The frequency and severity of drought in the tropics may 

increase through stronger El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, global warming, and rainfall inhibition 

by land use change. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in moist tropical 

forests, and the complex relationships between patterns of drought and forest fire regimes, tree mortality, and 

productivity. We present a simple geographic information system soil water balance model, called RisQue 

(Risco de Queimada – Fire Risk) for the Amazon basin that we use to conduct an analysis of these patterns for 

1996–2001. RisQue features a map of maximum plant-available soil water (PAWmax) developed using 1565 

soil texture profiles and empirical relationships between soil texture and critical soil water parameters. PAW is 

depleted by monthly evapotranspiration (ET) fields estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and 

satellite-derived radiation inputs and recharged by monthly rain fields estimated from 266 meteorological 

stations. Modeled PAW to 10 m depth (PAW10 m) was similar to field measurements made in two Amazon 

forests. During the severe drought of 2001, PAW10 m fell to below 25% of PAWmax in 31% of the region's 

forests and fell below 50% PAWmax in half of the forests. Field measurements and experimental forest fires 

indicate that soil moisture depletion below 25% PAWmax corresponds to a reduction in leaf area index of 

approximately 25%, increasing forest flammability. Hence, approximately one-third of Amazon forests became 

susceptible to fire during the 2001 ENSO period. Field measurements also suggest that the ENSO drought of 

2001 reduced carbon storage by approximately 0.2 Pg relative to years without severe soil moisture deficits. 

RisQue is sensitive to spin-up time, rooting depth, and errors in ET estimates. Improvements in our ability to 

accurately model soil moisture content of Amazon forests will depend upon better understanding of forest 

rooting depths, which can extend to beyond 15 m. RisQue provides a tool for early detection of forest fire risk. 

Publication Global Change Biology 

Volume 10 

Issue 5 

Pages 704-717 

Date May 2004 

Journal Abbr Glob. Change Biol. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00772.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 

Short Title Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth 

URL http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111%2Fj.1529-8817.2003.00772.x 

Extra Keywords: evapotranspiration; fire; hydrology; NPP; rainforest; soil moisture; tropical; water balance. 



American forests : A history of resiliency and recovery 

Type Book 

Author Douglas W. MacCleery 


Series Forest History Society’s Issues Series 


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Place Durham N.C. 

Publisher U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service in cooperation with Forest History Society 



ISBN 9780890300480 

Short Title American forests 

URL http://www.foresthistory.org/publications/Issues/amforests.html 



America's ancient forests: From the ice age to the age of discovery 

Type Book 

Author Thomas M. Bonnicksen 



Place New York, Chichester, Brisbane, Toronto, Singapore, Weinheim 

Publisher John Wiley and Sons 



ISBN 0471136220, 9780471136224 

Short Title America's ancient forests 

URL http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471136220.html 



Notes: 

Table of Contents: 

PART ONE: THE MAKING OF AMERICA'S ANCIENT FORESTS. 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

The Great Cold. 

Glacial Ages. 

Climate and Ice. 

Land of the Great Cold. 

End of the Ice Age. 

Ice Age Forests. 

Life Near the Ice. 

The Spruce Forest. 

Western Forests. 

Southern Forests. 

Finding the Lost Prairies. 

Creatures of the Ice Age. 

The Birth of Modern Forests. 

Trees Begin to Move. 

Pioneer and Settler Trees. 

Spruce Migration. 

Trees Abandon the Great Plains. 

Trees Advance in the Midwest and East. 

Trees Advance in the West. 

The Great Drought. 

The Next Ice Age. 

Ancient People in a New World. 

First Footprint. 

Passage South. 

Setting the West. 

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The Way East. 

Trail to Florida. 

Journey to Another Continent. 

5. Taming a Wilderness. 

Mammoth Hunters. 

Ice Age Extinctions. 

The Holocene. 

Bison Hunters. 

Hunter-Gatherers. 

Decline and Return of the Bison. 

Settlement and the Seasonal Round. 

Harvesting the Forest. (Nourishment and Healing. Temporary and Portable Shelter. Plank Houses and Canoes.) 

6. Enhancing Nature's Bounty. 

Wild Gardens. 

Agriculture and Forests in the Southwest. (The Hohokam. The Anasazis.) 

Agriculture and Forests in the East. (Early Mound Builders. The Adena. The Hopewell. The Mississippians.) 

Warfare and Forests. 

Historical Times. 

7. Fire Masters. 

A World of Fire. (Hissing, Roaring Flames. Fire People. Country Very Smoky.) 

Their Fires are Left Burning. 

The Ominous Smoke Signal. 

Firing the Forests of Their Enemies. 

Fire Hunters. (Circles of Fire. Their Wings are Scorched. That Necessity May Drive Them. Green and Fair Pasturage. To Render Hunting Easier.) 

Just Set Your Teepee Up There. 

They Knew Where to Burn. (Little Hair (Pelillo). To Dry and Cook. Straight and Slender.) 

Burned Places in the Forest (Go-ley-day). (Keeping the Country Open. A Pleasant Meadow. Prairies and Open Grounds along the Coast. Little Knots 

of Deer. To Prepare the Ground.) 

They Cleared the Way with Fire. 

Because the Woods Were Not Burnt. 

PART TWO: FORESTS AT DISCOVERY. 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

Timeless Qualities of Ancient Forests. 

Patches. 

Succession. 

Shifting Mosaics. 

Mutual Dependence. 

The Spanish Explorer's Forests. 

Southern Pine Forests. 

Piñon-Juniper and Juniper Woodlands. 

Pacific Oak Woodlands. 

Valley Woodlands. 

Foothill Woodlands. 

Coastal Woodlands. 

Northern Woodlands. 

Coast Redwood Forest. 

Forests of the Colonies. 

Oak-Chestnut Forest. 

Eastern White Pine Forest. 

Beech-Maple Forest. 

Red Spruce--Fir and Balsam Fir Forests. 

Southern Red Spruce--Fir Forest. 

Northern Red Spruce--Fir Forest. 

High Mountain Balsam Fir Forest. 

Forests of the Fathers. 

White Spruce Forest. 

Great Lakes Pine Forests. 

Jack Pine Forest. 

Red and White Pine Forests. 

Oak-Hickory Forest. 

Oak Savannas. 

Bottomland and Protected Forests. 

Oak Woodlands. 

The Trapper's Forests. 

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Ponderosa Pine Forest. 

Lodgepole Pine Forest. 

Pacific Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) Forest. 

Giant Sequoia Forest. 

Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming 


Author Kevin Schaefer 

Author Tingjun Zhang 

Author Lori Bruhwiler 

Author Andrew P. Barrett 

Abstract The thaw and release of carbon currently frozen in permafrost will increase atmospheric CO₂ concentrations 

and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) on climate. We use 

surface weather from three global climate models based on the moderate warming, A1B Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario and the SiBCASA land surface model to estimate the strength and 

timing of the PCF and associated uncertainty. By 2200, we predict a 29–59% decrease in permafrost area and a 

53–97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost 

carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 ± 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for 

amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where 

SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a 

source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and 

decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel 

emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO₂ concentration. 

Publication Tellus B 

Volume 63 

Issue 2 

Pages 165–180 


Journal Abbr Tellus B 

DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x 

ISSN 02806509 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x 



Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability 


Author Carlos A. Sierra 

Author Mark E. Harmon 

Author Enrique Thomann 

Author Steven S. Perakis 

Author Hank W. Loescher 

Abstract Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feedbacks related to anthropogenically 

induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter 

decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes 

in temperature variability. Anthropogenic activities are likely to modify both the average state and the 

variability of the climatic system; therefore, the effects of future warming on decomposition should not only 

focus on trends in the average temperature, but also variability expressed as a change of the probability 

distribution of temperature. Using analytical and numerical analyses we tested common relationships between 

temperature and respiration and found that the variability of temperature plays an important role determining 

respiration rates of soil organic matter. Changes in temperature variability, without changes in the average 

temperature, can affect the amount of carbon released through respiration over the long-term. Furthermore, 

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simultaneous changes in the average and variance of temperature can either amplify or dampen the release of 

carbon through soil respiration as climate regimes change. These effects depend on the degree of convexity of 

the relationship between temperature and respiration and the magnitude of the change in temperature variance. 

A potential consequence of this effect of variability would be higher respiration in regions where both the mean 

and variance of temperature are expected to increase, such as in some low latitude regions; and lower amounts 

of respiration where the average temperature is expected to increase and the variance to decrease, such as in 

northern high latitudes. 

Publication Biogeosciences Discussions 

Volume 7 

Issue 6 

Pages 8979-9008 


Journal Abbr Biogeosciences Discuss. 

DOI 10.5194/bgd-7-8979-2010 

ISSN 1810-6285 

URL http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/7/8979/2010/ 



AMS Glossary of Meteorology 

Type Book 

Author Todd S. Glickman 

Abstract Description: Forty-one years ago, the AMS published the Glossary of Meteorology. Containing 7900 terms, 

more than 10,000 copies have been sold over four decades through five printings. It is a tribute to the editors of 

the first edition that it has withstood the test of time and continued to be among the leading reference sources in 

meteorology and related sciences. This is the electronic version of the second edition of the Glossary with more 

than 12,000 terms. Along with the print version it should be the authoritative source for definitions of 

meteorological terms for many years to come. 

Edition 2nd edition 

Place Boston, MA 

Publisher American Meteorological Society 



ISBN 9781878220349 

URL http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary 

Extra Book: http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/G/bo8670114.html 



An adaptive approach to planning and decision-making 


Author Gene Lessard 

Abstract A formal process of adaptive management will be required to maximize the benefits of any option for land and 

natural resource management and to achieve long-term objectives through implementation of ecosystem 

management. The process itself is straightforward and simple: new information is identified, evaluated, and a 

determination is made whether to adjust strategy or goals. While relatively straightforward, applying the concept 

of adaptive management to complex management strategies requires answers to several critical questions. What 

new information should compel an adjustment to the management strategy? What threshold should trigger this 

adjustment? Who decides when and how to make adjustments? What are the definitions and thresholds of 

acceptable results? Adaptive ecosystem management depends on a continually evolving understanding of causeand-effect 

relationships in both biological and social systems. Planning for and adapting to surprise will provide 

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an actionary rather than a reactionary basis for more informed decisions. 

Publication Landscape and Urban Planning 

Volume 40 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 81-87 


Journal Abbr Landscape Urban Plan 

DOI 10.1016/S0169-2046(97)00100-X 

ISSN 0169-2046 

URL http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S016920469700100X 

Extra Keywords: adaptive management; decision-making; assessment; scenario planning. 



An approach toward a rational classification of climate 


Author C. Warren Thornthwaite 


Publication Geographical review 

Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages 55–94 


Journal Abbr Geogr. Rev. 

ISSN 0016-7428 




An assessment of potential change in wildfire activity in the Russian boreal forest zone induced by 

climate warming during the twenty-first century 


Author Sergey Petrovich Malevsky-Malevich 

Author Elena K. Molkentin 

Author Ekaterina D. Nadyozhina 

Author Oksana B. Shklyarevich 

Abstract The problem of forest fires is very important for Russia. In this paper we consider this problem in the 

connection with the projection of significant climate change. An approach to determine the magnitude of 

change in wildfire risk in Russia under the influence of climate warming is discussed. Observations for the 

European part of Russia and for Siberia have been used in this analysis. A statistical correlation between 

drought indices calculated by use of monthly sums of temperature and precipitation and the frequency of fire 

danger was obtained for the forest zone of Russia. The change in fire danger potential was evaluated using 

temperature and precipitation monthly means at the nodes of a regular spatial grid. Climate change scenarios 

were obtained from Global Climate Models (GCM) ensemble projections. The maximum increases (about 

12–30%) of the number of days with fire danger conditions during the twenty-first century fire season were 

obtained for the southern forest zone boundary in both the European region of Russia and in Siberia. In the 

Baikal and Primoriye Regions, fire danger distributions in the twenty-first century are not projected to change 

significantly. 


Volume 86 

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Issue 3-4 

Pages 463-474 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9295-7 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10584-007-9295-7 




An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics 


Author James C. Zachos 

Author Gerald R. Dickens 

Author Richard E. Zeebe 

Abstract Past episodes of greenhouse warming provide insight into the coupling of climate and the carbon cycle and thus 

may help to predict the consequences of unabated carbon emissions in the future. 

Publication Nature 

Volume 451 

Issue 7176 

Pages 279–283 

Date 17 January 2008 

Journal Abbr Nature 

DOI 10.1038/nature06588 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06588 



An ecological history of the Great Lakes forest of Michigan 


Author Gordon G. Whitney 

Abstract Summary: (1) The historical development, i.e. changing species composition and the areal extent, of the 

vegetation of the High Plains region of Michigan is traced with the use of printed and manuscript materials and 

contemporary forest survey records. (2) The classic pre-settlement Great Lakes pine forest occupied the rolling 

upland areas and was conditioned to fires at 130-260 year intervals. Fires were much more frequent on the drier 

outwash sands of the jack pine plains and openings and almost non-existent on the moist hemlock-white 

pine-northern hardwoods forests of the uplands and the swamp conifer forests of the lowlands. (3) Selective 

logging of the white pine and later the hemlock and the better hardwoods converted the hemlock-white 

pine-northern hardwoods type to sugar maple. Waves of fires, following the logging in rapid succession, upset 

the natural equilibrium of the Great Lakes forest. The ignition of the remaining debris or the slash destroyed the 

remaining seed trees and the seedling pine in the mixed pine type. The result was a poorly stocked forest of oak 

sprouts and aspen suckers. Oak and aspen had formerly played a relatively subordinate role in the 

pre-settlement forest. (4) The cessation of fires in 1920-40 allowed the maturation of the oak, the aspen, and the 

jack pine and set the stage for the new pulp-oriented industrial forest of the 1950s. 

Publication The Journal of Ecology 

Volume 75 

Issue 3 

Pages 667–684 

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Journal Abbr J. Ecol. 

ISSN 0022-0477 



Modified Saturday, August 27, 2011 1:01:42 AM 

An environmental narrative of inland northwest United States forests, 1800–2000 


Author Paul F. Hessburg 

Author James K. Agee 

Abstract Fire was arguably the most important forest and rangeland disturbance process in the Inland Northwest United 

States for millennia. Prior to the Lewis and Clark expedition, fire regimes ranged from high severity with return 

intervals of one to five centuries, to low severity with fire-free periods lasting three decades or less. 

Indoamerican burning contributed to the fire ecology of grasslands and lower and mid-montane dry forests, 

especially where ponderosa pine was the dominant overstory species, but the extent of this contribution is 

difficult to quantify. Two centuries of settlement, exploitation, management, and climate variation have 

transformed the fire regimes, vegetation and fuel patterns, and overall functionality of these forests. We present 

a narrative that portrays conditions beginning at the first contact of Euro-American settlers with Indoamericans 

of the region and extending to the present. Due in part to its geographic isolation, the Inland Northwest was 

among the last regions to be discovered by Euro-Americans. In 200 years the region has undergone fur trapping 

and trading, sheep, cattle, and horse grazing, timber harvesting, mining, road construction, native grassland 

conversion to agricultural production, urban and rural area development, fire prevention, and fire suppression. 

We highlight key changes to forest landscape patterns and processes that occurred under these combined 

influences, discuss implications of the changes, and progress towards restoring sustainability. An adaptive 

ecosystem management model has been adopted by public land management agencies to remedy current 

conditions. Ecosystem management is a relatively new concept that emphasizes the integrity and sustainability 

of land systems rather than outputs from the land. Adaptive management emphasizes the twin notions that 

incomplete knowledge and high degrees of risk and uncertainty about earth and climate systems will always 

limit land and resource planning and management decisions, and that management is chiefly a learning and 

adapting process. We discuss current issues and future options associated with ecosystem management, 

including the low likelihood of social consensus concerning desired outcomes, the lack of integrated planning, 

analysis, and decision support tools, and mismatches between existing land management planning processes, 

Congressional appropriations, and complex management and restoration problems. 

Publication Forest Ecology and Management 

Volume 178 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 23–59 

Date 3 June 2003 

Journal Abbr Forest Ecol. Manag. 

DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00052-5 

ISSN 0378-1127 

URL http://www.cfr.washington.edu/classes.esc.401/InlandPNWForestHistory.pdf 

Archive http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112703000525 

Extra Keywords: landscape change; human settlement; management history; environmental narrative; inland 

northwest; fire regimes; vegetation patterns; adaptive ecosystem management. 



An evaluation of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning-and human-caused forest fires in Alberta, 

Canada, 1980–2007 


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Author Yonghe Wang 

Author Kerry R. Anderson 

Abstract We used the K-function and kernel estimation methods to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of ignition 

locations of lightning- and human-caused forest fires in Alberta, Canada. Although both of these fire types have 

spatial patterns of cluster distribution, quantitative measures for evaluating the patterns in the province are 

lacking. Our results revealed annual differences in the spatial patterns between the two fire types, whereby fires 

caused by humans tended to be more clustered and had more complex spatial patterns than those caused by 

lightning. Spatial interactions of cluster and inhibition existed between the two fire types. Human-caused fires in 

the period 2003–07 were highly concentrated in the southern parts of the province, indicating the existence of 

an interaction between space and time. Kernel analysis confirmed the observation that in northern Alberta, 

lightning-caused fires were more likely to occur than human-caused fires; the opposite was true in southern 

Alberta. This study provided useful spatial information that is not obvious or cannot be inferred from visual 

examination of raw data. Such quantitative knowledge could lead to the development of fire-response and 

fire-suppression strategies appropriate to specific regions within the province. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1059–1072 



DOI 10.1071/WF09085 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF09085 

Extra Keywords: Alberta Wildfire Management Areas; K-function; kernel estimation; spatial intensity; spatial point 

patterns. 



An overview of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System - Quantifying, classifying, and creating 

fuelbeds for resource planning 


Author Roger D. Ottmar 

Author David V. Sandberg 

Author Cynthia L. Riccardi 

Author Susan J. Prichard 

Abstract We present an overview of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS), a tool that enables land 

managers, regulators, and scientists to create and catalogue fuelbeds and to classify those fuelbeds for their 

capacity to support fire and consume fuels. The fuelbed characteristics and fire classification from this tool will 

provide inputs for current and future sophisticated models for the quantification of fire behavior, fire effects, 

and carbon accounting and enable assessment of fuel treatment effectiveness. The system was designed from 

requirements of land managers, scientists and policy makers gathered through six regional workshops. The 

FCCS contains a set of fuelbeds representing the United States that were compiled from scientific literature, 

fuels photo series, fuels data sets, and expert opinion. The system enables modification and enhancement of 

these fuelbeds to represent a particular scale of interest. The FCCS then reports assigned and calculated fuel 

characteristics for each existing fuelbed stratum including the canopy, shrubs, nonwoody, woody, litter/lichen 

/moss, and duff. Finally, the system classifies each fuelbed by calculating fire potentials that provide an index of 

the intrinsic capacity of each fuelbed to support surface fire behavior, support crown fire, and provide fuels for 

flaming, smoldering, and residual consumption. The FCCS outputs are being used in a national wildland fire 

emissions inventory and in the development of fuelbed, fire hazard, and treatment effectiveness maps on several 

national forests. Although the FCCS was built for the United States, the conceptual framework is applicable 

worldwide. 


Volume 37 

Issue 12 

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Pages 2383–2393 



DOI 10.1139/X07-077 

ISSN 0045-5067 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full/10.1139/X07-077 



An unusual oak savanna in northeastern Wisconsin: The effect of Indian-caused fire 


Author Cheryl H. Dorney 

Author John R. Dorney 

Abstract Evaluation of the impact of native Americans on vegetation has largely relied on historical accounts of fire use. 

Remnant vegetation communities may also provide evidence. A large (49 km²), disjunct oak savanna in 

northeastern Wisconsin was recorded by the original public land survey in 1834. Surrounding vegetation was 

mixed conifer-hardwood forest typical of northern Wisconsin. The oak savanna was not associated with unusual 

soil, topographic or climatic conditions of the area but instead was associated with Potawatomi and Winnebago 

Indian agricultural villages. A remnant woodlot (89 ha) is still dominated by Quercus alba but the canopy has 

closed and the stand has apparently been invaded by Carya ovata. This pre-European settlement oak savanna is 

strong evidence that native Americans influenced vegetation through fire in this region. 

Publication American Midland Naturalist 

Volume 122 

Issue 1 

Pages 103-113 



DOI 10.2307/2425687 

ISSN 1938-4238 

Short Title An Unusual Oak Savanna in Northeastern Wisconsin 




Analgzing long-term changes in vegetation with geographic information system and remotely sensed 

data 


Author Louis R. Iverson 

Author Paul G. Risser 

Abstract Geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques are powerful tools in the analysis of long-term 

changes in vegetation and land use, especially because spatial information from two or more time intervals can 

be compared more readily than by manual methods. A primary restriction is the paucity of data that has been 

digitized from earlier periods. The Illinois State Geographic Information System has a number of automated data 

sets containing land-use information, including original land survey plat maps that show the boundaries of 

forests, prairies, and wetlands as they existed prior to European colonization in the early 1800s. More recent 

data include the United States Forest Service inventories of 1948, 1962, and 1985; the United States Geological 

Survey Land Use Data Analysis; National High Altitude Program photographs of vegetation; and Landsat MSS 

and TM information. These data can be used to compare vegetation patterns and changes in land use over time 

and to suggest factors that may have caused or influenced these variations. Profound changes have occurred in 

the Illinois landscape since European settlement, primarily because of conversion to agricultural use; in certain 

parts of the state, however, urbanization has been the major factor contributing to changes. 

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Publication Advances in Space Research 

Volume 7 

Issue 11 

Pages 183–194 

Date 1987 

Journal Abbr Adv. Space Res. 

DOI 10.1016/0273-1177(87)90311-5 

ISSN 0273-1177 




Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region of Alaska 



Author David Williams 

Author Donald Barry 

Abstract Analyses of the patterns of fire in Alaska were carried out using three different data sets, including a large-fire 

database dating back to 1950. Analyses of annual area burned statistics illustrate the episodic nature of fire in 

Alaska, with most of the area burning during a limited number of high fire years. Over the past 50 years, high 

fire years occurred once every 4 years. Seasonal fire statistics indicated that high fire years consist of larger fire 

events that occur later in the growing season. On a decadal basis, average annual area burned has varied little 

between the 1960s and 1990s. Using a geographic information system (GIS), the spatial distribution of fires 

(aggregated by ecoregions) was compared with topographic, vegetation cover, and climate features of Alaska. 

The use of topographic data allows for a more realistic determination of fire cycle by eliminating areas where 

fires do not occur due to lack of vegetation above the treeline. Geographic analyses show that growing season 

temperature, precipitation, lightning strike frequency, elevation, aspect, and the level of forest cover interact in 

a complex fashion to control fire frequency. 


Volume 11 

Issue 2 

Pages 131-144 



DOI 10.1071/WF02023 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: fire map; fire history; spatial analysis. 



Analyzing extreme disturbance events: Fire in Los Padres National Forest 


Author Max A. Moritz 

Abstract Extreme disturbance events may strongly influence the structure and functioning of many ecosystems, 

particularly those in which large, infrequent events are the defining forces within the region. This paper 

introduces the extremal fire regime (i.e., the time series of the largest fire per year) and the assumptions implicit 

in its analysis. I describe the statistics of extremes and demonstrate their application to the fire regime of Los 

Padres National Forest, California, to compare two regions (i.e., Main and Monterey divisions), to test for a shift 

in fire regime due to fire suppression, and to examine climatic events as a forcing mechanism for large fires. 

Despite their similarity and proximity, the Main Division exhibited a much higher frequency of large fires (and 

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shorter return time) compared to the Monterey Division. Comparison of time periods 1911–1950 and 

1951–1991 indicated that fire suppression had no effect on the distribution of very large fires in the Main 

Division, although the frequency of fires smaller than ~4000 ha declined. Comparing distributions of an index 

for severity of Santa Ana conditions (i.e., characterized by hot, dry winds) and extreme fire events in the Main 

Division indicated a convergence of distributions with increasing event size. The distribution of fire events larger 

than ~4000 ha appears to be coupled with that of severe Santa Ana conditions, suggesting a strong climatic 

forcing for extreme fires and a threshold for the transition from small- to large-fire dynamics. Results indicate 

the usefulness of extremal fire regime analysis for comparisons over space and time and for examining a 

potential forcing mechanism. This approach can be applied to any disturbance regime in which large events play 

an important role, providing ecologists and land managers with a useful tool for understanding and predicting 

dynamics of extreme disturbance events. 


Volume 7 

Issue 4 

Pages 1252–1262 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[1252:AEDEFI]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

Short Title Analyzing extreme disturbance events 


Extra Keywords: climate; disturbance; extremal fire regime; fire size; landscape ecology; Los Padres National Forest; 

statistics of extremes. 



Annual and decadal climate forcing of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA 


Author Emily K. Heyerdahl 

Author Linda B. Brubaker 


Abstract Anticipating the consequences of climatic change for fire requires understanding of the causes of variation in 

historical fire regimes. We assessed the influence of annual and decadal variation in climate on fire regimes of 

ponderosa pine-dominated forests in eastern Oregon and Washington using existing, annually dated tree-ring 

reconstructions (1687–1994). In four watersheds, we compared the extent of low-severity fires (total area 

burned each year) to precipitation and the Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of variation in El 

Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects weather in this region. At the annual scale, large fires burned 

during dry years and El Niño years (low SOI) in all watersheds while small fires burned regardless of variation in 

these climate parameters. Large fires also burned during relatively wet years and La Niña years (high SOI) in 

one watershed, indicating that local factors can override regional climate controls in some locations. Climate 

from previous years did not influence current year's fire extent. The influence of ENSO on fire regimes in this 

region has not previously been demonstrated at these multicentury, regional scales. At the decadal scale, fire 

extent varied with precipitation, perhaps in response to variation in such climate features as the Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation. Several decades of low fire extent in the watersheds during the early 1800s was synchronous with a 

lack of fire at other sites in North and South America, probably in response to a change in the global climate 

that included a lessening in the frequency and/or intensity of ENSO events. 


Volume 12 

Issue 5 

Pages 597-604 



DOI 10.1191/0959683602hl570rp 

ISSN 1477-0911 

49 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


URL http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/12/5/597 

Extra Keywords: fire history; dendrochronology; climate; fire scars; El Niño-Southern Oscillation; Pacific Northwest 

USA. 



Anthropogenic reduction of Santa Ana winds 

Type Conference Paper 

Author Mimi Hughes 

Author Alex Hall 

Author Jinwon Kim 

Abstract The frequency of Santa Ana wind events is investigated within a high-resolution downscaling of the European 

Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-40 reanalysis data to 6-kilometer resolution over Southern 

California. In this climate reconstruction, the number of Santa Ana days per winter season declines significantly 

over the 44-year reanalysis period, resulting in over 30 percent fewer events per year over the final decade of 

the reconstruction (1991–2001) compared to the first decade (1959–1969). This study investigates this signal 

further in late-twentieth and mid-twenty-first century realizations of the National Center for Atmospheric 

Research Community Climate System Model, version 3.0, global climate change scenario run downscaled to a 

12-kilometer resolution over California. The reduction in events per year in the mid-twenty-first century 

compared with the late-twentieth century is similar to that seen in the ERA-40 downscaling, suggesting the 

cause of the decrease is a change in the climate due to anthropogenic forcing. A regression model is used to 

reproduce the Santa Ana time series based on two previously documented forcing mechanisms: synopticallyforced 

strong offshore winds at the mountain tops (which transport offshore momentum to the surface), and a 

local desert-ocean temperature gradient causing katabatic-like winds as the cold desert air pours down the 

coastal topography. Both past and future climate simulations show a large reduction in the contribution of the 

local thermodynamic forcing. This reduction is due to the differential warming that occurs during transient 

climate change conditions, with more warming in the desert interior than over the ocean. Thus the mechanism 

responsible for the decrease in Santa Ana frequency originates from a well-known aspect of the climate 

response to increasing greenhouse gases, but cannot be understood or simulated without mesoscale atmospheric 

dynamics. 


Proceedings Title Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union 2008 Fall Meeting 

Conference Name American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 15-19 December 2008 

Place Los Angeles, CA 

Publisher California Energy Commission, California Climate Change Center 

Pages 29 p. 

URL http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC22A..05H 

Archive http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-015/CEC-500-2009-015-F.PDF 

Extra Keywords: regional climate; climate change; Santa Ana winds; fire weather; Southern California. 



Application of economic techniques to fire management - A status review and evaluation 


Author Julie K. Gorte 

Author Ross W. Gorte 


Report Number GTR lNT-53 



Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station 

50 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Notes: 

Date 1979 

Pages 26 p. 


Extra Keywords: economics; fire management; benefit/cost analysis; damage appraisal. 



Citation: 

Gorte, Julie K.; Gorte, Ross W. 1979. Application of economic techniques to fire management - A status review and evaluation. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-53. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. 26 p. 

Applied historical ecology: Using the past to manage for the future 


Author Thomas W. Swetnam 

Author Craig D. Allen 

Author Julio L. Betancourt 

Abstract Applied historical ecology is the use of historical knowledge in the management of ecosystems. Historical 

perspectives increase our understanding of the dynamic nature of landscapes and provide a frame of reference 

for assessing modern patterns and processes. Historical records, however, are often too brief or fragmentary to 

be useful, or they are not obtainable for the process or structure of interest. Even where long historical time 

series can be assembled, selection of appropriate reference conditions may be complicated by the past 

influence of humans and the many potential reference conditions encompassed by nonequilibrium dynamics. 

These complications, however, do not lessen the value of history; rather they underscore the need for multiple, 

comparative histories from many locations for evaluating both cultural and natural causes of variability, as well 

as for characterizing the overall dynamical properties of ecosystems. Historical knowledge may not simplify the 

task of setting management goals and making decisions, but 20th century trends, such as increasingly severe 

wildfires, suggest that disregarding history can be perilous. We describe examples from our research in the 

southwestern United States to illustrate some of the values and limitations of applied historical ecology. 

Paleoecological data from packrat middens and other natural archives have been useful for defining baseline 

conditions of vegetation communities, determining histories and rates of species range expansions and 

contractions, and discriminating between natural and cultural causes of environmental change. We describe a 

montane grassland restoration project in northern New Mexico that was justified and guided by an historical 

sequence of aerial photographs showing progressive tree invasion during the 20th century. Likewise, fire scar 

chronologies have been widely used to justify and guide fuel reduction and natural fire reintroduction in forests. 

A southwestern network of fire histories illustrates the power of aggregating historical time series across spatial 

scales. Regional fire patterns evident in these aggregations point to the key role of interannual lags in responses 

of fuels and fire regimes to the El Ninio-Southern Oscillation (wet/dry cycles), with important implications for 

long-range fire hazard forecasting. These examples of applied historical ecology emphasize that detection and 

explanation of historical trends and variability are essential to informed management. 


Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 1189–1206 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1189:AHEUTP]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

Short Title Applied historical ecology 


Extra Keywords: climate change; disturbance; fire history; historical ecology; packrat middens; paleoecology; range 

of natural variation; repeat photography; restoration; southwestern United States; tree rings; vegetation change. 


51 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Arctic climate impact assessment: Scientific report 

Notes: 

Contributors: 

Type Book 

Author Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ACIA 

Abstract The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 

years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic 

changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world 

through increased global warming and rising sea levels. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was prepared by an 

international team of over 300 scientists, experts, and knowledgeable members of indigenous communities. The 

report has been thoroughly researched, is fully referenced, and provides the first comprehensive evaluation of 

arctic climate change, changes in ultraviolet radiation and their impacts for the region and for the world. It is 

illustrated in full color throughout. The results provided the scientific foundations for the ACIA synthesis report 

- Impacts of a Warming Arctic - published by Cambridge University Press in 2004. 

Place Cambridge, United Kingdom 

Publisher Cambridge University Press 

Date 2005 


ISBN 0521865093, 9780521865098 

URL http://amap.no/acia/ 

Extra http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ 



Over 300 contributing authors. Chapter lead authors: Jim Berner, Terry V. Callaghan, Shari Fox, Christopher Furgal, Alf Håkon Hoel, 

Henry Huntington, Arne Instanes, Glenn P. Juday, Erland Källén, Vladimir M. Kattsov, David R. Klein, Harald Loeng, Marybeth Long 

Martello, Gordon McBean, James J. McCarthy, Mark Nuttall, Terry D. Prowse, James D. Reist, Amy Stevermer, Aapo Tanskanen, 

Michael B. Usher, Hjálmar Vilhjálmsson, John E. Walsh, Betsy Weatherhead, Gunter Weller, Frederick J. Wrona 

Arctic ecology: Tundra's burning 


Author Jane Qiu 



Volume 461 

Issue 7260 

Pages 34-36 

Date 3 September 2009 


DOI 10.1038/461034a 

ISSN 1476-4687 

Short Title Arctic ecology 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/461034a 



52 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Are we successfully adapting science to climate change? 


Author Kristen Averyt 



Volume 91 

Issue 6 

Pages 723-726 



DOI 10.1175/2010BAMS2906.1 

ISSN 0003-0007 




Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a 

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach 


Author Michael S. Balshi 


Author Paul Duffy 

Author Mike Flannigan 

Author John Walsh 

Author Jerry Melillo 

Abstract Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and 

function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In 

this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future 

changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships 

between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to 

estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude x longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression 

Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the 

western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in 

areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the 

scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in 

annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor 

across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the 

models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial 

dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center 

CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western 

Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 

2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve 

the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating 

additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for 

interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. 


Volume 15 

Issue 3 

Pages 578-600 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x 

53 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


ISSN 1365-2486 


Extra Keywords: boreal forest; climate change; fire; future area burned; Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. 



Assessing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation 


Author Jake F. Weltzin 

Author Michael E. Loik 

Author Susanne Schwinning 

Author David G. Williams 

Author Philip A. Fay 

Author Brent M. Haddad 

Author John Harte 

Author Travis E. Huxman 

Author Alan K. Knapp 

Author Guanghui Lin 

Author William T. Pockman 

Author M. Rebecca Shaw 

Author Eric E. Small 

Author Melinda D. Smith 

Author Stanley D. Smith 

Author David T. Tissue 

Author John C. Zak 

Abstract Changes in Earth’s surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are expected 

to affect global and regional precipitation regimes. Interactions between changing precipitation regimes and 

other aspects of global change are likely to affect natural and managed terrestrial ecosystems as well as human 

society. Although much recent research has focused on assessing the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to rising 

carbon dioxide or temperature, relatively little research has focused on understanding how ecosystems respond 

to changes in precipitation regimes. Here we review predicted changes in global and regional precipitation 

regimes, outline the consequences of precipitation change for natural ecosystems and human activities, and 

discuss approaches to improving understanding of ecosystem responses to changing precipitation. Further, we 

introduce the Precipitation and Ecosystem Change Research Network (PrecipNet), a new interdisciplinary 

research network assembled to encourage and foster communication and collaboration across research groups 

with common interests in the impacts of global change on precipitation regimes, ecosystem structure and 

function, and the human enterprise. 


Volume 53 

Issue 10 

Pages 941–952 



DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0941:ATROTE]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0006-3568 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1641/0006-3568%282003%29053%5B0941%3AATROTE%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: global change; community; ecosystem; precipitation; soil moisture. 



54 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability 

Type Book 

Author National Academy of Sciences 

Abstract More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan 

agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, 

current forecast systems have limited ability on these timescales. Models for such climate forecasts must take 

into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be 

difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about 

the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding 

of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, 

this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated. 


Publisher The National Academies Press 

Date 2010 


ISBN 0309151848 

URL http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12878.html 



Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States 


Author Steven W. Hostetler 


Author Justin O. Holman 

Abstract Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent 

climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). 

The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing 

challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the 

western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time 

scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and 

monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate 

data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer 

fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of 

a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 

subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to 

high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between 

wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing 

near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West. 

Report Number SIR2006-5139 

Report Type Scientific Investigations Report 

Series Title US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 

Place Reston, Virginia 

Institution U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey 

Date 2006 

Pages 74 p. 

URL http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2006/5139/ 



Atmospheric budget of primary biological aerosol particles from fungal spores 

55 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Author Colette L. Heald 

Author Dominick V. Spracklen 

Abstract The contribution of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) to the global budget of organic aerosol is poorly 

understood. Concentrations of mannitol, a biotracer for fungal spores, are used here to constrain the first global 

model (GEOS-Chem) simulation of PBAP from fungi. Emissions are driven by leaf area index and atmospheric 

water vapor concentrations and are empirically optimized based on the geographical and seasonal variability of 

observed mannitol concentrations. Optimized global emissions total 28 Tg yr⁻¹, with 25% of that total emitted as 

fine mode (PM₂̦₅) aerosol. Fungal spores contribute 23% of total primary emissions of organic aerosol, or 7% of 

the fine-mode source. Annual mean simulated surface concentrations of PBAP over vegetated regions range 

from 0.1–0.7 µgm⁻³ (PM₂̦₅) and 0.4–3.0 µgm⁻³ (PM₁₀), with the highest concentrations in the tropics, where 

PBAP may be the dominant source of organic aerosol. Further validation is required to reduce the substantial 

uncertainties on this budget. 


Volume 36 

Issue 9 

Pages L09806 (5 p.) 

Date May 2009 


DOI 10.1029/2009GL037493 

ISSN 0094–8276 

URL http://europa.agu.org/? 

uri=/journals/gl/gl0909/2009GL037493/2009GL037493.xml&… 

Extra Keywords: PBAP; fungal spores; mannitol. 



Atmospheric carbon dioxide record from Mauna Loa 

Type Web Page 

Author R. F. Keeling 

Author S. C. Piper 

Author A. F. Bollenbacher 

Author J. S. Walker 


Website Title CDIAC: Trends - CO₂ - SIO Air Sampling Network 

Date 2010 

URL http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html 

Rights Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center 

Extra DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/atg.035 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Keeling, R.F., S.C. Piper, A.F. Bollenbacher and J.S. Walker. 2009. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling 

network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National 

Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/atg.035 

56 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 


Author Charles D. Keeling 

Author Robert B. Bacastow 

Author Arnold E. Bainbridge 

Author Carl A. Ekdahl 

Author Peter R. Guenther 

Author Lee S. Waterman 

Author John F. S. Chin 

Abstract The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii is reported for eight years 

(1964-1971) of a long term program to document the effects of the combustion of coal, petroleum, and natural 

gas on the distribution of CO₂, in the atmosphere. The new data, when combined with earlier data, indicate that 

the annual average CO₂, concentration rose 3.4 % between 1959 and 1971. The rate of rise, however, has not 

been steady. In the mid-1960's it declined. Recently it has accelerated. Similar changes in rate have been 

observed at the South Pole and are evidently a global phenomenon. 

Publication Tellus 

Volume 28 

Issue 6 

Pages 538-551 


Journal Abbr Tellus 

DOI 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x 

ISSN 0040-2826 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x 



Atmospheric CO₂: Principal control knob governing Earth's temperature 


Author Andrew A. Lacis 

Author Gavin A. Schmidt 

Author David Rind 

Author Reto A. Ruedy 

Abstract Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the single most important climate-relevant 

greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO₂, like ozone, N₂O, CH₄ and chlorofluorocarbons, 

does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor 

can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse 

effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric 

water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. 

Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO₂ and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial 

greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state. 


Volume 330 

Issue 6002 

Pages 356-359 

Date 15 October 2010 

DOI 10.1126/science.1190653 

ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online) 

Short Title Atmospheric CO2 


57 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM




Atmospheric science: Enigma of the recent methane budget 


Author Martin Heimann 

Abstract The previously increasing atmospheric methane concentration has inexplicably stalled over the past three 

decades. This may be due to a fall in fossil-fuel emissions or to farming practices that are curtailing microbial 

sources. 


Volume 476 

Issue 7359 

Pages 157-158 



DOI 10.1038/476157a 

ISSN 0028-0836 

Short Title Atmospheric science 




Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United 

States 


Author Ze'ev Gedalof 

Author David L. Peterson 

Author Nathan J. Mantua 

Abstract Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in forests of the American Northwest. Historical fire suppression 

efforts have contributed to an accumulation of fuels in many Northwestern forests and may result in more 

frequent and/or more severe wildfire events. Here we investigate the extent to which atmospheric and climatic 

variability may contribute to variability in annual area burned on 20 National Forests in Washington, Oregon, 

and Idaho. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to identify coherent patterns in area burned 

by wildfire in the Pacific Northwest. Anomaly fields of 500-hPa height were regressed onto the resulting 

principal-component time series to identify the patterns in atmospheric circulation that are associated with 

variability in area burned by wildfire. Additionally, cross-correlation functions were calculated for the Palmer 

drought severity index (PDSI) over the year preceding the wildfire season. Parallel analyses based on 

superposed epoch analysis focused only on the extreme fire years (both large and small) to discriminate the 

controls on extreme years from the linear responses identified in the regression analyses. Four distinct patterns 

in area burned were identified, each associated with distinct climatic processes. Extreme wildfire years are 

forced at least in part by antecedent drought and summertime blocking in the 500-hPa height field. However 

the response to these forcings is modulated by the ecology of the dominant forest. In more mesic forest types 

antecedent drought is a necessary precondition for forests to burn, but it is not a good predictor of area burned 

due to the rarity of subsequent ignition. At especially dry locations, summertime blocking events can lead to 

increases in area burned even in the absence of antecedent drought. At particularly xeric locations summertime 

cyclones can also lead to increased area burned, probably due to dry lightning storms that bring ignition and 

strong winds but little precipitation. These results suggest that fuels treatments alone may not be effective at 

reducing area burned under extreme climatic conditions and furthermore that anthropogenic climate change 

may have important implications for forest management. 


Volume 15 

Issue 1 

58 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Pages 154–174 



DOI 10.1890/03-5116 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: climatic variability empirical; function analysis; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Pacific Northwest; 

top-down controls; wildfire. 



Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect 



Author Reto A. Ruedy 

Author Ron L. Miller 

Author Andy A. Lacis 

Abstract The relative contributions of atmospheric long-wave absorbers to the present-day global greenhouse effect are 

among the most misquoted statistics in public discussions of climate change. Much of the interest in these values 

is however due to an implicit assumption that these contributions are directly relevant for the question of 

climate sensitivity. Motivated by the need for a clear reference for this issue, we review the existing literature 

and use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE radiation module to provide an overview of the role of 

each absorber at the present-day and under doubled CO₂ . With a straightforward scheme for allocating 

overlaps, we find that water vapor is the dominant contributor (~50% of the effect), followed by clouds (~25%) 

and then CO₂ with ~20%. All other absorbers play only minor roles. In a doubled CO₂ scenario, this allocation 

is essentially unchanged, even though the magnitude of the total greenhouse effect is significantly larger than 

the initial radiative forcing, underscoring the importance of feedbacks from water vapor and clouds to climate 

sensitivity. 

Publication Journal of Geophysical Research 

Volume 115 

Issue 20 

Pages D20106 (6 p.) 


Journal Abbr J. Geophys. Res. 

DOI 10.1029/2010JD014287 

ISSN 0148-0227 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD014287.shtml 

Extra Keywords: greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide; water vapor. 



Background paper: Historical overview of the southern forest landscape and associated resources 

(Chapter 24) 


Author Wayne D. Carroll 

Author Peter R. Kapeluck 

Author Richard A. Harper 

Author David H. Van Lear 


59 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Report Number SRS-53 


Series Title Southern forest resource assessment 

Place Asheville, NC 

Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station 

Date 2002 

Pages 583–605 

Short Title Background history 

URL http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/sustain/report/histry/histry.htm 

Archive http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/sustain/report/index.htm 

Extra Keywords: conservation; forest sustainability; integrated assessment. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

In: Wear, David N.; Greis, John G., eds. 2002. Southern forest resource 

assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-53. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 635 p. 

Barotropic instability of Rossby wave motion 


Author Edward N. Lorenz 

Abstract Zonal flow resembling zonally averaged tropospheric motion in middle latitudes is usually barotropically stable, 

but zonal flow together with superposed neutral Rossby waves may be unstable with respect to further 

perturbations. Rossby's original solution of the barotropic vorticity equation is tested for stability, using 

beta-plane geometry. When the waves are sufficiently strong or the wavenumber is sufficiently high, the flow is 

found to be unstable, but if the flow is weak or the wavenumber is low, the beta effect may render the flow 

stable. The amplification rate of growing perturbations is comparable to the growth rate of errors deduced from 

large numerical models of the atmosphere. The Rossby wave motion together with amplifying perturbations 

possesses jet-like features not found in Rossby wave motion alone. It is suggested that barotropic instability is 

largely responsible for the unpredictability of the real atmosphere. 

Publication Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 

Volume 29 

Issue 2 

Pages 258–265 


Journal Abbr J. Atmos. Sci. 

DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1972)0292.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0469 


/1520-0469%281972%29029%3C0258%3ABIORWM%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments 



60 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Author Carl N. Skinner 

Abstract Successful fire exclusion in the 20th century has created severe fire problems across the West. Not every forest 

is at risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfire, but drier forests are in need of active management to mitigate 

fire hazard. We summarize a set of simple principles important to address in fuel reduction treatments: reduction 

of surface fuels, increasing the height to live crown, decreasing crown density, and retaining large trees of 

fire-resistant species. Thinning and prescribed fire can be useful tools to achieve these objectives. Low thinning 

will be more effective than crown or selection thinning, and management of surface fuels will increase the 

likelihood that the stand will survive a wildfire. Five empirical examples of such treatment are discussed: 

Hayfork fires, California, 1987; Tyee fire,Washington, 1994; Megram fire, California, 1999; Hayman fire, 

Colorado,2002; and the Cone fire, California, 2002. Applying treatments at an appropriate landscape scale will 

be critical to the success of fuel reduction treatments in reducing wildfire losses in Western forests. 


Volume 211 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 83–96 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.01.034 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: fire ecology; fuel treatment; prescribed fire; thinning; western United States. 



Beyond wildfire: Perspectives of climate, managed fire and policy in the USA 


Author Crystal A. Kolden 

Author Timothy J. Brown 

Abstract Climate–wildfire relationships have been widely addressed by the scientific community over the last two 

decades; however, the role of climate in managed fire in the US (i.e. prescribed fire and wildland fire use) has 

not yet been addressed. We hypothesised that if climate is an important component of managed fire, the fire 

community would already be aware of this and using climate information in order to mitigate risks associated 

with managed fires. We conducted 223 surveys with fire managers to ascertain how climate information is 

utilised in managed-fire decision-making. We found that wildland fire use managers consider climate to be an 

important aspect of managed fire and use various types of climate information, but prescribed-fire managers do 

not generally consider climate or use climate information in their planning activities. Survey responses also 

indicate a lack of agency training on climate information and decision-support tools. This is partly attributed to 

obstacles in US fire policy that inhibit widespread utilisation of climate information. We suggest these results are 

indicative of a broader conflict in US wildfire policy, which does not directly address climate despite two 

decades of scientific research showing climate plays a key role in wildfire regimes. 


Volume 19 

Issue 3 

Pages 364-373 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1071/WF08111 

Short Title Beyond wildfire 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF08111 

Extra Keywords: fire risk; prescribed fire; wildland fire use. 



61 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Biodiversity: Climate change and the ecologist 


Author Wilfried Thuiller 

Abstract The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by 

up to 4 °C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for 

biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a Grand Challenge in ecology. 


Volume 448 

Issue 7153 

Pages 550–552 



DOI 10.1038/448550a 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7153/full/448550a.html 



Biogeography 


Author John M. Crowley 


Publication The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe Canadien 

Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 312-326 


Journal Abbr Can. Geogr. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1541-0064.1967.tb00474.x 

ISSN 0008-3658 




Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change 


Author Carla M. D'Antonio 

Author Peter M. Vitousek 

Abstract CONCLUSIONS The effects of alien grasses on ecosystem function (fire, nutrient loss, altered local 

microclimate, prevention of succession) are significant on the local scale and are becoming increasingly 

important on regional and global scales. Moreover, the interaction of competition with alien grasses, fire, and 

the prevention of succession now represents a substantial global threat to biological diversity on the genetic, 

population, and species levels. However, the number of cases in which ecosystem effects of grass invasions 

have been intensively studied (as opposed to described or speculated about) is small. A thorough understanding 

of additional cases, leading to a better overall understanding of the process, would be useful to the development 

of basic ecological principles as well as to the management of these invasions 

Publication Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 

Volume 23 

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Pages 63–87 


Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000431 

ISSN 0066-4162 


Extra Keywords: alien species; land-use change; competitive effects; ecosystem processes; grass- fueled fires. 



BIOME 6000: Reconstructing global mid-Holocene vegetation patterns from palaeoecological records 


Author I. Colin Prentice 

Author Thompson Webb III 

Abstract Global change research needs data sets describing past states of the Earth system. Vegetation distributions for 

specified ‘time slices’ (with known forcings, such as changes in insolation patterns due to the Earth's orbital 

variations, changes in the extent of ice-sheets, and changes in atmospheric trace-gas composition) should 

provide a benchmark for coupled climate-biosphere models. Pollen and macrofossil records from dated 

sediments give spatially extensive coverage of data on vegetation distribution changes. Applications of such 

data have been delayed by the lack of a global synthesis. The BIOME 6000 project of IGBP aims at a synthesis 

for 6000 years bp. Success depends on community-wide participation for data compilation and quality 

assurance, and on a robust methodology for assigning palaeorecords to biomes. In the method summarized here, 

taxa are assigned to one or more plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes reconstructed using PFT-based 

definitions. By involving regional experts in PFT assignments, one can combine data from different floras 

without compromising global consistency in biome assignments. This article introduces a series of articles that 

substantially extend the BIOME 6000 data set. The list of PFTs and the reconstruction procedure itself are 

evolving. Some compromises (for example, restricted taxon lists in some regions) limit the precision of biome 

assignments and will become obsolete as primary data are put into community data bases. This trend will 

facilitate biome mapping for other time slices. Co-evolution of climate-biosphere modelling and palaeodata 

synthesis and analysis will continue. 


Volume 25 

Issue 6 

Pages 997–1005 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00235.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 

Short Title BIOME 6000 


Extra Keywords: biomes; pollen; vegetation; plant functional type; palaeoecology; climate change. 



Black carbon and the carbon cycle 


Author Thomas A. J. Kuhlbusch 

Abstract When vegetation and fossil fuels burn, the combustion creates "black carbon" that becomes distributed 

throughout the environment. Determining how it is created and where it goes is important for studying the past 

history of fire and for understanding global carbon and oxygen budgets. In his Research Commentary, 

Kuhlbusch discusses results reported in the same issue by Masiello and Druffel in which carbon mass and 

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isotope measurements were used to study the age of black carbon in ocean sediment. They find that the black 

carbon is 2400 to 13,900 years older than the concurrently deposited sediment, suggesting that the black carbon 

must have been stored in some as-yet unknown intermediate pool. 


Volume 280 

Issue 5371 

Pages 1903-1904 



DOI 10.1126/science.280.5371.1903 


Short Title Ocean Chemistry 




Bringing climate change into natural resource management 


Author Linda Joyce 

Author Richard Haynes 

Author Rachel White 

Author R. James Barbour 

Abstract These are the proceedings of the 2005 workshop titled implications of bringing climate into natural resource 

management in the Western United States. This workshop was an attempt to further the dialogue among 

scientists, land managers, landowners, interested stakeholders and the public about how individuals are 

addressing climate change in natural resource management. Discussions illustrated the complexity of global 

climate change and the need for managers to consider how the impacts of climate change will unfold across 

regional and local landscapes. The workshop offered examples of how managers are already responding to those 

aspects of the global climate change that they can see or perceive. While no comprehensive solutions emerged, 

there was an appreciation that policy complexity may exceed the science complexity but that eventually the 

accumulation of local actions will shape the future. 


Proceedings Title Bringing Climate Change into Natural Resource Management: Proceedings 

Conference Name Bringing Climate Change into Natural Resource Management Proceedings of a 2005 Workshop, June 28-30, 

2005, Portland, Oregon 

Place Portland, OR 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station 

Pages 150 p. 

Series General Technical Report, PNW-GTR-706 


Extra Keywords: climate change; forest and range management. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Joyce, L.; Haynes, R.; White, R.; Barbour, R.J., tech. coords. 2007. Bringing climate change into natural resource management: 

proceedings.. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-706. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 150 p. 

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Bringing fire back: The changing regimes of the Appalachian mixed-oak forests 


Author Patrick H. Brose 

Author Thomas M. Schuler 

Author David H. Van Lear 

Author John Berst 

Abstract Since vegetative associations stabilized about 4,000 years ago, the Appalachian mixed-oak forests have 

experienced three profoundly different fire regimes. Periodic, low-intensity surface fires lit by American Indians 

characterized the first regime, and this regime helped perpetuate oak as one of the dominant species groups. The 

Industrial Revolution led to high-intensity, stand-replacing fires, causing extensive damage to the forests. 

Modern fire protection created a “no-fire” regime that permitted the forests to recover but allowed mesophytic 

species to begin replacing the oaks. Today, research is under way to identify how to reintroduce fire to solve this 

oak replacement problem. 

Publication Journal of Forestry 

Volume 99 

Issue 11 

Pages 30–35 


Journal Abbr J. Forest 

ISSN 0022-1201 

Short Title Bringing fire back 


Extra Keywords: oak regeneration; pre-European settlement; wildfire. 

Date Added Wednesday, August 24, 2011 12:16:24 PM 


Broad-scale concepts for interactions of climate, topography, and biota at biome transitions 


Author James R. Gosz 

Author Peter J. H. Sharpe 


Publication Landscape Ecology 

Volume 3 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 229-243 


Journal Abbr Landscape Ecol. 

DOI 10.1007/BF00131541 

ISSN 0921-2973 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/BF00131541 

Extra Keywords: landscape ecology; scale; ecotone; biome. 



Burned area emergency watershed rehabilitation: Program goals, techniques, effectiveness, and future 

directions in the 21st century 


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Author Daniel G. Neary 

Author Peter R. Robichaud 

Author Jan L. Beyers 

Abstract Following wildfires, burned areas are assessed by special teams to determine whether emergency watershed 

rehabilitation measures are required to restore watershed function and minimize damage to soil resources. The 

objective of burned area emergency rehabilitation (BAER) treatments is to restore watershed condition and 

reduce erosional losses on hillslopes, in channels, and on road surfaces and peripheral areas such as ditches. In 

the Western United States, a project is currently in progress to determine the costs and effectiveness of BAER 

projects in restoring watershed function. Results of this project will help establish the future directions of the 

BAER program into the 21st century. 


Proceedings Title US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Proceedings RMRS–P-13 

Conference Name Land stewardship in the 21st Century: The contributions of watershed management; 2000 March 13-16; 

Tucson, AZ 

Place Fort Collins, CO 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station 

Volume 13 

Pages 375-378 

Short Title Burned Area Emergency Watershed Rehabilitation 

URL http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/cgi-bin/engr/library/searchpub.pl? 

pub=2000q 

Archive http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p013.html 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Neary, D.G.; Robichaud, P.R.; Beyers, J.L. 2000. Burned Area Emergency Watershed Rehabilitation: Program Goals, Techniques, 

Effectiveness, and Future Directions in the 21st Century. In: Ffolliott, Peter F.; Baker Jr., Malchus B.; Edminster, Carleton B.; Dillon, 

Madelyn C.; Mora, Karen L., technical coordinators. 2000. Land stewardship in the 21st century: the contributions of watershed 

management: poster papers. USDA Forest Service proceedings RMRS-P-13. 375-378. 

C₄ grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland 


Author Jack A. Morgan 

Author Daniel R. LeCain 

Author Elise Pendall 

Author Dana M. Blumenthal 

Author Bruce A. Kimball 

Author Yolima Carrillo 

Author David G. Williams 

Author Jana Heisler-White 

Author Feike A. Dijkstra 

Author Mark West 

Abstract Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative 

demand. Rising CO₂ may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear 

how important this CO₂-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation 

because higher CO₂ also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. 

Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C₄ grasses, rising CO₂ should favour C₃, or 

cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO₂ can completely reverse the 

desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO₂ increased soil water 

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content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO₂ enrichment and 

warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO₂ favoured C₃ grasses and 

enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C₄ grasses. Combined warming and CO₂ enrichment 

stimulated above-ground growth of C4 grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. 

The results indicate that in a warmer, CO₂-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands 

may be higher than previously expected. 


Volume 476 

Issue 7359 

Pages 202–205 



DOI 10.1038/nature10274 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Can natural or anthropogenic explanations of late-Holocene CO₂ and CH₄ increases be falsified? 


Author William F. Ruddiman 


Author Stephen J. Vavrus 

Abstract Concentrations of CO₂ and CH₄ in the atmosphere rose slowly during the millennia prior to the industrial era. 

Opposing explanations for these increases have invoked natural and anthropogenic sources. Here we revisit this 

argument using new evidence to see whether either explanation can be falsified (disproven, in the sense 

proposed by German philosopher Karl Popper). Two lines of evidence suggest that natural explanations for the 

CH₄ increase are falsified: (1) the absence of any sustained methane increase early in seven interglaciations 

prior to the Holocene; and (2) weakening emissions during the last 5000 years from the two largest global 

sources of CH₄ – north tropical and boreal wetlands. Consistent with this interpretation, a new synthesis of 

archeological data from southern Asia reported in this issue indicates an exponential increase in CH₄ emissions 

from expanding rice irrigation during the last 5000 years. Neither the anthropogenic nor the natural explanations 

for the CO₂ increase can at this point be falsified. Previous studies that rejected the early anthropogenic 

hypothesis based on the small size of early farming populations ignored a rich array of archeological and 

historical evidence showing that early farmers used much more land per capita than those in the centuries just 

before the industrial era. Previous interpretations of very small terrestrial (anthropogenic and other) carbon 

emissions during the last 7000 years based on the δ¹³CO₂ record failed to incorporate credible estimates of very 

large carbon burial in boreal peat lands during the late Holocene. Allowance for larger burial in peat deposits 

requires much greater emissions of anthropogenic carbon to balance the δ¹³CO₂ budget. The prevalence of 

downward CO₂ trends during equivalent intervals early in previous interglaciations poses a major problem for 

natural explanations of the late-Holocene CO₂ increase. 


Volume 21 

Issue 5 

Pages 865-879 



DOI 10.1177/0959683610387172 

ISSN 0959-6836 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0959683610387172 


Extra Keywords: agriculture; anthropogenic; carbon isotopes; land use; late Holocene; models. 

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Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing climate: Impact on fire regimes 


Author Michael G. Weber 


Abstract Boreal forest fire regime, which encompasses fire intensity, frequency, seasonality, size, type (crown versus 

surface), and severity (depth of burn), is an organizing factor of boreal forest landscapes and highly dependant 

on climate. This review combines what is known about boreal forest dynamics from paleological studies, with 

the information derived from state-of-the-art climate and vegetation modeling, to present possible scenarios of 

the impact of anticipated climate change on boreal forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in 

relation to fire regimes. Anticipated climatic/atmospheric impact on plant physiological, communal, ecosystem, 

and finally landscape-level interactions with fire are reviewed. All indications from the modeling sector point 

towards unprecedented increased regional or seasonal temperatures, with projected changes most pronounced at 

high latitudes and there greatest in winter. Anticipated climate change scenarios are expected to alter 

dramatically the boreal forest ecosystems and fire regimes with which they are currently in equilibrium. 

Changed fire regimes could be represented by increased annual area burned because of an extended fire season, 

increased fire frequency, and severity. Simulation studies show the potential for greatly reduced boreal forest 

area and increased fragmentation due to climate change. Fire regime as an ecosystem process is highly sensitive 

to climate change because fire behaviour responds immediately to fuel moisture, which is affected by 

precipitation, relative humidity, air temperature, and wind speed. This interaction between climate change and 

fire regime has the potential to overshadow the importance of the direct effects of global warming on species 

distribution, migration, substitution, and extinction. Such a scenario suggests that rate and magnitude of 

fire-regime-induced changes to the boreal forest landscape could greatly exceed anything expected due to 

atmospheric warming alone. Socioeconomic implications of altered fire regimes in a changing climate are 

discussed in terms of adaptive fire management strategies, age class distribution, and such global stewardship 

issues as biodiversity, carbon cycling, and sequestration. 

Publication Environmental Reviews 

Volume 5 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 145–166 


Journal Abbr Environ. Rev. 

DOI 10.1139/a97-008 

ISSN 1208-6053 

Short Title Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing climate 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/a97-008 

Extra Keywords: climate change; fire regime; boreal forests; ecosystem structure and function; ecosystem processes. 



Carbon dioxide and people 


Author Norman D. Newell 

Author Leslie Marcus 

Abstract For at least a quarter of a century the steady increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has closely paralleled 

the growth of world human population with an amazing correlation of .9985. This nearly perfect correlation can 

hardly be fortuitous. It suggests that the rate of increase of CO₂ is almost wholly dependent on human activities 

with only very minor contributions from natural causes such as volcanoes, the melting of glaciers, and changes 

in oceanic circulation. It is generally agreed by ecologists that rates of human activities, such as the 

consumption of fossil fuels and the destruction of forests, are also increasing. No matter how complex the 

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relationship may be, the fact remains that CO₂ and the population explosion are almost precisely correlated. We 

suggest that mean values of atmospheric CO₂ taken at frequent intervals should usefully supplement, or even 

replace, inaccurate census compilations for estimating the global growth of human population and some of its 

consequences: increasing industrialization, burning of fuels, urbanization, changes in land management, etc. It 

appears that population growth has now exceeded the capacity of the earth to provide a reasonable quality 

existence for every individual. Our statistical result appears to be new. People looking at population changes 

should find the study of these data useful. 

Publication PALAIOS 

Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 101-103 

Date 1987 

Journal Abbr PALAIOS 

ISSN 0883-1351 




Carbon dioxide and world climate 


Author Roger Revelle 

Abstract The article discusses several questions related to carbon dioxide. The first and the foremost question is that how 

much carbon dioxide will be added to the atmosphere in the future. The amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide 

has already increased by 15% due to human activities. The second question is whether the increase in carbon 

dioxide can affect temperature and climate of various regions. The third question asks the consequences of the 

increased carbon dioxide on human societies. 

Publication Scientific American 

Volume 247 

Issue 2 

Pages 35-43 


Journal Abbr Sci. Am. 

ISSN 0036-8733 

URL http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/product.biblio.jsp? 

osti_id=6174749 

Archive http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=& 

Extra Keywords: carbon dioxide; atmosphere; atmospheric carbon dioxide; global temperature changes; climatology; 

weather. 



Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire 


Author Michelle C. Mack 

Author M. Syndonia Bret-Harte 

Author Teresa N. Hollingsworth 

Author Randi R. Jandt 

Author Edward A. G. Schuur 

Author Gaius R. Shaver 

Author David L. Verbyla 

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Abstract Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon (C) in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old 

that insulate, and in some cases maintain, permafrost soils. Fire has been largely absent from most of this biome 

since the early Holocene epoch, but its frequency and extent are increasing, probably in response to climate 

warming. The effect of fires on the C balance of tundra landscapes, however, remains largely unknown. The 

Anaktuvuk River fire in 2007 burned 1,039 square kilometres of Alaska’s Arctic slope, making it the largest fire 

on record for the tundra biome and doubling the cumulative area burned since 1950. Here we report that tundra 

ecosystems lost 2,016 ± 435 g C m⁻² in the fire, an amount two orders of magnitude larger than annual net C 

exchange in undisturbed tundra. Sixty per cent of this C loss was from soil organic matter, and radiocarbon 

dating of residual soil layers revealed that the maximum age of soil C lost was 50 years. Scaled to the entire 

burned area, the fire released approximately 2.1 teragrams of C to the atmosphere, an amount similar in 

magnitude to the annual net C sink for the entire Arctic tundra biome averaged over the last quarter of the 

twentieth century. The magnitude of ecosystem C lost by fire, relative to both ecosystem and biome-scale 

fluxes, demonstrates that a climate-driven increase in tundra fire disturbance may represent a positive feedback, 

potentially offsetting Arctic greening and influencing the net C balance of the tundra biome. Editor's Summary: 

In 2007, an area of more than 1,000 square kilometres of Alaskan tundra was destroyed by a single fire, more 

than doubling the cumulative area burnt in this region since 1950. Michelle Mack and colleagues now show that, 

in the process, teragrams of carbon was released and about one-third of soil organic matter burned away, 

thereby potentially exposing permafrost soils to thaw. The amount of carbon released from the entire burn was 

comparable to the annual net carbon sink of the entire Arctic tundra biome during the past 25 years of the 

twentieth century. As tundra fires are expected to increase as the climate warms, combustion of 'old growth' 

tundra soil could constitute a positive climate feedback, by transferring surface soil carbon to the atmosphere 

and accelerating the thaw and decomposition of deeper permafrost carbon. 


Volume 475 

Issue 7357 

Pages 489-492 

Date 28 July 2011 


DOI 10.1038/nature10283 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Carbon protection and fire risk reduction: Toward a full accounting of forest carbon offsets 


Author Matthew D. Hurteau 

Author George W. Koch 

Author Bruce A. Hungate 

Abstract Management of forests for carbon uptake is an important tool in the effort to slow the increase in atmospheric 

CO₂ and global warming. However, some current policies governing forest carbon credits actually promote 

avoidable CO₂ release and punish actions that would increase long-term carbon storage. In fire-prone forests, 

management that reduces the risk of catastrophic carbon release resulting from stand-replacing wild-fire is 

considered to be a CO₂ source, according to current accounting practices, even though such management may 

actually increase long-term carbon storage. Examining four of the largest wildfires in the US in 2002, we found 

that, for forest land that experienced catastrophic stand-replacing fire, prior thinning would have reduced CO₂ 

release from live tree biomass by as much as 98%. Altering carbon accounting practices for forests that have 

historically experienced frequent, low-severity fire could provide an incentive for forest managers to reduce the 

risk of catastrophic fire and associated large carbon release events. 

Publication Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 

Volume 6 

Issue 9 

Pages 493–498 


Journal Abbr Front. Ecol. Environ. 

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DOI 10.1890/070187 

ISSN 1540-9295 

Short Title Carbon protection and fire risk reduction 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/070187 



Catastrophic dispersion of coal fly ash into oceans during the latest Permian extinction 


Author Stephen E. Grasby 

Author Hamed Sanei 

Author Benoit Beauchamp 

Abstract During the latest Permian extinction about 250 Myr ago, more than 90% of marine species went extinct, and 

biogeochemical cycles were disrupted globally. The cause of the disruption is unclear, but a link between the 

eruption of the Siberian Trap flood basalts and the extinction has been suggested on the basis of the rough 

coincidence of the two events. The flood basalt volcanism released CO₂. In addition, related thermal 

metamorphism of Siberian coal measures and organic-rich shales led to the emission of methane, which would 

have affected global climate and carbon cycling, according to model simulations. This scenario is supported by 

evidence for volcanic eruptions and gas release in the Siberian Tunguska Basin6, but direct indicators of coal 

combustion have not been detected. Here we present analyses of terrestrial carbon in marine sediments that 

suggest a substantial amount of char was deposited in Permian aged rocks from the Canadian High Arctic 

immediately before the mass extinction. Based on the geochemistry and petrology of the char, we propose that 

the char was derived from the combustion of Siberian coal and organic-rich sediments by flood basalts, which 

was then dispersed globally. The char is remarkably similar to modern coal fly ash, which can create toxic 

aquatic conditions when released as slurries. We therefore speculate that the global distribution of ash could 

have created toxic marine conditions. 

Publication Nature Geoscience 

Volume 4 

Issue 2 

Pages 104–107 


Journal Abbr Nature Geosci. 

DOI 10.1038/ngeo1069 

ISSN 1752-0894 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo1069 




Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America 


Author Mojib Latif 

Author Timothy P. Barnett 

Abstract The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Ocean and North America is investigated by the 

analysis of data from a multidecadal integration with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and 

observations. About one-third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed 

to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific 

and the Aleutian low-pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate 

forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales. 


Volume 266 

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Issue 5185 

Pages 634-637 



DOI 10.1126/science.266.5185.634 


URL http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/266/5185/634 

Extra Keywords: climates; north america; pacific ocean; mathematical models; air-water interactions; atmospheric 

circulation; forecasting. 



Causes of juniper invasion in southwestern Idaho 


Author J. Wayne Burkhardt 

Author Edwin W. Tisdale 

Abstract Invasion of western juniper into vegetation dominated by mountain big sagebrush and perennial bunchgrass on 

the Owyhee Plateau of southwest Idaho appears to be directly related to cessation of periodic fires. Evidence 

from adjacent climax juniper stands indicates that fires were frequent for at least several hundred years 

preceding white settlement. Fires have been much less frequent during the past century due to active fire 

control, development of roads and other fire barriers, and reduced fuel because of heavy grazing and a shift 

towards decreased precipitation. Physical and biotic factors affecting the establishment of juniper, seed dispersal 

mechanisms, and the fire history of the study area were investigated. Results indicated that range condition as 

such had a negligible effect on juniper establishment. Juniper seedlings became established most readily on areas 

supporting well-developed herbaceous and shrubby vegetation. Seed dispersal was primarily localized, and 

accomplished by gravity and disturbance by animal trampling. Abundant evidence of fire in the form of charred 

stumps and fire scars on living trees was found throughout the study area. Old juniper stands are confined to 

rocky ridges where understory vegetation is sparse and fires less intense. Juniper was apparently kept out of the 

denser vegetation of deeper soils by more intense fires. Most herbaceous and shrubby species survived this 

treatment due to greater tolerance to fire, or rapid reproduction from seed. 

Publication Ecology 

Volume 57 

Issue 3 

Pages 472-484 

Date May 1976 

Journal Abbr Ecology 

DOI 10.2307/1936432 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: fires; grazing; Idaho; Juniperus occidentalis, sagebrush; succession. 



Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean 


Author Emanuele Di Lorenzo 

Author Kim M. Cobb 

Author Jason C. Furtado 

Author Niklas Schneider 

Author Bruce T. Anderson 

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Author Annalisa Bracco 

Author Michael A. Alexander 

Author Daniel J. Vimont 

Abstract Decadal fluctuations of the ocean and atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean significantly affect the weather 

and climate of North America and Eurasia. They also cause transitions between different states of marine 

ecosystems across the Pacific Ocean. An important fraction of North Pacific low-frequency variability is linked 

to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, a climate pattern associated with decadal fluctuations of the ocean 

circulation. Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea 

surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual 

variability with far-reaching effects on global climate patterns. Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a 

coupled ocean–atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with central 

Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation. These changes in turn drive the 

decadal fluctuations of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Given that central Pacific El Niño events could 

become more frequent with increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we infer that the North 

Pacific Gyre Oscillation may play an increasingly important role in shaping Pacific climate and marine 

ecosystems in the twenty-first century. 


Volume 3 

Issue 11 

Pages 762-765 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo984 

ISSN 1752-0908 




Century scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest 


Author Henri D. Grissino Mayer 


Abstract Interannual time-scale associations between fire occurrence anddrought indices, the Southern Oscillation, and 

other synopticpatterns demonstrate that large-scale, long term atmospheric featuresare precursors to regional 

fire activity. However, our knowledge offire-climate relations over longer (century) timescales is fragmentary 

because of the rarity of comparable climate and fire time-series with sufficient resolution, length and regional 

extent. In this study, we develop reconstructions of wildfire occurrence from tree-ring data collected from 

northwestern New Mexico to compare with a millennium-length dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation. 

Reconstructions of both wildfires and climate show simultaneous changes since AD 1700 that indicate climate 

forcing of wildfire regimes on interannual to century timescales. Following a centuries-long dry period with high 

fire frequency (c. AD 1400-1790), annual precipitation increased, fire frequency decreased, and the season of 

fire shifted from predominantly midsummer to late spring. We hypothesize that these shifts in fire regimes 

reflect long-term changes in rainfall patternsassociated with changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation 

patterns and the Southern Oscillation. Our evidence supports century-scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the 

American Southwest, providing a useful analogue of future wildfire regimes expected uinder changing global 

climate conditions. 


Volume 10 

Issue 2 

Pages 213-220 



DOI 10.1191/095968300668451235 

ISSN 0959-6836 (Print) 1477-0911 (Online) 

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Extra Keywords: dendrochronology; tree-rings; fire history; climatic change; El Malpais National Monument; 

southwestern USA. 



Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene: Does vegetation 

composition or climate trigger the fire regime? 


Author Christopher Carcaillet 

Author Yves Bergeron 

Author Pierre J. H. Richard 

Author Bianca Fréchette 

Author Sylvie Gauthier 

Author Yves T. Prairie 

Abstract Summary: 1. Studies on the variability of natural fire regimes are needed to understand plant responses in a 

changing environment. Since vegetation changes might follow or trigger changes in fire frequency, climate 

models suggest that changes in water balance will accompany current global warming, and the response of fire 

regimes to Holocene hydro-climate changes and vegetation switches may thus serve as a useful analogue for 

current change. 2. We present high-resolution charcoal records from laminated cores from three small kettle 

lakes located in mixed-boreal and coniferous-boreal forest. Comparison with some pollen diagrams from the 

lakes is used to evaluate the role of the local vegetation in the fire history. Fire frequency was reconstructed by 

measuring the separation of peaks after detrending the charcoal accumulation rate from any background. 3. 

Several distinct periods of fire regime were detected with fire intervals. Between c. 7000-3000 cal. year BP, fire 

intervals were double those in the last 2000 years. Fire frequency changed 1000 years earlier in the coniferousboreal 

forest than in the mixed-boreal forest to the south. The absence of changes in combustibility species in 

the pollen data that could explain the fire frequency transition suggests that the vegetation does not control the 

long-term fire regime in the boreal forest. 4. Climate appears to be the main process triggering fire. The 

increased frequency may be the result of more frequent drought due to the increasing influence of cool dry 

westerly Pacific air-masses from mid to late Holocene, and thus of conditions conducive to ignition and fire 

spread. In east Canada, this change matches other long-term climate proxies and suggests that a switch in 

atmospheric circulation 2-3000 years ago triggered a less stable climate with more dry summers. Future 

warming is moreover likely to reduce fire frequency. 


Volume 89 

Issue 6 

Pages 930–946 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2001.00614.x 

ISSN 0022-0477 

Short Title Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene 


Extra Keywords: boreal forest; climate; charcoal; fire frequency; Holocene; laminated sediments; pollen; Quebec. 



Changes and projections in Australian winter rainfall and circulation: Anthropogenic forcing and 

internal variability 


Author Carsten Segerlund Frederiksen 

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Author Jorgen Segerlund Frederiksen 

Author Janice Maria Sisson 

Author Stacey Lee Osbrough 

Abstract Large and continuing reductions in southern Australian winter rainfall are shown to be associated with major 

shifts in the Southern Hemisphere circulation since the mid-1970s. In particular, these changes have been linked 

to a reduction in winter storm formation with the growth rate of the leading storm track modes affecting 

southern Australia being more than 30% lower during the last three decades compared to the period between 

1949 and 1968. These effects have become more pronounced with time. In this paper, we focus on the changes 

in southern Australian winter rainfall and relate them to circulation changes that are directly associated with 

storm formation. We employ a useful diagnostic of storm development which is the vertical shear in the 

atmospheric winds, commonly known as baroclinic instability, and is encapsulated in the Phillips (1954) 

criterion. The relationship between changes in the Phillips criterion and changes in rainfall during the twentieth 

century is discussed. We also consider projected changes and trends in rainfall and baroclinic instability in SRES 

scenarios using results from CMIP3 models. We elucidate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal 

variability. Our results show that the impact of further increases in anthropogenic CO₂ concentrations can lead 

to further large reductions in baroclinic instability, with model trends during the 21st century similar to those 

simulated during the second half of the 20th century. Associated reductions in modelled southern Australian 

rainfall can be as much as twice those seen at the end of the 20th century. 

Publication International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses 

Volume 2 

Issue 3 

Pages 143-162 

Date 2011 

Journal Abbr Int. J. Clim. Change Impacts Responses 

ISSN 1835-7156 

URL http://ijc.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.185/prod.104 


Extra Keywords: Australian rainfall; atmospheric circulation; climate change; climate projections; storm formation; 

anthropogenic forcing; internal variability. 



Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species’ optimum elevations 


Author Shawn M. Crimmins 

Author Solomon Z. Dobrowski 

Author Jonathan A. Greenberg 

Author John T. Abatzoglou 

Author Alison R. Mynsberge 

Abstract Uphill shifts of species’ distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to 

widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often 

considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant 

species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in 

a significant downward shift in species’ optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be 

expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species’ niche tracking of regional changes in 

climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future 

climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6015 

Pages 324-327 



DOI 10.1126/science.1199040 

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ISSN 0036-8075 




Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest 


Author Jill F. Johnstone 

Author Teresa N. Hollingsworth 

Author F. Stuart Chapin 


Abstract Predicting plant community responses to changing environmental conditions is a key element of forecasting and 

mitigating the effects of global change. Disturbance can play an important role in these dynamics, by initiating 

cycles of secondary succession and generating opportunities for communities of long-lived organisms to 

reorganize in alternative configurations. This study used landscape-scale variations in environmental conditions, 

stand structure, and disturbance from an extreme fire year in Alaska to examine how these factors affected 

successional trajectories in boreal forests dominated by black spruce. Because fire intervals in interior Alaska 

are typically too short to allow relay succession, the initial cohorts of seedlings that recruit after fire largely 

determine future canopy composition. Consequently, in a dynamically stable landscape, postfire tree seedling 

composition should resemble that of the prefire forest stands, with little net change in tree composition after 

fire. Seedling recruitment data from 90 burned stands indicated that postfire establishment of black spruce was 

strongly linked to environmental conditions and was highest at sites that were moist and had high densities of 

prefire spruce. Although deciduous broadleaf trees were absent from most prefire stands, deciduous trees 

recruited from seed at many sites and were most abundant at sites where the fires burned severely, consuming 

much of the surface organic layer. Comparison of pre- and postfire tree composition in the burned stands 

indicated that the expected trajectory of black spruce self-replacement was typical only at moist sites that 

burned with low fire severity. At severely burned sites, deciduous trees dominated the postfire tree seedling 

community, suggesting these sites will follow alternative, deciduous-dominated trajectories of succession. 

Increases in the severity of boreal fires with climate warming may catalyze shifts to an increasingly deciduousdominated 

landscape, substantially altering landscape dynamics and ecosystem services in this part of the boreal 

forest. 


Volume 16 

Issue 4 

Pages 1281-1295 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02051.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 


Extra Keywords: Betula neoalaskana; boosted regression trees; composite burn index; fire severity; Picea mariana; 

Populus tremuloides; postfire succession; seedling recruitment; topography. 



Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and 

analysis of charcoal data 


Author Mitchell J. Power 

Author Jennifer Marlon 

Author Natalie Ortiz 

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Author Sandy P. Harrison 

Author Francis E. Mayle 

Author Aziz Ballouche 

Author Richard H. W. Bradshaw 


Author Carlos Cordova 

Author Scott Mooney 

Author Patricio I. Moreno 


Author Kirsten Thonicke 

Author Willy Tinner 


Author Yun Zhang 

Author Yan Zhao 

Author Adam A. Ali 


Author Ruth Beer 

Author Hermann Behling 

Author Christy Briles 

Author Kendrick J. Brown 

Author Andrea Brunelle 

Author Mark Bush 

Author Phil Camill 

Author Guo Qiang Chu 

Author James Clark 

Author Daniele Colombaroli 

Author Simon Connor 

Author Anne-Laure Daniau 

Author Mark Daniels 

Author John Dodson 

Author Elaine Doughty 

Author Mary E. Edwards 

Author Walter Finsinger 

Author David Foster 

Author Jedediah Frechette 

Author Marie-Jose Gaillard 

Author Daniel G. Gavin 

Author Erika Gobet 

Author Simon Haberle 


Author Philip Higuera 

Author Geoffrey Hope 

Author Sally Horn 

Author Jun Inoue 

Author Petra Kaltenrieder 

Author Lisa Kennedy 

Author Zhao Chen Kong 

Author Chris Larsen 


Author Jason Lynch 

Author Elizabeth A. Lynch 

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Author Matt McGlone 

Author Scott Meeks 

Author Scott Mensing 

Author Grant Meyer 

Author Thomas Minckley 

Author Jerry Mohr 

Author David M. Nelson 

Author Jennifer New 

Author Rewi Newnham 

Author Roland Noti 

Author Wyatt Oswald 

Author Jennifer Pierce 


Author Cassandra Rowe 

Author Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi 

Author Bryan N. Shuman 

Author Hikaru Takahara 

Author Jaime Toney 

Author Chris Turney 

Author Dunia H. Urrego-Sanchez 

Author Charles E. Umbanhowar Jr. 

Author Marcus Vandergoes 

Author Boris Vanniere 

Author Elisa Vescovi 

Author Megan Walsh 

Author Xu Wang 

Author Nicola Williams 

Author Janet Wilmshurst 

Author Jia Hua Zhang 

Abstract Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to 

long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land 

use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global 

maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal 

accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the 

LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern 

South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 

to ~11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present 

fire activity from ~19,000 to ~17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greaterthan-present 

fire activity from 16,000 to ~13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or 

near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 

8,000 to ~3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America 

from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of 

change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be 

explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load. 

Publication Climate Dynamics 

Volume 30 

Issue 7-8 

Pages 887-907 


Journal Abbr Clim. Dyn. 

DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0334-x 

ISSN 0930-7575 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/p7w37nk82236gh84/ 

Extra Keywords: palaeoenvironmental reconstruction; biomass burning; palaeofire regimes; charcoal; data-model 

comparisons. 

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Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature 


Author Alexander R. Stine 

Author Peter Huybers 

Author Inez Y. Fung 

Abstract The annual cycle in the Earth's surface temperature is extremely large—comparable in magnitude to the glacial– 

interglacial cycles over most of the planet. Trends in the phase and the amplitude of the annual cycle have been 

observed, but the causes and significance of these changes remain poorly understood—in part because we lack 

an understanding of the natural variability. Here we show that the phase of the annual cycle of surface 

temperature over extratropical land shifted towards earlier seasons by 1.7 days between 1954 and 2007; this 

change is highly anomalous with respect to earlier variations, which we interpret as being indicative of the 

natural range. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle are also observed between 1954 and 

2007. These shifts in the annual cycles appear to be related, in part, to changes in the northern annular mode of 

climate variability, although the land phase shift is significantly larger than that predicted by trends in the 

northern annular mode alone. Few of the climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change reproduce the observed decrease in amplitude and none reproduce the shift towards earlier seasons. 


Volume 457 

Issue 7228 

Pages 435-440 



DOI 10.1038/nature07675 

ISSN 0028-0836 (print), 1476-4687(online) 




Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming 


Author David W. Clow 

Abstract Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978–2007 water 

years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack 

telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, 

nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites 

within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and 

streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2–3 weeks over the 29-yr study 

period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. 

RKT analyses also indicated that November–May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9°C decade−1, 

while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade−1, respectively. 

Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation 

as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 

45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the 

snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual 

variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm 

temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, 

indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern 

latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their 

high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt 

runoff toward earlier in the year. Keywords: Streamflow, Snowmelt/icemelt, Interannual variability, North 

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America 


Volume 23 

Issue 9 

Pages 2293-2306 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1 

ISSN 0894-8755 

Short Title Changes in the Timing of Snowmelt and Streamflow in Colorado 


Extra Keywords: streamflow; snowmelt/icemelt; interannual variability; North America. 



Changes in vegetation, structure, and growth of southwestern pine forests since white settlement 


Author Charles F. Cooper 


Publication Ecological Monographs 

Volume 30 

Issue 2 

Pages 129–164 


Journal Abbr Ecol. Monogr. 

DOI 10.2307/1948549 

ISSN 0012-9615 




Changes on the range: Exploring climate change with range managers 


Author Michael A. Crimmons 

Author George Zaimes 

Author Niina Haas 

Author Christopher K. Jones 

Author Gregg Garfin 

Author Theresa M. Crimmins 

Abstract In the southwestern United States, climate variability strongly influences range conditions and thus is an 

important factor in range managers’ land management decisions. Access to cutting-edge climate and range 

science information is vital for managers to make better short and long-term decisions. To engage land 

management practitioners and scientists in communicating about climate change and range science concepts, an 

experiential learning exercise was implemented at a recent meeting of land managers and scientists. Within a 

state and transition model framework, participants explored potential trajectories for rangeland management 

units under a changing climate. Small groups collectively managed a 400-hectare (1000-acre) parcel of land 

given financial constraints and environmental disturbances determined by chance for six decision periods, 

representing 60 years. In each round, groups discussed potential changes to and transitions of their parcel based 

on the interaction between initial state, disturbances, and the decade-by-decade climate time series data 

provided. The groups enacted management strategies based on trying to keep the parcel in the current state or 

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trying to move the parcel to a more favored state. Evaluation results indicate that the exercise was useful in 

facilitating small group discussions between scientists and managers on the complex interactions between 

short-term climate variability, longer-term changes, and management decisions at all time-scales. Additionally, 

participants’ knowledge and comfort levels with state and transition models significantly increased following the 

exercise. With minor adaptations, the exercise could be implemented in any part of the country and for use by 

college courses studying land management issues. 

Publication Journal of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education 

Volume 36 

Pages 76-86 

Date 2007 

Journal Abbr J. Nat. Resour. Life Sci. Educ. 

ISSN 1539-1582 

Short Title Changes on the Range 

URL https://www.jnrlse.org/issues/ 



Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall 

variability in the southeastern United States 


Author Wenhong Li 

Author Laifang Li 

Author Rong Fu 

Author Yi Deng 

Author Hui Wang 

Abstract We have investigated the changes of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and its impact on summer 

precipitation over the Southeast United States (SE US) using the 850hPa geopotential height field in the NCEP, 

ERA-40 reanalysis, long-term rainfall data and IPCC AR4 model simulations during the past six decades 

(1948–2007). Our results show that the NASH in the last 30 years has become more intense and its western 

ridge has displaced westward with an enhanced meridional movement compared to the previous 30 years. When 

the NASH moved closer to the continental US in the most recent 3 decades, the effect of the NASH on the 

interannual variation of SE US precipitation is enhanced through the ridge's north-south movement. Our 

attribution analysis suggested that the changes of the NASH are mainly due to anthropogenic warming. In the 

21st century with an increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the center of the NASH would be 

intensified and the western ridge of the NASH would shift westward further. These changes would increase the 

likelihood of both strong anomalously wet and dry summers over the SE US in future as suggested by the IPCC 

AR4 models. 


Volume 24 

Issue 5 

Pages 1499–1506 



DOI 10.1175/2010JCLI3829.1 

ISSN 0894-8755 


Extra Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean; rainfall; anticyclones; summer/warm season; subtropics. 



Changing climates, Earth systems and society 

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Notes: 

Type Book 

Editor John Dodson 

Abstract The book covers state-of-the-art considerations on how climate change has and will deliver impacts on major 

globalised biophysical and societal themes that will affect the way the world functions. Human activity has 

resulted in changes to atmospheric chemistry and land cover, and caused serious decline in biodiversity. 

Modifying biogeochemical cycles leads to complex feedbacks. The future climate will have impact on food 

security and agriculture, water supply and quality, storm and cyclone frequency, shoreline stability, biodiversity 

and the future of biological resources. Earth scientists might be asked to forecast any potential abrupt or 

environmental surprises. A sound knowledge of the Earth System will improve the chances of achieving this, by 

developing climate models that will reduce the degree of uncertainty in regional climate prediction. This volume 

sets out a framework of research issues that show how the Earth sciences contribute to a better understanding of 

climate change and suggests where future research will best contribute to the wellbeing of society. The key 

topics discussed are: - climate change patterns over the last four glacial cycles; - the variability in climate over 

the last 1000 years; - impact that past climate change has had on societies; - the role of human activities in 

climate forcing; - the role of models in predicting future climate and how we can assess their merit; - the future 

and likely future climate trajectories. 

Series International Year of Planet Earth 


Place Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York 

Publisher Springer 

Date 2010 


ISBN 978-90-481-8715-7 

URL http://www.springer.com/environment/global+change+-+climate+change/book/978-90-481-8715-7 

Extra Keywords: climate change; climate and Earth systems; climate and society; environmental change; IYPE. 



Table of contents: 

1. Introduction.Setting the Scene: How Do We Get to a Fitting Future?- 2.Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems and 

Adaptation Measures for Natural Resource Management.- 3.Fire in the Earth System.- 4.Vanishing Polar Ice Sheets.- 5.Climate and 

Peatlands.- 6.Climate and Lacustrine Ecosystems.- 7.Rivers.- 8.Climate Change and Desertification.- 9.Climate Change, Societal 

Transitions and Changing Infectious Disease Burdens.- 10.Don’t We All Want Good Weather and Cheap Food?- 11.Building Capacity 

to Cope with Climate Change in the Least Developed Countries.- 12.Climate Change Mitigations Policy: An Overview of 

Opportunities and Challenges. 

Chaos rules: Edward Lorenz capped a century of progress in forecasting by explaining unpredictability 


Author Stanley David Gedzelman 


Publication Weatherwise 

Volume 47 

Issue 4 

Pages 21-26 

Date August/September 1994 

Journal Abbr Weatherwise 

DOI 10.1080/00431672.1994.9925328 

ISSN 0043-1672 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1994.9925328 


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Characterizing global climate change by means of Köppen Climate Classification 


Author Christoph Beck 

Author Jürgen Grieser 

Author Markus Kottek 

Author Franz Rubel 

Author Bruno Rudolf 

Abstract Introduction: Global climate classifications were originally constructed in order to designate the manifold existing 

local climates to an adequate number of climate types and to determine the spatial distribution of these types on the 

basis of climatic data for a reference period. Thus, climate classifications are introduced in order to reflect the mean 

spatial climate characteristics. However, the underlying climate variables are subject to temporal variations and so 

are the results of climate classifications. Therefore climate classifications may not only be used to determine the 

mean state of the climate. They can also be utilized to analyse global and regional scale climate variations by 

applying them to varying time periods. Spatio-temporal variations of climate types resulting from effective climate 

classifications do not only reflect modifications of climatic parameters. By definition they are closely linked to 

different environmental conditions (e.g. vegetation) and therefore they may moreover be used for investigating the 

potential impact of past, present and projected future climate change on environmental systems. Varying aspects of 

global and regional climate change have been investigated on the basis of the well-known climate classification 

according to Köppen (e.g. Köppen 1936, Geiger 1961) by several authors. Fraedrich et al. (2001) analysed the shifts 

of modified Köppen climate types on a global and continental scale during the 20th century, Grieser et al. (2006) 

compared the results of a Köppen classification applied to gridded data from the periods 1951 – 1975 and 1976 - 

2000. Focusing on a more regional perspective Suckling and Mitchell (2000) investigated variations of the boundary 

between the Köppen C and D climates in the Central United States and Wang and Overland (2004) analysed arctic 

climate change during the 20th century on the basis of a modified Köppen classification. Triantafyllou and Tsonis 

(1994) assessed the sensitivity of the Köppen classes to long-term climate change on the basis of long station time 

series. By applying the Köppen classification to the output of general circulation models (hereafter GCM) Guetter 

and Kutzbach (1990) estimated the main characteristics of glacial and interglacial climates, Kalvova et al. (2003) 

compared the results of Köppen classifications applied to several 20th century observational data sets and varying 

GCM outputs and Lohmann et al. (1993) used the Köppen classification to validate GCM control runs and as well to 

analyse scenario runs concerning spatio-tem-poral variations of climate types. In this contribution the spatiotemporal 

climate variations during the second half of the 20th century are investigated on global and continental 

scale by applying the Köppen climate classification to monthly precipitation and temperature data available from 

two most recently constructed globally gridded data sets (Mitchell and Jones 2005, Beck et al. 2005). 

Publication Deutscher Wetterdienst(DWD), Klimastatusbericht 

Issue Klimastatusbericht 2005 

Pages 139-149 

Date 2005 

ISSN 1437-7691 

URL http://www.dwd.de 

/sid_M283MtlKvy3JTG6TTn0SXrhphnptj3Ld9W1QyhrSdGbzRNDyvTkG!293021733!-400704827!1282270634576 

/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop? 

_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=_dwdwww_klima_umwelt_hydro&… 



Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calendar using data from Earth observing satellites 


Author Cesar Carmona-Moreno 

Author Alan Belward 

Author Jean-Paul Malingreau 

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Author Andrew Hartley 

Author Maria Garcia-Alegre 

Author Mikhail Antonovskiy 

Author Victor Buchshtaber 

Author Victor Pivovarov 

Abstract Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometers on the series of meteorological 

satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration between 1982 and 1999 were used 

to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8 km. Comparison with independently 

available information on fire locations and timing suggest that while the time-series cannot yet be used to make 

accurate and quantitative estimates of global burnt area it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location 

and season of burning on the global scale. This time-series was used to characterize fire activity in both northern 

and southern hemispheres on the basis of average seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Fire seasonality and 

fire distribution data sets have been combined to provide gridded maps at 0.5° resolution documenting the 

probability of fire occurring in any given season for any location. A multiannual variogram constructed from 17 

years of observations shows good agreement between the spatial–temporal behavior in fire activity and the ‘El 

Niño’ Southern Oscillation events, showing highly likely connections between both phenomena. 


Volume 11 

Issue 9 

Pages 1537-1555 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01003.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 


Extra Keywords: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); fire activity seasonal cycle; global burnt surfaces time series; 

global fire dynamics. 



Characterizing wildfire regimes in the United States 


Author Bruce D. Malamud 

Author James D. A. Millington 

Author George L. W. Perry 

Abstract Wildfires statistics for the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined in a spatially and temporally explicit 

manner. We use a high-resolution data set consisting of 88,916 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service 

wildfires over the time period 1970-2000 and consider wildfire occurrence as a function of ecoregion (land units 

classified by climate, vegetation, and topography), ignition source (anthropogenic vs. lightning), and decade. For 

the conterminous U.S., we (i) find that wildfires exhibit robust frequency-area power-law behavior in 18 

different ecoregions; (ii) use normalized power-law exponents to compare the scaling of wildfire-burned areas 

between ecoregions, finding a systematic change from east to west; (iii) find that wildfires in the eastern third of 

the U.S. have higher power-law exponents for anthropogenic vs. lightning ignition sources; and (iv) calculate 

recurrence intervals for wildfires of a given burned area or larger for each ecoregion, allowing for the 

classification of wildfire regimes for probabilistic hazard estimation in the same vein as is now used for 

earthquakes. 


Volume 102 

Issue 13 

Pages 4694-4699 

Date March 29, 2005 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0500880102 

ISSN 1091-6490 

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URL http://www.pnas.org/content/102/13/4694.full 

Extra Keywords: frequency-area statistics; power-law distribution; Bailey ecoregion divisions; U.S. Department of 

Agriculture Forest Service; probabilistic hazard. 



Charcoal as a fire proxy (Chapter 5) 

Notes: 

Citation: 



Author Chris Larsen 

Abstract Charcoal particles preserved in lake sediments provide a means of reconstructing fire history beyond 

documentary and dendrochronological records. Recent refinements in charcoal analysis and interpretation have 

greatly improved our ability to use charcoal records as proxy of past fire events and to calculate long-term 

variations in fire frequency. Standardization has also facilitated synthesis of different researchers' data. 

Interpretating charcoal records in terms of the fire location, size, and intensity requires an understanding of the 

processes that influence charcoal production, transport, and deposition. Studies of charcoal deposition following 

modern fires, as well as theoretical models of charcoal particle transport, suggest that macroscopic particles 

(>100 microns in size) are not transported far from source before settling. They become entrapped in lake 

sediments within a few years of the fire event through airborne fall-out and secondary reworking. Microscopic 

charcoal particles (


Algal, and Siliceous Indicators. KluwerAcademic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. 

Chinese stalagmite δ18O controlled by changes in the Indian monsoon during a simulated Heinrich 

event 


Author Francesco S. R. Pausata 

Author David S. Battisti 

Author Kerim H. Nisancioglu 

Author Cecilia M. Bitz 

Abstract Carbonate cave deposits in India and China are assumed to record the intensity of monsoon precipitation, 

because the δ18O of the carbonate tracks the isotopic signature of precipitation. These records show spatially 

coherent variability throughout the last ice age and suggest that monsoon strength was altered during the 

millennial-scale climate variations known as Dansgaard–Oeschger events and during the Heinrich cooling 

events. Here we use a numerical climate model with an embedded oxygen-isotope model to assess what caused 

the shifts in the oxygen-isotope signature of precipitation during a climate perturbation designed to mimic a 

Heinrich event. Our simulations show that a sudden increase in North Atlantic sea-ice extent during the last 

glacial period leads to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, reduced precipitation over the Indian basin and 

weakening of the Indian monsoon. The precipitation is isotopically heavier over India and the water vapour 

exported to China is isotopically enriched. Our model broadly reproduces the enrichment of δ18O over 

Northern India and East Asia evident in speleothem records during Heinrich events. We therefore conclude that 

changes in the δ18O of cave carbonates associated with Heinrich events reflect changes in the intensity of 

Indian rather than East Asian monsoon precipitation. 


Volume 4 

Issue 7 

Pages 474–480 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1169 

ISSN 1752-0894 



Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 10:12:30 PM 

Classification of meteorological patterns in southern California by discriminant analysis 


Author Morris H. McCutchan 

Author Mark J. Schroeder 

Abstract Stepwise discriminant analysis of eight meteorological variables was used to classify the days from May through 

September, 1970, on the southern slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains and over the adjacent basin of 

southern California. The five classes were: 1) hot, dry continental air throughout the day (Santa Ana); 2) 

relatively dry forenoon, modified marine air in afternoon, very hot (heat wave); 3) moist, modified marine air, 

hot in afternoon; 4) moist, modified marine air, warm in afternoon; and 5) cool, moist, deep marine air 

throughout day. Observations of surface temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and total oxidant 

were recorded continuously along the southern slope and crest of the San Bernardino Mountains, and 

rawinsonde observations were recorded at the base. Vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind 

measured by rawinsonde document the five classes. Significant differences in fire weather and oxidant air 

pollution exposure were found on the slope and crest during the five meteorological conditions. Oxidant 

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concentrations are highest on days in classes 2, 3 and 4, when transported up the slope with the marine air 

during the day. 

Publication Journal of Applied Meteorology 

Volume 12 

Issue 4 

Pages 571-577 



ISSN 0021-8952 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0450%281973%29012%3C0571%3ACOMPIS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Climate Action Tracker 

Type Web Page 

Author ECOFYS 

Author Climate Analytics 

Abstract Detailed information on individual country pledges for greenhouse gas emission reductions developed by Ecofys 

and Climate Analytics/supported by the European Climate Foundation 

Website Title No major changes in ambition: High chance to exceed 3°C 

Website Type independent science-based assessment (Green House Gas Emission) 

URL http://www.climateactiontracker.org/ 

Rights Ecofys & Climate Analytics 2009 



Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica 


Author Jean-Robert Petit 

Author J. Jouzel 

Author Dominique Raynaud 

Author Narcisse I. Barkov 

Author Jean-Marc Barnola 

Author Isabelle Basile 

Author Michael Bender 

Author J. Chappellaz 

Author M. Davis 

Author Gilles Delaygue 

Author Marc Delmotte 

Author Vladimir M. Kotlyakov 

Author Michel Legrand 

Author Volodia Y. Lipenkov 

Author Claude Lorius 

Author Laurence Pépin 

Author Catherine Ritz 

Author Eric Saltzman 

Author Michel Stievenard 

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Abstract The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record 

of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes 

through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated 

between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric 

concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the 

record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been 

unprecedented during the past 420,000 years. 


Volume 399 

Issue 6735 

Pages 429–436 

Date June 03, 1999 


DOI 10.1038/20859 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/20859 



Climate and forest fires in Montana and Northern Idaho, 1909 to 1919 


Author Julius A. Larsen 

Author C. C. Delavan 



Volume 50 

Issue 2 

Pages 55-68 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1922)502.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281922%2950%3C55%3ACAFFIM%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia 


Author Jennifer R. Marlon 





Author Philip E. Higuera 

Author Fortunat Joos 



Abstract Large, well-documented wildfires have recently generated worldwide attention, and raised concerns about the 

impacts of humans and climate change on wildfire regimes. However, comparatively little is known about the 

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Notes: 

error: 

patterns and driving forces of global fire activity before the twentieth century. Here we compile sedimentary 

charcoal records spanning six continents to document trends in both natural and anthropogenic biomass burning 

for the past two millennia. We find that global biomass burning declined from AD 1 to approx1750, before rising 

sharply between 1750 and 1870. Global burning then declined abruptly after 1870. The early decline in biomass 

burning occurred in concert with a global cooling trend and despite a rise in the human population. We suggest 

the subsequent rise was linked to increasing human influences, such as population growth and land-use changes. 

Our compilation suggests that the final decline occurred despite increasing air temperatures and population. We 

attribute this reduction in the amount of biomass burned over the past 150 years to the global expansion of 

intensive grazing, agriculture and fire management. 


Volume 1 

Issue 10 

Pages 697-702 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo313 

ISSN 1752-0894 




* In the version of this Article originally published, the y axis label of Fig. 4d was incorrect. This error has been corrected in the 

HTML and PDF versions. 

Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales 


Author F. Ian Woodward 

Author B. G. Williams 

Abstract This paper investigates, with predictive models, the utility of ecophysiological responses to climate as predictors 

of plant distribution. At the global scale responses to extreme minimum temperatures and to the hydrological 

budget effectively predict the distribution limits of the major vegetation types of the World. A minimum 

temperature of -15°C, for example, appears critical in controlling the poleward spread of vegetation that is 

dominated by evergreen broadleaved species; however, the presence or absence of more frost resistant species, 

such as those that are deciduous broadleaved, is not obviously explained in terms of extremes of climate. In 

such cases, predicting the competitive relationships between species is necessary and dependent on the climatic 

sensitivity of population dynamics. 


Volume 69 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 189–197 

Date April 30, 1987 


DOI 10.1007/BF00038700 

ISSN 0042-3106 


Extra Keywords: climate; drought; frost resistance; gap; life-cycle; plant distribution; population dynamics; 

temperature. 



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Climate and spatial patterns of wildfire in North America (Chapter 4) 


Author Ze’ev Gedalof 

Abstract Climate interacts with wildfire at a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this chapter I describe a conceptual 

model that describes how climate (a top-down control) interacts with processes of vegetation development and 

topography (bottom-up controls) to give rise to characteristic disturbance regimes and observed patterns of 

wildfire throughout North America. At the shortest timescales (synoptic to seasonal), climate influences fine 

fuel moisture, ignition frequency, and rates of wildfire spread. At intermediate timescales (annual to 

interannual), climate affects the relative abundance and continuity of fine fuels, as well as the abundance and 

moisture content of coarser fuels. At longer timescales (decadal to centennial) climate determines the 

assemblage of species that can survive at a particular location. Interactions between these species’ 

characteristics and the influence of climatic processes on wildfire activity give rise to the characteristic 

disturbance regime and vegetation structure at a given location. 

Book Title The Landscape Ecology of Fire 

Series Ecological Studies 

Volume 213 



Publisher Springer Verlag 

Date 2011 

Pages 89–115 

ISBN 978-94-007-0300-1 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/l522l0p176n57617/ 


Extra DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-0301-8_4 



Climate and wildfire area burned in Western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003 


Author Jeremy S. Littell 

Author Donald McKenzie 


Author Anthony L. Westerling 

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to quantify climatic controls on the area burned by fire in different vegetation types 

in the western United States. We demonstrate that wildfire area burned (WFAB) in the American West was 

controlled by climate during the 20th century (1916–2003). Persistent ecosystem-specific correlations between 

climate and WFAB are grouped by vegetation type (ecoprovinces). Most mountainous ecoprovinces exhibit 

strong year-of-fire relationships with low precipitation, low Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and high 

temperature. Grass- and shrub-dominated ecoprovinces had positive relationships with antecedent precipitation 

or PDSI. For 1977–2003, a few climate variables explain 33–87% (mean = 64%) of WFAB, indicating strong 

linkages between climate and area burned. For 1916–2003, the relationships are weaker, but climate explained 

25–57% (mean = 39%) of the variability. The variance in WFAB is proportional to the mean squared for 

different data sets at different spatial scales. The importance of antecedent climate (summer drought in forested 

ecosystems and antecedent winter precipitation in shrub and grassland ecosystems) indicates that the 

mechanism behind the observed fire–climate relationships is climatic preconditioning of large areas of low fuel 

moisture via drying of existing fuels or fuel production and drying. The impacts of climate change on fire 

regimes will therefore vary with the relative energy or water limitations of ecosystems. Ecoprovinces proved a 

useful compromise between ecologically imprecise state-level and localized gridded fire data. The differences in 

climate–fire relationships among the ecoprovinces underscore the need to consider ecological context 

(vegetation, fuels, and seasonal climate) to identify specific climate drivers of WFAB. Despite the possible 

influence of fire suppression, exclusion, and fuel treatment, WFAB is still substantially controlled by climate. 

The implications for planning and management are that future WFAB and adaptation to climate change will 

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likely depend on ecosystem-specific, seasonal variation in climate. In fuel-limited ecosystems, fuel treatments 

can probably mitigate fire vulnerability and increase resilience more readily than in climate-limited ecosystems, 

in which large severe fires under extreme weather conditions will continue to account for most area burned. 


Volume 19 

Issue 4 

Pages 1003–1021 



DOI 10.1890/07-1183.1 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/07-1183.1 

Extra Keywords: adaptation; antecedent climate; climate; climate change; drought; ecoprovinces; ecosystem 

management; fire; forest; fuels; gamma distribution; resilience. 



Climate and wildfire in the western United States 



Author Alexander Gershunov 


Author Daniel R. Cayan 

Author Michael D. Dettinger 

Abstract A 21-yr gridded monthly fire-starts and acres-burned dataset from U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land 

Management, National Park Service, and Bureau of Indian Affairs fire reports recreates the seasonality and 

interannual variability of wildfire in the western United States. Despite pervasive human influence in western 

fire regimes, it is striking how strongly these data reveal a fire season responding to variations in climate. 

Correlating anomalous wildfire frequency and extent with the Palmer Drought Severity Index illustrates the 

importance of prior and accumulated precipitation anomalies for future wildfire season severity. This link to 

antecedent seasons' moisture conditions varies widely with differences in predominant fuel type. Furthermore, 

these data demonstrate that the relationship between wildfire season severity and observed moisture anomalies 

from antecedent seasons is strong enough to forecast fire season severity at lead times of one season to a year in 

advance. 


Volume 84 

Issue 5 

Pages 595–604 

Date May 2003 


DOI 10.1175/BAMS-84-5-595 

ISSN Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-84-5-595 



Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest 


Author Marc Macias Fauria 

Author Edward A. Johnson 

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Abstract The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric 

blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of 

large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic 

Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different 

time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase 

in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal 

forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years 

have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at 

interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly 

associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, 

fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested 

return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of 

fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species 

composition of the North American boreal forest. 

Publication Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 

Volume 363 

Issue 1501 

Pages 2315-2327 


Journal Abbr Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 

DOI 10.1098/rstb.2007.2202 

ISSN 0962-8436 

URL http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rstb.2007.2202 

Extra Keywords: Alaska; area burned by wildfire; Canada; climate change; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Arctic 

Oscillation. 



Climate Change - Improvements needed to clarify national priorities and better align them with federal 

funding decisions 


Author US Government Accountability Office 

Abstract Background: In August 2005, we issued a report on federal climate change funding for 1993 through 2004, as 

reported by OMB.8 Specifically, we reported on how (1) total funding and funding by category changed and 

whether funding data were comparable over time and (2) funding by agency changed and whether funding data 

were comparable over time. We found, among other things, that it was unclear whether funding changed as 

much as OMB reported because modifications in the format and content of OMB reports limited the 

comparability of funding data over time. For example, OMB reported that it expanded the definitions of some 

accounts to include more activities, but did not specify how it changed the definitions. We were also unable to 

compare climate-related tax expenditures over time because OMB reported data on proposed, but not on 

existing tax expenditures. Based on these findings, we recommended that OMB (1) use the same format for 

presenting data from year-to-year, to the extent that it could do so and remain in compliance with reporting 

requirements; (2) explain changes in report content or format when they are introduced; (3) include information 

on existing climate-related tax expenditures in its reports; and (4) use the same criteria for determining which 

tax expenditures to include as it uses for determining which accounts to include. Presenting tax expenditures 

alongside the related spending programs is a first step in providing a useful and accurate picture of the extent of 

federal support for climate change. In its April 2006 Federal Climate Change Expenditures Report to 

Congress—the first following our August 2005 report—OMB responded to our recommendations about report 

consistency and tax expenditures. The report stated that “to address GAO’s recommendations, reporting 

changes have been noted in table footnotes throughout this report and a summary table of climate funding from 

2003 through 2007 has been provided.” The report also included existing tax expenditures that could contribute 

to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. OMB’s most recent reports generally have kept the same structures, 

categories, definitions, and format as in past years and more clearly label funding data. 

Report Number GAO-11-317 


Institution U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) 

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Date May 2011 

Pages 89 p. 

URL http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11317.pdf 

Loc. in Archive http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-317 



Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment 

Type Book 

Editor John T. Houghton 

Editor Bruce A. Callander 

Editor Shelagh K. Varney 



Place Cambridge, New York, and Victoria 


Date 1992 


ISBN 0521438292, 9780521438292 

Short Title Climate Change 1992 

URL http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_supplementary_report_1992_wg1.shtml 

Loc. in Archive IPCC 



Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment 

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Type Book 

Author IPCC WG I 

Editor John T. Houghton 

Editor Yihui Ding 

Editor David J. Griggs 

Editor Maria Noguer 

Editor Paul J. van der Linden 

Editor Xiaosu Dai 

Editor Kathy Maskell 

Editor Cathy A. Johnson 


Series Climate Change 

Place Cambridge, United Kingdom: New York, NY, USA 


Date 2001 


ISBN 0521807670, 0521014956 

Short Title IPCC, 2001 

URL http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/? 

src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm 

Archive UNEP/GRID-Arendal 

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Loc. in Archive http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/ 



Notes: 

Climate change and Variability 

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an 

extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to 

persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. 

Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines "climate change" as: "a change of 

climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in 

addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods". The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between 

"climate change" attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and "climate variability" attributable to natural 

causes. 

See also: Climate variability. 

Climate variability 

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, 

etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural 

internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external 

variability). See also: Climate change. 

Citation: 

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, 

and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp. 

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the 

Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Type Book 

Author IPCC WG II 

Editor Martin L. Parry 

Editor Osvaldo F. Canziani 

Editor Jean P. Palutikof 

Editor Paul J. van der Linden 

Editor Clair E. Hanson 





Date 2007 


ISBN 978052188010-7, 978052170597-4 

Short Title Climate change 2007 

URL http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data 

/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adaptation_and_vulnerability.htm 



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Notes: 

Citation: 


IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth 

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden 

and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp. 

Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of climate change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth 

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Type Book 

Author IPCC WG III 

Editor Bert Metz 

Editor Ogunlade R. Davidson 

Editor Peter R. Bosch 

Editor Rutu Dave 

Editor Leo A. Meyer 




Date 2007 


ISBN 978052188011-4, 978052170598-1 


URL http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html 

Archive http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg3.htm 




Notes: 

Citation: 

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University 

Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., 862 pp. 

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth 


Type Book 

Author IPCC 

Editor The Core Writing Team 

Editor Rajendra K. Pachauri 

Editor Andy Reisinger 



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Place Geneva, Switzerland 

Publisher IPCC Secretariat 

Date 2007 


Short Title Climate Change 2007 

URL http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm 




Notes: 

Citation: 

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of 

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, 

Switzerland, 104 pp. 

Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth 


Type Book 

Author IPCC WG I 

Editor Susan Solomon 

Editor Dahe Qin 

Editor Martin Manning 

Editor Zhenlin Chen 

Editor Melinda Marquis 

Editor Kristen B. Averyt 

Editor Melinda M.B. Tignor 

Editor Henry LeRoy Miller, Jr. 





Date 2007 


ISBN 978052188009-1, 978052170596-7 


URL http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data 

/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm 




Notes: 

Citation: 

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of 

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and 

H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. 

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Climate change and forest disturbances 


Author Virginia H. Dale 

Author Linda A. Joyce 

Author Steve McNULTY 

Author Ronald P. Neilson 

Author Matthew P. Ayres 


Author Paul J. Hanson 

Author Lloyd C. Irland 

Author Ariel E. Lugo 

Author Chris J. Peterson 

Author Daniel Simberloff 

Author Frederick J. Swanson 


Author B. Michael Wotton 

Abstract Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, 

introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides. 


Volume 51 

Issue 9 

Pages 723–734 



DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0006-3568 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1641/0006-3568%282001%29051%5B0723%3ACCAFD%5D2.0.CO %3B2 



Climate change and forest fires 





Abstract This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on 

the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we 

have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian 

GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2xCO₂ seasonal severity 

rating (SSR). over present day SSR were calculated for the means and maximums for North America. The 

results suggest that the SSR will increase by 10-50% over most of North America; although, there are regions of 

little change or where the SSR may decrease by the middle of the next century. Increased SSRs should translate 

into increased forest fire activity. Thus, forest fires could be viewed as an agent of change for US forests as the 

fire regime will respond rapidly to climate warming. This change in the fire regime has the potential to 

overshadow the direct effects of climate change on species distribution and migration. 

Publication The Science of the Total Environment 

Volume 262 

Issue 3 

Pages 221-229 

Date 15 November 2000 

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Journal Abbr Sci. Total Environ. 

DOI 10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00524-6 

ISSN 0048-9697 


Extra Keywords: climate change; forest fires; forests; general circulation models. 



Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty 


Author Constance I. Millar 

Author Nathan L. Stephenson 

Author Scott L. Stephens 

Abstract We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future 

environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We 

encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning 

and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future 

challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different 

approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies 

(actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable 

ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include 

resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the 

capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate 

transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester 

carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for 

rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will 

become increasingly important in the future. 


Volume 17 

Issue 8 

Pages 2145-2151 



DOI 10.1890/06-1715.1 

ISSN 1051-0761 

Short Title Climate change and forests of the future 


Extra Keywords: carbon sequestration; climate change; desired conditions; ecosystem management; facilitated 

conservation; forest management; historical variability; resilience; resistance; wildfire. 



Climate change and the invasion of California by grasses 


Author Brody Sandel 

Author Emily M. Dangremond 

Abstract Over the next century, changes in the global climate are expected to have major consequences for plant 

communities, possibly including the exacerbation of species invasions. We evaluated this possibility in the grass 

flora of California, which is economically and ecologically important and heavily invaded. We used a novel, 

trait-based approach involving two components: identifying differences in trait composition between native and 

exotic components of the grass flora and evaluating contemporary trait–climate relationships across the state. 

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The combination of trait–climate relationships and trait differences between groups allows us to predict changes 

in the exotic-native balance under climate change scenarios. Exotic species are more likely to be annual, taller, 

with larger leaves, larger seeds, higher specific leaf area, and higher leaf N percentage than native species. 

Across the state, all these traits are associated with regions with higher temperature. Therefore, we predict that 

increasing temperatures will favor trait states that tend to be possessed by exotic species, increasing the 

dominance of exotic species. This prediction is corroborated by the current distribution of exotic species 

richness relative to native richness in California; warmer areas contain higher proportions of exotic species. This 

pattern was very well captured by a simple model that predicts invasion severity given only the trait–climate 

relationship for native species and trait differences between native and exotic species. This study provides some 

of the first evidence for an important interaction between climate change and species invasions across very 

broad geographic and taxonomic scales. 


Volume Published online 

Pages 13 p. 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02480.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 


Extra Keywords: California; climate change; exotic species; functional traits; grass; grassland; height; invasive 

species; leaf nitrogen; seed mass. 


Modified Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:28:54 PM 

Climate change and wildfire in California 



Author Benjamin P. Bryant 

Abstract Wildfire risks for California under four climatic change scenarios were statistically modeled as functions of 

climate, hydrology, and topography. Wildfire risks for the GFDL and PCM global climate models and the A2 

and B1 emissions scenarios were compared for 2005–2034, 2035–2064, and 2070–2099 against a modeled 

1961–1990 reference period in California and neighboring states. Outcomes for the GFDL model runs, which 

exhibit higher temperatures than the PCM model runs, diverged sharply for different kinds of fire regimes, with 

increased temperatures promoting greater large fire frequency in wetter, forested areas, via the effects of 

warmer temperatures on fuel flammability. At the same time, reduced moisture availability due to lower 

precipitation and higher temperatures led to reduced fire risks in some locations where fuel flammability may be 

less important than the availability of fine fuels. Property damages due to wildfires were also modeled using the 

2000 U.S. Census to describe the location and density of residential structures. In this analysis the largest 

changes in property damages under the climate change scenarios occurred in wildland/urban interfaces 

proximate to major metropolitan areas in coastal southern California, the Bay Area, and in the Sierra foothills 

northeast of Sacramento. 


Volume 87 

Issue S1 

Pages 231-249 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z 



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Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California 


Author James M. Lenihan 

Author Raymond Drapek 

Author Dominique Bachelet 


Abstract The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire 

to the historical climate and to two contrasting scenarios of climate change in California. The results of the 

simulations for the historical climate compared favorably to independent estimates and observations, but 

validation of the results was complicated by the lack of land use effects in the model. The response to increasing 

temperatures under both scenarios was characterized by a shift in dominance from needle-leaved to broadleaved 

life-forms and by increases in vegetation productivity, especially in the relatively cool and mesic regions 

of the state. The simulated response to changes in precipitation were complex, involving not only the effect of 

changes in soil moisture on vegetation productivity, but also changes in tree–grass competition mediated by fire. 

Summer months were warmer and persistently dry under both scenarios, so the trends in simulated fire area 

under both scenarios were primarily a response to changes in vegetation biomass. Total ecosystem carbon 

increased under both climate scenarios, but the proportions allocated to the wood and grass carbon pools 

differed. The results of the simulations underscore the potentially large impact of climate change on California 

ecosystems, and the need for further use and development of dynamic vegetation models using various 

ensembles of climate change scenarios. 


Volume 13 

Issue 6 

Pages 1667–1681 



DOI 10.1890/025295 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/025295 

Extra Keywords: California, USA; carbon; climate change; dynamic vegetation model; fire; vegetation distribution. 



Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence 


Author Norman L. Miller 

Author Nicole J. Schlegel 

Abstract A new method based on global climate model pressure gradients was developed for identifying coastal 

high-wind fire weather conditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of this method for 

determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrence resulted in a good correlation between derived 

large-scale SAOs and observed offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projected change in the 

number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climate models, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other 

a middle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emission scenarios, for three future time 

periods. This initial analysis shows consistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September–October) to later 

(November–December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantly increase the extent of California 

coastal areas burned by wildfires, loss of life, and property. 


Volume 33 

Issue 15 

Pages L15711 (5 p.) 



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DOI 10.1029/2006GL025808 

Short Title Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity 




Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: Climate and competition tracking of demographic 

rates 


Author James S. Clark 

Author David M. Bell 

Author Michelle H. Hersh 

Author Lauren Nichols 

Abstract Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current 

models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because 

(i) calibration and prediction are based on correlations in space (CIS) between species abundance and climate, 

rather than responses to climate change over time (COT), and (ii) they omit competition. To determine the 

relative importance of COT, CIS, and competition for light, we applied a longitudinal analysis of 27 000 

individual trees over 6–18 years subjected to experimental and natural variation in risk factors. Sensitivities and 

climate and resource tracking identify which species are vulnerable to these risk factors and in what ways. 

Results show that responses to COT differ from those predicted based on CIS. The most important impact is the 

effect of spring temperature on fecundity, rather than any input variable on growth or survival. Of secondary 

importance is growing season moisture. Species in the genera Pinus, Ulmus, Magnolia, and Fagus are 

particularly vulnerable to climate variation. However, the effect of competition on growth and mortality risk 

exceeds the effects of climate variation in space or time for most species. Because sensitivities to COT and 

competition are larger than CIS, current models miss the most important effects. By directly comparing 

sensitivity to climate in time and space, together with competition, the approach identifies which species are 

sensitive to climate change and why, including the heretofore overlooked impact on fecundity. 


Volume 17 

Issue 5 

Pages 1834-1849 

Date May 2011 


DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02380.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 

Short Title Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity 


Extra Keywords: bayesian analysis; climate change; climate tracking; competition; drought; resource tracking; tree 

demography. 



Climate change, forest disturbance and carbon retention 


Author William T. Sommers 

Abstract Carbon retention is an important aspect of sustainable forest management and mitigating future climate change. 

Forest ecosystems contain 1146 Pg C. Various large scale naturally occurring disturbances can have large 

impacts on forest ecosystems and their carbon cycles. Fire results in global CO₂ emissions of 2 to 4 Pg C y-1. As 

forest ecosystems respond to climate change, changes in disturbance regimes are likely to impact carbon 

management in a non-linear manner. Failure to include analytical approaches for quantifying and forecasting the 

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impact of disturbances, such as fire, in planning for sustainable forest carbon management will significantly 

lessen the utility of that planning. Remote Sensing (RS) technologies are a critical component of the needed 

analytical approaches, since climate change impacts and seasonal through inter-annual variability of disturbance 

regimes should be monitored on a global basis. Additionally, Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies 

that focus on tracking forest carbon cycles and carbon projects will be central to successful monitoring and 

cataloging changes in forest carbon stocks. 

Date 18 – 23 October 2009 

Conference Name XIII World Forestry Congress 2009 

Place Buenos Aires, Argentina 

Pages 10 p. 

URL http://www.fao.org/forestry/wfc/xiii/en/ 

Extra Keywords: climate; forests; carbon; disturbance; response. 



Climate change: Agencies should develop guidance for addressing the effects on federal land and water 

resources 


Author US Government Accountability Office 

Abstract Summary: Climate change has implications for the vast land and water resources managed by the Bureau of 

Land Management (BLM), Forest Service (FS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Park Service (NPS). These resources generally occur within 

four ecosystem types: coasts and oceans, forests, fresh waters, and grasslands and shrublands. GAO obtained 

experts' views on (1) the effects of climate change on federal resources and (2) the challenges managers face in 

addressing climate change effects on these resources. GAO held a workshop with the National Academies in 

which 54 scientists, economists, and federal resource managers participated, and conducted 4 case studies..... 

Report Number GAO-07-863 

Report Type Report to Congressional Requesters 


Institution U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) 


Pages 184 p. 

Short Title Climate Change on Federal Lands 

URL http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-863 



Notes: 

Summary: 

Climate change has implications for the vast land and water resources managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Forest 

Service (FS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Park 

Service (NPS). These resources generally occur within four ecosystem types: coasts and oceans, forests, fresh waters, and grasslands 

and shrublands. GAO obtained experts' views on (1) the effects of climate change on federal resources and (2) the challenges 

managers face in addressing climate change effects on these resources. GAO held a workshop with the National Academies in which 

54 scientists, economists, and federal resource managers participated, and conducted 4 case studies. 

According to experts at the GAO workshop, federal land and water resources are vulnerable to a wide range of effects from climate 

change, some of which are already occurring. These effects include, among others, (1) physical effects, such as droughts, floods, 

glacial melting, and sea level rise; (2) biological effects, such as increases in insect and disease infestations, shifts in species 

distribution, and changes in the timing of natural events; and (3) economic and social effects, such as adverse impacts on tourism, 

infrastructure, fishing, and other resource uses. Experts at the GAO workshop also identified several challenges that resource 

managers face in addressing the observed and potential effects of climate change in their management and planning efforts. In 

particular, BLM, FS, FWS, NOAA, and NPS have not made climate change a priority, and the agencies' strategic plans do not 

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specifically address climate change. Resource managers focus first on near-term, required activities, leaving less time for addressing 

longer-term issues such as climate change. In addition, resource managers have limited guidance about whether or how to address 

climate change and, therefore, are uncertain about what actions, if any, they should take. In general, resource managers lack specific 

guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions and planning efforts. Without such guidance, their ability to 

address climate change and effectively manage resources is constrained. While a broad order developed in January 2001 directed 

BLM, FWS, and NPS to consider and analyze potential climate change effects in their management plans and activities, the agencies 

have not yet provided specific direction to managers on how they are to implement the order. A BLM official stated at an April 2007 

hearing that BLM is establishing policy and technical committees to address necessary actions and develop guidance to address 

climate change in agency management practices. FWS and NPS officials said that their agencies have not developed specific guidance 

but believe that they are operating in a manner consistent with the 2001 order. While NOAA and FS have not provided specific 

guidance to their resource managers, NOAA officials said that the agency is establishing a working group to determine what actions to 

take to address climate change effects. FS officials said that FS planning processes are designed to identify and respond to emerging 

issues such as climate change. Finally, resource managers do not have sufficient site-specific information to plan for and manage the 

effects of climate change on the federal resources they manage. In particular, the managers lack computational models for local 

projections of expected changes and detailed inventories and monitoring systems for an adequate baseline understanding of existing 

local species. Without such information, managers are limited to reacting to already-observed climate change effects on their units, 

which makes it difficult to plan for future changes. 

Climate change: Helping nature survive the human response 


Author Will R. Turner 

Author Bethany A. Bradley 

Author Lyndon D. Estes 

Author David G. Hole 

Author Michael Oppenheimer 

Author David S. Wilcove 

Abstract Climate change poses profound, direct, and well-documented threats to biodiversity. A significant fraction of 

Earth’s species is at risk of extinction due to changing precipitation and temperature regimes, rising and 

acidifying oceans, and other factors. There is also growing awareness of the diversity and magnitude of 

responses, both proactive and reactive, that people will undertake as lives and livelihoods are affected by 

climate change. Yet to date few studies have examined the relationship between these two powerful forces. The 

natural systems upon which people depend, already under direct assault from climate change, are further 

threatened by how we respond to climate change. Human history and recent studies suggest that our actions to 

cope with climate change (adaptation) or lessen its rate and magnitude (mitigation) could have impacts that 

match—and even exceed—the direct effects of climate change on ecosystems. If we are to successfully 

conserve biodiversity and maintain ecosystem services in a warming world, considerable effort is needed to 

predict and reduce the indirect risks created by climate change. 

Publication Conservation Letters 

Volume 3 

Issue 5 

Pages 304–312 


Journal Abbr Conserv. Lett. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00128.x 

ISSN 1755-263X 

Short Title Climate change 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00128.x 

Extra Keywords: indirect impacts; adaptation; mitigation; climate change; biodiversity; second-order impacts. 



Climate change: Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? 

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Author Steven W. Running 

Abstract Higher spring and summer temperatures and earlier snowmelt are extending the wildfire season and increasing 

the intensity of wildfires in the western United States. 


Volume 313 

Issue 5789 

Pages 927-928 



DOI 10.1126/science.1130370 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Climate change: The El Niño with a difference 


Author Karumuri Ashok 

Author Toshio Yamagata 

Abstract Patterns of sea-surface warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific seem to be changing, as do the associated 

atmospheric effects. Increased global warming is implicated in these shifts in El Niño phenomena. 


Volume 461 

Issue 7263 

Pages 481-484 



DOI 10.1038/461481a 

ISSN 0028-0836 

Short Title Climate change 




Climate change-integrated conservation strategies 


Author Lee Hannah 

Author Guy F. Midgley 

Author D. Millar 

Abstract • Aim: Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic 

impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide 

significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving 

biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change-integrated Conservation 

Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. • 

Location: The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to 

climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. • Methods: Current tools from climatology, 

biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. 

Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use 

available tools to respond to these challenges. • Results: Five elements of CCS are described: regional 

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modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of 

resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to 

identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. 

Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling 

results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range 

shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off-park efforts allows harmonization of conservation 

goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most 

biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. • 

Main conclusions: Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate 

change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity 

that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS 

provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address 

this need. These planning exercises take place on a regional level, driven by regional climate models as well as 

general circulation models (GCMs), to ensure that regional climate drivers such as land use change and 

mesoscale topography are adequately represented. Sensitivity analysis can help address the substantial 

uncertainty inherent in projecting future climates and biodiversity response. 

Publication Global Ecology and Biogeography 

Volume 11 

Issue 6 

Pages 485–495 


Journal Abbr Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 

DOI 10.1046/j.1466-822X.2002.00306.x 

ISSN 1466-8238 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2002.00306.x/abstract 

Extra Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; conservation; matrix management; modelling; protected areas; range 

shifts. 



Climate commitment in an uncertain world 


Author Kyle C. Armour 

Author Gerard H. Roe 

Abstract Climate commitment—the warming that would still occur given no further human influence—is a fundamental 

metric for both science and policy. It informs us of the minimum climate change we face and, moreover, 

depends only on our knowledge of the natural climate system. Studies of the climate commitment due to CO₂ 

find that global temperature would remain near current levels, or even decrease slightly, in the millennium 

following the cessation of emissions. However, this result overlooks the important role of the non-CO₂ 

greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper shows that global energetics require an immediate and significant 

warming following the cessation of emissions as aerosols are quickly washed from the atmosphere, and the large 

uncertainty in current aerosol radiative forcing implies a large uncertainty in the climate commitment. 

Fundamental constraints preclude Earth returning to pre-industrial temperatures for the indefinite future. These 

same constraints mean that observations are currently unable to eliminate the possibility that we are already 

beyond the point where the ultimate warming will exceed dangerous levels. Models produce a narrower range of 

climate commitment, but undersample observed forcing constraints. 


Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages L01707 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2010GL045850 

ISSN 0094-8276 

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Extra Keywords: climate commitment; committed warming. 



Climate data challenges in the 21st century 


Author Jonathan T. Overpeck 


Author Sandrine Bony 

Author David R. Easterling 

Abstract Climate data are dramatically increasing in volume and complexity, just as the users of these data in the 

scientific community and the public are rapidly increasing in number. A new paradigm of more open, 

user-friendly data access is needed to ensure that society can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and 

change, while at the same time exploiting opportunities that will occur. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6018 

Pages 700-702 



DOI 10.1126/science.1197869 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651–1900) 




Author Lori D. Daniels 

Author Amy E. Hessl 


Author Nathan J. Mantua 

Abstract We inferred climate drivers of regionally synchronous surface fires from 1651 to 1900 at 15 sites with existing 

annually accurate fire-scar chronologies from forests dominated by ponderosa pine or Douglas-fir in the inland 

Northwest (interior Oregon, Washington and southern British Columbia). Years with widespread fires (35 years 

with fire at 7 to 11 sites) had warm spring–summers and warm-dry summers, whereas years with no fires at any 

site (18 years) had the opposite conditions. Spring climate likely affected the length of the fire season via the 

effects of snowmelt on soil and fuel moisture, whereas summer climate influenced fuel moisture during the fire 

season. Climate in prior years was not a significant driver of regionally synchronous surface fires, likely because 

fuels were generally sufficient for the ignition and spread of such fires in these forests. Fires occurred 

significantly more often than expected by chance when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were both warm phase and less often when they were both cool phase. 

Interactions between large-scale climate patterns influenced fire synchrony in the inland Northwest because 

phases of ENSO and PDO were associated with changes in the frequency of warm-dry v. cool-wet spring– 

summer climate. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

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Pages 40 



DOI 10.1071/WF07024 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: British Columbia; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire scars; Oregon; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; 

Palmer Drought Severity Index; temperature; Washington. 



Climate effects on historical fires (1630–1900) in Utah 


Author Peter M. Brown 


Author Stanley G. Kitchen 

Author Marc H. Weber 

Abstract We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar 

chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous 

fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at 

any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire 

years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. 

NINO3 (an index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years 

(La Niñas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Niños). NINO3 also was high during years before 

regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and 

the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically 

significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixedconifer 

forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support 

findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin 

teleconnections at ~40°N. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 28-39 



DOI 10.1071/WF07023 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: crossdating; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire scars; Palmer Drought Severity Index; temperature. 



Climate forcing due to optimization of maximal leaf conductance in subtropical vegetation under rising 

CO₂ 


Author Hugo Jan de Boer 

Author Emmy I. Lammertsma 

Author Friederike Wagner-Cremer 

Author David L. Dilcher 

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Author Martin J. Wassen 

Author Stefan C. Dekker 

Abstract Plant physiological adaptation to the global rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration (CO₂) is identified as a 

crucial climatic forcing. To optimize functioning under rising CO₂, plants reduce the diffusive stomatal 

conductance of their leaves (gs) dynamically by closing stomata and structurally by growing leaves with altered 

stomatal densities and pore sizes. The structural adaptations reduce maximal stomatal conductance (gsmax) and 

constrain the dynamic responses of gs. Here, we develop and validate models that simulate structural stomatal 

adaptations based on diffusion of CO₂ and water vapor through stomata, photosynthesis, and optimization of 

carbon gain under the constraint of a plant physiological cost of water loss. We propose that the ongoing 

optimization of gsmax is eventually limited by species-specific limits to phenotypic plasticity. Our model 

reproduces observed structural stomatal adaptations and predicts that adaptation will continue beyond double 

CO₂. Owing to their distinct stomatal dimensions, angiosperms reach their phenotypic response limits on 

average at 740 ppm and conifers on average at 1,250 ppm CO₂. Further, our simulations predict that doubling 

today's CO₂ will decrease the annual transpiration flux of subtropical vegetation in Florida by ≈ 60 Wm⁻². We 

conclude that plant adaptation to rising CO₂ is altering the freshwater cycle and climate and will continue to do 

so throughout this century. 


Volume 108 

Issue 10 

Pages 4041-4046 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1100555108 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: climate change; physiological forcing; plant evolution. 



Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide 


Author James Hansen 

Author D. Johnson 

Author A. Lacis 

Author Sergej Lebedeff 

Author P. Lee 

Author D. Rind 

Author Gary Russell 

Abstract The global temperature rose by 0.2°C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the 

past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured 

increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to 

be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the 

anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the 

end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 

21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a 

shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, 

and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage. 


Volume 213 

Issue 4511 

Pages 957-966 



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DOI 10.1126/science.213.4511.957 

ISSN 0036-8075 

URL http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.213.4511.957 



Climate in the context of wildland fire use: Windows of opportunity 




Abstract Wildland Fire Use (WFU) is a tool utilized by fire managers to promote resource benefits from naturally 

occurring lightning-ignited wildfires. While WFU has been in use for nearly 40 years, only recently has it 

expanded beyond a few select national parks and wilderness areas. With an expanded area approved for WFU, 

the question begs: How does climate impact usage of the WFU tool? A dual approach was taken to answer this 

question. Since WFU is a management decision not to suppress a fire, we surveyed 31 WFU managers in the 

U.S.A. to determine how climate information is utilized in their decision-making process for a WFU incident. 

Additionally, we assessed drought and teleconnections indices for correlations to historic WFU occurrence to 

determine how climate has impacted WFU in the past. We found that fire managers are utilizing climate 

information extensively in their WFU decision-making, and would like to have more climate information 

available for their specific needs. This supports our findings that historic WFU is well-correlated to climate 

trends. 

Date 2007 

Conference Name Seventh Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. October 23–25, 2007, Bar Harbor, Maine 


Publisher The American Meteorological Society and organized by the AMS Committee on Agricultural and Forest 

Meteorology 

Short Title Climate in the context of Wildland Fire Use 

URL http://www.ametsoc.org/meet/fainst/20077firenortheast.html 

Extra Poster 



Climate over past millennia 


Author Phil D. Jones 

Author Michael E. Mann 

Abstract We review evidence for climate change over the past several millennia from instrumental and high-resolution 

climate “proxy” data sources and climate modeling studies. We focus on changes over the past 1 to 2 millennia. 

We assess reconstructions and modeling studies analyzing a number of different climate fields, including 

atmospheric circulation diagnostics, precipitation, and drought. We devote particular attention to proxy-based 

reconstructions of temperature patterns in past centuries, which place recent large-scale warming in an 

appropriate longer-term context. Our assessment affirms the conclusion that late 20th century warmth is 

unprecedented at hemispheric and, likely, global scales. There is more tentative evidence that particular modes 

of climate variability, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, may have 

exhibited late 20th century behavior that is anomalous in a long-term context. Regional conclusions, particularly 

for the Southern Hemisphere and parts of the tropics where high-resolution proxy data are sparse, are more 

circumspect. The dramatic differences between regional and hemispheric/global past trends, and the distinction 

between changes in surface temperature and precipitation/drought fields, underscore the limited utility in the 

use of terms such as the “Little Ice Age” and “Medieval Warm Period” for describing past climate epochs 

during the last millennium. Comparison of empirical evidence with proxy-based reconstructions demonstrates 

that natural factors appear to explain relatively well the major surface temperature changes of the past 

millennium through the 19th century (including hemispheric means and some spatial patterns). Only 

anthropogenic forcing of climate, however, can explain the recent anomalous warming in the late 20th century. 

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Publication Reviews of Geophysics 

Volume 42 

Issue 2 

Pages RG2002 (42 p.) 

Date May 2004 

Journal Abbr Rev. Geophys. 

DOI 10.1029/2003RG000143 

ISSN 8755–1209 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003RG000143.shtml 

Extra Keywords: climate. 



Climate over the past two millennia 



Abstract To assess the significance of modern climate change, it is essential to place recent observed changes in a 

longer-term context. This review assesses the evidence from both “proxy” climate data and theoretical climate 

model simulations with regard to the nature and causes of climate variability over a time interval spanning 

roughly the past two millennia. Evidence is reviewed for changes in temperature, drought, and atmospheric 

circulation over this timescale. Methods for reconstructing past climate from proxy data are reviewed and 

comparisons with the results of climate modeling studies are provided. The assessment provided affirms the role 

of natural (solar and volcanic) radiative forcing in past changes in large-scale mean temperature changes and in 

dynamical modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño/Southern 

Oscillation (ENSO) influencing large-scale climate. At hemispheric scales, late twentieth century warmth 

appears unprecedented in the context of at least the past 2000 years. This anomalous warmth can only be 

explained by modern anthropogenic forcing. 

Publication Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 

Volume 35 

Pages 111-136 

Date May 2007 

Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140042 

ISSN 0084-6597 

URL http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/VsUsrxAi8GrtDrvWGT5p/full/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140042 

Extra Keywords: climate change; radiative forcing; volcanic forcing; solar forcing; anthropogenic forcing; greenhouse 

gas forcing; NAO; ENSO; climate reconstruction; paleoclimate modeling. 



Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia 


Author Guido R. van der Werf 

Author Jan Dempewolf 

Author Simon N. Trigg 

Author James T. Randerson 

Author Prasad S. Kasibhatla 

Author Louis Giglio 

Author Daniel Murdiyarso 

Author Wouter Peters 

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Author Douglas C. Morton 

Author G. James Collatz 

Author A. Johannes Dolman 

Author Ruth S. DeFries 

Abstract Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air 

quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with 

biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, 

Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000–2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region 

[128 ± 51 (1σ) Tg carbon (C) year⁻¹, T = 10¹²] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon 

emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater 

than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000–2006 mean of 74 ± 33 Tg C yr⁻¹). Higher rates of forest 

loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation 

between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear 

trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year⁻² (approximately doubling during 2000–2006). These results highlight 

the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager 

responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate–carbon 

cycle feedbacks during the 21st century. 


Volume 105 

Issue 51 

Pages 20350-20355 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0803375105 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: climate change; feedbacks; biomass burning; Indonesia; global carbon cycle. 



Climate shifts during the last century 


Author Klaus Fraedrich 

Author Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe 

Author Peter C. Werner 

Abstract Fluctuations of the land surface areas covered by Koeppen climates are analysed for the 1901 to 1995 period 

using trends and outliers as indicators of climate shift. Only the extreme climate zones of the global Tropics and 

of the Tundra (with the highly correlated northern hemisphere temperature) realise statistically significant shifts 

and outliers. There are no significant trends and outliers in the fluctuating ocean-atmosphere patterns (Pacific 

Decadal and North Atlantic Oscillations) and the highly correlated intermediate climate zones (dry, subtropical 

and boreal) of the surrounding continents. 


Volume 50 

Issue 4 

Pages 405–417 



DOI 10.1023/A:1010699428863 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/v6801111n616w200/ 



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Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago 

dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy) 


Author B. Vannière 

Author D. Colombaroli 

Author E. Chapron 

Author A. Leroux 

Author W. Tinner 

Author M. Magny 

Publication Quaternary Science Reviews 

Volume 27 

Issue 11-12 

Pages 1181-1196 

Date 06/2008 

Journal Abbr Quaternary Science Reviews 

DOI 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.02.011 

ISSN 02773791 




Modified Thursday, March 17, 2011 9:17:24 AM 

Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: The Holocene record of Lago 

dell'Accesa (Tuscany, Italy) 


Author Boris Vannière 

Author Daniele Colombaroli 

Author Emmanuel Chapron 

Author Aurélie Leroux 


Author Michel Magny 

Abstract A high-resolution sedimentary charcoal record from Lago dell'Accesa in southern Tuscany reveals numerous 

changes in fire regime over the last 11.6 kyr cal. BP and provides one of the longest gap-free series from Italy 

and the Mediterranean region. Charcoal analyses are coupled with gamma density measurements, organiccontent 

analyses, and pollen counts to provide data about sedimentation and vegetation history. A comparison 

between fire frequency and lake-level reconstructions from the same site is used to address the centennial 

variability of fire regimes and its linkage to hydrological processes. Our data reveal strong relationships among 

climate, fire, vegetation, and land-use and attest to the paramount importance of fire in Mediterranean 

ecosystems. The mean fire interval (MFI) for the entire Holocene was estimated to be 150 yr, with a minimum 

around 80 yr and a maximum around 450 yr. Between 11.6 and 3.6 kyr cal. BP, up to eight high-frequency fire 

phases lasting 300-500 yr generally occurred during shifts towards low lake-level stands (ca 11,300, 10,700, 

9500, 8700, 7600, 6200, 5300, 3400, 1800 and 1350 cal. yr BP). Therefore, we assume that most of these shifts 

were triggered by drier climatic conditions and especially a dry summer season that promoted ignition and 

biomass burning. At the beginning of the Holocene, high climate seasonality favoured fire expansion in this 

region, as in many other ecosystems of the northern and southern hemispheres. Human impact affected fire 

regimes and especially fire frequencies since the Neolithic (ca 8000-4000 cal. yr BP). Burning as a consequence 

of anthropogenic activities became more frequent after the onset of the Bronze Age (ca 3800-3600 cal. yr BP) 

and appear to be synchronous with the development of settlements in the region, slash-and-burn agriculture, 

animal husbandry, and mineral exploitation. The anthropogenic phases with maximum fire activity corresponded 

to greater sensitivity of the vegetation and triggered significant changes in vegetational communities (e.g. 

temporal declines of Quercus ilex forests and expansion of shrublands and macchia). The link between fire and 

climate persisted during the mid- and late Holocene, when human impact on vegetation and the fire regime was 

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high. This finding suggests that climatic conditions were important for fire occurrence even under strongly 

humanised ecosystem conditions. 


Volume 27 

Issue 11-12 

Pages 1181-1196 


Journal Abbr Quaternary Sci. Rev. 


ISSN 0277-3791 

Short Title Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBC-4S8TW95-1/2/f59508669cdae29ef0f4415f92e2879f 



Climate, fire and carbon: Tipping points and landscape vulnerability in the Greater Yellowstone 

Ecosystem 


Author Erica A. H. Smithwick 


Author Monica G. Turner 

Author William H. Romme 

Author Michael G. Ryan 

Abstract More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the 

amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes 

from C sinks to C sources under future climates and whether these are likely to be exceeded during the coming 

century are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the 

conditions under which future climate and fire regimes would result in tipping points of C source/sink dynamics. 

We asked: (1) How great a change in climate and fire regime would be required to shift each of the dominant 

vegetation communities in the GYE from a net C sink to a net C source? (2) Do current projections indicate that 

changes of this magnitude are likely to occur in the next century, and if so, where in the GYE do they occur? 

and (3) What are the integrated effects of changing climate, vegetation, and fire on spatial patterns of C flux 

across the GYE landscape as a whole? To answer these questions, we developed downscaled climate projections 

for the GYE for three general circulation models and used these projections in dynamic and statistical modeling 

approaches. Using the CENTURY ecosystem model, we simulated C storage for individual forest stands under 

three fire-event pathways (fires at 90, 60 or every 30 years) to year 2100 compared to a reference simulation 

(no fire, representing the historical fire interval) under both future and current climate scenarios. Our results 

show that fire intervals would need to be less than 90 years for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) 

forest stands to shift from a net C sink to a net C source because the time between fires would be less than the 

time required to recover 85% of the C lost to fire (Question 1). We also developed new statistical models to 

relate monthly climate data to the occurrence of large fires (> 200 ha) and area burned, evaluated these for the 

1972-1999 time period, and then used these relationships to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE 

through 2100 given the downscaled climate projections. Results showed that anticipated climate changes are 

likely to increase fire frequency and annual area burned over the next century compared to the observational 

record. However, the timing of these changes and the probability of future largescale 1988-type fires depended 

on the type of climate-fire model that was used, the accuracy of the simulated future climates, and to a small 

degree, the specific climate simulation. The climatefire frequency and climate-fire size models are extremely 

sensitive to temperature differences between the projected future climate and the 1961-1990 base period 

because the two large fire years that occurred in the 1972-1999 climate-fire model calibration period had 

relatively small temperature anomalies (0.5 to 1 °C) and the small sample size of the large fire years in the time 

series makes model building a challenge. Between now and 2050, where we have the most confidence in the 

model, all climate scenarios and both fire-climate model formulations projected at least two 1988 sized fires 

(range 2-6, fires projected to be > 300,000 ha). After 2050, climatic conditions are sufficiently outside the 

historic range of variability used to estimate statistical fire models that those models cannot be used to 

characterize the magnitude of extreme fire years. However, extreme fire years from 2050-2100 will almost 

certainly become more common then projected for 2010-2050, because temperature is projected to continue to 

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increase while precipitation is projected to remain at historical levels. We note, however, that projected changes 

in temperature by the climate scenarios only reach the historical differences in temperature between a subalpine 

forest (with an historical fire return interval of > 100 years) and a montane forest (with an historical fire return 

interval of < 30 years) by the end of this century (5-6 °C). In the northern Rocky Mountains, large fire years 

have been driven historically by extreme climate conditions. Our results imply that fuel availability would 

become increasingly important for fire as weather conditions conducive to large fires become common. The 

capacity for fast post-fire regeneration of lodgepole pine from an aerial seedbank (serotinous cones) and the 

projected increase in lodgepole pine productivity under warmer climate conditions are unlikely to counter the 

anticipated reductions in fire-return interval. In all future climate scenarios, decreases in fire-return interval are 

likely to reduce the potential of the GYE landscape to store C (Question 3). The magnitude of this shift will 

depend on the future distribution of forest and nonforest ecosystems across the landscape, other constraints on 

fire patterns not considered here (fuels, ignition factors, and landscape management), and the accuracy of the 

fire-climate model as future climate diverges increasingly from the past. If past climate-fire relationships can 

predict the future, soon after 2050 climate conditions projected by all three general circulation models would 

likely result in more fire than the current conifer forest ecosystem in the GYE could sustain. Forest managers 

should be considering the potential for qualitative shifts in forest distribution and regional C storage to occur 

before 2100. 

Report Number 09-3-01-47 

Report Type JFSP(Joint Fire Science Program) Project: Fire Effects and Fire Ecology 

Place University Park, PA 

Institution Pennsylvania State University (Sierra Nevada Research Institute and UC-Merced, University of Wisconsin, 

Colorado State University, USDA Forest Service RMRS) 

Date July 2009 ~ January 2011 

Pages 39 p. 

Short Title Climate, Fire and Carbon 

URL http://www.firescience.gov/JFSP_Search_Results_Detail.cfm? 

jdbid=%24%26Z%2B%3BV%40%20%20%0A 



Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA 


Author James A. Lutz 

Author Jan W. van Wagtendonk 

Author Andrea E. Thode 

Author Jay D. Miller 

Author Jerry F. Franklin 

Abstract Continental-scale studies of western North America have attributed recent increases in annual area burned and 

fire size to a warming climate, but these studies have focussed on large fires and have left the issues of fire 

severity and ignition frequency unaddressed. Lightning ignitions, any of which could burn a large area given 

appropriate conditions for fire spread, could be the first indication of more frequent fire. We examined the 

relationship between snowpack and the ignition and size of fires that occurred in Yosemite National Park, 

California (area 3027 km²), between 1984 and 2005. During this period, 1870 fires burned 77 718 ha. Decreased 

spring snowpack exponentially increased the number of lightning-ignited fires. Snowpack mediated lightningignited 

fires by decreasing the proportion of lightning strikes that caused lightning-ignited fires and through 

fewer lightning strikes in years with deep snowpack. We also quantified fire severity for the 103 fires >40 ha 

with satellite fire-severity indices using 23 years of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. The proportion of the 

landscape that burned at higher severities and the complexity of higher-severity burn patches increased with the 

log10 of annual area burned. Using one snowpack forecast, we project that the number of lightning-ignited fires 

will increase 19.1% by 2020 to 2049 and the annual area burned at high severity will increase 21.9%. Climateinduced 

decreases in snowpack and the concomitant increase in fire severity suggest that existing assumptions 

may be understated – fires may become more frequent and more severe. 


Volume 18 

Issue 7 

Pages 765–774 

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DOI 10.1071/WF08117 

ISSN 1049-8001 

URL http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF08117.htm 

Extra Keywords: burn severity; climate change; climate variability; fire regime attributes; landscape flammability; 

normalized burn ratio; patch complexity; RdNBR; Sierra Nevada; snowpack; snow water equivalent. 



Climate, Santa Ana winds and autumn wildfires in Southern California 





Author Beth L. Hall 

Author Laurence G. Riddle 

Abstract Wildfires periodically burn large areas of chaparral and adjacent woodlands in autumn and winter in southern 

California. These fires often occur in conjunction with Santa Ana weather events, which combine high winds 

and low humidity, and tend to follow a wet winter rainy season. Because conditions fostering large fall and 

winter wildfires in California are the result of large-scale patterns in atmospheric circulation, the same 

dangerous conditions are likely to occur over a wide area at the same time. Furthermore, over a century of 

watershed reserve management and fire suppression have promoted fuel accumulations, helping to shape one of 

the most conflagration-prone environments in the world. Combined with a complex topography and a large 

human population, southern Californian ecology and climate pose a considerable physical and societal challenge 

to fire management. 

Publication EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 

Volume 85 

Issue 31 

Pages 289, 296 


Journal Abbr EOS Trans. AGU 

DOI doi:10.1029/2004EO310001 

ISSN 0096-3941 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004EO310001.shtml 



Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison 



Author Peter Cox 

Author Richard Betts 

Author Laurent Bopp 

Author Werner von Bloh 


Author Patricia Cadule 

Author Scott Doney 

Author Michael Eby 

Author Inez Fung 

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Author Govindswamy Bala 

Author Jasmin John 

Author Chris Jones 


Author Tomomichi Kato 

Author Michio Kawamiya 

Author Wolfgang Knorr 

Author Keith Lindsay 

Author H. Damon Matthews 

Author Thomas Raddatz 

Author Peter Rayner 

Author Christian Reick 

Author Erich Roeckner 

Author Karl-Georg Schnitzler 

Author Reiner Schnur 

Author Kuno Strassmann 

Author Andrew J. Weaver 

Author Chisato Yoshikawa 

Author Ning Zeng 

Abstract Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate 

change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ 

for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact 

of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric 

CO₂ concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change 

will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction 

of anthropogenic CO₂ will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first 

century, this additional CO₂ varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the 

models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO₂ levels led to an additional climate warming ranging 

between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon 

cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight 

models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the 

models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land 

sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no 

consensus emerged among the models. 


Volume 19 

Issue 14 

Pages 3337–3353 



DOI 10.1175/JCLI3800.1 

ISSN 1520-0442 

Short Title Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3800.1 



Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations 


Author Amber J. Soja 

Author Nadezda M. Tchebakova 

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Author Nancy H.F. French 


Author Herman H. Shugart 


Author Anatoly I. Sukhinin 

Author E. I. Parfenova 

Author F. Stuart Chapin III 

Author Paul W. Stackhouse, Jr. 

Abstract For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions 

to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been 

conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal 

Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For 

instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the 

treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration 

of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. 

Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and 

current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it 

was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the 

alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire 

seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska 

has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had 

been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout 

the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already 

responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced 

change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid 

response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change. 

Publication Global and Planetary Change 

Volume 56 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 274–296 


Journal Abbr Global Planet Change 

DOI 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 

ISSN 0921-8181 

Short Title Climate-induced boreal forest change 



Extra Keywords: climate change evidence; fire; infestation disturbance; treeline progression; boreal; montane. 



Climatic and human influences on fire history in Pike National Forest, central Colorado 


Author Joseph A. Donnegan 


Author Jason S. Sibold 

Abstract We investigated interannual and multidecadal variability in fire regimes, as related to climate and human 

land-use in Pike National Forest, central Colorado. Short and long-term trends in fire-scar records were related 

to tree-ring proxy records of moisture availability and to variability in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 

Fire occurrence is strongly tied to interannual drought conditions and is associated with cycles of ENSO. Fire 

events tend to occur in years of reduced moisture availability (La Niña years) and are often preceded by 2-4 

years of increased moisture availability (El Niño years). A period of reduced variability in the tree-ring record 

from 1760 to 1820 AD, roughly corresponds to a period of reduced fire occurrence from approximately 1792 to 

1842. Coincident with increased fire occurrence, variability in the climate proxies was high in the middle to late 

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1800s until the early 1900s. Multidecadal impacts through land use are also evident in the fire record with sharp 

increases during Euro-American settlement in ca. 1850 and abrupt declines with the start of active fire 

suppression after ca. 1920. Both humans and climatic variation appear to have interacted synergistically to 

create long-term trends in fire occurrence over the past two centuries. 


Volume 31 

Issue 9 

Pages 1526–1539 



DOI 10.1139/x01-093 

ISSN 1208-6037 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress/doi/abs/10.1139/x01-093 



Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range 



Author Thomas Kitzberger 

Author Joseph Donnegan 

Abstract In the northern Colorado Front Range, fire suppression during the 20th century is believed to have created a 

high hazard of catastrophic fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. Since the early 1990s, resource 

managers have increased the use of prescribed fires to re-create fire regimes and forest structures similar to 

those of the pre-Euro-American settlement period in order both to reduce fire hazard and to improve forest 

health. To improve understanding of historical fire regimes, we conducted a study of fire history along an 

elevational gradient from 1830 to 2800 m in ponderosa pine forests in the northern Front Range. Fire-scar dates 

were determined from 525 partial cross sections from living and dead trees at 41 sample sites. Fire frequencies 

and fire intervals were analyzed in relation to changes in human activities and interannual climatic variability as 

recorded in instrumental climatic records and tree-ring proxy records. Prior to modern fire suppression, the low 

elevation, open ponderosa pine forests of the northern Front Range were characterized by frequent surface 

fires, similar in frequency to many other ponderosa pine ecosystems in the West. In contrast, in higher elevation 

forests (above 2400 m) where ponderosa pine is mixed with Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and lodgepole 

pine (Pinus contorta), the fire regime was characterized by a much lower fire frequency and included extensive 

stand-replacing fires as well as surface fires. In the mid-1800s there was a marked increase in fire occurrence 

that can be related both to Euro-American settlement and increased climatic variability. This episode of 

increased fire left a legacy of dense, even-aged stands in higher elevation ponderosa pine forests, whereas 

increased stand densities in low elevation forests are attributed mainly to fire exclusion during the 20th century. 

Warmer and drier spring–summers, indicated in instrumental climatic records (1873–1995) and in tree-ring 

proxy records of climate (1600–1983), are strongly associated with years of widespread fire. Years of 

widespread fire also tend to be preceded two to four years by wetter than average springs that increase the 

production of fine fuels. Alternation of wet and dry periods over time periods of 2–5 years is conducive to fire 

spread and is strongly linked to El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The warm (El Ninõ) phase of 

ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during spring that results in a peak of fire occurrence 

several years following El Ninõ events. Conversely, dry springs associated with La Ninã events were followed 

by more widespread fire during the same year. The 1600–1920 fire-scar record indicates that individual years 

during which high percentages of the 41 sample sites synchronously recorded fire have occurred at least several 

times per century. The association of these years of widespread fire with very strong ENSO events demonstrates 

the importance of ENSO-related climatic variabililty in creating extreme fire hazard at a landscape scale. 


Volume 10 

Issue 4 

Pages 1178–1195 



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DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[1178:CAHIOF]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: climatic variation; Colorado; El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation; fire regime; forest dynamics; forest 

health; Pinus ponderosa. 



Climatic and human influences on fire regimes of the southern San Juan Mountains, Colorado, USA 


Author Henri D. Grissino-Mayer 


Author M. Lisa Floyd 

Author David D. Hanna 

Abstract Fire severity, frequency, and extent are expected to change dramatically in coming decades in response to 

changing climatic conditions, superimposed on the adverse cumulative effects of various human-related 

disturbances on ecosystems during the past 100 years or more. To better gauge these expected changes, 

knowledge of climatic and human influences on past fire regimes is essential. We characterized the temporal and 

spatial properties of fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests of the southern San Juan Mountains of southwestern 

Colorado by collecting 175 fire-scarred tree samples from nine sites across a wide range of topographic settings. 

All tree rings and fire scars were dated using standard dendrochronological techniques. Fire-free intervals were 

statistically modeled using the Weibull distribution to provide quantitative measures that characterized the 

historical range of variation in pre-EuroAmerican fire regimes. Fires during our reference period were more 

frequent in the low elevation ponderosa pine forests (6-10 yr) than in the high elevation, mixed conifer forests 

(18-28 yr). Fires at lower elevations were predominantly low-severity, isolated fires. Fires during some years 

(e.g., 1748) were spatially extensive throughout the entire mountain range. Intervals that delimited significantly 

long fire-free periods ranged from 10-19 yr (low elevation) to 27-50 yr (high elevation). Fire histories were 

similar between the eastern and western portions of the mountain range, although we found significant evidence 

of topographic isolation on fire regimes at one site. Pre-1880 fires primarily occurred in the dormant season, and 

we found no temporal changes in past fire seasonality. We found no compelling evidence that Native Americans 

influenced fire regimes in our study sites. We found a hiatus in fire occurrence between 1750 and 1770 that we 

believe was likely related to weakened El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity, an extended series of cool-phase 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation events, and weakened monsoonal moisture, all possibly entrained in an invasive air 

mass typical of locations that are more northerly. In addition, pre-1880 fires occurred during years of severe 

drought, conditioned by above average moisture conditions in preceding years. The 20th century is 

characterized by a near complete absence of fires (fire-free interval of >100 yr), suggesting future wildfires may 

be more widespread and ecologically severe compared to pre-1880 fires. 


Volume 85 

Issue 6 

Pages 1708–1724 



DOI 10.1890/02-0425 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: climate–fire interactions; dendrochronology; disturbances, human; fire history; fire regimes; mixed 

conifer; ponderosa pine; San Juan Mountains, Colorado, USA. 



Climatic and landscape controls of the boreal forest fire regime: Holocene records from Alaska 

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Author Jason A. Lynch 

Author Jeremy L. Hollis 

Author Feng Sheng Hu 

Abstract Summary: 1. The response of ecosystems to past and future climatic change is difficult to understand due to the 

uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes and the relative importance of interactions between 

climate and local factors. In boreal ecosystems such interactions may dictate the response to climatic change, 

but the interaction of climate, vegetation composition and the fire regime remains poorly understood. 2. 

Sediment cores from lakes in south-central Alaska were analysed for lithology, macrofossils, pollen and charcoal 

to investigate the relationships between moisture availability, species composition and mean fire return intervals 

(MFI). 3. Macrofossil and lithological evidence suggests that variations in effective moisture occurred over the 

past 7000 years and that the regional climate has been wetter during the past c. 3800 years than before. 4. 

Boreal forests existed in the region throughout the past 7000 years. Picea glauca and Picea mariana were the 

prevalent forest species around Chokasna Lake, whereas P. glauca and hardwood species (e.g. Betula) 

co-dominated the landscape around Moose Lake. Picea mariana replaced P. glauca as the dominant Picea 

species around Chokasna Lake at c. 2000 BP. 5. MFI was > 500 years before 3800 BP, except from 5800 to 

5000 BP at Moose Lake and 5400 to 4550 BP at Chokasna Lake, when values were c. 200 years. MFI 

decreased to c. 200 years during the late-Holocene at both sites and to c. 150 years after 2000 BP at Chokasna 

Lake. 6. At both sites, fires occurred more frequently under wetter climatic conditions. Our results therefore 

support other recent studies demonstrating that warmer/drier climatic conditions do not necessarily induce 

greater fire importance. A combination of increased ignition by lightning strikes and seasonal-moisture 

variability probably resulted in more frequent fires under wetter conditions. 


Volume 92 

Issue 3 

Pages 477–489 



DOI 10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00879.x 

ISSN 0022-0477 

Short Title Climatic and landscape controls of the boreal forest fire regime 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00879.x/abstract 

Extra Keywords: boreal ecosystem; charcoal analysis; climate change; fire frequency; forest dynamics. 



Climatic and topographic controls on patterns of fire in the southern and central Appalachian 

Mountains, USA 


Author William T. Flatley 

Author Charles W. Lafon 


Abstract Climate and topography are two important controls on spatial patterns of fire disturbance in forests globally, via 

their influence on fuel moisture and fuel production. To assess the influences of climate and topography on fire 

disturbance patterns in a temperate forest region, we analyzed the mapped perimeters of fires that burned during 

1930–2003 in two national parks in the eastern United States. These were Great Smoky Mountains National 

Park (GSMNP) in the southern Appalachian Mountains and Shenandoah National Park (SNP) in the central 

Appalachian Mountains. We conducted GIS analyses to assess trends in area burned under differing climatic 

conditions and across topographic gradients (elevation, slope position, and aspect). We developed a 

Classification and Regression Tree model in order to further explore the interactions between topography, 

climate, and fire. The results demonstrate that climate is a strong driver of both spatial and temporal patterns of 

wildfire. Fire was most prevalent in the drier SNP than the wetter GSMNP, and during drought years in both 

parks. Topography also influenced fire occurrence, with relatively dry south-facing aspects, ridges, and lower 

elevations burning most frequently. However, the strength of topographic trends varied according to the climatic 

context. Weaker topographic trends emerged in the drier SNP than GSMNP, and during low-PDSI (dry) years 

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than high-PDSI (wet) years in both parks. The apparent influence of climate on the spatial patterning of fire 

suggests a more general concept, that disturbance-prone landscapes exhibit weaker fine-scale spatial patterning 

of disturbance than do less disturbance-prone landscapes. 


Volume 26 

Issue 2 

Pages 195-209 



DOI 10.1007/s10980-010-9553-3 

ISSN 0921-2973 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/g73v586520234526/ 


Extra Keywords; fire ecology; forest disturbance; climate; topography; fire perimeters; spatial pattern; Great Smoky 

Mountains National Park; Shenandoah National Park; classification and regression tree model. 



Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior (Chapter 2) 

Notes: 

Citation: 


Author Randall P. Benson 

Author John O. Roads 

Author David R. Weise 

Abstract Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire 

severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that 

predispose wildland fules to firre. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, 

ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact of fire on the landscape. The physical processes related to 

combustion, fire and plume behavior are largely affected by both daily weather and long-term climate. 

Book Title Developments in Environmental Science: Wildland Fires and Air Pollution 

Series Developments in Environmental Science 

Volume 8 


Place Amsterdam 

Publisher Elsevier 


Pages 37-59 

ISBN 9780080556093 (DOI:10.1016/S1474-8177(08)00002-8, ISSN:1474-8177) 




Benson, Randall P.; Roads , John O.; Weise, David R. 2009. Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior. In: 

Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Arbaugh, Michael; Andersen, Christian; Riebau, Allen. 2009. Wildland Fires and Air Pollution. Developments 

in Environmental Science 8. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier. pp. 37-59. 

Climatic change and agronomic performance of hard red spring wheat from 1950 to 2007 

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Author Susan P. Lanning 

Author Kenneth Kephart 

Author Gregg R. Carlson 

Author Joyce E. Eckhoff 

Author Robert N. Stougaard 

Author David M. Wichman 

Author John M. Martin 

Author Luther E. Talbert 

Abstract Increasing temperatures are a threat to hard red spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in the northern 

Great Plains and may impact objectives for breeding programs. Weather data and agronomic performance of 

experimental lines and a check cultivar ‘Thatcher’ were compiled for six sites in Montana for 1950 to 2007. 

Mean annual temperature increased significantly at five sites. March temperature increased significantly at all 

sites, and planting date has become significantly earlier at a rate of 0.24 d yr⁻¹ Grain yield of Thatcher increased 

significantly at a rate of 23.5 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ July temperatures increased significantly at two sites. July 

temperatures showed a significant negative correlation with grain yield at three sites and with grain volume 

weight at three sites. Nursery means over years as adjusted for Thatcher was used as a measure of genetic 

change and showed significantly increased grain yield and significantly earlier heading date. Our results suggest 

that earlier planting due to warmer spring temperatures has helped to alleviate negative effects of high 

temperatures during grain filling periods. Genetic changes in breeding materials have also contributed to 

increased yield potential, partially due to earlier heading and avoidance of July heat. Projection of increasing 

temperatures suggests the need for management and breeding strategies to insure productivity of hard red spring 

wheat in the northern Great Plains. 

Publication Crop Science 

Volume 50 

Issue 3 

Pages 835-841 

Date May/June 2010 

Journal Abbr Crop Sci. 

DOI 10.2135/cropsci2009.06.0314 

ISSN 1435-0653 

URL https://www.crops.org/publications/cs/abstracts/50/3/835 



Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes 


Author William R. Emanuel 


Author Mary P. Stevenson 

Abstract The broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes is determined in large part by climate and can be 

altered by climatic change due to natural causes or due to human activities such as those leading to increasing 

atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Classifications that recognize the dependence of natural vegetation on climate 

provide one means of constructing maps to display the impact of climatic change on the geography of major 

vegetation zones. A world map of the Holdridge Life-Zone Classification, developed from approximately 8,000 

meteorological records, is compared with a Holdridge Map with average temperature increments simulated by a. 

model of climate under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The largest changes are indicated at high 

latitudes, where the simulated temperature increase is largest and the temperature intervals defining life zones 

are smallest. Boreal Forest Zones are replaced by either Cool Temperate Forest or Cool Temperate Steppe, 

depending on average precipitation. Changes in the tropics are smaller; however, in some regions, Subtropical 

Moist Forest is replaced by Tropical Dry Forest. 


Volume 7 

Issue 1 

122 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Notes: 

Pages 29–43 



DOI 10.1007/BF00139439 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/p78k7h7694271851/ 



Holdridge Life-Zone Diagram 

Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation 



Author Ze'ev Gedalof 


Author Philip Mote 

Abstract Climatic variability is a domoinabt factor affecting large wildfire in the western United States, an observation 

supported by paleoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. 

although current fire manahement focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical 

ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weater is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. 

Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of 

large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific 

Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climate variability at seasonal to annual leads. 

Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some some regions, 

have been difficult to establish inothers. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons 

throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and 

will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of 

extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant 

species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some 

species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire 

may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource 

management modifies vegetation structure and fuels. 

Publication Conservation Biology 

Volume 18 

Issue 4 

Pages 890–902 


Journal Abbr Conserv. Biol. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00492.x 

ISSN 1523-1739 

URL http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118784300/abstract 

Extra Keywords: climatic change; conservation; fire history; General Circulation Models (GCM); wildfire. 



Climatic conditions preceding historically great fires in the North Central Region. 


Author Donald A. Haines 

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Author Rodney W. Sando 

Abstract This paper examines the importance of various climatic variables before seven well-known fires of the past. 

Also, the 1871 synoptic weather pattern preceding the Chicago-Peshtigo-Michigan fire disaster is examined in 

detail. 

Report Number RP-NC-34 


Place St. Paul, MN 

Institution U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station 

Date 1969 

Pages 19 p. 

URL http://ncrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/viewpub.asp? 

key=555 

Extra Keywords: climatic conditions; fire; North Central Region. 



Climatic controls of Holocene fire patterns in southern South America 


Author C Whitlock 

Author P Moreno 

Author P Bartlein 

Abstract Holocene fire–climate–vegetation linkages are mostly understood at individual sites by comparing charcoal and 

pollen records with other paleoenvironmental proxy and model simulations. This scale of reconstruction often 

obscures detection of large-scale patterns in past fire activity that are related to changes in regional climate and 

vegetation. A network of 31 charcoal records from southern South America was examined to assess fire history 

along a transect from subtropic to subantarctic biomes. The charcoal data indicate that fire activity was greater 

than present at ca. 12,000 cal yr BP and increased further and was widespread at 9500 cal yr BP. Fire activity 

decreased and became more spatially variable by 6000 cal yr BP, and this trend continued to present. 

Atmospheric circulation anomalies during recent high-fire years show a southward shift in westerlies, and 

paleoclimate model simulations and data syntheses suggest that such conditions may have prevailed for 

millennia in the early Holocene when the pole-to-equator temperature gradients were weaker and annual 

temperatures were higher than present, in response to orbital-time-scale insolation changes. 


Volume 68 

Issue 1 

Pages 28-36 

Date 07/2007 

Journal Abbr Quaternary Research 

DOI 10.1016/j.yqres.2007.01.012 

ISSN 00335894 


Accessed Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:12:36 PM 

Library Catalog CrossRef 


Date Added Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:12:36 PM 


Tags: 

wts 

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Author C. Whitlock 

Author P. I Moreno 

Author P. Bartlein 













Volume 68 

Issue 1 

Pages 28–36 

Date 2007 



Date Added Tuesday, May 17, 2011 2:02:49 PM 


Attachments 


Whitlock et al_Climatic controls of Holocene fire patterns in southern South America_QR_2007.pdf 




Author Patricio I. Moreno 














Volume 68 

Issue 1 

Pages 28–36 


125 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



DOI 10.1016/j.yqres.2007.01.012 

ISSN 0033-5894 


Extra Keywords: fire history; Patagonia; charcoal records; early Holocene climate; southern westerlies. 



Climatic controls on fire-induced sediment pulses in Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho: A 

long-term perspective 


Author Grant A. Meyer 

Author Jennifer L. Pierce 

Abstract Fire management addressing postfire erosion and aquatic ecosystems tends to focus on short-term effects 

persisting up to about a decade after fire. A longer perspective is important in understanding natural variability 

in postfire erosion and sedimentation, the role of these processes in structuring habitat, and future expectations 

in light of a warming climate and environmental change. In cool high-elevation forests of northern Yellowstone 

National Park, stand ages indicate infrequent large stand-replacing fires. In warmer low-elevation forests of the 

Payette River region of Idaho, fire-scarred tree-rings record frequent low-severity fires before 1900; standreplacing 

fires and resulting debris flows in recent decades are usually attributed to 20th-century fire 

suppression, grazing, and other land uses. In both areas, however, tree-ring records extend back only about 500 

years. We use ¹⁴C-dated geologic records to examine spatial and temporal patterns of fire-induced sedimentation 

and its relation to climate over the last 10 000 years. We review sedimentation processes in modern postfire 

events, which vary in magnitude and impact on stream systems depending on burn severity, basin 

geomorphology, and the timing and characteristics of postfire storms. Modern deposits also provide analogs for 

identification of fire-related deposits in alluvial fans. In Yellowstone, episodes of fire-induced sedimentation 

occurred at intervals of about 300–450 years during the last 3500 years, indicating a regime of infrequent 

high-severity fires. Millennial-scale variations in the fire-sedimentation record appear to relate to 

hemispheric-scale climatic change. Fire-related sedimentation is rare in Yellowstone during cooler episodes 

(e.g., the Little Ice Age ~1200–1900 A.D.), probably because effectively wetter conditions prevented most fires 

from spreading. During some of the same cool periods, the Payette region experienced light surface fires and 

frequent, small pulses of fire-induced sediment. Between 900 and 1200 A.D., however, large fire-related debris 

flows occurred in both study areas, coincident with the Medieval Warm Period. During that time, drought may 

have limited grass growth in xeric Payette-region forests, restricting surface fire spread and allowing understory 

shrubs and trees to create ladder fuels. Although fire suppression and land-use effects are clearly involved in 

recent catastrophic fires in the Payette region, a warming climate and severe drought are probable contributors 

to major stand-replacing fires and postfire sedimentation, both past and present. Restoration and maintenance of 

conditions prior to European settlement may be unrealistic because of the potent influence of climate, and the 

incidence of severe fires will likely increase in both areas with future warming. 


Volume 178 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 89-104 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00055-0 

ISSN 0378-1127 

Short Title Climatic Controls on Fire-Induced Sediment Pulses in Yellowstone National Park and Central Idaho 


Extra Keywords: fire; conifers; erosion; debris flows; climate; drought; Yellowstone; Idaho. 



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Climatic controls on historical wildfires in West Virginia, 1939-2008 


Author Cary Lynch 

Author Amy Hessl 

Abstract Interannual climatic variability strongly influences patterns of burning in many regions and this control may 

extend to fire regimes dominated by anthropogenic ignitions or fire suppression. A close linkage between fire 

and climate could reduce the importance of local processes, such as fuel accumulation, structure, species 

composition, and even human land use. Here we: (1) summarize historical fire atlases collected by the West 

Virginia Division of Forestry (1939-2008) in the context of climate and spatial variability; (2) identify the 

seasonal climatic drivers of fire activity in West Virginia; and (3) define the spatial pattern of fire occurrence 

from 2001 to 2008. Between 2001 and 2008, 99.9% of fires were recorded as anthropogenic ignitions. More 

fires tended to burn in the spring, but total area burned was higher in the fall. Same-season precipitation 

accounts for 27.4 to 32.2% of the variance in area burned and number of fires in spring and fall, with low 

precipitation leading to larger numbers and sizes of fires. Large fires (>500 ha) are clustered in the southern 

portion of West Virginia, an area dominated by surface mining (the southern coal fields). This cluster of large 

fires extends into eastern Kentucky and western Virginia and may be the result of steep topography, local land 

use, and a culture of incendiarism. 

Publication Physical Geography 

Volume 31 

Issue 3 

Pages 254–269 

Date May-June 2010 

Journal Abbr Phys. Geogr. 

DOI 10.2747/0272-3646.31.3.254 

ISSN 0272-3646 

URL http://bellwether.metapress.com/content/n232602j6322j3m5/ 

Extra Keywords: wildfire; fire atlas; anthropogenic ignitions; superposed epoch analysis; West Virginia. 



Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA 



Author Valérie Trouet 


Abstract The relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane 

forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to 

measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer 

Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (TEMP), NINO3, a measure of the El Niño–Southern 

Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Fire extent at the site and regional scale was 

associated with dry and warm conditions in the year of the fire and regional fire extent was not associated with 

ENSO or PDO for the full period of analysis. The relationship between regional fire extent and climate was not 

stable over time. The associations of fire extent with PDSI and TEMP were only significant from ~1775 onward 

and the associations were strongest between 1805 and 1855. PDO and fire extent were also associated during 

the 1805–1855 period, and ENSO was associated with fire extent before 1800, but not after. The interannual 

and interdecadal variability of the fire response to temperature and drought suggests that increased periods of 

regional fire activity may occur when high interannual PDSI variation coincides with warm decades. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 60-71 



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DOI 10.1071/WF07033 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: American Pacific coast; climatic variation; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire ecology; Pacific 

Decadal Oscillation. 



Climatic influences on fire regimes in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, 

Nevada, USA 




Abstract • Aim: The goal of this study was to understand better the role of interannual and interdecadal climatic variation 

on local pre-EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes in fire-prone Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.) 

dominated forests in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. • Location: Our study was conducted in a 6000-ha 

area of contiguous mixed Jeffrey pine-white fir (Abies concolor Gordon & Glend.) forest on the western slope 

of the Carson Range on the eastern shore of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. • Methods: Pre-EuroAmerican settlement fire 

regimes (i.e. frequency, return interval, extent, season) were reconstructed in eight contiguous watersheds for a 

200-year period (1650–1850) from fire scars preserved in the annual growth rings of nineteenth century cut 

stumps and recently dead pre-settlement Jeffrey pine trees. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) and correlation 

analysis were used to examine relationships between tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought 

Severity Index (PDSI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and 

pre-EuroAmerican fire regimes in order to assess the influence of drought and equatorial and north Pacific 

teleconnections on fire occurrence and fire extent. • Results: For the entire period of record (1650–1850), wet 

conditions were characteristic of years without fires. In contrast, fire years were associated with drought. 

Drought intensity also influenced fire extent and the most widespread fires occurred in the driest years. Years 

with widespread fires were also preceded by wet conditions 3 years before the fire. Widespread fires were also 

associated with phase changes of the PDO, with the most widespread burns occurring when the phase changed 

from warm (positive) to cold (negative) conditions. Annual SOI and fire frequency or extent were not associated 

in our study. At decadal time scales, burning was more widespread during decades that were dryer and 

characterized by La Ninã and negative PDO conditions. Interannual and interdecadal fire–climate relationships 

were not stable over time. From 1700 to 1775 there was no interannual relationship between drought, PDO, and 

fire frequency or extent. However, from 1775 to 1850, widespread fires were associated with dry years 

preceded by wet years. This period also had the strongest association between fire extent and the PDO. In 

contrast, fire–climate associations at interdecadal time scales were stronger in the earlier period than in the later 

period. The change from strong interdecadal to strong interannual climate influence was associated with a 

breakdown in decadal scale constructive relationships between PDO and SOI. • Main conclusions: Climate 

strongly influenced pre-settlement pine forest fire regimes in northern Sierra Nevada. Both interannual and 

interdecadal climatic variation regulated conditions conducive to fire activity, and longer term changes in fire 

frequency and extent correspond with climate-mediated changes observed in both the northern and southern 

hemispheres. The sensitivity of fire regimes to shifts in modes of climatic variability suggests that climate was a 

key regulator of pine forest ecosystem structure and dynamics before EuroAmerican settlement. An 

understanding of pre-EuroAmerican fire–climate relationships may provide useful insights into how fire activity 

in contemporary forests may respond to future climatic variation. 


Volume 32 

Issue 3 

Pages 425–438 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.01208.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 


Extra Keywords: climatic variation; dendrochronology; drought; El Niño/Southern Oscillation; fire ecology; fire 

regimes; forest dynamics; global change; Jeffrey pine; Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 

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Climatic regionalization and the spatio-temporal occurrence of extreme single-year drought events 

(1500–1998) in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA 


Author Paul A. Knapp 


Author Peter T. Soulé 

Abstract Tree-ring records from western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) growing throughout the 

interior Pacific Northwest identify extreme climatic pointer years (CPYs) (i.e., severe single-year droughts) 

from 1500–1998. Widespread and extreme CPYs were concentrated in the 16th and early part of the 17th 

centuries and did not occur again until the early 20th century. The 217-yr absence of extreme CPYs may have 

occurred during an extended period of low variance in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We mapped climatic 

boundaries for the interior Pacific Northwest based on the location of sites with similar precipitation variability 

indices. Three regions, the Northwest (based on chronologies from nine sites), the Southwest (four sites), and 

the East (five sites) were identified. Our results suggest that western juniper radial growth indices have 

substantial interannual variability within the northwestern range of the species (central Oregon), particularly 

when compared with western juniper growing in its eastern range (eastern Oregon, southeastern Idaho, and 

northern Nevada) and southwestern range (southern Oregon and northeast California). We suspect that the 

substantial differences in the variability of western juniper radial growth indices are linked to the influence of 

ENSO events on winter/spring precipitation amounts. 


Volume 58 

Issue 3 

Pages 226–233 



DOI 10.1006/qres.2002.2376 

ISSN 0033-5894 


Extra Keywords: climatic pointer years; interior Pacific Northwest drought events; climatic regionalization. 



Climatically driven biogeographic provinces of Late Triassic tropical Pangea 


Author Jessica H. Whiteside 

Author Danielle S. Grogan 

Author Paul E. Olsen 

Author Dennis V. Kent 

Abstract Although continents were coalesced into the single landmass Pangea, Late Triassic terrestrial tetrapod 

assemblages are surprisingly provincial. In eastern North America, we show that assemblages dominated by 

traversodont cynodonts are restricted to a humid 6° equatorial swath that persisted for over 20 million years 

characterized by “semiprecessional” (approximately 10,000-y) climatic fluctuations reflected in stable carbon 

isotopes and sedimentary facies in lacustrine strata. More arid regions from 5–20°N preserve procolophoniddominated 

faunal assemblages associated with a much stronger expression of approximately 20,000-y climatic 

cycles. In the absence of geographic barriers, we hypothesize that these variations in the climatic expression of 

astronomical forcing produced latitudinal climatic zones that sorted terrestrial vertebrate taxa, perhaps by 

excretory physiology, into distinct biogeographic provinces tracking latitude, not geographic position, as the 

proto-North American plate translated northward. Although the early Mesozoic is usually assumed to be 

characterized by globally distributed land animal communities due to of a lack of geographic barriers, strong 

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provinciality was actually the norm, and nearly global communities were present only after times of massive 

ecological disruptions. 


Volume 108 

Issue 22 

Pages 8972-8977 

Date May 31, 2011 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1102473108 

ISSN 0027-8424 



Extra Keywords: biotic provinciality; Cynodontia; orbital forcing; Procolophonidae; latitudinal gradient. 



Climatology: Complex, dynamic, and synoptic 


Author Arnold Court 


Publication Annals of the Association of American Geographers 

Volume 47 

Issue 2 

Pages 125–136 


Journal Abbr Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1957.tb01528.x 

ISSN 0004-5608 

Short Title Climatology 




CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion - Highlights 


Author International Energy Agency 

Abstract FOREWORD In the lead-up to the UN climate negotiations in Cancún, the latest information on the level and 

growth of CO₂ emissions, their source and geographic distribution will be essential to lay the foundation for a 

global agreement. To provide input to and support for the UN process, the IEA is making available for free 

download – the “Highlights” version of CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion. The PDF publication and an 

EXCEL file with the tables can be downloaded for free at www.iea.org/co2highlights. Recent years have 

witnessed a fundamental change in the way governments approach energy-related environmental issues. 

Promoting sustainable development and combating climate change have become integral aspects of energy 

planning, analysis and policy making in many countries, including all IEA member states. The purpose of this 

volume is to put our best and most current information in the hands of those who need it, including in particular 

the participants in the UNFCCC process. The IEA Secretariat is a contributor to the official Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies for estimating greenhouse-gas emissions. The IEA’s basic 

energy balance data are the figures most often cited in the field. For these reasons, we felt it appropriate to 

publish this information in a comprehensive form. These data are only for energy-related CO₂, not for any other 

greenhouse gases. Thus they may differ from countries' official submissions of emissions inventories to the 

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UNFCCC Secretariat. However, the full-scale study contains data for CO₂ from non-energy-related sources and 

gas flaring, and emissions of CH₄, N₂O, HFC, PFC and SF₆. In addition, the full-scale study also includes 

information on “Key Sources” from fuel combustion, as developed in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and 

Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This report is published under my 

responsibility as Executive Director of the IEA and does not necessarily reflect the views of IEA member 

countries. 

Report Type To provide input to and support for the UN process 

Place Paris, France 

Institution International Energy Agency (IEA) 

Date 2010 

Pages 121 p. 

URL http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/ 

Library Catalog International Energy Agency (IEA) 



Co₂ Trends 

Type Web Page 

Author NOAA ESRL 

Website Title CO₂ 

Website Type ftp 

Date 2011 

URL ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 



Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic 


Author Robert A. Monserud 

Author Rik Leemans 

Abstract The Kappa statistic is presented as an objective tool for comparing global vegetation maps. Such maps can result 

from either compilations of observed spatial patterns or from simulations from models that are global in scope. 

The method is illustrated by comparing global maps resulting from applying a modified Holdridge Life Zone 

Classification to current climate and several climate change scenarios (CO₂ doubling). These scenarios were 

based on the results of several different general circulation models (GCMs). The direction of change in 

simulated vegetation patterns between different GCMs was found to be quite similar for all future projections. 

Although there were differences in magnitude and extent, all simulations indicate potential for enormous 

ecological change. The Kappa statistic proved to be a useful and straightforward measure of agreement between 

the different global vegetation maps. Furthermore, Kappa statistics for individual vegetation zones clearly 

indicated differences and similarities between those maps. The Kappa statistic was found to be most useful for 

rank ordering of agreement, both across a series of maps and across the various vegetation zones within a map. 


Volume 62 

Issue 4 

Pages 275-293 



DOI 10.1016/0304-3800(92)90003-W 

ISSN 0304-3800 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBS-48YNVM2-MG/2/0ca895bdf35aad4ed89477a565bd28ff 

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Comparing selected fire regime condition class (FRCC) and LANDFIRE vegetation model results with 

tree-ring data 


Author Tyson L. Swetnam 


Abstract Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) has been developed as a nationally consistent interagency method in the 

US to assess degree of departure between historical and current fire regimes and vegetation structural conditions 

across differing vegetation types. Historical and existing vegetation map data also are being developed for the 

nationwide LANDFIRE project to aid in FRCC assessments. Here, we compare selected FRCC and 

LANDFIRE vegetation characteristics derived from simulation modeling with similar characteristics 

reconstructed from tree-ring data collected from 11 forested sites in Utah. Reconstructed reference conditions 

based on trees present in 1880 compared with reference conditions modeled by the Vegetation Dynamics 

Development Tool for individual Biophysical Settings (BpS) used in FRCC and LANDFIRE assessments 

showed significance relationships for ponderosa pine, aspen, and mixed-conifer BpS but not for spruce–fir, 

piñon–juniper, or lodgepole pine BpS. LANDFIRE map data were found to be ~58% accurate for BpS and 

~60% accurate for existing vegetation types. Results suggest that limited sampling of age-to-size relationships 

by different species may be needed to help refine reference condition definitions used in FRCC assessments, 

and that more empirical data are needed to better parameterize FRCC vegetation models in especially 

low-frequency fire types. 


Volume 19 

Issue 1 

Pages 1-13 



DOI 10.1071/WF08001 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: reference conditions; successional classes; Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT). 



Comparing the role of fuel breaks across southern California national forests 


Author Alexandra D. Syphard 


Author Teresa J. Brennan 

Abstract Fuel treatment of wildland vegetation is the primary approach advocated for mitigating fire risk at the 

wildland–urban interface (WUI), but little systematic research has been conducted to understand what role fuel 

treatments play in controlling large fires, which factors influence this role, or how the role of fuel treatments 

may vary over space and time. We assembled a spatial database of fuel breaks and fires from the last 30 years in 

four southern California national forests to better understand which factors are consistently important for fuel 

breaks in the control of large fires. We also explored which landscape features influence where fires and fuel 

breaks are most likely to intersect. The relative importance of significant factors explaining fuel break outcome 

and number of fire and fuel break intersections varied among the forests, which reflects high levels of regional 

landscape diversity. Nevertheless, several factors were consistently important across all the forests. In general, 

fuel breaks played an important role in controlling large fires only when they facilitated fire management, 

primarily by providing access for firefighting activities. Fire weather and fuel break maintenance were also 

consistently important. Models and maps predicting where fuel breaks and fires are most likely to intersect 

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performed well in the regions where the models were developed, but these models did not extend well to other 

regions, reflecting how the environmental controls of fire regimes vary even within a single ecoregion. 

Nevertheless, similar mapping methods could be adopted in different landscapes to help with strategic location 

of fuel breaks. Strategic location of fuel breaks should also account for access points near communities, where 

fire protection is most important. 


Volume 261 

Issue 11 

Pages 2038-2048 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.02.030 

ISSN 0378-1127 



Extra Keywords: structural equation model; fuel treatment; national forest; wildland–urban interface; firefighting; fire 

management. 



Comparison of burn severity assessments using Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio and ground data 


Author Allison E. Cocke 

Author Peter Z. Fulé 

Author Joseph E. Crouse 

Abstract Burn severity can be mapped using satellite data to detect changes in forest structure and moisture content 

caused by fires. The 2001 Leroux fire on the Coconino National Forest, Arizona, burned over 18 pre-existing 

permanent 0.1 ha plots. Plots were re-measured following the fire. Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and the 

Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (ΔNBR) were used to map the fire into four severity levels immediately 

following the fire (July 2001) and 1 year after the fire (June 2002). Ninety-two Composite Burn Index (CBI) 

plots were compared to the fire severity maps. Pre- and post-fire plot measurements were also analysed 

according to their imagery classification. Ground measurements demonstrated differences in forest structure. 

Areas that were classified as severely burned on the imagery were predominantly Pinus ponderosa stands. Tree 

density and basal area, snag density and fine fuel accumulation were associated with severity levels. Tree 

mortality was not greatest in severely burned areas, indicating that the ΔNBR is comprehensive in rating burn 

severity by incorporating multiple forest strata. While the ΔNBR was less accurate at mapping perimeters, the 

method was reliable for mapping severely burned areas that may need immediate or long-term post-fire 

recovery. 


Volume 14 

Issue 2 

Pages 189-198 

Date May 2005 


DOI 10.1071/WF04010 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: Arizona; mixed conifer forest; ponderosa pine. 



Comparison of charcoal and tree-ring records of recent fires in the eastern Klamath Mountains, 

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Author Jerry A. Mohr 

Abstract Fire-history reconstructions are based on tree-ring records that span the last few centuries and charcoal data 

from lake-sediment cores that extend back several thousand years. The two approaches have unique strengths 

and weaknesses in their ability to depict past fire events and fire regimes, and most comparisons of these 

datasets in western conifer forests have focused on sites characterized by high-severity crown fires. Tree-ring 

and charcoal data spanning the last 300 years in four watersheds in the montane forests of the Klamath 

Mountains provided an opportunity to compare the records in a fire regime of frequent low- to moderateseverity 

surface events. The charcoal data were obtained from small lakes, and tree-ring records were derived 

from fire-scar chronologies at multiple sites within each watershed. The comparison indicates that the tree-ring 

records detected individual fires not evident in the lake-sediment profiles, whereas the charcoal data disclosed 

variations in fuel loading and general levels of burning at broader spatial scales. Regional burning in the late 

19th and early 20th centuries was evident in the lake-sediment records, and both datasets registered a decline in 

fire activity in the late 20th century. Thus, the two types of data provide complementary as well as 

supplementary information on past fire conditions. 


Volume 34 

Issue 10 

Pages 2110–2121 



DOI 10.1139/X04-084 

ISSN 1208-6037 




Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, 

climate and weather 


Author Geoffrey J. Cary 

Author Robert E. Keane 

Author Robert H. Gardner 

Author Sandra Lavorel 


Author Ian D. Davies 

Author Chao Li 



Author Florent Mouillot 

Abstract The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors 

across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to 

variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely 

clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was 

determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and 

SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was 

measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions 

amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to 

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climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive 

to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through 

warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the 

observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for 

EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and 

weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a 

small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that 

represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four 

factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned. 


Volume 21 

Issue 1 

Pages 121–137 



DOI 10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9 

ISSN 0921-2973 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/q444q4lj2q7p017u/ 

Extra Keywords: EMBYR; FIRESCAPE; LAMOS; LANDSUM; model comparison; SEM-LAND; simulation 

modelling. 



Composition, structure and dynamics of Dysart Woods, an old-growth mixed mesophytic forest of 

southeastern Ohio 


Author Brian C. McCarthy 

Author Christine J. Small 

Author Darrin L. Rubino 

Abstract Dysart Woods is a 23 ha old-growth remnant of mixed mesophytic vegetation located in southeastern Ohio, 

USA. A designation of mixed mesophytic for this forest has historically been difficult, in part due to the 

abundance of white oak (Quercus alba); however, the dominance of a variety of other hardwoods prevents a 

simple oak forest designation. Using two 0.35 ha plots on opposing north- and south-facing slopes, we describe 

the structure and composition of the overstory, understory, and soils, 30 years after their first examination. In 

1970, the woods was dominated by beech (Fagus grandifolia), white oak, and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) — 

historically, the three most abundant species in this region. At that time, white oak was only present in the 

largest size classes, was not regenerating, and was predicted to decline in importance through succession. These 

patterns continue today suggesting that inferences made via overstory–understory relations in regards to forest 

succession are relatively robust over this time period. Beech and maple have increased in importance; white oak 

has decreased in importance due to mortality in the larger size classes and decreasing density due to 

regeneration failure. Coarse woody debris distributions correlated strongly with living stem species’ composition 

and structure implying an equilibrium balance. CWD volume and frequency were dominated by Quercus spp. A 

detailed analysis of forest health showed that all oak species were in severe decline. The oaks are in a disease 

decline spiral affiliated with a variety of pre-disposing and inciting factors which include their advanced age 

(>300 years), their large size (> 100 cm DBH), topography, chronic air pollution, drought, and Armillaria root 

rot fungus. Ca:Al molar ratios in the soil are also extremely low (


patches. The hardwood forests of the hills region has been heavily impacted by various human cultures for 

thousands of years. Dendrochronological analysis of a full basal slab cut from a wind-thrown white oak revealed 

a fairly active period of fire following European settlement. A lack of fire during the early 1600s to mid 1700s 

suggests that pre-Anglo fire frequency may have been negligible. There is clearly a continued role for the 

preservation and study of these old-growth remnants. They remain integrally important as we attempt to 

understand and better manage our remaining anthropogenically disturbed landscape. 


Volume 140 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 193–213 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00280-2 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: forest succession; stand dynamics; disturbance; old-growth; coarse woody debris; fire ecology. 



Concerning the cause of the general trade-winds 


Author George Hadley 


Publication Philosophical Transactions 

Volume 39 

Issue 1735 - 1736 ( Number 437) 

Pages 58–62 


Journal Abbr Phil. Trans. 

DOI 10.1098/rstl.1735.0014 

ISSN 0260-7085 




Confronting climate change in the US Northeast: Science, impacts, and solutions 


Author Peter C. Frumhoff 

Author James J. McCarthy 

Author Jerry M. Melillo 

Author Susanne C. Moser 

Author Donald J. Wuebbles 

Abstract The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaborative effort between the Union of Concerned 

Scientists (UCS) and a team of independent experts to develop and communicate a new assessment of climate 

change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors in the northeastern United States. The goal of 

the assessment is to combine state-of-the-art analyses with effective outreach to provide opinion leaders, policy 

makers, and the public with the best available science upon which to base informed choices about climatechange 

mitigation and adaptation. 

Report Type Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) 

Place Cambridge, MA 

136 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Notes: 

Citation: 

Institution Union of Concerned Scientists 


Pages 146 p. 

URL http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org 

Rights © 2007 Union of Concerned Scientists 

Extra Keywords: climate; climate change; Connecticut; impacts; Maine; Massachusetts; NECIA; New England; New 

Hampshire; New York; northeast; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; Vermont. 



Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: 

Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of 

Concerned Scientists (UCS). 

Constraints on the numerical age of the Paleocene-Eocene boundary 


Author Adam J. Charles 

Author Daniel J. Condon 

Author Ian C. Harding 

Author Heiko Pälike 

Author John E. A. Marshall 

Author Ying Cui 

Author Lee Kump 

Author Ian W. Croudace 

Abstract Here we present combined radioisotopic dating (U-Pb zircon) and cyclostratigraphic analysis of the carbon 

isotope excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene (P-E) boundary in Spitsbergen to determine the numerical age of the 

boundary. Incorporating the total uncertainty from both radioisotopic and cyclostratigraphic data sets gives an 

age ranging from 55.728 to 55.964 Ma, within error of a recently proposed astronomical age of ~55.93 Ma. 

Combined with the assumption that the Paleocene Epoch spans twenty-five 405 kyr cycles, our new age for the 

boundary suggests an age of ~66 Ma for the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Furthermore, our P-E boundary 

age is consistent with the hypothesis that the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum at the boundary 

occurred on the falling limb of a 405 kyr cycle, suggesting the event was initiated by a different mechanism to 

that which triggered the other early Eocene hyperthermals. 

Publication Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 

Volume 12 

Issue 6 

Pages Q0AA17 (19 p.) 


Journal Abbr Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 

DOI 10.1029/2010GC003426 

ISSN 1525-2027 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010GC003426.shtml 

Extra Keywords: Paleocene; Eocene; PETM; cyclostratigraphy; radioisotopic dating; Spitsbergen. 



Contemporary fire regimes of northern Australia, 1997–2001: Change since Aboriginal occupancy, 

137 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


challenges for sustainable management 


Author Jeremy Russell-Smith 

Author Cameron Yates 

Author Andrew Edwards 

Author Grant E. Allan 

Author Garry D. Cook 

Author Peter Cooke 

Author Ron Craig 

Author Belinda Heath 

Author Richard Smith 

Abstract Considerable research has been undertaken over the past two decades to apply remote sensing to the study of 

fire regimes across the savannas of northern Australia. This work has focused on two spatial scales of imagery 

resolution: coarse-resolution NOAA-AVHRR imagery for savanna-wide assessments both of the daily 

distribution of fires ('hot spots'), and cumulative mapping of burnt areas ('fire-scars') over the annual cycle; and 

fine-resolution Landsat imagery for undertaking detailed assessments of regional fire regimes. Importantly, 

substantial effort has been given to the validation of fire mapping products at both scales of resolution. At the 

savanna-wide scale, fire mapping activities have established that: (1) contrary to recent perception, from a 

national perspective the great majority of burning in any one year typically occurs in the tropical savannas; (2) 

the distribution of burning across the savannas is very uneven, occurring mostly in sparsely settled, higher 

rainfall, northern coastal and subcoastal regions (north-west Kimberley, Top End of the Northern Territory, 

around the Gulf of Carpentaria) across a variety of major land uses (pastoral, conservation, indigenous); 

whereas (3) limited burning is undertaken in regions with productive soils supporting more intensive pastoral 

management, particularly in Queensland; and (4) on a seasonal basis, most burning occurs in the latter half of 

the dry season, typically as uncontrolled wildfire. Decadal fine-resolution fire histories have also been 

assembled from multi-scene Landsat imagery for a number of fire-prone large properties (e.g. Kakadu and 

Nitmiluk National Parks) and local regions (e.g. Sturt Plateau and Victoria River District, Northern Territory). 

These studies have facilitated more refined description of various fire regime parameters (fire extent, 

seasonality, frequency, interval, patchiness) and, as dealt with elsewhere in this special issue, associated 

ecological assessments. This paper focuses firstly on the patterning of contemporary fire regimes across the 

savanna landscapes of northern Australia, and then addresses the implications of these data for our 

understanding of changes in fire regime since Aboriginal occupancy, and implications of contemporary patterns 

on biodiversity and emerging greenhouse issues. 


Volume 12 

Issue 4 

Pages 283-297 



DOI 10.1071/WF03015 

ISSN 1049-8001 

Short Title Contemporary fire regimes of northern Australia, 1997–2001 




Contingent Pacific–Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North 

America 






138 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Abstract Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America 

during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding 

relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such 

as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal 

Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental 

scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North 

America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the 

relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar 

dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and 

subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner 

contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad 

subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly 

synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of 

high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength 

and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend 

in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in 

coming decades. 


Volume 104 

Issue 2 

Pages 543-548 

Date January 9, 2007 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606078104 

ISSN 1091-6490 (online) 


Extra Keywords: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; El Niño Southern Oscillation; fire history network; ocean 

warming; Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 



Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century 




Author Erica A. H. Smithwick 



Abstract Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven 

changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial 

location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) 

(Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, 

high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to 

the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated 

and then used with downscaled (~12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to 

predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in 

fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to


Volume 108 

Issue 32 

Pages 13165-13170 

Date August 9, 2011 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1110199108 

ISSN 0027-8424 




Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves 


Author Adriaan J. Teuling 

Author Sonia I. Seneviratne 

Author Reto Stöckli 

Author Markus Reichstein 

Author Eddy Moors 


Author Sebastiaan Luyssaert 

Author Bart van den Hurk 

Author Christof Ammann 

Author Christian Bernhofer 

Author Ebba Dellwik 

Author Damiano Gianelle 

Author Bert Gielen 

Author Thomas Grünwald 

Author Katja Klumpp 

Author Leonardo Montagnani 

Author Christine Moureaux 

Author Matteo Sottocornola 

Author Georg Wohlfahrt 

Abstract Recent European heatwaves have raised interest in the impact of land cover conditions on temperature 

extremes. At present, it is believed that such extremes are enhanced by stronger surface heating of the 

atmosphere, when soil moisture content is below average. However, the impact of land cover on the exchange 

of water and energy and the interaction of this exchange with the soil water balance during heatwaves is largely 

unknown. Here we analyse observations from an extensive network of flux towers in Europe that reveal a 

difference between the temporal responses of forest and grassland ecosystems during heatwaves. We find that 

initially, surface heating is twice as high over forest than over grassland. Over grass, heating is suppressed by 

increased evaporation in response to increased solar radiation and temperature. Ultimately, however, this 

process accelerates soil moisture depletion and induces a critical shift in the regional climate system that leads 

to increased heating. We propose that this mechanism may explain the extreme temperatures in August 2003. 

We conclude that the conservative water use of forest contributes to increased temperatures in the short term, 

but mitigates the impact of the most extreme heat and/or long-lasting events. 


Volume 3 

Issue 10 

Pages 722-727 

Date 9/2010 

Journal Abbr Nature Geosci 

DOI 10.1038/ngeo950 

ISSN 1752-0894 

140 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM




Date Added Saturday, March 19, 2011 11:02:31 AM 


Attachments 

Teuling et al_European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves_Nature Geoscience_2010.pdf 

The forest paradox during heatwaves 

Contribution of anthropogenic land cover change emissions to pre-industrial atmospheric CO₂ 


Author Christian H. Reick 

Author Thomas Raddatz 

Author Julia Pongratz 

Author Martin Claussen 

Abstract Based on a recent reconstruction of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC), we derive the associated CO₂ 

emissions since 800 AD by two independent methods: a bookkeeping approach and a process model. The results 

are compared with the pre-industrial development of atmospheric CO₂ known from antarctic ice cores. Our 

results show that pre-industrial CO₂ emissions from ALCC have been relevant for the pre-industrial carbon 

cycle, although before 1750 AD their trace in atmospheric CO₂ is obscured by other processes of similar 

magnitude. After 1750 AD, the situation is different: the steep increase in atmospheric CO₂ until 1850 AD—this 

is before fossil fuel emissions rose to significant values—is to a substantial part explained by growing emissions 

from ALCC. 

Publication Tellus B (Special Issue) 

Volume 62 

Issue 5 

Pages 329-336 



DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00479.x 

ISSN 0280-6509 


Extra Special Issue with Manuscripts Presented at the 8th International Carbon Dioxide Conference, ICDC 8, in Jena, 

Germany 13-19 September 2009 



Copenhagen accord pledges are paltry 


Author Joeri Rogelj 

Author Julia Nabel 

Author Claudine Chen 

Author William Hare 

Author Kathleen Markmann 


Author Michiel Schaeffer 

Author Kirsten Macey 

Author Niklas Höhne 

141 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract Current national emissions targets can’t limit global warming to 2 °C, calculate Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen 

and colleagues — they might even lock the world into exceeding 3 °C warming. Summary: • Nations will 

probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international 

agreement • Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalents surplus allowances for use after 

2012 • Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO₂-eq per year • Global 

emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than today • Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance 

that warming will exceed 3°C by 2100 • If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance 

that warming will exceed 2°C and will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C 


Volume 464 

Issue 7292 

Pages 1126-1128 

Date 22 April 2010 


DOI 10.1038/4641126a 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/4641126a 



Coupled climate-carbon simulations indicate minor global effects of wars and epidemics on atmospheric 

CO₂ between AD 800 and 1850 


Author Julia Pongratz 

Author Ken Caldeira 

Author Christian H. Reick 


Abstract Historic events such as wars and epidemics have been suggested as explanation for decreases in atmospheric 

CO₂ reconstructed from ice cores because of their potential to take up carbon in forests regrowing on 

abandoned agricultural land. Here, we use a coupled climate–carbon cycle model to assess the carbon and 

climate effects of the Mongol invasion (~1200 to ~1380), the Black Death (~1347 to ~1400), the conquest of 

the Americas (~1519 to ~1700), and the fall of the Ming Dynasty (~1600 to ~1650). We calculate their impact 

on atmospheric CO₂ including the response of the global land and ocean carbon pools. It has been hypothesized 

that these events have contributed to significant increases in land carbon stocks. However, we find that slow 

regrowth and delayed emissions from past land cover change allow for small increases of the land biosphere 

carbon storage only during long-lasting events. The effect of these small increases in land biosphere storage on 

global CO₂ is reduced by the response of the global carbon pools and largely offset by concurrent emissions 

from the rest of the world. None of these events would therefore have affected the atmospheric CO₂ 

concentration by more than 1 ppm. Only the Mongol invasion could have lowered global CO₂, but by an amount 

too small to be resolved by ice cores. 


Volume Published online before print 



DOI 10.1177/0959683610386981 

ISSN 0959-6836 


Extra Keywords: carbon cycle; climate; historic events; land cover change; land use; last millennium. 



142 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes 


Author Donald A. Falk 

Author Carol Miller 


Author Anne E. Black 

Abstract Cross-scale spatial and temporal perspectives are important for studying contagious landscape disturbances such 

as fire, which are controlled by myriad processes operating at different scales. We examine fire regimes in 

forests of western North America, focusing on how observed patterns of fire frequency change across spatial 

scales. To quantify changes in fire frequency across spatial scale, we derive the event-area (EA) relationship 

and the analogous interval-area (IA) relationship using historical and simulated data from low- and highseverity 

fire regimes. The EA and IA provide multiscale descriptions of fire regimes, as opposed to standard metrics that 

may apply only at a single scale. Parameters and properties of scaling functions (intercept, slope, minimum 

value) are associated statistically with properties of the fire regime, such as mean fire-free intervals and fire size 

distributions, but are not direct mathematical transformations of them because they also reflect mechanistic 

drivers of fire that are non-stationary in time and space. Patterns in fire-scaling relations can be used to identify 

how controls on fire regimes change across spatial and temporal scales. Future research that considers fire as a 

cross-scale process will be directly applicable to landscape-scale fire management. 


Volume 10 

Issue 5 

Pages 809–823 



DOI 10.1007/s10021-007-9070-7 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/d33g467831737200/fulltext.html 

Extra Keywords: landscape fire; fire regime; eventarea relationship; interval-area relationship; multiscale analysis; 

simulation models; neutral models; climate regime; SIMPPLLE. 



Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: Implications for policy 


Author Niel H. A. Bowerman 

Author David J. Frame 

Author Chris Huntingford 

Author Jason A. Lowe 


Abstract A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and 

cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter 

periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with 

the concept of a ‘floor’ in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the 

introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some 

warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4°C, cumulative 

emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming 

regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 

2100. The maximum rate of CO₂-induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to 

climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. 

Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple 

framework for CO₂ mitigation policy. 

Publication Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 

143 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 45-66 


Journal Abbr Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 

DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0288 

ISSN 1364-503X 

URL http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rsta.2010.0288 

Extra Keywords: cumulative emissions; emissions floors; rate of warming; climate change. 



Data rescue initiatives: Bringing historical climate data into the 21st century 


Author Manola Brunet 

Author Phil Jones 

Abstract The currently limited availability of long and high-quality surface instrumental climate records continues to 

hamper our ability to carry out more robust assessments of the climate. Such assessments are needed to better 

understand, detect, predict and respond to global climate variability and change. Despite the wealthy heritage of 

past climate data and recent efforts to improve data availability and accessibility, much more surface data could 

be digitised. Additionally, some long records are not of the quality needed for more confidently supporting any 

climate assessment, service, or application. The present paper discusses the usefulness of undertaking integrated 

data rescue (DARE) activities by showing several climate assessments as examples. It describes emerging 

DARE activities worldwide, with a focus on the World Meteorological Organization Mediterranean Data 

Rescue (MEDARE) and the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiatives to 

assess the benefits historical instrumental climate data can bring to studies of climate variability and change that 

consider the 21st century. 

Publication Climate Research 

Volume 47 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 29-40 


Journal Abbr Clim. Res. 

DOI 10.3354/cr00960 

ISSN 0936-577X 

Short Title Data rescue initiatives 

URL http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v47/n1-2/p29-40/ 


Extra Keywords: climate change; instrumental period; climate assessments; data rescue; integrated DARE; 

high-quality climate data development; WMO/MEDARE initiative; ACRE initiative. 



Data.GISS: GISS surface temperature analysis: 2010 how warm was this summer? 

Type Web Page 

Author GISS NASA 

Website Title GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) 

Website Type Media 

URL http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2010summer/ 


144 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability 



Author Tim P. Barnett 

Abstract The dynamics and predictability of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America are 

investigated by analyzing various observational datasets and the output of a state of the art coupled oceanatmosphere 

general circulation model that was integrated for 125 years. Both the observations and model results 

support the picture that the decadal variability in the region of interest is based on a cycle involving unstable 

ocean-atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific. The period of this cycle is of the order of a few 

decades.The cycle involves the two major circulation regimes in the North Pacific climate system, the 

subtropical ocean gyre, and the Aleutian low. When, for instance, the subtropical ocean gyre is anomalously 

strong, more warm tropical waters are transported poleward by the Kuroshio and its extension, leading to a 

positive SST anomaly in the North Pacific. The atmospheric response to this SST anomaly involves a weakened 

Aleutian low, and the associated fluxes at the air-sea interface reinforce the initial SST anomaly, so that ocean 

and atmosphere act as a positive feedback system. The anomalous heat flux, reduced ocean mixing in response 

to a weakened storm track, and anonmalous Ekman heat transport contribute to this positive feedback.The 

atmospheric response, however, consists also of a wind stress curl anomaly that spins down the subtropical 

ocean gyre, thereby reducing the poleward heat transport and the initial SST anomaly. The ocean adjusts with 

some time lag to the change in the wind stress curl, and it is this transient ocean response that allows continuous 

oscillations. The transient response can be expressed in terms of baroclinic planetary waves, and the decadal 

timescale of the oscillation is therefore determined to first order by wave timescales. Advection by the mean 

currents, however, is not negligible.The existence of such a cycle provides the basis of long-range climate 

forecasting over North America at decadal timescales. At a minimum, knowledge of the present phase of the 

decadal mode should allow a `now-cast' of expected climate `bias' over North America, which is equivalent to a 

climate forecast several years ahead. 


Volume 9 

Issue 10 

Pages 2407-2423 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)0092.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0442 

Short Title Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America 


/1520-0442%281996%29009%3C2407%3ADCVOTN%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? 



Author Lisa Goddard 

Author James Murphy 

Author Ronald J. Stouffer 

Author George Boer 

Author Gokhan Danabasoglu 

Author Keith Dixon 

Author Marco A. Giorgetta 

Author Arthur M. Greene 

145 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Author Ed Hawkins 

Author Gabriele Hegerl 

Author David Karoly 

Author Noel Keenlyside 

Author Masahide Kimoto 

Author Ben Kirtman 

Author Antonio Navarra 

Author Roger Pulwarty 

Author Doug Smith 

Author Detlef Stammer 

Author Timothy Stockdale 

Abstract A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between 

seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving 

regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs 

have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many 

others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At 

least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change 

commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of 

greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of 

greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal 

prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that 

initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, 

thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for 

initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving 

three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address 

decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated 

Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the 

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the 

next 5 yr. 


Volume 90 

Issue 10 

Pages 1467-1485 



DOI 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 

ISSN 0003-0007 




Decadal trends in net ecosystem production and net ecosystem carbon balance for a regional 

socioecological system 


Author David P. Turner 

Author William D. Ritts 

Author Zhiqiang Yang 

Author Robert E. Kennedy 

Author Warren B. Cohen 

Author Maureen V. Duane 

Author Peter E. Thornton 

Author Beverly E. Law 

146 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract Carbon sequestration is increasingly recognized as an ecosystem service, and forest management has a large 

potential to alter regional carbon fluxes - notably by way of harvest removals and related impacts on net 

ecosystem production (NEP). In the Pacific Northwest region of the US, the implementation of the Northwest 

Forest Plan (NWFP) in 1993 established a regional socioecological system focused on forest management. The 

NWFP resulted in a large (82%) decrease in the rate of harvest removals on public forest land, thus significantly 

impacting the regional carbon balance. Here we use a combination of remote sensing and ecosystem modeling 

to examine the trends in NEP and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) in this region over the 1985-2007 

period, with particular attention to land ownership since management now differs widely between public and 

private forestland. In the late 1980s, forestland in both ownership classes was subject to high rates of harvesting, 

and consequently the land was a carbon source (i.e. had a negative NECB). After the policy driven reduction in 

the harvest level, public forestland became a large carbon sink - driven in part by increasing NEP - whereas 

private forestland was close to carbon neutral. In the 2003-2007 period, the trend towards carbon accumulation 

on public lands continued despite a moderate increase in the extent of wildfire. The NWFP was originally 

implemented in the context of biodiversity conservation, but its consequences in terms of carbon sequestration 

are also of societal interest. Ultimately, management within the NWFP socioecological system will have to 

consider trade-offs among these and other ecosystem services. 


Volume 262 

Issue 7 

Pages 1318-1325 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.034 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: carbon sequestration; net ecosystem production; Pacific Northwest Forest Plan; regional; ecosystem 

services; socioecological system. 



Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation 


Author James W. Hurrell 

Author Harry van Loon 

Abstract Large changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation have occurred over the past two decades over the 

ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere, and these changes have had a profound effect on regional 

distributions of surface temperature and precipitation. The changes over the North Pacific have been well 

documented and have contributed to increases in temperatures across Alaska and much of western North 

America and to decreases in sea surface temperatures over the central North Pacific. The variations over the 

North Atlantic are related to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the past 130 years, the 

NAO has exhibited considerable variability at quasibiennial and quasi-decadal time scales, and the latter have 

become especially pronounced the second half of this century. Since 1980, the NAO has tended to remain in 

one extreme phase and has accounted for a substantial part of the observed wintertime surface warming over 

Europe and downstream over Eurasia and cooling in the northwest Atlantic. Anomalies in precipitation, 

including dry wintertime conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and wetter-than-normal 

conditions over northern Europe and Scandinavia since 1980, are also linked to the behavior of the NAO. 

Changes in the monthly mean flow over the Atlantic are accompanied by a northward shift in the storm tracks 

and associated synoptic eddy activity, and these changes help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous mean 

circulation in the upper troposphere. It is important that studies of trends in local climate records, such as those 

from high elevation sites, recognize the presence of strong regional patterns of change associated with 

phenomena like the NAO. 


Volume 36 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 301–326 


147 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



DOI 10.1023/A:1005314315270 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/kxu9mtn46t65k160/ 



Deep-soil savannas and barrens of the Midwestern United States (Chapter 9) 


Author Roser C. Anderson 

Author Marlin L. Bowles 


Book Title Savannas, Barrens, and Rock Outcrop Plant Communities of North America 


Place Cambridge, UK; New York, NY 


Date 1999 

Pages 155–170 

ISBN 052157322X, 9780521573221 

URL http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf? 

bid=CBO9780511574627&… 



Related 

Savannas, barrens, and rock outcrop plant communities of North America 

Deepwater formation in the North Pacific during the Last Glacial Termination 


Author Yusuke Okazaki 

Author Axel Timmermann 

Author Laurie Menviel 

Author Naomi Harada 

Author Ayako Abe-Ouchi 

Author Megumi O. Chikamoto 

Author Anne Mouchet 

Author Hirofumi Asahi 

Abstract Between ~17,500 and 15,000 years ago, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakened substantially 

in response to meltwater discharges from disintegrating Northern Hemispheric glacial ice sheets. The global 

effects of this reorganization of poleward heat flow in the North Atlantic extended to Antarctica and the North 

Pacific. Here we present evidence from North Pacific paleo surface proxy data, a compilation of marine 

radiocarbon age ventilation records, and global climate model simulations to suggest that during the early stages 

of the Last Glacial Termination, deep water extending to a depth of ~2500 to 3000 meters was formed in the 

North Pacific. A switch of deepwater formation between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific played a key 

role in regulating poleward oceanic heat transport during the Last Glacial Termination. 


Volume 329 

Issue 5988 

Pages 200-204 


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DOI 10.1126/science.1190612 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Delineation of ecosystem regions 



Abstract As a means of developing reliable estimates of ecosystem productivity, ecosystem classification needs to be 

placed within a geographical framework of regions or zones. This paper explains the basis for the regions 

delineated on the 1976 mapEcoregions of the United States. Four ecological levels are discussed—domain, 

division, province, and section—based on climatic and vegetational criteria. Statistical tests are needed to verify 

and refine map units. 

Publication Environmental Management 

Volume 7 

Issue 4 

Pages 365-373 


Journal Abbr Environ. Manage. 

DOI 10.1007/BF01866919 

ISSN 0364-152X 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01866919 

Extra Keywords: ecoregions; ecosystems; ecological land classification; mapping; site production. 



Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts 


Author Daniel F. Doak 

Author William F. Morris 

Abstract To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the 

Earth’s climate warms. However, although many species’ ranges have shifted in historical times, many others 

have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather 

than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for 

species’ vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their 

ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming 

continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of 

two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward 

range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species 

showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer 

growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern 

populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove 

detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest 

years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, 

range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify 

nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded. 


Volume 467 

Issue 7318 

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Pages 959-962 



DOI 10.1038/nature09439 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Demography and fire history of a western juniper stand 


Author James A. Young 

Author Raymond A. Evans 

Abstract The age, density, and fire history of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) trees growing on range sites 

of contrasting potentials were investigated. The l,OOO-ha study area consisted of 65% big sagebrush Artemisia 

tridentata Nutt. subsp. wyomingensis (Rybd.) Beetle and 30% low sagebrush (A. arbuscula Nutt.) plant 

communities. Density of western juniper trees was 150 and 28 trees/ha on the big and low sagebrush sites, 

respectively. The oldest western juniper found growing in the big sagebrush communities became established in 

1855, and 84% of the existing trees became established between 1890 and 1920. The oldest trees on the low 

sagebrush sites had established by 1600, and most of the existing trees established before 1800. At the beginning 

of the 20th century, the western juniper populations on big sagebrush sites were doubling in density every 3 

years. The rate of establishment on these sites has slowed until 1,370 years would now be required to double the 

population size. The rate of population growth on low sagebrush sites has varied from decade to decade with a 

trend to double the population every 200 years and trees that become senescent at about 400 years of age. 

About 0.4%~ of western juniper on the low sagebrush sites had fire scars, some of which indicated the 

occurrence of multiple fires. These fire scars indicated that since 1600 there were periods of up to 90 years 

when no fires scarred the trees. Changes in the frequency of wildfires appear to be the most logical explanation 

for the sudden invasion of trees into big sagebrush communities, but current technologies for reconstructing fire 

chronologies are woefully inadequate in this environment. 

Publication Journal of Range Management 

Volume 34 

Issue 6 

Pages 501–506 


Journal Abbr J. Range Manage. 

DOI 10.2307/3898108 

ISSN 0022-409X 




Dendrochronology of a fire-scarred ponderosa pine 


Author John H. Dieterich 


Abstract Historical fire frequency in a stand of southwestern ponderosa pine has been documented in a master fire 

chronology developed for a prescribed burning study area in Arizona. One of the 12 specimens used to assemble 

this chronology was a small, suppressed tree that contained 42 fire scars. Standard crossdating techniques were 

used to date the fire scars accurately, locate missing and locally absent rings, and identify special problems 

relating to analysis and dating of this unusual specimen. Mean fire interval for the study area was about 2 years; 

mean fire interval for the individual specimen was 4 years for the 178-year period, 1722-1900. 

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Publication Forest Science 

Volume 30 

Issue 1 

Pages 238–247 

Date 1 March 1984 

Journal Abbr Forest Sci. 

ISSN 0015-749X 

URL http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/fs/1984/00000030/00000001/art00035 

Extra Keywords: fire history; fire interval; fire frequency. 



Dendroclimatological analysis and fire history of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in the Atlantic and 

Gulf Coastal Plain 

Type Thesis 

Author Joseph P. Henderson 

Abstract The purpose of this research was to use longleaf pine trees at three major sites in the Southeastern Coastal Plain 

to: (1) determine how longleaf pine trees respond to climate, (2) reconstruct past climate conditions using long 

tree-ring chronologies, (3) determine the effects of atmospheric teleconnections on longleaf pine growth, and (4) 

reconstruct fire history from fire-scar data. The native range of longleaf pine and its associated communities 

extends from southeastern Virginia south and westward to the Trinity River in eastern Texas. I collected samples 

from living and remnant longleaf pine wood in coastal South Carolina, Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida 

panhandle, and the Big Thicket National Preserve of Texas. In the climate response analysis, the Palmer 

Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) had the highest correlation with 

longleaf pine growth. The strongest relationships between longleaf pine growth and the Palmer indices occur 

between the months of July and November. Precipitation in the spring and summer was also positively related to 

growth at all sites. The relationship between temperature and growth was the weakest among all climate 

variables, but warm summer temperatures had a consistent, negative relationship with longleaf pine growth. The 

climate signal in the latewood was generally more robust than those in total ring width and earlywood width. I 

developed chronologies for total ring width at all sites and for earlywood and latewood widths in Texas and 

South Carolina. The master chronologies for each site spanned the years from 1629–2003 in Texas, 1503–2003 

in Florida, and 1455–2003 in South Carolina. I reconstructed September PHDI at all sites using a transfer 

function with tree-ring indices as the independent variable. For all reconstructions, the most widespread and 

intense year of drought since 1700 was 1925. The driest five-year period common to all reconstructions was 

1951–1955. At decadal scales, extremely wet periods were often followed immediately by extremely dry 

periods. My reconstructions showed evidence for several historic disturbances, including the Charleston 

earthquake of 1886 and the arctic outbreak of 1835. Spectral analysis showed no significant spectral signatures 

in any of the reconstructions. Atmospheric teleconnnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal 

Oscillation (AMO) significantly affected longleaf pine growth at all sites, but the strength of the teleconnections 

varied through time. ENSO in the summer and fall correlated significantly with tree growth in Texas and South 

Carolina. The PDO in the year prior to growth was generally directly related to longleaf pine growth, while PDO 

in the current year usually showed an inverse association. The NAO from August of the previous year and May 

of the current year were generally negatively related to longleaf pine growth. The AMO was generally positively 

associated with longleaf pine growth in all months of the year. The reconstruction of fire history revealed that 

fire was frequent at all sites prior to the advent of fire suppression in the 20th century. The nature of the fire 

regime varied according to site conditions, such as the size of fire compartments and soil types. Fire frequency 

and seasonality of fires were also variable over time, reflecting the combined influence of climatic conditions 

and anthropogenic ignitions. Fire-scarred samples were not particularly abundant at any of the sites, and most 

scars were embedded deep inside the tree rather than on obvious, fire-scarred surfaces. Trauma rings that are 

abundant at the root-stem interface may be useful indicators of injury from fire, but more samples will be 

required to verify this hypothesis. 

Type A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree 

University The University of Tennessee 

Place Knoxville, Tennessee 


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Notes: 

Citation: 


URL http://web.utk.edu/~grissino/downloads/Joe%20Henderson%20dissertation.pdf 

Archive http://gradworks.umi.com/32/36/3236573.html 



Henderson, J.P. 2006. Dendroclimatological analysis and fire history of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) in the Atlantic and Gulf 

coastal plain. Ph.D. dissertation. University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Available: web.utk.edu/~grissino/downloads 

/Joe%20Henderson%20dissertation.pdf 

Description of the ecoregions of the United States 

Type Web Page 


Abstract Description: This volume was originally published in 1978 to provide a general description of the ecosystem 

geography of the Nation as shown on the 1976 map "Ecoregions of the United States." It was first published as 

an unnumbered publication by the Intermountain Region, USDA Forest Service, Ogden, Utah. It was reprinted 

in 1980 by the Forest Service, Washington, DC, as Miscellaneous Publication No. 1391. An explanation of the 

basis for the regions delineated on the map was presented elsewhere (Bailey 1983). The technique of mapping 

ecoregions was subsequently expanded to include the rest of North America (Bailey and Cushwa 1981) and the 

world (Bailey 1989). In 1993, as part of the Forest Service's National Hierarchical Framework of Ecological 

Units (ECOMAP 1993), ecoregions were adopted for use in ecosystem management. They will also be used in 

the proposed National Interagency Ecoregion-Based Ecological Assessments. This volume updates the 

knowledge of the subject. The goal in preparing this edition, like its predecessor, was not to present information, 

but to strive for synthesis, i.e., the illustration of interrelationships. 

Date 2008 

Short Title Ecoregions of the United States 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/land/ecosysmgmt/index.html 

Rights US Forest Service 



Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires 


Author Nathan P. Gillett 


Author Francis W. Zwiers 


Abstract The area burned by forest fires in Canada has increased over the past four decades, at the same time as summer 

season temperatures have warmed. Here we use output from a coupled climate model to demonstrate that 

human emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol have made a detectable contribution to this warming. 

We further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by 

forest fire in Canada over recent decades. This increase in area burned is likely to have important implications 

for terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide and for forest ecosystems. 


Volume 31 

Issue 18 

Pages L18211 (4 p.) 

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DOI 10.1029/2004GL020876 

ISSN 0094-8276 

URL www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2004/2004GL020876.shtml 



Detection and attribution of climate change: A regional perspective 


Author Peter A. Stott 



Author David J. Karoly 

Author Dáithí A. Stone 

Author Xuebin Zhang 

Author Francis Zwiers 

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more 

confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is 

likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each 

continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, 

and further evidence has accumulated attributing a much wider range of climate changes to human activities. 

Such changes are broadly consistent with theoretical understanding, and climate model simulations, of how the 

planet is expected to respond. This paper reviews this evidence from a regional perspective to reflect a growing 

interest in understanding the regional effects of climate change, which can differ markedly across the globe. We 

set out the methodological basis for detection and attribution and discuss the spatial scales on which it is 

possible to make robust attribution statements. We review the evidence showing significant human-induced 

changes in regional temperatures, and for the effects of external forcings on changes in the hydrological cycle, 

the cryosphere, circulation changes, oceanic changes, and changes in extremes. We then discuss future 

challenges for the science of attribution. To better assess the pace of change, and to understand more about the 

regional changes to which societies need to adapt, we will need to refine our understanding of the effects of 

external forcing and internal variability. 


Volume 1 

Issue 2 

Pages 192–211 

Date March/April 2010 

Journal Abbr WIREs Clim. Change 

DOI 10.1002/wcc.34 

ISSN 1757-7780 

Short Title Detection and attribution of climate change 




Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. 


Author Leslie R. Holdridge 



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Volume 105 

Issue 2727 

Pages 367-368 



DOI 10.1126/science.105.2727.367 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Development and applications of spatial data resources in energy related assessment and planning 


Author Richard J. Olson 

Author F. Glenn Goff 

Author Jerry S. Olson 

Abstract Summary: Research in energy related assessment and planning at Oak Ridge National Laboratory involves 

investigating environmental themes at several levels requiring data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. In 

the Environmental Sciences Division, a spatial data base is being developed for the Eastern United States at the 

county-subcounty unit level of resolution. The data base contains information on terrain, water resources, 

climate, land use, forest resources, agriculture, wildlife resources, critical natural areas, human population and 

energy uses. A spatial hierarchy of metric, geodetic, and geopolitical scales as a framework to organizing the 

data has been defined. Spatial units within a hierarchical level serve as building blocks that can be assembled or 

aggregated to satisfy analysis needs. Building blocks also allow accessing more detailed spatial data by using 

pointers to information not stored in the data base. Uses of the data base are related to the capability to crossreference 

and integrate information in various subject sectors, utilizing spatial units and temporal periods 

commensurate with regional themes. An investigation of potential changes in vegetation patterns related to 

predicted temperature changes from increased atmospheric CO₂ is presented to illustrate an ongoing application 

of the data resources. Other themes include coal extraction in Appalachia, landscape patterns, habitat and 

population dynamics of selected biological species, and energy facility siting. 


Proceedings Title Proceedings of the Advancements in Retrieval Technology as Related to Information Systems 

Conference Name Proceedings of the Advancements in Retrieval Technology as Related to Information Systems, Arlington, VA, 

USA, 20 October 1976 

Place Oak Ridge, TN. 

Publisher Enviromental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory 

Pages 12.1-12.7 (7 p.) 

URL http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1976STIN...7723609O 



Development of coarse-scale spatial data for wildland fire and fuel management 


Author Kirsten M. Schmidt 

Author James P. Menakis 

Author Colin C. Hardy 

Author Wendel J. Hann 

Author David L. Bunnell 

Abstract We produced seven coarse-scale, 1-km² resolution, spatial data layers for the conterminous United States to 

support national-level fire planning and risk assessments. Four of these layers were developed to evaluate 

ecological conditions and risk to ecosystem components: Potential Natural Vegetation Groups, a layer of climax 

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vegetation types representing site characteristics such as soils, climate, and topography; Current Cover Type, a 

layer of current vegetation types; Historical Natural Fire Regimes, a layer of fire frequency and severity; and 

Fire Regime Current Condition Class, a layer depicting the degree of departure from historical fire regimes, 

possibly resulting in alterations of key ecosystem components. The remaining three layers were developed to 

support assessments of potential hazards and risks to public health and safety: National Fire Occurrence, 1986 

to 1996, a layer and database of Federal and non-Federal fire occurrences; Potential Fire Characteristics, a layer 

of the number of days of high or extreme fire danger calculated from 8 years of historical National Fire Danger 

Rating System (NFDRS) data; and Wildland Fire Risk to Flammable Structures, a layer of the potential risk of 

wildland fire burning flammable structures based on an integration of population density, fuel, and weather 

spatial data. This paper documents the methodology we used to develop these spatial data layers. In a 

Geographic Information System (GIS), we integrated biophysical and remote sensing data with disturbance and 

succession information by assigning characteristics to combinations of biophysical, current vegetation, and 

historical fire regime spatial datasets. Regional ecologists and fire managers reviewed and refined the data 

layers, developed succession diagrams, and assigned fire regime current condition classes. “Fire Regime Current 

Conditions” are qualitative measures describing the degree of departure from historical fire regimes, possibly 

resulting in alterations of key ecosystem components such as species composition, structural stage, stand age, 

canopy closure, and fuel loadings. For all Federal and non-Federal lands, excluding agricultural, barren, and 

urban/developed lands, 48 percent (2.4 million km²) of the land area of the conterminous United States is within 

the historical range (Condition Class 1) in terms of vegetation composition, structure, and fuel loadings; 38 

percent (1.9 million km²) is moderately altered from the historical range (Condition Class 2); and 15 percent 

(736,000 km²) is significantly altered from the historical range (Condition Class 3). Managers can use these 

spatial data to describe regional trends in current conditions and to support fire and fuel management program 

development and resource allocation. 

Report Number RMRS-GTR-87 



Institution Publications Distribution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station 


Pages 41 p. + CD 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr87.html 

Extra Keywords: current conditions; fire regimes; fuel management; fire occurrence; potential natural vegetation; 

cover type; GIS; wildland-urban interface. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Schmidt, Kirsten M.; Menakis, James P.; Hardy, Colin C.; Hann, Wendel J.; Bunnell, David L. 2002. Development of coarse-scale 

spatial data for wildland fire and fuel management. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-87. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 41 p. + CD. 

Development of the Indonesian and Malaysian fire danger rating systems 


Author William J. de Groot 

Author Robert D. Field 

Author Michael A. Brady 

Author Orbita Roswintiarti 

Author Maznorizan Mohamad 

Abstract Forest and land fires in Southeast Asia have many social, economic, and environmental impacts. Tropical 

peatland fires affect global carbon dynamics, and haze from peat fires has serious negative impacts on the 

regional economy and human health. To mitigate these fire-related problems, forest and land management 

agencies require an early warning system to assist them in implementing fire prevention and management plans 

before fire problems begin. Fire Danger Rating Systems (FDRS) were developed for Indonesia and Malaysia to 

provide early warning of the potential for serious fire and haze events. In particular, they identify time periods 

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when fires can readily start and spread to become uncontrolled fires and time periods when smoke from 

smouldering fires will cause an unacceptably high level of haze. The FDRS were developed by adapting 

components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, including the Canadian Forest Fire Weather 

Index (FWI) System and the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System, to local vegetation, 

climate, and fire regime conditions. A smoke potential indicator was developed using the Drought Code (DC) of 

the FWI System. Historical air quality analysis showed that the occurrence of severe haze events increased 

substantially when DC was above 400. An ignition potential indicator was developed using the Fine Fuel 

Moisture Code (FFMC) of the FWI System. Historical hot spot analysis, grass moisture, and grass ignition 

studies showed that fire occurrence and the ability for grass fires to start and spread dramatically increased 

when FFMC > 82. The Initial Spread Index (ISI) of the FWI System was used to develop a difficulty of control 

indicator for grassland fires, a fuel type that can exhibit high rates of spread and fire intensity. This ISI-based 

indicator was developed using the grass fuel model of the FBP System, along with a standard grass fuel load and 

curing level estimated from previous Indonesian studies. Very high fire intensity is expected in grasslands when 

ISI ≥ 6. To provide early warning, the FDRS identifies classes of increasing fire danger as the FFMC, DC, and 

ISI approach these key threshold values. The Indonesian FDRS is now operated nationally at the Indonesian 

Meteorological and Geophysical Agency. The Malaysian Meteorological Service operates the Malaysian FDRS 

and displays regional outputs for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The FDRS are being used by 

forestry, agriculture, environment, and fire and rescue agencies to develop and implement fire prevention, 

detection, and suppression plans. 

Publication Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 

Volume 12 

Issue 1 (Special Issue on Southeast Asian Fire) 

Pages 165-180 


Journal Abbr Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change 

DOI 10.1007/s11027-006-9043-8 

ISSN 1381-2386 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/948t72w572801853/ 

Extra Keywords: early warning; fire behaviour; fire danger; fire management; fire prevention; fire weather; forest and 

land fires; transboundary haze. 



Disastrous fire weather of September 1929 


Author Charles I. Dague 

Abstract The outstanding features of the fire-weather season for 1929 were its estreme dryness, its length, and the heavy 

fire losses in September, and subsequently thereto, west of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington. It was by 

far the most severe and most strenuous season within the history of organized forest-fire protection in these two 

States, and probably for as far back as we have any record or knowledge of forest fires for these sections. There 

have been seasons with heavier fire losses, but they were before the time of organized protection. The estreme 

southwestern portion of Oregon and of northwestern California sustained their heaviest forest fire losses for the 

season during the last decade in November and the first week in December. 


Volume 58 

Issue 9 

Pages 368-370 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1930)582.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281930%2958%3C368%3ADFWOS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



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Distribution of lightning- and man-caused wildfires in California 



Abstract During the 1970 decade on lands under fire jurisdiction by the California Division of Forestry (CDF) and the 

United States Forest Service (USFS) there were over 100,000 wildfires, 16.2 percent of which were lightningcaused 

and these accounted for 13.1 percent of all area burned. On USFS land, August is the peak month for 

lightning fires whereas July is the peak for man-caused fires. On average, lightning fires occur at higher 

elevations than man-caused fires and this is reflected in differences in the types of vegetation providing fuel for 

ignition. The number of lightning fires is positively correlated with distance from the coast and latitude whereas 

the number of man-caused fires is negatively correlated with these two parameters. Correlations between other 

parameters are presented and the question of "natural" burning patterns is discussed. 


Proceedings Title Proceedings of the symposium on dynamics and management of Mediterranean-type ecosystems 

Conference Name Dynamics and Management of Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems, June 22-26, 1981, San Diego, California 

Place Berkeley, California 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station 

Pages 431-437 

Series General Technical Report PSW-58 (psw_gtr058) 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr058/ 



Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world 



Abstract Disturbance regimes are changing rapidly, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems and linked 

social-ecological systems will be profound. This paper synthesizes current understanding of disturbance with an 

emphasis on fundamental contributions to contemporary landscape and ecosystem ecology, then identifies 

future research priorities. Studies of disturbance led to insights about heterogeneity, scale, and thresholds in 

space and time and catalyzed new paradigms in ecology. Because they create vegetation patterns, disturbances 

also establish spatial patterns of many ecosystem processes on the landscape. Drivers of global change will 

produce new spatial patterns, altered disturbance regimes, novel trajectories of change, and surprises. Future 

disturbances will continue to provide valuable opportunities for studying pattern–process interactions. Changing 

disturbance regimes will produce acute changes in ecosystems and ecosystem services over the short (years to 

decades) and long term (centuries and beyond). Future research should address questions related to (1) 

disturbances as catalysts of rapid ecological change, (2) interactions among disturbances, (3) relationships 

between disturbance and society, especially the intersection of land use and disturbance, and (4) feedbacks from 

disturbance to other global drivers. Ecologists should make a renewed and concerted effort to understand and 

anticipate the causes and consequences of changing disturbance regimes. 


Volume 91 

Issue 10 

Pages 2833-2849 



DOI 10.1890/10-0097.1 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: disturbance regime; ecosystem ecology; fire; global change; landscape ecology; MacArthur Address; 

Pinus contorta; scale; spatial heterogeneity; succession; Yellowstone National Park. 



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Disturbance regimes in temperate forests 

Notes: 

Citation: 


Author James R. Runkle 

Abstract A discussion of the components of a disturbance regime (average rates, distribution in space and time, severity, 

rates of recovery, and importance of multiple-gap episodes) with examples of natural regimes from cove forests 

of the southern Appalachians and forests of the Allegheny Plateau, Pennsylvania, USA. 

Book Title The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics 


Place Orlando, New York 


Date 1985 

Pages 17–33 

ISBN 0-12-554520-7 

URL http://books.google.com/books? 

id=jIj-qAflWxQC&… 



Runkle, James R. 1985. Disturbance Regimes in Temperate Forests. Chapter 2. pp.15-33 In Pickett, S.T.A. and White, P.S., Eds. :”The 

Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics”. Academic Press, Orlando, Florida. 

Disturbance, diversity, and invasion: Implications for conservation 


Author Richard J. Hobbs 

Author Laura F. Huenneke 

Abstract Disturbance is an important component of many ecosystemg and variations in disturbance regime can affect 

ecosystem and community structure and functioning. The "intermediate disturbance hypothesis" suggests that 

species diversity should be highest at moderate levels of disturbance. However, disturbance is also known to 

increase the invasibility of communities. Disturbance therefore poses an important problem for conservation 

management. Here we review the effects of disturbances such as firg grazing soil disturbanc6 and nutrient 

addition on plant species diversity and invasion, with particular emphasis on grassland vegetation. Individual 

components of the disturbance regime can have marked effects on species diversity, but it is often modifications 

of the existing regime that have the largest influence. Similarly, disturbance can enhance invasion of natural 

communities, but frequently it is the interaction between different disturbances that has the largest effect. The 

natural disturbance regime is now unlikely to persist within conservation areas, since fragmentation and human 

intervention have usually modified physical and biotic conditions. Active management decisions must now be 

made on what disturbance regime is required, and this requires decisions on what species are to be encouraged 

or discouraged. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 324-337 



DOI 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1992.06030324.x 

ISSN 1523-1739 

Short Title Disturbance, Diversity, and Invasion 

URL http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119332348/abstract 

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Does high forecast uncertainty preclude effective decision support? 


Author Peter Reichert 

Author Mark E. Borsuk 

Abstract The uncertainty in the predictions of models for the behaviour of environmental systems is usually very large. In 

many cases the widths of the predictive probability distributions for outcomes of interest are significantly larger 

than the differences between the expected values of the outcomes across different policy alternatives. This 

seems to lead to a serious problem for model-based decision support because policy actions appear to have an 

insignificant effect on variables describing their consequences, relative to the predictive uncertainty. However, 

in some cases it is evident that some of the alternatives at least lead to changes in the desired direction. A formal 

analysis of this situation is made based on the dependence structure of the variables of interest across different 

policy alternatives. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the uncertainty in the difference of model 

predictions corresponding to different policies may be significantly smaller than the uncertainty in the 

predictions themselves. The knowledge about the uncertainty in this difference may be relevant information for 

the decision maker in addition to the information usually provided. The conceptual development is 

supplemented with a presentation of convenient methods for practical implementation. These are illustrated 

with a simple, didactical model for the effect of phosphorus discharge reduction alternatives on phosphorus 

loading to a lake. 

Publication Environmental Modelling and Software 

Volume 20 

Issue 8 

Pages 991–1001 


Journal Abbr Environ. Model Softw. 

DOI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.10.005 

ISSN 1364-8152 




Does it make sense to restore wildland fire in changing climate? 



Abstract Forest restoration guided by historical reference conditions of fire regime, forest structure, and composition has 

been increasingly and successfully applied in fire-adapted forests of western North America. But because 

climate change is expected to alter vegetation distributions and foster severe disturbances, does it make sense to 

restore the ecological role of wildland fire through management burning and related activities such as tree 

thinning? I suggest that some site- and date-specific historical conditions may be less relevant, but reference 

conditions in the broad sense are still useful. Reference conditions encompass not only the recent past but also 

evolutionary history, reflecting the role of fire as a selective force over millennia. Taking a long-term functional 

view of historical reference conditions as the result of evolutionary processes can provide insights into past 

forest adaptations and migrations under various climates. As future climates change, historical reference data 

from lower, southerly, and drier sites may be useful in places that are higher, northerly, and currently wetter. 

Almost all models suggest that the future will have substantial increases in wildfire occurrence, but prior to 

recent human-caused fire exclusion, fire-adapted pine forests of western North America were among the most 

frequently burned in the world. Restoration of patterns of burning and fuels/forest structure that reasonably 

emulate historical conditions prior to fire exclusion is consistent with reducing the susceptibility of these 

ecosystems to catastrophic loss. Priorities may include fire and thinning treatments of upper elevation ecotones 

to facilitate forest migration, whereas vulnerable low-elevation forests may merit less management investment. 

Publication Restoration Ecology 

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Volume 16 

Issue 4 

Pages 526-531 


Journal Abbr Restor. Ecol. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1526-100X.2008.00489.x 

ISSN 1061-2971 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1526-100X.2008.00489.x 

Extra Keywords: climate change; Durango pine; fire; Jeffrey pine; ponderosa pine. 



Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880 


Author Paul M. Della-Marta 

Author Malcolm R. Haylock 



Abstract We analyzed a new data set of 54 high-quality homogenized daily maximum temperature series from western 

Europe (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, 

Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom) to define more accurately the change in extreme warm 

Daily Summer Maximum Temperature (DSMT). Results from the daily temperature homogeneity analysis 

suggest that many instrumental measurements in the late 19th and early 20th centuries were warm-biased. 

Correcting for these biases, over the period 1880 to 2005 the length of summer heat waves over western Europe 

has doubled and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled. The DSMT Probability Density Function (PDF) 

shows significant changes in the mean (+1.6 ± 0.4°C) and variance (+6 ± 2%). These conclusions help further 

the evidence that western Europe's climate has become more extreme than previously thought and that the 

hypothesized increase in variance of future summer temperature has indeed been a reality over the last 126 

years. 


Volume 112 

Issue 15 

Pages D15103 (11 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2007JD008510 

ISSN 0148-0227 


Extra Keywords: climate extremes; observations; temperature. 



Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century 


Author Olga Pechony 

Author Drew T. Shindell 

Abstract Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate 

change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the 

relative importance of these factors in shaping global fire history. Here we use fire and climate modeling, 

combined with land cover and population estimates, to gain a better understanding of the forces driving global 

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fire trends. Our model successfully reproduces global fire activity record over the last millennium and reveals 

distinct regimes in global fire behavior. We find that during the preindustrial period, the global fire regime was 

strongly driven by precipitation (rather than temperature), shifting to an anthropogenic-driven regime with the 

Industrial Revolution. Our future projections indicate an impending shift to a temperature-driven global fire 

regime in the 21st century, creating an unprecedentedly fire-prone environment. These results suggest a 

possibility that in the future climate will play a considerably stronger role in driving global fire trends, 

outweighing direct human influence on fire (both ignition and suppression), a reversal from the situation during 

the last two centuries. 


Volume 107 

Issue 45 

Pages 19167-19170 

Date November 9, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1003669107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: biomass burning; fire modeling; human–environment interactions; paleoclimate. 



Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the Inland Pacific Northwest 



Author Don McKenzie 

Author Richard Schellhaas 

Abstract Historical variability of fire regimes must be understood within the context of climatic and human drivers of 

disturbance occurring at multiple temporal scales. We describe the relationship between fire occurrence and 

interannual to decadal climatic variability (Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI], El Ninõ/Southern Oscillation 

[ENSO], and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]) and explain how land use changes in the 20th century 

affected these relationships. We used 1701 fire-scarred trees collected in five study sites in central and eastern 

Washington State (USA) to investigate current year, lagged, and low frequency relationships between composite 

fire histories and PDSI, PDO, and ENSO (using the Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] as a measure of ENSO 

variability) using superposed epoch analysis and cross-spectral analysis. Fires tended to occur during dry 

summers and during the positive phase of the PDO. Cross-spectral analysis indicates that percentage of trees 

scarred by fire and the PDO are spectrally coherent at 47 years, the approximate cycle of the PDO. Similarly, 

percentage scarred and ENSO are spectrally coherent at six years, the approximate cycle of ENSO. However, 

other results suggest that ENSO was only a weak driver of fire occurrence in the past three centuries. While 

drought and fire appear to be tightly linked between 1700 and 1900, the relationship between drought and fire 

occurrence was disrupted during the 20th century as a result of land use changes. We suggest that long-term fire 

planning using the PDO may be possible in the Pacific Northwest, potentially allowing decadal-scale 

management of fire regimes, prescribed fire, and vegetation dynamics. 


Volume 14 

Issue 2 

Pages 425-442 



DOI 10.1890/03-5019 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/03-5019 

Extra Keywords: climate; cross-spectral; drought; ENSO (El Ninõ/Southern Oscillation); fire history; Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation; Pacific Northwest; Pinus ponderosa; SEA (superposed epoch analysis). 


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Drought reconstructions for the continental United States 




Author David W. Stahle 

Author Malcolm K. Cleaveland 

Abstract The development of a 2° lat × 3° long grid of summer drought reconstructions for the continental United States 

estimated from a dense network of annual tree-ring chronologies is described. The drought metric used is the 

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The number of grid points is 154 and the reconstructions cover the 

common period 1700–1978. In producing this grid, an automated gridpoint regression method called “pointby-point 

regression” was developed and tested. In so doing, a near-optimal global solution was found for its 

implementation. The reconstructions have been thoroughly tested for validity using PDSI data not used in 

regression modeling. In general, most of the gridpoint estimates of drought pass the verification tests used. In 

addition, the spatial features of drought in the United States have been faithfully recorded in the reconstructions 

even though the method of reconstruction is not explicitly spatial in its design. The drought reconstructions 

show that the 1930s “Dust Bowl” drought was the most severe such event to strike the United States since 

1700. Other more local droughts are also revealed in the regional patterns of drought obtained by rotated 

principal component analysis. These reconstructions are located on a NOAA Web site at the World Data 

Center-A in Boulder, Colorado, and can be freely downloaded from there. 


Volume 12 

Issue 4 

Pages 1145–1162 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)0122.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0442 


/1520-0442%281999%29012%3C1145%3ADRFTCU%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Drought under global warming: A review 


Author Aiguo Dai 

Abstract This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity 

changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of 

model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last 

millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered 

by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Niña-like SST anomalies leading to drought in 

North America, and El-Niño-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the 

warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. 

Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s 

due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El 

Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the 

recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric 

circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century 

over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. 

Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate 

variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will 

depend on models' ability to predict tropical SSTs. 

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Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 45–65 

Date January/February 2011 


DOI 10.1002/wcc.81 

ISSN 1757-7780 




Drought variability in the Pacific Northwest from a 6,000-yr lake sediment record 


Author Daniel B. Nelson 

Author Mark B. Abbott 

Author Byron Steinman 

Author Pratigya J. Polissar 

Author Nathan D. Stansell 

Author Joseph D. Ortiz 

Author Michael F. Rosenmeier 

Author Bruce P. Finney 

Author Jon Riedel 

Abstract We present a 6,000-yr record of changing water balance in the Pacific Northwest inferred from measurements 

of carbonate δ18O and grayscale on a sediment core collected from Castor Lake, Washington. This 

subdecadally resolved drought record tracks the 1,500-yr tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index 

reconstructions of Cook et al. [Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW (2004) Science 

306:1015–1018] in the Pacific Northwest and extends our knowledge back to 6,000 yr B.P. The results 

demonstrate that low-frequency drought/pluvial cycles, with occasional long-duration, multidecadal events, are 

a persistent feature of regional climate. Furthermore, the average duration of multidecadal wet/dry cycles has 

increased since the middle Holocene, which has acted to increase the amplitude and impact of these events. 

This is especially apparent during the last 1,000 yr. We suggest these transitions were driven by changes in the 

tropical and extratropical Pacific and are related to apparent intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation 

over this interval and its related effects on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The Castor Lake record also 

corroborates the notion that the 20th century, prior to recent aridity, was a relatively wet period compared to the 

last 6,000 yr. Our findings suggest that the hydroclimate response in the Pacific Northwest to future warming 

will be intimately tied to the impact of warming on the El Niño Southern Oscillation. 


Volume 108 

Issue 10 

Pages 3870-3875 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1009194108 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: lake sediment; oxygen isotope. 



Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009 

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Author Maosheng Zhao 


Abstract Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and 

accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing 

temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade 

(2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued 

increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. 

Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased 

NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP 

would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food 

demand and proposed biofuel production. 


Volume 329 

Issue 5994 

Pages 940-943 



DOI 10.1126/science.1192666 





Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation 



Author David D. Breshears 

Abstract In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at 

unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries 

between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately 

provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from 

field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in 

northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper 

woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (



Author Edward A. Beals 

Abstract no abstract. 


Volume 44 

Issue 3 

Pages 135-138 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1916)442.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281916%2944%3C135%3ADAHW%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Notes: 

Extracts from paper, 

“Forecasts of weather favorable to the increase of forest fires,” read before the Pan-American Scientific Congress at Washington, D. 

C., Dec. 30, 1915. 

Dry forests and wildland fires of the inland Northwest USA: Contrasting the landscape ecology of the 

pre-settlement and modern eras 


Author Paul F. Hessburg 



Abstract Prior to Euro–American settlement, dry ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests (hereafter, the “dry forests”) 

of the Inland Northwest were burned by frequent low- or mixed-severity fires. These mostly surface fires 

maintained low and variable tree densities, light and patchy ground fuels, simplified forest structure, and 

favored fire-tolerant trees, such as ponderosa pine, and a low and patchy cover of associated fire-tolerant shrubs 

and herbs. Low- and mixed-severity fires provided other important feedbacks and effects to ponderosa 

pine-dominated stands and landscapes. For example, in stands, frequent surface fires favored an ongoing yet 

piecemeal regeneration of fire-tolerant trees by periodically exposing patches of mineral soil. They maintained 

fire-tolerant forest structures by elevating tree crown bases and scorching or consuming many seedlings, 

saplings, and pole-sized trees. They cycled nutrients from branches and foliage to the soil, where they could be 

used by other plants, and promoted the growth and development of low and patchy understory shrub and herb 

vegetation. Finally, surface fires reduced the long-term threat of running crown fires by reducing the fuel bed 

and metering out individual tree and group torching, and they reduced competition for site resources among 

surviving trees, shrubs, and herbs. In landscapes, the patterns of dry forest structure and composition that 

resulted from frequent fires reinforced the occurrence of low- or mixed-severity fires, because frequent burning 

spatially isolated conditions that supported high-severity fires. These spatial patterns reduced the likelihood of 

severe fire behavior and effects at each episode of fire. Rarely, dry forest landscapes were affected by more 

severe climate-driven events. Extant dry forests no longer appear or function as they once did. Large landscapes 

are homogeneous in their composition and structure, and the regional landscape is set up for severe, large fire 

and insect disturbance events. Among ecologists, there is also a high degree of concern about how future dry 

forests will develop, if fires continue to be large and severe. In this paper, we describe the key landscape pattern 

and process changes wrought by the sum of the settlement and management influences to date, and we point to 

an uncertain future for ecosystem management. Widespread selection cutting of the largest and oldest 

ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir in the 20th century has reduced much of the economic opportunity that might 

have been associated with restoration, and long-term investment will likely be needed, if large-scale restoration 

activities are attempted. An uncertain future for ecosystem management is based on the lack of current and 

improbable future social consensus concerning desired outcomes for public forestlands, the need for significant 

financial investment in ecosystem restoration, a lack of integrated planning and decision tools, and mismatches 

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between the existing planning process, Congressional appropriations, and complex management and restoration 

problems. 


Volume 211 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 117-139 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.02.016 

ISSN 0378-1127 

Short Title Dry forests and wildland fires of the inland Northwest USA 


Extra Keywords: Pinus ponderosa; Abies grandis; Abies concolor; Pseudostuga menziesii; landscape ecology; mixed 

conifer forests; fire ecology; fire history; European settlement; historical range of variability. 



Dynamic plant ecology: The spectrum of vegetational change in space and time 


Author Hazel R. Delcourt 

Author Paul A. Delcourt 


Abstract Different environmental forcing functions influence vegetational patterns and processes over a wide range of 

spatial and temporal scales. On the micro-scale (1 year to 5 x 10³ years, 1 m² to 10⁶m²) natural and 

anthropogenic disturbances affect establishment and succession of species populations. At the macro-scale (5 x 

10³ years to 10⁶ years and 10⁶m² to 10¹²m²) climatic changes influence regional vegetational processes that 

include migrations of species as well as displacement of ecosystems. Mega-scale phenomena such as plate 

tectonics, evolution of the biota and development of global patterns of vegetation occur on the time scale of 

>10⁶ years and over areas >10¹² m². Our knowledge of past vegetational changes resulting from Quaternary 

climatic change can be used to predict biotic responses to future climatic changes such as global warming that 

may be induced by increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. The time scale for future 

climatic warming may be much more rapid than that characterizing the early- to mid-Holocene, increasing the 

probability of rapid turnover in species composition, changes in local and regional dominance of important taxa, 

displacement of species ranges and local extinction of species. Integration of ecological and paleoecological 

perspectives on vegetational dynamics is fundamental to understanding and managing the biosphere. 


Volume 1 

Issue 3 

Pages 153-175 

Date 1982 


DOI 10.1016/0277-3791(82)90008-7 

ISSN 0277-3791 

Short Title Dynamic plant ecology 




Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime 


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Author Richard P. Guyette 

Author Rose-Marie Muzika 

Author Daniel C. Dey 

Abstract Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural 

development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions 

with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. 

Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri Ozarks, coupled with human population data, offer a 

quantitative means of examining historic (1680-1990) changes in the anthropogenic fire regime. A temporal 

analysis of fire scar dates over the last 3 centuries indicates that the percent of sites burned and fire intervals of 

anthropogenic fires are conditioned by the following four limiting factors: (a) anthropogenic ignition, (b) surface 

fuel production, (c) fuel fragmentation, and (d) cultural behavior. During an ignition-dependent stage (fewer 

than 0.64 humans/km²), the percent of sites burned is logarithmically related to human population (r² = 0.67). 

During a fuel-limited stage, where population density exceeds a threshold of 0.64 humans/km², the percent of 

sites burned is independent of population increases and is limited by fuel production. During a 

fuel-fragmentation stage, regional trade allows population densities to increase above 3.4 humans/km², and the 

percent of sites burned becomes inversely related to population (r² = 0.18) as decreases in fuel continuity limit 

the propagation of surface fires. During a culture-dependent stage, increases in the value of timber over forage 

greatly reduce the mean fire interval and the percent of sites burned. Examples of the dynamics of these four 

stages are presented from the Current River watershed of the Missouri Ozarks. 


Volume 5 

Issue 5 

Pages 472–486 





Extra Keywords: human population density; Ozarks; Missouri; disturbance; dendrochronology; fire regimes. 



Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change 


Author Camille Parmesan 

Abstract Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied 

marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted 

from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between 

climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted 

species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first 

groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and 

amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted 

when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions 

have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at 

expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little 

evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level. 

Publication Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 

Volume 37 

Issue 1 

Pages 637-669 


Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 

ISSN 1543-592X 

URL http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 

167 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Extra Keywords: aquatic; global warming; phenology; range shift; terrestrial; trophic asynchrony. 



Ecological and sampling constraints on defining landscape fire severity 


Author Carl H. Key 

Abstract Ecological definition and detection of fire severity are influenced by factors of spatial resolution and timing. 

Resolution determines the aggregation of effects within a sampling unit or pixel (alpha variation), hence limiting 

the discernible ecological responses, and controlling the spatial patchiness of responses distributed throughout a 

burn (beta variation). As resolution decreases, alpha variation increases, extracting beta variation and 

complexity from the spatial model of the whole burn. Seasonal timing impacts the quality of radiometric data in 

terms of transmittance, sun angle, and potential contrast between responses within burns. Detection sensitivity 

can degrade toward the end of many fire seasons when low sun angles, vegetation senescence, incomplete 

burning, hazy conditions, or snow are common. Thus, a need exists to supersede many rapid response 

applications when remote sensing conditions improve. Lag timing, or time since fire, notably shapes the 

ecological character of severity through first-order effects that only emerge with time after fire, including 

delayed survivorship and mortality. Survivorship diminishes the detected magnitude of severity, as burned 

vegetation remains viable and resprouts, though at first it may appear completely charred or consumed above 

ground. Conversely, delayed mortality increases the severity estimate when apparently healthy vegetation is in 

fact damaged by heat to the extent that it dies over time. Both responses depend on fire behavior and various 

species-specific adaptations to fire that are unique to the pre-fire composition of each burned area. Both 

responses can lead initially to either over- or underestimating severity. Based on such implications, three 

sampling intervals for short-term burn severity are identified; rapid, initial, and extended assessment, sampled 

within about two weeks, two months, and depending on the ecotype, from three months to one year after fire, 

respectively. Spatial and temporal conditions of sampling strategies constrain data quality and ecological 

information obtained about fire severity. Though commonly overlooked, such considerations determine the 

objectives and hypotheses that are appropriate for each application, and are especially important when building 

comparative studies or long-term reference databases on fire severity. 

Publication Fire Ecology 

Volume 2 

Issue 2 

Pages 34-59 


Journal Abbr Fire Ecol. 

DOI 10.4996/fireecology.0202034 

ISSN 1933-9747 

URL http://fireecology.net/index.php? 

option=com_journal&… 

Extra Keywords: fire; burn; severity; fire effects; differenced Normalized Burn Ratio; dNBR; change detection; 

Landsat TM/ETM+. 



Ecological effects of prescribed fire season: A literature review and synthesis for managers 


Author Eric E. Knapp 

Author Becky L. Estes 


Abstract Prescribed burning may be conducted at times of the year when fires were infrequent historically, leading to 

concerns about potential adverse effects on vegetation and wildlife. Historical and prescribed fire regimes for 

different regions in the continental United States were compared and literature on season of prescribed burning 

synthesized. In regions and vegetation types where considerable differences in fuel consumption exist among 

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burning seasons, the effects of prescribed fire season appears, for many ecological variables, to be driven more 

by fire-intensity differences among seasons than by phenology or growth stage of organisms at the time of fire. 

Where fuel consumption differs little among burning seasons, the effect of phenology or growth stage of 

organisms is often more apparent, presumably because it is not overwhelmed by fire-intensity differences. Most 

species in ecosystems that evolved with fire appear to be resilient to one or few out-of-season prescribed 

burn(s). However, a variable fire regime including prescribed burns at different times of the year may alleviate 

the potential for undesired changes and maximize biodiversity. 

Report Number PSW-GTR-224 


Place Albany, CA 

Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station 


Pages 80 p. 

Short Title Ecological effects of prescribed fire season 


Extra Keywords: fire effects; fire intensity; fire season; fuel consumption; historical fire regime; phenology; 

prescribed fire; pyrodiversity. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Knapp, Eric E.; Estes, Becky L.; Skinner, Carl N. 2009. Ecological effects of prescribed fire season: a literature review and synthesis 

for managers. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-224. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest 

Research Station. 80 p. 

Ecological foundations for fire management in North American forest and shrubland ecosystems 



Author Greg H. Aplet 

Author Norman L. Christensen 

Author Susan G. Conard 


Author Philip A. Omi 



Abstract This review uses a scientific synthesis to provide an ecological foundation for management of the diverse 

ecosystems and fire regimes of North America. This foundation is based on the principles that inform 

management of fire-affected ecosystems. Although a large amount of scientific data on fire exists, most of those 

data have been collected at fine spatial and short temporal scales, whereas most of the potential issues and 

applications of those data are at broad and long-term scales. Basing decisions and actions on these data often 

requires extrapolation to different scales and different conditions, such that error can be introduced in the 

process. 

Report Number PNW-GTR-779 



Institution U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station 


Pages 92 p. 


169 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Notes: 

Citation: 

Extra Keywords: fire ecology; fire hazard; fire regime; fire risk; fire management; fuels; fuel manipulation; 

prescription burning; restoration. 



Keeley, J.E.; Aplet, G.H.; Christensen, N.L.; Conard, S.G.; Johnson, E.A.; Omi, P.N.; Peterson, D.L.; Swetnam, T.W. 2009. 

Ecological foundations for fire management in North American forest and shrubland ecosystems. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-779. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 92 p. 

Ecological importance of intermediate windstorms rivals large, infrequent disturbances in the northern 

Great Lakes 


Author Kirk M. Stueve 

Author Charles H. Perry 

Author Mark D. Nelson 

Author Sean P. Healey 

Author Andrew D. Hill 

Author Gretchen G. Moisen 


Author Dale D. Gormanson 

Author Chengquan Huang 

Abstract Exogenous disturbances are critical agents of change in temperate forests capable of damaging trees and 

influencing forest structure, composition, demography, and ecosystem processes. Forest disturbances of 

intermediate magnitude and intensity receive relatively sparse attention, particularly at landscape scales, despite 

influencing most forests at least once per generation. Contextualizing the spatial extent and heterogeneity of 

such damage is of paramount importance to increasing our understanding of forested ecosystems. We 

investigated patterns of intermediate wind disturbance across a forested landscape in the northern Great Lakes, 

USA. A vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm was utilized for processing near-biennial Landsat data 

stacks (1984–2009) spanning forests sustaining damage from four recent windstorms. VCT predominantly maps 

stand-clearing disturbance and regrowth patterns, which were used to identify forest boundaries, young stands, 

and disturbance patterns across space and time. To map wind damage severity, we compared satellite-derived 

normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values calculated from pre- and post-storm Landsat imagery. A 

geographic information system (GIS) was used to derive wind damage predictor variables from VCT, digital 

terrain, soils/landform, land cover, and storm tracking data. Hierarchical and random forests regressions were 

applied to rank the relative importance of predictor variables in influencing wind damage. A conservative 

estimate of aggregate damage from the intermediate windstorms (extrapolated to 150,000 ha, 25,500 severe) 

rivaled individual large, infrequent disturbances in the region. Damage patterns were relatively congruent among 

storms and became more spatially heterogeneous with increasing disturbance intensity. Proximity to forestnonforest 

edge, stand age, and soils/landform were consistently important damage predictors. The spatial extent 

and distribution of the first two damage predictors are extremely sensitive to anthropogenic modifications of 

forested landscapes, the most important disturbance agent in the northern Great Lakes. This provides 

circumstantial evidence suggesting anthropogenic activities are augmenting and/or diminishing the ecological 

effects of the natural wind disturbance regime. Natural disturbances of intermediate size and intensity are 

significant agents of change in this region, and likely in other regions, deserving more attention from ecologists 

and biogeographers. 

Publication Ecosphere 

Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages Article 2 (21 p.) 

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Journal Abbr Ecosphere 

DOI 10.1890/ES10-00062.1 

ISSN 2150-8925 


Extra Keywords: blowdown; hierarchical partitioning; landscape ecology; mixed northern hardwoods; northern 

Wisconsin; random forests; remote sensing; Upper Peninsula of Michigan; vegetation change tracker. 



Ecological land classification: A survey approach 


Author J. Stan Rowe 

Author John W. Sheard 

Abstract A landscape approach to ecological land mapping, as illustrated in this article, proceeds by pattern recognition 

based on ecological theory. The unit areas delineated are hypotheses that arise from a knowledge of what is 

ecologically important in the land. Units formed by the mapper are likely to be inefficient or irrelevant for 

ecological purposes unless he possesses a sound rationale as to the interactions and controlling influences of the 

structural components of ecosystems. Here is the central problem with what have been called "objective" 

multivariate approaches to mapping based on grid units and the sometimes arbitrary attributes thereof; they tend 

to conceal the importance of ecological theory and the necessity for theory-based supervision of pattern 

recognition. Multivariate techniques are best used iteratively to verify and refine map units initially recognized 

and delineated by theoretical considerations. These ideas are illustrated by an example of a reconnaissance 

survey in the Northwest Territories of Canada. 


Volume 5 

Issue 5 

Pages 451-464 



DOI 10.1007/BF01866822 

ISSN 0364-152X 

Short Title Ecological land classification 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/u3r7412350310400/ 

Extra Keywords: ecological land classification; landscape ecosystems; parametric terrain mapping; boreal forest; 

Northwest Territories (Canada); discriminant analysis. 



Ecological systems of the United States: A working classification of US terrestrial systems 


Author Patrick Comer 

Author Don Faber-Langendoen 

Author Rob Evans 

Author Sue Gawler 

Author Carmen Josse 

Author Gwen Kittel 

Author Shannon Menard 

Author Milo Pyne 

Author Marion Reid 

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Notes: 

Author Keith Schulz 

Author Kristin Snow 

Author Judy Teague 

Abstract Conservation of the Earth's diversity of life requires a sound understanding of the distribution and condition of 

the components of that diversity. Efforts to understand our natural world are directed at a variety of biological 

and ecological scales—from genes and species, to natural communities, local ecosystems, and landscapes. 

While scientists have made considerable progress classifying fine-grained ecological communities on the one 

hand, and coarse-grained ecoregions on the other, land managers have identified a critical need for practical, 

mid-scale ecological units to inform conservation and resource management decisions. This report introduces 

and outlines the conceptual basis for such a mid-scale classification unit-—ecological systems. 

Place Arlington, Virginia 

Institution NatureServe 


Pages 83 p. 

Short Title Ecological systems of the United States 

URL http://www.natureserve.org/publications/usEcologicalsystems.jsp 

Extra Ecological Data: http://www.natureserve.org/getData/ecologyData.jsp 



Citation: 

Comer, P., D. Faber-Langendoen, R. Evans, S. Gawler, C. Josse, G. Kittel, S. Menard, M. Pyne, M. Reid, K. Schulz, K. Snow, and J. 

Teague. 2003. Ecological Systems of the United States: A Working Classification of U.S. Terrestrial Systems. NatureServe, Arlington, 

Virginia. 

Ecological units of the Highlands (Chapter 1) 


Author Tom Foti 

Author George Bukenhofer 


Book Title Ozark-Ouachita Highlands Assessment: Terrestrial Vegetation and Wildlife 

Series General Technical Report SRS 

Series Number GTR-SRS-035 

Volume 5 

# of Volumes 5 

Place Asheville, N.S. 

Publisher U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station 


Pages 1-6 

Short Title Ozark-Ouachita Highlands Assessment 

URL http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/2039 




Notes: 

Source: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1999. Ozark-Ouachita Highlands Assessment: terrestrial vegetation and wildlife. 

Report 5 of 5. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-35. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 

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201 p. 

Ecoregion-based design for sustainability 

Notes: 

Type Book 


Abstract ABOUT THIS BOOK This richly illustrated volume completes Robert G. Bailey's celebrated study of 

ecoregions, begun in the landmark Ecosystem Geography (1996) and further articulated in Ecoregions (1998). 

In this third installment, the author expands his system for defining large-scale ecological zones to encompass 

principles of land management, regional planning, and design. In an engaging, nontechnical discussion, he shows 

how larger patterns and processes that characterize a region--its climate, topography, soils, vegetation, fauna, 

and human culture--provide essential keys to the sustainability of ecosystems. Ecoregion-Based Design for 

Sustainability will be welcomed by land and resource managers, landscape architects and urban planners, 

ecologists, students, and anyone interested in ecology-based design. "Bob Bailey [is] the man behind the 

ecosystem mapping of the world." -Lingua Franca Reviews of Ecoregions: "The book provides easy access to 

the geographic distribution, characteristics, and processes operating behind every major ecosystem in the 

world." -Geoscience Canada "Ecoregions offers an invaluable source of description, interpretation and analysis 

of global patterns of ecosystem distribution and successfully provides the reader with a means of making sense 

of these patterns." -Geography Robert G. Bailey is a geographer with the United States Forest Service in Fort 

Collins, Colorado. Formerly the leader of the agency's Ecosystem Management Analysis Center, he is currently 

in charge of ecoregion studies at the Inventory and Monitoring Institute. 

Edition 1st edition, illustrated 


Publisher Springer-Verlag 

Date 2002 


ISBN 0387954295, 9780387954295 

URL http://www.springer.com/environment/environmental+management/book/978-0-387-95430-1 



Table of contents: 

Ch.1 Introduction 

Ch.2 Nature's Geometry 

Ch.3 Regional Scale Ecosystem Units, Ecoregions 

Ch.4 An Ecoregional Approach to Sustaining Ecosystems 

Ch.5 Significance to Ecosystem Management 

Ch.6 How Land Management Agencies, Conservation Organizations, and Others Use Ecoregion Maps 

Ch.7 Summary and Conclusions 

Appendix A Ecological Climate Zones 

Appendix B Climate Diagrams 

Appendix C Resource Guide 

Appendix D Common and Scientific Names 

Appendix E Conversion Factors 

Ecoregions of the United States - Ecoregions - RMRS - US Forest Service 

Type Web Page 


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Abstract Description: This data set shows ecoregions, which are ecosystems of regional extent, in the United States, 

Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Four levels of detail are included to show a hierarchy of ecosystems. 

The largest ecosystems are domains, which are groups of related climates and which are differentiated based on 

precipitation and temperature. Divisions represent the climates within domains and are differentiated based on 

precipitation levels and patterns as well as temperature. Divisions are subdivided into provinces, which are 

differentiated based on vegetation or other natural land covers. The finest level of detail is described by 

subregions, called sections, which are subdivisions of provinces based on terrain features. Also identified are 

mountainous areas that exhibit different ecological zones based on elevation. 

Website Title Ecoregions of the United States 

Date 2009 

Short Title Ecoregions 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ecoregions/products/map-ecoregions-united-states/ 

Rights Rocky Mountain Research Station 



Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate 



Abstract Models of climate change effects should incorporate land-use changes and episodic disturbances such as fires 

and insect epidemics. 


Volume 321 

Issue 5889 

Pages 652–653 



DOI 10.1126/science.1159607 

ISSN 0036-8075 

URL http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/321/5889/652 



Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the Climate Change Response 

Framework Project in northern Wisconsin 


Author Chris Swanston 

Author Maria Janowiak 

Author Louis Iverson 

Author Linda Parker 

Author David Mladenoff 

Author Leslie Brandt 

Author Patricia Butler 

Author Matt St. Pierre 

Author Anantha Prasad 

Author Stephen Matthews 

Author Matthew Peters 

Author Dale Higgins 

Author Avery Dorland 

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Abstract The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of 

climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across 

northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios with a focus on the Chequamegon-Nicolet 

National Forest. We describe the contemporary landscape and major existing climate trends using state 

climatological data, as well as potential future climate trends for this region using downscaled global data from 

general circulation models. We identify potential vulnerabilities by incorporating these future climate 

projections into species distribution and ecosystem process models and assessing potential changes to northern 

Wisconsin forests. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem 

drivers and increase stressors, including more frequent disturbances and increased amount or severity of pests 

and diseases. Forest ecosystems will continue to adapt to changing conditions. Even under conservative climate 

change scenarios, suitable habitat for many tree species is expected to move northward. Many species, including 

balsam fi r, white spruce, paper birch, and quaking aspen, are projected to decline as their suitable habitat 

decreases in quality and extent. Certain species, communities, and ecosystems may not be particularly resilient 

to the increases in stress or changes in habitat, and they may be subject to severe declines in abundance or may 

be lost entirely from the landscape. These include fragmented and static ecosystems, as well as ecosystems 

containing rare species or species already in decline. Identifying vulnerable species and forests can help 

landowners, managers, regulators, and policymakers establish priorities for management and monitoring. 

Report Number GTR-NRS-82 


Place Newtown Square, PA 

Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station 


Pages 142 p. 

Short Title Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis 



Extra Keywords: climate change; forests; vulnerability; Wisconsin; tree species distributions; Climate Change Atlas; 

LANDIS-II. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Swanston, Chris; Janowiak, Maria; Iverson, Louis; Parker, Linda; Mladenoff, David; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; St. Pierre, Matt; 

Prasad, Anantha; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew; Higgins, Dale; Dorland, Avery. 2011. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment 

and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-82. 

Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 142 p. 

Ecosystems and human well-being: Our human planet (Summary for decision-makers) 

Type Book 

Author Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 


Series Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Series 

Volume 5 




Publisher Island Press 



ISBN 9781559633864 

Short Title Ecosystems and human well-being 

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URL http://islandpress.org/bookstore/details21e3.html? 

prod_id=458 



Notes: 

Table Of Contents: 

Foreword 

Reader’s Guide 

Chapter 1. MA Conceptual Framework 

Chapter 2. Current State and Trends: Ecosystems and Their Services 

around the Year 2000 

Chapter 3. Scenarios: Comparing Alternate Futures of Ecosystem Services 

and Human Well-being 

Chapter 4. Policy Responses: Response Options and Strategies 

Chapter 5. Multiscale Assessments: Integrated Assessments at Multiple 

Scales 

Glossary 

Index 

Effect of climate change on fire regimes in northwestern Minnesota 



Abstract Of all the impacts of projected climate change on forest ecosystems, perhaps the most difficult to forecast is the 

potential for altered fire frequency and intensity. Fire regimes in forests are poorly understood for lack of 

long-term evidence. Here I used petrographic thin sections to determine the annual production of charcoal 

within a lake catchment in northwestern Minnesota over the past 750 years providing the long and 

high-resolution record required to elucidate fire regimes. Maximum abundance and frequency occurred in the 

warm, dry fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Fire importance decreased dramatically with the onset or 

intensification of the 'little ice age' about AD 1600. Fire cycles with harmonics corresponding to multiples of the 

22-year drought cycles of the region and increased fire frequency at times when early successional stands were 

breaking up, suggest a synergistic influence of climate and fuel accumulation. The anomalously warm, dry 

twentieth-century climate would have produced substantially different fire regimes from the previous century in 

the absence of fire suppression. 


Volume 334 

Issue 6179 

Pages 233-235 



DOI 10.1038/334233a0 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/334233a0 



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Effects of environment and land-use history on upland forests of the Cary Arboretum, Hudson Valley, 

New York 


Author Jeff S. Glitzenstein 

Author Charles D. Canham 

Author Mark J. McDonnell 

Author Donna R. Streng 

Abstract Relationships of vegetation to environment and land-use history were investigated in fbrests of the Mary Flagler 

Cary Arboretum in the Hudson Valley of New York. Vegetation data were obtained from 76 1/4 ha circular plots 

randomly located within the forest. Environmental data collected at each plot included slope, aspect, canopy 

openness, soil texture and nutrients, topographic position, and presence of exposed rock; gravimetric soil 

moisture was determined weekly during 1985 for a subsample of 25 stands. Land-use history information came 

from historical records (land deeds and U.S. and N.Y.S. census records), stone-fence locations, landscape 

patterns in stand ages, an old aerial photograph, and soils data. Vegetation analyses identified three major 

community types. One group of stands, dominated by chestnut oak (Quercus prinus L.) and northern red oak 

(Quercus rubra L.), occurred on steep, rocky, upper slope sites never cleared for agriculture. Distinct vertical 

stratification of dominant canopy species in these stands is consistent with a probable history of intensive 

selective cutting early in this century. Both of the other major community types occurred primarily on 

abandoned agricultural land. Stands dominated by white oak (Quercus alba L.), black oak (Quercus velutina 

Lam.) and pignut hickory (Carya glabra (Mill.) Sweet) tended to occur at lower elevations on rocky, nutrient 

poor sites probably derived from abandoned pastures. The significantly more open canopy in these stands, less 

distinct vertical stratification of canopy trees, and a diverse herbaceous understory frequently including grasses 

and sedges, also suggests very gradual invasion of these forests onto old pasture sites. The third major 

vegetation type, dominated by red maple (Acer rubrum L.) and white pine (Pinus strobus L.), tended to occur 

on finer textured, less rocky old field sites possibly abandoned from cultivation. Comparison of current 

vegetation with witness tree data from early land survey records suggests that the white oak-black oakhickory 

type was prevalent on lower slope sites prior to forest cleating, but has declined in importance relative to the red 

maple type during the past 100 years of abandonment of land from agriculture. 

Publication Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club 

Volume 117 

Issue 2 

Pages 106–122 

Date April - June 1990 

Journal Abbr B. Torrey Bot. Club 

DOI 10.2307/2997050 

ISSN 0040-9618 


Extra Keywords: environment; forest vegetation; land-use history; Hudson Valley; New York. 



Effects of fire on landscape heterogeneity in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming 



Author William W. Hargrove 

Author Robert H. Gardner 


Abstract A map of burn severity resulting from the 1988 fires that occurred in Yellowstone National Park (YNP) was 

derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and used to assess the isolation of burned areas, the 

heterogeneity that resulted from fires burning under moderate and severe burning conditions, and the 

relationship between heterogeneity and fire size. The majority of severely burned areas were within close 

proximity (50 to 200 m) to unburned or lightly burned areas, suggesting that few burned sites are very far from 

potential sources of propagules for plant reestablishment. Fires that occurred under moderate burning conditions 

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early during the 1988 fire season resulted in a lower proportion of crown fire than fires that occurred under 

severe burning conditions later in the season. Increased dominance and contagion of burn severity classes and a 

decrease in the edge: area ratio for later fires indicated a slightly more aggregated burn pattern compared to 

early fires. The proportion of burned area in different burn severity classes varied as a function of daily fire size. 

When daily area burned was relatively low, the proportion of burned area in each burn severity class varied 

widely. When daily burned area exceeded 1250 ha, the burned area contained about 50 % crown fire, 30 % 

severe surface burn, and 20 % light surface burn. Understanding the effect of fire on landscape heterogeneity is 

important because the kinds, amounts, and spatial distribution of burned and unburned areas may influence the 

reestablishment of plant species on burned sites. 

Publication Journal of Vegetation Science 

Volume 5 

Issue 5 

Pages 731-742 


Journal Abbr J. Veg. Sci. 

DOI 10.2307/3235886 

ISSN 1100-9233 


Extra Keywords: GIS; landscape ecology; Landsat Thematic Mapper; remote sensing; scale; spatial heterogeneity. 



Effects of fire regime and habitat on tree dynamics in north Florida longleaf pine savannas 



Author William J. Platt 


Abstract Frequent, low intensity fire was an important component of the natural disturbance regime of presettlement 

savannas and woodlands in the southeastern USA dominated by longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), and prescribed 

burning is now a critical part of the management of these endangered habitats. Fire season, fire frequency, and 

fire intensity are three potentially important, though still little understood, components of both natural and 

managed fire regimes. In this long—term (8—yr) study, we experimentally (through the use of prescribed 

burning) tested for effects of fire season (eight different times throughout the year) and fire frequency (annual 

vs. biennial burning), on population dynamics (recruitment, growth, mortality, change in density, and change in 

basal area [the total basal area of all stems in a plot]) and species composition of trees in two quite different 

types of longleaf—pine—dominated habitats (north Florida sandhills and flatwoods). Limited fire temperature 

and intensity data were also collected during one year to examine the relationship between fire behavior 

(temperature and intensity) and tree mortality. Contrary to prior hypotheses, our results showed few systematic 

or predictable effects of season or frequency of burning on dynamics of longleaf pine. Instead, variability in the 

population dynamics of this species appeared to be related largely to variation in fire behavior, regardless of the 

season of burning. Consistent with prior hypotheses, we found that deciduous oak species (Quercus laevis, Q. 

margaretta, and Q. incana) were least vulnerable to dormant—season burning and most vulnerable to burning 

early in the growing season. This was shown particularly by seasonal trends in the effect of burning on oak 

mortality (both topkill and complete kill) and, to a lesser extent, on oak recruitment. Oak densities and basal 

areas also declined in the spring—burned plots, resulting in a shift away from oaks and towards increased 

dominance by longleaf pine. Detrimental effects of spring burning on oaks were partly explained by fire 

behavior, but there appeared also to be an important residual effect of burning season, particularly on complete 

kill. Though longleaf pine population dynamics did not differ markedly as a result of burning season and 

frequency, we did find important differences in pine dynamics between the two habitats (i.e., sandhills and 

flatwoods). In general, populations of longleaf pines in the sandhills appeared to be density regulated, while 

flatwoods pine populations were declining regardless of the level of intraspecific competition. This suggests that 

long—term persistence of longleaf pine, and perhaps other fire—adapted species in frequently burned longleaf 

—pine—dominated communities, may be determined by complex interactions between habitat factors and fire 

regimes. 


Volume 65 

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Issue 4 

Pages 441-476 



DOI 10.2307/2963498 

ISSN 0012-9615 


Extra Keywords: burning frequency; burning season; competition; fire regimes; fiatwoods; habitat; North Florida; 

Pinus palustris; Quercus incana; Quercus laevis; sandhills; species change. 



Effects of fire regime on the serotiny level of jack pine 




Author Jean-Pierre Simon 

Abstract Summary 1. Serotiny, the capacity to retain seed in the plant canopy, has evolved in many species under the 

selective pressure of fires. The effect of disturbance type (lethal or nonlethal fire), time-since-fire and different 

fire regimes on the serotiny of jack pine (Pinus banksiana), was evaluated in populations from two adjacent 

landscapes in the southern part of the Canadian boreal forest. The island landscape (Lake Duparquet) has a 

complex fire regime of small fires of variable intensity, whereas the adjacent mainland has a fire regime 

characterized by large intense fires. 2. Twenty-four jack pine populations (11 island and 13 mainland) on xeric 

sites were sampled for the degree of serotiny of trees. Fire history and age structure were reconstructed for each 

population using the fire scar method. For each tree, recruitment was categorized as after a lethal fire, after a 

nonlethal fire or in the absence of fire. 3. Likelihood chi-square tests were used to investigate the variation in 

serotiny at individual, population and landscape levels. 4. At the individual level, the results support our 

prediction that the occurrence of lethal fires favours trees with high serotiny while low serotiny trees are 

favoured by other types of disturbances. 5. At the population level, the frequency of low serotiny trees increases 

with time since stand initiation, as a result of higher establishment opportunities after disturbances other than 

lethal fires. The proportion of low serotiny trees also increases with the occurrence of nonlethal fires. 6. 

Significant differences were found between the two landscapes. On the mainland, serotinous trees were more 

abundant, whereas on the islands where nonlethal fires were recorded, low serotiny trees were more frequent. 

These results support the hypothesis that fire imposes differential selective pressures on serotiny in jack pine. 


Volume 84 

Issue 4 

Pages 539-548 



ISSN 0022-0477 


Extra Keywords: cone polymorphism; disturbance regime; fire intensity; fire interval; Pinus banksiana Lamb. 



Effects of fire, topography and year-to-year climatic variation on species composition in tallgrass prairie 


Author David J. Gibson 

Author Lloyd C. Hulbert 

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Abstract Native unploughed tallgrass prairie from Konza Prairie, Kansas, USA is described with respect to plant species 

compositional changes over a five year period in response to fire and topography. The principal gradient of 

variation in the vegetation is related to time since burning. Species show an individualistic response in terms of 

relative abundance to this gradient. Both the percentage of and cover of C₄ species and all grasses decrease as 

the prairie remains unburnt. Forb and woody plant species numbers and abundance increase along this gradient. 

A secondary gradient of variation reflects topography (i.e. upland versus lowland soils). Upland soils support a 

higher species richness and diversity. Upland and lowland plant assemblages are distinct except on annually 

burnt prairie. The interaction between burning regime, topography and year-to-year climatic variation affects 

the relative abundance of the plant species differentially. The most dominant species overall, Andropogon 

gerardii, was affected only by year-to-year variation (i.e. climate). Its position at the top of the species 

abundance hierarchy was unaffected by burning regime or soil type. The other dominant species showed a suite 

of varying responses to these factors. 


Volume 72 

Issue 3 

Pages 175-185 



ISSN 0042-3106 


Extra Keywords: American prairie; Andropogon gerardii; diversity; grassland; multivariate analysis; regression 

analysis. 



Effects of invasive alien plants on fire regimes 


Author Matthew L. Brooks 

Author Carla M. D’antonio 

Author David M. Richardson 

Author James B. Grace 


Author Joseph M. Ditomaso 

Author Richard J. Hobbs 

Author Mike Pellant 

Author David Pyke 

Abstract Plant invasions are widely recognized as significant threats to biodiversity conservation worldwide. One way 

invasions can affect native ecosystems is by changing fuel properties, which can in turn affect fire behavior and, 

ultimately, alter fire regime characteristics such as frequency, intensity, extent, type, and seasonality of fire. If 

the regime changes subsequently promote the dominance of the invaders, then an invasive plant–fire regime 

cycle can be established. As more ecosystem components and interactions are altered, restoration of preinvasion 

conditions becomes more difficult. Restoration may require managing fuel conditions, fire regimes, native plant 

communities, and other ecosystem properties in addition to the invaders that caused the changes in the first 

place.We present a multiphase model describing the interrelationships between plant invaders and fire regimes, 

provide a system for evaluating the relative effects of invaders and prioritizing them for control, and recommend 

ways to restore preinvasion fire regime properties. 


Volume 54 

Issue 7 

Pages 677-688 



DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0677:EOIAPO]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0006-3568 

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URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1641/0006-3568%282004%29054%5B0677%3AEOIAPO%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire frequency; fire intensity; fuel; nonnative plants. 



Effects of long-term water balances on fire regime, north-western Minnesota 



Abstract Summary: (1) Water balances, modelled from 150 years of temperature and precipitation data, were used 

together with long-term fire-history data to assess the effect of climate variability on fire occurrence determined 

in a separate study. (2) The water balance shifted from consistently positive effective precipitation (precipitation 

minus potential evapotranspiration) during the Nineteenth century to one where precipitation roughly equalled 

potential evapotranspiration during the Twentieth century. Droughts during the 1890s and 1930s were 

characterized by a negative water balance. Fire-season precipitation was particularly low in the 1890s. (3) 

Analyses of soil storage and effective precipitation showed that fires tended to take place during decades of high 

moisture deficits and in dry years occurring in the course of moister decades. In some cases where fire 

occurrence was not well predicted by annual water balance, fire was predicted by fire-season (March-June and 

October-November) water balance. Annual water balances of fire years showed higher deficits than those of 

non-fire years. The empirical relationship between fire history and long-term water balance provides a crude 

basis for prediction of changing wildfire regimes to be expected with climate change. (4) In the absence of fire 

suppression, fire frequency is predicted to increase by 10-25% during the Twentieth century as a consequence 

of a more negative water balance. 


Volume 77 

Issue 4 

Pages 989-1004 



ISSN 0022-0477 




Effects of site, landscape features, and fire regime on vegetation patterns in presettlement southern 

Wisconsin 


Author Lawrence A. Leitner 

Author Christopher P. Dunn 

Author Glenn R. Guntenspergen 

Author Forest Stearns 

Author David M. Sharpe 

Abstract The presettlement tree cover (1831 -33) of 3 townships in a southern Wisconsin landscape was analyzed using 

original survey records. Four forest types were identified: closed forest, open forest, savanna, and prairie. 

Comparisons of vegetation types and landscape pattern were made between the east and west sides of the 

Pecatonica River, which bisects the landscape and could have acted as a natural fire barrier. West of the river, 

presettlement tree species richness and diversity were lower and trees were smaller in diameter and less dense 

than to the east. The major vegetation types to the west were prairie (42% of landscape) and savanna (40%), 

both fire-susceptible types. Prairie was more common on gentle slopes than on other landforms. To the east, the 

landscape was 70% forested (closed plus open forest). Here, prairie was more frequent on steep dry sites. These 

vegetation differences, including the contrasting landscape placement of prairie, are attributed to distinct site 

characteristics and to disturbance (fire) regimes, with the west likely having more frequent fires. In terms of the 

four vegetation types, the east landscape was more homogeneous, being dominated by closed forest (50%). 

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West of the Pecatonica River, the landscape was more heterogeneous because of the high proportion of both 

prairie and savanna; however, in terms of flammability of vegetation, the west was essentially homogeneous 

(82% prairie plus savanna). 


Volume 5 

Issue 4 

Pages 203–217 



DOI 10.1007/BF00141435 

ISSN 0921-2973 (print) 1572-9761 (online) 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/ujp616418x175482/? 

p=e575bca388c14a28b9a3c7f76ead55d4&… 

Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire; heterogeneity; landscape pattern; topography; Wisconsin. 



Effects of syn-pandemic fire reduction and reforestation in the tropical Americas on atmospheric CO₂ 

during European conquest 


Author Richard J. Nevle 

Author Dennis K. Bird 

Abstract A new reconstruction of Late Holocene biomass burning in the tropical Americas is consistent with the 

expansion of fire use by Mesoamerican and Amazonian agriculturalists and a subsequent period of fire 

reduction beginning ~ 500 years BP. The marked reduction of biomass burning after ~ 500 years BP, a unique 

feature of the fire history of the tropical Americas relative to other regions of the globe, is synchronous with the 

collapse of the American indigenous population during pandemics accompanying European conquest. We 

predict that fire reduction contemporaneous with pandemics in the tropical Americas was associated with 

massive forest regeneration on ~ 5 × 10⁵ km² of land and sequestration of 5–10 Gt C into the terrestrial 

biosphere, which contributed to the ~ 2% global reduction in atmospheric CO₂ levels and the 0.1‰ increase in 

δ¹³C of atmospheric CO₂ from 1500 to 1750 A.D. This study 1) builds upon prior fire history reconstructions by 

synthesizing a substantially greater number of stratigraphic charcoal accumulation records and soil charcoal ¹⁴C 

dates to resolve features of the Late Holocene biomass burning record in the tropical Americas; and 2) 

corroborates the hypothesis advanced by Ruddiman [Ruddiman, W.F., 2003. The Anthropogenic Era began 

thousands of years ago. Climatic Change 61, 261–293, Ruddiman, W.F., 2005. Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum. 

Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey] that biospheric carbon sequestration via reforestation of 

cropland abandoned during pandemics contributed to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration during the past 

millennium. 

Publication Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 

Volume 264 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 25–38 


Journal Abbr PALAEO 

DOI 10.1016/j.palaeo.2008.03.008 

ISSN 0031-0182 


Extra Keywords: biomass burning; carbon dioxide; charcoal; pandemic; reforestation; Tropical forest. 



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Effects of vegetation zones and climatic changes on fire-induced atmospheric carbon emissions: A 

model based on paleodata 


Author Laurent Bremond 


Author Charly Favier 


Author Cédric Paitre 

Author Yves Bégin 



Abstract An original method is proposed for estimating past carbon emissions from fires in order to understand long-term 

changes in the biomass burning that, together with vegetation cover, act on the global carbon cycle and climate. 

The past carbon release resulting from paleo-fires during the Holocene is examined using a simple linear model 

between measured carbon emissions from modern fires and sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning 

within boreal and cold temperate forests in eastern Canada (Quebec, Ontario). Direct carbon emissions are 

estimated for each ecozone for the present period and the fire anomaly per kilo annum (ka) v. present day (0 ka) 

deduced from charcoal series of 46 lakes and peats. Over the postglacial, the Taiga Shield ecozone does not 

match the pattern of fire history and carbon release of Boreal Shield, Atlantic Maritime, and Mixedwood Plains 

ecozones. This feature results from different air mass influences and the timing of vegetation dynamics. Our 

estimations show, first, that the contribution of the Mixedwood Plains and the Atlantic Maritime ecozones on 

the total carbon emissions by fires remains negligible compared with the Boreal Shield. Second, the Taiga Shield 

plays a key role by maintaining important carbon emissions, given it is today a lower contributor. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1015–1025 



DOI 10.1071/WF09096 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Effects of vegetation zones and climatic changes on fire-induced atmospheric carbon emissions 


paper=WF09096 

Extra Keywords: air masses; biomass burning; boreal forest; Canadian vegetation ecozone; charcoal database; 

modelling; paleo-fires. 



Effects on ecosystems (Chapter 10) (Climate Change: The IPCC scientific assessment 1990) 



Author Terry V. Callaghan 


Author Enéas Salati 

Author Suresh K. Sinha 


Book Title Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) 


Place Cambridge, New York and Melbourne 


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Date 1990 

Pages 283-310 

ISBN 0521407206, 9780521407205 

Short Title Climate Change 

URL http://lamar.colostate.edu/~mryan/Publications/Melillo_et_al_1990_IPCC1_WG1.PDF 

Archive http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_first_assessment_1990_wg1.shtml 



El Niño lends more confidence to strong global warming 


Author Richard A. Kerr 

Abstract Some scientists have argued from observations that global warming will alter clouds in ways that will largely 

counter warming by greenhouse gases. But the overwhelming majority of climate scientists sides with the 

models, which show clouds changing in ways that amplify warming, not dampen it. Whom to believe? To help 

sort it out, a climate researcher looked at the example of El Niño and La Niña, naturally occurring weather 

patterns that cause warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) in the tropical Pacific and around the globe. In a 

report on page 1523 of this week's issue of Science, he analyzes how they have actually influenced clouds and 

concludes that—at least on the scale of decades—clouds do not counter warming. 


Volume 330 

Issue 6010 

Pages 1465-1465 



DOI 10.1126/science.330.6010.1465 





El Niño and climate change 


Author Kevin E. Trenberth 

Author Timothy J. Hoar 

Abstract A comprehensive statistical analysis of how an index of the Southern Oscillation changed from 1882 to 1995 

was given by Trenberth and Hoar [1996], with a focus on the unusual nature of the 1990–1995 El 

Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event in the context of an observed trend for more El Niño and fewer 

La Niña events after the late 1970s. The conclusions of that study have been challenged by two studies which 

deal with only the part of our results pertaining to the length of runs of anomalies of one sign in the Southern 

Oscillation Index. They therefore neglect the essence of Trenberth and Hoar, which focussed on the magnitude 

of anomalies for certain periods and showed that anomalies during both the post-1976 and 1990-mid-1995 

periods were highly unlikely given the previous record. With updated data through mid 1997, we have 

performed additional tests using a regression model with autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) errors that 

simultaneously estimates the appropriate ARMA model to fit the data and assesses the statistical significance of 

how unusual the two periods of interest are. The mean SOI for the post-1976 period is statistically different 

from the overall mean at


Volume 24 

Issue 23 

Pages 3057–3060 



DOI 10.1029/97GL03092 

ISSN 0094–8276 




El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska 


Author Jason C. Hess 

Author Carven A. Scott 

Author Gary L. Hufford 

Author Michael D. Fleming 

Abstract Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend 

on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited 

in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal 

temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal 

precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior 

increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the 

biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% 

of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated 

lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during 

five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%. 


Volume 10 

Issue 1 

Pages 1-13 



DOI 10.1071/WF01007 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: El Niño; ENSO; Alaska; wildfires; weather patterns; burned area. 



El Niño dynamics 


Author J. David Neelin 


Abstract Bringer of storms and droughts, the El Niño⁄Southern Oscillation results from the complex, sometimes chaotic 

interplay of ocean and atmosphere. 

Publication Physics Today 

Volume 51 

Issue 12 

Pages 32–36 

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Journal Abbr Phys. Today 

DOI 10.1063/1.882496 

ISSN 0031-9228 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.882496 



El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time 


Author Larissa L. Yocom 



Author Julián Cerano 

Author José Villanueva-Díaz 


Author Eladio Cornejo-Oviedo 

Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect 

precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and 

northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool 

events (La Niña) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern 

Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences. Fire regimes were reconstructed 

from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo 

León. The sites were ~25 ha each, and the site centers were ~1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 

1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645–1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface 

fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 

18.6 years (fires that scarred ≥25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and 

all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly 

eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between 

ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while 

after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past 

century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had 

survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but 

since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the 

last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in this location and that 

phases of ENSO are not consistent indicators of precipitation, fire occurrence, or fire behavior in this area of 

northeastern Mexico. 


Volume 91 

Issue 6 

Pages 1660-1671 



DOI 10.1890/09-0845.1 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: El Niño Southern Oscillation; fire history; fire scars; Peña Nevada; southern Nuevo León; Mexico; 

Pinus hartwegii. 



Emergence of a mid-season period of low floral resources in a montane meadow ecosystem associated 

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with climate change 


Author George Aldridge 

Author David W. Inouye 

Author Jessica R. K. Forrest 

Author William A. Barr 

Author Abraham J. Miller-Rushing 

Abstract Summary 1. Shifts in the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering could affect the resources available to 

pollinators, and such shifts might become more common as climate change progresses. 2. As mid-summer 

temperatures have warmed, we found that a montane meadow ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains of 

the United States exhibits a trend toward a bimodal distribution of flower abundance, characterized by a 

mid-season reduction in total flower number, instead of a broad, unimodal flowering peak lasting most of the 

summer season. 3. We examined the shapes of community-level flowering curves in this system and found that 

the typical unimodal peak results from a pattern of complementary peaks in flowering among three distinct 

meadow types (dry, mesic and wet) within the larger ecosystem. However, high mid-summer temperatures were 

associated with divergent shifts in the flowering curves of these individual meadow types. Specifically, warmer 

summers appeared to cause increasing bimodality in mesic habitats, and a longer interval between early and late 

flowering peaks in wet and dry habitats. 4. Together, these habitat-specific shifts produced a longer mid-season 

valley in floral abundance across the larger ecosystem in warmer years. Because of these warming-induced 

changes in flowering patterns, and the significant increase in summer temperatures in our study area, there has 

been a trend toward non-normality of flowering curves over the period 1974–2009. This trend reflects 

increasing bimodality in total community-wide flowering. 5. The resulting longer periods of low flowering 

abundance in the middle of the summer season could negatively affect pollinators that are active throughout the 

season, and shifts in flowering peaks within habitats might create mismatches between floral resources and 

demand by pollinators with limited foraging ranges. 6. Synthesis. Early-season climate conditions are getting 

warmer and drier in the high altitudes of the southern Rocky Mountains. We present evidence that this climate 

change is disrupting flowering phenology within and among different moisture habitats in a sub-alpine meadow 

ecosystem, causing a mid-season decline in floral resources that might negatively affect mutualists, especially 

pollinators. Our findings suggest that climate change can have complex effects on phenology at small spatial 

scales, depending on patch-level habitat differences. 


Volume 99 

Issue 4 

Pages 905-913 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01826.x 

ISSN 0022-0477 


Extra Keywords: climate change; cumulative flowering density; flower abundance; flowering phenology; plant– 

climate interactions; pollinators; resource availability; Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. 



Energy transformations and meridional circulations associated with simple baroclinic waves in a 

two-level, quasi-geostrophic model 


Author Norman A. Phillips 

Abstract The changes in geostrophic kinetic energy predicted by the “2 — ½ dimensional” quasi-geostrophic vorticity 

equations without friction are shown to be compatible with the mechanical energy equation. The second-order 

effects on a zonal current due to the presence of very simple unstable baroclinic waves are then analysed, using 

a two-level model of finite lateral width without friction or heat sources. In addition to the poleward transport of 

sensible heat and the creation of kinetic energy by these waves, it is shown that they are accompanied in this 

model by a weak meridional circulation. This circulation consists of an indirect cell in middle latitudes with 

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direct cells to the north and south. The possible importance of this mechanism in providing appropriately 

distributed sources and sinks of relative zonal momentum (and therefore in prescribing the distribution with 

latitude of the surface zonal winds) is demonstrated with the aid of Widger's observations of the horizontal 

momentum transfer by eddies during January 1946. Finally it is shown that about 95 per cent of the perturbation 

energy in the unstable waves of this type comes from the “potential energy” of the basic current, the small 

remainder coming from the kinetic energy of that current. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 273-286 



DOI 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1954.tb01123.x 

ISSN 0040-2826 




ENSO and PDO variability affect drought-induced fire occurrence in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests 


Author Tania Schoennagel 





Abstract Understanding the effect of variation in climate on large-fire occurrence across broad geographic areas is central 

to effective fire hazard assessment. The El Ninõ– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation (PDO) affect winter temperature and precipitation regimes in western North America through 

mid-latitude teleconnections. This study examines relationships of ENSO and the PDO to drought-induced fire 

occurrence in subalpine forests of three study areas across the Rocky Mountains: Jasper National Park (JNP, 

northern Rockies), Yellowstone National Park (YNP, central Rockies) and Rocky Mountain National Park 

(RMNP, southern Rockies) over the 1700–1975 period. Large-scale climatic anomalies captured by ENSO 

(NINÕ3) and PDO indices had differential effects on large-fire occurrence across the study areas. Superposed 

epoch analysis (SEA) showed that large fires in RMNP occurred during extreme La Ninã years, while the PDO, 

although predominantly negative during fire years, did not depart significantly from the mean. In YNP and JNP, 

neither ENSO nor PDO indices were significantly different from the mean during large-fire years, although fires 

tended to occur during El Ninõ and positive PDO years. Constructive phases (years of combined warm 

[positive] or cool [negative] phases) of ENSO and the PDO were significantly associated with large-fire 

occurrence across the Rockies, even though these large-scale climatic anomalies were not significant when 

considered singly in SEAs. Combined warm phases (positive PDO during El Ninõ) co-occurred with large fires 

in the central and northern Rockies, while the combined cool phases (negative PDO during La Ninã) appeared 

to promote large fires in the southern Rockies. Almost 70% of large fires in RMNP burned during La Ninã 

events that coincided with a negative PDO, although these phases co-occurred during only 29% of the 1700– 

1975 period. Spatial teleconnection patterns between drought, PDO and ENSO across western North America 

independently support the sign and strength of relationships between these climatic anomalies and subalpine fire 

occurrence along a broad north–south gradient of the Rockies. Forecasts of ENSO that are dependent on the 

expected PDO phase suggest promise for fire hazard prediction across the West. 


Volume 15 

Issue 6 

Pages 2000–2014 



DOI 10.1890/04-1579 

ISSN 1051-0761 

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Extra Keywords: climate; drought; El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation; fire ecology; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; subalpine 

forests. 



ENSO as a forewarning tool of regional fire occurrence in northern Patagonia, Argentina 

Notes: 



Abstract Composite series of ENSO indices recorded over 36 months preceding major fire years in four National Parks in 

northern Patagonia were compared with series of these indices for individual years over the period 1950–1996 

by means of an additive temporal phase coherence index. Logistic regressions of the dichotomous variable high 

vs low regional fire occurrence against the coherence index gained highest significant classificatory power using 

an index based on SST anomaly data between January of year –3 to August of year –1. Thus, warnings of 

extreme fire seasons could be declared as early as 3 months before the full fire season starts (i.e. early 

September). A regional fire season readiness index is proposed based on the periodicity of the Southern 

Oscillation, strong links with climate at particular regions of the globe, and empirically derived climatic controls 

on fine fuel buildup and coarse fuel desiccation. This long-range alerting tool could help decision-makers 

prepare preventative measures to mitigate the effects of large, high intensity wildfire seasons. However, it 

should be used with caution given that differences in timing in the onset of ENSO events and instability in 

teleconnection patterns could change climatic sequences, differentially affecting fire susceptibility. 


Volume 11 

Issue 1 

Pages 33-39 



DOI 10.1071/WF01041 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: ENSO; regional fire occurrence; El Niño; forecasting; Patagonia. 



Composite series of ENSO indices recorded over 36 months preceding major fire years in four National Parks in northern Patagonia 

were compared with series of these indices for individual years over the period 1950–1996 by means of an additive temporal phase 

coherence index. Logistic regressions of the dichotomous variable high vs low regional fire occurrence against the coherence index 

gained highest significant classificatory power using an index based on SST anomaly data between January of year –3 to August of 

year –1. Thus, warnings of extreme fire seasons could be declared as early as 3 months before the full fire season starts (i.e. early 

September). A regional fire season readiness index is proposed based on the periodicity of the Southern Oscillation, strong links with 

climate at particular regions of the globe, and empirically derived climatic controls on fine fuel buildup and coarse fuel desiccation. 

This long-range alerting tool could help decision-makers prepare preventative measures to mitigate the effects of large, high intensity 

wildfire seasons. However, it should be used with caution given that differences in timing in the onset of ENSO events and instability 

in teleconnection patterns could change climatic sequences, differentially affecting fire susceptibility. 

Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales 


Author Marc-André Parisien 


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Abstract Despite its widespread occurrence globally, wildfire preferentially occupies an environmental middle ground and 

is significantly less prevalent in biomes characterized by environmental extremes (e.g., tundra, rain forests, and 

deserts). We evaluated the biophysical “environmental space” of wildfire from regional to subcontinental 

extents, with methods widely used for modeling habitat distributions. This approach is particularly suitable for 

the biogeographic study of wildfire, because it simultaneously considers patterns in multiple factors controlling 

wildfire suitability over large areas. We used the Maxent and boosted regression tree algorithms to assess 

wildfire–environment relationships for three levels of complexity (in terms of inclusion of variables) at three 

spatial scales: the conterminous United States, the state of California, and five wildfire-prone ecoregions of 

California. The resulting models were projected geographically to obtain spatial predictions of wildfire 

suitability and were also applied to other regions to assess their generality and spatial transferability. Predictions 

of the potential range of wildfire had high classification accuracy; they also highlighted areas where wildfires 

had not recently been observed, indicating the potential (or past) suitability of these areas. The models identified 

several key variables that were not suspected to be important in the large-scale control of wildfires, but which 

might indirectly affect control by influencing the presence of flammable vegetation. Models transferred to 

different areas were useful only when they overlapped appreciably with the target area's environmental space. 

This approach should allow exploration of the potential shifts in wildfire range in a changing climate, the 

potential for restoration of wildfire where it has been “extirpated,” and, conversely, the “invasiveness” of 

wildfire after changes in plant species composition. Our study demonstrates that habitat distribution models and 

related concepts can be used to characterize environmental controls on a natural disturbance process, but also 

that future work is needed to refine our understanding of the direct causal factors controlling wildfire at multiple 

spatial scales. 


Volume 79 

Issue 1 

Pages 127-154 



DOI 10.1890/07-1289.1 

ISSN 0012-9615 


Extra Keywords: boosted regression trees; disturbance ecology; environmental space; fire regime controls; habitat 

distribution models; Maxent algorithm; spatial fire prediction; wildfire. 



Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model 


Author Andrea Meyn 

Author Peter S. White 

Author Constanze Buhk 

Author Anke Jentsch 

Abstract Large, infrequent fires (LIFs) can have substantial impacts on both ecosystems and the economy. To better 

understand LIFs and to better predict the effects of human management and climate change on their 

occurrence, we must first determine the factors that produce them. Here, we review local and regional literature 

investigating the drivers of LIFs. The emerging conceptual model proposes that ecosystems can be typified 

based on climatic conditions that determine both fuel moisture and fuel amount. The concept distinguishes three 

ecosystem types: (1) biomass-rich, rarely dry ecosystems where fuel moisture rather than fuel amount limits 

LIFs; (2) biomass-poor, at least seasonally dry ecosystems where fuel amount rather than fuel moisture limits 

LIFs; and (3) biomass-poor, rarely dry ecosystems where both fuel amount and fuel moisture limit the 

occurrence of LIFs. Our main goal in this paper is to discuss the drivers of LIFs and the three mentioned 

ecosystem types in a global context. Further, we will discuss the drivers that are not included within the `fuels' 

versus `climate' discussion. Finally, we will address the question: what kinds of additional information are 

needed if models predicting LIFs are to be coupled with global climate models? As with all generalizations, 

there are local deviations and modifications due to processes such as disturbance interaction or human impact. 

These processes tend to obscure the general patterns of the occurrence of LIFs and are likely to cause much of 

the observed controversy and confusion in the literature. 

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Publication Progress in Physical Geography 

Volume 31 

Issue 3 

Pages 287 -312 


Journal Abbr Prog. Phys. Geog. 

DOI 10.1177/0309133307079365 

ISSN 1477-0296 

Short Title Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires 

URL http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/31/3/287.abstract 

Extra Keywords: biomass; climate; disturbance interaction; fire size; fire suppression; fire weather; fuel amount; fuel 

moisture. 



Estimates of CO₂ from fires in the United States: Implications for carbon management 


Author Christine Wiedinmyer 

Author Jason C. Neff 

Abstract • Background: Fires emit significant amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly 

variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO₂ emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The 

combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO₂ 

emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques 

to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on 

atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO₂ emissions; a task that may 

prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO₂ emissions from fires 

across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and Net Primary Productivity, 

and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development. • Results: Average annual CO₂ 

emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002– 2006 are estimated to be 213 (± 50 std. 

dev.) Tg CO₂ yr⁻¹ and 80 (± 89 std. dev.) Tg CO₂ yr⁻¹ in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual 

and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source 

regions for US fire CO₂ emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic 

variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO₂ 

emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4–6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at 

the statelevel, fire emissions of CO₂ can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel usage. 

• Conclusion: The CO₂ released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net 

Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO₂ during fires are partially 

counterbalanced by uptake of CO₂ by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire 

severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO₂ and the short-term impacts of fire 

emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial. 

Publication Carbon Balance and Management 

Volume 2 

Issue 10 

Pages 12 p. 


Journal Abbr Carbon Bal. Manage 

DOI 10.1186/1750-0680-2-10 

ISSN 1750-0680 

URL http://www.cbmjournal.com/content/2/1/10 



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Estimating wildfire behavior and effects 


Author Frank A. Albini 

Abstract This paper presents a brief survey of the research literature on wildfire behavior and effects and assembles 

formulae and graphical computation aids based on selected theoretical and empirical models. The uses of 

mathematical fire behavior models are discussed, and the general capabilities and limitations of currently 

available models are outlined. Rothermel's fire spread model is used to develop nomographs for estimating rate 

of spread, reaction intensity, and flame length for a variety of fuel complexes, under widely variable conditions. 

Factors affecting spread rate and overall shape of a fire are quantified, as well as some fire effects such as 

crown scorching and duff removal. Appendices give more details of the formulations presented graphically in 

the text, including the definitions of terms used to quantify fire behavior and effects and tables of numerical 

factors for converting values to different units of measurement. 




Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 

Date 1976 

Pages 92 p. 


Extra Keywords: fire control; fire behavior model; fire management; computer program. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Albini, Frank A. 1976. Estimating wildfire behavior and effects. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-30. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 92 p. 

Evaluating predictive models of critical live fuel moisture in the Santa Monica Mountains, California 


Author Philip E. Dennison 


Author Robert S. Taylor 

Abstract Large wildfires in the Santa Monica Mountains of southern California occur when low levels of live and dead 

fuel moisture coincide with Santa Ana wind events. Declining live fuel moisture may reach a threshold that 

increases susceptibility to large wildfires. Live fuel moisture and fire history data for the Santa Monica 

Mountains from 1984 to 2005 were used to determine a potential critical live fuel moisture threshold, below 

which large fires become much more likely. The ability of live fuel moisture, remote sensing, and precipitation 

variables to predict the annual timing of 71 and 77% live fuel moisture thresholds was assessed. Spring 

precipitation, measured through the months of March, April, and May, was found to be strongly correlated with 

the annual timing of both live fuel moisture thresholds. Large fires in the Santa Monica Mountains only occurred 

after the 77% threshold was surpassed, although most large fires occurred after the less conservative 71% 

threshold. Spring precipitation has fluctuated widely over the past 70 years but does not show evidence of 

long-term trends. Predictive models of live fuel moisture threshold timing may improve planning for large fires 

in chaparral ecosystems. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 18–27 


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DOI 10.1071/WF07017 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: chamise; chaparral; precipitation; wildfire danger. 



Evidence for active El Niño Southern Oscillation variability in the Late Miocene greenhouse climate 


Author Simone Galeotti 

Author Anna von der Heydt 

Author Matthew Huber 

Author David Bice 

Author Henk Dijkstra 

Author Tom Jilbert 

Author Luca Lanci 

Author Gert-Jan Reichart 

Abstract An evaporite varve thickness record from the Late Miocene Mediterranean reveals significant signals of 

interannual variability, the frequency and persistence of which are compared with climatic oscillations affecting 

the region today. Sustained variability in the 2–7 yr band resembles the modern spectrum of the El Niño 

Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and contrasts with that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the cyclicity of 

which is less stationary in frequency and less sustained in duration. Fully coupled climate model simulations 

demonstrate not only that ENSO variability persisted during the Late Miocene, but also that its teleconnections 

may have extended further than today, as high-latitude climate modes weakened due to a reduced meridional 

temperature gradient. ENSO appears to have exerted a stronger influence on the evaporative balance of the 

Mediterranean in the Late Miocene than it does today. This evidence suggests that the Pacific prior to the 

Northern Hemisphere glaciation was characterized by ongoing interannual variability. 


Volume 38 

Issue 5 

Pages 419-422 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1130/G30629.1 

ISSN 1943-2682 

URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/38/5/419.abstract 



Evidence for habitual use of fire at the end of the Lower Paleolithic: Site-formation processes at Qesem 

Cave, Israel 


Author Panagiotis Karkanas 

Author Ruth Shahack-Gross 

Author Avner Ayalon 

Author Mira Bar-Matthews 

Author Ran Barkai 

Author Amos Frumkin 

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Author Avi Gopher 

Author Mary C. Stiner 

Abstract The Amudian (late Lower Paleolithic) site of Qesem Cave in Israel represents one of the earliest examples of 

habitual use of fire by middle Pleistocene hominids. The Paleolithic layers in this cave were studied using a suite 

of mineralogical and chemical techniques and a contextual sedimentological analysis (i.e., micromorphology). 

We show that the lower ca. 3 m of the stratigraphic sequence are dominated by clastic sediments deposited 

within a closed karstic environment. The deposits were formed by small-scale, concentrated mud slurries 

(infiltrated terra rosa soil) and debris flows. A few intervening lenses of mostly in situ burnt remains were also 

identified. The main part of the upper ca. 4.5 m consists of anthropogenic sediment with only moderate amounts 

of clastic geogenic inputs. The deposits are strongly cemented with calcite that precipitated from dripping water. 

The anthropogenic component is characterized by completely combusted, mostly reworked wood ash with only 

rare remnants of charred material. Micromorphological and isotopic evidence indicates recrystallization of the 

wood ash. Large quantities of burnt bone, defined by a combination of microscopic and macroscopic criteria, 

and moderately heated soil lumps are closely associated with the woodash remains. The frequent presence of 

microscopic calcified rootlets indicates that the upper sequence formed in the vicinity of the former cave 

entrance. Burnt remains in the sediments are associated with systematic blade production and faunas that are 

dominated by the remains of fallow deer. Use-wear damage on blades and blade tools in conjunction with 

numerous cut marks on bones indicate an emphasis on butchering and prey-defleshing activities in the vicinity 

of fireplaces. 

Publication Journal of Human Evolution 

Volume 53 

Issue 2 

Pages 197-212 


Journal Abbr J. Hum. Evol. 

DOI 10.1016/j.jhevol.2007.04.002 

ISSN 0047-2484 


Extra Keywords: micromorphology; geoarchaeology; fire; wood ash; Amudian; Lower Paleolithic. 



Evidence for the postconquest demographic collapse of the Americas in historical CO₂ levels 


Author Franz X. Faust 

Author Cristóbal Gnecco 

Author Hermann Mannstein 

Author Jörg Stamm 

Abstract This article promotes the hypothesis that the massive demographic collapse of the native populations of the 

Americas triggered by the European colonization brought about the abandonment of large expanses of 

agricultural fields soon recovered by forests, which in due turn fixed atmospheric CO₂ in significant quantities. 

This hypothesis is supported by measurements of atmospheric CO₂ levels in ice cores from Law Dome, 

Antarctica. Changing the focus from paleoclimate to global population dynamics and using the same causal 

chain, the measured drop in historic atmospheric CO₂ levels can also be looked upon as further, strong evidence 

for the postconquest demographic collapse of the Americas. 

Publication Earth Interactions 

Volume 10 

Issue 11 

Pages 1–14 

Date May 2006 

Journal Abbr Earth Interact. 

DOI 10.1175/EI157.1 

ISSN 1087-3562 

194 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/EI157.1 

Extra Keywords: climate; forest; carbon. 



Exploring use of climate information in wildland fire management: A decision calendar study 


Author Thomas W. Corringham 


Author Barbara J. Morehouse 

Abstract Wildfire management is an institutionally complex process involving a complex budget and appropriations 

cycle, a variety of objectives, and a set of internal and external political constraints. Significant potential exists 

for enhancing the use of climate information and long-range climate forecasts in wildland fire management in 

the Western U.S. Written surveys and interviews of fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national 

levels, provide information and insights into the decision processes, information flows, and decision nodes used 

in wildfire planning and management, and allow the construction of decision calendars showing how climate 

information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. Potential exists for 

fostering use of climate information, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational 

levels, ultimately opening possibilities for improved targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, more 

effective positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and improved staffing and budgeting decisions. 

Longer-term (decadal) forecasts could be useful at the national level in setting budget and research priorities. 

We examine the kinds of organizational changes that could facilitate effective use of existing climate 

information and climate forecast capabilities. 

Date 2006 

Proceedings Title Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium: Unifying Knowledge for Sustainability in the Western 

Hemisphere 

Conference Name Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium, September 20-24, 2004, Denver, CO 



Pages 603-613 

Series Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD 

Short Title Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management 


Archive http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p042.html 

Loc. in Archive USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD 

Extra Keywords: monitoring; assessment; sustainability; Western Hemisphere; sustainable management; ecosystem 

resources; climate; wildland fire management. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Corringham, Thomas W.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Morehouse, Barbara J. 2006. Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland 

Fire Management: A Decision Calendar Study. In: Aguirre-Bravo, C.; Pellicane, Patrick J.; Burns, Denver P.; and Draggan, Sidney, 

Eds. 2006. Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium: Unifying Knowledge for Sustainability in the Western Hemisphere 

Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 

603-613. 

Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials 


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Author Peter J. Fawcett 

Author Josef P. Werne 


Author Jeffrey M. Heikoop 

Author Erik T. Brown 

Author Melissa A. Berke 

Author Susan J. Smith 

Author Fraser Goff 

Author Linda Donohoo-Hurley 

Author Luz M. Cisneros-Dozal 

Author Stefan Schouten 

Author Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté 

Author Yongsong Huang 

Author Jaime Toney 

Author Julianna Fessenden 

Author Giday WoldeGabriel 

Author Viorel Atudorei 

Author John W. Geissman 


Abstract The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the 

semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the 

instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia1, were shorter and climatically 

different from the future permanent, ‘dust-bowl-like’ megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that 

are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts 

occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of 

aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using 

molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene 

lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during 

the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A 

collapse of drought-tolerant C₄ plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant 

reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. 

Three MAT cycles ~2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond 

to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher 

precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4–6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, 

suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern 

US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and 

implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase. 


Volume 470 

Issue 7335 

Pages 518-521 



DOI 10.1038/nature09839 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Extent and status of Midwest oak savanna: Presettlement and 1985 


Author Victoria A. Nuzzo 

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Abstract Oak savanna covered some 11,000,000 to 13,000,000 hectares of the Midwest at the time of settlement, 

extending over portions of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. 

Definitions for the community vary between the states, due in part to different concepts of the presettlement 

appearance and structure of the community, a general lack of phytosociological data about oak savanna, and 

difficulty in interpreting historical data. Community definitions, a map of the real or potential distribution of 

presettlement oak savanna, and description and location of high quality savanna remnants, are presented for 

each state. In 1985, 113 sites totaling more than 2,607 hectares of relatively high-quality oak savanna were 

located in the Midwest, approximately 0.02 percent of the presettlement extent of the community. 

Publication Natural Areas Journal 

Volume 6 

Issue 2 

Pages 6–36 

Date 1986 

Journal Abbr Nat. Areas J. 

ISSN 0885-8608 

Short Title Extent and status of Midwest oak savanna 

URL http://www.epa.gov/ecopage/upland/oak/oak94/Proceedings/Nuzzo.html 



External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability 


Author Odd Helge Otterå 

Author Mats Bentsen 

Author Helge Drange 

Author Lingling Suo 

Abstract Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature 

of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations, with potential impacts on regional climate5. To understand 

the observed variability and to gauge any potential for climate predictions it is essential to identify the physical 

mechanisms that lead to this variability, and to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal 

variability modes. Here we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model to show that the phasing 

of the multidecadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic during the past 600 years is, to a large degree, governed by 

changes in the external solar and volcanic forcings. We find that volcanoes play a particularly important part in 

the phasing of the multidecadal variability through their direct influence on tropical sea-surface temperatures, 

on the leading mode of northern-hemisphere atmosphere circulation and on the Atlantic thermohaline 

circulation. We suggest that the implications of our findings for decadal climate prediction are twofold: because 

volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted a decade in advance, longer-term climate predictability may prove 

challenging, whereas the systematic post-eruption changes in ocean and atmosphere may hold promise for 

shorter-term climate prediction. 


Volume 3 

Issue 10 

Pages 688-694 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo955 

ISSN 1752-0894 




Extreme fires under warmer and drier conditions inferred from sedimentary charcoal morphotypes from 

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Opatcho Lake, central British Columbia, Canada 


Author Mihaela D. Enache 

Author Brian F. Cumming 

Abstract Predictions of the extent of forest fires under warmer and drier conditions in boreal regions require knowledge 

of long-term relationships between fire and climate. However, many long-term studies that utilize the remains of 

total charcoal in lacustrine sediments fail to demonstrate a relationship between climate change and fire activity. 

A new approach to reconstruct the relative-area burned based on specific types of charcoal particles (the 

charcoal-morphotype (CM) fire index) has shown significant correlations to recorded forest fires. Here we 

assess the utility of the CM derived from an analysis of charcoal morphotypes in sediment cores from Opatcho 

Lake (British Columbia, Canada) using two independent paleoclimate proxies over the last 400 years, and since 

the mid Holocene. Over the past 400 years, significant correlations between the CM fire index and independent 

climate reconstructions (diatom-inferred salinity, dendroclimatic reconstructions of temperature and 

precipitation, and reconstructions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) range from 0.35 to 0.42. Similarly, since 

the mid Holocene the correlation between the CM fire index and independent proxies of past climate (diatominferred 

salinity and temperature inferences from chironomids from the southern interior of British Columbia) 

range from 0.70 to 0.76. These significant correlations strongly contrast with the very low and insignificant 

correlations between the CM fire index and total charcoal, suggesting that this approach provides paleofire 

information not available from traditional techniques. The CMfire index suggests that fires were at least twoand 

five-fold larger than those observed during the instrumental period, over the last 400 and 6000 years, 

respectively. 


Volume 19 

Issue 6 

Pages 835-846 



DOI 10.1177/0959683609337357 

ISSN 0959-6836 


Extra Keywords: fire index; climate; charcoal morphotypes; total charcoal; diatoms; Holocene; Opatcho Lake; British 

Columbia; Canada. 



Factors affecting sustained smouldering in organic soils from pocosin and pond pine woodland wetlands 


Author James Reardon 

Author Roger Hungerford 

Author Kevin Ryan 

Abstract The smouldering combustion of peat and muck soil plays an important role in the creation and maintenance of 

wetland communities. This experimental study was conducted to improve our understanding of how moisture 

and mineral content constrain smouldering in organic soil. Laboratory burning was conducted with root mat and 

muck soil samples from pocosin and pond pine woodland wetlands common on the North Carolina coastal plain. 

The results of laboratory and prescribed burning were compared. Laboratory results showed that moisture and 

mineral content influenced sustained smouldering in root mat soils. Predictions based on logistic regression 

analysis show that root mat soils with an average mineral content of 4.5% had an estimated 50% probability of 

sustained smouldering at a moisture content of 93%, whereas at moisture contents above 145% the estimated 

probability was less than 10%. The odds that root mat soil will sustain smouldering decrease by 19.3% for each 

5% increase in moisture content. Root mat soils with an average mineral content of 5.5% and a moisture content 

of 93% had an estimated 61% probability of sustained smouldering. The odds that root mat soil will sustain 

smouldering combustion increased by 155.9% with each 1% increase in mineral content. Root mat and muck 

soils differ in physical and chemical characteristics expected to influence smouldering behaviour. The formation 

of muck soil has led to increases in density, smaller soil particle size, changes in water holding characteristics 

and increases in waxes, resins and bituminous compounds. Muck soil smouldered at higher moisture contents 

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than root mat soil. Muck soil at a moisture content of 201% had an estimated 50% probability of sustained 

smouldering, whereas at moisture contents above 260% the estimated probability was less than 10%. The odds 

that muck soil will sustain smouldering combustion decrease by 17.2% with each 5% increase in moisture 

content. Ground fire in the prescribed burns stopped its vertical spread in organic soils at moisture contents 

consistent with logistic regression predictions developed from our laboratory results. 


Volume 16 

Issue 1 

Pages 107–118 



DOI 10.1071/WF06005 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF06005 



Federal forest-fire policy in the United States 



Author Lawrence W. Ruth 

Abstract Forest-fire policy of U.S. federal agencies has evolved from the use of small patrols in newly created National 

Parks to diverse policy initiatives and institutional arrangements that affect millions of hectares of forests. Even 

with large expenditures and substantial infrastructure dedicated to fire suppression, the annual area burned by 

wildfire has increased over the last decade. Given the current and future challenges of fire management, and 

based on analytical research and review of existing policies and their implications, we believe several changes 

and re-emphases in existing policy are warranted. Most importantly, the actual goal of fuels-management 

projects should be the reduction of potential fire behavior and effects, not the simple reduction of fuels. To 

improve safety and economic efficiency, fire-suppression policies should recognize differences in the 

characteristics of wildfires, and strategies should be tailored to better respond to the unique demands of each 

fire. Where forest fires are burning large areas, as in the western United States, reducing the trend of increased 

amounts of burned area may require a diversity of treatments, including prescribed burning, mechanical fuels 

treatment, and increased use of the Wildland Fire Use Policy. Assessment of how fire is affecting forests would 

be enhanced if land-management agencies reported the area burned by low-, mixed-, and high-severity fire and 

what proportion is outside the desired trend or range of conditions for each forest type. Congress should provide 

an improved budgetary process for fire and fuels management, with a larger annual federal fire-suppression 

budget. Additionally, reducing annual area burned will require long-term coordinated efforts by federal and state 

governments, with robust partnerships between land-management agencies and the public in collaborative 

planning and stewardship. Research and adaptive management are essential in allowing fire-hazard-reduction 

projects to move forward where proposed projects are met with uncertainty and mistrust. While legislative 

reform may be desirable, a strategy that is not entirely dependent on new legislation is needed. Building on 

existing programs that are consistent with a science-based strategy will enable land-management agencies to 

better utilize information in pursuit of the overall objective of reducing uncharacteristically severe wildfires. 


Volume 15 

Issue 2 

Pages 532-542 



DOI 10.1890/04-0545 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/04-0545 

Extra Keywords: fire hazard; fire suppression; forest policy; fuels management; U.S. government policy; wildfire. 


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Feedbacks between climate and boreal forests during the Holocene epoch 


Author Jonathan A. Foley 


Author Michael T. Coe 

Author Samuel Levis 

Abstract PREVIOUS studies have demonstrated that the predictions of global climate models are highly sensitive to large 

changes in vegetation cover, such as the complete removal of tropical or boreal forests. Although these studies 

have illustrated the potential effects of massive deforestation on the climate system, vegetation changes of this 

scale are very unlikely to occur. Investigating past environments may better illustrate the possible interactions 

between climate and vegetation cover. For example, palaeobotanical evidence indicates that 6,000 years ago 

boreal forests extended north of the modern treeline, apparently in response to high-latitude warming resulting 

from variations in the Earth's orbit. The expanded boreal forests, which took the place of tundra, must also have 

affected climate by significantly reducing the surface albedo. Here we use a global climate model to examine 

the relative effects of orbitally-induced insolation variations and of the northward extension of boreal forests on 

the mid-Holocene climate. Orbital variations alone warm the high latitudes by 2 °C or more in summer, autumn 

and winter. The subsequent northward extension of boreal forests gives rise to an additional warming of 

approximately 4 °C in spring and about 1 °C in the other seasons. This suggests that large positive feedbacks 

between climate and boreal forests may have taken place in the recent geological past. 


Volume 371 

Issue 6492 

Pages 52–54 



DOI 10.1038/371052a0 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v371/n6492/abs/371052a0.html 



Figures on Global Climate Show 2010 Tied 2005 as the Hottest Year on Record 

Type Newspaper Article 

Author Justin Gillis 


Publication The New York Times 

Place New York 


Section Science / Environment 

ISSN 0362-4331 

URL http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/13/science/earth/13climate.html 




Fire and climate change during the last 750 yr in northwestern Minnesota 

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Abstract Charcoal stratigraphic analysis and fire scars on red pine (Pinus resinosa) trees were used to determine spatial 

and temporal occurrence of fire in 1 km² of old—growth mixed conifer/hardwood forests in northwestern 

Minnesota. Charcoal was analyzed year by year on petrographic thin sections from annually laminated 

sediments of three small (≤5 ha) lakes having adjacent catchments. Dated fire scars (n = 150) from recent 

treefalls provided an independent record of the spatial patterns of past burns. Sedimentology of the varved 

sediments, water—balance models that use 150 yr of instrumental temperature and precipitation data, and 

published data were used to identify climate changes in separate studies, and they were used in this study to 

examine the possible connection between changing fire regimes and climate change. Fire—history data were 

used to show the changing probability of fire with time since the last fire and the effects of spatial variance 

(slope and aspect) on the distribution of fires through time. Over the last 750 yr, fire was most frequent (8.6 ± 

2.9—yr intervals) during the warm/dry 15th and 16th centuries. Intervals were longer (13.2 ± 8.0 yr) during 

cooler/moister times from AD 1240 to 1440 and since 1600 (the Little Ice Age). The fire regime during the 

Little Ice Age consisted of periods during the mid—18th and mid—19th centuries characterized by longer fire 

intervals of 24.5 ± 10.4 and 43.6 ± 15.9 yr, respectively, and short—term warm/dry periods from 1770 to 1820 

and 1870 to 1920 when intervals were 17.9 ± 10.6 and 12.7 ± 10.1, respectively. The probability of fire 

increased through time, probably in step with fuel accumulation. South— and west—facing slopes burned more 

frequently than did north and east aspects. Fire suppression began in 1910. During warm periods, probability of 

fire was sufficiently high that a continuous litter layer was all that was necessary for fire to spread and scar 

trees. During cool and moist times fire was most likely to occur in years with higher moisture deficits. The 

combined methods for fire—history analysis provided a more detailed spatial and temporal documentation of 

fire regimes than has previously been possible from analysis of fire scars or of charcoal counts derived from 

fossil pollen preparations. Results support predictions of particle—motion physics that thin sections record a 

local fire history. Because climate varies continuously, the responsiveness of disturbance regime to short— and 

long—term climatic change suggests caution in the interpretation of fire frequencies that derive from space/time 

analogies or extrapolation from short—term data. 


Volume 60 

Issue 2 

Pages 135–159 



DOI 10.2307/1943042 

ISSN 0012-9615 


Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; climatic change; fire history; fire scars; forest dynamics; fuel loading; Itasca; 

Little Ice Age; Minnesota; stochastic process; thin sections; varves. 



Fire and climatic change in temperate ecosystems of the western Americas 

Type Book 

Editor Thomas T. Veblen 

Editor William L. Baker 

Editor Gloria Montenegro 

Editor Thomas W. Swetnam 



Volume 160 




Date 2003 

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ISBN 978-0-387-95455-4 

URL http://www.springer.com/life+sciences/ecology/book/978-0-387-95455-4 

Extra Keywords: climate change; ecology; fire; forest management. 



Fire and geomorphic processes 



Abstract Fire, geomorphic processes, and landforms interact to determine natural patterns of ecosystems over landscapes. 

Fire alters vegetation and soil properties which change soil and sediment movement through watersheds. 

Landforms affect fire behavior and form firebreaks which determine burn boundaries. Geomorphic 

consequences of fire in a landscape-ecosystem type are determined by (a) characteristics of the fire regime, 

mainly frequency and intensity; and (b) geomorphic sensitivity or erodibility of the landscape. 

Date 1981 

Proceedings Title Proceedings, Fire Regimes and Ecosystems Conference 

Conference Name Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 11-15, 1978 


Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, D.C , General Technical Report WO-26 

Pages 401-420 

URL http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/search/Show_Catalog_Item.cfm? 

Catalog_id=157&Catalog_type=Publication&topnav=82 

Extra Keywords: fire; erosion; watershed management; sedimentation. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Swanson, F.J., 1981, Fire and geomorphic processes, in Mooney, H.A., et al., eds., Proceedings, Fire Regimes and Ecosystems 

Conference: Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, General Technical Report WO-26, p. 401–420. 

Swanson, Frederick J. 1981. Fire and geomorphic processes. In: Mooney, H. A.; Christensen, T. M.; Lotan, J. E.; Reiners, W. A., eds. 

Proceedings of the conference on fire regimes and ecosystems; Honolulu, HI. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-26. Washington, DC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: 401-420. 

Fire and land management planning and implementation across multiple scales 




Abstract Ecosystem conditions on Federal public lands have changed, particularly within the last 30 years. Wildfires in 

the west have increased to levels close to or above those estimated for historical conditions, despite increasing 

efforts and expertise in fire prevention and suppression capability. To reverse these trends, planning for fire and 

land management policies, budgets, and restoration must address multiple decision levels (national, regional, 

local, and project) and incorporate an improved understanding of conditions and their linkage across these 

scales. Three fundamental issues are identified and discussed that relate to traditional types of planning and the 

associated lack of achievement of multi-scale integrated resource and fire objectives. Various examples of 

planning that address these three fundamental issues at different scales are compared to traditional types of 

planning. Outcomes predicted for an example national scale landscape dynamics model are used to illustrate the 

differences between three different multi-scale management scenarios. 

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Volume 10 

Issue 4 

Pages 389–403 

Date 2001 


DOI 10.1071/WF01037 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem management; landscape ecology; land management planning; fire management planning. 



Fire and landscape diversity in subalpine forests of Yellowstone National Park 



Abstract Fire history was determined by fire scar analysis in a 73—km² subalpine watershed in Yellowstone National 

Park, Wyoming, USA. Evidence was found for 15 fires since 1600, of which 7 were major fires that burned >4 

ha, destroyed the existing forest, and initiated secondary succession. Most of the upland forest area was burned 

by large, destructive fires in the middle and late 1700's. Fires since then have been small and have occurred at 

long intervals. Fire frequency in this area is partly controlled by changes in the fuel complex during succession. 

Fuels capable of supporting a crown fire usually do not develop until a stand is 300—400 yr old, and ignitions 

prior to that time usually extinguish naturally before covering more than a few hectares. Thereafter a destructive 

crown fire is likely whenever lightning ignites small fuels during warm, dry, windy weather. On the extensive 

subalpine plateaus of Yellowstone National Park there appears to be a natural fire cycle of 300—400 yr in 

which large areas burn during a short period, followed by a long, relatively fire—free period during which a 

highly flammable fuel complex again develops. The 73—km² study area appears to be about midway between 

major fire events in this cycle. This, rather than human fire suppression, apparently is the major reason for the 

small number and size of fires in the area during the last 180 yr. On the basis of the fire history data, the 

sequence of vegetation mosaics during the last 200 yr was reconstructed for the watershed. Indices of landscape 

diversity were computed for each reconstruction, treating forest types and successional stages as taxa and 

incorporating components of richness, evenness, and patchiness. Landscape diversity was highest in the early 

1800's following the large fires in the 1700's, then declined in the late 1800's during a 70—yr period when no 

major fires occurred and the landscape was dominated by even—aged forests developing on the areas burned in 

the 1700's. Landscape diversity has increased somewhat during the last half—century as a result of two small 

fires and the effects of the mountain pine beetle. These landscape reconstructions for the last 200 yr suggest that 

the Yellowstone subalpine ecosystem is a nonsteady—state system characterized by long—term, cyclic changes 

in landscape composition and diversity. Such cyclic patterns may significantly influence wildlife habitat, 

streamflow, nutrient cycling, and other ecological processes and characteristics within the Park, and they may 

be an important consideration in judging whether recent ecological changes are natural or man induced. The 

landscape reconstructions were also made using a simulation model based on hypothetical fire management 

policies of total fire exclusion and selective fire control (permitting only small fires to burn). These hypothetical 

management policies generally reduced the richness and patchiness of the landscape compared to the natural 

fire regime, but they increased the evenness and reduced the magnitude of periodic fluctuations in overall 

landscape diversity. At times, overall landscape diversity may actually be higher with a fire control policy than 

with a natural fire regime. At other times, fire significantly increases landscape diversity, as would be expected. 


Volume 52 

Issue 2 

Pages 199–221 



DOI 10.2307/1942611 

ISSN 0012-9615 


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Extra Keywords: fire; fuels; landscape diversity; lodgepole pine; mathematical model; mountain pine beetle; steady 

state; subalpine forest; succession; Yellowstone National Park. 



Fire and sustainability: Considerations for California’s altered future climate 




Abstract In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, actions to achieve a sustainable coexistence with wildfire 

need to be taken now. In this paper we suggest several important policy, planning, and management changes that 

should be made, regardless of the many uncertainties in predicting future fire regimes. Similar to how other 

natural hazards are addressed, a risk-based framework for fire-related decisions is crucial. Reintroduction of fire 

to fire-prone ecosystems, careful use of fire surrogates, and creation of new and flexible policies will be needed 

for successful ecosystem management. Growing incompatibilities between urban development and wildfire also 

require a serious reevaluation of urban planning and building in fire-prone locations to reach a sustainable 

coexistence with fire. Our future cities and communities must be less susceptible to wildfire damage, and the 

ecosystems upon which we depend must be made more resilient to further disruptions in fire regimes. 


Volume 87 

Issue Supplement 1 

Pages 265-271 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9361-1 


Short Title Fire and sustainability 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/5411702235mx5432/ 



Fire and the Australian flora: A review 


Author A. Malcolm Gill 

Abstract Summary: Fire is a natural environmental variable over most of Australia. It is a unique environmental variable 

in that it: tends to be self propagating; occurs for extremely limited periods in anyone locality; may have 

devastating effects; occurs over a wide range of environments and plant communities. In many ecosystems fire 

is a normal environmental variable. Its immediate effects on vegetation depend on fire intensity but longer-term 

effects depend also on fire frequency and season of occurrence. Using these three variables, various fire regimes 

may be defined. Species may be adapted to these fire regimes but not to fire per se. Interaction between fire and 

an adaptive trait may facilitate survival or reproduction of a species but this effect alone does not guarantee that 

the species is adapted to a certain fire regime - this depends on many characteristics of the life cycle. Much of 

the relevant Australian literature is concerned with adaptive traits while relatively little considers adaptations of 

species. A knowledge of species' adaptation is necessary if we are to predict species' behaviour under various 

natural or imposed fire regimes. 

Publication Australian Forestry 

Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages 4-25 


Journal Abbr Aust. For. 

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ISSN 0004-9158 

URL http://www.forestry.org.au/ifa/c/c2-ifa.asp 

Extra Keywords: fire; flora; effects. 



Fire and the development of oak forests: In eastern North America, oak distribution reflects a variety of 

ecological paths and disturbance conditions 





Volume 42 

Issue 5 

Pages 346–353 

Date May 1992 


ISSN 0006-3568 



Date Added Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:27:59 AM 


Fire and the dynamic relationship between Florida sandhill and sand pine scrub vegetation 


Author Ronald L. Myers 

Abstract Sandhill vegetation dominated by Pinus palustris, Pinus elliottii var. densa, Quercus laevis, and Aristida stricta, 

and sand pine scrub dominated by Pinus clausa, scrub oaks, and Caryafloridana form mutually exclusive, 

fire-dependent communities on Florida's sand ridges. Soil differences have long been attributed as causing this 

separation. Data from 1932 maps, 1929 photo plots, vegetation analyses, age structure of the pines, and fire scar 

dates indicate sandhills convert to xeric hardwood-mixed pine after approximately 50 years without fire, e.g., 

importance value of Carya floridana increased from 3.2 to 75.6; relative importance value of scrub species 

increased from 2.5 to 54 percent. This intermediate stage may develop into a xeric hardwood forest without fire, 

and with fire it may be replaced by sand pine scrub. Apparently different fire regimes not soil differences 

separate the two vegetation types. Historic and prehistoric shifts in fire regimes may account for the 

distribution of the two types. 


Volume 112 

Issue 3 

Pages 241–252 

Date July-September 1985 


DOI 10.2307/2996539 

ISSN 0040-9618 


Extra Keywords: age structure; fire; fire history; Florida; pines; sandhill vegetation; sand pine scrub; succession. 



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Fire and the forest history of the North Cascade Range 


Author Les C. Cwynar 

Abstract Postglacial vegetation changes are often ascribed to the direct effects of climate change. I studied pollen, plant 

macrofossils, and sediment charcoal in order to determine the potential role of changes in the disturbance (fire) 

regime in the postglacial development of local vegetation at Kirk Lake in the foothills of the North Cascade 

Range in northwestern Washington. Five pollen assemblage zones are recognized: a Pinus--Populus zone >12 

000 BP, a Picea-Alnus sinuata zone from >12 000 to 11 030 BP, an Alnus rubra-Pteridium zone from 11 030 to 

6830 BP, a Cupressaceae zone beginning at 6830 BP, and a late Holocene Pinus-Alnus rubra zone from 2400 to 

900 BP. The first forests (>12 000 BP) were an open mixture of conifers and deciduous trees, chiefly Tsuga 

mertensiana, Abies, Pinus contorta, and Populus on a landscape subject to erosion. Just before 12 000 BP, the 

pioneer species Picea sitchensis, Alnus rubra, and A. sinuata became important constituents of the forest. 

Although pollen accumulation rates were high, the abundance of Alnus sinuata indicates an open-canopy forest. 

Beginning ≈11 200 BP, climatic warming initiated major changes in forest composition and the fire regime. 

Tsuga heterophylla migrated into the region, rapidly expanded, then declined shortly thereafter, while 

Pseudotsuga menziesii, Alnus rubra, and Pteridium expanded, and Pinus contorta, Picea sitchensis, Populus, and 

Alnus sinuata declined. The abundance of Pseudotsuga, Alnus rubra, and pteridium between 11 030 and 6830 

BP corresponds with increased influxes of charcoal into the sediment; this zone is interpreted as a closed forest 

with a relatively high fire frequency and composed of a mosaic of postfire successional communities in which 

fire-adapted Pseudotsuga and Alnus rubra predominated over fire-sensitive Tsuga heterophylla. Pinus monticola 

became locally important ≈ 8000 BP. Between 6800 and 6400 BP Thuja plicata arrived, Tsuga heterophylla 

expanded, and Alnus rubra, Pseudotsuga and Pteridium declined. These changes are accompanied by a reduced 

fire frequency, inferred from lower charcoal accumulation rates, and they indicate a shift to wet-temperate 

climate similar to today's. The late Holocene fossil record shows the development of the adjacent peatland, 

which Pinus contorta eventually invaded. 


Volume 68 

Issue 4 

Pages 791-802 



DOI 10.2307/1938350 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Cascade Range; charcoal; fire; forest history; paleoecology; palynology; plant macrofossils; 

Quaternary studies. 



Fire and the Miocene expansion of C₄ grasslands 



Author Philip W. Rundel 

Abstract C₄ photosynthesis had a mid-Tertiary origin that was tied to declining atmospheric CO₂, but CO₄-dominated 

grasslands did not appear until late Tertiary. According to the ‘CO₂-threshold’ model, these C₄ grasslands owe 

their origin to a further late Miocene decline in CO₂ that gave C₄ grasses a photosynthetic advantage. This 

model is most appropriate for explaining replacement of C₃ grasslands by C₄ grasslands, however, fossil 

evidence shows C₄ grasslands replaced woodlands. An additional weakness in the threshold model is that recent 

estimates do not support a late Miocene drop in ρCO₂. We hypothesize that late Miocene climate changes 

created a fire climate capable of replacing woodlands with C₄ grasslands. Critical elements were seasonality that 

sustained high biomass production part of year, followed by a dry season that greatly reduced fuel moisture, 

coupled with a monsoon climate that generated abundant lightning-igniting fires. As woodlands became more 

open from burning, the high light conditions favoured C₄ grasses over C₃ grasses, and in a feedback process, the 

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elevated productivity of C₄ grasses increased highly combustible fuel loads that further increased fire activity. 

This hypothesis is supported by paleosol data that indicate the late Miocene expansion of C₄ grasslands was the 

result of grassland expansion into more mesic environments and by charcoal sediment profiles that parallel the 

late Miocene expansion of C₄ grasslands. Many contemporary C₄ grasslands are fire dependent and are invaded 

by woodlands upon cessation of burning. Thus, we maintain that the factors driving the late Miocene expansion 

of C₄ were the same as those responsible for maintenance of C₄ grasslands today. 

Publication Ecology Letters 

Volume 8 

Issue 7 

Pages 683-690 


Journal Abbr Ecol. Lett. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00767.x 

ISSN 1461-023X 


Extra Keywords: grasslands; Miocene; paleosols; photosynthesis; savannas; woodlands. 



Fire and the origin of Table Mountain pine–pitch pine communities in the southern Appalachian 

Mountains, USA 



Author Thomas A. Waldrop 

Abstract The prevalence of stand-replacing fire in the formation of Table Mountain pine – pitch pine (Pinus pungens 

Lamb. and Pinus rigida Mill., respectively) communities was investigated with dendrochronological techniques. 

Nine stands in Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee were analyzed for age structure, species recruitment 

trends, and radial growth patterns to determine whether they had originated as a result of stand-replacing fires. 

The oldest pines date from the late 1700s or early 1800s. Continuous or frequent episodic pine regeneration 

from those times to the early to mid 1900s was evident at all sites. During the first half of the 20th century, all 

sites experienced large surges in pine regeneration. However, no clear evidence of stand-replacing wildfires 

could be definitively linked to these surges. Rather, the regeneration appeared to have been caused by 

noncatastrophic surface fires and canopy disturbances occurring together or by the cessation of a frequent fire 

regime. For the past 25–50 years, there has been little pine regeneration at any of the sites. Restoring the dual 

disturbance regime of periodic fires and canopy disturbances should help sustain Table Mountain pine – pitch 

pine communities in southern Appalachian Mountains landscapes. 


Volume 36 

Issue 3 

Pages 710–718 



DOI 10.1139/X05-281 

ISSN 1208-6037 




Fire and the prairie-forest mosaic of Devils Tower National Monument 


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Author R. F. Fisher 

Author Michael J. Jenkins 

Author William F. Fisher 

Abstract The pattern of vegetation types has changed markedly at Devils Tower in the past 100 years. Fire scars on 

ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) at the Monument indicate that there has been a marked change in fire 

frequency over this period. Changes in fire regime are clearly important in driving the changes in vegetation 

pattern. Studies of soil-borne opal phytoliths also indicate the presence of a stable ecotone in the past followed 

by a dynamic boundary in recent times. Changes in fire frequency from 1770-1900, a time when the Sioux were 

rapidly expanding into the Black Hills, indicates that native Americans may have dramatically affected the 

prairie-forest mosaic observed by early Europeans. 


Volume 117 

Issue 2 

Pages 250-257 



DOI 10.2307/2425966 

ISSN 0003-0031 




Fire and vegetation dynamics: Studies from the North American boreal forest 

Type Book 


Abstract Description: It is almost dogma that the boreal forest in North America is a fire-dependent forest, yet ecologists 

often do not consider in any technical detail how forest fires produce effects on individual plants and on plant 

populations. Consequently, the causal connection between the behaviour of fire and its ecological consequences 

is poorly understood. This book sets out to correct this deficiency by assembling the relevant studies of fire 

intensity, rate of spread, fuel consumption, fire frequency and fire weather in the North American boreal forest. 

The central thesis is that the North American boreal forest has at least four wildfire characteristics that are 

important in understanding the dynamics of its plant populations: the large size of the burns with respect to 

dispersal distances, the short recurrence time of fire with respect to tree lifespans, the high mortality of plants 

due to the predominance of crown fires, and a good germination surface due to the large area of the forest floor 

which is covered by ash. 

Series Cambridge Studies in Ecology 




Date 1996 


ISBN 9780521349437, 9780511623516, doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511623516 

Short Title Fire and vegetation dynamics 

URL http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf? 

bid=CBO9780511623516 

Extra Subjects: life sciences; natural resource management; agriculture; horticulture and forestry; ecology and 

conservation. (online e-book available) 



Fire and vegetation history from the coastal rain forest of the western Oregon Coast Range 

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Abstract High-resolution charcoal and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct a 4600-yr-long history of fire and 

vegetation near Taylor Lake in the wettest forests of coastal Oregon. Today, fires in these forests are rare 

because the season of ignition does not coincide with months of dry fuels. From ca. 4600 to 2700 cal yr B.P. fire 

episodes occurred at intervals of 140±30 yr while forest vegetation was dominated by disturbance-adapted taxa 

such as Alnus rubra. From ca. 2700 cal yr B.P. to the present, fire episodes have become less common, 

occurring at intervals of 240±30 yr, and fire-sensitive forest taxa, such as Tsuga heterophylla and Picea 

sitchensis, have become more prominent. Fire occurrence during the mid-Holocene was similar to that of the 

more xeric forests in the eastern Coast Range and suggests that summer drought was widespread. After ca. 2700 

cal yr B.P., a decrease in fire episode frequency suggests that cooler conditions and possibly increased summer 

fog allowed the establishment of present-day Picea sitchensis forests within the watershed. These results 

provide evidence that fire has been an important disturbance agent in the Coast Range of Oregon, and variations 

in fire frequency and climate have led to the establishment of present-day forests. 


Volume 58 

Issue 3 

Pages 215-225 



DOI 10.1006/qres.2002.2378 

ISSN 0033-5894 


Extra Keywords: Pacific Northwest; fire history; pollen records; millennial-scale climate change; paleoecology. 



Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: The ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems 


Author William J. Bond 


Abstract It is difficult to find references to fire in general textbooks on ecology, conservation biology or biogeography, in 

spite of the fact that large parts of the world burn on a regular basis, and that there is a considerable literature on 

the ecology of fire and its use for managing ecosystems. Fire has been burning ecosystems for hundreds of 

millions of years, helping to shape global biome distribution and to maintain the structure and function of 

fire-prone communities. Fire is also a significant evolutionary force, and is one of the first tools that humans 

used to re-shape their world. Here, we review the recent literature, drawing parallels between fire and 

herbivores as alternative consumers of vegetation. We point to the common questions, and some surprisingly 

different answers, that emerge from viewing fire as a globally significant consumer that is analogous to 

herbivory. 

Publication Trends in Ecology and Evolution 

Volume 20 

Issue 7 

Pages 387-394 


Journal Abbr Trends Ecol. Evol. 

DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2005.04.025 

ISSN 0169-5347 

Short Title Fire as a global ‘herbivore’ 




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Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models 


Author Vivek K. Arora 

Author George J. Boer 

Abstract Fire affects ecosystems by altering both their structure and the cycling of carbon and nutrients. The emissions 

from fires represent an important biogeochemical pathway by which the biosphere affects climate. For climate 

change studies it is important to model fire as a mechanistic climate-dependent process in dynamic global 

vegetation models (DGVMs) and the terrestrial ecosystem components of climate models. We expand on those 

current approaches which neglect disturbance by fire, which use constant specified loss rates, or which depend 

on simple empirical relationships, and develop a process-based fire parameterization for use in the terrestrial 

ecosystem components of climate and Earth system models. The approach is straightforward and general 

enough to apply globally and for current and future climates. All three aspects of the fire triangle, fuel 

availability, the readiness of fuel to burn depending on conditions, and the presence of an ignition source, are 

taken into account. The approach also represents some anthropogenic effects on natural fire regimes, albeit in a 

simple manner. The fire parameterization is incorporated in the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) 

which simulates net primary productivity, leaf area index, and vegetation biomass. The fire parameterization 

generates burned area, alters vegetation biomass, and generates CO₂ emissions. The parameterization is tested 

by comparing simulated fire return intervals and CO₂ emissions with observation-based estimates for tropical 

savanna, tropical humid forests, mediterranean, and boreal forest locations. 


Volume 110 

Issue G2 

Pages G02008 (20 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2005JG000042 

ISSN 0148-0227 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2005JG000042.shtml 

Extra Keywords: fire; dynamic vegetation model; ecosystem models. 



Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance 


Author Ben Bond-Lamberty 

Author Scott D. Peckham 

Author Douglas E. Ahl 

Author Stith T. Gower 

Abstract Changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and fire regimes have been occurring for decades 

in the global boreal forest with future climate change likely to increase fire frequency—the primary disturbance 

agent in most boreal forests. Previous attempts to assess quantitatively the effect of changing environmental 

conditions on the net boreal forest carbon balance have not taken into account the competition between 

different vegetation types on a large scale. Here we use a process model with three competing vascular and 

non-vascular vegetation types to examine the effects of climate, carbon dioxide concentrations and fire 

disturbance on net biome production, net primary production and vegetation dominance in 100 Mha of 

Canadian boreal forest. We find that the carbon balance of this region was driven by changes in fire disturbance 

from 1948 to 2005. Climate changes affected the variability, but not the mean, of the landscape carbon balance, 

with precipitation exerting a more significant effect than temperature. We show that more frequent and larger 

fires in the late twentieth century resulted in deciduous trees and mosses increasing production at the expense of 

coniferous trees. Our model did not however exhibit the increases in total forest net primary production that 

have been inferred from satellite data. We find that poor soil drainage decreased the variability of the landscape 

carbon balance, which suggests that increased climate and hydrological changes have the potential to affect 

disproportionately the carbon dynamics of these areas. Overall, we conclude that direct ecophysiological 

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changes resulting from global climate change have not yet been felt in this large boreal region. Variations in the 

landscape carbon balance and vegetation dominance have so far been driven largely by increases in fire 

frequency. 


Volume 450 

Issue 7166 

Pages 89–92 



DOI 10.1038/nature06272 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v450/n7166/full/nature06272.html 



Fire climatology in the western United States: Introduction to special issue 




Abstract Advances in fire climatology have derived from recent studies of modern and paleoecological records. We 

convened a series of workshops and a conference session to report and review regional-scale findings, and these 

meetings led to the 10 papers in this special issue. Two papers focus on fire and climate patterns in the modern 

era using documentary records, four papers utilise tree rings to evaluate recent centuries of change, and four 

papers evaluate charcoal and pollen in lake, bog, and alluvial sediments over the Holocene. Here we summarise 

some of the key findings from these papers in the context of other recent fire climatology literature. These 

studies illustrate the value of long-term perspectives and spatial networks of fire and climate data in discovering 

the patterns and modes of past fire regime and climate variations. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 1–7 



DOI 10.1071/WF08016 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Fire climatology in the western United States 




Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model 


Author Silvia Kloster 

Author Natalie M. Mahowald 


Author Peter E. Thornton 

Author Forrest M. Hoffman 

Author Samuel Levis 

Author Peter J. Lawrence 

Author Johannes J. Feddema 

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Author Keith W. Oleson 

Author David M. Lawrence 

Abstract Fire is an integral Earth System process that interacts with climate in multiple ways. Here we assessed the 

parametrization of fires in the Community Land Model (CLM-CN) and improved the ability of the model to 

reproduce contemporary global patterns of burned areas and fire emissions. In addition to wildfires we extended 

CLMCN to account for fires related to deforestation. We compared contemporary fire carbon emissions 

predicted by the model to satellite-based estimates in terms of magnitude and spatial extent as well as 

interannual and seasonal variability. Long-term trends during the 20th century were compared with historical 

estimates. Overall we found the best agreement between simulation and observations for the fire 

parametrization based on the work by Arora and Boer (2005). We obtained substantial improvement when we 

explicitly considered human caused ignition and fire suppression as a function of population density. Simulated 

fire carbon emissions ranged between 2.0 and 2.4 Pg C/year for the period 1997–2004. Regionally the 

simulations had a low bias over Africa and a high bias over South America when compared to satellite-based 

products. The net terrestrial carbon source due to land use change for the 1990s was 1.2 Pg C/year with 11% 

stemming from deforestation fires. During 2000–2004 this flux decreased to 0.85 Pg C/year with a similar 

relative contribution from deforestation fires. Between 1900 and 1960 we predicted a slight downward trend in 

global fire emissions caused by reduced fuels as a consequence of wood harvesting and also by increases in fire 

suppression. The model predicted an upward trend during the last three decades of the 20th century as a result 

of climate variations and large burning events associated with ENSO-induced drought conditions. 

Publication Biogeosciences 

Volume 7 

Issue 6 

Pages 1877-1902 


Journal Abbr Biogeosciences 

DOI 10.5194/bg-7-1877-2010 

ISSN 1726-4189 

URL http://www.biogeosciences.net/7/1877/2010/ 



Fire ecology (Chapter 5) 


Author Stephen J. Pyne 

Author Patricia L. Andrews 

Author Richard D. Laven 


Book Title Introduction to wildland fire 



Publisher John Wiley & Sons Inc. 


Pages 171-212 

ISBN 0471549134, 9780471549130 

URL http://www.nrem.iastate.edu/class/nrem390.htm 



Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests 

Type Book 


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Date 1993 


ISBN 1559632291, 9781559632300 


id=52x1XvcUA0AC&… 

Extra Island Press: http://islandpress.org/bookstore/details1a0d.html?prod_id=309 



Fire ecology, United States and southern Canada 

Type Book 

Author Henry A. Wright 

Author Arthur W. Bailey 


Edition 2nd edtion 

Place Indianapolis, IN 

Publisher John Wiley & Sons Inc 

Date 1982 


ISBN 0471090336, 9780471090335 

URL http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471090336.html 

Extra Wiley Classics in Ecology and Environmental Science 



Notes: 

Contents: 

1. Introduction 

2. Temperature and Heat Effects. 

3. Soil and Water Properties. 

4. Wildlife. 

5. Grasslands. 

6. Semidesert Grass-Shrub. 

7. Sagebrush-Grass. 

8. Chaparral and Oakbrush. 

9. Pinyon-Juniper. 

10. Ponderosa Pine. 

11. Douglas Fir and Associated Communities. 

12. Spruce-Fir. 

13. Red and White Pine. 

14. Coastal Redwood and Giant Sequoia. 

15. Southeastern Forests. 

16. Prescribed Burning. 

Fire effects on California chaparral systems: An overview 

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Author Susan C. Barro 


Abstract Chaparral is a shrubby, sclerophyllous vegetation type that is common in middle elevations throughout much of 

California. It occupies 3.4 Mha throughout the state in some of the steepest terrain and adjacent to some of the 

most populated urban areas. Although chaparral has little direct commodity value, it does have great value in 

slope stabilization, watershed cover, wildlife habitat, and nutrient cycling. Combined effects of the summer-dry 

climate and the high flammability of chaparral vegetation render it extremely susceptible to periodic crown 

fires. Fires in the urban interface not only impact the chaparral ecosystem, but may burn homes, and also can 

effect regional air and water quality. Wildfires remove plant crown cover and may alter vegetation composition. 

Many chaparral plant species are well adapted to regenerate after fire, either through the ability to sprout 

vegetatively, or through fire-related cues that enhance germination. Fire also alters animal habitat and affects 

species composition and population levels. Perhaps most dramatic are the postfire effects on water and sediment 

movement. Flooding and debris flows which are common in years after fires may cause substantial loss of soil 

and nutrients and major damage to homes and other structures. 

Publication Environment International 

Volume 17 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 135-149 

Date 1991 

Journal Abbr Environ. Int. 

DOI 10.1016/0160-4120(91)90096-9 

ISSN 0160-4120 

Short Title Fire effects on California chaparral systems 




Fire frequency and community heterogeneity in tallgrass prairie vegetation 


Author Scott L. Collins 

Abstract Few studies have directly addressed the effects of disturbance on spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Spatial 

heterogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity is the degree of dissimilarity in species composition from one point to 

another into a community, whereas temporal heterogeneity is compositional change within a site over time. The 

purposes of this study were to determine (1) if a quadratic relationship exists between within-site heterogeneity 

and disturbance frequency as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH), (2) if disturbed and 

undisturbed sites have similar heterogeneity as implied by the disturbance heterogeneity hypothesis (DHM), and 

whether or not these results differed with scale, and (3) if there is a relationship between spatial and temporal 

heterogeneity as implied by the DHM. Analyses were based on plant species composition data collected over 9 

yr in quadrats permanently located in experimental management units subjected to differ burning frequencies at 

Konza Prairie Research Natural Area, Kansas, USA. The relationship between disturbance frequency and 

within-site heterogeneity was opposite that predicted by the IDH. Heterogeneity was lowest at intermediate 

disturbance frequencies. Heterogeneity in annually burned prairie was lower than in unburned prairie and 

prairies burned once every 4 yr in contrast to predictions of the DHM. However, this relationship did not hold at 

larger spatial scales. There was a positive relationship between within-site spatial and temporal heterogeneity on 

annual burned sites, sites burned once every 4 yr, and nearly so on sites burned every other year. Within-site 

heterogeneity was negatively correlated with cover of Andropogon gerardii, and positively correlated with total 

richness and species diversity. Studies of variation, in addition to averages, will increase our ability to predict 

patterns of species distribution and abundance within and between communities in response to disturbance. 


Volume 73 

Issue 6 

Pages 2001–2006 



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DOI 10.2307/1941450 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Andropogon gerardii; fire; grassland vegetation; intermediate disturbance hypothesis; Konza Prairie; 

spatial heterogeneity; species density; species diversity. 



Fire frequency and subalpine forest succession along a topographic gradient in Wyoming 



Author Dennis H. Knight 

Abstract Differences in fire frequency and the rate of secondary succession following fire have had a major effect on the 

present composition of forest vegetation in a 4500-ha undisturbed watershed in the subalpine zone of the 

Medicine Bow Mountains, southeastern Wyoming. USA. Periodic fire coupled with slow secondary succession 

has perpetuated lodgepole pine forest on the upland, while mature Engelmann spruce-subalpine fire forests have 

developed in sheltered ravines and valley bottoms where fire is less frequent and succession following fire is 

more rapid and/or more direct. A graphic model is presented showing the relationship between topographic 

position, fire-free interval, and the occurrence of mature forests dominated by spruce and fire. 


Volume 62 

Issue 2 

Pages 319–326 



DOI 10.2307/1936706 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Abies lasiocarpa; dendrochronology; fire; Medicine Bow Mountains; Picea engelmannii; Rocky 

Mountains; Pinus contorta; succession; Wyoming. 



Fire frequency and the Pine Barrens of New Jersey 


Author Richard T. T. Forman 

Author Ralph E. Boerner 

Abstract State fire records and literature citations were examined to estimate both regional fire frequency and point fire 

frequency. The number of annual wild-fires in the 550,000 hectare Pine Barrens has remained at approximately 

1100 since 1940 when fire control became effective. The total area burned annually dropped sharply from about 

22,000 ha during 1906-1939 to 8,000 ha in the past four decades. Extensive wildfires of 8,000-16,000 ha each 

are common. Since 1838, about every two decades on the average, 10% or more of the predominant pine and 

oak forest burns in a single year (50,000 ha). An average point in the pine and oak forest burns currently at 

about 65 year intervals, compared with 20 year intervals earlier this century. The number of wildfires in the 

region correlates linearly with the number of dry months in a year. However, the area burned annually is 

constant with up to four dry months during the January-to-September period; both average and variability of 

area burned increases with five or more dry months. The results suggest the upland Pine Barrens are a mosaic of 

fire-caused patches at two levels of scale: a fine-grained scale of small (averaging 6 ha) young patches imprinted 

on a coarse-grained scale of large (several tens of ha), variable-sized patches more than four decades old. The 

drop in point fire frequency favors (a) non fire-adapted populations, (b) hardwoods swamp replacing cedar 

swamp, and (c) loss of the coarsegrained landscape mosaic. 


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Volume 108 

Issue 1 

Pages 34-50 

Date January - March 1981 


DOI 10.2307/2484334 

ISSN 0040-9618 


Extra Keywords: Pine Barrens; fire; pine and oak forest; landscape; scale. 



Fire frequency and vegetation dynamics for the south-central boreal forest of Québec, Canada 


Author Daniel Lesieur 


Author Yves Prairie 

Abstract Fire history and forest dynamics were reconstructed for a 3800-km² territory located in the south-central boreal 

forest of Québec. Fire cycle was characterized using a random sampling strategy combined with archival data 

on fires that had occurred since 1923 on private land owned by Smurfit-Stone. Bioclimatic subdomain, land use, 

surficial deposit, and mean distance from a firebreak did not affect the fire cycle. Fire cycles have been longer 

since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850). Warming after the Little Ice Age seems to have triggered a change 

in fire frequency. Forest dynamics were characterized by transition matrices for changes in dominant canopy 

composition from 344 permanent sampling plots. These permanent plots were sampled approximately every 15 

years over the preceding 40 years. We observed two distinct patterns of replacement: (i) deciduous and mixed 

stands were replaced by balsam fir (Abies balsamifera (L.) Mill.) (and, to a lesser extent, by black spruce (Picea 

mariana (Mill.) BSP)) and (ii) jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) was replaced by black spruce. Analyses 

confirm that species replacement occurs in the eastern boreal forest of Canada when the fire-return interval is 

long enough and that the substrate plays an important role along with other disturbances, such as insect 

outbreaks. Our results also suggest that the proportion of old-growth forests (>100 years old) in the landscape 

should increase as a result of the lengthening of the fire cycle. More and more stands are likely to experience 

species replacement. From the standpoint of sustainable forest management, this perspective calls into question 

the widespread use of clear-cutting in the boreal forest. Regional context must be taken into account in forest 

management if the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem integrity are serious objectives. Economically 

and ecologically sound silvicultural scenarios that emulate natural processes are discussed. 


Volume 32 

Issue 11 

Pages 1996–2009 



DOI 10.1139/x02-113 

ISSN 1208-6037 




Fire frequency effects on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris P. Miller) vegetation in South Carolina and 

northeast Florida, USA 



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Author Dale D. Wade 

Abstract Southeastern United States habitats dominated by longleaf pine (Pinus palustris P. Miller) have declined 

precipitously in area and extent. Conservation of diverse ground-layer vegetation in these endangered habitats 

depends on prescribed fire. While the need for prescribed fire is now generally accepted, there is disagreement 

concerning the most appropriate fire regime. One of the more important variables is frequency of fire. Several 

hypothetical relationships between fire frequency and vascular plant richness and composition are suggested by 

the existing literature. Results of two long-term prescribed fire studies support the hypothesis that burning as 

frequently as fuels permit is optimal for maintaining the largest number of native ground-layer plant species. 

However, fire frequency effects on species composition differed between the two studies. Increasing fire 

frequency in South Carolina Ultisol flatwoods and wet savannas was associated with a distinct shift from woody 

to herbaceous-dominated communities. Herbs, particularly bunchgrasses and perennial forbs, dominated annualand 

biennial-burn treatment plots, whereas triennial- and quadrennial-burn plots were shrub-dominated. In 

contrast, annual and biennial fires did not produce herbaceous dominated ground-layer vegetation in North 

Florida Spodosol flatwoods. Reduced dominance of saw palmetto and somewhat increased importance of forbs 

and grasses, particularly rhizomatous grasses, distinguished the annually burned plots. However, biennial- and 

quadrennial-burn plots were similar in composition and did not differ significantly in species richness at the 

largest spatial scale. 


Volume 23 

Issue 1 

Pages 22-37 



ISSN 0885-8608 


Archive http://www.naturalarea.org/journal.asp 

Extra Index terms: fire frequency; fire regime; longleaf pine; Pinus palustris; prescribed burning. 



Fire frequency on an oak-hickory ridgetop in the Missouri Ozarks 


Author Bruce E. Cutter 


Abstract Wedges taken from 24 post oaks (Quercus stellata Wang.) growing on a ridge in an oak-hickory stand were used 

to reconstruct the fire history in the Houston Ranger District in Missouri's Mark Twain National Forest. A 

chronology was constructed dating from 1734 to 1991. Fire frequency was greatest between 1740 and 1850 

with a mean return interval of 2.8 yr. After 1850, the fire return interval increased to 24 yr. This change in fire 

return regimes is coincident with settlement of the area by Anglo-Americans. 


Volume 132 

Issue 2 

Pages 393–398 



ISSN 0003-0031 




Fire frrequency in the interior Columbia River basin: Building regional models from fire history data 

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Abstract Fire frequency affects vegetation composition and successional pathways; thus it is essential to understand fire 

regimes in order to manage natural resources at broad spatial scales. Fire history data are lacking for many 

regions for which fire management decisions are being made, so models are needed to estimate past fire 

frequency where local data are not yet available. We developed multiple regression models and tree-based 

(classification and regression tree, or CART) models to predict fire return intervals across the interior Columbia 

River basin at 1-km resolution, using georeferenced fire history, potential vegetation, cover type, and 

precipitation databases. The models combined semiqualitative methods and rigorous statistics. The fire history 

data are of uneven quality; some estimates are based on only one tree, and many are not cross-dated. Therefore, 

we weighted the models based on data quality and performed a sensitivity analysis of the effects on the models 

of estimation errors that are due to lack of cross-dating. The regression models predict fire return intervals from 

1 to 375 yr for forested areas, whereas the tree-based models predict a range of 8 to 150 yr. Both types of 

models predict latitudinal and elevational gradients of increasing fire return intervals. Examination of 

regional-scale output suggests that, although the tree-based models explain more of the variation in the original 

data, the regression models are less likely to produce extrapolation errors. Thus, the models serve 

complementary purposes in elucidating the relationships among fire frequency, the predictor variables, and 

spatial scale. The models can provide local managers with quantitative information and provide data to initialize 

coarse-scale fire-effects models, although predictions for individual sites should be treated with caution because 

of the varying quality and uneven spatial coverage of the fire history database. The models also demonstrate the 

integration of qualitative and quantitative methods when requisite data for fully quantitative models are 

unavailable. They can be tested by comparing new, independent fire history reconstructions against their 

predictions and can be continually updated, as better fire history data become available. 


Volume 10 

Issue 5 

Pages 1497–1516 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[1497:FFITIC]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

Short Title Fire Frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin 


Extra Keywords: coarse scale; Columbia River Basin; cover types; fire effects; fire frequency; fire history; fire return 

interval; potential vegetation; semiqualitative methods; tree-based model. 



Fire history along elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada, California 



Author Christopher H. Baisan 

Author Kiyomi Morino 

Author Anthony C. Caprio 

Abstract Preface: This report documents research completed by investigators at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research 

with support from the Sierra Nevada Global Change research program for the period 1991 to 1997. The body of 

this report is prepared as a draft manuscript intended for revision and submission to a peer reviewed journal 

(probably Ecology or Ecological Monographs). This paper describes the completed work on the reconstruction 

of fire histories along transects in the Sierra Nevada, an evaluation of fire regime patterns related to elevation, 

and an investigation of interannual climate-fire patterns. Appendices list and illustrate additional details of the 

fire history data, and ongoing research using these data. A computer disk with all of the related data files is also 

delivered with this report. Since this report is considered a draft and is subject to revision following comments 

from reviewers and additional work by the authors, we ask that it not be distributed beyond the National Parks 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

(Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Yosemite). 

Report Type Final Report To Sierra Nevada Global Change Research Program 

Place Tucson, AZ: Three Rivers, CA 

Institution Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona: Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, 

National Park Service 


Pages 40 p. 

URL http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~tswetnam/tws-pdf/SierraNevadaTransects-FinalReport1998.pdf 



Swetnam, T. W., C. H. Baisan, K. Morino, and A. Caprio. 1998. Fire history along elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada, 

California. Final report. Sierra Nevada Global Change Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division, 

Sequoia, Kings Canyon Field 

Station, Three Rivers, California, USA. 

Fire history along environmental gradients in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico: Influences of 

local patterns and regional processes 



Author Margot W. Kaye 

Author Laurie S. Huckaby 


Abstract Patterning in fire regimes occurs at multiple spatiotemporal scales owing to differences in scaling of local and 

regional influences. Local fire occurrence and behavior may be controlled largely by site factors, while regional 

climate and changes in human land use can synchronize fire timing across large areas. We examined historical 

patterns in fires during the past five centuries across gradients in forest types and physiography and in relation 

to regional climate variability and land use change in the Sacramento Mountains in southern New Mexico. 

Forest stand-level chronologies of fires were reconstructed for 19 pinyon-juniper, ponderosa pine, and mixedconifer 

stands using fire-scar records in crossdated tree-ring series. The fire history documents both local and 

regional factors effected fire occurrences in stands. Lower-elevation stands recorded more frequent fire than 

higher-elevation stands, although there were not significant differences between means of fire frequencies from 

clusters of ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer stands. Mean fire intervals ranged from approximately 3 to 11 

years in ponderosa pine sites to 4 to 14 years in mixed-conifer sites. Sites on the steeper west side of the range, 

where fire spread more readily between forest types, recorded significantly more frequent fire than sites on the 

more physiographically heterogeneous east side. Fires were also synchronized by regional factors. Fire 

occurrences and fire-free years are related to variability in both annual Palmer Drought Severity Indices and El 

Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Fire regimes in the stands were also profoundly effected by changes in human 

land use patterns, with fire cessation in all sites following intensive Euro-American settlement beginning in the 

1880s. 

Publication Ecoscience 

Volume 8 

Issue 1 

Pages 115–126 

Date 2001 

Journal Abbr Ecoscience 

ISSN 1195-6860 

Short Title Fire history along environmental gradients in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico 

URL http://www.ecoscience.ulaval.ca/catalogue/E_detail.php? 

id=182&retour=29 

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Extra Keywords : dendroecology; crossdating; fire regimes; fire history; fire scars; spatiotemporal scales; ponderosa 

pine; mixed-conifer; pinyon-juniper; New Mexico. 



Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves 



Abstract Fire scars in giant sequoia [Sequoiadendron giganteum (Lindley) Buchholz] were used to reconstruct the spatial 

and temporal pattern of surface fires that burned episodically through five groves during the past 2000 years. 

Comparisons with independent dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that regionally synchronous fire 

occurrence was inversely related to yearly fluctuations in preCipitation and directly related to decadalto-centennial 

variations in temperature. Frequent small fires occurred during a warm period from about A.D. 

1000 to 1300, and less frequent but more widespread fires occurred during cooler periods from about A.D. 500 

to 1000 and after A.D. 1300. Regionally synchronous fire histories demonstrate the importance of climate in 

maintaining nonequilibrium conditions. 


Volume 262 

Issue 5135 

Pages 885-889 



DOI 10.1126/science.262.5135.885 





Fire history and climatic patterns in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of the Jemez Mountains, 

northern New Mexico 


Author Ramzi Touchan 



Abstract We reconstructed fire history in ponderosa pine and mixedconifer forests across the Jemez Mountains in 

northern New Mexico. We collected fire-scarred samples from ten ponderosa pine areas, and three mesic 

mixed-conifer areas. Prior to 1900, ponderosa pine forests were characterized by high frequency, low intensity 

surface fire regimes. The mixed-conifer stands sustained somewhat less frequent surface fires, along with patchy 

crown fires. We also examined the associations between past fires and winter-spring precipitation. In both 

ponderosa pine and mixedconifer forests, precipitation was significantly reduced in the winter-spring period 

immediately prior to fire occurrence. In addition, winter-spring precipitation during the second year preceding 

major fire years in the ponderosa pine forest was significantly increased. The results of this study provide 

baseline knowledge concerning the ecological role of fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. This 

information is vital to support ongoing ecosystem management efforts in the Jemez Mountains. 

Book Title Fire effects in southwestern forests: Proceedings of the second La Mesa Fire symposium 

Series General Technical Report 

Series Number RM-GTR-286 


Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 


Pages 33–46 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

URL http://www.fort.usgs.gov/Products/Publications/pub_abstract.asp? 

PubID=3677 

Archive http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/38455 



Touchan, R., C.D. Allen, and T.W. Swetnam. 1996. Fire history and climatic patterns in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of 

the Jemez Mountains, Northern New Mexico. In: C.D. Allen (ed.). Fire effects in southwestern forests: proceedings of the second La 

Mesa Fire symposium; 1994 March 29-31, Los Alamos, NM. RM-GTR-286. Fort Collins, CO: USDA-Rocky Mountain Forest and 

Range Experiment Station. p. 33-46. 

Fire history and composition of the subalpine forest of western Colorado during the Holocene 


Author Patricia L. Fall 

Abstract Pollen and plant macrofossils from the Keystone Ironbog are used to document changes in species composition 

and the dynamics of the subalpine forest in western Colorado over the past 8000 years. Modern pollen spectra 

(particularly pollen influx), plant macrofossils, observations on modern species composition, and quantified 

densities and mean basal areas of forest trees are used to interpret the paleoecology of the forest. From 8000 to 

2600 years ago the fen was surrounded by a subalpine forest. However, unlike the modern subalpine forest 

where Abies lasiocarpa (Hooker) Nuttall is slightly more abundant than Picea engelmannii (Parry) Engelmann, 

these Holocene forests had a greater dominance of P. engelmannii, perhaps reflecting a summer wet climate like 

that of the modern southern Rocky Mountains and Colorado Plateau. Mesic conditions promoted a dense 

understory of Sphagnum moss, forbs, grasses, and shrubs which periodically burned with long (centennial) 

return-interval and stand-replacing fires. Populus tremuloides Michaux was the dominant successional forest 

tree 8000-6400 and 4400-2600 years ago, with Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa becoming reestablished 

within a couple hundred years. A subalpine meadow or grassland covered the fen for about 2000 years between 

6400 and 4400 years ago. Over the past 2600 years a stable, non-successional Pinus contorta (Douglas) spp 

latifolia (Engelmann) Critchfield forest grew around the fen. This forest stand had a relatively sparse understory. 

The persistence of Pinus contorta at this elevation (2920 m) probably reflects a shift to drier climatic conditions, 

perhaps coupled with a change in fire regime to relatively frequent (decadal) surface fires. Following fire Pinus 

contorta became reestablished at least within 200 years, but the subalpine Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa 

forest never regenerated at this elevation. 


Volume 24 

Issue 3 

Pages 309-325 

Date May 1997 


DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1997.00094.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 


Extra Keywords: Abies lasiocarpa; Picea engelmannii; Pinus contorta; subalpine forest dynamics; succession; 

paleoecology; pollen; plant macrofossils; Colorado; Rocky Mountains. 



Fire history and fire–climate relationships along a fire regime gradient in the Santa Fe Municipal 

Watershed, NM, USA 

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Author Ellis Q. Margolis 

Author Jeff Balmat 

Abstract The Santa Fe municipal watershed provides up to 40% of the city's water and is at high risk of a stand-replacing 

fire that could threaten the water resource and cause severe ecological damage. Restoration and crown fire 

hazard reduction in the ponderosa pine (PP) forest is in progress, but the historic role of crown fire in the mixedconifer/aspen 

(MC) and spruce-dominated forests is unknown but necessary to guide management here and in 

similar forests throughout the southwestern United States. The objective of our study was to use 

dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fire history and fire–climate relationships along an elevation, forest 

type, and fire regime gradient in the Santa Fe River watershed and provide historical ecological data to guide 

management. We combined systematic (gridded) sampling of forest age structure with targeted sampling of fire 

scars, tree-ring growth changes/injuries, and death dates to reconstruct fire occurrence and severity in the 7016 

ha study area (elevation 2330–3650 m). Fire scars from 141 trees (at 41 plots) and age structure of 438 trees 

(from 26 transects) were used to reconstruct 110 unique fire years (1296–2008). The majority (79.0%) of fires 

burned during the late spring/early summer. Widespread fires that scarred more than 25% of the recording trees 

were more frequent in PP (mean fire interval (MFI)25% = 20.8 years) compared to the MC forest (31.6 years). 

Only 24% of the fires in PP were recorded in the MC forest, but these accounted for a large percent of all MC 

fires (69%). Fire occurrence was associated with anomalously wet (and usually El Niño) years preceding 

anomalously dry (and usually La Niña) years both in PP and in the MC forest. Fire in the MC occurred during 

more severe drought (mean summer Palmer Drought Severity Index; PDSI = −2.59), compared to the adjacent 

PP forest (PDSI = −1.03). The last fire in the spruce forest (1685) was largely stand-replacing (1200 ha, 93% of 

sampled area), recorded as fire scars at 68% of plots throughout the MC and PP forests, and burned during a 

severe, regional drought (PDSI = −6.92). The drought–fire relationship reconstructed in all forest types suggests 

that if droughts become more frequent and severe, as predicted, the probability of large, severe fire occurrence 

will increase. 


Volume 258 

Issue 11 

Pages 2416-2430 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.019 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: fire history; gradient; mixed-severity fire; fire–climate; mixed-conifer; spruce; ponderosa pine. 



Fire history and landscape dynamics in a late-successional reserve, Klamath Mountains, California, 

USA 




Abstract The frequency, extent, and severity of fires strongly influence development patterns of forests dominated by 

Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest. Limited data on fire history and stand structure suggest that there is 

geographical variation in fire regimes and that this variation contributes to regional differences in stand and 

landscape structure. Managers need region-specific fire regime data to develop process-based management 

schemes to manage new late-successional reserves (LSR). This study quantifies fire regimes and stand structural 

patterns in a LSR in Douglas-fir-dominated forests in northern California. We analyzed tree species 

composition, structure (diameter, age), and fire scars from 75 plots in a 1570 ha area in the northern Klamath 

Mountains. Tree species composition varied with elevation and aspect, and median fire return intervals were 

similar (12–19 years) among species composition groups. However, median fire return intervals (FRI) were 

shorter on south- (8 years) and west-facing (13 years) slopes than on northern (15 years) or eastern (16.5 years) 

aspects. Fire return intervals also varied by historical period. Median FRIs were longer (21.8 years) during the 

suppression period (1905–1992) than in the settlement (1850–1904) (12.5 years) or presettlement (1627–1849) 

(14.5 years) period. The average burn area for a fire was 350 ha, and 16 fires larger than 500 ha burned between 

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1627 and 1992. Fire rotations varied by century from 15.5 to 25.5 years and were longest in the fire suppression 

period. Stand conditions were multi-aged, and Douglas-fir recruitment occurred after fire. Patterns of past fire 

severity, inferred from age-classes, indicate that upper slopes, ridgetops, and south- and west-facing slopes 

experienced more severe fires between 1850 and 1950 than lower slopes or east- and north-facing slopes. 

Implications are that lower slopes and north and east aspects are more likely than other topographic positions to 

sustain or promote long-term, late-successional conditions. Prescribed fire will likely be an integral component 

of management plans that successfully maintain natural processes and structures in newly established 

late-successional reserves in the Klamath Mountains. 


Volume 111 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 285–301 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(98)00342-9 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: age-classes; Douglas-fir; fire ecology; fire regimes; landscape ecology; stand structure. 



Fire history and pattern in a Cascade Range landscape 


Author Peter H. Morrison 


Abstract Fire history from years 1150 to 1985 was reconstructed by analyzing forest stands in two 1940-hectare areas in 

the central-western Cascade Range of Oregon. Serving as records for major fire episodes, these stands revealed 

a highly variable fire regime. The steeper, more dissected, lower elevation Cook-Quentin study area experienced 

more frequent fires (natural fire rotation = 95 years) that were commonly low to moderate in severity. The Deer 

study area, with its cooler, moister conditions and gentler topography, had a regime of less frequent (natural fire 

rotation = 149 years), predominantly stand-replacement fires. Fires created a complex mosaic of stands with 

variable date and severity of last burn. Fire-created forest patches originating in 1800-1900 are mostly less than 

10 hectares. Since 1900, very little of the study areas burned, possibly because of fire suppression. Old-growth 

forest conditions have persisted on some sites through numerous fires and over many centuries. 

Report Number GTR-PNW-254 



Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station 

Date May 1990 

Pages 77 p. 


Extra Keywords: history (fire); patch dynamics; old-growth forest; wildfire fire ecology. 



Fire history and the establishment of oaks and maples in second-growth forests 


Author Todd F. Hutchinson 

Author Robert P. Long 

Author Robert D. Ford 

Author Elaine Kennedy Sutherland 

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Abstract We used dendrochronology to examine the influence of past fires on oak and maple establishment. Six study 

units were located in southern Ohio, where organized fire control began in 1923. After stand thinning in 2000, 

we collected basal cross sections from cut stumps of oak (n = 137) and maple (n = 204). The fire history of each 

unit was developed from the oaks, and both oak and maple establishment were examined in relation to fire 

history. Twenty-six fires were documented from 1870 to1933; thereafter, only two fires were identified. Weibull 

median fire-return intervals ranged from 9.1 to 11.3years for the period ending 1935; mean fire occurrence 

probabilities (years/fires) for the same period ranged from 11.6 to 30.7years. Among units, stand initiation began 

ca. 1845 to 1900, and virtually no oak recruitment was recorded after 1925. Most maples established after the 

cessation of fires. In several units, the last significant fire was followed immediately by a large pulse of maple 

establishment and the cessation of oak recruitment, indicating a direct relationship between fire cessation and a 

shift from oak to maple establishment. 


Volume 38 

Issue 5 

Pages 1184–1198 

Date May 2008 


DOI 10.1139/X07-216 

ISSN 0045-5067 




Fire history and the global carbon budget: A 1 degree x 1 degree fire history reconstruction for the 20 th 

century 



Author Christopher B. Field 

Abstract A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and 

present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long-term indirect effects 

on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of 

internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two-step process to estimate 

these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire 

map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then 

worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when 

available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such 

as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences 

of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr⁻¹ burned 

(not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires 

in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr⁻¹ at the beginning of the century, mostly in the 

boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr⁻¹ in the 1960s as a 

consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, 

fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mhayr⁻¹. At the same time, burned areas increased 

exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr⁻¹ in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for 

expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests 

in the closing years of the 20th century. 


Volume 11 

Issue 3 

Pages 398–420 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00920.x 

ISSN 1365-2486 

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Short Title Fire history and the global carbon budget 


Extra Keywords: fire history; global change; global fires. 



Fire history and vegetation pattern in Mesa Verde national Park, Colorado, USA 


Author M. Lisa Floyd 


Author David D. Hanna 

Abstract Pinõn–juniper woodlands (Pinus edulis, Juniperus osteosperma, and J. scopulorum) and petran chaparral 

communities (Quercus gambelii, Amelanchier utahensis, Cercocarpus montanus, and other tall shrub species) 

cover much of the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States. Long-term fire history and successional 

dynamics are poorly understood in these vegetation types. Therefore, we lack a suitable historical context for 

interpreting the ecological significance of large fires and dramatic vegetative changes that have occurred 

recently in these ecosystems. For example, in Mesa Verde National Park, located in southwestern Colorado, 

four large intense fires in the last 50 years have threatened significant cultural and natural resources and have 

caused debate over whether Mesa Verde's fire regime has been significantly altered by human activities in the 

last century. In this study, we dated prehistoric fires in shrublands dominated by Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii) 

by aging stems that resprouted after fire. We mapped the spatial extent of all fires >10 ha that occurred during 

the last 150 years within a 6600-ha, shrub-dominated portion of Mesa Verde National Park. The turnover time 

(years required to burn an area equal to the entire shrubland zone) was 100 years under the “natural” fire 

regime of the mid- to late 19th century. Fire occurrence was reduced substantially during the first half of the 

20th century, but the current fire regime (since about 1950) appears to be similar to that of the 19th century 

—despite a continuing policy of total fire suppression. The “natural” fire turnover time in pinõn–juniper 

woodlands of Mesa Verde is about 400 years. A sharp boundary exists between pinõn–juniper woodlands at 

slightly lower elevations in the southern portion of the park and petran chaparral at slightly higher elevations in 

the north. This pattern is explained, in part, by more extensive fires in the northern area, which favor 

resprouting shrubs and eliminate the fire-sensitive pinõn and juniper. The less frequent occurrence of large fires, 

and resulting persistence of woodland in the southern portion of the park, may be due in part to natural barriers 

to fire spread (cliffs and sparsely vegetated slopes) to the south and west of the pinõn–juniper woodlands. Our 

findings demonstrate that fire frequency and extent in Mesa Verde during the last 50 years have not been greatly 

different from the “natural” fire regime of the late 1800s. Therefore, the recent large fires in the park, and the 

vegetative responses to those fires, appear to be within the historic range of variation for this ecosystem. 

Keywords: disturbance, fire history, fire interval, fire turnover time, Mesa Verde National Park, USA, petran 

chaparral, pinõn–juniper woodlands, Quercus gambelii, vegetation pattern 


Volume 10 

Issue 6 

Pages 1666–1680 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[1666:FHAVPI]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890 

/1051-0761%282000%29010%5B1666%3AFHAVPI%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire history; fire interval; fire turnover time; Mesa Verde National Park; USA; petran 

chaparral; pinõn–juniper woodlands; Quercus gambelii; vegetation pattern. 



Fire history and western juniper encroachment in sage-brush steppe 

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Author Richard F. Miller 

Author Jeffrey A. Rose 

Abstract The recent expansion of juniper into sagebrush steppe communities throughout the semiarid Intermountain West 

is most frequently attributed to the reduced role of fire, introduction and overstocking of domestic livestock in 

the late 1800s, and mild and wet climate conditions around the turn of the century. This hypothesis has, 

however, limited quantitative support. There are few studies of fire history in the sagebrush steppe and none 

that examine the chronosequence of changes in mean fire intervals, introduction of livestock, and coincident 

climatic conditions with the initiation of post-settlement juniper expansion. This study was undertaken to test 

the hypothesis that the postsettlement expansion of juniper was synchronous with the introduction of domestic 

livestock, reduction in fire frequency, and optimal climate conditions for plant growth. We documented the fire 

history and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) woodland chronology for a sagebrush steppe in a 

5,000 ha watershed in south central Oregon Regional tree ring data were used as proxy data for presettlement 

climatic conditions. Western juniper age distribution was determined by coring trees across the study area. Fire 

history was constructed from several small clusters of presettlement ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) 

scattered across the study area. Samples were crossdated to determine fire occurrence to the calendar year. 

Mean fire intervals were computed for each cluster based on cumulative fire history of each tree sampled within 

the cluster. Fire events in low sagebrush (Artemisia arbuscula Nutt.) were documented by determining death 

dates of fire-killed western juniper trees. Records dating the introduction and buildup of livestock during the late 

1800s and dates of initial fire suppression were summarized. Western juniper expansion began between 1875 

and 1885 with peak expansion rates occurring between 1905 and 1925. The fire record spans 1601 to 1996. 

Before 1891, mean fire intervals within individual clusters ranged from 12 to 15 years with years between fixes 

varying between 3 to 28. Nearly one third of the fires in the basin were large and usually proceeded by one year 

of above-average tree ring growth. Two fire events were record in the sparsely vegetated low sagebrush site, 

1717 and 1855. The last large fire occurred in the study area in 1870 and the last small fire in 1897. The time 

sequence of wet climatic conditions between 1870 and 1915, introduction of livestock, and the reduced role of 

fire support the hypothesis that these factors contributed to the postsettlement expansion of western juniper. 


Volume 52 

Issue 6 

Pages 550–559 



ISSN 0022-409X 


Extra Keywords: woodland; succession; Juniperus occidentalis; Artemisia. 



Fire history at the forest-grassland ecotone in southwestern Montana 


Author Stephen F. Arno 

Author George E. Gruell 

Abstract The history and influence of fires was studied at the forest grassland ecotone in high valleys of southwestern 

Montana. Investigations were focused upon several sites having early landscape photographs and modern 

retakes that allow for detection of vegetational changes. Fire intervals were determined for these sites by 

analyzing fire scars on trees. Prior to 1910, mean fire intervals at Pseudotsuga forest-grassland ecotones were 35 

to 40 years, and probably shorter in grassland proper. No fires were detected on the study areas after 1918. 

Photographic comparisons and field inspections show a substantial increase in mountain big sagebrush 

(Artemisia tridentata subsp. vaseyana ) and conifers since 1900. 


Volume 36 

Issue 3 

Pages 332–336 

Date May 1983 

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ISSN 0022-409X 

URL http://digitalcommons.library.arizona.edu/holdings/journal/issue? 

r=http://jrm.library.arizona.edu/Volume36/Number3/ 

Loc. in Archive http://www.jstor.org/stable/3898481 



Fire history in high elevation subalpine forests in the Colorado Front Range 





Abstract Resource managers rely on knowledge of fire history-to guide management decisions, but for the subalpine zone 

of the Colorado Front Range little information exists on fire history documenting changes in fire regimes over 

the past several centuries. We examined fire history at 13 high elevation sites in the Colorado Front Range to 

detect long-term trends that may be related to changes in land use and/or to climatic variability. There is a high 

degree of spatial and temporal variation in fire regimes across sites; however, most sites exhibit an increase in 

fire frequency during the 20th century compared to the 19th century. We did not find any evidence that fire 

suppression after the creation of National Forests and Rocky Mountain National Park in the early 1900s 

decreased fire frequency at the highest elevations of forest cover in the Front Range. Human influences over the 

last 200 years have played less of a role in these high elevation subalpine forests than in the lower elevation 

forests of the Colorado Front Range. In the absence of effective fire exclusion in these high elevation forests, 

there is no basis for assuming that forest structure and fuel conditions are outside of the historic range of 

variability for this habitat. Fire occurrence in these high elevation sites is highly dependent on drought, which 

often results from La Nina events. In comparison with lower elevation ponderosa pine forests of the Front 

Range, fire is less dependent on increased fuel production following wet El Niño events. 

Publication Ecoscience 

Volume 8 

Issue 3 

Pages 369–380 

Date 2001 

Journal Abbr Ecoscience 

ISSN 1195-6860 

URL http://www.ecoscience.ulaval.ca/catalogue/E_detail.php? 

id=213&retour=70 

Extra Keywords : fire; climate change; subalpine forests; Colorado Front Range; El Niño-Southern Oscillation. 



Fire history in interior ponderosa pine communities of the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA 



Author Carolyn Hull Sieg 

Abstract Chronologies of fire events were reconstructed from crossdated fire-scarred ponderosa pine trees for four sites 

in the south-central Black Hills. Compared to other ponderosa pine forests in the southwest US or southern 

Rocky Mountains, these communities burned less frequently. For all sites combined, and using all fires detected, 

the mean fire interval (MFI), or number of years between fire years, was 16 years (± 14 SD) for the period 1388 

to 1900. When a yearly minimum percentage of trees recording scars of ≥ 25% is imposed, the MFI was 20 

years (± 14 SD). The length of the most recent fire-free period (104 years, from 1890 to 1994) exceeds the 

longest intervals in the pre-settlement era (before ca. 1874), and is likely the result of human-induced land use 

changes. Based on fire scar position within annual rings, most past fires occurred late in the growing season or 

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after growth had ceased for the year. These findings have important implications for management of ponderosa 

pine forests in the Black Hills and for understanding the role of fire in pre-settlement ecosystem function. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 97–105 

Date 1996 


DOI 10.1071/WF9960097 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF9960097 

Extra Keywords: pinus ponderosa; dendrochronology; crossdating; fire scars; fire chronology; mean fire interval; 

Black Hills, South Dakota. 



Fire history in northern Patagonia: The roles of humans and climatic variation 




Author Ricardo Villalba 

Author Joseph Donnegan 

Abstract The effects of humans and climatic variation on fire history in northern Patagonia, Argentina, were examined by 

dating fire scars on 458 trees at 21 sites in rain forests of Fitzroya cupressoides and xeric woodlands of 

Austrocedrus chilensis from 39° to 43° S latitude. Climatic variation associated with fires was analyzed on the 

basis of 20th-century observational records and tree ring proxy records of climatic variation since 

approximately AD 1500. In the Austrocedrus woodlands, fire frequency increases after about 1850, coincident 

with greater use of the area by Native American hunters. Increased burning, particularly in the zone of more 

mesic forests, is also strongly associated with forest clearing by European settlers from about 1880 to the early 

1900s. The marked decline in fire frequency during the 20th century coincides with both the demise of Native 

American hunters in the 1890s and increasingly effective fire exclusion. Strong synchroneity in the years of 

widespread fire at sample sites dispersed over a north–south distance of ~400 km indicates a strong climatic 

influence on fire occurrence at an annual scale. Tree ring reconstructions of regional precipitation and 

temperature show a steeply declining influence of climatic variability on fire occurrence from annual to 

multidecadal scales. It is the interannual variability in climate, rather than variations in average climatic 

conditions over longer periods, that strongly influences fire regimes in northern Patagonia. Although climatic 

variability overrides human influences on fire regimes at an interannual scale, human activity is an equally 

important determinant of fire frequency at multidecadal scales. Climatic conditions conducive to widespread 

fire in both xeric Austrocedrus woodlands and Fitzroya rain forests are typical of the late stages of La Ninã 

(cold phase of the Southern Oscillation) events, as indicated by trends in the Southern Oscillation Index and 

eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the 1–2 years before and after fire event years. Years of 

extreme fire occurrence are associated both with dry winter–springs of La Ninã events and with the warm 

summers following El Ninõ events. Years in which the southeast Pacific subtropical anticyclone is intense and 

located farther south than normal are years of enhanced drought and fire. Similarly, years of widespread fire in 

northern Patagonia are associated with variations in mean sea level atmospheric pressure at about 50°–60° S 

latitude in the South American–Antarctic Peninsula sector of the Southern Ocean, as reconstructed from tree 

rings for AD 1746–1984. Precipitation and, hence, fire regimes in northern Patagonia are significantly 

influenced by high-latitude blocking events, which drive westerly cyclonic storms northward. Variations at 

decadal to centennial time scales in major circulation features, such as ENSO activity and the meridionality of 

regional air flow at high latitudes, as well as changes in the degree of coupling of these features, influence 

climate and fire regimes of northern Patagonia. 


Volume 69 

Issue 1 

228 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Pages 47-67 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0047:FHINPT]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9615 

Short Title Fire History in Northern Patagonia 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890 

/0012-9615%281999%29069%5B0047%3AFHINPT%5D2.0.CO%3B2? 

journalCode=emon 

Extra Keywords: anthropogenic influences; Argentina; Austrocedrus chilensis; climatic variation; dendroecology; El 

Ninõ; fire history; Fitzroya cupressoides; global change; Patagonia; Southern Oscillation; tree rings. 



Fire history in the ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests on the east slope of the Washington Cascades 


Author Richard L. Everett 

Author Richard Schellhaas 

Author Dave Keenum 

Author Don Spurbeck 

Author Pete Ohlson 

Abstract We collected 490 and 233 fire scars on two ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga 

menziesii) dominated landscapes on the east slope of the Washington Cascades that contained a record of 3901 

and 2309 cross-dated fire events. During the pre-settlement period (1700/1750–1860), the Weibull median 

fire-free interval (WMFFI) and the mean fire-free interval (MFFI) were 6.6–7 years at both sites. The MFFI 

during the settlement period (1860–1910) varied within 3 years of the pre-settlement value, but increased to 38 

and 43 years for a truncated fire suppression period between 1910 and 1996. Increased variation in MFFI 

among aspect polygons suggests fire regimes have become more complex since Euro-settlement. In the 

pre-settlement period, an area equal to approximately 50–60% of the study areas burned every 6–7 years, an 

amount of fire disturbance apparently in balance with landscape and stand vegetation structure. Overlapping 

fires have created a complex mosaic of different fire histories on these forested landscapes. Mapped fire events 

from the 1700–1910 showed 134 and 157 separate fire history polygons (FHP) at the two sites. Fire disturbance 

rates and patterns are suggested as ecologically defensible reference points for landscape heterogeneity to 

reduce the potential for catastrophic fires and to establish vegetation disturbance management guidelines. 


Volume 129 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 207–225 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(99)00168-1 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem integrity; fire-free intervals; fire history polygons; fire regimes; landscape dynamics; 

natural fire rotation; patch mosaic. 



Fire history in three vegetation types on the eastern side of the Oregon Cascades 

Type Thesis 

Author Joyce L. Bork 

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Abstract Historic fire return intervals in three different vegetation types dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa 

Laws.) were determined using fire scarred trees. Dendrochronological techniques were used to achieve 

accuracy in dating fire scars on samples collected from six 40 acre plots established in each site. Mean fire 

return intervals (MFRI) differed for site and plots within each site; Pringle Butte site showed the shortest MFRI 

of 4 years with an average of 11 years for individual plots, Cabin Lake site had a 7 year MFRI and a 24 year 

MFRI for plots, while Lookout Mountain site had a MFRI of 8 years and 16 years for plots. The overall average 

for plots incorporates all of the data for the site but uses a 40 acre plot mean to determine length of time 

required for fire to return to the same location, giving a more accurate indication of MFRI in a given stand. The 

plot mean may be the most useful way of expressing the data. Basal area and understory vegetation were found 

to be useful for predicting MFRI. Tree-ring chronologies from the three sites were examined to determine their 

suitability for climatic interpretation. Statistics show low mean sensitivities, high serial correlations and low 

variance for all trees and cores, suggesting that chronologies are of limited use for climatic analysis. However, 

climatic information was found. Growth patterns in sites show similar years for drought and high precipitation. 

Long-term trends were not evident at Cabin Lake or Lookout Mountain. Pringle Butte provided the chronology 

most useful for estimating climatic history, with 3 long periods of slow growth, 1900-1980, 1710-1790, and 

1590-1640. 

Type Ph.D. Dissertation 

University Oregon State University 

Place Corvallis, OR 



URL http://scholarsarchive.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/handle/1957/10122 

Library Catalog Oregon State University 

Extra Keywords: forest fires; Oregon; history. 



Fire history of a post oak (Quercus stellata Wang.) woodland in Hamilton County, Illinois 


Author William E. McClain 

Author Terry L. Esker 

Author Bob R. Edgin 

Author Greg Spyreas 

Author John E. Ebinger 

Abstract Cross-sections of 36 post oaks (Quercus stellata Wang.) were examined to determine the fire history of a post 

oak woodland in Hamilton County, Illinois. The 226-year tree ring record contained three distinct periods; a fire 

era from 1776 to1850 having a mean fire return interval of 1.97 years, a fire-free period from 1851 to1884, and 

a second fire era from 1885 to 1996 having a mean fire return interval of 1.44 years. The fire-free interval 

corresponds with the rapid settlement of Hamilton County during 1850–85. The fires between 1770 and 1850 

are considered landscape fires associated with Native Americans and/or early European settlers, while those 

between 1885 and 1996 are thought to be due to burning of local woodlands, a practice that became 

increasingly less common in the late 20th century. Three post oak cohorts were identified, including 211–224 

year-old (217-year mean), 137–151 year-old (144-year mean), and 104–115 year-old (105-year mean) age 

classes. Post oak recruitment ended and fire sensitive hickories (Carya ovata and C. tomentosa), black cherry 

(Prunus serotina), sassafras (Sassafras albidum), and black oak (Quercus velutina) now dominate the seedling 

and sapling layers of the woodland. 

Publication Castanea 

Volume 75 

Issue 4 

Pages 461-474 


Journal Abbr Castanea 

DOI 10.2179/09-007.1 

ISSN 0008-7475 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2179/09-007.1 

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Fire history of a ridge and valley oak forest 


Author Thomas M. Schuler 

Author W. Russ McClain 

Abstract We document the fire history of an oak stand located near Pike Knob, Pendleton County, WV using 17 northern 

red oak (Quercus rubra L.) basal cross sections. The FHX2® program was used to characterize fire intervals and 

to evaluate the goodness of fit between fire intervals and the normal and Weibull distributions. The composite 

fire chronology was compared to mean fall and spring Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1895 to 

2002. A 156-year fire history chronology was developed from 1846 to 2002 and fire intervals ranged from 7 to 

32 years for a single forest stand. The most recent fire occurred in 1962 based on the fire scar presence. The 

Weibull median fire interval was 14.76 years for one or more trees scarred during a single year, and 17.11 years 

when at least two trees were scarred during a single year. Mean fall PDSI was less for fire years than nonfire 

years (p = 0.046), but there was no evidence that mean spring PDSI differed between fire years and nonfire 

years (p = 0.596). Oak recruitment ceased after 1937, during an unusually long fire-free interval, offering 

indirect support of the important role of fire in perpetuating oak forests of the region. 

Report Number RP-NE-724 



Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station 


Pages 9 p. 


Extra Keywords: northern red oak; fire history; fire interval; Palmer Drought Severity Index. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Schuler, Thomas M.; McClain, W. Russ. 2003. Fire History of a Ridge and Valley Oak Forest. Res. Pap. NE-724. Newtown Square, 

PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. 9 p. 

Fire history of a sequoia-mixed conifer forest 


Author Bruce M. Kilgore 

Author Dan Taylor 

Abstract Data on the years in which fires burned, on fire frequency, and on intensity and areal extent of fires were 

gathered from 935 scars on 220 stumps of mixed conifer forest species in an 1800-ha study area in the Sierra 

Nevada, California, USA. Before 1875, fires scarred clusters of living trees every 9 yr on west-facing slopes at 

Redwood Mountain and every 16 yr on east-facing slopes. Mean fire-free intervals between 1700 and 1875 

varied by habitat phase from 5 yr in ponderosa pine on a dry ridge to 15-18 yr in most moist sites with white fir. 

For most 1-ha sites, the maximum time without fire was 14-28 yr. From 1700 to 1875, fires on various sizes 

were found every 2-3 yr somewhere in a given drainage (not necessarily the same site) and every 5-9 yr in 3- to 

16-ha sites. This compares with fires every 8-18 yr in 1-ha clusters and 11-39 yr on individual trees. Scar 

records of pre-1700 fires suggest intervals fairly comparable to those from 1700 to 1875. Evidence of fires 

diminished greatly after Indian burning was eliminated in the early 1870's, and such fire records became almost 

nonexistent after 1900, when fire suppression became more effective. Most of the pre-1875 fires were small and 

of low intensity. Even the larger fires were usually confined to 1 slope or 1 drainage area. The short mean 

intervals between fires suggest that pre-1875 mixed conifer forests did not usually have heavy accumulations of 

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litter or dense thickets of understory trees. Instead, small-acreage, low-intensity surface first must have 

consumed accumulated litter at frequent intervals and at the same time killed most of the conifer regeneration 

which had become established since previous fires. Such frequent fires would have led to an intricate mosaic of 

age classes and vegetation subtypes which, in turn, insured that a subsequent fire would not burn large areas 

with great intensity. Intense fires which moved from crown to crown were absent in the study area for the past 

400 to 2000 yr. If frequency of lightning ignition of fires over the past 50 yr is typical, ignitions by Indians must 

have augmented lightning-caused fires to yield the pre-1865 frequency of fires in the Sierra mixed conifer 

forest. Since 1900, the lack of frequent, low-intensity fires has resulted in a major increase in understory forest 

and fuels. 


Volume 60 

Issue 1 

Pages 129–142 



DOI 10.2307/1936475 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: California; fire frequency; fire history; fire intensity; Indian burning; mixed conifer forest; Pinus 

ponderosa; Sequoiadendron giganteum. 



Fire history of oak gallery forests in a northeast Kansas tallgrass prairie 



Abstract Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and chinquapin oak (Q. muehlenbergii) were repeatedly scarred from recurring 

fire in gallery forests on Konza Prairie in NE Kansas, and were therefore suitable for fire history evaluation. Fire 

scars were recorded in 23 different years, ranging from 1862 to 1983, on 19 sample trees taken from three 

noncontiguous gallery forest stands. The mean fire interval (MFI) calculated for these forests ranged from 

11.2-19.7 years. The actual MFI, however, probably lies somewhere between that range and the historical 

interval for Flint Hills prairie fire of 2-3 years. 


Volume 114 

Issue 1 

Pages 188-191 



DOI 10.2307/2425255 

ISSN 0003-0031 




Fire history of oak-pine forests in the Lower Boston Mountains, Arkansas, USA 



Author Martin A. Spetich 

Abstract Perspective on present day issues associated with wildland fire can be gained by studying the long-term 

interactions among humans, landscape, and fire. Fire frequency and extent over the last 320 years document 

these interactions north of the Arkansas River on the southern edge of the Lower Boston Mountains. 

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Dendrochronological methods were used to construct three fire chronologies from 309 dated fire scars that were 

identified on 45 shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) remnants. Fire frequency increased with human population 

density from a depopulated period (the late 1600s and early 1700s) to a peak in fire frequency circa 1880. Fire 

frequency then decreased as human population continued to increase. Fire frequency and human population 

density were positively correlated during an early period (1680–1880) with low levels of population, but 

negatively correlated during a later period (1881–1910) with high levels of population. We hypothesized that 

this difference is due to limits on fire propagation and ignition caused by land use and culture, as well as human 

population density. Relatively high human population densities (>5 humans/km²) were associated with a peak in 

the maximum number of fires per decade in this highly dissected, ‘bluff and bench’ landscape compared to less 

dissected regions of the Ozarks. 


Volume 180 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 463–474 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00613-8 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: Ozarks; dendrochronology; human population; fire scar; Arkansas River. 



Fire history of Paunsaugunt Plateau in southern Utah 


Author Steven J. Stein 

Abstract A fine history of the Paunsaugunt Plateau in southern Utah was developed using dendrochronological methods. 

Fire frequencies of individual ponderosa pine trees from three sites on the plateau varied from 19.5 to 47 years. 

Composite fire intervals for the three sites ranged from 15.2 to 18.4 years. The last recorded fires in these study 

areas occurred in 1892, 1902, and 1911, corresponding to the initiation of fire suppression policies in the West. 

The absence of fire since 1911 may be contributing to a recently documented decrease in ponderosa pine 

regeneration within the high-elevation, mixed-coniferous forests of the Paunsaugunt Plateau. 

Publication Western North American Naturalist 

Volume 48 

Issue 1 

Pages 58–63 

Date 1988 

Journal Abbr West N. Am. Naturalist 

ISSN 1527-0904 

URL https://ojs.lib.byu.edu/ojs/index.php/wnan/article/view/1815 



Fire history of the westernmost portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park 


Author Mark Harmon 

Abstract Fire scars, soil charcoal, historical accounts, and fire control records indicate that the fire regime in the 

western portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park has changed dramatically during the last 200 years. 

The mean interval between fires, based on fire scars from pine forests for the period 1856 to 1940 was 12.7 

years. Most of these fires were probably set by settlers, and man-set fires may have been an important influence 

since Indians migrated into the Little Tennessee River Valley. 

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Volume 109 

Issue 1 

Pages 74–79 

Date January-March 1982 

Journal Abbr Bull. Torr. Bot. Club 

DOI 10.2307/2484470 

ISSN 0040-9618 


Extra Keywords: fire history; Great Smoky Mountains National Park; North Carolina; Tennessee. 



Fire history on a desert mountain range: Rincon Mountain Wilderness, Arizona, USA 




Abstract Modem fire records and fire-scarred remnant material collected from logs, snags, and stumps were used to 

reconstruct and analyze fire history in the mixed-conifer and pine forest above 2300 m within the Rincon 

Mountain Wilderness of Saguaro National Monument, Arizona, United States. Cross-dating of the remnant 

material allowed dating of fire events to the calendar year. Estimates of seasonal occurrence were compiled for 

larger fires. It was determined that the fire regime was dominated by large scale (>200 ha), early-season 

(May-July) surface fires. The mean fire interval over the Mica Mountain study area for the period 1657-1893 

was 6.1 years with a range of 113 years for larger fires. The mean fire interval for the mixed-conifer forest type 

(1748-1886) was 9.9 years with a range of 319 years. Thirty-five major tire years between 1700 and 1900 were 

compared with a tree-ring reconstruction of the Pa mer drought severity index (PDSI). Mean July PDSI for 2 

years prior to fires was higher (wetter) than average, while mean fire year PDSI was near average. This 

490-year record of fire occurrence demonstrates the value of high-resolution (annual and seasonal) tree-ring 

analyses for documenting and interpreting temporal and spatial patterns of past fire regimes. 


Volume 20 

Issue 10 

Pages 1559–1569 



DOI 10.1139/x90-208 

ISSN 0045-5067 

Short Title Fire history on a desert mountain range 




Fire history reconstructions based on sediment records from lakes and wetlands (Chapter 1) 





Book Title Fire and Climatic Change in Temperate Ecosystems of the Western Americas 


Volume 160 

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Date 2003 

Pages 3-31 

ISBN 978-0-387-95455-4 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/l44r331p2768q320/ 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Whitlock, C., and R.S. Anderson. 2003. Fire history reconstructions based on sediment records from lakes and wetlands. In Fire and 

Climatic Change in Temperate Ecosystems of the Western Americas (T.T. Veblen, W.L. Baker, G. Montenegro, and T.W. Swetnam, 

eds.), pp. 3-31. Ecological Studies, vol. 160. Springer-Verlag, New York. 

Fire history, fire regimes, and climate change – integrating information for management and planning 



Author Stanley Coloff 


Author Josh McDaniel 

Abstract Background/Question/Methods Federal and other natural resource managers in the United States are now 

required to consider climate change in their planning. Wildland fire is a major component included in many of 

these planning efforts. Fire is a widespread ecosystem disturbance process that is global in scope with local to 

regional, event driven, resource and societal impacts. The frequency, severity and extent of Wildland fires are 

largely a function of interactions between vegetation and atmospheric processes. Fire activity and management 

costs have increased significantly over the last few decades. There is growing evidence that these increases 

relate to measured changes in climate variables. Our understanding of fire history, fire regimes, and past 

interactions between fire and climate has grown substantially in recent years. Fire regimes provide a context for 

interpreting fire history to facilitate our understanding of fire in relation to climate and other factors, and 

provide a bridge between ecosystem characteristics and climate change projections. The challenge is to provide 

managers with placed-based information about fire and climate change, involving multiple scales of atmospheric 

and ecosystem process interaction, that they can use for planning and communication purposes. 

Results/Conclusions We present results of an on going study that integrates fire history, fire regime, and climate 

change information in formats designed for use by managers in their climate change planning efforts. A 

representative group of land managers reviewed our proposed information structure in an interactive workshop 

setting, and provided recommendations for how to make this information accessible and useful to them. We 

characterize atmospheric scales of importance to fire as the climate change, climate variability, and event scales. 

These relate to long-term evolution of vegetation, seasonal to decadal drought, and fire events. We use Bailey’s 

vegetation classification at various ecosystem scales to organize the fire history and fire regime information. 

Bailey classifications also serve as a bridge to LANDFIRE components, such as the Fire Regime Condition 

Class (FRCC), and as a link to GCM-based climate projections. In addition to reporting overall findings, we 

present examples of specific place-based information for representative ecosystems in different areas of the 

United States. 

Publication Nature Precedings 


Journal Abbr Nature Precedings 

DOI 10.1038/npre.2010.5238.1 

ISSN 1756-0357 

URL http://precedings.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/npre.2010.5238.1 



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Fire in America: A cultural history of wildland and rural fire 

Type Book 




Place Princeton, New Jersey 

Publisher Princeton University Press 

Date 1982 


ISBN 978-0-691-08300-1 

Short Title Fire in America 

URL http://www.stephenpyne.com/cycle_of_fire___and_more_92910.htm 



Notes: 

Review: 

"Fire in America is the biggest, most ambitious, and fact-filled book about woodland, brush and prairie fires in the United States. 

Reading it is like backpacking through the nation's forests in company with a modern-day Thoreau."--Dennis Smith, The New York 

Times Book Review 

(from: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4407.html#reviews) 

A comprehensive review in 8 chapters. 

Chapter 1: Nature's fire [pp. 6-65] covers lightning fire, the principles of fire behaviour and ecology and a fire history of the 

northeastern USA. 

Chapter 2: The fire from Asia [pp. 66-122] describes fire and the American Indian, the fire history of the prairies, and the history of 

and controversy over light [controlled] burning (Paiute forestry). 

Chapter 3: The fire from Europe [pp. 123-180] gives a fire history of the south and of fire prevention. 

Chapter 4: The great barbeque [pp. 181-238] gives a fire history of the Lake States and of private and early government fire 

protection. 

Chapter 5: The heroic age [pp. 239-321] gives a fire history of the N. Rockies and the history of fire policy in the US Forest Service 

and in the Department of the Interior and interagency organizations. 

Chapter 6: A continental experiment [pp. 322-386] gives a fire history of the northwest, and describes fire protection by different 

States, with a history of manpower use in fire control (suppression). 

Chapter 7: The cold war on fire [pp. 387-461] includes a fire history of S. California, fire equipment and rural fire defence, and 

Chapter 8: Fields of fire [pp. 462-529] covers wildland fire research and the fire histories of Alaska and the southwest. 

At the end of the book, notes are given on each chapter with references, and there is a bibliographic essay on the major American 

sources and an index. 

Fire in California's ecosystems 

Type Book 

Editor Neil G. Sugihara 

Editor Jan W. van Wagtendonk 

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Notes: 

Editor Kevin E. Shaffer 

Editor Jo Ann Fites-Kaufman 

Editor Andrea E. Thode 

Abstract Description Fire is both an integral natural process in the California landscape and growing threat to its urban 

and suburban developments as they encroach on wildlands. Written by many of the foremost authorities on the 

subject, this comprehensive volume, an ideal text and authoritative reference tool, is the first to synthesize our 

knowledge of the science, ecology, and management of fire in California. Part I introduces the basics of fire 

ecology. It includes an historical overview of fire, vegetation, and climate in California; overviews of fire as a 

physical and ecological process; and reviews the interactions between fire and the physical, plant, and animal 

components of the environment. Part II explores the history and ecology of fire in each of California's nine 

bioregions. Part III examines fire management in California, including both Native American and post-European 

settlement; discusses current issues related to fire policy and management, including air quality, watershed 

management, invasive plant species, native species, and fuel management; and considers the future of fire 

management. (from: http://www.amazon.com/Fire-Californias-Ecosystems-Neil-Sugihara/dp/0520246055) 


Publisher University of California Press, Berkeley 

Date 2006 


ISBN 0520246055, 9780520246058 

URL http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php? 

isbn=9780520246058 

Extra e-book available 



Contents: 

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS 

FOREWORD 

James K. Agee 

PREFACE 

1. Fire and California Vegetation 

Neil G. Sugihara and Michael G. Barbour 

PART I 

Introduction to Fire Ecology 

2. California Climate and Fire Weather 

Richard A. Minnich 

3. Fire as a Physical Process 

Jan W. van Wagtendonk 

4. Fire as an Ecological Process 

Neil G. Sugihara, Jan W. van Wagtendonk, and JoAnn Fites-Kaufman 

5. Fire and Physical Environment Interactions: Soil, Water, and Air 

Peter M. Wohlgemuth, Ken Hubbert, and Michael J. Arbaugh 

6. Fire and Plant Interactions 

JoAnn Fites-Kaufman, Anne F. Bradley, and Amy G. Merrill 

7. Fire and Animal Interactions 

Kevin E. Shaffer and William F. Laudenslayer, Jr. 

PART II 

The History and Ecology of Fire in California’s Bioregions 

8. North Coast Bioregion 

John D. Stuart and Scott L. Stephens 

9. Klamath Mountains Bioregion 

Carl N. Skinner, Alan H. Taylor, and James K. Agee 

10. Southern Cascades Bioregion 

Carl N. Skinner and Alan H. Taylor 

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11. Northeastern Plateaus Bioregion 

Gregg M. Riegel, Richard F. Miller, Carl N. Skinner, and Sydney E. Smith 

12. Sierra Nevada Bioregion 

Jan W. van Wagtendonk and Joann Fites-Kaufman 

13. Central Valley Bioregion 

Robin Wills 

14. Central Coast Bioregion 

Frank W. Davis and Mark I. Borchert 

15. South Coast Bioregion 

Jon E. Keeley 

16. Southeastern Deserts Bioregion 

Matthew L. Brooks and Richard A. Minnich 

PART II I 

Fire Management Issues in California’s Ecosystems 

17. The Use of Fire by Native Americans in California 

M. Kat Anderson 

18. Fire Management and Policy Since European Settlement 

Scott L. Stephens and Neil G. Sugihara 

CONTENTS 

19. Fire and Fuel Management 

Sue Husari, H. Thomas Nichols, Neil G. Sugihara, and Scott L. Stephens 

20. Fire, Watershed Resources, and Aquatic Ecosystems 

Andrea E. Thode, Jeffrey L. Kershner, Ken Roby, Lynn M. Decker, and Jan L. Beyers 

21. Fire and Air Resources 

Suraj Ahuja 

22. Fire and Invasive Plant Species 

Robert C. Klinger, Matthew L. Brooks, and John M. Randall 

23. Fire and At-Risk Species 

Kevin E. Shaffer 

24. The Future of Fire in California’s Ecosystems 

Neil G. Sugihara, Jan W. van Wagtendonk, JoAnn Fites-Kaufman, Kevin E. Shaffer, and Andrea E. Thode 

APPENDIX 1: PLANT COMMON AND SCIENTIFIC NAMES 

APPENDIX 2: ANIMAL COMMON AND SCIENTIFIC NAMES 

APPENDIX 3: BIOREGIONS, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, AND PLANT ALLIANCES OF CALIFORNIA THAT OCCUR IN THIS 

TEXT 

GLOSSARY 

INDEX 

page 2: Bailey (1996) and Bailey et al. (1994) developed an ecosystem classification based on climate, as affected by latitude, 

continental position, elevation, and landform. 

Fire in eastern ecosystems (Chapter 4) 


Author Dale D. Wade 

Author Brent L. Brock 


Author James B. Grace 

Author Greg A. Hoch 

Author William A. Patterson III 

Abstract Prior to Euro-American settlement, fire was a ubiquitous force across most of the Eastern United States. Fire 

regimes spanned a time-scale from chronic to centuries. Fire severity varied from benign to extreme (fig. 1-2). 

Today, fire is still a major force on the landscape. In some ecosystems fire stabilizes succession at a particular 

sere, while in others, succession is set back to pioneer species. The wide range in fire regimes coupled with 

elevation and moisture gradients produce a myriad of plant communities that continually change over time in 

both stature and composition, although it is not uncommon for the major species to remain dominant. Discussion 

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is primarily about major vegetation types, for example, oak-hickory. However, some minor types such as 

spruce-fir and Table Mountain pine are also covered. Vegetation types are discussed under the most 

representative fire regime type, recognizing that some vegetation types overlap two fire regime types (table 4-1). 

Report Number GTR-RMRS-042-vol. 2 


Series Title Wildland fire in ecosystems 


Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 


Pages 53-96 




Notes: 

Citation: 

Wade, Dale D.; Brock, Brent L.; Brose, Patrick H.; Grace, James B.; Hoch, Greg A.; Patterson, William A. 2000. Fire in eastern 

ecosystems. Pages 53-96 In: Brown, James K.; Smith, Jane Kapler. (ed.). Wildland Fire in Ecosystems: Effects of Fire on Flora. 

General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-42-vol. 2. Ogden, UT: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 

Fire in ecosystem distribution and structure: Western forests and scrublands 

Notes: 


Author Bruce M. Kilgore 

Abstract Fire plays an important role in determining structure of forests and scrublands throughout the West. Distribution 

and structure of vegetation depends upon topography, climatic regime, and fire regime. Six fire regimes are 

defined based on fire frequency and intensity, varying from frequent, lowintensity surface fires to very long 

return interval, stand replacement fires. In certain western forests and scrublands fire suppression for the past 50 

to 100 years has led to longer intervals between fires, increases in surface and crown fuels, changes in forest 

structure, and sequential impacts on fire intensity, postfire age structure, species composition, fuel 

accumulation, and both horizontal and vertical pattern. Better understanding of fire regimes is basic to our 

management of western ecosystems. 

Book Title Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties Proceedings of the Conference 

Series General Technical Report 

Series Number WO-GTR-26 


Publisher USDA Forest Service 


Pages 58-89 

Short Title Fire in ecosystem distribution and structure 

URL http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/barkbeetles/81/ 

Extra Keywords: western forests; fire regimes; fire frequency; fire intensity; scrublands. 



Citation: 

Kilgore, B. (1981). Fire in ecosystem distribution and structure : western forests and scrublands. In: HA Mooney, TM Bonnicksen, and 

NL Christensen (tech.cord) Proceedings of the Conference: Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties, pp. 58-89. USDA Forest Service, 

General Technical Report WO-GTR-26. 

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Fire in forestry: Volume 1. Forest fire behavior and effects 

Notes: 

Contents: 

Type Book 

Author Craig C. Chandler 

Author Phillip Cheney 

Author Philip Thomas 

Author Louis V. Trabaud 

Author Dave J. Williams 

Abstract This first volume is a comprehensive reference on the behavior of forest fires, the factors affecting that 

behavior, and the effects of fires on forest ecosystems. Discusses how to organize the control and use of forest 

fires in land management. Complex concepts and mathematics are kept to a minimum. Thoroughly international 

in scope. 

Volume 1 



Publisher John Wiley & Sons, INC. 

Date 1983 


ISBN 0471874426 

Short Title Fire in forestry. Vol. 1 

URL http://md1.csa.com/partners/viewrecord.php? 

requester=gs&collection=ENV&… 



There are 11 chapters in volume 1: 

1. Chemistry and physics of ignition and combustion; 2. Forest 

fuels; 3. Forest fire 

weather; 4. Fire 

behavior; 5. Fire behavior 

prediction; 6. Ecological principles and their relationship to 

fire; 7. Fire effects on soil, water and 

air; 8. Fire effects on 

wildlife; 9. Fire effects on 

vegetation; 10. Fire as a natural process in forests; 

and 11. Forest fire terminology and conversion factors. 

Forest fire management and organization.Volume 2 also contains 11 chapters: 

1. Fire management policy; 2. Economics of fire 

management; 3. Fire 

prevention; 4. Presuppression 

activities; 5. Forest fire 

equipment; 6. Forest fire 

suppression; 7. Large fire 

organization; 8. Fire at the urban-forest 

interface; 9. Managing fire use - controlled 

burning; 10. Fireline safety; 

and 11. Forest fire terminology and conversion factors. 

Author and subject indexes are included in both volumes. 

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Fire in the American south: Vegetation impacts, history, and climatic relations 



Abstract Fire plays a key role in many ecosystems of the southeastern U.S. Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) and Table 

Mountain pine-pitch pine (P. pungens – P. rigida) forests along with other ecosystems – including oak (Quercus) 

forests, grasslands, and spruce-fir (Picea-Abies) forests – illustrate the range of fire effects and plant persistence 

strategies in the American South. Fire history research reveals that fires and fire-associated vegetation were 

common before the fire exclusion of the past century. Both lightning and anthropogenic ignitions (caused by 

American Indians or European settlers) contributed to burning, but their relative importance is debated. The 

humid climate constrains burning, especially by lightning-ignited fires, which often occur during moist 

conditions. Studies of fire climatology indicate the importance of dry conditions (e.g. drought years and 

relatively dry areas) for widespread burning in this humid region. Landscape fragmentation also influences 

burning. In the past some fires also likely grew much larger than today because they were unimpeded by roads, 

farms, and other barriers. 

Publication Geography Compass 

Volume 4 

Issue 8 

Pages 919-944 


Journal Abbr Geography Compass 

DOI 10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00363.x 

ISSN 1749-8198 




Fire in the Earth System 


Author D. M. J. S. Bowman 

Author J. K. Balch 

Author P. Artaxo 

Author W. J. Bond 

Author J. M. Carlson 

Author M. A. Cochrane 

Author C. M. D'Antonio 

Author R. S. DeFries 

Author J. C. Doyle 

Author S. P. Harrison 

Author F. H. Johnston 

Author J. E. Keeley 

Author M. A. Krawchuk 

Author C. A. Kull 

Author J. B. Marston 

Author M. A. Moritz 

Author I. C. Prentice 

Author C. I. Roos 

Author A. C. Scott 

Author T. W. Swetnam 

Author G. R. van der Werf 

Author S. J. Pyne 

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Abstract ire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial 

plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, 

the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire 

remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is 

difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of 

the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system. 


Volume 324 

Issue 5926 

Pages 481-484 

Date 04/2009 


DOI 10.1126/science.1163886 

ISSN 0036-8075 





Attachments 

Bowman et al Science 324, 481 April 2009.pdf 





Author Jennifer K. Balch 

Author Paulo Artaxo 


Author Jean M. Carlson 

Author Mark A. Cochrane 

Author Carla M. D'Antonio 

Author Ruth S. DeFries 

Author John C. Doyle 


Author Fay H. Johnston 


Author Meg A. Krawchuk 

Author Christian A. Kull 

Author J. Brad Marston 



Author Christopher I. Roos 

Author Andrew C. Scott 




Abstract Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial 

plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, 

the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire 

remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is 

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difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of 

the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system. 


Volume 324 

Issue 5926 

Pages 481-484 



DOI 10.1126/science.1163886 

ISSN 0036-8075 





Notes: 

Source: 





Abstract Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, 

biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial 

timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the 

principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution 

and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the 

development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and 

land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for 

biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem 

services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also 

escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, 

necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more 

harmonious co-existence of fire and people. 

Book Title Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society 

Series International Year of Planet Earth 


Place Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York 


Date 2010 

Pages 21–48 

ISBN 978-90-481-8715-7 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/t13341464245456u/ 

Extra Keywords: wildfire; fire regimes; fire patterns. 



J. Dodson (ed.), Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society, International Year of Planet Earth, DOI 

10.1007/978-90-481-8716-4_3, © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 

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Fire in the Earth System: A paleoperspective 


Editor Cathy Whitlock 

Editor Willy Tinner 

Editor Louise Newman 

Editor Thorsten Kiefer 

Abstract This newsletter issue provides an overview of the state-of-art in Paleofire research. It also includes a number of 

openly submitted scientific articles, and provides information on recently held meetings and upcoming events. 

Publication PAGES Newsletter 

Volume 18 

Issue 2 

Pages 54-96 


Journal Abbr PAGES News 

ISSN 1811-1602 

URL http://www.pages-igbp.org/index.php/products/2011-03-28-16-23-06/153-pages-news-vol-18-no-2 

Loc. in Archive PAGES 


Rights PAGES (Past Global Changes) International Project Office 



Fire in the environment: The ecological, atmospheric and climatic importance of vegetation fires: 

Report of the Dahlem Workshop, Berlin, 15-20 March, 1992 

Type Book 

Editor Paul J. Crutzen 

Editor Johann Georg Goldammer 


Series Dahlem workshop reports, Environmental sciences research report 

Series Number ES 13 

Volume 1992 

Place Chichester, England; New York, NY 




ISBN 0471936049, 9780471936046 

Short Title Fire in the environment 

URL http://books.google.com/books/about/Fire_in_the_environment.html? 

id=ZoPwAAAAMAAJ 



Fire in the forest 


Author James M. Saveland 

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Abstract From ancient philosophies to present day science, the ubiquity of change and the process of transformation are 

core concepts. The primary focus of a recent white paper on disturbance ecology is summed up by the Greek 

philosopher Heraclitus who stated, “Nothing is permanent but change.” Disturbance processes, such as fire, 

provide a window into the emerging world of nonequilibrium theory. In contrast to a steady state view of the 

world, nonequilibrium theory asserts that biological communities are always recovering from the last 

disturbance. Disturbance is somewhat of a misnomer, connoting disruption of an equilibrium. Disturbance is 

about death and rebirth, the continuous process of renewal. Incorporating the process of renewal and 

transformation is the key to creating healthy forests and effective organizations. The process of continuous 

renewal in organizations is embodied in the concept of learning organizations. Building shared vision is one of 

the cornerstones of a learning organization and is the first step to incorporating disturbance ecology in land 

management practices. 


Proceedings Title Forest Health Through Silviculture: Proceedings of the 1995 National Silviculture Workshop 

Conference Name The 1995 National Silviculture Workshop, Mescalero, New Mexico, May 8-11,1995 


Publisher U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 

Pages 14-19 

Series General Technical Report RM-GTR-267 

URL http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/5136 

Archive http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/22037 

Extra Keywords: change; process of transformation; disturbance processes; disturbance ecology. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Saveland, J. 1995. Fire in the Forest. Pages 14-19 in: L.G. Eskew compiler. Forest Health Through Silviculture: Proceedings of the 

1995 National Silviculture Workshop, Mescalero, NM, May 8-11, 1995. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-267. 

Fire in the forests of Maine and New Hampshire 


Author Timothy J. Fahey 

Author William A. Reiners 

Abstract Modern fire records for Maine and New Hampshire and other historical evidence were investigated to infer the 

occurrence and distribution of fire in pre-settlement time. Between the decades of 1910-1920 and 1960-1970 

fire incidence increased and average fire size decreased sharply, with the net effect being a several-fold 

diminution of land burned per year. Fire was unequally distributed among forest types. Pine-dominated forests 

in the south-coastal part of the States were burned most frequently, with northern hardwood forests in central 

portions intermediate and spruce-fir forests least influenced by fire. The spruce-fir type in northern New 

England appears to be an exception to the generalization that coniferous forests burn more readily than 

hardwoods. Historical evidence suggests that in pre- Columbian time a significant potential for fire ignition 

existed in association with lightning and the incendiary activities of Native Americans. Because human control 

of fire size was lacking, the extent of prehistoric fires may have equalled that in the early Twentieth century. 


Volume 108 

Issue 3 

Pages 362–373 



DOI 10.2307/2484716 

ISSN 0040-9618 


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Extra Keywords: Maine; New Hampshire; fire history; coniferous forests; hardwood forests. 



Fire in the virgin forests of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Minnesota 


Author Miron L. Heinselman 

Abstract Fire largely determined the composition and structure of the presettlement vegetation of the Boundary Waters 

Canoe Area as well as the vegetation mosaic on the landscape and the habitat patterns for wildlife. It also 

influenced nutrient cycles, and energy pathways, and helped maintain the diversity, productivity, and long-term 

stability of the ecosystem. Thus the whole ecosystem was fire-dependent. At least some overstory elements in 

virtually all forest stands still date from regeneration that followed one or more fires since 1595 A.D. The 

average interval between significant fire years was about 4 yr in presettlement times, but shortened to 2 yr from 

1868 to 1910 during settlement. However, 83% of the area burned before the beginning of suppression programs 

resulted from just nine fire periods: 1894, 1875, 1863-1964, 1824, 1801, 1755-1959, 1727, 1692, 1681. The 

average interval between these major fire years was 26 yr. Most present virgin forests date from regeneration 

that followed fires in these years. Significant areas were also regenerated by fires in 1903, 1910, 1936, and 

1971. Most major fire years occurred during prolonged summer droughts of subcontinental extent, such as those 

of 1864, 1910, and 1936. Many fires were man-caused, but lightning ignitions were also common. Lightning 

alone is probably a sufficient source of ignitions to guarantee that older stands burned before attaining climax. 

Dry matter accumulations, spruce budworm outbreaks, blowdowns, and other interactions related to time since 

fire increase the probability that old stands will burn. Vegetation patterns on the landscape were influenced by 

such natural firebreaks as lakes, streams, wetlands, and moist slopes. Red and white pine are most common on 

islands, and to the east, northeast, or southeast of such firebreaks. Jack pine, aspen-birch, and sprout hardwood 

forests are most common on large uplands distant from or west of such firebreaks. A Natural Fire Rotation of 

about 100 yr prevailed in presettlement times, but many red and white pine stands remained largely intact for 

150-350 yr, and some jack pine and aspen-birch forests probably burned at intervals of 50 yr or less. There is 

paleoecological evidence that fire was an ecosystem factor before European man arrived, and even before early 

man migrated to North America. Probably few areas ever attained the postulated fir-spruce-cedar-birch climax 

in postglacial times. To understand the dynamics of fire-dependent ecosystems fire must be studied as an 

integral part of the system. The search for stable communities that might develop without fire is futile and 

avoids the real challenge of understanding nature on her own terms. To restore the natural ecosystem of the 

Canoe Area fire should soon be reintroduced through a program of prescribed fires and monitored lightning 

fires. Failing this, major unnatural, perhaps unpredictable, changes in the ecosystem will occur. 


Volume 3 

Issue 3 

Pages 329-382 



DOI 10.1016/0033-5894(73)90003-3 

ISSN 0033-5894 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WPN-4DV0W55-B0/2/6c3006007355de5841f69a5113098256 



Fire intensity and frequency as factors in the distribution and structure of northern ecosystems. 


Author Miron L. Heinselman 

Abstract Most presettlement Canadian and Alaskan boreal forests and Rocky Mountain subalpine forests had lightning 

fire regimes of large-scale crown fires and high-intensity surface fires, causing total stand replacement on fire 

rotations (or cycles) of 50 to 200 years. Cycles and fire size varied with latitude, elevation, and topographicclimate 

factors. Some areas had smaller, less-intense surface fires at shorter intervals. The Great Lakes-Acadian 

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forests had regimes of short cycle crown fires in near-boreal jack pine and spruce forests, combinations of 

moderate intensity short-interval surface fires and small-scale crown fires at longer intervals in red-white pine 

forests, and low intensity long-interval fires in hardwoods. Fire maintained the structure and pattern of the forest 

mosaic. These regimes still prevail in the far north. Elsewhere regimes and the forest mosaic are greatly 

modified by logging, man-caused fires, and fire suppression. 

Date 1981 

Proceedings Title Fire regimes and ecosystem properties 

Conference Name Fire regimes and ecosystem properties proceedings of the conference : December 11-15, 1978 

Place Honolulu, Hawaii 

Publisher DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service 

Pages 7-57 

Series General Technical Report WO-26 

URL http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/literatr/firewild/bib/103.htm 

Extra Keywords: fire; frequency; regimes; northern; ecosystems. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Heinselman, Miron L. 1981. Fire intensity and frequency as factors in 

the distribution and structure of northern ecosystems. In: Mooney, H. 

A.; Bonnicksen, T. M.; Christensen, N. L.; [and others], technical 

coordinators. Fire regimes and ecosystem properties: Proceedings of the 

conference; 1978 December 11-15; Honolulu, HI. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-26. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: pp. 7-57. 

Heinselman, M.L. 1981. Fire intensity and frequency as factors in the 

distribution and structure of northern ecosystems. In Fire Regimes and 

Ecosystem Properties. Eds. H.A. Mooney, T.M. Bonnicksen, N.L. Christensen, 

J.E. Lotan and W.A. Reiners. USDA Forest Service, Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-26, 

pp 7--57. 

Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity: A brief review and suggested usage 



Abstract Several recent papers have suggested replacing the terminology of fire intensity and fire severity. Part of the 

problem with fire intensity is that it is sometimes used incorrectly to describe fire effects, when in fact it is 

justifiably restricted to measures of energy output. Increasingly, the term has created confusion because some 

authors have restricted its usage to a single measure of energy output referred to as fireline intensity. This metric 

is most useful in understanding fire behavior in forests, but is too narrow to fully capture the multitude of ways 

fire energy affects ecosystems. Fire intensity represents the energy released during various phases of a fire, and 

different metrics such as reaction intensity, fireline intensity, temperature, heating duration and radiant energy 

are useful for different purposes. Fire severity, and the related term burn severity, have created considerable 

confusion because of recent changes in their usage. Some authors have justified this by contending that fire 

severity is defined broadly as ecosystem impacts from fire and thus is open to individual interpretation. 

However, empirical studies have defined fire severity operationally as the loss of or change in organic matter 

aboveground and belowground, although the precise metric varies with management needs. Confusion arises 

because fire or burn severity is sometimes defined so that it also includes ecosystem responses. Ecosystem 

responses include soil erosion, vegetation regeneration, restoration of community structure, faunal 

recolonization, and a plethora of related response variables. Although some ecosystem responses are correlated 

with measures of fire or burn severity, many important ecosystem processes have either not been demonstrated 

to be predicted by severity indices or have been shown in some vegetation types to be unrelated to severity. This 

is a critical issue because fire or burn severity are readily measurable parameters, both on the ground and with 

remote sensing, yet ecosystem responses are of most interest to resource managers. 

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Volume 18 

Issue 1 

Pages 116–126 



DOI 10.1071/WF07049 

ISSN 1049-8001 

Short Title Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity 


Extra Keywords: BAER; dNBR Landsat Thematic Mapper; soil burn severity. 



Fire management and policy since European settlement (Chapter 18) 

Notes: 

Citation: 



Author Neil G. Sugihara 

Abstract Fire is both an integral natural process in the California landscape and growing threat to its urban and suburban 

developments as they encroach on wildlands. Written by many of the foremost authorities on the subject, this 

comprehensive volume, an ideal text and authoritative reference tool, is the first to synthesize our knowledge of 

the science, ecology, and management of fire in California. Part I introduces the basics of fire ecology. It 

includes an historical overview of fire, vegetation, and climate in California; overviews of fire as a physical and 

ecological process; and reviews the interactions between fire and the physical, plant, and animal components of 

the environment. Part II explores the history and ecology of fire in each of California's nine bioregions. Part III 

examines fire management in California, including both Native American and post-European settlement; 

discusses current issues related to fire policy and management, including air quality, watershed management, 

invasive plant species, native species, and fuel management; and considers the future of fire management. Fire 

is both an integral natural process in the California landscape and growing threat to its urban and suburban 

developments as they encroach on wildlands. Written by many of the foremost authorities on the subject, this 

comprehensive volume, an ideal text and authoritative reference tool, is the first to synthesize our knowledge of 

the science, ecology, and management of fire in California. Part I introduces the basics of fire ecology. It 

includes an historical overview of fire, vegetation, and climate in California; overviews of fire as a physical and 

ecological process; and reviews the interactions between fire and the physical, plant, and animal components of 

the environment. Part II explores the history and ecology of fire in each of California's nine bioregions. Part III 

examines fire management in California, including both Native American and post-European settlement; 

discusses current issues related to fire policy and management, including air quality, watershed management, 

invasive plant species, native species, and fuel management; and considers the future of fire management. 

Book Title Fire in California’s ecosystems 


Publisher University of California Press, Berkeley 

Date 2006 

Pages 431–443 

ISBN 0520246055, 9780520246058 

URL http://nature.berkeley.edu/stephens-lab/Publications 

/Stephens%20Sug.%20AFE%20fire%20Book%20Policy%209-06.pdf 

Archive http://nature.berkeley.edu/stephens-lab/Articles.htm 



Stephens, S.L., Sugihara, N.G., 2006. Fire management and policy since European settlement. In: Sugihara, NG, van Wagtendonk, J, 

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Shaffer, KE , Fites-Kaufman, J, , Thode, AE, editors. Fire in California’s ecosystems. California: University of California Press. 

Berkeley. pp. 431-443. 

Fire management of California shrubland landscapes 



Abstract Fire management of California shrublands has been heavily influenced by policies designed for coniferous 

forests, however, fire suppression has not effectively excluded fire from chaparral and coastal sage scrub 

landscapes and catastrophic wildfires are not the result of unnatural fuel accumulation. There is no evidence 

that prescribed burning in these shrublands provides any resource benefit and in some areas may negatively 

impact shrublands by increasing fire frequency. Therefore, fire hazard reduction is the primary justification for 

prescription burning, but it is doubtful that rotational burning to create landscape age mosaics is a cost effective 

method of controlling catastrophic wildfires. There are problems with prescription burning in this crown-fire 

ecosystem that are not shared by forests with a natural surface-fire regime. Prescription weather conditions 

preclude burning at rotation intervals sufficient to effect the control of fires ignited under severe weather 

conditions. Fire management should focus on strategic placement of prescription burns to both insure the most 

efficient fire hazard reduction and to minimize the amount of landscape exposed to unnaturally high fire 

frequency. A major contributor to increased fire suppression costs and increased loss of property and lives is the 

continued urban sprawl into wildlands naturally subjected to high intensity crown fires. Differences in shrubland 

fire history suggest there may be a need for different fire management tactics between central coastal and 

southern California. Much less is known about shrubland fire history in the Sierra Nevada foothills and interior 

North Coast Ranges, and thus it would be prudent to not transfer these ideas too broadly across the range of 

chaparral until we have a clearer understanding of the extent of regional variation in shrubland fire regimes. 


Volume 29 

Issue 3 

Pages 395–408 



DOI 10.1007/s00267-001-0034-Y 

ISSN 1432-1009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/r5frxtumwrbkt1cv/ 

Extra Keywords: buffer zones; chaparral; ecosystem management; fire management; fuel breaks; prescription burning. 



Fire on the edge: Prehistoric fire along the escarpment zone of the Cumberland Plateau 


Author Cecil R. Ison 

Abstract Unlike many areas of the United States, anthropogenic fires are the prime agent for affecting changes in plant 

and animal species composition in the southern Appalachian Highlands. Although the extensive use of fire by 

the American Indians has been recognized from the earliest European observers, it is somewhat difficult to 

determine the impact prehistoric fires had on forest structure. By examining the fossil and charcoal record from 

Cliff Palace Pond with the archaeological record recovered from nearby prehistoric sites, a 9,500-year record of 

the vegetational development can be established for the escarpment zone of Eastern Kentucky. This record 

indicates that anthropogenic fires played a central role in shaping the forest structure, especially after the 

transition from a hunting and gathering economy to one based on swidden agricultural practices. 


Proceedings Title Proceedings: Workshop on Fire, People, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape 

Conference Name Fire, People, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape, Richmond, Kentucky, March 12-14, 2000 


Publisher United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

Pages 36-45 

Series General Technical Report NE-274 

Short Title Fire on the edge 



Extra Keywords: native burning; prescribed fire; prescribed burning; oak; mixed-oak; oakhickory; barrens; 

ridgetop-pine; soil microbes; rare plants. 



Ison, Cecil 2000. Fire on the Edge: Prehistoric Fire Along the Escarpment Zone of the Cumberland Plateau. In: Yaussy, Daniel A., 

comp. 2000. Proceedings: workshop on fire, people, and the central hardwoods landscape; 2000 March 12-14; Richmond, KY. Gen. 

Tech. Rep. NE-274. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station: pp.36-45. 

Fire parameterization on a global scale 


Author Olga Pechony 


Abstract We present a convenient physically based global-scale fire parameterization algorithm for global climate models. 

We indicate environmental conditions favorable for fire occurrence based on calculation of the vapor pressure 

deficit as a function of location and time. Two ignition models are used. One assumes ubiquitous ignition, the 

other incorporates natural and anthropogenic sources, as well as anthropogenic fire suppression. Evaluation of 

the method using Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation, National Centers for Environmental 

Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research temperature and relative humidity, and Moderate 

Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index as a proxy for global vegetation density gives 

results in remarkable correspondence with global fire patterns observed from the MODIS and Visible and 

Infrared Scanner satellite instruments. The parameterized fires successfully reproduce the spatial distribution of 

global fires as well as the seasonal variability. The interannual variability of global fire activity derived from the 

20-year advanced very high resolution radiometer record are well reproduced using Goddard Institute for Space 

Studies general circulation models climate simulations, as is the response to the climate changes following the 

eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo. In conjunction with climate models and data sets on vegetation 

changes with time, the suggested fire parameterization offers the possibility to estimate relative variations of 

global fire activity for past and future climates. 


Volume 114 

Issue 16 

Pages D16115 (10 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009JD011927 

ISSN 0148-0227 


Extra Keywords: global fire parameterization; flammability; global climate models. 



Fire recurrence in the subarctic and its implications for vegetation composition 

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Abstract The Weibull distribution is shown to fit well with empirical data of fire intervals for a population of sites. The 

distribution demonstrates that the recurrence of fire in the subarctic forests of the Northwest Territories, 

Canada, is predictable. The three parameters of the distribution describe in ecological terms the lag before 

reburning can occur, the expected recurrence time of fire, and the shape of the variation around the expected 

recurrence. The parameters behave consistently with logically independent empirical evidence related to the 

regional and local climate and topography. The relationship of the distribution's hazard of burning function to 

vegetation composition and r–K selection is discussed. 

Publication Canadian Journal of Botany 

Volume 57 

Issue 12 

Pages 1374-1379 


Journal Abbr Can. J. Bot. 

DOI 10.1139/b79-171 

ISSN 1480-3305 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/b79-171 



Fire regime in a conservation reserve in Chihuahua, Mexico 



Author José Villanueva-Díaz 

Author Mauro Ramos-Gómez 

Abstract Fire regime characteristics were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees in the Tutuaca reserve, a newly designated 

protected area in the Sierra Madre Occidental of western Chihuahua. The reserve was created to protect thickbilled 

parrot nesting habitat (large snags) and a relict forest of Chihuahua spruce (Picea chihuahuana Martínez). 

We collected fire-scarred samples from conifers (Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb., Pinus durangensis Martínez, and 

Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in three 25-ha sites arrayed at different watershed positions, from a low 

site adjacent to the spruce trees up to the watershed divide. Fire analysis periods began in 1702, 1704, or 1761 

and continued through the final fire in 1955 (two sites) or 1995. All sites had frequent fire regimes (mean fire 

interval (MFI) 3.9-5.2 years; MFI for years in which 25% or more of the samples were scarred: 6.9-8.4 years). 

Almost all fires occurred before cambial growth began or early during the season of cambial growth. Fire years 

were significantly dry, and the years immediately preceding fire were significantly wet. After 1955, no further 

fires occurred at two of the three study sites, a pattern similar to that observed elsewhere in northern Mexico. 

The third site had fires in 1987 and 1995. The extended fire-free period in portions of the Tutuaca landscape 

may result in fuel accumulation and eventually in severe wildfire. For effective conservation of fire-susceptible 

habitat features, managers should seek to incorporate surface fire as a management tool. 


Volume 35 

Issue 2 

Pages 320–330 



DOI 10.1139/x04-173 

ISSN 1208-6037 


Extra Keywords: Chihuahua; fire regime; Mexico; MFI - mean fire interval; Tutuaca reserve. 



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Fire regime in red pine stands at the northern limit of the species' range 



Author Jacques Brisson 

Abstract In order to define more precisely the fire regime prevailing in red pine stands, and to evaluate its effect on the 

maintenance of marginal populations in the boreal forest, we documented the frequency, extent, and intensity of 

fires that affected red pine populations in northwest Quebec. We focused on two islands in Lake Duparquet, 

divided the islands into 5 x 5 m plots, and recorded topography, soil moisture, and vegetation for each plot. We 

mapped stems and noted fire scars, took core samples and stem cross sections to determine the age of trees, and 

used fire scars, post-fire regeneration, surviving trees, and changes in growth rates as indications of fire passage 

and intensity. Fire frequency was also estimated using fire history data from 13 other stands. Before 1906 the 

fire regime was characterized by: (1) a short but very irregular fire interval averaging ≈30 yr, (2) a large 

variation in burned area, including patches that were generally left unburned, (3) a low fire intensity, although 

some fires were locally very intense, and (4) the occurrence, roughly every 68 yr, of fires of sufficient intensity 

to kill most trees on the entire island. Since 1906 the frequncy of fire has decreased dramatically. The fire 

regime appears to be controlled by abiotic conditions. The high-frequency fires of variable intensity primarily 

affect the xeric habitats. The less frequent, intense (possibly crown) fires that affect the entire island may 

depend on stand development from a less susceptible pine and hardwood forest towards a more typical 

spruce-fir boreal forest in more mesic habitats. The fire regime described for these insular stands at the limit of 

species range is similar to that described for other parts of the range of red pine. We hypothesize that red pine is 

restricted to insular habitats at this northern limit of its range because of the particular fire regime that prevails 

there; the larger and more intense fires of the mainland here led to the elimination of the species. 


Volume 71 

Issue 4 

Pages 1352–1364 



ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: boreal forest; firefrequency; fire intensity; fire regime; insular habitats; lake landscape; marginal 

population; northern limit; northwest Quebec; Pinus resinosa; red pine regeneration; tree species distribution. 



Fire regime, fire intensity and tree survival in a tropical savanna in northern Australia 


Author Richard J. Williams 

Author Garry D. Cook 


Author Peter H. R. Moore 

Abstract Dry season fires are a feature of the tropical savannas of northern Australia. As part of a landscape-scale fire 

experiment, we examined the effects of fire regimes on tree survival in a tropical savanna in Kakadu National 

Park, northern Australia. The fire regimes were annual early dry season (June) fires, annual late dry season 

(September) fires, and, no fire (control). Prescriptive, experimental fires were lit annually, between 1990 and 

1994, in replicate compartments, each 15–20 km². In addition to the prescribed fires, however, one of the 

control compartments, which had been unburnt for seven years, was burnt by an unplanned, high intensity fire 

(~ 20 000 kW m⁻¹) in September 1994. This provided an opportunity to compare the impacts on the tree stratum 

of frequent, prescribed burning at various intensities, and a single unplanned fire. In all fire regimes, stem 

survival was substantially lower than whole-plant survival, and decreased linearly with increasing fire intensity. 

Significantly, stem death following the single, high intensity 20 000 kWm⁻¹ fire (75%) was comparable to that of 

a regime of annual late dry season burning for five years, at an average intensity of c. 8000 kWm⁻¹. In the high 

intensity unplanned fire, stem survival showed a non-linear response to stem size, being least in the small (< 10 

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cm DBH) and large (> 40 cm DBH) size classes, and highest in the intermediate size classes. Stem survival was 

also species-dependent, being higher in the dominant Eucalyptus miniata than in the subdominant, broad-leaf 

deciduous trees. In the absence of fire for 5–10 years, the structure and composition of the tree stratum of these 

savannas tends to become more complex than in sites burnt more frequently, especially by high intensity fire. 

Such a long-term absence of fire may be a conservation objective for some areas of savanna. However, build-up 

of fuel to near maximal levels can occur in 2–4 years without fire. This may predispose the savannas to 

high-intensity, late dry season fires. Whatever the fire-management goal within a given patch of savanna, 

whether it be the prescribed use of fire on a biennial basis, or the exclusion of fire at a semidecadal scale, 

careful attention still needs to be given to the consequences of fuel build-up in fire-excluded sites. 

Publication Australian Journal of Ecology 

Volume 24 

Issue 1 

Pages 50–59 


Journal Abbr Aust. J. Ecol. 

DOI 10.1046/j.1442-9993.1999.00946.x 

ISSN 1442-9993 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1442-9993.1999.00946.x/abstract 

Extra Keywords: conservation; fuel; GLM; Kapalga; Kakadu National Park; prescribed fire; tree mortality; unplanned 

fire; wet–dry tropics. 



Fire regimes and approaches for determining fire history 



Abstract Fire has been an important evolutionary influence in forests, affecting species composition, structure, and 

functional aspects of forest biology. Restoration of wildland forests of the future will depend in part on restoring 

fire to an appropriate role in forest ecosystems. This may include the "range of natural variability" or other 

concepts associated with fire as a disturbance factor. Yet fire on the forested landscape has not been a constant 

in either space or time. Its frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent, and other characters - collectively know as a 

fire regime-varied considerably across western forest landscapes. A series of techniques can be used to 

understand this history, and accurate interpretation depends on using the best fire history technique for a given 

fire regime. The following synopsis of these techniques is based on a more detailed explanation provided in 

Agee (1993). 


Proceedings Title The Use of Fire in Forest Restoration 

Conference Name 1995 Annual Meeting of the Society for Ecological Restoration 

Place University of Washington, Seattle, September 14-16, 1995. 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station: Ogden, UT 

Pages 12–13 

Series General Technical Report INT-341 


Extra Keywords: fire ecology; fire regimes; forest restoration; fire history. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Agee, James K. 1996. Fire regimes and approaches for determining fire history. In: Hardy, Colin C.; Arno, Stephen F., eds. The use 

of fire in forest restoration. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-341. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain 

Research Station. p. 12-13. 

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In: Hardy, Colin C.; Arno, Stephen F., eds. 1996. The use of fire in forest restoration. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-341. Ogden, UT: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. ----- The 26 papers in this document address the current 

knowledge of fire as a disturbance agent, fire history and fire regimes, applications of prescribed fire for ecological restoration, and the 

effects of fire on the various forested ecosystems of the north-western United States. The main body of this document is organized in 

three sections: Assessing Needs for Fire in Restoration; Restoration of Fire in Inland Forests; and Restoration in Pacific Westside 

Forests. 

Related 

The seminal importance of fire in ecosystem management-impetus for this publication 

Fire regimes and ecoregions (Chapter 2) 



Abstract Introduction: The public land management agencies are phasing in a radically new approach to land 

management. They are shifting from their focus on individual resources to a more holistic approach of managing 

whole ecosystems. Fire-excluded systems are prone to changes in composition and density and are susceptible 

to catastrophic fire and invasion by non-native species. The cause of the problem in many areas includes more 

than a century of fire exclusion and suppression along with increased human development at the wildland-urban 

interface. Grazing and logging have also contributed to this problem. To correct this problem, fire and land 

management must return ecosystems to a healthier, sustainable condition. One way to do this is to modify the 

current structure of ecosystems to mimic natural structures (Bailey 2002). 

Report Number RMRS-GTR-231 


Series Title Cumulative watershed effects of fuel management in the western United States 


Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station 


Pages 7-18 

URL http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/contents/34301 

Extra Keywords: cumulative effects; watershed; wildfire; fuel management; water quality; soil erosion. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Bailey, Robert G. 2010. Fire regimes and ecoregions. In: Elliot, William J.; Miller, Ina Sue; Audin, Lisa, eds. Cumulative watershed 

effects of fuel management in the western United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-231. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 7-18. 

Fire regimes and ecosystem properties 


Contributor Harold A. Mooney 

Contributor Thomas M. Bonnicksen 

Contributor Norman L. Christensen 

Contributor J. E. Lotan 

Contributor W. A. Reiners 

Report Number GTR-WO-26 

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Institution USDA Forest Service 


Pages 594 p. 

URL http://lccn.loc.gov/81603157 

Extra http://frames.nacse.org/2000/2769.html 



Fire regimes and forest changes in mid and upper montane forests of the southern Cascades, Lassen 

Volcanic National Park, California, USA 



Abstract • Aim: Spatial and temporal variation in fire regime parameters and forest structure were assessed. • Location: A 

2630-ha area of mid- and upper montane forest in Lassen Volcanic National Park (LVNP). • Methods: Two 

hypotheses were tested concerned with fire-vegetation relationships in southern Cascades forests: (1) fire 

regime parameters (return interval, season of burn, fire size, rotation period) vary by forest dominant, elevation 

and slope aspect; and (2) fire exclusion since 1905 has caused forest structural and compositional changes in 

both mid- and upper montane forests. The implications of the study for national park management are also 

discussed. • Results: Fire regime parameters varied by forest compositional group and elevation in LVNP. 

Median composite and point fire return intervals were shorter in low elevation Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi) (JP) 

(4–6 years, 16 years) and Jeffrey pine–white fir (Abies concolor) (JP-WF) (5–10 years, 22 years) and longer in 

high elevation red fir (Abies magnifica)— western white pine (Pinus monticola) (RF-WWP) forests (9–27 years, 

70 years). Median fire return intervals were also shorter on east-facing (6–9 years, 16.3 years) and longer on 

south- (11 years, 32.5 years) and west-facing slopes (22–28 years, 54-years) in all forests and in each forest 

composition group. Spatial patterns in fire rotation length were the same as those for fire return intervals. More 

growing season fires also occurred in JP (33.1%) and JP-WF (17.5%) than in RF-WWP (1.1%) forests. A 

dramatic decline in fire frequency occurred in all forests after 1905. • Conclusions: Changes in forest structure 

and composition occurred in both mid- and upper montane forests due to twentieth-century fire exclusion. 

Forest density increased in JP and JP-WF forests and white fir increased in JP-WF forests and is now replacing 

Jeffrey pine. Forest density only increased in some RF-WWP stands, but not others. Resource managers 

restoring fire to these now denser forests need to burn larger areas if fire is going to play its pre-settlement role 

in montane forest dynamics. 


Volume 27 

Issue 1 

Pages 87–104 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00353.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 


Extra Keywords: fire regimes; forest change; California; dendroecology; disturbance; montane forests. 



Fire regimes for pine-grassland communities in the southeastern United States 



Author David L. White 

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Author Steven M. Jones 

Abstract Four combinations of season and frequency of burning were applied in Coastal Plain loblolly pine stands over a 

43-year period. Overstory species composition and growth were unaffected by treatment. Above-ground 

portions of small hardwoods (less than 12.5 cm d.b.h.) were killed and replaced by numerous sprouts under 

periodic summer, periodic winter, and annual winter burning regimes. With annual summer burning, small 

hardwoods and shrubs were killed and replaced by vegetation typical of grassland communities. Grasses and 

forbs also dominated the understory of annual winter burns but numerous hardwood sprouts survived. Study 

results emphasize that frequent burning over a long period is needed to create and maintain the pine-grassland 

community observed by the first European settlers of the southeast. 


Volume 47 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 195-210 



DOI 10.1016/0378-1127(92)90274-D 

ISSN 0378-1127 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6X-491598R-BR/2/abad7379a7188e1f9a1a221f64d0bd30 



Fire regimes in southeastern ecosystems 




Proceedings Title Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties Proceedings of the Conference 

Conference Name Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties Proceedings of the Conference : December 11-15, 1978, Honolulu, 

Hawaii 


Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service 

Pages 112-136 

Series General technical report WO-26 

URL http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/literatr/firewild/bib/040.htm 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Christensen, Norman L. 1981. Fire regimes in southeastern ecosystems. In: Mooney, H. A.; Bonnicksen, T. M.; Christensen, N. L.; 

Lotan J. E.; Reiners W. A., editors. Fire regimes and ecosystem properties: Proceedings of the conference; 1978 December 11-15; 

Honolulu, HI.General Technical Report WO-26. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: 112-136. 

Fire regimes in the interior Columbia River basin: Past and present 


Author Penelope Morgan 

Author Stephen C. Bunting 

Author Anne E. Black 

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Author Troy Merrill 

Author Steven Barrett 

Abstract We mapped and compared historical (circa 1900) and current (circa 1990) fire regimes for the Interior Columbia 

River Basin. Fiie regime classes were based upon fire frequency (the mean number of years between successive 

tires) and severity (the fires’ effects on the dominant overstory species) of fires. Fiie regimes were assigned to 

all forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland vegetation types within the Interior Columbia River Basin. Fire 

regime classes were assigned based upon dominant vegetation types for each of four diierent biophysicai 

settings: cold & dry, cold & wet, warm & dry, and warm & wet. One set of decision rules was developed for 

historical vegetation. A separate set of decision rules was developed for current fire regimes to reflect the 

influence of fire suppression, invasion of exotic plant species, and other human activities. Decision rules were 

developed based upon published literature, a fire history data base and expert opinion. The coarse-scale maps 

(1:250,000 map scale. 1 km2 resolution) were produced in ARC/INFO format. The maps were judged 

reasonably accurate when compared to fire history data and when they were evaluated by local experts, but 

accuracy varied geographically. Current fires occur less frequently and are more severe than historical fires. 

Nonlethal fires are currently much less common than they were historically (32% vs. 20% of alI pixels). Mixed 

fire regimes were historically less extensive (16% of all pixels) than they are currently (30% of all pixels) 

extensive. Stand-replacing fires dominate the landscape, both historically (5 1% of all pixels) and currently 

(48% of all pixels). For alI severity classes combined, very frequent fires (those occurring every O-25 years) 

were more common historically than currently (28% and 6% of all pixels, respectively). Frequent fires (those 

occurring every 26-75 years) are also less common now than historically (42% and 18% of all pixels, 

respectively). Fire frequency has not changed where fires occurred very infrequently (every 15 l-300 years), 

extremely infrequently (every 300 years or more) or rarely, but this occurs on less than 10% of the pixels in the 

entire Interior’Columbia River Basin. 

Report Number RJVA-INT-94913 

Place Missoula, MT. 

Institution USDA Forest Service Intermountain Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula 


Pages 37 p. 

Short Title Fire regimes in the interior Columbia River Basin 

URL www.icbemp.gov/science/morgan.pdf 

Archive http://www.icbemp.gov/ 

Loc. in Archive the Archive of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP) 

Extra Final report for RJVA-INT-949413: Coarse scale classification and mapping of disturbance regimes in the 

Columbia River basin 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Morgan, P., S. C. Bunting, A. E. Black, T. Merrill, and S. Barrett. (1995). Fire regimes in the interior Columbia River basin: past and 

present. Final report for RJVA-INT-949413: Coarse scale classification and mapping of disturbance regimes in the Columbia River 

basin. On file at the USDA Forest Service Intermountain Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, 

Montana, USA. 

Fire regimes, forest change, and self-organization in an old-growth mixed-conifer forest, Yosemite 

National Park, USA 


Author Andrew E. Scholl 


Abstract Fire is recognized as a keystone process in dry mixed-conifer forests that have been altered by decades of fire 

suppression. Restoration of fire disturbance to these forests is a guiding principle of resource management in the 

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U.S. National Park Service. Policy implementation is often hindered by a poor understanding of forest 

conditions before fire exclusion, the characteristics of forest changes since excluding fire, and the influence of 

topographic or self-organizing controls on forest structure. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics 

of fire regimes and forest structure are reconstructed in a 2125-ha mixed-conifer forest. Forests were 

multi-aged, burned frequently at low severity and fire-return interval, and forest structure did not vary with 

slope aspect, elevation, or slope position. Fire exclusion has caused an increase in forest density and basal area 

and a compositional shift to shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant species. The median point fire-return interval and 

extent of a fire was 10 yr and 115 ha, respectively. The pre-Euro-American settlement fire rotation of 13 yr 

increased to 378 yr after 1905. The position of fire scars within tree rings indicates that 79% of fires burned in 

the midsummer to fall period. The spatial pattern of burns exhibited self-organizing behavior. Area burned was 

10-fold greater when an area had not been burned by the previous fire. Fires were frequent and widespread, but 

patches of similar aged trees were


Notes: 

Citation: 

Skinner, Carl N.; Chang, Chiru 1996. Fire regimes, past and present. In: Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project: Final report to Congress. 

Vol. II. Assessments and Scientific Basis for Management Options. Wildland Resources Center Report No. 37. Centers for Water and 

Wildland Resources, University of California, Davis. 1041-1069. 

Fire return intervals and fire cycles for historic fire regimes in the Great Lakes Region: A synthesis of 

the literature (Draft) 


Author Donald I. Dickmann 

Author David T. Cleland 


Report Type Great Lakes Ecological Assessment 

Place St. Paul, MN 

Institution US Forest Service, North Central Research Station 


Pages 21 p. 

Short Title Fire return intervals and fire cycles for historic fire regimes in the Great Lakes Region 

URL http://frames.nacse.org/0/590.html 

Archive http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/gla/reports.htm 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Dickmann, Donald I.; Cleland, David T. Draft 2002. Fire return intervals and fire cycles for historic fire regimes in the Great Lakes 

Region: a synthesis of the literature. Great Lakes Ecological Assessment. 21 p. 

Fire severity, changing scales, and how things hang together 


Author A. J. Simard 

Abstract The paper describes attributes of space, time, and process in terms of their relations to wildland fire. It then 

presents a generic framework, based on eight interrelated scale classes for space, time, and process. The effects 

of changing scales are discussed in a wildland fire context. A five-layered (society, management, systems, fire, 

and weather), three-dimensional structure for wildland fire is presented. The paper also discusses inefficiencies 

and inadequacies inherent in systems with inconsistent scales. It then focuses on the effects of scale differences 

between fire behavior and fire danger and on an acceptable scale range suggested by the natural evolution of 

these two systems. The paper then defines fire severity and proposes two types of severity models — situation 

and extended. Finally, it discusses fundamental differences between situational and extended severity and 

appropriate space, time, and process attributes for both types of severity models. 


Volume 1 

Issue 1 

Pages 23-34 

Date 1991 


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DOI 10.1071/WF9910023 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF9910023 



Fire weather and fire climate 


Author George W. Alexander 



Volume 58 

Issue 9 

Pages 370-372 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1930)582.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281930%2958%3C370%3AFWAFC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Fire weather index system componenets for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest 


Author Brian D. Amiro 







Abstract Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and head fire intensities were calculated for fires 

greater than 2 km² in size for the boreal and taiga ecozones of Canada from 1959 to 1999. The highest 

noon-hour values were analysed that occurred during the first 21 days of each of 9333 fires. Depending on 

ecozone, the means of the FWI System parameters ranged from: fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), 90 to 92 (82 

to 96 for individual fires); duff moisture code (DMC), 38 to 78 (10 to 140 for individual fires); drought code 

(DC), 210 to 372 (50 to 600 for individual fires); and fire weather index, 20 to 33 (5 to 60 for individual fires). 

Fine fuel moisture code decreased, DMC had a mid-season peak, and DC increased through the fire season. 

Mean head fire intensities ranged from 10 to 28 MW m⁻¹ in the boreal spruce fuel type, showing that most large 

fires exhibit crown fire behaviour. Intensities of individual fires can exceed 60 MW m⁻¹. Most FWI System 

parameters did not show trends over the 41-year period because of large inter-annual variability. A changing 

climate is expected to create future weather conditions more conducive to fire throughout much of Canada but 

clear changes have not yet occurred. 


Volume 13 

Issue 4 

Pages 391-400 



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DOI 10.1071/WF03066 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF03066 

Extra Keywords: drought; duff moisture; fire intensity; forest fire; seasonality; taiga; trends. 



Fire weather: A guide for application of meteorological information to forest fire control operations 

Notes: 

Citation: 

Type Book 


Author Charles C. Buck 

Abstract INTRODUCTION: What is WEATHER? Simply defined, it is the state of the atmosphere surrounding the earth. 

But the atmosphere is not static-it is constantly changing. So we can say that weather is concerned with the 

changing nature of the atmosphere. Familiar terms used to describe weather are Temperature Pressure Wind 

speed Wind direction Humidity Visibility Clouds Precipitation The atmosphere is a gaseous mantle encasing the 

earth and rotating with it in space. Heat from the sun causes continual changes in each of the above elements. 

These variations are interdependent; affecting all elements in such a manner that weather is ever changing in 

both time and space. Because weather is the state of the atmosphere, it follows that if there were no atmosphere 

there would be no weather. Such is the case on the moon. At high altitudes, where the earth's atmosphere 

becomes extremely thin, the type of weather familiar to us, with its clouds and precipitation, does not exist. The 

varying moods of the ever-changing weather found in the lower, denser atmosphere affect all of us. Sometimes 

it is violent, causing death and destruction in hurricanes, tornadoes, and blizzards. Sometimes it becomes balmy 

with sunny days and mild temperatures. And sometimes it is oppressive with high humidities and high 

temperatures. As the weather changes, we change our activities, sometimes taking advantage of it and at other 

times protecting ourselves and our property from it. A farmer needs to understand only that part of the shifting 

weather pattern affecting the earth's surface-and the crop he grows. The launcher of a space missile must know, 

from hour to hour, the interrelated changes in weather in the total height of the atmosphere, as far out as it is 

known to exist, in order to make his decisions for action. But the man whose interest is wildland fire is neither 

limited to the surface nor concerned with the whole of the earth's atmosphere. T he action he takes is guided by 

understanding and interpreting weather variations in the air layer up to 5 or 10 miles above the land. These 

variations, when described in ways related to their influences on wildland fire, constitute FIRE WEATHER. 

When fire weather is combined with the two other factors influencing fire behavior-topography and fuel – a 

basis for judgment is formed. 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service; Agriculture Handbook 360 

Date May 1970 


URL http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/barkbeetles/14/ 



Schroeder, M. and Buck, C. (1970). Fire weather : a guide for application of meteorological information to forest fire control 

operations. USDA Forest Service, Agriculture Handbook 360. 

Fire, native peoples, and the natural landscape 

Type Book 

Editor Thomas R. Vale 

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ISBN 9781559638890, 1-55963-888-5, 1-55963-889-3 

URL http://islandpress.org/bookstore/details5f0e.html? 

prod_id=928#toc 



Notes: 

Table Of Contents: 

Contents 

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables 

Preface 

Chapter 1. The Pre-European Landscape of the United States: Pristine or Humanized? 

Chapter 2. Indians and Fire in the Rocky Mountains: The Wilderness Hypothesis Renewed 

Chapter 3. Prehistoric Human Impacts on Fire Regimes and Vegetation in the Northern Intermountain West 

Chapter 4. Fire in the Pre-European Lowlands of the American Southwest 

Chapter 5. Lots of Lightning and Plenty of People: An Ecological History of Fire in the Upland Southwest 

Chapter 6. Prehistoric Burning in the Pacific Northwest: Human versus Climatic Influences 

Chapter 7. Fire in Sierra Nevada Forests: Evaluating the Ecological Impact of Burning by Native Americans 

Chapter 8. Pre-European Fire in California Chaparral 

Chapter 9. Reflections 

List of Contributors 

Index 

Fire-climate interactions in forests of the American Pacific coast 




Author Andrew M. Carleton 


Abstract We investigate relationships between climate and wildfire activity between 1929 and 2004 in Pacific coast 

forests of the United States. Self-Organizing Mapping (SOM) of annual area burned in National Forests (NF) in 

California, Oregon, and Washington identifies three contiguous NF groups and a fourth group of NF traversed 

by major highways. Large fire years in all groups are dry compared to small fire years. A sub-hemispheric 

circulation pattern of a strong trough over the North Pacific and a ridge over the West Coast is characteristic of 

large fire years in all groups. This pattern resembles the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection and 

positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A reverse PNA and negative PDO phase characterizes 

small fire years. Despite the effect of fire suppression management between 1929 and 2004, forest area burned 

is linked to climatic variations related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. 


Volume 33 

Issue 18 

Pages L18704 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2006GL027502 

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ISSN 0094–8276 

URL http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0618/2006GL027502/ 



Fire-fuel-climate linkages in the northwestern USA during the Holocene 





Abstract Variations in fire regimes can be inferred from changes in the abundance of sedimentary charcoal found in lake 

and bog sediments. When analysed with pollen data, inferences can be made about past vegetation dynamics 

and climate as well. The analysis of high-resolution charcoal records generally involves the decomposition of 

charcoal influx into (a) a slowly varying ‘background’ component that provides information about long-term 

changes in regional fire activity, biomass and/or depositional processes, and (b) a ‘peaks’ component that 

represents local fire events. In this study, 15 high-resolution charcoal records from the northwestern USA and 

associated pollen data were examined to describe the variations and controls of charcoal influx and background 

trends. Late-Holocene charcoal influx levels at each site were compared with late-Holocene sedimentation 

rates, vegetation and fire frequency, and with modern climate and physical site characteristics to better 

understand the spatial variability in charcoal abundance. Charcoal abundance was largely determined by 

physical site characteristics (eg, lake and watershed size) and the proportion of woody taxa. Background trends 

displayed regional similarities, and the subcontinental scale trend based on all records correlated closely with 

woody taxa proportions in the pollen spectra. Background charcoal and woody taxa proportions increased 

together from minima in the Late Glacial to maxima in the late Holocene. The strong similarity in these trends 

suggests that background charcoal influx is a function of fuel characteristics, which in turn are governed by 

climate and vegetation. Variations in sedimentation rate and fire frequency had little influence on background 

charcoal trends. 


Volume 16 

Issue 8 

Pages 1059-1071 



DOI 10.1177/0959683606069396 



Extra Keywords: fire history; fire frequency; fuel; climate; palaeofire; charcoal analysis; background charcoal; pollen; 

northwestern USA; Holocene. 



Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests 


Author Jennifer L. Pierce 


Author A. J. Timothy Jull 

Abstract Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope 

erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire 

suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring 

records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, lowseverity fires 

maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about AD 1500 and AD 1900 was also 

generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent 

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catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct 

Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate.We find that colder periods 

experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth.Warmer periods 

experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debrisflow events that comprise a large component 

of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our 

results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement 

times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires. 


Volume 432 

Issue 7013 

Pages 87-90 



DOI 10.1038/nature03058 

ISSN 1476-4687 




Fires and climate in forested landscapes of the US Rocky Mountains (Chapter 5) 






Volume 160 




Date 2003 

Pages 120–157 

ISBN 978-0-387-95455-4 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/n112363k1wh83lg3/ 



Fires and forest succession in the Bitterroot Mountains of northern Idaho 


Author Julius A. Larsen 



Volume 10 

Issue 1 

Pages 67–76 



DOI 10.2307/1940513 

ISSN 0012-9658 


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Firestick history 




Publication The Journal of American History 

Volume 76 

Issue 4 

Pages 1132-1141 


Journal Abbr J. Am. Hist. 

ISSN 1936-0967 




Flammable Australia: The fire regimes and biodiversity of a continent 

Notes: 

Contents: 

Type Book 

Editor Ross Andrew Bradstock 

Editor Jann E. Williams 

Editor Malcolm A. Gill 

Abstract Fire is pivotal to the functioning of ecosystems in Australia, affecting the distribution and abundance of the 

continentās unique and highly diverse range of plants and animals. Conservation of this natural biodiversity 

therefore requires a good understanding of scientific processes involved in the action of fire on the landscape. 

This book provides a synthesis of current knowledge in this area and its application in contemporary land 

management. Central to the discussion is an exploration of the concept of the fire regime - the cumulative 

pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity and season) - and its 

interactions with biodiversity. Contributions by thirty two leading experts cover a broad sweep of topics, 

including pre-history, future climate change, fire behaviour, modelling of temporal and spatial patterns, plant 

and animal life-cycles, case studies of major ecosystems, and management policies and systems. 

Edition illustrated 



Date 2002 


ISBN 0521805910 

Short Title Flammable Australia 

URL http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/1570054 



1. A history of fire in Australia / A. Peter Kershaw, et al 

2. Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia / Geoffrey J. Cary 

3. Fire properties and burn patterns in heterogeneous landscapes / Wendy Catchpole 

4. Fire regimes in landscapes: models and realities / Michael A. McCarthy and Geoffrey J. Cary 

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5. Critical life cycles of plants and animals: developing a process-based understanding of population changes in fire-prone 

landscapes / Robert J. Whelan, et al 

6. Spatial variability in fire regimes: its effects on recent and past vegetation / James S. Clark, et al 

7. Fire regimes in the spinifex landscapes of Australia / Grant E. Allan and Richard I. Southgate 

8. The role of fire regimes in temperate lowland grasslands of south-eastern Australia / Ian D. Lunt and John W. Morgan 

9. Fire regimes in Australian heathlands and their effects on plants and animals / David A. Keith, et al 

10. Fire regimes and biodiversity in semi-arid mallee ecosystems / Ross A. Bradstock and Janet S. Cohn 

11. Fire regimes in Acacia wooded landscapes: effects on functional processes and biological diversity / Ken C. Hodgkinson 

12. Fire regimes and biodiversity in the savannas of northern Australia / Richard J. Williams, et al 

13. Fire regimes and their effects in Australian temperate woodlands / Richard Hobbs 

14. Fire regimes and fire management of rainforest communities across northern Australia / Jeremy Russell-Smith and Peter 

Stanton 

15. Fire regimes and biodiversity of forested landscapes of southern Australia / A. Malcolm Gill and Peter C. Catling 

16. Fire regimes in semi-arid and tropical pastoral lands: managing biological diversity and ecosystem function / James C. Noble 

and Anthony C. Grice 

17. Fire management and biodiversity conservation: key approaches and principles / David A. Keith, et al 

18. Fire regimes and biodiversity: legacy and vision / A. Malcolm Gill, et al. 

Florida wildfire activity and atmospheric teleconnections 


Author Scott L. Goodrick 

Author Deborah E. Hanley 

Abstract Since 1991, the Florida Division of Forestry has been making seasonal fire severity forecasts based on a 

relationship between area burned in Florida and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study 

extends the original analysis on which these forecasts are based and attempts to augment it with the addition of 

other patterns of climate variability. Two atmospheric teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation 

and Pacific–North American pattern, are examined as potential indicators of seasonal and monthly area burned 

in Florida. Although ENSO was the only climate index to show a significant correlation to area burned in 

Florida, the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) is shown to be a factor influencing fire season severity 

although the relationship is not monotonic and therefore not revealed by correlation analysis. 


Volume 18 

Issue 4 

Pages 476-482 



DOI 10.1071/WF07034 

ISSN 1448-5516 




Forecasting resource-allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: Fire suppression with assessment of 

net benefits of research 


Author Jeffrey P. Prestemon 

Author Geoffrey H. Donovan 

Abstract Making input decisions under climate uncertainty often involves two-stage methods that use expensive and 

opaque transfer functions. This article describes an alternative, single-stage approach to such decisions using 

forecasting methods. The example shown is for preseason fire suppression resource contracting decisions faced 

by the United States Forest Service. Two-stage decision tools have been developed for these decisions, and we 

compare the expected gains to the agency, in terms of reduced personnel costs, of the single-stage model over 

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the two-stage model, existing hiring decisions, and decisions that would have been made given perfect foresight 

about wildfire activity. Our analysis demonstrates the potential gains to versions of our single-stage model over 

existing hiring decisions, equivalent to a benefit-cost ratio of 22. The research also identified additional gains 

accruing from imposing biases on the single-stage model, associated with asymmetric penalties from contracting 

decisions. 

Publication American Journal of Agricultural Economics 

Volume 90 

Issue 4 

Pages 1118–1129 


Journal Abbr Am. J. Agr. Econ. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01152.x 

ISSN 1467-8276 

Short Title Forecasting resource-allocation decisions under climate uncertainty 

URL http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/content/90/4/1118.full 

Extra Keywords: climate; forecast; forest service; Poisson; returns to research; wildfire suppression. 



Forest expansion and climate change in the Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) Zone, Lassen 

Volcanic National Park, California, USA 



Abstract The relationship between climate change and the dynamics of ecotonal populations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga 

mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) was determined by comparing climate and the age structure of trees from 24 plots 

and seedlings from 13 plots in the subalpine zone of Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Tree 

establishment was greatest during periods with above normal annual and summer temperatures, and normal or 

above normal precipitation. Seedling establishment was positively correlated with above normal annual and 

summer temperatures and negatively correlated with April snowpack depth. The different responses of trees and 

seedlings to precipitation variation is probably related to site soil moisture conditions. Mountain hemlock 

populations began to expand in 1842 and establishment increased dramatically after 1880 and peaked during a 

warm mesic period between 1895 and 1910. The onset of forest expansion coincides with warming that began at 

the end of the Little Ice Age (1850-1880). These data indicate that stability of the mountain hemlock ecotone is 

strongly influenced by climate. If warming induced by greenhouse gases does occur as climate models predict, 

then the structure and dynamics of near timberline forests in the Pacific Northwest will change. 

Publication Arctic and Alpine Research 

Volume 27 

Issue 3 

Pages 207–216 


Journal Abbr Arct. Alp. Res. 

ISSN 0004-0851 




Forest fire and climate change in western North America: Insights from sediment charcoal records 




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Author Susan J. Prichard 



Author Patrick Bartlein 


Abstract Millennial-scale records of forest fire provide important baseline information for ecosystem management, 

especially in regions with too few recent fires to describe the historical range of variability. Charcoal records 

from lake sediments and soil profiles are well suited for reconstructing the incidence of past fire and its 

relationship to changing climate and vegetation. We highlight several records from western North America and 

their relevance in reconstructing historical forest dynamics, fire–climate relationships, and feedbacks between 

vegetation and fire under climate change. Climatic effects on fire regimes are evident in many regions, but 

comparisons of paleofire records sometimes show a lack of synchrony, indicating that local factors substantially 

affect fire occurrence, even over long periods. Furthermore, the specific impacts of vegetation change on fire 

regimes vary among regions with different vegetation histories. By documenting the effects on fire patterns of 

major changes in climate and vegetation, paleo-fire records can be used to test the mechanistic models required 

for the prediction of future variations in fire. 


Volume 5 

Issue 9 

Pages 499-506 



DOI 10.1890/060161 

ISSN 1540-9295 

Short Title Forest fire and climate change in western North America 




Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands 



Abstract Nationally, the causes and extent of fire on lands administrated by the United States Forest Service varied 

significantly from 1940 to 2000, with California experiencing the largest relative annual burned areas. The 

south-east and California experienced the largest relative area burned by fires from human ignitions. No 

significant differences were detected in the relative area burned by lightning in California, the upper and central 

Rocky Mountains, and the south-west, which all experienced the highest levels. The north-west and Rocky 

Mountains have experienced significant increases in the relative total area burned; the north-east, south-east, 

California, and coastal Alaska all remained unchanged. The northern Rocky Mountains, south-west, and 

north-east have all experienced significant increases in the amount of area burned by lightning without 

significant increases in lightning ignitions. Increasing fuel hazards in these areas probably contributed to the 

increasing area burned by lightning fires; changing climate could have also contributed to the increase in 

wildfire area from 1940 to 2000. To be effective across the diverse forest types and conditions in the USA, fire 

policy should better recognize and respond to the diversity of US forests and how they have burned in the past. 

This analysis determined that there is high geographical diversity on wildfire occurrence and causes. Local input 

is therefore important in designing diverse, ground-based solutions to address fire management challenges in the 



Volume 14 

Issue 3 

Pages 213-222 


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DOI 10.1071/WF04006 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: fire policy; fire statistics; fire suppression; forest policy; wildfire. 



Forest fire cycles and life tables: A case study from interior Alaska 


Author John Yarie 

Abstract The negative exponential and Wiebull distributions were used to estimate stand survivorship curves for forested 

sites in the Porcupine River drainage of interior Alaska. The survivorship curve of Piceaglauca (Moench) Voss 

sites was best described by a Wiebull function, while both functions adequately described the Piceamariana 

(Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenburg hardwood and all sites stand survivorship curve. Fire cycles calculated 

from the Wiebull distribution were 43, 113, 36, and 26 years for the entire study area, P. glauca, P. mariana, and 

hardwood sites, respectively. Fire frequencies estimated from a life table analysis were 48, 105, 43, and 30 

years, respectively. The relationship between fire cycle and fire frequency calculations is discussed and various 

management implications are given. 


Volume 11 

Issue 3 

Pages 554–562 



DOI 10.1139/x81-076 

ISSN 0045-5067 

Short Title Forest fire cycles and life tables 




Forest fire history in the northern Rockies 



Abstract Recent fire-scar studies in the northern Rocky Mountains have documented forest fire history over the past few 

centuries. They reveal that in some forest types fire maintained many-aged open stands of seral trees. In other 

types, major fires caused replacement of the stands. Often, however, fires burned at variable intensities, creating 

a mosaic of stands differing in composition and structure. 


Volume 78 

Issue 8 

Pages 460-465 



ISSN 0022-1201 

URL http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/jof/1980/00000078/00000008/art00008 



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Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada 



Author Charles A. Nock 


Abstract The structure and function of the boreal forest are significantly influenced by forest fires. The ignition and 

growth of fires depend quite strongly on weather; thus, climate change can be expected to have a considerable 

impact on forest fire activity and hence the structure of the boreal forest. Forest fire occurrence is an extremely 

important element of fire activity as it defines the load on suppression resources a fire management agency will 

face. We used two general circulation models (GCMs) to develop projections of future fire occurrence across 

Canada. While fire numbers are projected to increase across all forested regions studied, the relative increase in 

number of fires varies regionally. Overall across Canada, our results from the Canadian Climate Centre GCM 

scenarios suggest an increase in fire occurrence of 25% by 2030 and 75% by the end of the 21st century. 

Results projected from fire climate scenarios derived from the Hadley Centre GCM suggest fire occurrence will 

increase by 140% by the end of this century. These general increases in fire occurrence across Canada agree 

with other regional and national studies of the impacts of climate change on fire activity. Thus, in the absence of 

large changes to current climatic trends, significant fire regime induced changes in the boreal forest ecosystem 

are likely. 


Volume 19 

Issue 3 

Pages 253-271 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1071/WF09002 

ISSN 1448-5516 




Forest fire protection (CRS Report for Congress) 


Author Ross W. Gorte 


Report Type CRS Report for Congress 

Place Washington, DC 

Institution Congressional Research Service 


Pages 29 p. 

URL www.cnie.org/nle/crsreports/forests/for-34.pdf 

Archive http://www.cnie.org/nle/crsreports/forests/ 

Extra CRS Code #: RL30755 



Forest fire weather in the southern Appalachians 


Author Edwin F. McCarthy 


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Volume 51 

Issue 4 

Pages 182-185 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1923)512.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281923%2951%3C182%3AFFWITS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Forest fires and climate change in the 21st century 







Abstract Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most 

important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. 

This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential 

direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more 

severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large 

spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to 

better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify 

vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for 

mitigation and adaptation. 


Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 847-859 



DOI 10.1007/s11027-005-9020-7 

ISSN 1381-2386 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/w21m250qh45675w0/ 

Extra Keywords: climate change; carbon; forest fires; GCMs; area burned. 



Forest fires: Their destructive work, causes and prevention 

Type Book 

Author William Willard Ashe 


Series North Carolina Geological survey, 1891-1925.: Bulletin 

Series Number Bulletin No. 7 

Publisher Raleigh, J. Daniels, State Printer and Binder 

Date 1895 

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Short Title Forest fires 

URL http://www.archive.org/details/forestfiresthei00ashegoog 



Forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in Canadian boreal forest fires 



Author Janet M. Pritchard 

Author Timothy J. Lynham 

Abstract In many forest types, over half of the total stand biomass is located in the forest floor. Carbon emissions during 

wildland fire are directly related to biomass (fuel) consumption. Consumption of forest floor fuel varies widely 

and is the greatest source of uncertainty in estimating total carbon emissions during fire. We used experimental 

burn data (59 burns, four fuel types) and wildfire data (69 plots, four fuel types) to develop a model of forest 

floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in nonpeatland standing-timber fuel types. The experimental burn 

and wildfire data sets were analyzed separately and combined by regression to provide fuel consumption 

models. Model variables differed among fuel types, but preburn fuel load, duff depth, bulk density, and 

Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System components at the time of burning were common significant 

variables. The regression R² values ranged from 0.206 to 0.980 (P < 0.001). The log–log model for all data 

combined explained 79.5% of the regression variation and is now being used to estimate annual carbon 

emissions from wildland fire. Forest floor carbon content at the wildfires ranged from 40.9% to 53.9%, and the 

carbon emission rate ranged from 0.29 to 2.43 kg·m⁻² 


Volume 39 

Issue 2 

Pages 367–382 



DOI 10.1139/X08-192 

ISSN 1208-6037 

URL http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/X08-192 



Forest management solutions for mitigating climate change in the United States 


Author Robert W. Malmsheimer 

Author Patrick Heffernan 

Author Steve Brink 

Author Douglas Crandall 

Author Fred Deneke 

Author Christopher Galik 

Author Edmund Gee 

Author John A. Helms 

Author Nathan McClure 

Author Michael Mortimer 

Author Steve Ruddell 

Author Matthew Smith 

Author John Stewart 

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Abstract Summary: [...] the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nabuurs et al. 2007, 543), the preeminent 

international body charged with periodically assessing technical knowledge or climate change, has stated, 

Forestry can make a very significant contribution to a low-cost mitigation portfolio that provides synergies with 

adaptation and sustainable development. Society at large, the US Congress, state legislators, and policy analysts 

at international, federal, and state levels must not only appreciate this fact but also recognize that the 

sustainable management of forests can, to a substantial degree, mitigate the dire effects of atmospheric pollution 

and global climate change. 


Volume 106 

Issue 3 

Pages 115–173 + 2 p. 

Date April/May 2008 


ISSN 0022-1201 


Archive http://ddr.nal.usda.gov/handle/10113/21386 



Forest processes and global environmental change: Predicting the effects of individual and multiple 

stressors 


Author John Aber 


Author Steve McNulty 



Author Raymond J. Drapek 

Abstract We review the effects of several rapidly changing environmental drivers on ecosystem function, discuss 

interactions among them, and predicted changes in productivity, carbon storage, and water balance 


Volume 51 

Issue 9 

Pages 735-751 


DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0735:FPAGEC]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0006-3568 

Short Title Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1641/0006-3568%282001%29051%5B0735%3Afpagec%5D2.0.co%3B2 



Forest resources of the United States, 1992 


Author Douglas S. Powell 

Author Joanne L. Faulkner 

Author David R. Darr 

Author Zhiliang Zhu 

Author Douglas W. MacCleery 

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Abstract The 1987 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment forest resources statistics are updated to 1992, to provide 

current information on the Nation's forests. Resource tables present estimates of forest area, volume, mortality, 

growth, removals, and timber products output. Resource data are analyzed, and trends since 1987 are noted. A 

forest type map produced from satellite imagery is included to provide a visual display of the location of forest 

land. 

Report Number GTR-RM-234 



Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 


Pages 132 p. + map 


Loc. in Archive http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_rm/rm_gtr234.html 

Extra Keywords: RPA; assessment; inventory; forest statistics; area; volume; forest history; AVHRR; map. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Powell, Douglas S.; Faulkner, Joanne L.; Darr, David R.; Zhu, Zhiliang; MacCleery,l Douglas W. 1993. Forest resources of the United 

States, 1992. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-234. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range 

Experiment Station. 132 p. + map. [Revised, June 1994]. 

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States 


Author A. Park Williams 





Author Christopher J. Still 

Author Steven W. Leavitt 

Abstract In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and 

increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 

populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to 

climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth 

equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States 

appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations 

to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, 

southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, 

mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent 

decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery 

and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area 

experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality 

associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area 

(excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected 

climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the 

Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage 

southwestern forests. 


Volume 107 

Issue 50 

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Pages 21289 -21294 

Date December 14 , 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0914211107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: forest mortality; climate change; drought; fire; tree rings. 



Forest Service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970-2002 


Author David E. Calkin 

Author Krista M. Gebert 

Author J. Greg Jones 


Abstract Extreme fire seasons in recent years and associated high suppression expenditures have brought about a chorus 

of calls for reform of federal firefighting structure and policy. Given the political nature of the topic, a critical 

review of past trends in area burned, size of fires, and suppression expenditures is warranted. We examined data 

relating to emergency wildland fire suppression expenditures, number of fires, and acres burned and developed 

statistical models to estimate area burned using drought indices for the USDA Forest Service from 1970–2002. 


Volume 103 

Issue 4 

Pages 179–183 



ISSN 0022-1201 


Extra Keywords: wildland fire; Forest Service suppression expenditure trends; Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). 



Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: Area burned and 

committed carbon emissions 


Author Ane Alencar 


Author Maria del Carmen Vera Diaz 

Abstract Understory fires, which burn the floor of standing forests, are one of the most important types of forest 

impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

episodes. However, the authors are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian 

Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. In this paper, the area of 

forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region is calculated during an El Niño (1998) and a non–El 

Niño (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and 

southern Amazonia, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both 

forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of 

forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to 

similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian 

Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a 

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clearing for the non-ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest 

burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 × 10⁶ ha) was 13 times greater 

than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 × 10⁶ ha), and twice the area of annual deforestation. 

Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest type most affected by understory fires during the El Niño year, 

while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. The estimate 

here of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.049 to 0.329 Pg during the ENSO and from 0.003 

to 0.021 Pg during the non-ENSO year. 


Volume 10 

Issue 6 

Pages 1–17 



DOI 10.1175/EI150.1 

ISSN 1087-3562 

Short Title Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/EI150.1 

Extra Keywords: understory fires; carbon emissions; ENSO. 



Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests 


Author Gordon B. Bonan 

Abstract The world’s forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary 

energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere 

interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation 

and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can 

enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative 

cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate 

forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under 

tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many 

interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand 

as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. 


Volume 320 

Issue 5882 

Pages 1444-1449 



DOI 10.1126/science.1155121 


Short Title Forests and climate change 




Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests 


Author G. B. Bonan 

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Abstract The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary 

energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere 

interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation 

and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can 

enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative 

cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate 

forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under 

tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many 

interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand 

as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. 


Volume 320 

Issue 5882 

Pages 1444-1449 

Date 06/2008 


DOI 10.1126/science.1155121 

ISSN 0036-8075 



Date Added Saturday, March 19, 2011 11:12:30 AM 


Attachments 

Bonan_Fig 1_Science_2008 .ppt 



Bonan_Figures_2008 

Bonan_Forests and Climate Change_Science_2008.pdf 

If A Tree Falls In The Forest, And No One Is Around To Hear It, Does Climate Change? 

Forests of the past: A window to future changes 


Author Rémy J. Petit 


Author Christopher W. Dick 

Abstract The study of past forest change provides a necessary historical context for evaluating the outcome of humaninduced 

climate change and biological invasions. Retrospective analyses based on fossil and genetic data greatly 

advance our understanding of tree colonization, adaptation, and extinction in response to past climatic change. 

For instance, these analyses reveal cryptic refugia near or north of continental ice sheets, leading to reevaluation 

of postglacial tree migration rates. Species extinctions appear to have occurred primarily during periods of high 

climatic variability. Transoceanic dispersal and colonization in the tropics were widespread at geological time 

scales, inconsistent with the idea that tropical forests are particularly resistant to biological invasions. 


Volume 320 

Issue 5882 

Pages 1450-1452 



DOI 10.1126/science.1155457 


277 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Short Title Forests of the past 




Fossil charcoal, its recognition and palaeoatmospheric significance 


Author Timothy P. Jones 

Author William G. Chaloner 

Abstract Charcoal is produced by pyrolysis of plant material and its occurrence in the fossil record can be broadly 

equated with the incidence of palaeowildfire. The past record of such naturally occurring fire, and tha 

availability of the biomass which represents its fuel, put two constraints on oxygen levels. For combustion of 

plant material to occur at all requires that the atmospheric oxygen did not drop below a threshold of 13%. 

Increasing inflammability of plant material at higher oxygen levels suggests that 35% would be a ceiling above 

which plant biomass would ignite and burn so readily as to be incompatible with sustained forest growth. As we 

have more or less continuous fossil evidence of forest trees from the Late Devonian onwards, and a similarly 

sustained record of fossil charcoal from that time to the present (Cope, 1984), this constraints oxygen levels 

between 13% and 35% over that period (Rabash and Langford, 1968; Watson et al., 1978). However, further 

experimental work is required to establish the validity of these oxygen values under appropriate conditions and 

also to sharpen the certainty by which we can discriminate between fusain produced by pyrolysis, and inert 

wood degradation products produced by other (? biogenic) means. We discuss experiments directed at 

attempting to establish the validity of physical parameters by which pyrolytically produced fusain can be 

characterized. The most convincing evidence of pyrolysis hitherto recognised is the apparent homogenization of 

xylem cell walls, as seen under SEM. Work on charcoal from both wildfires and laboratory wood charring under 

controlled conditions confirms the homogenization as seen under both SEM and TEM. Controlled temperature 

experiments show that a further rise in temperature causes the cell walls, initially homogenized, to crack and 

separate along the site of the middle lamella, giving the charcoal a characteristic fibrous texture. Both of these 

distinctive phases of response to pyrolysis can be observed in fossil charcoals. 


Volume 97 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 39–50 



DOI 10.1016/0031-0182(91)90180-Y 

ISSN 0031-0182 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003101829190180Y 



Four degrees and beyond: The potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its 

implications 


Author Mark New 

Author Diana Liverman 

Author Heike Schroeder 

Author Kevin Anderson 

Abstract The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing ‘dangerous 

anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is 

dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2°C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a 

‘guard rail’ below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen 

Accord recognized the scientific view ‘that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees 

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Celsius’ despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse 

gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have 

made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature 

rises of 3°C or 4°C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and 

consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an 

initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming 

is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors—coastal cities, agriculture, water 

stress, ecosystems, migration—the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some 

cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require 

transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and 

the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts argue for 

renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimize the chances of high-end 

climate change. Yet at the same time, there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves 

understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such 

changes might be and how best to adapt to what would be unprecedented changes in the world we live in. 


Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 6-19 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0303 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: climate change; global warming; impacts; adaptation; dangerous climate change; policy. 



Frequency of drought and severe fire weather in north-eastern Wisconsin 


Author Craig G. Lorimer 

Author William R. Gough 

Abstract A daily record of drought was calculated with the Keetch-Byram drought index from temperature and rainfall 

data for the period 1864-1979. Historic fire records indicate that most fires greater than 120 ha in size have 

occurred at levels exceeding the 80th percentile of 10-day mean drought index observations. Unusually large 

conflagrations, such as the Peshtigo Fire of 1871, occurred at levels at or exceeding, the 95th percentile on days 

with



Frequent fires in ancient shrub tundra: Implications of paleorecords for Arctic environmental change 




Author Patricia M. Anderson 

Author Thomas A. Brown 

Author Alison T. Kennedy 


Editor Jerome Chave 

Abstract Understanding feedbacks between terrestrial and atmospheric systems is vital for predicting the consequences of 

global change, particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. Fire is a key process in this context, but the 

consequences of altered fire regimes in tundra ecosystems are rarely considered, largely because tundra fires 

occur infrequently on the modern landscape. We present paleoecological data that indicate frequent tundra fires 

in northcentral Alaska between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago. Charcoal and pollen from lake sediments reveal 

that ancient birch-dominated shrub tundra burned as often as modern boreal forests in the region, every 144 

years on average (+/− 90 s.d.; n = 44). Although paleoclimate interpretations and data from modern tundra fires 

suggest that increased burning was aided by low effective moisture, vegetation cover clearly played a critical 

role in facilitating the paleofires by creating an abundance of fine fuels. These records suggest that greater fire 

activity will likely accompany temperature-related increases in shrub-dominated tundra predicted for the 21st 

century and beyond. Increased tundra burning will have broad impacts on physical and biological systems as 

well as on land-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic, including the potential to release stored organic carbon to 

the atmosphere. 

Publication PLoS ONE 

Volume 3 

Issue 3 

Pages e0001744 (7 p.) 


Journal Abbr PLoS ONE 

DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0001744 

ISSN 1932-6203 

Short Title Frequent Fires in Ancient Shrub Tundra 

URL http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001744 



From coastal wilderness to fruited plain: A history of environmental change in temperate North 

America, 1500 to the present 

Type Book 

Author Gordon G. Whitney 

Abstract Description From Coastal Wilderness to Fruited Plain is an account of the making of a large part of the 

American landscape following European settlement. Drawing upon land survey records and early travelers’ 

accounts, Dr Whitney reconstructs the ‘virgin’ forests and grasslands of the northeastern and central United 

States during the presettlement period. He then documents successively the clearance and fragmentation of the 

region’s woodlands, the harvest of the forest and its game, the ploughing of the prairies, and the draining of 

wetlands. The degree to which these activities altered the soil, climate, plant and animal communities, and water 

cycle are evaluated, and the sustainability of present-day ecosystems is brought into question in this unique 

account. (from: Cambridge University Press http://assets.cambridge.org/052157/658X/description 

/052157658X_description.htm) 


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Date September 1996 (1994: first published) 


ISBN 9780521576581 or 052139452X 

Short Title From coastal wilderness to fruited plain 

URL http://assets.cambridge.org/assets/bookpageresult.jsf? 

conversationId=10557638 



From the Cover: Rapid landscape transformation in South Island, New Zealand, following initial 

Polynesian settlement 


Author D. B. McWethy 

Author C. Whitlock 

Author J. M. Wilmshurst 

Author M. S. McGlone 

Author M. Fromont 

Author X. Li 

Author A. Dieffenbacher-Krall 

Author W. O. Hobbs 

Author S. C. Fritz 

Author E. R. Cook 


Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21343-21348 

Date 12/2010 

Journal Abbr Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1011801107 

ISSN 0027-8424 




Modified Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:26:19 PM 

Fuel moisture, forest type, and lightning-caused fire in Yellowstone National Park 


Author Roy A. Renkin 

Author Don G. Despain 

Abstract The occurrence and behavior of lightning-caused fires in Yellowstone National Park were summarized for 17 

years (1972–1988) during a prescribed natural fire program. Both ignition (occurrence) and spread (stand 

replacing fire activity) of fires were strongly influenced by fuel moisture and forest cover type. Fuel moisture 

estimates of 13% for large (>7.6 cm) dead and downed fuels indicated a threshold below which proportionately 

more fire starts and increased stand replacing fire activity were observed. During periods of suitable fuel 

moisture conditions, fire occurrence and activity were significantly greater than expected in old-growth, mixedcanopy 

lodgepole pine (Pinuscontorta Dougl. var. latifolia) and Engelmann spruce–subalpine fir 

(Piceaengelmannii Parry–Abieslasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forest types, and significantly less than expected in the 

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successional lodgepole pine forest types. During periods of extended low fuel moisture conditions (drought), 

sustained high winds significantly reduced the influence of forest cover type on stand replacing fire activity. 

These extreme weather conditions were observed during the later stages of the 1988 fire season, and to a lesser 

extent, for a short duration during the 1981 fire season. The Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco) 

forest type typically supported little stand replacing fire activity, even though a preponderance of fire starts was 

observed. 


Volume 22 

Issue 1 

Pages 37–45 



DOI 10.1139/x92-005 

ISSN 1208-6037 




Functional approaches to predicting the ecological effects of global change 



Author A. D. Diament 



Volume 5 

Issue 2 

Pages 202-212 

Date 1991 


DOI 10.2307/2389258 

ISSN 0269-8463 


Extra Keywords: climate change; fire; forest; grassland; microwave backscatter; saline soils; scaling; soil water; 

sound; transpiration. 



Fundamentals of physical geography 

Type Book 

Author Glenn T. Trewartha 

Author Arthur H. Robinson 

Author Edwin H. Hammond 

Abstract Introduction: The surface of the earth is a complicated combination of a great many things. Some of these are 

the natural features, such as the land, air, vegetation, soil, and water. Man lives within this complex natural 

environment, and, according to his interests and his knowledge, he takes it into account in planning and carrying 

out his activities. If a person travels over the earth, he will observe that the various physical features change 

from place to place: it is warmer here; it rains more often there; the land surface is relatively smooth in one 

place, mountainous in another; and so on. To appreciate and understand the character of the differences and 

similarities of the earth's surface from place to place, he must turn to the study of physical geography, the body 

of knowledge that deals with the description and interpretation of the physical features of the surface zone of 

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the earth. In general, the description and interpretation of the myriad interrelationships among the physical 

elements of the earth is properly called earth science. Earth science includes many fields of systematic 

investigation. Physical geography is the segment which studies the elements that man finds significant in his use 

of the earth; in this respect, physical geography is the study of man's natural environment. In particular it 

concentrates upon the manner in which the environment differs from place to place and upon the reasons for the 

differences. Man studying the earth has been likened to a curious ant upon a patterned rug. Because of the ant's 

diminutive size and limited range of vision it cannot easily comprehend the broad arrangements of the different 

colors. To develop a clear description and interpretation of the general pattern, the ant would need to employ 

several scientific techniques, such as careful observation, data reduction, the development of systematic 

classifications, and mapping. The physical earth is like a patterned rug, albeit a relatively large and complex one. 

But rather than being simply a uniform surface on which the only thing that changes from place to place is the 

color of the fibers, the earth's surface zone is made up of many different elements, ranging from air temperatures 

to the flatness of the land, each with its own more or less complex pattern. Through the scientific study of 

physical geography the student will become aware that there are both striking similarities and fundamental 

differences in the physical environment from place to place. He will learn of the great and important variations 

in the surface forms of the land, from the broad patterns of the continents to the smaller irregularities that 

complicate the local scene. He will come to appreciate the general character and movements of the great mass 

of water that not only floods the great depressions of the earth but also exists on and beneath the surface of the 

land. He will become acquainted with the nature and behavior of the atmospheric film which envelops the earth 

and acts as a transporting and distributing agent for life-giving energy and water. He will find also that the 

materials and forms of the earth's solid crust and the behavior of the gaseous envelope are all interrelated, and 

that they, together with organic life, combine to produce yet other patterns such as those of soils and natural 

vegetation. In fact he will find that the patterns of the several physical elements are all interrelated and that their 

spatial relationships are at once simple and complex. To study scientifically the elements of the physical 

environment, one must consider the physical processes involved in their interaction in place; this is necessary 

background for an understanding of the place to place variation of each physical element. One of the purposes 

of this book is, however, to focus attention, as much as is possible in a survey treatment, on the areal 

distributions and functional interrelationships of the physical elements over the earth's surface. In this it strives 

to emphasize the basic locational aspects of these matters. Thus the broad earth patterns of variation and their 

interrelationships are stressed, with less emphasis placed upon the mechanics of process independent of place. It 

is hoped that this will enable the student to obtain in a direct manner that appreciation of the earth as a physical 

environment without which he cannot be considered properly informed as a tenant. Although this briefer book 

has been organized and written afresh, much of its content is based upon materials in the more comprehensive 

Physical Elements of Geography by Finch, Trewartha, Robinson, and Hammond. The selection of materials has 

been made to fit a one-semester, one-quarter, or two-quarter introductory college survey course in the 

fundamentals of physical geography. In every case the degree of generalization has been kept at a high level, 

with the focus on general world patterns and their interrelationships. In some sections of this book a completely 

different approach has been taken from that in the earlier book, and recent materials have been included. A 

number of new illustrations have been prepared and procured, but many are taken from the larger book. The 

student and the instructor will note that there are no chapter outlines or review questions. It is the authors' 

opinion, and they feel it to be the judgment of many instructors, that to include such materials is to subvert an 

important part of the learning process. The good student finds them useless, and the mediocre student is likely to 

grasp them as straws without going through the essential learning process of formulating them for himself. For 

the student who wishes to range further, brief bibliographies are appended at appropriate places. The authors 

acknowledge a debt to both their colleagues and their former students. At the University of Wisconsin most of 

the physical science departments, among them the Department of Geography, offer one-semester survey courses 

as well as year-length courses. Each of the authors has taught the survey course in physical geography and by 

contact with the students has become familiar with the capabilities of those who take such a course with little or 

no background in the subject. Colleagues in the Department of Geography and in other departments of the earth 

sciences have been helpful in many ways. 

Series Mcgraw-Hill Series in Geography 


Place New York, Toronto, London 

Publisher McGraw-Hill Education 


# of Pages xii, 384 p. 

ISBN 9780070651838, 0070651833 

URL http://www.archive.org/details/fundamentalsofph032793mbp 

Extra 1st ed., 1961, 2nd ed., 1968, 3rd ed., 1977. 



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Fungal virulence at the time of the end-Permian biosphere crisis? 


Author Henk Visscher 

Author Mark A. Sephton 

Author Cindy V. Looy 

Abstract Throughout the world, latest Permian records of organic-walled microfossils are characterized by the common 

presence of remains of filamentous organisms, usually referred to the palynomorph genus Reduviasporonites. 

Although generally regarded as indicators of global ecological crisis, fundamental controversy still exists over 

the biological and ecological identity of the remains. Both fungal and algal affinities have been proposed. We 

seek to resolve this enigma by demonstrating close morphological similarity of the microfossils to resting 

structures (monilioid hyphae, sclerotia) of Rhizoctonia, a modern complex of soil-borne filamentous fungi that 

includes ubiquitous plant pathogens. By analogy with present-day forest decline, these findings suggest that 

fungal virulence may have been a significant contributing factor to widespread devastation of arboreal 

vegetation at the close of the Permian Period. 


Volume 39 

Issue 9 

Pages 883-886 



DOI 10.1130/G32178.1 

ISSN 0091-7613 

URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/doi/10.1130/G32178.1 



Future area burned in Canada 


Author Mike D. Flannigan 





Abstract Historical relationships between weather, the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system components and area 

burned in Canadian ecozones were analysed on a monthly basis in tandem with output from the Canadian and 

the Hadley Centre GCMs to project future area burned. Temperature and fuel moisture were the variables best 

related to historical monthly area burned with 36–64% of the variance explained depending on ecozone. Our 

results suggest significant increases in future area burned although there are large regional variations in fire 

activity. This was especially true for the Canadian GCM where some ecozones show little change in area 

burned, however area burned was not projected to decrease in any of the ecozones modelled. On average, area 

burned in Canada is projected to increase by 74–118% by the end of this century in a 3 × CO₂ scenario. These 

estimates do not explicitly take into account any changes in vegetation, ignitions, fire season length, and human 

activity (fire management and land use activities) that may influence area burned. However, the estimated 

increases in area burned would have significant ecological, economic and social impacts for Canada. 


Volume 72 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 1–16 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y 

ISSN 0165-0009 

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URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/3161071122103227/ 



Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a 

business-as-usual CO₂ emission scenario until year 4000 AD 


Author Andreas Schmittner 

Author Andreas Oschlies 

Author H. Damon Matthews 

Author Eric D. Galbraith 

Abstract A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully 

coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets 

from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during 

the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual 

scenario of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until 

year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO₂ increases to a peak of more than 

2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline 

to ~1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO₂ 

at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ~10°C, sea ice 

melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen 

concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column 

denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N₂O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic 

production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global 

ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in 

the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for 

possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean 

doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO₂. This represents a new positive feedback 

mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle 

on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon 

uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO₂ increase 

since the preindustrial era. 

Publication Global Biogeochemical Cycles 

Volume 22 

Pages GB1013 (21 p.) 


Journal Abbr Global Biogeochem. Cy. 

DOI 10.1029/2007GB002953 

ISSN 0886–6236 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007GB002953.shtml 

Extra Keywords: climate change; biogeochemical cycles; ecosystems. 



Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature 

extremes 


Author Erich M. Fischer 

Author Christoph Schär 

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Tags: 

wts 

Abstract Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer 

temperature extremes, not only due to the mean warming itself, but also due to changes in temperature 

variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyse daily output of ten PRUDENCE regional climate model scenarios 

over Europe for the 2071–2100 period. The models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly 

over the Mediterranean and the transitional climate zone (TCZ, between the Mediterranean to the south and the 

Baltic Sea to the north). The projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is 

found to be largest over France (in the region of maximum variability increase) rather than the Mediterranean 

(where the mean warming is largest). The underlying changes in temperature variability may arise from changes 

in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a 

methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over France and depending 

upon the model, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to significantly increase by 20–40% 

as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (30–95%), seasonal variability 

(35–105%), and intraseasonal variability (10–30%). Variability changes in northern and southern Europe are 

substantially smaller. Over France and parts of the TCZ, the models simulate a progressive warming within the 

summer season (corresponding to an increase in seasonal variability), with the projected temperature change in 

August exceeding that in June by 2–3 K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of 

the current seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period 

(enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). The processes driving the variability 

changes are different for the three components but generally relate to enhanced land–atmosphere coupling 

and/or increased variability of surface net radiation, accompanied by a strong reduction of cloudiness, 

atmospheric circulation changes and a progressive depletion of soil moisture within the summer season. The 

relative contribution of these processes differs substantially between models. 


Volume 33 

Issue 7-8 

Pages 917-935 

Date 10/2008 

Journal Abbr Clim Dyn 

DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8 

ISSN 0930-7575 



Date Added Friday, March 18, 2011 4:53:13 PM 


Attachments 

Fischer and Schar_Future changes in daily summer temperature variability_ClimDyn_2009.pdf 

Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: Driving processes and role for temperature 

extremes 




Abstract Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer 

temperature extremes, not only due to the mean warming itself, but also due to changes in temperature 

variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyse daily output of ten PRUDENCE regional climate model scenarios 

over Europe for the 2071–2100 period. The models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly 

over the Mediterranean and the transitional climate zone (TCZ, between the Mediterranean to the south and the 

Baltic Sea to the north). The projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is 

found to be largest over France (in the region of maximum variability increase) rather than the Mediterranean 

(where the mean warming is largest). The underlying changes in temperature variability may arise from changes 

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in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a 

methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over France and depending 

upon the model, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to significantly increase by 20–40% 

as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (30–95%), seasonal variability 

(35–105%), and intraseasonal variability (10–30%). Variability changes in northern and southern Europe are 

substantially smaller. Over France and parts of the TCZ, the models simulate a progressive warming within the 

summer season (corresponding to an increase in seasonal variability), with the projected temperature change in 

August exceeding that in June by 2–3 K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of 

the current seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period 

(enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). The processes driving the variability 

changes are different for the three components but generally relate to enhanced land–atmosphere coupling 

and/or increased variability of surface net radiation, accompanied by a strong reduction of cloudiness, 

atmospheric circulation changes and a progressive depletion of soil moisture within the summer season. The 

relative contribution of these processes differs substantially between models. 


Volume 33 

Issue 7-8 

Pages 917-935 



DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8 

ISSN 0930-7575 

Short Title Future changes in daily summer temperature variability 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/92110157jm1t6761/ 

Extra Keywords: variability; extreme events; heat wave. 



Future climate in the Pacific Northwest 


Author Philip W. Mote 

Author Eric P. Salathé Jr. 

Abstract Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 

(AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C 

(1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project 

increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 

3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. 

Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual 

precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal 

cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface 

temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal 

upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice 

sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8″) or as 

large as 1.3 m (50″). 


Volume 102 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 29-50 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/1785284724586k85/ 


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Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought 



Author Tapash Das 

Author David W. Pierce 


Author Mary Tyree 


Abstract Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of 

current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st 

century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any 

given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the 

region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st 

century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as 

judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the 

simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the 

historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted 

for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature 

also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by 

enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. 

As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model 

simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge. 


Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21271 -21276 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0912391107 

ISSN 1091-6490 


Extra Keywords: climate change; regional modeling; sustainability; water resources. 



Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño 


Author Michael J. McPhaden 

Abstract The 1997–98 El Niño was, by some measures, the strongest on record, with major climatic impacts felt around 

the world. A newly completed tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean observing system documented this El Niño 

from its rapid onset to its sudden demise in greater detail than was ever before possible. The unprecedented 

measurements challenge existing theories about El Niño–related climate swings and suggest why climate 

forecast models underpredicted the strength of the El Niño before its onset. 


Volume 283 

Issue 5404 

Pages 950-954 


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DOI 10.1126/science.283.5404.950 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Geographic and temporal variations in fire history in boreal ecosystems of Alaska 




Author Nancy H. F. French 


Author Bruce P. Finney 

Abstract Charcoal and pollen analyses were used to determine geographic and temporal patterns of fire importance in 

boreal forests of the Kenai Peninsula and interior Alaska. Sieved, large charcoal particles were measured in 

continuously sampled cores of Rock, Portage, and Arrow Lakes (Kenai Peninsula) and Dune and Deuce Lakes 

(interior Alaska) to estimate regional fire importance and fire occurrence. Charcoal accumulation rates have 

been low for the past 1000 years in both regions with slightly higher values in interior Alaska than on the Kenai 

Peninsula. An exception to this general pattern was the period of post-European settlement on the Kenai 

Peninsula, where charcoal accumulation rates increased by 10-fold. This increase most likely reflected 

increased fire occurrence due to human ignition. The Holocene charcoal and pollen records from Dune Lake 

indicate low fire occurrence during the early (9000 to 5500 calibrated year before present (yr BP)) birch-white 

spruce-alder (Betula-Picea glauca-Alnus) communities and high fire occurrence as black spruce (Picea mariana) 

became established after 5500 yr BP. Increased fires probably resulted from a change to fire-prone black spruce 

forests. For the past 5500 yr BP, two distinct fire regimes occurred. Frequent fires, with an average fire return 

interval of 98 years, characterized the period from 5500-2400 yr BP. Fewer fires, with an average fire interval 

of 198 years, characterized the period after 2400 yr BP. Fuel accumulation, stand structure, and vegetation 

species contributed to the natural variability in fire regimes during past changes in climate. 


Volume 108 

Issue D1 

Pages 8152 (17 p.) 

Date Decembe 2002 


DOI 10.1029/2001JD000332 

ISSN 0148–0227 


Extra Keywords: charcoal; pollen; fire; boreal. 



Geological Society of London - Climate change: Evidence from the geological record 

Type Web Page 

Author Geological Society of London 

Abstract The Geological Society has prepared a position statement on climate change, focusing specifically on the 

geological evidence. A drafting group was convened, with the aim of producing a clear and concise summation, 

accessible to a general audience, of the scientific certainties and uncertainties; as well as including references to 

further sources of information. 

Website Title The Geological Society - Climate Change 

Date 2010 

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URL http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/climatechange 

Rights The Geological Society of London 



Getting a better estimate of an atmospheric radical 


Author Ivar S. A. Isaksen 

Author Stig B. Dalsøren 

Abstract Better measures of how global levels of OH vary from year to year will improve climate science. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6013 

Pages 38-39 



DOI 10.1126/science.1199773 





Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO₂ emissions 


Author Michael R. Raupach 

Author Gregg Marland 


Author Corinne Le Quere 


Author Gernot Klepper 

Author Christopher B. Field 

Abstract CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with 

their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y⁻¹ for 1990–1999 to >3% y⁻¹ for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate 

since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation 

or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and 

the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and 

per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been 

recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The 

growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the 

developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of 

global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions 

since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity. 


Volume 104 

Issue 24 

Pages 10288-10293 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0700609104 

290 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: carbon intensity of economy; carbon intensity of energy; emissions scenarios; fossil fuels; Kaya 

identity. 



Global biodiversity scenarios for the Year 2100 


Author Osvaldo E. Sala 


Author Juan J. Armesto 

Author Eric Berlow 

Author Janine Bloomfield 

Author Rodolfo Dirzo 

Author Elisabeth Huber-Sanwald 

Author Laura F. Huenneke 

Author Robert B. Jackson 

Author Ann Kinzig 


Author David M. Lodge 

Author Harold A. Mooney 

Author Martıń Oesterheld 

Author N. LeRoy Poff 

Author Martin T. Sykes 

Author Brian H. Walker 

Author Marilyn Walker 

Author Diana H. Wall 

Abstract Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in 

atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these 

changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with 

respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change 

probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and 

elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. 

Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in 

biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate 

ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already 

occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of 

biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future 

biodiversity change. 


Volume 287 

Issue 5459 

Pages 1770-1774 



DOI 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770 

ISSN 1095-9203 




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Global change: Indirect feedbacks to rising CO₂ 


Author Alexander Knohl 

Author Edzo Veldkamp 

Abstract There have been many studies on the effects of enriched levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on soils. A 

meta-analysis shows that emissions of other greenhouse gases increase under high-CO₂ conditions. 


Volume 475 

Issue 7355 

Pages 177-178 



DOI 10.1038/475177a 

ISSN 1476-4687 

Short Title Global change 




Global climate change impacts in the United States 

Notes: 

Type Book 

Editor Thomas R. Karl 

Editor Jerry M. Melillo 

Editor Thomas C. Peterson 

Abstract Overview This book is the most comprehensive report to date on the wide range of impacts of climate change in 

the United States. It is written in plain language to better inform members of the public and policymakers. The 

report finds that global warming is unequivocal, primarily human-induced, and its impacts are already apparent 

in transportation, agriculture, health, and water and energy supplies. These impacts are expected to grow with 

continued climate change – the higher the levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the greater the impacts. The 

report illustrates how these impacts can be kept to a minimum if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. The 

choices we make now will determine the severity of climate change impacts in the future. This book will help 

citizens, business leaders, and policymakers at all levels to make informed decisions about responding to climate 

change and its impacts. • Likely to set the policy agenda across the US for the next few years • Features 

examples of actions currently being pursued in various regions to address climate change • Summarises in one 

place the current and projected affects of climate change in the United States 


Place Cambridge (England); New York 


Date 2009 


ISBN 0521144078, 9780521144070 

URL http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-assessments/global-climate-change-impactsin-the-us-2009 




Contents & Citation: 

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Contents: 

Executive summary; 1. National climate change; 2. Climate change impacts by sector; 3. Regional climate impacts; 4. An agenda for 

climate impacts science; 5. Concluding thoughts; Author team biographies; Primary sources of information; Acronyms; References; 

Photography credits. 

Citation: 

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge 

University Press, 2009. 

Global climate models and 'dynamic' vegetation changes 


Author Ann Henderson-Sellers 

Author Kendal McGuffie 

Abstract Models of global change must come to incorporate changes in terrestrial vegetation. Here we choose a 1- year 

meshing (coupling) period to link a global climate model to a well-known biophysical representation of the 

continental surface by means of eleven vegetation functional types. This coupled model is used to answer two 

questions: Can a 'standard' GCM 'cope' with sudden switches in continental characteristics?' and Does the 

climate 'care' about the changing underlying vegetation? We find affirmative answers to both questions. Our 

results also suggest that those content to generate vegetation post facto from climate output have incomplete 

results. 


Volume 1 

Issue 1 

Pages 63–75 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00007.x 

ISSN 1365-2486 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00007.x/abstract 

Extra Keywords: vegetation models; coupling to climate; global change; GCM; Holdridge. 



Global climate projections: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis (Chapter 10) (the fourth 

assessment report) 




Author William D. Collins 


Author Amadou T. Gaye 

Author Jonathan M. Gregory 

Author Akio Kitoh 



Author Akira Noda 

Author Sarah C.B. Raper 

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Author Ian G. Watterson 


Author Zong-Ci Zhao 

Abstract The future climate change results assessed in this chapter are based on a hierarchy of models, ranging from 

Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate 

Complexity (EMICs) to Simple Climate Models (SCMs). These models are forced with concentrations of 

greenhouse gases and other constituents derived from various emissions scenarios ranging from nonmitigation 

scenarios to idealised long-term scenarios. In general, we assess non-mitigated projections of future climate 

change at scales from global to hundreds of kilometres. Further assessments of regional and local climate 

changes are provided in Chapter 11. Due to an unprecedented, joint effort by many modelling groups 

worldwide, climate change projections are now based on multi-model means, differences between models can 

be assessed quantitatively and in some instances, estimates of the probability of change of important climate 

system parameters complement expert judgement. New results corroborate those given in the Third Assessment 

Report (TAR). Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and 

induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than 

those observed during the 20th century..... 

Publication Cambridge University Press, New York 

Pages 747–845 

Date 2007 

ISSN 9780521705967, 9780521880091 

Short Title Global climate projections Climate Change 2007 

URL http://www.cambridge.org/features/earth_environmental/climatechange/wg1.htm 

Archive http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data 

/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm 

Library Catalog IPCC 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. 

Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science 

Basis. 

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., 

D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 

United 

Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 

Global CO₂ rise leads to reduced maximum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation 


Author Emmy I. Lammertsma 

Author Hugo Jan de Boer 

Author Stefan C. Dekker 

Author David L. Dilcher 

Author André F. Lotter 

Author Friederike Wagner-Cremer 

Abstract A principle response of C3 plants to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ (CO₂) is to reduce 

transpirational water loss by decreasing stomatal conductance (gs) and simultaneously increase assimilation 

rates. Via this adaptation, vegetation has the ability to alter hydrology and climate. Therefore, it is important to 

determine the adaptation of vegetation to the expected anthropogenic rise in CO₂. Short-term stomatal opening– 

closing responses of vegetation to increasing CO₂ are described by free-air carbon enrichments growth 

experiments, and evolutionary adaptations are known from the geological record. However, to date the effects 

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of decadal to centennial CO₂ perturbations on stomatal conductance are still largely unknown. Here we 

reconstruct a 34% (±12%) reduction in maximum stomatal conductance (gsmax) per 100 ppm CO₂ increase as a 

result of the adaptation in stomatal density (D) and pore size at maximal stomatal opening (amax) of nine 

common species from Florida over the past 150 y. The species-specific gsmax values are determined by 

different evolutionary development, whereby the angiosperms sampled generally have numerous small stomata 

and high gsmax, and the conifers and fern have few large stomata and lower gsmax. Although angiosperms and 

conifers use different D and amax adaptation strategies, our data show a coherent response in gsmax to CO₂ rise 

of the past century. Understanding these adaptations of C3 plants to rising CO₂ after decadal to centennial 

environmental changes is essential for quantification of plant physiological forcing at timescales relevant for 

global warming, and they are likely to continue until the limits of their phenotypic plasticity are reached. 


Volume 108 

Issue 10 

Pages 4035-4040 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1100371108 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: cuticular analysis; subtropical vegetation. 



Global Consequences of Land Use 


Author J. A. Foley 

Abstract Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global 

importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to 

provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, 

and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and 

fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled 

humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the 

capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate 

and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between 

immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long 

term. 


Volume 309 

Issue 5734 

Pages 570-574 

Date 07/2005 


DOI 10.1126/science.1111772 

ISSN 0036-8075 



Date Added Sunday, March 20, 2011 11:32:21 AM 


Attachments 

Foley et al_Fig 1_2005 .ppt 


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Foley et al_Figures_2005 

Foley et al_Global Consequences of Land Use_Science_2005.pdf 

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions 


Author Brian C. O'Neill 

Author Michael Dalton 

Author Regina Fuchs 

Author Leiwen Jiang 

Author Shonali Pachauri 

Author Katarina Zigova 

Abstract Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world 

this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario 

analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a 

comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. 

Using an energy–economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that 

slowing population growth could provide 16–29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 

2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence 

emissions in particular world regions. 


Volume 107 

Issue 41 

Pages 17521-17526 

Date October 12, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1004581107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: climate change; energy; integrated assessment; population; households. 



Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua Moderate 

Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors 



Author Ivan Csiszar 

Author Christopher O. Justice 

Abstract We describe a new global multiyear satellite fire product designed to meet the needs of the global modeling 

community. We use the new data set to analyze the global distribution of biomass burning using five different 

temporal metrics derived from 5 years of high-quality satellite data acquired with the Moderate Resolution 

Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), on board NASA's Terra satellite. The global distributions of fire pixel 

density, peak month, season length, and annual periodicity are described. As part of our analysis we show, for 

the first time, the global distribution of the fire radiative power (FRP), a relatively new remotely sensed 

quantity. We find that low FRP tends to be associated with areas of cropland burning. In the tropics and much of 

the subtropics, low FRP is also associated with more heavily forested areas, while higher FRP tends to occur in 

areas of grassland burning. In boreal forests this trend is reversed, with higher FRP occurring in areas of greater 

tree cover. We next combine 3 years of Terra and Aqua MODIS observations to show that a strong diurnal fire 

cycle is prevalent at tropical and subtropical latitudes. We also consider the consistency of the fire time series 

recorded by the two MODIS instruments, and find the month of peak burning and fire season length observed 

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by each to be in good agreement in most areas. However, significant discrepancies with respect to seasonality 

do occur in some relatively small areas, and are most pronounced in tropical rain forest. 


Volume 111 

Issue G2 

Pages G02016 (12 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2005JG000142 

ISSN 2156-2202 

URL http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2006/2005JG000142.shtml 

Extra Keywords: MODIS; biomass burning; fire climatology; fire regime; fire radiative power. 



Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector 


Author Hugh J. Christian 

Author Richard J. Blakeslee 

Author Dennis J. Boccippio 

Author William L. Boeck 

Author Dennis E. Buechler 

Author Kevin T. Driscoll 

Author Steven J. Goodman 

Author John M. Hall 

Author William J. Koshak 

Author Douglas M. Mach 

Author Michael F. Stewart 

Abstract The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate 

lightning discharges as it orbits the Earth. This instrument is a scientific payload on the MicroLab-1 satellite that 

was launched into a 70° inclination low Earth orbit in April 1995. Given the orbital trajectory of the satellite, 

most regions of the Earth are observed by the OTD instrument more than 400 times during a 1 year period, and 

the average duration of each observation is 2 min. The OTD instrument optically detects lightning flashes that 

occur within its 1300 × 1300 km² field of view during both day and night conditions. A statistical examination of 

OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.4 billion flashes occur annually over the entire Earth. This annual flash 

count translates to an average of 44 ± 5 lightning flashes (intracloud and cloud-to-ground combined) occurring 

around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 fl s⁻¹ that was derived in 

1925 from world thunder day records. The range of uncertainty for the OTD global totals represents primarily 

the uncertainty (and variability) in the flash detection efficiency of the instrument. The OTD measurements 

have been used to construct lightning climatology maps that demonstrate the geographical and seasonal 

distribution of lightning activity for the globe. An analysis of this annual lightning distribution confirms that 

lightning occurs mainly over land areas, with an average land/ocean ratio of ~10:1. The Congo basin, which 

stands out year-round, shows a peak mean annual flash density of 80 fl km⁻²yr⁻¹ in Rwanda, and includes an 

area of over 3 million km² exhibiting flash densities greater than 30 fl km⁻²yr⁻¹ (the flash density of central 

Florida). Lightning is predominant in the northern Atlantic and western Pacific Ocean basins year-round where 

instability is produced from cold air passing over warm ocean water. Lightning is less frequent in the eastern 

tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins where the air mass is warmer. A dominant Northern Hemisphere 

summer peak occurs in the annual cycle, and evidence is found for a tropically driven semiannual cycle. 


Volume 108 

Issue D1 

Pages 4005 (15 p.) 


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DOI 10.1029/2002JD002347 

ISSN 2156-2202 


Extra Keywords: lightning; thunderstorm; atmospheric electricity; convection; climatology; remote sensing. 



Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change 


Author Patrick Gonzalez 



Author Raymond J. Drapek 

Abstract • Aim: Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. 

Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th 

century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from 

identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We explore potential methods to identify areas vulnerable to 

vegetation shifts and potential refugia. • Location: Global vegetation biomes. • Methods: We examined nine 

combinations of three sets of potential indicators of the vulnerability of ecosystems to biome change: (1) 

observed changes of 20th-century climate, (2) projected 21st-century vegetation changes using the MC1 

dynamic global vegetation model under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions 

scenarios, and (3) overlap of results from (1) and (2). Estimating probability density functions for climate 

observations and confidence levels for vegetation projections, we classified areas into vulnerability classes 

based on IPCC treatment of uncertainty. • Results: One-tenth to one-half of global land may be highly 

(confidence 0.8020130.95) to very highly (confidence 2265 0.95) vulnerable. Temperate mixed forest, boreal 

conifer and tundra and alpine biomes show the highest vulnerability, often due to potential changes in wildfire. 

Tropical evergreen broadleaf forest and desert biomes show the lowest vulnerability. • Main conclusions: 

Spatial analyses of observed climate and projected vegetation indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems 

to biome change. A mismatch between vulnerability patterns and the geographic priorities of natural resource 

organizations suggests the need to adapt management plans. Approximately a billion people live in the areas 

classified as vulnerable. 


Volume 19 

Issue 6 

Pages 755–768 



DOI 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x 

ISSN 1466-8238 


Extra Keywords: adaptation; biome change; climate change; dynamic global vegetation model; natural resource 

management; vegetation shifts; vulnerability. 



Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during 

the last glacial period 



Author Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi 

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Abstract Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale 

climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard-Oeschger 

(D-O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm 

and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by 

comparing D-O 6, D-O 8 and D-O 19. There is a strong response to both D-O warming events and subsequent 

cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern 

extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the 

limits of the dating resolution (50-100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally 

specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as 

registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but 

during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a 

secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are 

largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plantavailable 

water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response 

to D-O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution 

records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire 

response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether 

terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records. 


Volume 29 

Issue 21-22 

Pages 2957-2980 




ISSN 0277-3791 




Global pyrogeography: Macro-scaled models of fire-climate relationships for understanding current and 

future conditions 





Date 2008 

Proceedings Title Geophysical Research Abstracts 

Publisher EGU General Assembly Geophysical Research Abstracts 10: EGU2008-A-11511. 

Volume 10 

Pages 2 p. 

Short Title Global pyrogeography 

URL http://nature.berkeley.edu/moritzlab/publications.html 

Archive http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/members/meetings/sessions 

/oral_programmeb855.html?p_id=322&s_id=5252 



Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire 



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Author Marc-Andre´ Parisien 

Author Jeff Van Dorn 

Author Katharine Hayhoe 

Abstract Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that 

responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global 

wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global 

wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution 

of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, 

climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, 

over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in 

global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions 

as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of 

resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the 

world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should 

necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by 

decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net 

balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These 

changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite 

rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new 

climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, 

suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global 

vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. 


Volume 4 

Issue 4 

Pages e5102 (12 p.) 




ISSN 1932-6203 

Short Title Global Pyrogeography 

URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662419/ 

Loc. in Archive www.plosone.org 



Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly 



Author Zhihua Zhang 

Author Scott Rutherford 

Author Raymond S. Bradley 

Author Malcolm K. Hughes 

Author Drew Shindell 

Author Caspar Ammann 

Author Greg Faluvegi 

Author Fenbiao Ni 

Abstract Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained 

poorly defined. We used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this 

interval. The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in 

some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La 

Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over 

the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E., with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. 

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The patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes 

involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation. 


Volume 326 

Issue 5957 

Pages 1256-1260 



DOI 10.1126/science.1177303 

ISSN 1095-9203 




Global surface temperature change 


Author James Hansen 

Author Reto Ruedy 

Author Makiko Sato 

Author Ken Lo 

Abstract We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, 

compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satelliteobserved 

night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust 

temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on 

analyzed global change are small. Because the GISS analysis combines available sea surface temperature 

records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that 

global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are 

limited. We use simple 12 month (and n × 12) running means to improve the information content in our 

temperature graphs. Contrary to a popular misconception, the rate of warming has not declined. Global 

temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations 

associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global 12 month running 

mean temperature for the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010. 


Volume 48 

Issue 4 

Pages RG4004 (29 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2010RG000345 

ISSN 8755-1209 


Archive http://westcoastclimateequity.org/2010/06/02/dr-james-hansen-global-surface-temperature-change-summary/ 

Extra Keywords: global temperature; temperature analysis; climate change; global change; El Niño-La Niña. 



Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900-1995 


Author Aiguo Dai 


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Author Thomas R. Karl 

Abstract The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was calculated globally using gridded monthly air temperature and 

precipitation. From 1900 to 1995, there are large multiyear to decadal variations in the percentage areas in 

severe drought (PDSI< 3.0) and severe moisture surplus (PDSI > +3.0) over many land areas while secular 

trends are small. Since the late 1970s, however, there have been some increases in the combined percentage 

areas in severe drought and severe moisture surplus, resulting from increases in either the drought area (e.g., 

over the Sahel, eastern Asia and southern Africa) or both the drought and wet areas (e.g., over the U.S. and 

Europe). Although the high percentages of the dry and wet areas in the recent decades are not unprecedented 

during this century (except the Sahel), the recent changes are closely relate to the shift in El Ni~ no - Southern 

Oscillation (ENSO) towards more warm events since the late 1970s and coincide with record high global mean 

temperatures. Moreover, for any given value of ENSO indices, the PDSI anomalies tend to be larger than would 

be expected from previous records. These changes are qualita- tively consistent with those expected from 

increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 


Volume 25 

Issue 17 

Pages 3367–3370 



DOI 10.1029/98GL52511 

ISSN 0094–8276 

Short Title Global variations in droughts and wet spells 

URL http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/1998/98GL52511.shtml 

Extra Keywords: global change: water cycles, hydrology: drought, hydrology: floods. 



Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall 


Author Shang-Ping Xie 

Author Clara Deser 

Author Gabriel A. Vecchi 

Author Jian Ma 

Author Haiyan Teng 

Author Andrew T. Wittenberg 

Abstract Spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics are investigated based 

on ensemble simulations for the first half of the twenty-first century under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission 

scenario A1B with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 

Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a GHG increase that is 

nearly uniform in space, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional differences in SST 

warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming. Specifically, the tropical Pacific warming features a 

conspicuous maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics. The former is associated 

with westerly wind anomalies whereas the latter is linked to intensified southeast trade winds, suggestive of 

wind–evaporation–SST feedback. There is a tendency for a greater warming in the northern subtropics than in 

the southern subtropics in accordance with asymmetries in trade wind changes. Over the equatorial Indian 

Ocean, surface wind anomalies are easterly, the thermocline shoals, and the warming is reduced in the east, 

indicative of Bjerknes feedback. In the midlatitudes, ocean circulation changes generate narrow banded 

structures in SST warming. The warming is negatively correlated with wind speed change over the tropics and 

positively correlated with ocean heat transport change in the northern extratropics. A diagnostic method based 

on the ocean mixed layer heat budget is developed to investigate mechanisms for SST pattern formation. 

Tropical precipitation changes are positively correlated with spatial deviations of SST warming from the tropical 

mean. In particular, the equatorial maximum in SST warming over the Pacific anchors a band of pronounced 

rainfall increase. The gross moist instability follows closely relative SST change as equatorial wave adjustments 

flatten upper-tropospheric warming. The comparison with atmospheric simulations in response to a spatially 

uniform SST warming illustrates the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect overlooked in 

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current discussion of precipitation response to global warming. Implications for the global and regional response 

of tropical cyclones are discussed. 


Volume 23 

Issue 4 

Pages 966-986 



DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1 

ISSN 0894-8755 

Short Title Global Warming Pattern Formation 


Extra Keywords: rainfall; sea surface temperature; tropics; ensembles; coupled models; greenhouse gases. 



Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries 





Abstract Spatially resolved global reconstructions of annual surface temperature patterns over the past six centuries are 

based on the multivariate calibration of widely distributed high-resolution proxy climate indicators. 

Time-dependent correlations of the reconstructions with time-series records representing changes in 

greenhouse-gas concentrations, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols suggest that each of these factors has 

contributed to the climate variability of the past 400 years, with greenhouse gases emerging as the dominant 

forcing during the twentieth century. Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures for three of the past eight 

years are warmer than any other year since (at least) AD 1400. 


Volume 392 

Issue 6678 

Pages 779–787 



DOI 10.1038/33859 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v392/n6678/full/392779a0.html 



Glossary of Wildland Fire Terminology 

Type Document 

Contributor National Wildfire Coordinating Group 


Publisher National Wildfire Coordinating Group 

Date May 2011 

URL http://www.nwcg.gov/pms/pubs/glossary/index.htm 

Rights National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) 


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Governing sustainable forest management in the new climate regime 


Author Frances Seymour 

Author Elizabeth Forwand 


Volume 1 

Issue 6 

Pages 803-810 

Date 11/2010 

Journal Abbr WIREs Clim Change 

DOI 10.1002/wcc.70 

ISSN 17577780 




Modified Tuesday, March 01, 2011 10:09:47 AM 

Attachments 

Seymour and Forwand_SFM and climate change_CC_2011.pdf 

Grass response to seasonal burns in experimental plantings 


Author Henry F. Howe 

Abstract A 6-year experiment examined the effects of spring and summer tires on grasses in southern Wisconsin. 

Synthetic communities of C₃ and C₄ grasses were seeded (100 seeds m⁻² species⁻¹) in 1992 and subjected to 

prescribed burns in May and August of 1995 and 1997, or left unburned. By 1994 all plots were virtual 

monocultures of the C₃ reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea L.). By the second post-season sample in 1998, 

total productivity of plots burned in May was higher (781 ± 212 se g m⁻² year⁻¹) than those burned in August 

(362 ± 28 g m⁻² year⁻¹) or left unburned (262 ± 43 g m⁻² year⁻¹) due to the incursions of either the C₄ grasses big 

bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), switichgrass (Panicum virgatum L), or both. These large late-season 

grasses are much more productive per area covered than P. arundinacea or the other two C₃ grasses present, 

Elymus virginicus L. and Poa pratensis L. Even at this early stage of succession, C₄ production in plots burned 

in May was 5 to 6 times that in the other 2 treatments. August burns produced a mix of C₃ and C₄ grasses but 

did not strongly favor the pre-treatment C₃ dominant P. arundinacea. Unburned plots most resembled those 

burned in August in species composition, but differed in having 4 times the accumulated litter, perhaps 

foretelling divergence in C₃ and C₄ composition as succession proceeds. 


Volume 53 

Issue 4 

Pages 437–441 



DOI 10.2307/4003757 

ISSN 0022-409X 


Extra Keywords: C₃ grass; C₄ grass; fire season; ecological restoration; tallgrass prairie. 

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Grasstrees reveal contrasting fire regimes in eucalypt forest before and after European settlement of 

southwestern Australia 


Author David J. Ward 

Author Byron B. Lamont 

Author Chantal L. Burrows 

Abstract We have developed a convenient new method of ageing grasstrees (Xanthorrhoea) and determining their fire 

history over the last 250 years or more. Grinding off the charred leafbases reveals alternating cream and brown 

bands that we equate with annual growth cycles and occasional black bands that we equate with the passage of 

fire. The new method was employed on 159 grasstrees at 50 sites distributed throughout the dry eucalypt forest 

region of southwestern Australia. In the 80 years prior to European settlement in 1829, and for the next 40 

years, fires were recorded on grasstrees at 3-5 year intervals. The ensuing decline in mean fire frequencies and 

increased variability corresponded with demise of the aboriginal inhabitants and onset of intense wildfires 

associated with unrestrained logging. Our data show that from 1920 attempts at fire exclusion followed later by 

prescribed burning programs were only partly successful. Currently recorded intervals on individual trees of 

10-20 years are consistent with further changes in fire management practices. Both extremes would have had 

significant impacts on the biota. 


Volume 150 

Issue 3 

Pages 323-329 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00584-3 

ISSN 0378-1127 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6X-43N7DJ7-B/2/8215cdeee5b56f8fb197f55c347bcd46 

Extra Keywords: aboriginal burning practices; dendrochronology; eucalypt forest; fire regimes; forestry; grasstrees; 

nutrient uptake patterns; species conservation; Xanthorrhoea. 



Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America 


Author Richard Seager 

Author Gabriel A. Vecchi 

Abstract Climate models robustly predict that the climate of southwestern North America, defined as the area from the 

western Great Plains to the Pacific Ocean and from the Oregon border to southern Mexico, will dry throughout 

the current century as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases. This regional drying is part of a general drying 

of the subtropics and poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zones. Through an analysis of 15 coupled 

climate models it is shown here that the drying is driven by a reduction of winter season precipitation associated 

with increased moisture divergence by the mean flow and reduced moisture convergence by transient eddies. 

Due to the presence of large amplitude decadal variations of presumed natural origin, observations to date 

cannot confirm that this transition to a drier climate is already underway, but it is anticipated that the 

anthropogenic drying will reach the amplitude of natural decadal variability by midcentury. In addition to this 

drop in total precipitation, warming is already causing a decline in mountain snow mass and an advance in the 

timing of spring snow melt disrupting the natural water storage systems that are part of the region’s water supply 

system. Uncertainties in how radiative forcing will impact the tropical Pacific climate system create 

uncertainties in the amplitude of drying in southwest North America with a La Niña-like response creating a 

worst case scenario of greater drying. 

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Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21277 -21282 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0910856107 

ISSN 1091-6490 


Extra Keywords: climate change; decadal variability; hydrological cycle; southwest drying; drought. 



Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C 



Author Nicolai Meinshausen 

Author William Hare 

Author Sarah C. B. Raper 

Author Katja Frieler 




Abstract More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 °C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) 

as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the 

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to 

uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic 

analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming 

throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate 

system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both 

cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that 

twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 °C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative 

CO₂ emissions over 2000–50 to 1,000 Gt CO₂ yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 °C—and a limit 

of 1,440 Gt CO₂ yields a 50% probability—given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system 

properties. As known 2000–06 CO₂ emissions were ~234 Gt CO₂, less than half the proven economically 

recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 

Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12–45% probability of 

exceeding 2 °C — assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity 

distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the 

probability of exceeding 2 °C rises to 53–87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 

levels in 2020. 


Volume 458 

Issue 7242 

Pages 1158-1162 



DOI 10.1038/nature08017 

ISSN 1476-4687 


Extra Accompanying datasets are available at http://www.primap.org 



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Grundriss der klimakunde 

Type Book 

Author Wladimir Peter von Köppen 

Edition 2nd edition, 28 illustrations 

Place Berlin 

Publisher Walter de Gruyter 

Date 1931 


Language German 

URL http://shop.meteorologie-buecher.de/catalog/popup_image.php? 

pID=317 



Haines Index climatology for the western United States 

Type Magazine Article 

Author John Werth 

Author Paul Werth 

Abstract In 1988, Donald Haines developed a Lower Atmospheric Severity Index (LASI), now called the Haines Index, 

for wildland fires based on the stability and moisture content of the lower atmosphere. In the high-elevation, 

western region of the United States, the index uses the 70-50 kPa lapse rate and the temperature-dew point 

spread at 70 kPa. The index varies between 2 and 6 with a category 6 indicating dry, unstable air, and category 

2 moist, stable air. The potential for large fire growth and/or extreme fire behavior is very low when the index is 

2, but high when the index is 6. Haines developed a rudimentary Haines Index climatology for his study using 

radiosonde data from Winslow, Arizona and Salem, Illinois for the year 1981. His priliminary results indicated 6 

% of all fire season days should fall with the high-index category and 62 % in the very low-index category. This 

study establishes a more detailed, high-elevation Haines Index climatology for the western United States based 

on 1990-1995 upper air data from 20 radiosonde sited. Maps and frequency tables are constructed for June 

through October for the morning (1200 UTC) and afternoon (0000 UTC) upper air soundings. 

Publication Fire Management Notes 

Volume 58 

Issue 3 

Date Summer 1998 

Pages 8–17 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/volumes_authors.html 

Extra Fire Management Notes: Current title is Fire Management Today. 



Handbuch der Klimatologie in Fünf Bänden 

Type Book 

Editor Wladimir Peter von Köppen 

Editor Rudolf Geiger 

Volume 2 

Place Berlin 

Publisher Verlag von Gerbrüder Borntraeger 

Date 1930 

Language German 

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id=ysjaAAAAMAAJ&… 




Have southern Texas savannas been converted to woodlands in recent history? 


Author Steve Archer 

Abstract At savanna woodland sites in southern Texas, discrete clusters of woody plants form in herbaceous clearings 

following the invasion of mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa var. glandulosa), an arborescent legume. The growth 

rate of these clusters has been shown to vary with precipitation and size. Based on field data and a knowledge 

of mechanisms of woody-plant successional processes, a simulation model was developed to estimate the rates 

of growth and development of these woody-plant assemblages on sandy-loam uplands under different 

precipitation regimes. In the simulation, the establishment of other woody species beneath invading Prosopis 

occurred within 10-15 yr. As a cluster developed around the Prosopis nucleus, species richness increased 

rapidly for 35-45 yr and became asymptotic at 10 species per cluster. The estimated age of the oldest Prosopis 

plant found in clusters was 172-217 yr. However, model-derived size-age relationships predicted that most 

(90%) clusters and mesquite plants at the site are less than 100 yr old. A lack of field evidence of mortality 

among large clusters and Prosopis plants suggests that populations are young and expanding geometrically. 

There was no evidence of density-dependent restrictions on recruitment or expansion. Thus, as new clusters are 

initiated and existing clusters expand, coalescence to continuous canopy woodlands may eventually occur. 

Predicted long-term mean radial trunk growth of Prosopis (0.8-1.9 mm/yr) was reasonable in comparison with 

short-term field measurements on Prosopis in other, more-mesic systems (2-4 mm/yr). Model output was also 

consistent with historical observations suggesting that the conversion of savannas to woodlands in the Rio 

Grande Plains has been recent and coincident with both heavy grazing by livestock and seasonal shifts in 

precipitation that began in the late 1800s. This is in agreement with woody-plant invasions documented in other 

North American arid and semiarid systems by the direct aging of woody plants. 

Publication The American naturalist 

Volume 134 

Issue 4 

Pages 545–561 


Journal Abbr Am. Nat. 

ISSN 0003-0147 




Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960 


Author Franz G. Kuglitsch 

Author Andrea Toreti 

Author Elena Xoplaki 


Author Christos S. Zerefos 

Author Murat Türkeş 


Abstract A new data set of high-quality homogenized daily maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from 

246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, 

Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey) is developed and used to quantify changes in heat 

wave number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006. Daily temperature homogeneity analyses suggest 

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that many instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm-biased, correcting for these biases regionally 

averaged heat wave trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes across the western Balkans, 

southwestern and western Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline. Since the 1960s, the mean heat 

wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased 

by a factor of 7.6 ± 1.3, 7.5 ± 1.3 and 6.2 ± 1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the heat wave increase 

in this region is higher than previously reported. 


Volume 37 

Issue 4 

Pages L04802 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009GL041841 

ISSN 0094-8276 


Extra Keywords: heat waves; Mediterranean; data homogenization. 



Heterogeneous response of circumboreal wildfire risk to climate change since the early 1900s 


Author Martin P. Girardin 



Author Manfred Mudelsee 


Author Christelle Hély 


Abstract We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 1901−2002 (ad) period with an analysis of broad-scale 

patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and 

Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and 

precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across 

the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned). We used linear trend and regime 

shift analyses to investigate (multi-) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and 

kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses 

did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern 

Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were 

inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends 

toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The 

diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 

1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for 

increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (+0.57% per decade; P


ISSN 1354-1013 


Extra Keywords: area burned; climate change; drought code; evapotranspiration; extreme; fire; forest; kernel 

function. 



High-resolution carbon mapping on the million-hectare Island of Hawaii 


Author Gregory P Asner 

Author R Flint Hughes 

Author Joseph Mascaro 

Author Amanda L Uowolo 

Author David E Knapp 

Author James Jacobson 

Author Ty Kennedy-Bowdoin 

Author John K Clark 

Abstract Current markets and international agreements for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation 

(REDD) rely on carbon (C) monitoring techniques. Combining field measurements, airborne light detection and 

ranging (LiDAR)-based observations, and satellite-based imagery, we developed a 30-meter-resolution map of 

aboveground C density spanning 40 vegetation types found on the million-hectare Island of Hawaii. We 

estimate a total of 28.3 teragrams of C sequestered in aboveground woody vegetation on the island, which is 

56% lower than Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that do not resolve C variation at fine 

spatial scales. The approach reveals fundamental ecological controls over C storage, including climate, 

introduced species, and land-use change, and provides a fourfold decrease in regional costs of C measurement 

over field sampling alone. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org.mutex.gmu.edu/doi/abs/10.1890/100179 


Pages 110301094720075 

Date 03/2011 

Journal Abbr Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 

DOI 10.1890/100179 

ISSN 1540-9295 





Attachments 

Asner et al_High-resolution carbon mapping on the million-hectare Island of Hawaii_Frontiers in Ecology_2011.pdf 

Hawaii: New high-resolution carbon mapping techniques provide more accurate results 

High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years 


Author Jørgen Peder Steffensen 

Author Katrine K. Andersen 

Author Matthias Bigler 

Author Henrik B. Clausen 

Author Dorthe Dahl-Jensen 

Author Hubertus Fischer 

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Author Kumiko Goto-Azuma 

Author Margareta Hansson 

Author Sigfús J. Johnsen 

Author Jean Jouzel 

Author Valérie Masson-Delmotte 

Author Trevor Popp 

Author Sune O. Rasmussen 

Author Regine Röthlisberger 

Author Urs Ruth 

Author Bernhard Stauffer 

Author Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen 

Author Árný E. Sveinbjörnsdóttir 

Author Anders Svensson 

Author James W. C. White 

Abstract The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger 

Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project 

ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 

3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air 

temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly 

preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of 

the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere 

atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from 

one year to the next. 


Volume 321 

Issue 5889 

Pages 680-684 



DOI 10.1126/science.1157707 

ISSN 1095-9203 




Historic fire regime dynamics and forcing factors in the Boston Mountains, Arkansas, USA 



Author Martin A. Spetich 

Author Michael C. Stambaugh 

Abstract We used dendrochronological methods to construct three fire history chronologies in the interior of the Boston 

Mountains of Arkansas from 281 dated fire scars identified on 86 shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) remnants and 

trees. We describe and contrast these interior sites with sites on the southern perimeter of Boston Mountains 

that were documented in an earlier study and examine human, topographic and climatic spatial and temporal 

controls on these fire regimes. Fire frequency and human population density at the interior sites were positively 

correlated during an early period (1680–1880) of low levels of population, but were negatively correlated during 

a later period (1881–2000) as human population levels increased to a much higher level. Wide spread fire 

occurred more often during drought years in the 1700s with fires likely achieving sizes unprecedented during the 

last century. The early (before 1810) fire scar record showed that fire intervals were about three times longer 

(MFI = 35 years) at the interior sites than at the perimeter sites. Early transitional (1810–1830) settlement by 

Cherokees at population densities under 0.26 humans/km² was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with the number of 

fires per decade in the interior region of the Boston Mountains. Multiple regression analyses further implicated 

humans as well as short- and long-term climate variability such as forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation 

(ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). 

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Volume 234 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 293–304 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.07.016 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Archive http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/24566 

Extra Keywords: Ozarks; dendrochronology; human population; fire scar; climate; drought; ENSO; AMO. 



Historic fire regime in southern California shrublands 



Author Connie J. Fotheringham 

Abstract Historical variability in fire regime is a conservative indicator of ecosystem sustainability, and thus 

understanding the natural role of fire in chaparral ecosystems is necessary for proper fire management. It has 

been suggested that the "natural" fire regime was one of frequent small fires that fragmented the landscape into 

a fine-grained mixture of age classes that precluded large, catastrophic fires. Some researchers claim that this 

regime was lost because of highly effective fire suppression and conclude that if fire managers could "restore" a 

regime of frequent fires with widespread prescription burning, they could eliminate the hazard of catastrophic 

fires. The primary evidence in support of this model is a study that compared contemporary burning patterns in 

southern California, U.S.A., a region subject to fire suppression, with patterns in northern Baja California, 

Mexico, where there is less effective fire suppression. We found that differences in fire regime between these 

two regions are inconclusive and could not be ascribed conclusively to differences in fire suppression. Historical 

records suggest that the natural fire regime in southern California shrublands was rather coarse-grained and not 

substantively different from the contemporary regime. There is no evidence that fire-management policies have 

created the contemporary fire regime dominated by massive Santa Ana wind-driven fires. Increased 

expenditures on fire suppression and increased loss of property and lives are the result of human demographic 

patterns that place increasing demand on fire-suppression forces. 


Volume 15 

Issue 6 

Pages 1536–1548 



DOI 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.00097.x 

ISSN 1523-1739 




Historic fire regimes and their relation to vegetation patterns in the Monterey Bay Area of California 


Author Jason M. Greenlee 

Author Jean H. Langenheim 

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Abstract A study of historic fire regimes in the Monterey Bay area, with emphasis on the coastal redwood (Sequoia 

sempervirens) community is described. Five distinct historic fire regimes were initially distinguished from the 

literature on land-use history. Fire scar dating, historical research and fire behavior modeling were used to create 

maps, or "scenarios," representing fire coverage during each regime. Although effects of ignition and moisture 

gradient apparently influenced the vegetation pattern in each of the five fire regimes, only three regimes were 

particularly significant to the vegetation of the area. Prior to human habitation, a lightning fire regime existed 

which, along with the vegetation, was disturbed by the arrival of humans around 11,000 BP. After adjusting to a 

series of three burning regimes under different human occupations, the vegetation was again disturbed when fire 

suppression became effective in the 20th century. The present regime is similar in several respects to that which 

existed prior to the arrival of humans. We propose that computer modeling of fire behavior combined with 

historic lightning fire incidence may provide useful information on prehuman fire regimes here and elsewhere. 


Volume 124 

Issue 2 

Pages 239-253 



DOI 10.2307/2426173 

ISSN 1938-4238 




Historic forest fires in Maine 


Author Charles B. Fobes 


Publication Economic Geography 

Volume 24 

Issue 4 

Pages 269-273 


Journal Abbr Econ. Geogr. 

ISSN 0013-0095 




Historic prairies in the Piedmont of North and South Carolina, USA 


Author Lawrence S. Barden 

Abstract From 1540 to 1750, European explorers and traders in the Piedmont region of North and South Carolina 

reported many prairie-like openings ranging in size up to 40 km across. However, historical evidence of 

Piedmont prairies has been inacces¬sible to most restorationists and land managers. This review summarizes 

historical information on prairie landscapes of the Carolina Piedmont region at the time of European-American 

exploration and settlement. Historical and meteorological evidence suggests that these prairies were primarily 

the products of Native American burning and agriculture. 


Volume 17 

Issue 2 

Pages 149–152 

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ISSN 0885-8608 

URL http://www.mendeley.com/research/historic-prairies-piedmont-north-south-carolina-usa-3/ 

Extra Keywords: burning by Native Americans; North Carolina; South Carolina; Piedmont; prairie. 



Historical burn area in western Canadian peatlands and its relationship to fire weather indices 





Author Jagtar S. Bhatti 

Abstract Peatlands store the majority of soil carbon in many northern regions, yet their vulnerability to fire remains 

poorly understood. We used large-scale mapping of fire and peatland distributions to explore patterns of burning 

at two spatial scales. On a landscape scale in central Alberta, we used spatially explicit distributions of peatlands 

and 50 years of fire perimeter maps to determine whether uplands burn more preferentially than peatlands. Burn 

area and ignition localities in central Alberta did not occur preferentially in uplands relative to bogs and fens. 

Extrapolating this result at a regional scale, we used the Peatlands of Canada database and 20 years of historical 

fire records to estimate annual burn areas for Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and 

Saskatchewan peatlands. Peatland burn areas varied tremendously over time, with high fire activity in the early 

1980s and mid-1990s. On average, fires impacted 1850 km² of peatland annually across this region of western 

Canada. Positive relationships between the area of peatland burned and weather variables calculated for each 

fire event using the Canadian Fire Weather Index, including maximum air temperatures and the duff moisture 

code, suggest that drier and/or warmer conditions likely would increase the burning of peatlands in western 

Canada. 

Publication Global Biogeochemical Cycles 

Volume 18 

Issue 4 

Pages GB4014 (9 p.) 


Journal Abbr Global Biogeochem. Cy. 

DOI 10.1029/2004GB002222 

ISSN 0886–6236 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004GB002222.shtml 

Extra Keywords: fire; peatlands; wetlands; boreal; carbon; climate change. 



Historical change in vegetation and disturbance on the Georgia Piedmont 


Author C. Mark Cowell 

Abstract Due to the extensive removal of the forest cover of the southeastern piedmont during the 19th century and to 

the lack of systematic presettlement records for most of this region, there has been little basis for relating the 

piedmont's maturing postsettlement secondary forest to its pre-European condition. This study compares species 

composition patterns between pre-European and present periods for a portion of the Georgia piedmont that had 

a systematic presettlement land survey. Detrended correspondence analysis of presettlement, immature 

postsettlement, and mature postsettlement forests identifies a primary gradient that distinguishes between the 

vegetation of these periods on the basis of habitat moisture preferences and fire tolerance of species. A 

secondary gradient emphasizes life history characteristics of species that typically differentiate immature and 

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mature postsettlement forests; presettlement forests were not dominated by the late successional species typical 

of mature postsettlement forests, but had abundant disturbance-favored taxa. Changes in the abundance of 

individual species from presettlement to mature postsettlement forests occurred across all habitat types. The 

xerophytic, fire-tolerant taxa that dominated presettlement forests (e.g., Pinus species, Quercus stellata, Q. 

velutina) are less important in mature postsettlement forests. Dominants of mature postsettlement forests (e.g., 

Q. alba, Liriodendron tulipifera, Carya species) are primarily mesophytic, fire-intolerant species that were far 

less prominent in presettlement forests. Marked contrasts in composition between presettlement and mature 

postsettlement forests of the piedmont have been produced by changes in the prevalent disturbance regime from 

fire-dominated dynamics to gap-phase processes. 

Publication The American Midland Naturalist 

Volume 140 

Issue 1 

Pages 78–89 

Date 1998 


DOI 10.1674/0003-0031(1998)140[0078:HCIVAD]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0003-0031 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1674/0003-0031%281998%29140%5B0078%3AHCIVAD%5D2.0.CO%3B2 



Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since AD 1700 




Abstract Fire-scar chronologies from a network of 63 sites in the South-western Unites States are listed and described. 

These data characterize the natural range and variability of fire regimes from low elevation pine forests to 

higher elevation mixed-conifer forests since AD 1700. A general pattern of increasing length of intervals 

between low intensity surface fires was observed along gradients of low to high elevations, and from the 

relatively drier pine sites to the wetter mixed-conifer sites. However, large variability in the measures of central 

tendency and higher moments of the fire interval distributions suggest that elevation and forest type were often 

weak determinants of fire frequensy. Some of the variation in fire interval distributions between similar 

elevation or forest types were probably due to unique site characteristics, such as landscape connectivity (i.e., 

ability of fires to spread into the sites), and land-use history. Differences in the sizes of sampled areas and 

fire-scar collections among the sites also limited our ability to compare and interpret fire interval summary 

statistics. Comparison of both the fire-scar network data (1700 to 1900) and documentary records of area 

burned on all Southwestern Region National Forests (1920 to 1978) with a Palmer Drought Severity Index time 

series clearly shows the association between severe droughts and large fire years, and wet periods and small fire 

years. Moreover, important lagging relations between climate and fire occurrence are also revealed. In 

particular, large fire years in ponderosa pine dominated forests were typically preceded by wet conditions in the 

prior one to three years. In contrast, large fire years in mixed-conifer forests were associated with extreme 

drought years, but no consistent lagging relations were observed. We hypothesize that both fuel prodution 

(especially grasses and pine needles) and fuel moisture were important climate-linked factors in ponderosa pine 

fire regimes, while fuel moisture was the primary factor controlling mixed-conifer fire regimes. These results 

provide two important types of information for management: (1) Baselines of fire regime ranges and variations 

are documented across the most economically important and widespread forest types in the Southwest. These 

data will be useful for guiding, developing, and justifying ecosystem management plans, particularly for the 

restoration of fire regimes and forest structures to improve forest health and sustainability. (2) The fire-climate 

relations suggest that a long-range fire hazard forecasting model could be developed that would be a valuable 

tool for planning and implementing both prescribed fire and fire suppression programs in the Southwest. 

Date 1996 

Proceedings Title Proceedings Fire Effects in Southwestern Fortest 

Conference Name Proceedings of the 2nd La Mesa Fire Symposium, Los Alamos, New Mexico, March 29-31, 1994. 


Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 

Pages 11–32 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

Series General Technical Report RM-GTR-286 

URL http://www.fort.usgs.gov/Products/Publications/pub_abstract.asp? 

PubId=3199 



Swetnam, T. and Baisan, C. (1996). Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since AD 1700. In: CD Allen (ed) 

Fire Effects in Southwestern Fortest : Proceedings of the 2nd La Mesa Fire Symposium, pp. 11-32. USDA Forest Service, Rocky 

Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RM-GTR-286. 

Historical fire regime shifts related to climate teleconnections in the Waswanipi area, central Quebec, 

Canada 


Author Héloïse Le Goff 




Abstract The synchrony of regional fire regime shifts across the Quebec boreal forest, eastern Canada, suggests that 

regional fire regimes are influenced by large-scale climate variability. The present study investigated the 

relationship of the forest-age distribution, reflecting the regional fire activity, to large-scale climate variations. 

The interdecadal variation in forest fire activity in the Waswanipi area, north-eastern Canada, was reconstructed 

over 1720–2000. Next, the 1880–2000 reconstructed fire activity was analysed using different proxies of the 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal 

Oscillation (AMO). We estimated the global fire cycle around 132–153 years, with a major lengthening of the 

fire cycle from 99 years before 1940, to 282 years after 1940. Correlations between decadal fire activity and 

climate indices indicated a positive influence of the PDO. The positive influence of PDO on regional fire 

activity was also validated using t-tests between fire years and non-fire years between 1899 and 1996. Our 

results confirmed recent findings on the positive influence of the PDO on the fire activity over northern Quebec 

and the reinforcing role of the NAO in this relationship. 


Volume 16 

Issue 5 

Pages 607 



DOI 10.1071/WF06151 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF06151 

Extra Keywords: bootstrapped Pearson correlations; fire history; Multidecadal Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 



Historical surface fire frequency in ponderosa pine stands in research natural areas, central Rocky 

Mountains and Black Hills, USA 


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Author Thomas G. Andrews 

Abstract "Historical range of variability" and "reference conditions" are two concepts that attempt to characterize 

ecosystem conditions as they may exist in the absence of pervasive human impacts. However, to define 

reference conditions from reference landscapes, such as U.S. Forest Service Research Natural Areas, requires a 

long-term perspective by which to assess whether existing ecosystem conditions are driven by predominately 

natural rather than human factors. We used fire-scarred trees to reconstruct centuries-long chronologies of 

surface fires in four research natural areas (three established and one proposed) that contain ponderosa pine 

(Pinus ponderosa Laws.) forests in South Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado. Fire frequency was variable among 

research natural areas, but recent fire-free periods in three of the four areas were up to approximately 2.5 times 

longer than any presettlement intervals. Loss of surface fires most likely is related indirectly to recent land and 

resource use in areas outside of the research natural areas and related directly to fire suppression and livestock 

grazing in the research natural areas themselves. Studies that attempt to define reference conditions for 

ponderosa pine ecosystems from existing conditions in these Research Natural Areas will need to consider 

changes that may have occurred in these areas as the result of loss of historical fire patterns. Determination of 

historical fire frequency also should provide useful information for the management or restoration of ecosystem 

processes and conditions in these or similar natural areas. 


Volume 20 

Issue 2 

Pages 133–139 



ISSN 0885-8608 





Historical variation in fire, oak recruitment, and post-logging accelerated succession in central 

Pennsylvania 



Author Gregory J. Nowacki 

Abstract Composition, structure and radial growth patterns were studied in relatively undisturbed, mature mixed-oak 

(Quercus), valley floor forests and in similar forests extensively logged between 1936-1946 in central 

Pennsylvania. These data were analyzed in relation to presettlement forest composition and historical fire 

records to investigate temporal variation in Quercus recruitment versus accelerated succession of more shade 

tolerant species following logging. Presettlement valley floor forests in the study area were dominated by 

Quercus alba and Pinus strobus. Recurring logging and fire between 1780-1900 associated with charcoal iron 

furnace activity increased Quercus and decreased Pinus dominance in second-growth forests established during 

that period. Between 1908-1989 the total area burned by wildfire throughout Pennsylvania decreased by >99% 

(from >400,000 ha to


DOI 10.2307/2996916 

ISSN 0040-9618 


Extra Keywords: disturbance; presettlement forests; charcoal production; radial growth analysis; Acer; Prunus; Pinus; 

oak replacement. 



Historically significant wildland fires 

Type Web Page 

Author National Interagency Fire Center 

Abstract This is a list of some of the most serious wildland fires in U.S. history. Some were significant because of their 

size, others because of the value of the resources lost. Some small, but very intense, fires were important 

because of the loss of lives and property. There have been larger fires than some of those included on this list, 

but few or none with greater impact on lives and resources. 

Website Title National Interagency Fire Center - Fire Information - Wildland Fire Statistics 

Website Type Fire Information - Statistics 

URL http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_histSigFires.html 

Extra http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.html 



History and status of Table Mountain pine- pitch pine forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains 


Author Charles E. Williams 

Abstract Pine forests dominated by Table Mountain pine, Pinus pungens Lam., and pitch pine, P. rigida Mill., commonly 

occur on xeric ridgetops and southwest-facing slopes at mid-elevations in the southern Appalachian Mountains 

of North America. Table Mountain pine - pitch pine forests are fire-dependent, requiring fire at frequent 

intervals to ensure optimal regeneration and maintenance. Distribution and abundance of Table Mountain pine - 

pitch pine forests in the southern Appalachians have changed considerably since European settlement. 

Presettlement pine forests were primarily restricted to xeric ridgetops and rock outcrops, but they periodically 

spread into other parts of the landscape following fire generated by lightning or set by Native Americans and 

intensified by extended drought. Postsettlement clearing and burning of forests of the region, especially 

extensive from the late 1800s to the early 1900s, led to conditions conducive to pine forest regeneration and 

allowed their increase in importance in southern Appalachian landscapes. Beginning in the 1930s, changes in 

land use and effective fire suppression programs slowed or reversed pine forest expansion, with remaining 

stands on more mesic sites becoming reproductively stagnant and eventually succeeding to oak dominance. 

Thus, the general trend in abundance and distribution of Table Mountain pine - pitch pine forests in the southern 

Appalachians has been one of expansion followed by retreat, triggered by natural and anthropic disturbance. 

The distribution and abundance of these forests are likely to change again in the future with active management 

and restoration, the invasion of alien organisms, and the impact of forest decline agents. 


Volume 18 

Issue 1 

Pages 81–90 



ISSN 0885-8608 




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History of climate modeling 


Author Paul N. Edwards 

Abstract The history of climate modeling begins with conceptual models, followed in the 19th century by mathematical 

models of energy balance and radiative transfer, as well as simple analog models. Since the 1950s, the principal 

tools of climate science have been computer simulation models of the global general circulation. From the 1990s 

to the present, a trend toward increasingly comprehensive coupled models of the entire climate system has 

dominated the field. Climate model evaluation and intercomparison is changing modeling into a more 

standardized, modular process, presenting the potential for unifying research and operational aspects of climate 

science. 


Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 128-139 



DOI 10.1002/wcc.95 

ISSN 1757-7780 

URL http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC95.html 



History, uses, and effects of fire in the Appalachians 


Author David H. van Lear 


Abstract Description: History of Fire in the Southern Appalachians Ecological and meteorological evidence suggests that 

lightning-caused fires were a major environmental force shaping the vegetation of the Southeastern United 

States for millions of years before Indians arrived in America. Lightning served as a mutagenic agent and as a 

factor in natural selection which forced species to adapt or perish. Before man, fires caused by lightning created 

and maintained the pine-grasslands of the Southeast, as well as influenced the broad, adjacent ecotones which 

included hard-wood vegetation (Komarek 1965, 1974) 

Report Number GTR-SE-054 



Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station 


Pages 20 p. 

URL http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/191 



Notes: 

Citation: 

van Lear, David H.; Waldrop, Thomas A. 1989. History, Uses, and Effects of Fire in the Appalachians. Gen. Tech. Rep. SE-54. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 20 p. 

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Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carbon cycle 



Author Heather Almquist 

Author Hans Asnong 


Author José S. Carrión 

Author Marie-Jose Gaillard 

Author Konrad Gajewski 

Author Jean N. Haas 

Author Simon G. Haberle 

Author Philippe Hadorn 

Author Serge D. Müller 


Author Isabelle Richoz 

Author M. Rösch 

Author Maria F. Sánchez Goñi 

Author Henrik von Stedingk 

Author A. C. Stevenson 

Author B. Talon 

Author Christophe Tardy 


Author Elling Tryterud 

Author Lucia Wick 

Author Katherine J. Willis 

Abstract Fire regimes have changed during the Holocene due to changes in climate, vegetation, and in human practices. 

Here, we hypothesise that changes in fire regime may have affected the global CO₂ concentration in the 

atmosphere through the Holocene. Our data are based on quantitative reconstructions of biomass burning 

deduced from stratified charcoal records from Europe, and South-, Central- and North America, and Oceania to 

test the fire-carbon release hypothesis. In Europe the significant increase of fire activity is dated ≈ 6000 cal. yr 

ago. In north-eastern North America burning activity was greatest before 7500 years ago, very low between 

7500–3000 years, and has been increasing since 3000 years ago. In tropical America, the pattern is more 

complex and apparently latitudinally zonal. Maximum burning occurred in the southern Amazon basin and in 

Central America during the middle Holocene, and during the last 2000 years in the northern Amazon basin. In 

Oceania, biomass burning has decreased since a maximum 5000 years ago. Biomass burning has broadly 

increased in the Northern and Southern hemispheres throughout the second half of the Holocene associated with 

changes in climate and human practices. Global fire indices parallel the increase of atmospheric CO₂ 

concentration recorded in Antarctic ice cores. Future issues on carbon dynamics relatively to biomass burning 

are discussed to improve the quantitative reconstructions. 

Publication Chemosphere 

Volume 49 

Issue 8 

Pages 845-863 


Journal Abbr Chemosphere 

DOI 10.1016/S0045-6535(02)00385-5 

ISSN 0045-6535 


Extra Keywords: fire; atmospheric carbon dynamics; Europe; North America; South America; Southeast Asia. 



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Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change 


Author Jed O. Kaplan 

Author Kristen M. Krumhardt 

Author Erle C. Ellis 


Author Carsten Lemmen 

Author Kees Klein Goldewijk 

Abstract Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to 

improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, 

agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. 

To quantify the role that humans played in the global carbon cycle over the Holocene, we developed a new, 

annually resolved inventory of anthropogenic land cover change from 8000 years ago to the beginning of 

large-scale industrialization (ad 1850). This inventory is based on a simple relationship between population and 

land use observed in several European countries over preindustrial time. Using this data set, and an alternative 

scenario based on the HYDE 3.1 land use data base, we forced the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model in a 

series of continuous simulations to evaluate the impacts of humans on terrestrial carbon storage during the 

preindustrial Holocene. Our model setup allowed us to quantify the importance of land degradation caused by 

repeated episodes of land use followed by abandonment. By 3 ka BP, cumulative carbon emissions caused by 

anthropogenic land cover change in our new scenario ranged between 84 and 102 Pg, translating to c. 7 ppm of 

atmospheric CO₂. By ad 1850, emissions were 325–357 Pg in the new scenario, in contrast to 137–189 Pg when 

driven by HYDE. Regional events that resulted in local emissions or uptake of carbon were often balanced by 

contrasting patterns in other parts of the world. While we cannot close the carbon budget in the current study, 

simulated cumulative anthropogenic emissions over the preindustrial Holocene are consistent with the ice core 

record of atmospheric δ¹³CO₂ and support the hypothesis that anthropogenic activities led to the stabilization of 

atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a level that made the world substantially warmer than it otherwise would be. 


Volume 21 

Issue 5 

Pages 775-791 



DOI 10.1177/0959683610386983 

ISSN 0959-6836 


Extra Keywords: agricultural intensification; anthropogenic land cover change; dynamic global vegetation model; 

global carbon cycle; Holocene CO₂; prehistory. 



Holocene changes in semiarid pinyon-juniper woodlands: Response to climate, fire, and human 

activities in the US Great Basin 


Author Richard F. Miller 

Author Peter E. Wigand 



Volume 44 

Issue 7 

Pages 465-474 


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DOI 10.2307/1312298 

ISSN 1525-3244 

Short Title Holocene changes in semiarid pinyon-juniper woodlands 




Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago 


Author Richard B. Alley 

Author Paul A. Mayewski 

Author Todd Sowers 

Author Minze Stuiver 

Author Kendrick C. Taylor 

Author Peter U. Clark 

Abstract The most prominent Holocene climatic event in Greenland ice-core proxies, with approximately half the 

amplitude of the Younger Dryas, occurred ~8000 to 8400 yr ago. This Holocene event affected regions well 

beyond the North Atlantic basin, as shown by synchronous increases in windblown chemical indicators together 

with a significant decrease in methane. Widespread proxy records from the tropics to the north polar regions 

show a short-lived cool, dry, or windy event of similar age. The spatial pattern of terrestrial and marine changes 

is similar to that of the Younger Dryas event, suggesting a role for North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. 

Possible forcings identified thus far for this Holocene event are small, consistent with recent model results 

indicating high sensitivity and strong linkages in the climatic system. 


Volume 25 

Issue 6 

Pages 483–486 



DOI 10.1130/0091-7613(1997)0252.3.CO;2 

ISSN 0091-7613 

URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/doi/10.1130/0091-7613(1997)0252.3.CO;2 



Holocene fire activity as a record of past environmental change 




Abstract Introduction: Fire is the dominant form of natural disturbance in temperate forests, and, as such, it serves as a 

process that modulates forest susceptibility to climate change, disease, and other forms of disturbance. Fire has 

been identified as an important catalyst of vegetation change during rapid climate shifts in the past (e.g. T. Clark 

et al., 1996; Swetnam&Betancourt, 1998), and it has been implicated as the primary agent of ecosystem change 

in the future (e.g. Overpeck et al., 1990, 2003; Watson et al., 2000). At the global scale, biomass burning is 

considered an important but poorly understood process in the global carbon cycle, one that releases greenhouse 

gases, aerosols, and particulates to the atmosphere but also sequesters carbon as inert charred matter and ash 

(Cofer et al., 1997; Watson et al., 2000). At the regional scale, fire plays an essential role in maintaining the 

integrity of forest ecosystems (MacNeil,2000; Mills & Lugo, 2001; Nature, 2000). Because of fire’s importance 

as an ecosystem process at large and small scales, it is necessary to understand: (1) the response of fires to past, 

present, and future climate change for global change assessments; and (2) the role of fire in maintaining forest 

322 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


health and promoting ecosystem change for better forest management. Like many types of paleoenvironmental 

data, information on past fires can be interpreted in climatic terms as well as used as an indicator of how 

particular ecosystems respond to known climate changes. The ultimate objective of paleoenvironmental 

research is to do both – understand the cause and ecological consequences of climate change. Two sources of 

paleoecological data provide information on fire-climate interactions. One source, dendrochronological data, 

includes records of fire-scarred tree-rings and maps showing the distribution of forest-stand ages following fire 

(see Agee, 1993; Johnson & Gutsell, 1994, for information on methods). Dendrochronological methods provide 

highly resolved spatial reconstructions of past fire activity, but they are limited by the age of living trees, which 

spans only the last few centuries in most places. This relatively short duration makes it difficult to examine the 

role of fire during periods of major climate change. Moreover, tree-ring records are best suited to reconstruct 

low-intensity ground fires that do not kill trees and often offer little information on the frequency of standreplacing 

crown fires, which have become more widespread in western forests in the last two decades. The 

second data source is the record of particulate charcoal deposited in lakes and wetlands during and shortly after 

a fire (see Whitlock & Anderson, 2003; Whitlock & Larsen, 2002, for information on methods). Fire 

occurrence is identified by sedimentary layers with abundant or above-background levels of charcoal particles. 

The size and exact location of fires cannot be resolved with the specificity of dendrochronological studies, but 

charcoal records have the advantage of providing a fire reconstruction that spans thousands of years and 

encompasses periods of major climate change and vegetation reorganization. Annually resolved fire 

reconstructions are possible, but in most cases fire history is described in terms of fire episodes (one or more 

fires) during a time span of years to a few decades. Fire was recognized as a past and present link between 

climate change and vegetation response in one chapter (Davis, 1965) of the review volume for the VII Congress 

of the International Association for Quaternary Research (Wright & Frey, 1965). Since 1965, research in fire 

history has undergone a renaissance that has improved the use of fire data as both a paleoclimatic and 

paleoecologic tool. Recent studies consider fire as a proximal cause of vegetation changes and also recognize 

that vegetation patterns (both spatially and temporally) help shape fire regimes. The role of climate as the 

ultimate control of both vegetation composition and fire regimes is also widely recognized. In this chapter, we 

discuss some of the recent advances, including efforts to: (1) better understand the processes that introduce 

charcoal into lakes and wetlands; (2) refine the methods to interpret these deposits; and (3) evaluate the 

response of fire to climate and vegetation controls operating on different time scales based on paleoecological 

evidence, paleoclimate simulations, and modern assessments. We focus this review on research in North 

America. 

Publication Developments in Quaternary Science 

Volume 1 

Pages 479-490 

Date 2003 

Journal Abbr Developments in Quaternary Science 

DOI 10.1016/S1571-0866(03)01022-4 

ISSN 1571-0866 




Holocene fire and occupation in Amazonia: records from two lake districts 


Author M. B Bush 

Author M. R Silman 

Author M. B De Toledo 

Author C. Listopad 

Author W. D Gosling 

Author C. Williams 

Author P. E De Oliveira 

Author C. Krisel 

Publication Philosophical Transactions B 

Volume 362 

Issue 1478 

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Pages 209 

Date 2007 

ISSN 0962-8436 

Short Title Holocene fire and occupation in Amazonia 





Attachments 


Holocene fire and vegetation along environmental gradients in the Northern Rocky Mountains 




Author Patrick Bartlein 

Author Kurt Kipfmueller 

Abstract Holocene records of fire, vegetation, and climate were reconstructed from four sites in the Bitterroot Range 

region of the Northern Rocky Mountains in order to examine the vegetation and fire histories and evaluate the 

hypothesis proposed by Whitlock and Bartlein (1993) regarding the effects of increased summer insolation on 

precipitation patterns. Vegetation history in the series of sites was broadly similar. In the late-glacial period, the 

pollen data suggest open parkland dominated by Picea or alpine meadow, which reflect conditions cooler and 

drier than present. These open forests were replaced in the early to middle Holocene by forests composed 

mainly of Pinus and Pseudotsuga, which suggest conditions warmer than present. Modern forest compositions 

were in place by ca 3000 cal yr BP, and small variations in the timing of the vegetation shifts reflect local 

differences among sites. The long-term trends in fire occurrence support the hypothesis proposed by Whitlock 

and Bartlein (1993) that precipitation regimes were sharpened during the early Holocene summer insolation 

maximum but their location has remained unchanged as a result of topographic constraints. Sites located in 

areas currently summer-dry were drier-than-present during the early Holocene and fires were more frequent. 

Conversely, sites located in the areas that are summer-wet at present were wetter-than-present in the early 

Holocene, and fires were less frequent. On millennial time scales it appears that the climate boundary is 

controlled by topography and does not shift. 


Volume 24 

Issue 20-21 

Pages 2281-2300 




ISSN 02773791 




Holocene fire history of a coastal temperate rain forest based on soil charcoal radiocarbon dates 


Author D. G Gavin 

Author L. B Brubaker 

Author K. P Lertzman 

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Volume 84 

Issue 1 

Pages 186–201 

Date 2003 

ISSN 0012-9658 





Attachments 


Holocene fire history of a coastal temperate rain forest based on soil charcoal radiocarbon dates 





Abstract The long-term role of fire in coastal temperate rain forest is poorly understood. To determine the historical role 

of fire on western Vancouver Island (British Columbia, Canada), we constructed a long-term spatially explicit 

fire history and examined the spatial and temporal distribution of fire during the Holocene. Two fire-history 

parameters (time-since-fire [TSF] and fire extent) were related to three landscape parameters (landform [hill 

slope or terrace], aspect, and forest composition) at 83 sites in a 730-ha low-elevation (less than ~200 m) area 

of a mountainous watershed. We dated fires using tree rings (18 sites) and 120 soil-charcoal radiocarbon dates 

(65 sites). Comparisons among multiple radiocarbon dates indicated a high probability that the charcoal dated at 

each site represented the most recent fire, though we expect greater error in TSF estimates at sites where 

charcoal was very old (>6000 yr) and was restricted to mineral soil horizons. TSF estimates ranged from 64 to 

~12 220 yr; 45% of the sites have burned in the last 1000 yr, whereas 20% of the sites have not burned for over 

6000 yr. Differences in median TSF were more significant between landform types or across aspects than among 

forest types. Median TSF was significantly greater on terraces (4410 yr) than on hill slopes (740 yr). On hill 

slopes, all south-facing and southwest-facing sites have burned within the last 1000 yr compared to only 27% of 

north- and east-facing sites burning over the same period. Comparison of fire dates among neighboring sites 

indicated that fires rarely extended >250 m. During the late Holocene, landform controls have been strong, 

resulting in the bias of fires to south-facing hillslopes and thus allowing late-successional forest structure to 

persist for thousands of years in a large portion of the watershed. In contrast, the early Holocene regional 

climate and forest composition likely resulted in larger landscape fires that were not strongly controlled by 

landform factors. The millennial-scale TSF detected in this study supports the distinction of coastal temperate 

rain forest as being under a fundamentally different disturbance regime than other Pacific Northwest forests to 

the east and south. 


Volume 84 

Issue 1 

Pages 186-201 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0186:HFHOAC]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084%5B0186%3AHFHOAC%5D2.0.CO%3B2? 

journalCode=ecol 

Extra Keywords: British Columbia, Canada; climate–terrain–fire interaction; climate change; coastal temperate rain 

forest; disturbance, long-term role; fire history; Holocene fire history; Pacific Northwest forests; paleoecology; 

radiocarbon dating; soil charcoal. 


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HOLOCENE FIRE HISTORY OF A COASTAL TEMPERATE RAIN FOREST BASED ON SOIL 

CHARCOAL RADIOCARBON DATES 






Volume 84 

Issue 1 

Pages 186-201 

Date 01/2003 


DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0186:HFHOAC]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 


/0012-9658%282003%29084%5B0186%3AHFHOAC%5D2.0.CO%3B2 




Holocene fire-related alluvial-fan deposition and climate in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests, 

Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, USA 


Author Jedediah D. Frechette 


Abstract We employed ¹⁴C dating of alluvial-fan deposits in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of the Sacramento 

Mountains, New Mexico to document Holocene fires and related geomorphic impacts. Rapid aggradation by 

charcoal-rich debris flows occurred in the middle Holocene (5800–4200 cal. yr BP), indicating episodic 

sedimentation following severe fires. Fire-related deposition virtually ceased ~4200 cal. yr BP, with most fan 

deposits indicating slower aggradation with cumulic soil development until 1800 cal. yr BP. From 1800 to 500 

cal. yr BP, fire-related sedimentation increased again, although not to middle Holocene levels. A peak in 

fire-related sedimentation c. 650 cal. yr BP corresponds to widespread severe drought in the southwestern USA. 

Limited fire-related sedimentation is evident from 500 to 100 cal. yr BP, consistent with ‘Little Ice Age’ climate 

and tree-ring records indicating frequent low-severity fires, although at least one severe fire burned in this 

interval. Increased fire-related sedimentation corresponds to generally warmer conditions. We infer that higher 

climate variability was also involved, including multidecadal wet periods that limited surface fires and allowed 

stand densities to increase, promoting severe fires in subsequent severe droughts. Fire has contributed 

significantly to Holocene valley aggradation. Local fan channel incision followed recent fires, but major 

nineteenth–twentieth century arroyo cutting appears unprecedented during the Holocene. 


Volume 19 

Issue 4 

Pages 639-651 



DOI 10.1177/0959683609104031 

ISSN 0959-6836 


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Extra Keywords: paleofire; alluvial fans; sedimentary charcoal; erosion; geomorphology radiocarbon; fire history; 

ponderosa pine; New Mexico. 



Holocene history of cedar and Native Indian cultures of the North American Pacific Coast 


Author Richard J. Hebda 

Author Rolf W. Mathewes 

Abstract A comparison of paleobotanical records with archeological and ethnographic evidence from the Pacific 

Northwest shows a strong correlation between the expansion of Western red cedar (Thuja plicata) in coastal 

forests between 5000 and 2500 years ago and the evolution of a massive woodworking technology by native 

cultures. This suggests that an important component of cultural development was environmentally constrained 

until large cedar trees, the basic resource for canoe-building and plank-house construction, had become 

available in late Holocene time. 


Volume 225 

Issue 4663 

Pages 711 -713 



DOI 10.1126/science.225.4663.711 

ISSN 1095-9203 

URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/225/4663/711.abstract 



Homogenization of northern U.S. Great Lakes forests due to land use 


Author Lisa A. Schulte 



Author Laura C. Merrick 


Abstract Human land use of forested regions has intensified worldwide in recent decades, threatening long-term 

sustainability. Primary effects include conversion of land cover or reversion to an earlier stage of successional 

development. Both types of change can have cascading effects through ecosystems; however, the long-term 

effects where forests are allowed to regrow are poorly understood. We quantify the regional-scale consequences 

of a century of Euro-American land use in the northern U.S. Great Lakes region using a combination of 

historical Public Land Survey records and current forest inventory and land cover data. Our analysis shows a 

distinct and rapid trajectory of vegetation change toward historically unprecedented and simplified conditions. 

In addition to overall loss of forestland, current forests are marked by lower species diversity, functional 

diversity, and structural complexity compared to pre-Euro-American forests. Today’s forest is marked by 

dominance of broadleaf deciduous species—all 55 ecoregions that comprise the region exhibit a lower relative 

dominance of conifers in comparison to the pre-Euro-American period. Aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. 

tremuloides) and maple (Acer saccharum and A. rubrum) species comprise the primary deciduous species that 

have replaced conifers. These changes reflect the cumulative effects of local forest alterations over the region 

and they affect future ecosystem conditions as well as the ecosystem services they provide. 


Volume 22 

Issue 7 

327 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Pages 1089-1103 



DOI 10.1007/s10980-007-9095-5 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/806kj6l83408076m/ 

Extra Keywords: sustainability; land use/land cover change; ecosystem simplification; pre-Euro-American settlement. 



How climate and vegetation influence the fire regime of the Alaskan boreal biome: The Holocene 

perspective 









Abstract We synthesize recent results from lake-sediment studies of Holocene fire-climatevegetation interactions in 

Alaskan boreal ecosystems. At the millennial time scale, the most robust feature of these records is an increase 

in fire occurrence with the establishment of boreal forests dominated by Picea mariana: estimated mean 

fire-return intervals decreased from ≥300 yrs to as low as ~80 yrs. This fire-vegetation relationship occurred at 

all sites in interior Alaska with charcoal-based fire reconstructions, regardless of the specific time of P. mariana 

arrival during the Holocene. The establishment of P. mariana forests was associated with a regional climatic 

trend toward cooler/wetter conditions. Because such climatic change should not directly enhance fire 

occurrence, the increase in fire frequency most likely reflects the influence of highly flammable P. mariana 

forests, which are more conducive to fire ignition and spread than the preceding vegetation types (tundra, and 

woodlands/forests dominated by Populus or Picea glauca). Increased lightning associated with altered 

atmospheric circulation may have also played a role in certain areas where fire frequency increased around 

4000 calibrated years before present (BP) without an apparent increase in the abundance of P. mariana. When 

viewed together, the paleo-fire records reveal that fire histories differed among sites in the same modern fire 

regime and that the fire regime and plant community similar to those of today became established at different 

times. Thus the spatial array of regional fire regimes was non-static through the Holocene. However, the 

patterns and causes of the spatial variation remain largely unknown. Advancing our understanding of climatefire-vegetation 

interactions in the Alaskan boreal biome will require a network of charcoal records across 

various ecoregions, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions, and improved knowledge of how sedimentary 

charcoal records fire events. 


Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 829–846 



DOI 10.1007/s11027-005-9015-4 


Short Title How climate and vegetation influence the fire regime of the Alaskan boreal biome 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/m1j7211402833287/ 

Extra Keywords: Alaska; boreal forests; charcoal records; climate change; fire regime; Holocene. 



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How close are we to a predictive science of the biosphere? 


Author Paul R. Moorcroft 

Abstract In just 20 years, the field of biosphere–atmosphere interactions has gone from a nascent discipline to a central 

area of modern climate change research. The development of terrestrial biosphere models that predict the 

responses of ecosystems to climate and increasing CO₂ levels has highlighted several mechanisms by which 

changes in ecosystem composition and function might alter regional and global climate. However, results from 

empirical studies suggest that ecosystem responses can differ markedly from the predictions of terrestrial 

biosphere models. As I discuss here, the challenge now is to connect terrestrial biosphere models to empirical 

ecosystem measurements. Only by systematically evaluating the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models 

against suites of ecosystem observations and experiments measurements will a true predictive science of the 

biosphere be achieved. 

Publication Trends in Ecology & Evolution 

Volume 21 

Issue 7 

Pages 400-407 


Journal Abbr Trends Ecol. Evol. 

DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2006.04.009 

ISSN 0169-5347 




How far could a squirrel travel in the treetops?: A prehistory of the southern forest 


Author Paul B. Hamel 

Author Edward R. Buckner 


Date 1998 March 20-25 

Proceedings Title Prehistory of the Southern Forest 

Conference Name Transactions of the 63rd North American Wildlife and Natural Resources conference 

Place Orlando, FL. 

Publisher Washington, DC: Wildlife Management Institute 

Volume 63 

Pages 309–315 

Short Title How far could a squirrel travel in the treetops? 

URL http://westinstenv.org/histwl/2010/02/21/how-far-could-a-squirrel-travel-in-the-treetops-a-prehistory-of-thesouthern-forest/ 

Archive http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/453 



How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? 



Author Mark W. Schwartz 

Author Anantha M. Prasad 

329 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract • Aim: We describe and use a model, SHIFT, to estimate potential migration due to climate change over the 

next 100 years. • Location: Eastern United States. • Methods: Five species, currently confined to the eastern 

half of the United States and not extending into Canada, were used to assess migration potential: Diospyros 

virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda 

(loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). SHIFT is a matrix simulation model using 

simple inverse power functions to provide a distance decay of seed dispersal and is driven primarily by the 

abundance of the species near the boundary, the forest density within and beyond the boundary, and the 

distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, the model creates an estimate of the 

probability that each unoccupied cell will become colonized over a period of 100 years. SHIFT is a ‘fat-tailed’ 

migration model that allows rare very long distance dispersal events and colonization could occur up to 500 km 

beyond the current distribution boundary. Model outputs were analysed using transects through sections 

showing relatively low and high colonization probabilities as a result of low and high densities of target trees 

(high source strength) as well as high densities of forest (high sink strength). We also assess migration potential 

for species by concentric rings around the current boundary. • Results: Model outputs show the generally 

limited nature of migration for all five species over 100 years. There is a relatively high probability of 

colonization within a zone of 10–20 km (depending on habitat quality and species abundance) from the current 

boundary, but a small probability of colonization where the distance from the current boundary exceeds about 

20 km. Whether biologically plausible or not, rare very long distance migration events are not sufficient to 

rescue migration. Species abundance (the source strength of migration) near the range boundary carried 

relatively more influence than percentage forest cover (sink strength) in determining migration rates. • Main 

conclusion: The transect evaluation revealed the importance of abundance of the species near the boundary, 

indicating that rare species may have much more difficulty in unassisted northward migration due to climate 

change. The concentric rings analysis of the model outputs showed that only the first 10–20 km of area would 

have a reasonably high probability of colonization. Rare, long-distance events permit colonization of remote 

outliers, but much more needs to be understood about the likelihood of these rare events to predict the 

frequency of outlier establishment. 


Volume 13 

Issue 3 

Pages 209–219 

Date May 2004 


DOI 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004.00093.x 

ISSN 1466-822X 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004.00093.x/full 


Extra Keywords: climate change; Diospyros virginiana; fragmented habitat; global warming; Liquidambar styraciflua; 

migration; Oxydendrum arboreum; Pinus taeda; Quercus falcata; United States. 



How increasing CO₂ and climate change affect forests 


Author Robin Lambert Graham 





Volume 40 

Issue 8 

Pages 575-587 



DOI 10.2307/1311298 

ISSN 00063568 

330 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Extra How increasing CO₂ and climate change affect forests: At many spatial and temporal scales, there will be forest 

responses that will be affected by human activities 



How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires 


Author Richard C. Rothermel 

Abstract Research Summary: This manual documents the procedures for estimating the rate of forward spread, intensity, 

flame length, and size of fires burning in forests and rangelands. It contains instructions for obtaining fuel and 

weather data, calculating fire behavior, and interpreting the results for application to actual fire problems. 

Potential uses include fire prediction, fire planning, dispatching, prescribed fires, and monitoring managed fires. 

Included are sections that deal with fuel model selection, fuel mOisture, wind, slope, calculations with 

nomograms, TI-59 calculations, point source, line fire, interpretations of outputs, and growth predictions. 




Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 


Pages 161 p. 


Extra Keywords: fire behavior prediction; fire spread; fire intensity; fire growth. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Rothermel, Richard C. 1983. How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-143. Ogden, 

UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 161 p. 

How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades? 


Author Judith L. Lean 

Author David H. Rind 

Abstract Reliable forecasts of climate change in the immediate future are difficult, especially on regional scales, where 

natural climate variations may amplify or mitigate anthropogenic warming in ways that numerical models 

capture poorly. By decomposing recent observed surface temperatures into components associated with ENSO, 

volcanic and solar activity, and anthropogenic influences, we anticipate global and regional changes in the next 

two decades. From 2009 to 2014, projected rises in anthropogenic influences and solar irradiance will increase 

global surface temperature 0.15 ± 0.03°C, at a rate 50% greater than predicted by IPCC. But as a result of 

declining solar activity in the subsequent five years, average temperature in 2019 is only 0.03 ± 0.01°C warmer 

than in 2014. This lack of overall warming is analogous to the period from 2002 to 2008 when decreasing solar 

irradiance also countered much of the anthropogenic warming. We further illustrate how a major volcanic 

eruption and a super ENSO would modify our global and regional temperature projections. 


Volume 36 

Issue 15 

Pages L15708 (5 p.) 

331 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM




DOI 10.1029/2009GL038932 

ISSN 0094-8276 


Extra Keywords: climate forecast. 



Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes 


Author Seung-Ki Min 

Author Xuebin Zhang 

Author Francis W. Zwiers 


Abstract Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. 

Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of 

heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable 

projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly 

exponentially with temperature—and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical 

expectation—it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for 

increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most 

previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through 

model–model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed 

to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of 

data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed 

and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century 

analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and 

thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to 

underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming. 


Volume 470 

Issue 7334 

Pages 378-381 



DOI 10.1038/nature09763 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Human domination of Earth's Ecosystems 


Author Peter M. Vitousek 


Author Jane Lubchenco 


Abstract Human alteration of Earth is substantial and growing. Between one-third and one-half of the land surface has 

been transformed by human action; the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by nearly 

30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; more atmospheric nitrogen is fixed by humanity 

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than by all natural terrestrial sources combined; more than half of all accessible surface fresh water is put to use 

by humanity; and about one-quarter of the bird species on Earth have been driven to extinction. By these and 

other standards, it is clear that we live on a human-dominated planet. 


Volume 277 

Issue 5325 

Pages 494 -499 



DOI 10.1126/science.277.5325.494 

ISSN 1095-9203 




Human-induced changes in wind, temperature and relative humidity during Santa Ana events 

Type Document 



Author Jinwon Kim 

Abstract The frequency and character of Southern California’s Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-kmresolution 

downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time periods of the National Center for Atmospheric 

Research Community Climate System Model global climate change scenario run. The number of Santa Ana 

days per winter season is approximately 20% fewer in the mid-21st century compared to the late-20th century. 

Since the only systematic and sustained difference between these two periods is the level of anthropogenic 

forcing, this effect is anthropogenic in origin. In both time periods, Santa Ana winds are partly katabaticallydriven 

by a temperature difference between the cold wintertime air pooling in the desert against coastal 

mountains and the adjacent warm air over the ocean. However, this katabatic mechanism is significantly weaker 

during the mid-21st century time period. This occurs because of the well-documented differential warming 

associated with transient climate change, with more warming in the desert interior than over the ocean. Thus the 

mechanism responsible for the decrease in Santa Ana frequency originates from a well-known aspect of the 

climate response to increasing greenhouse gases, but cannot be understood or simulated without mesoscale 

atmospheric dynamics. In addition to the change in Santa Ana frequency, we investigate changes during Santa 

Anas in two other meteorological variables known to be relevant to fire weather conditions -- relative humidity 

and temperature. We find a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in temperature. Both these 

changes would favor fire. A fire behavior model accounting for changes in wind, temperature, and relative 

humidity simultaneously is necessary to draw firm conclusions about future fire risk and growth associated with 

Santa Ana events. 

Publisher Submitted to PIER Climate change special issue of Climatic Change 

Date 2010 

URL http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/spotlight-01-2010.html 

Loc. in Archive UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 

Extra Keywords: regional climate; climate change; downslope winds; fire weather. 



Humans, topography, and wildland fire: The ingredients for long-term patterns in ecosystems 



Author Daniel C. Dey 

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Abstract Three factors, human population density, topography, and culture interact to create temporal and spatial 

differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These factors can be quantitatively related to fire 

frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in 

ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term changes in anthropogenic fire regimes. Topographic roughness is 

positively related by a regression equation to the length of mean fire intervals indicating that fires are less 

frequent in rough than in flat terrain during periods of low human population density. The strength and direction 

of this relationship diminishes as the frequency of anthropogenic ignitions increases to the point that the fuel 

environment is pyro-saturated. Human population density is a master variable in understanding anthropogenic 

fire regimes and topographic effects. The interactions of these factors through time creates at least two stages in 

anthropogenic fire regimes: an Ignition Limited Stage in which fire frequency is function of human population 

density, and a Fuel Limited Stage during which fire frequency is limited by fuel production and is independent 

of increases in human population density. 


Proceedings Title Proceedings: Workshop on Fire, People, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape 

Conference Name Workshop on Fire, People, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape. Richmond, Kentucky, March 12-14, 2000 


Publisher United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station 

Pages 28–35 

Series General Technical Report NE-274 

Short Title Humans, topography, and wildland fire 



Extra Keywords: population density; Fuel Limited Stage; anthropogenic; topography; spatial differences; wildland 

fire; ecosystems. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Guyette, Richard P.; Dey, Daniel C. 2000. Humans, Topograpghy, and Wildland Fire: The Ingredients for Long-term Patterns in 

Ecosystems. Proceeding: Workshop on Fire, Peopel, and the Central Hardwoods Landscape. p. 28-35. (2000). 

Identifying ecoregion boundaries 



Abstract This article summarizes the rationale I used in identifying ecoregion boundaries on maps of the United States, 

North America, and the world’s continents, published from 1976 to 1998. The geographic reasoning used in 

drawing boundaries involves 20 principles, which are presented to stimulate discussion and further 

understanding. Brief background and references are provided for the principles. 


Volume 34 

Issue Supplement 1 

Pages 14–26 



DOI 10.1007/s00267-003-0163-6 

ISSN 0364-152X 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/h74827n2m714087j/ 

Extra Keywords: ecosystem geography; ecoregions; mapping; boundaries; United States; North America; world. 



334 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Impact of antecedent climate on fire regimes in coastal California 



Abstract Severe fire weather is a major determinant of fire size in coastal California; however, it is unclear to what extent 

antecedent climate also controls fire activity. This study investigates the relationship between fire activity and 

climate in central coastal and southern California. Climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity 

Index (PDSI), total monthly precipitation, mean monthly maximum temperature and the autumn and winter 

Southern Oscillation Indices (SOI). For both the central coast and the south coast regions there was no 

significant relationship between growing season PDSI, precipitation or temperature and number of fires. When 

examined by season, summer temperatures were positively correlated with number of fires in the central coast 

and autumn PDSI and precipitation were negatively correlated with fire occurrence in the south coast region. 

Area burned was not correlated with any current year climate variables in southern California although, in the 

central coast, drought during spring and autumn were correlated, but explained less than 10% of the variation in 

the area burned. Although there was a modest relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and 

local climate parameters, there was only a relatively weak relationship with fire activity. The importance of 

autumn foehn winds is illustrated by the observation that large fires occur most commonly during the autumn, 

regardless of PDSI. Antecedent climate, however, does appear to play some role in determining the length of the 

fire season on these landscape as PDSI is consistently related to the occurrence of large fires that occur before 

or after the autumn months. 


Volume 13 

Issue 2 

Pages 173–182 



DOI 10.1071/WF03037 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF03037 

Extra Keywords: ENSO; drought; foehn winds. 



Impact of fire suppression on a mixed-conifer forest 


Author David J. Parsons 

Author Steven H. DeBenedetti 

Abstract One hundred years of fire suppression in a mixed-conifer forest which evolved with frequent natural fires has 

shifted successional patterns, increased the density of small trees, produced an unnatural accumulation of 

ground fuels. Analysis of species composition, vegetation structure and age distribution in each of four forest 

types within the mixed-conifer zone of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, has documented a 

substantial increase in young, shade tolerant white fir in each type. The original dominant species have 

decreased in relative abundance in most cases. The sequioa type has been most affected by the fire suppression 

policy. Giant sequioa show poor reproduction in the absence of fire. The sequoia type also exhibits the greatest 

accumulation of ground fuels. The ponderosa pine, white fir and mixed forest types also show successional 

changes as well as significant accumulations of flammable ground fuels following a century of fire exclusion. 

The management implications of these findings are discussed. 


Volume 2 

Pages 21–33 

Date 1979 


DOI 10.1016/0378-1127(79)90034-3 

335 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


ISSN 0378-1127 




Impact of multiple fires on stand structure and tree regeneration in central Appalachian oak forests 


Author Stephen A. Signell 


Author Joseph C. Hovis 

Author Shannon W. Henry 

Abstract The National Guard Training Center at Fort Indiantown Gap (NGTC-FIG) near Harrisburg, PA, has experienced 

frequent fires since the 1950s on the ridges and 1980s in the valleys as a result of military training exercises. 

This represented a unique opportunity to investigate the role of recent and repeated fire in oak (Quercus) forests 

in the eastern USA. We investigated four frequently burned and two unburned sites replicated in ridge and 

valley ecosystems. Burned sites generally had lower tree density and a higher proportion of overstory oak 

species (64–92% relative importance value) than unburned stands (47–49% importance). Oak saplings averaged 

875 ha⁻¹ in burned forests and 31 ha⁻¹ in unburned forests. Red maple (Acer rubrum, L.), the most aggressive 

oak replacement species in the eastern USA, had overstory importance of 7% and 24% in burned and unburned 

stands, respectively. Oak saplings ranged from 824 to 1545 ha⁻¹ in three of the four burned stands and 0–62 ha⁻¹ 

in the unburned stands. Oak sapling density was only 62 ha⁻¹ one recently (2002) burned stand where fire had 

not resulted in reduced tree density; this stand had the highest tree density of all sampled stands. There were no 

red maple saplings in three of the four burned stands. Oak saplings were most abundant when overstory density 

was less than 400 trees/ha and understory tree density was less than 200 trees/ha. When overstory or understory 

tree density exceeded 400 and 200 trees/ha, respectively, oak regeneration was virtually absent. The results of 

this study suggest that periodic fire often reduces overstory and understory stand density and promotes 

successful regeneration of relatively shade intolerant oak species in the eastern USA. However, high tree density 

in forests will retard the development of oak understories and subsequent recruitment, even if periodic burning 

occurs. 


Volume 218 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 146-158 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.07.006 

ISSN 03781127 


Extra Keywords: fire; oak recruitment; red maple; canopy density; Pennsylvania. 



Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol 

concentrations in the western United States 


Author Dominick V. Spracklen 

Author Loretta J. Mickley 

Author Jennifer A. Logan 

Author Rynda C. Hudman 

Author Rosemarie Yevich 

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Abstract We investigate the impact of climate change on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the 

western United States. We regress observed area burned onto observed meteorological fields and fire indices 

from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system and find that May–October mean temperature and fuel moisture 

explain 24–57% of the variance in annual area burned in this region. Applying meteorological fields calculated 

by a general circulation model (GCM) to our regression model, we show that increases in temperature cause 

annual mean area burned in the western United States to increase by 54% by the 2050s relative to the present 

day. Changes in area burned are ecosystem dependent, with the forests of the Pacific Northwest and Rocky 

Mountains experiencing the greatest increases of 78 and 175%, respectively. Increased area burned results in 

near doubling of wildfire carbonaceous aerosol emissions by midcentury. Using a chemical transport model 

driven by meteorology from the same GCM, we calculate that climate change will increase summertime organic 

carbon (OC) aerosol concentrations over the western United States by 40% and elemental carbon (EC) 

concentrations by 20% from 2000 to 2050. Most of this increase (75% for OC and 95% for EC) is caused by 

larger wildfire emissions with the rest caused by changes in meteorology and for OC by increased monoterpene 

emissions in a warmer climate. Such an increase in carbonaceous aerosol would have important consequences 

for western U.S. air quality and visibility. 


Volume 114 

Issue 20 

Pages D20301 (17 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2008JD010966 

ISSN 0148–0227 


Extra Keywords: biomass burning; climate change; aerosol. 



Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest 


Author Mike Flannigan 

Author Brian Stocks 

Author Merritt Turetsky 

Author Mike Wotton 

Abstract Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to 

weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. 

Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the 

circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire 

activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a 

disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in 

area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be 

only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their 

current levels of effectiveness. 


Volume 15 

Issue 3 

Pages 549-560 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01660.x 

ISSN 1365-2486 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01660.x 

337 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Extra Keywords: carbon balance; circumboreal forest; climate change; fire management; forest fires; peatlands. 



Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity 



Author John E. Walsh 

Author Jonathan M. Graham 

Author Daniel H. Mann 


Abstract Fire is the keystone disturbance in the Alaskan boreal forest and is highly influenced by summer weather 

patterns. Records from the last 53 years reveal high variability in the annual area burned in Alaska and 

corresponding high variability in weather occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here we use multiple 

linear regression (MLR) to systematically explore the relationships between weather variables and the annual 

area burned in Alaska. Variation in the seasonality of the atmospheric circulation-fire linkage is addressed 

through an evaluation of both the East Pacific teleconnection field and a Pacific Decadal Oscillation index 

keyed to an annual fire index. In the MLR, seven explanatory variables and an interaction term collectively 

explain 79% of the variability in the natural logarithm of the number of hectares burned annually by lightningcaused 

fires in Alaska from 1950 to 2003. Average June temperature alone explains one-third of the variability 

in the logarithm of annual area burned. The results of this work suggest that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and 

the East Pacific teleconnection indices can be useful in determining a priori an estimate of the number of 

hectares that will burn in an upcoming season. This information also provides insight into the link between 

ocean-atmosphere interactions and the fire disturbance regime in Alaska. 


Volume 15 

Issue 4 

Pages 1317–1330 



DOI 10.1890/04-0739 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: Alaska boreal forest; East Pacific teleconnection; ecological disturbance regimes; fire regimes; 

multiple linear regression; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; teleconnections. 



Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire 


Author Mike D Flannigan 

Author Meg A Krawchuk 

Author William J de Groot 


Author Lynn M Gowman 

Abstract Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. 

Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and 

possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of 

what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and 

management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot 

of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire 

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seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. 

Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear 

interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued 

global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need 

more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is 

directly attributable to people. 


Volume 18 

Issue 5 

Pages 483-507 



DOI 10.1071/WF08187 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: area burned; carbon; emissions; fire activity; forest fire; intensity; management; modelling; 

occurrence; review; season; severity; weather. 



Increased atmospheric CO₂ during the Middle Eocene 


Author Paul N. Pearson 

Abstract Even without humans, there are many processes that can change the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 

Earth's atmosphere and affect global climate. On page 819 of this issue, Bijl et al. (1) provide the first direct 

evidence that very high CO₂ levels occurred about 40 million years ago during the Middle Eocene Climatic 

Optimum (MECO), one of the hottest intervals in Earth's climate history. The hunt is now on for a geological 

cause for this event—and fingers are pointing at the Himalayan mountain belt. 


Volume 330 

Issue 6005 

Pages 763-764 



DOI 10.1126/science.1197894 


URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6005/763 



Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming 



Author Josef Oberhuber 

Author Andreas Bacher 

Author Monika Esch 


Author Erich Roeckner 

339 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation. 

ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also 

influences the entire global climate system and affects the societies and economies of manycountries. ENSO can 

be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. 

The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during 

the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced 'greenhouse' warming affects, or will affect, 

ENSO. Several global climate models have been applied to transient greenhouse-gas-induced warming 

simulations to address this question, but the results have been debated owing to the inability of the models to 

fully simulate ENSO (because of their coarse equatorial resolution). Here we present results from a global 

climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling 

and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas 

concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean 

result. 


Volume 398 

Issue 6729 

Pages 694–697 



DOI 10.1038/19505 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL www.nature.com/nature/journal/v398/n6729/full/398694a0.html 



Increased fire activity at the Triassic/Jurassic boundary in Greenland due to climate-driven floral change 


Author Claire M. Belcher 

Author Luke Mander 

Author Guillermo Rein 

Author Freddy X. Jervis 

Author Matthew Haworth 

Author Stephen P. Hesselbo 

Author Ian J. Glasspool 

Author Jennifer C. McElwain 

Abstract One of the largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years (Myr) occurred 200 Myr ago, at the 

Triassic/Jurassic boundary. The major floral and faunal turnovers have been linked to a marked increase in 

atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, probably resulting from massive volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic 

Province. Future climate change predictions suggest that fire activity may increase, in part because higher global 

temperatures are thought to increase storminess. Here we use palaeontological reconstructions of the fossil flora 

from East Greenland to assess forest flammability along with records of fossil charcoal preserved in the rocks to 

show that fire activity increased markedly across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. We find a fivefold increase in 

the abundance of fossil charcoal in the earliest Jurassic, which we attribute to a climate-driven shift from a 

prevalence of broad-leaved taxa to a predominantly narrow-leaved assemblage. Our fire calorimetry 

experiments show that narrow leaf morphologies are more flammable than broad-leaved morphologies. We 

suggest that the warming associated with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels favoured a dominance of 

narrow-leaved plants, which, coupled with more frequent lightening strikes, led to an increase in fire activity at 

the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. 


Volume 3 

Issue 6 

Pages 426-429 



340 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


DOI 10.1038/ngeo871 

ISSN 1752-0894 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo871 



Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO₂ 


Author Kees Jan van Groenigen 

Author Craig W. Osenberg 

Author Bruce A. Hungate 

Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) can affect biotic and abiotic conditions in soil, 

such as microbial activity and water content. In turn, these changes might be expected to alter the production 

and consumption of the important greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). However, studies 

on fluxes of N₂O and CH₄ from soil under increased atmospheric CO₂ have not been quantitatively synthesized. 

Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased CO₂ (ranging from 463 to 780 parts per million by volume) 

stimulates both N₂O emissions from upland soils and CH₄ emissions from rice paddies and natural wetlands. 

Because enhanced greenhouse-gas emissions add to the radiative forcing of terrestrial ecosystems, these 

emissions are expected to negate at least 16.6 per cent of the climate change mitigation potential previously 

predicted froman increase in the terrestrial carbon sink under increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Our 

results therefore suggest that the capacity of land ecosystems to slow climate warming has been overestimated. 


Volume 475 

Issue 7355 

Pages 214-216 



DOI 10.1038/nature10176 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific 


Author Tong Lee 

Author Michael J. McPhaden 

Abstract Satellite observations suggest that the intensity of El Niño events in the central equatorial Pacific (CP) has 

almost doubled in the past three decades, with the strongest warming occurring in 2009–10. This is related to the 

increasing intensity as well as occurrence frequency of the so-called CP El Niño events since the 1990s. While 

sea surface temperature (SST) in the CP region during El Niño years has been increasing, those during neutral 

and La Niña years have not. Therefore, the well-documented warming trend of the warm pool in the CP region 

is primarily a result of more intense El Niño events rather than a general rise of background SST. 


Volume 37 

Issue 14 

Pages L14603 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2010GL044007 

341 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


ISSN 0094-8276 


Extra Keywords: El Niño. 



Indian fires as an ecological influence in the Northern Rockies 


Author Stephen W. Barrett 


Abstract The importance of fire as an ecological disturbance in the Northern Rockies is well accepted. Lightning is 

generally thought to have been the main source of ignition prior to settlement by Europeans. But writings of 

explorers and pioneers mention deliberate burning by Indians frequently enough to warrant an investigation of 

its importance. Interviews with descendants of Native Americans and of pioneer settlers in western Montana 

suggest that Indian burning was widespread, had many purposes, but was generally unsystematic. Fire 

chronologies based upon scars on old-growth trees indicate that fire intervals within similar forest types were 

shortest near Indian-use zones. Comparisons of presettlement fire intervals with those calculated from modern 

lightning-fire records suggest that Indian-caused fires substantially augmented lightning fires over large areas. As 

dependence on lightning fires alone may not create or perpetuate certain desirable plant communities or stand 

conditions, prescribed burning may be needed. 


Volume 80 

Issue 10 

Pages 647-651 



ISSN 0022-1201 




Indian use of fire and land clearance in the southern Appalachians 


Author Michael S. DeVivo 

Abstract The myth of an unbroken primeval forest, extending across eastern North America at the dawn of European 

settlement, has been perpetuated in the writings of both laymen and scholars throughout the present century. 

Accounts of sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth century explorers, however, document vast amounts of 

cleared land held by aboriginal inhabitants, who likely populated the continent in much higher numbers than 

have been traditionally accepted. Fire was the principal tool used by the Indians to clear vegetation. Despite 

frequent historical reference to the Indian use of iire and the documentation of Indian old fields, the role of lire 

has been largely underplayed. Fire was implemented for forest management, driving game, and preparing land 

for agriculture. This paper examines the impact of tire and related anthropogenic disturbances on the southern 

Appalachian landscape before white settlement. 


Proceedings Title Fire and the Environment: Ecological and Cultural Perspectives. Proceedings of an International Symposium 

Conference Name Fire and the Environment: Ecological and Cultural Perspectives: Proceedings of an International Symposium; 

1990 March 20-24; Knoxville, TN 


Publisher U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Gen. Tech. Rep. SE-69 

Pages 306–310 

URL http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr/gtr_se069/gtr_se069.htm 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

Archive http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr/gtr_se069/uncaptured/gtr_se069.pdf 



DeVivo, M.S. 1991. Indian use of fire and land clearance in the southern Appalachians. In: S.C. Nodvin and T.A. Waldrop (eds.). Fire 

and the Environment: ecological and cultural perspectives. Proceedings of an International symposium. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. SE-69. Asheville, NC. pp. 306-310. 

Source: 

Nodvin, Stephen C.; Waldrop, Thomas A., eds. 1991. Fire and the environment: ecological and cultural perspectives: Proceedings of 

an international symposium; 1990 March 20-24; Knoxville, TN. Gen. Tech. Rep. SE-69. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 429 pp. 

Indian-set fires in the forests of the northeastern United States 


Author Emily W. B. Russell 

Abstract The historical evidence for the Indians' burning the forests of the northeastern United States is reevaluated. Of 

35 documents that describe vegetation or Indian life in the 16th or 17th centuries, only half mention any use of 

fire except for cooking. Only six purportedly first-hand accounts might refer to purposeful, widespread, and 

frequent use of fire. These six are all consistent with use of fire only locally near camps or villages, or with 

accidentally escaped fires. It is concluded that the frequent use of fires by the Indians to burn the forests was 

probably at most a local occurrence. The Indians' presence in the region and their use of fire for many purposes 

did, however, increase the frequency of fires above the low levels caused by lightning, and thus had some effect 

on the vegetation; for example, grasses characterized the ground cover at small, local, frequently burned sites. 


Volume 64 

Issue 1 

Pages 78–88 



DOI 10.2307/1937331 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Amerinds; fire; Indians; northeastern United States; precolonial vegetation. 



Industrial production of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and limestone 



Abstract The release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels is significantly altering the carbon 

cycle by adding to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and in the more rapidly interacting portions of the 

biosphere and oceans. In order better to assess these changes, the basis for calculating global CO₂ emissions is 

reviewed and new annual values are computed for the period 1800 through 1969. The world average fractions of 

carbon in coal and lignite, estimated from calorific data, are found to be lower than previously assumed. When 

account is taken of handling losses and partial diversion to produce petrochemicals, road asphalt, and other 

non-fuels, the calculated CO₂ emissions are further reduced by several percent even after allowing that most 

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unburned materials eventually oxidize to CO₂ in the environment. On the other hand, the production of CO₂ by 

kilning of limestone adds 1 to 2% to the annual totals. The cumulative increase in carbon in the short term carbon 

cycle, owing to man's industrial and domestic activities up to 1970, is estimated to be 1.12 + 0.14 times 10¹⁷ g (4.1 

+ 0.5 times 10¹⁷g CO₂), or about 18% of the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere during the late nineteenth century. 


Volume 25 

Issue 2 

Pages 174–198 



DOI 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1973.tb01604.x 

ISSN 2153-3490 (online) 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1973.tb01604.x 

/abstract;jsessionid=7251BF5267DF8B024F161D2356B7DED1.d02t02? 

systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+disrupted+3+Sep+from+10-12+BST+for+monthly+maintenance 



Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures 



Author Juerg Luterbacher 

Author Fidel González-Rouco 

Author Simon F. B. Tett 

Author Thomas Crowley 


Abstract It is the regional and seasonal expression of climate change that determines the effect of greenhouse warming on 

ecosystems and society. Whereas anthropogenic influences on European temperatures have been detected over 

the twentieth century, it has been suggested that the impact of external influences on European temperatures 

before 1900 is negligible. Here we use reconstructions of seasonal European land temperature and simulations 

with three global climate models to show that external influences on climate—such as the concentrations of 

stratospheric volcanic aerosols or greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic effects and possibly changes in total 

solar irradiance—have had a discernible influence on European temperatures throughout the past five centuries. 

In particular, we find that external forcing contributes significantly (ρ


Influence of humans and climate on the fire history of a ponderosa pine-mixed conifer forest in the 

southeastern Klamath Mountains, California 


Author Danny L. Fry 


Abstract Fire history of a ponderosa pine-mixed conifer forest was investigated in the Whiskeytown National Recreation 

Area, southeastern Klamath Mountains, California. Fire return intervals were found to be frequent and similar to 

other comparable forests in California. Median fire interval for the six sample plots (1.4–1.7 ha) ranged from 2 

to 4 years (mean range, 4.8–7.4 years). Most fires (93%) occurred late in the growing season or after growth for 

the season had stopped. Early fire activity was frequent and heterogeneous; however, this trend dramatically 

changed ca. 1850 to a less frequent and more homogeneous fire pattern. Euro-American settlement, which was 

active in this area, most likely caused this change by the elimination of Native American ignitions and by 

introducing logging, gold mining, grazing, and early fire suppression. For the period of record (1750–2002), 

years when fires were widespread within the study area were not correlated with drought conditions represented 

by reconstructed climate indices: palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and southern oscillation index. After 

1850 when Euro-American settlement began, widespread fire years were associated with wetter than average 

conditions 3 years preceding the fire year (PDSI, gridpoint #5). Although several recent fire history studies have 

identified fire–climate relationships with these indices in the Pacific Northwest, additional research is needed in 

the southern portion of the region. Possible future extensions from the fire–climate relationships identified 

include: anticipating wildfire extent for future fire seasons, understanding potential alterations in Klamath fire 

regimes forced by climate change or by cultural land use practices, as well as planning fire management 

activities (fuels reduction, prescribed fire, etc.). 


Volume 223 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 428–438 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.12.021 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: climate indices; dendrochronology; fire return interval; fire suppression; seasonality; settlement; 

superposed epoch analysis; Whiskeytown National Recreation Area. 



Influence of long-distance climate teleconnection on seasonality of water temperature in the world's 

largest lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia 


Author Stephen L. Katz 

Author Stephanie E. Hampton 

Author Lyubov R. Izmest'eva 

Author Marianne V. Moore 

Editor Stuart A. Sandin 

Abstract Large-scale climate change is superimposed on interacting patterns of climate variability that fluctuate on 

numerous temporal and spatial scales—elements of which, such as seasonal timing, may have important impacts 

on local and regional ecosystem forcing. Lake Baikal in Siberia is not only the world's largest and most 

biologically diverse lake, but it has exceptionally strong seasonal structure in ecosystem dynamics that may be 

dramatically affected by fluctuations in seasonal timing. We applied time-frequency analysis to a 

near-continuous, 58-year record of water temperature from Lake Baikal to examine how seasonality in the lake 

has fluctuated over the past half century and to infer underlying mechanisms. On decadal scales, the timing of 

seasonal onset strongly corresponds with deviation in the zonal wind intensity as described by length of day 

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(LOD); on shorter scales, these temperature patterns shift in concert with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation 

(ENSO). Importantly, the connection between ENSO and Lake Baikal is gated by the cool and warm periods of 

the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Large-scale climatic phenomena affecting Siberia are apparent in Lake 

Baikal surface water temperature data, dynamics resulting from jet stream and storm track variability in central 

Asia and across the Northern Hemisphere. 


Volume 6 

Issue 2 

Pages e14688 (10 p.) 




ISSN 1932-6203 




Influence of the El Ninõ Southern Oscillation on fire regimes in the Florida Everglades 


Author Brian Beckage 


Author Matthew G. Slocum 

Author Bob Panko 

Abstract Disturbances that are strongly linked to global climatic cycles may occur in a regular, predictable manner that 

affects composition and distribution of ecological communities. The El Ninõ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

influences worldwide precipitation patterns and has occurred with regular periodicity over the last 130000 

years. We hypothesized that ENSO, through effects on local weather conditions, has influenced frequency and 

extent of fires within Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). Using data from 1948 to 1999, we found that the 

La Ninã phase of ENSO was associated with decreased dryseason rainfall, lowered surface water levels, 

increased lightning strikes, more fires, and larger areas burned. In contrast, the El Ninõ phase was associated 

with increased dry-season rainfall, raised surface water levels, decreased lightning strikes, fewer fires, and 

smaller areas burned. Shifts between ENSO phases every few years have likely influenced vegetation through 

periodic large-scale fires, resulting in a prevalence of fire-influenced communities in the Everglades landscape. 


Volume 84 

Issue 12 

Pages 3124-3130 



DOI 10.1890/02-0183 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: area burned; El Ninõ; ENSO; Everglades; fire; Florida; global warming; La Ninã; lightning; 

savannas; SOI; wet/dry season. 



Influences of fire history and topography on the pattern of a severe wind blowdown in a Colorado 

subalpine forest 


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Author Dominik Kulakowski 


Abstract Summary 1. In 1997, a major windstorm blew down over 10 000 hectares of subalpine forest in Routt National 

Forest in north-western Colorado. We tested whether fire history and topographic variation, across the 

landscape, determined subsequent susceptibility to damage from this windstorm. 2. We combined 

dendrochronological techniques with a geographical information system (GIS) to examine the relationship 

between the effects of the blowdown and the spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation. We reconstructed the 

spatial fire history in a c. 4400 ha area by first identifying distinct patches in the landscape on aerial 

photographs, and then in the field by determining the disturbance history of each patch by dating fire scars, ages 

of post-fire cohorts and releases of remnant trees. 3. Both topographic position and fire history contribute to 

susceptibility to wind damage. Stands at higher elevations, on easterly slopes and closer to ridges were most 

affected. Younger stands (i.e. more recently affected by stand-initiating fires) were less affected particularly in 

areas affected by low–moderate severity blowdown (< 80% damage). The ecological effects of the very severe 

1997 windstorm were mediated by the legacies of fires which occurred several centuries ago. Interactions 

between natural disturbances, such as fire and blowdown, lead to synergistic effects on forest dynamics, even 

when disturbance is infrequent. 


Volume 90 

Issue 5 

Pages 806–819 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2745.2002.00722.x 

ISSN 1365-2745 


Extra Keywords: dendrochronology; disturbance; interactions; legacies; Rocky Mountain forests. 



Integrating climatic and fuels information into national fire risk decision support tools 


Author William Cooke 

Author Valentine Anantharaj 

Author Charles Wax 

Author Jinmu Choi 

Author Katarzyna Grala 

Author Matthew Jolly 

Author Grady P. Dixon 

Author Jamie Dyer 

Author David L. Evans 

Author Gregory B. Goodrich 

Abstract The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for 

Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space 

Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility of NASA assets in fire potential decision support 

systems. Climate, fuels, topography and ignition are recognized as important components for modeling fire 

potential in Eastern forests and grasslands. We produced temporal and spatial water budget estimates using daily 

assessments of precipitation and evaporation (P-E) in a Geographic Information System. Precipitation values 

are derived from Doppler radar-based estimates of hourly rainfall accumulation, published on the Hydrologic 

Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) grid. Precipitation data are routinely available, but evaporation data are not. 

Regional estimates of evaporation have been produced to fill this void. Regression models that estimate daily 

evaporation in the Southern region of the United States were developed from readily available weather station 

observations. Evaporation estimates were combined with precipitation to compute the cumulative water budget. 

Improvement of these estimates when compared to Keetch-Byrum Drought Index (KBDI) was demonstrated 

using fire location data in Mississippi. Evapotranspiration (ET) from the NASA Land Information System (LIS), 

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is currently being evaluated as a landscape moisture variable. We have implemented a hierarchical modeling 

methodology that combines information derived from ICESat (GLAS) data and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation 

Indices (EVI) to describe fuels structure. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed using Visual 

Basic (VB) that accesses an ESRI geospatial database that integrates water budget and fuels. The ignition 

component is derived from gravity models that assess the interaction of population density and forest areal size. 

Date 2007 

Proceedings Title The Fire Environment--Innovations, Management, and Policy: Conference Proceedings 

Conference Name The Fire Environment--Innovations, Management, and Policy; Conference Proceedings, Destin, FL. 26-30 

March 2007 



Pages 555-569 

Series USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD 


Archive http://www.gri.msstate.edu/publications/docs/2007/03/6207Cooke_et_al_FireRisk_DSS.pdf 

Extra Keywords: wildland fire management; Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS); Decision Support Systems 

(DSS); models; dlimate; fuels; topography; ignition. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Cooke, W.; Anantharaj, V.; Wax, C.; Choi, J.; Grala, K.; Jolly, M.; Dixon, G.P.; Dyer, J.; Evans, D.L.; Goodrich, G.B. 2007. 

Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools. In: Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, comps. 

The fire environment--innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March 2007; Destin, FL. Proceedings 

RMRS-P-46CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. CD-ROM. p. 

555-569. 

Source: 

Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, comps. 2007. The fire environment—innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 

26-30 March 2007; Destin, FL. Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky 

Mountain Research Station. 662 p. CD-ROM. 

Intensification of hot extremes in the United States 


Author Noah S. Diffenbaugh 

Author Moetasim Ashfaq 

Abstract Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including 

negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Existing mitigation targets have 

arisen primarily from political negotiations, and the ability of such policies to avoid dangerous impacts is still 

uncertain. Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we find that substantial intensification of hot 

extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 °C global warming target currently being 

considered by policy makers. We also find that the intensification of hot extremes is associated with a shift 

towards more anticyclonic atmospheric circulation during the warm season, along with warmseason drying over 

much of the U.S. The possibility that intensification of hot extremes could result from relatively small increases 

in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that constraining global warming to 2 °C may not be sufficient to 

avoid dangerous climate change. 


Volume 37 

Issue 15 

Pages L15701 (5 p.) 

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DOI 10.1029/2010GL043888 

ISSN 0094–8276 


Extra Keywords: climate change; CMIP3; RegCM3; extremes; regional climate model. 



Interaction of fire, climate and vegetation change at a large landscape scale in the Big Woods of 

Minnesota, USA 



Abstract The Big Woods region of Minnesota is on the prairie-forest border and is a much studied model for the 

interaction of climate, fire and vegetation. The purpose of this study was (a) to document the extent and timing 

of changes in vegetation and fire over the past 2000 years and (b) to examine the link between charcoal influx 

and vegetation during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. To reconstruct changes in vegetation, fire 

and climate, sieve charcoal (120 gm), pollen, environmental magnetism and loss-on-ignition were used. 

Charcoal deposition at prairie lakes was 3-4 times greater than for woodland or forest lakes, consistent with 

current understanding of the fire dependence of prairies, but charcoal influxes to forests were considerably 

higher than reported elsewhere, suggesting that ground fires were more common than assumed. Regionally, 

charcoal deposition at a subset of 17 lakes began to change at cal. AD 1100, dating to the period of the 

‘Mediaeval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA; cal. AD 900-1250) but preceding the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; cal. AD 

1250). For seven of 14 lakes the MCA was characterized by a significant increase in charcoal deposition. This 

was followed by a decrease with the onset of the LIA, which for most sites continued into the nineteenth 

century. Relative timing of changes in charcoal and pollen and the other proxies differed from site to site, 

suggesting no one single response to climatic change. This variation most likely derives from local differences in 

fuels and topography, as compounded by strong positive feedbacks between fuels and fire. 


Volume 14 

Issue 5 

Pages 661-676 



DOI 10.1191/0959683604hl745rp 

ISSN 0959-6836 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1191/0959683604hl745rp 

Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; fire; climate; vegetation; Little Ice Age; Mediaeval Climate Anomaly; pollen 

record; prairie-forest border; Big Woods; Minnesota. 



Interactions between antecedent climate and wildfire variability across south-eastern Arizona 


Author Michael A. Crimmins 

Author Andrew C. Comrie 

Abstract Long-term antecedent climate conditions are often overlooked as important drivers of wildfire variability. Fuel 

moisture levels and fine-fuel productivity are controlled by variability in precipitation and temperature at long 

timescales (months to years) before wildfire events. This study examines relationships between wildfire statistics 

(total area burned and total number of fires) aggregated for south-eastern Arizona and antecedent climate 

conditions relative to 29 fire seasons (April–May–June) between 1973 and 2001. High and low elevation fires 

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were examined separately to determine the influence of climate variability on dominant fuel types (low 

elevation grasslands with fine fuels v. high elevation forests with heavy fuels). Positive correlations between 

lagged precipitation and total area burned highlight the importance of climate in regulating fine fuel production 

for both high and low elevation fires. Surprisingly, no significant negative correlations between precipitation and 

seasonal wildfire statistics were found at any seasonal lag. Drought conditions were not associated with higher 

area burned or a greater number of fires. Larger low elevation fires were actually associated with wet 

antecedent conditions until just before the fire season. Larger high elevation fires were associated with wet 

conditions during seasons up to 3 years before the fire season. 


Volume 13 

Issue 4 

Pages 455–466 



DOI 10.1071/WF03064 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF03064 



Interactions of large-scale disturbances: Prior fire regimes and hurricane mortality of savanna pines 



Author Brian Beckage 

Author Robert F. Doren 

Author Harold H. Slater 

Abstract Differences in initial large-scale disturbances might change effects of subsequent large-scale disturbances. We 

explored possible effects of prior fire regimes on subsequent hurricane-related mortality of south Florida slash 

pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) in remnant Everglades pine savannas that were unburned, burned during the wet 

(lightning fire) season, or burned during the dry (anthropogenic fire) season in the decade before Hurricane 

Andrew (1992). We measured direct mortality during Andrew (snapped trees) and extended mortality over the 

subsequent 24–30 mo (mainly insect attacks on damaged trees). We used Bayesian model averaging to obtain 

probabilities of different models of survival based on fire regime and site characteristics (remnant area, distance 

to the Atlantic Ocean, depth to water table in the dry season, sustained wind speeds, tree sizes). Most likely 

models for direct and extended mortality included large negative effects of tree size and dry-season fire regime, 

and positive effects of stand area (direct mortality) and wet-season fire regime (extended mortality). Depth to 

water table and distance to the ocean had less certain effects. Our results, not predicted from fires or hurricanes 

alone, suggest that anthropogenic changes to dry-season fires strongly influence the effects of subsequent 

hurricanes on the mortality of pines in subtropical savannas. 


Volume 83 

Issue 6 

Pages 1566–1572 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1566:IOLSDP]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 

Short Title Interactions of large-scale disturbances 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890 

/0012-9658%282002%29083%5B1566%3AIOLSDP%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: direct and extended mortality; dry-season fires; fire regimes; hurricanes; multiple disturbances; pine 

savannas; Pinus elliottii var. densa; south Florida slash pine; wet-season fires. 


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Interactive effects of fire and microhabitat on plants of Florida scrub 


Author Eric S Menges 

Author Christine V Hawkes 

Abstract Fire, microhabitat, and their interactions affect Florida scrub ecosystems and their plant species. Concepts of 

vegetation change in the Florida upland landscape have followed successional theory, with recent models 

emphasizing the resilience of Florida scrub to fire and the interactive effects of the vegetation and fire regime. 

We extend these models by incorporating greater complexity in vegetation types and emphasizing that 

departures from modal fire frequencies may alter vegetation. In particular, fire exclusion leads to structural and 

compositional changes that, in turn, alter vegetation changes following the reintroduction of fire. Individual 

species responses to fire can be categorized by the demographic mechanisms of the response (e.g., resprouting, 

clonal growth, seedling recruitment) and by typical patterns of abundance during fire-free intervals. Various 

types of scrub differ in these lifehistory traits. For example, xeric rosemary scrub supports more herbs, more 

endemics, more specialized species, and more seeders increasing in abundance between fires as compared to 

less xeric scrubby flatwoods. Several of these species are demonstrated specialists for gaps, which are more 

abundant and persistent in rosemary scrub than in scrubby flatwoods. In scrubby flatwoods, patterns of species 

abundance are explainable by time since fire and the presence of gaps, and sprouters are more successful than 

seeders between fires. In rosemary scrub, where gaps remain long after fire, species abundance patterns reflect 

only gap abundance, and seeders are especially successful between fires. Because fires create or enlarge gaps 

that are then closed between fires (especially in less xeric habitats), gap specialists may be sensitive to both fire 

and microhabitat. Alteration of the modal fire regime is hypothesized to affect the proportion of sprouters and 

seeders, microsite diversity, and the long-term local persistence of species with different specializations for 

postfire response and between-fire competitive abilities. Metapopulation dynamics in a landscape patterned by 

edaphic gradients, a patchy and variable disturbance regime, and small-scale gap dynamics produce varied 

spatial and temporal patterns in species’ abundances. 


Volume 8 

Issue 4 

Pages 935–946 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1998)008[0935:IEOFAM]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire and microhabitat effects on plants; fire frequency; Florida (USA) scrub ecosystems; 

gap dynamics; landscape; microhabitat importance; microsite diversity; rosemary scrub; sand pine scrub; 

scrubby flatwoods; succession, theory and model. 



Interactive effects of fire, bison (Bison bison) grazing and plant community composition in tallgrass 

prairie 


Author Mary Ann Vinton 

Author David C. Hartnett 

Author Elmer J. Finck 

Author John M. Briggs 

Abstract Fire and native large herbivore grazing were two important influences on the structure and function of North 

American grasslands. In 1988 and 1989 the influence of fire regime on grazing patterns of North American 

bison (Bison bison) was studied on the Konza Prairie in northeastern Kansas. Bison grazing was spatially and 

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temporally nonrandom and was influenced by fire regime and local plant community composition. During the 

growing season, bison were observed up to 3 x more frequently than expected on watersheds burned in the 

spring. Summer grazing was concentrated in large watershed areas (79-119 ha) dominated by warm-season, 

perennial, C₄ grasses. During the autumn and winter, bison grazed both burned and unburned watersheds more 

uniformly but grazed most intensively in areas with large stands of cool-season, C₃ grasses. On a smaller spatial 

scale (5-10 m²), bison selected patches during the growing season with low forb cover dominated by the 

perennial C₄ grass, Andropogon gerardii. Grazed patches were larger on frequently burned than on infrequently 

burned watersheds. The importance of fire history in determining patterns of bison grazing over the landscape 

indicates that interactions between bison grazing and fire regime may be important to the composition and 

spatial heterogeneity of tallgrass prairie vegetation. 


Volume 129 

Issue 1 

Pages 10-18 



DOI 10.2307/2426430 

ISSN 0003-0031 




Interagency Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) guidebook. Version 3.0 

Type Document 

Author Stephen W. Barrett 

Author Doug Havlina 

Author Jeffrey L. Jones 


Author Christine K. Frame 

Author Dale Hamilton 

Author Kathy Schon 

Author Thomas E. Demeo 

Author Lee C. Hutter 


Abstract An understanding of fire regimes, ecological departure from historical reference conditions, and landscape 

pattern is an important part of modern land management. Federal initiatives such as the 2001 National Fire Plan 

continue to emphasize the restoration of fire-adapted ecosystems and maintenance of land health. Developed in 

2003, the Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) assessment system has provided a vital connection between 

managers’ understanding of fire regimes, ecological departure, and efforts to maintain sustainable landscapes 

(USDA, USDI 10-Year Comprehensive Strategy and Implementation Plans 2001-2002). The FRCC Standard 

Landscape assessment system provides tools for fire regime and vegetation assessment at the both the landscape 

and stand scales. These methods can be used to describe general fire regime and vegetation traits for the 

historical (reference condition) versus current periods to produce departure estimates. (In this document, the 

terms “historical,” “reference,” and “natural” all refer to native ecosystems as they existed prior to 

EuroAmerican settlement.) Fire Regime Condition Class is defined as follows: FRCC 1 represents ecosystems 

with low (66 percent) departure from reference conditions. The Interagency 

Fire Regime Condition Class Guidebook applies – at a finer scale and with minor refinements – the original 

FRCC concepts and definitions published in Hardy and others (2001), Hann and Bunnell (2001), and Schmidt 

and others (2002). FRCC assessment methods were developed and implemented by an interagency working 

group partnered with The Nature Conservancy, with oversight of the FRCC program provided by the National 

Interagency Fuels Management Committee. In addition, the FRCC methods, software, website, and associated 

publications have been developed in parallel with the national LANDFIRE vegetation, wildland fuel, and fire 

regime mapping project. The FRCC Guidebook includes two procedures for determining FRCC: the FRCC 

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Standard Landscape Worksheet Method and the FRCC Standard Landscape Mapping Method. These methods 

allow the user to quantify FRCC from the landscape to stand scales. Importantly, the stand-scale outputs can 

help users satisfy treatment reporting requirements, such as those contained in the National Fire Plan Operations 

and Reporting System (NFPORS). The FRCC Guidebook provides step-by-step instructions for conducting 

assessments with the non-spatial FRCC Standard Landscape Worksheet Method (see Chapter 3). In addition, 

Chapter 4 provides an overview of two custom software tools. First, the FRCC Software Application (FRCCSA) 

provides a convenient way to quickly calculate and graph FRCC outcomes via the Standard Landscape 

Worksheet Method. Second, the FRCC Mapping Tool (FRCCMT) is GIS software that uses the Standard 

Landscape Mapping Method to generate spatial assessments of FRCC. Regarding user support, www.frcc.gov 

provides biophysical settings models, data entry forms, downloadable software, training opportunities, a 

helpdesk contact, and other FRCC-related resources (details provided below). 

Publisher USDA Forest Service, US Department of the Interior, and The Nature Conservancy 


Short Title Interagency FRCC Guidebook 

URL http://www.fire.org/niftt/released/FRCC_Guidebook_2010_final.pdf 

Loc. in Archive Fire and Research Management Exchange System (FRAMES) 

Extra Keywords: FRCC (Fire Regime Condition Class); landscape assessment; NIFTT (National Interagency Fuels 

Technology Team). 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Barrett, S.; Havlina, D.; Jones, J.; Hann, W.; Frame, C.; Hamilton, D.; Schon, K.; Demeo, T.; Hutter, L.; and Menakis, J. 2010. 

Interagency Fire Regime Condition Class Guidebook. Version 3.0 [Homepage of the Interagency Fire Regime Condition Class 

website, USDA Forest Service, US Department of the Interior, and The Nature Conservancy]. [Online], Available: www.frcc.gov. 

Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980 



Author Timothy P. Whorf 

Author Martin Wahlen 

Author Johannes van der Plicht 

Abstract OBSERVATIONS of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and at the South Pole over the 

past four decades show an approximate proportionality between the rising atmospheric concentrations and 

industrial CO₂ emissions. This proportionality, which is most apparent during the first 20 years of the records, 

was disturbed in the 1980s by a disproportionately high rate of rise of atmospheric CO₂, followed after 1988 by 

a pronounced slowing down of the growth rate. To probe the causes of these changes, we examine here the 

changes expected from the variations in the rates of industrial CO₂ emissions over this time, and also from 

influences of climate such as El Niño events. We use the¹³C/¹²C ratio of atmospheric CO₂ to distinguish the 

effects of interannual variations in biospheric and oceanic sources and sinks of carbon. We propose that the 

recent disproportionate rise and fall in CO₂ growth rate were caused mainly by interannual variations in global 

air temperature (which altered both the terrestrial biospheric and the oceanic carbon sinks), and possibly also by 

precipitation. We suggest that the anomalous climate-induced rise in CO₂ was partially masked by a slowing 

down in the growth rate of fossil-fuel combustion, and that the latter then exaggerated the subsequent climateinduced 

fall. 


Volume 375 

Issue 6533 

Pages 666–670 



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DOI 10.1038/375666a0 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v375/n6533/abs/375666a0.html 



Interannual variability in primary production in tallgrass prairie: Climate, soil moisture, topographic 

position, and fire as determinants of aboveground biomass 


Author John M. Briggs 


Abstract From 1975 to 1993, aboveground net primary production (NPP) at the Konza Prairie Research Natural Area in 

NE Kansas varied from 179 g/m2 to 756 g/m2. Across a variety of sites, NPP was significantly related to 

precipitation (r² = 0.37), but much variability was unexplained. Thus, we evaluated the relationship between 

NPP with meteorological variables and soil moisture measurements in tallgrass prairie sites that varied in fire 

frequency and topographic position. Annually burned lowland sites had significantly higher NPP than either 

annually burned upland or unburned sites. NPP in burned sites was more strongly related to meteorological 

variables and soil moisture when compared to unburned sites. The lack of significant correlation between soil 

moisture with NPP on unburned sites suggests that factors other than water availability limit production in these 

sites. When NPP data were analyzed separately by life forms, interannual variability in forb NPP was not 

correlated with any meteorological variables, but was negatively correlated with grass NPP (r = -0.49). The 

inability of a single factor, such as precipitation to explain a large portion of the interannual variability in NPP is 

consistent with the concept that patterns of NPP in tallgrass prairie are a product of spatial and temporal 

variability in light, water, and nutrients, driven by a combination of topography, fire history, and climate. 


Volume 82 

Issue 8 

Pages 1024-1030 



DOI 10.2307/2446232 

ISSN 0002-9122 

Short Title Interannual Variability in Primary Production in Tallgrass Prairie 




Interannual variability of global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004 





Author G. James Collatz 

Author Prasad S. Kasibhatla 

Author Avelino F. Arellano Jr. 

Abstract Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is 

known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to 

global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data 

and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001–2004 was derived using newly available active 

fire and 500 m burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2005). 

ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our 

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analysis we estimated fuel loads, including peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the 

balance between net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and biomass burning, using time 

varying inputs of precipitation (PPT), temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed 

photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR). For the 1997–2004 period, we found that on average 

approximately 58 Pg C year⁻¹ was fixed by plants, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the 

atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year⁻¹ was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of 

losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions 

were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including 

deforestation fires in the tropics), whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to 

different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with 

a range of more than 1 Pg C year⁻¹, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year⁻¹) and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg 

C year⁻¹). 

Publication Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 

Volume 6 

Issue 11 

Pages 3423-3441 


Journal Abbr Atmos. Chem. Phys. 

DOI 10.5194/acp-6-3423-2006 

ISSN 1680-7375 

URL http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/3423/2006/acp-6-3423-2006.html 



Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern 

California and Oregon 




Author Andrew M. Carleton 


Abstract The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry 

summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) 

on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based 

fire records. We investigated how interannual variability in two fire weather indices, the Haines index (HI) and 

the Energy Release Component (ERC), in the Mediterranean region of southern Oregon and northern California 

is related to atmospheric circulation and fire extent. Years with high and low fire weather index values 

corresponded to years with a high and low annual area burned, respectively. HI combines atmospheric moisture 

with atmospheric instability and variation in HI was more strongly associated with interannual variation in 

wildfire extent than ERC, which is based on moisture alone. The association between fire extent and HI was 

also higher for fires in southern Oregon than in northern California. In terms of synoptic-scale circulation 

patterns, years of high fire risk (i.e., increased potential for erratic fire behavior, represented by HI and ERC) 

were associated with positive winter PNA and PDO conditions, characterized by enhanced regional 

mid-tropospheric ridging and low atmospheric moisture. The time lag we found between fire risk potential and 

prior winter circulation patterns could contribute to the development of long-lead fire-climate forecasting. 

Publication Theoretical and Applied Climatology 

Volume 95 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 349–360 


Journal Abbr Theor. Appl. Climatol. 

DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0012-x 

ISSN 0177-798X 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/041j873107u87064/ 

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Extra Keywords: fire climate; PDO; PNA; ENSO; Haines Index; energy release component. 



Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium 


Author Jinbao Li 

Author Shang-Ping Xie 


Author Gang Huang 

Author Rosanne D'Arrigo 

Author Fei Liu 

Author Jian Ma 

Author Xiao-Tong Zheng 

Abstract The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on Earth, 

alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) conditions in the tropical Pacific at 

intervals of 2–8 years. The amplitude of ENSO variability affects the occurrence and predictability of climate 

extremes around the world, but our ability to detect and predict changes in ENSO amplitude is limited by the 

fact that the instrumental record is too short to characterize its natural variability. Here we use the North 

American Drought Atlas—a database of drought reconstructions based on tree-ring records—to produce a 

continuous, annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past 1,100 years. Our record is in broad 

agreement with independent, ENSO-sensitive proxy records in the Pacific and surrounding regions. Together, 

these records indicate that ENSO amplitude exhibits a quasi-regular cycle of 50–90 years that is closely coupled 

to the tropical Pacific mean state. Anomalously warm conditions in the eastern Pacific are associated with 

enhanced ENSO variability, consistent with model simulations. The quasi-periodic ENSO amplitude modulation 

reported here offers a key observational constraint for improving models and their prediction of ENSO 

behaviour linked to global warming. 

Publication Nature Climate Change 

Volume 1 

Issue 2 

Pages 114-118 

Date May 2011 

Journal Abbr Nature Climate Change 

DOI 10.1038/nclimate1086 

ISSN 1758-678X 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1086 



Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation 





Abstract Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using 

both documentary records (1914–87 and 1938–96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past 

several centuries. The two regions share similar fire–climate relationships and similar relationships of climatic 

anomalies to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Niño events coincide with aboveaverage 

cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. 

Conversely, La Niña events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern 

oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread 

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fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching 

from El Niño to La Niña conditions. El Niño conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when 

desiccated by La Niña conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire 

occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence 

in both regions from c. 1780–1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The 

interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a 

response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO–fire relationships of the south-western USA and 

northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in 

addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability 

need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes. 


Volume 10 

Issue 3 

Pages 315–326 

Date May 2001 


DOI 10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.00234.x 

ISSN 1466-8238 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.00234.x/full 

Extra Keywords: climate-induced disturbance; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire synchrony; Northern Patagonia; 

south-western United States; tree-ring reconstructions. 



International classification of ecological communities: Terrestrial vegetation of the United States 

Type Book 

Author Dennis H. Grossman 

Author Don Faber-Langendoen 

Author Alan S. Weakley 

Author Mark Anderson 

Author Patrick Bourgeron 

Author Ralph Crawford 

Author Kathleen Goodin 

Author Sally Landaal 

Author Kenneth Metzler 

Author Karen Patterson 

Author Milo Pyne 

Author Marion Reid 

Author Lesley Sneddon 


Volume 1 


Place Arlington, Virginia 

Publisher The Nature Conservancy 

Date 1998 

# of Pages 126 p. (Vol. I) 

ISBN 0-9624590-1-1 

Short Title International classification of ecological communities 

URL http://www.natureserve.org/explorer/classeco.htm 



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Notes: 

Citation: 

Grossman, D. H., D. Faber-Langendoen, A. S. Weakley, M. Anderson, P. Bourgeron, R. Crawford, K. Goodin, S. Landaal, K. Metzler, 

K. D. Patterson, M. Pyne, M. Reid, and L. Sneddon. 1998. International classification of ecological communities: terrestrial vegetation 

of the United States. Volume I. The National Vegetation Classification System: development, status, and applications. The Nature 

Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia, USA. 

Intervals between prescribed fires in Australia: what intrinsic variation should apply? 



Author Michael A. McCarthy 

Abstract Because of increasing concern over the constancy of intervals between prescribed fires within a vegetation 

type, we examine various sources of evidence that can be used to determine variation appropriate to the 

conservation of biodiversity while minimizing the chances of economically destructive fires. Primary juvenile 

periods of plants (especially of'serotinous seeders') and non-breeding periods of birds (especially poorly 

dispersed species) suggest extreme lower limits for fire intervals whereas longevity of plant species which 

usually only reproduce after fire, set the extreme upper limits. Modelling of the behaviour of selected plant and 

animal species may be used to set 'optimal' mean intervals. Historical fire-interval data might seem a useful way 

to determine the variation about the mean fire-interval but data are scarce and interpretations are controversial. 

The Weibull distribution and its special case, the negative exponential distribution, have been the most 

supported in North American studies of unplanned fires. It has been argued that fire-interval distributions, 

before European settlement at least, were largely the result of large fires during, or following, extreme weather 

events (dry in forests, wet in the arid zone). Long weather records are most beneficial when they can be related 

to the areas burned each year. Practical solutions to the question 'what range of fire intervals should be used at 

any one site' may be achieved using highly simplified skewed distributions, constructed on the basis of 

land-management objectives 

Publication Biological Conservation 

Volume 85 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 161-169 


Journal Abbr Biol. Conserv. 

DOI 10.1016/S0006-3207(97)00121-3 

ISSN 0006-3207 

Short Title Intervals between prescribed fires in Australia 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V5X-3TP5RMP-1D/2/cc6190996420d83b4ac29dfc5d4eee1d 

Extra Keywords: prescribed fire; fire intervals; fire frequency; conservation; biodiversity; fire suppression. 



Introduction to fire and the palaeoenvironment 


Author A. C Scott 

Author J. Moore 

Author B. Brayshay 


Volume 164 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 7–11 

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Date 2000 





Introduction to fire and the palaeoenvironment 



Author Jenny Moore 

Author Barbara Brayshay 



Volume 164 

Issue 1-4 

Pages vii-xi 



DOI 10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00165-6 

ISSN 0031-0182 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science? 

_ob=ArticleURL&… 



Introduction to wildland fire 

Type Book 


Author Patricia L. Andrews 

Author Richard D. Laven 

Abstract Introduction to Wildland Fire, Second Edition provides a comprehensive resource for studying the fundamentals 

of fire behavior, its ecological effects, and its cultural and institutional framework. This new Second Edition 

expands and updates the coverage of the field and explores the subject of wildfire management in a broad 

scientific, technical, and social context. Written by recognized authorities on fire management, it presents the 

fundamental physics and chemistry of fire, fire behavior, wildland fuels, the interaction of fires and weather, the 

ecological effects of fires, the structure of fire management programs, planning efforts, suppression strategies, 

prescribed fires, and global fire management. The new edition also includes such current problems as the 

burning of the Amazon rain forest and the implications of the recent drought-related fires that have plagued 

urban areas bordering on wilderness land. Throughout the book the authors keep the subject of fire itself central. 

They begin by identifying, clarifying, and consolidating the basic concepts and literature of fire as a natural 

occurrence in the environment. General principles are illustrated with reference to specific events, and the 

natural incidence of fire is related to its cultural causes and effects. Introduction to Wildland Fire, Second 

Edition provides foresters, range scientists, environmentalists, ecologists, and administrators of federal and state 

agencies with an authoritative and comprehensive resource. 






ISBN 0471549134, 9780471549130 

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Notes: 


id=yT6bzpUyFIwC&… 

Extra Wiley Books: http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471549134.html 




Conversion Factors 

Abbreviations Used in Text 

Preface 

1 Wildland Fire Fundamentals 3 

2 Fire Behavior 46 

3 Wildland Fuels 90 

4 Fire Weather 128 

5 Fire Ecology 171 

6 Fire and Culture 213 

7 Administration of Fire Regimes 309 

8 Programs for Fire Management 385 

9 Fire Suppression 456 

10 Prescribed Fire 538 

11 Global Fire 601 

Bibliography 725 

Credits 750 

Index 753 

Topics: 

Written by recognized authorities on fire management, Introduction to Wildland Fire, Second Edition offers thorough coverage of the 

complex subject of wildland fire and its management in a broad scientific, technical, and social context. Topics include: 

The chemistry and physics of fire 

Fire behavior, including the influences of fuel and weather 

The ecological effects of fire 

The cultural and institutional framework of fire management 

Fire management and suppression 

Prescribed fire 

Global fire 

Investing in the future: Ecological restoration and the USDA Forest Service 


Author Dale Bosworth 

Author Hutch Brown 



Volume 105 

Issue 4 

Pages 208-212 



ISSN 0022-1201 

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Short Title Investing in the Future 

URL http://ddr.nal.usda.gov/handle/10113/3146 



IPCC Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) 

Type Book 

Editor Nebojsa Nakićenović 

Editor Rob Swart 

Abstract Preface: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established jointly by the World 

Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess 

periodically the science, impacts, and socio-economics of climate change and of adaptation and mitigation 

options. The IPCC provides, on request, scientific and technical advice to the Conference of the Parties to the 

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its bodies. In response to a 1994 

evaluation of the earlier IPCC IS92 emissions scenarios, the 1996 Plenary of the IPCC requested this Special 

Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (see Appendix I for the Terms of Reference). This report was accepted 

by the Working Group III (WGIII) plenary session in March 2000. The long-term nature and uncertainty of 

climate change and its driving forces require scenarios that extend to the end of the 21st century. This report 

describes the new scenarios and how they were developed. The SRES scenarios cover a wide range of the main 

driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. As required 

by the Terms of Reference, none of the scenarios in the set includes any future policies that explicitly address 

climate change, although all scenarios necessarily encompass various policies of other types. The set of SRES 

emissions scenarios is based on an extensive assessment of the literature, six alternative modelling approaches, 

and an "open process" that solicited wide participation and feedback from many groups and individuals. The 

SRES scenarios include the range of emissions of all relevant species of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfur 

and their driving forces. The SRES writing team included more than 50 members from 18 countries who 

represent a broad range of scientific disciplines, regional backgrounds, and non-governmental organizations (see 

Appendix II). The team, led by Nebojsa Nakicenovic of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 

(IIASA) in Austria, included representatives of six scenario modeling groups and lead authors from all three 

earlier IPCC scenario activities - the 1990 and 1992 scenarios and the 1994 scenario evaluation. The SRES 

preparation included six major steps: • analysis of existing scenarios in the literature; • analysis of major scenario 

characteristics, driving forces, and their relationships; • formulation of four narrative scenario "storylines" to 

describe alternative futures; • quantification of each storyline using a variety of modelling approaches; • an 

"open" review process of the resultant emission scenarios and their assumptions; and • three revisions of the 

scenarios and the report subsequent to the open review process, i.e., the formal IPCC Expert Review and the 

final combined IPCC Expert and Government Review. As required by the Terms of Reference, the SRES 

preparation process was open with no single "official" model and no exclusive "expert teams." To this end, in 

1997 the IPCC advertised in relevant scientific journals and other publications to solicit wide participation in the 

process. A web site documenting the SRES process and intermediate results was created to facilitate outside 

input. Members of the writing team also published much of their background research in the peer-reviewed 

literature and on web sites. In June 1998, the IPCC Bureau agreed to make the unapproved, preliminary 

scenarios available to climate modelers, who could use the scenarios as a basis for the assessment of climatic 

changes in time for consideration in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. We recommend that the new 

scenarios be used not only in the IPCC's future assessments of climate change, its impacts, and adaptation and 

mitigation options, but also as the basis for analyses by the wider research and policy community of climate 

change and other environmental problems. 



Date 2000 


ISBN 92-9169-113-5 

URL http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/? 

src=/climate/ipcc/emission/ 


Extra http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0 



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Notes: 

Authors: 

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Joseph Alcamo, Gerald Davis, Bert de Vries, Joergen Fenhann, Stuart Gaffin, Kenneth Gregory, Arnulf Grübler, 

Tae Yong Jung, Tom Kram, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Laurie Michaelis, Shunsuke Mori, Tsuneyuki Morita, William Pepper, Hugh 

Pitcher, Lynn Price, Keywan Riahi, Alexander Roehrl, Hans-Holger Rogner, Alexei Sankovski, Michael Schlesinger, Priyadarshi 

Shukla, Steven Smith, Robert Swart, Sascha van Rooijen, Nadejda Victor, Zhou Dadi 

IPCC: Cherish it, tweak it or scrap it? 


Author Mike Hulme 

Author Eduardo Zorita 


Author Jeff Price 

Author John R. Christy 

Abstract As calls for reform intensify following recent furores about e-mails, conflicts of interest, glaciers and extreme 

weather, five climatologists propose ways forward for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Their 

suggestions range from reaffirming the panel’s governing principles to increasing the number and speed of its 

publications to replacing the volunteer organization with a permanently staffed structure. 


Volume 463 

Issue 7282 

Pages 730-732 



DOI 10.1038/463730a 

ISSN 0028-0836 

Short Title IPCC 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7282/full/463730a.html 



Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions 


Author Susan Solomon 




Abstract The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but 

also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to 

increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following 

cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely 

compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for 

at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon 

dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 

450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions 

comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming 

ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 

21st century CO₂ concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO₂ concentrations exceeding 

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≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are 

uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. 


Volume 106 

Issue 6 

Pages 1704-1709 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0812721106 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: dangerous interference; precipitation; sea level rise; warming. 



Is the climate warming or cooling? 


Author David R. Easterling 

Author Michael F. Wehner 

Abstract Numerous websites, blogs and articles in the media have claimed that the climate is no longer warming, and is 

now cooling. Here we show that periods of no trend or even cooling of the globally averaged surface air 

temperature are found in the last 34 years of the observed record, and in climate model simulations of the 20th 

and 21st century forced with increasing greenhouse gases. We show that the climate over the 21st century can 

and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows 

no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer-term warming. 


Volume 36 

Issue 8 

Pages L08706 (3 P.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009GL037810 

ISSN 0094-8276 


Extra Keywords: global warming; climate change. 



Is the longleaf type a climax? 


Author Herman H. Chapman 



Volume 13 

Issue 4 

Pages 328–334 



DOI 10.2307/1932309 

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ISSN 0012-9658 




Joseph Fourier, the ''greenhouse effect', and the quest for a universal theory of terrestrial temperatures 


Author James R. Fleming 

Abstract The central role that the theory of terrestrial temperatures played in Fourier’s mathematical physics has not 

received the attention it deserves from historians, although his cryptic allusions to the heating of a greenhouse, 

taken out of context, have been widely cited by subsequent authors. 

Publication Endeavour 

Volume 23 

Issue 2 

Pages 72–75 

Date 1999 

Journal Abbr Endeavour 

DOI 10.1016/S0160-9327(99)01210-7 

ISSN 0160-9327 




Land management: Forests, fires and climate 



Abstract A new analysis of the effect of climatic variation on forest fires goes back several thousand years. One 

take-home message is that a one-size-fits-all forest management strategy is, literally, short-sighted. 


Volume 432 

Issue 7013 

Pages 28-29 



DOI 10.1038/432028a 

ISSN 0028-0836 




LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment 


Author Matthew G. Rollins 

Abstract LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing 

vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United 

States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of 

the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency 

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and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and 

prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between 

agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and 

fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote 

sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. 

LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at 

www.landfire.gov, accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for 

prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the 

applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local 

users. 


Volume 18 

Issue 3 

Pages 235–249 

Date May 2009 


DOI 10.1071/WF08088 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title LANDFIRE 


paper=WF08088 



Landscape composition influences local pattern of fire size in the eastern Canadian boreal forest: Role 

of weather and landscape mosaic on fire size distribution in mixedwood boreal forest using the 

Prescribed Fire Analysis System 



Author C. Marie-Josée Fortin 

Author Kerry R. Anderson 


Abstract Wildfire simulations were carried out using the Prescribed Fire Analysis System (PFAS) to study the effect of 

landscape composition on fire sizes in eastern Canadian boreal forests. We used the Lake Duparquet forest as 

reference, plus 13 forest mosaic scenarios whose compositions reflected lengths of fire cycle. Three fire weather 

risks based on duff moisture were used. We performed 100 simulations per risk and mosaic, with topography 

and hydrology set constant for the reference. Results showed that both weather and landscape composition 

significantly influenced fire sizes. Weather related to fire propagation explained almost 79% of the variance, 

while landscape composition and weather conditions for ignition explained ~14 and 2% respectively. In terms of 

landscape, burned area increased with increasing presence of shade-tolerant species, which are related to long 

fire cycles. Comparisons among the distributions of cumulated area burned from scenarios plus those from the 

Société de Protection des Forêts contre le Feu database archives showed that PFAS simulated realistic fire sizes 

using the 80–100% class of probable fire extent. Future analyses would best be performed on a larger region as 

the limited size of the study area could not capture fires larger than 11 000 ha, which represent 3% of fires but 

65% of the total area burned at the provincial scale. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1099–1109 



DOI 10.1071/WF09112 

ISSN 1448-5516 

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Short Title Landscape composition influences local pattern of fire size in the eastern Canadian boreal forest 


paper=WF09112 

Extra Keywords: Canadian Duff Moisture Code; fire cycle; PFAS model; Quebec; scenarios. 



Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems 




Abstract Crown fires create broad-scale patterns in vegetation by producing a patch mosaic of stand age classes, but the 

spread and behavior of crown fires also may be constrained by spatial patterns in terrain and fuels across the 

landscape. In this review, we address the implications of landscape heterogeneity for crown fire behavior and 

the ecological effects of crown fires over large areas. We suggest that fine-scale mechanisms of fire spread can 

be extrapolated to make broad-scale predictions of landscape pattern by coupling the knowledge obtained from 

mechanistic and empirical fire behavior models with spatially-explicit probabilistic models of fire spread. 

Climatic conditions exert a dominant control over crown fire behavior and spread, but topographic and 

physiographic features in the landscape and the spatial arrangement and types of fuels have a strong influence 

on fire spread, especially when burning conditions (e.g., fuel moisture and wind) are not extreme. General 

trends in crown fire regimes and stand age class distributions can be observed across continental, latitudinal, and 

elevational gradients. Crown fires are more frequent in regions having more frequent and/or severe droughts, 

and younger stands tend to dominate these landscapes. Landscapes dominated by crown fires appear to be 

nonequilibrium systems. This nonequilibrium condition presents a significant challenge to land managers, 

particularly when the implications of potential changes in the global climate are considered. Potential changes in 

the global climate may alter not only the frequency of crown fires but also their severity. Crown fires rarely 

consume the entire forest, and the spatial heterogeneity of burn severity patterns creates a wide range of local 

effects and is likely to influence plant reestablishment as well as many other ecological processes. Increased 

knowledge of ecological processes at regional scales and the effects of landscape pattern on fire dynamics 

should provide insight into our understanding of the behavior and consequences of crown fires. 


Volume 9 

Issue 1 

Pages 59-77 



DOI 10.1007/BF00135079 



Extra Keywords: crown fire; patch mosaic; fire models; fire regimes. 



Landscape ecology 


Author Dean L. Urban 

Author Robert V. O'Neill 

Author Herman H. Shugart Jr 

Abstract Description: In this paper the authors outline an approach to landscape study that employs a hierarchical 

paradigm of pattern and behavior. Although emphasis is on forested landscapes, we can generalize a theory of 

landscape ecology. Attention is focused on the wide range of phenomena in a natural terrestrial landscape by 

considering the apparent complexity of landscape dynamics and illustrating how a hierarchical paradigm lends 

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itself to simplifying such complexity. This perspective also affords insights into the management of 

man-dominated landscapes. 


Volume 37 

Issue 2 

Pages 119–127 



DOI 10.2307/1310366 

ISSN 0006-3568 


Extra Landscape ecology: A hierarchical perspective can help scientists understand spatial patterns 



Landscape ecology: What is the state of the science? 



Abstract Landscape ecology focuses on the reciprocal interactions between spatial pattern and ecological processes, and 

it is well integrated with ecology. The field has grown rapidly over the past 15 years. The persistent influence of 

land-use history and natural disturbance on contemporary ecosystems has become apparent. Development of 

pattern metrics has largely stabilized, and they are widely used to relate landscape pattern to ecological 

responses. Analyses conducted at multiple scales have demonstrated the importance of landscape pattern for 

many taxa, and spatially mediated interspecific interactions are receiving increased attention. Disturbance 

remains prominent in landscape studies, and current research is addressing disturbance interactions. Integration 

of ecosystem and landscape ecology remains challenging but should enhance understanding of landscape 

function. Landscape ecology should continue to refine knowledge of when spatial heterogeneity is 

fundamentally important, rigorously test the generality of its concepts, and develop a more mechanistic 

understanding of the relationships between pattern and process. 

Publication Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 

Volume 36 

Issue 1 

Pages 319-344 


Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.36.102003.152614 

ISSN 1543-592X 

URL http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.36.102003.152614 

Extra Keywords: disturbance; fragmentation; spatial heterogeneity; spatial pattern; succession. 



Landscape history and changes in sandhill vegetation in north-central and south-central Florida 


Author Ronald L. Myers 

Author Deborah L. White 

Abstract "Southern ridge sandhill" vegetation is distinguished from its more northerly counterparts in Florida by 1) a 

predominance of south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) instead of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), 2) 

an abundance of scrub hickory (Carya floridana) and evergreen scrub oaks, and 3) stunted, gnarled turkey oaks 

(Quercus laevis). Vegetation changes were documented in sandhill vegetation in north-central Florida at Welaka 

using a permanent plot established in 1951 by Albert M. Laessle and in southern ridge sandhill at Archbold 

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Biological Station using records from the Station archives dating from 1929. At both sites the contiguous 

vegetation is xeric scrub. Although neither site has burned for 50-60 yr, the northern site has experienced little 

invasion by xeric hardwoods, yet they dominate the southern site. Climatic, edaphic, and biogeographic 

influences are addressed, and land use histories point to anthropogenic burning as a possible factor accounting 

for some of the structural and successional differences. The southern type may possess a community structure 

reflecting less human alteration of the natural fire regime. 


Volume 114 

Issue 1 

Pages 21-32 

Date January - March 1987 


DOI 10.2307/2996386 

ISSN 00409618 


Extra Keywords: sandhill vegetation; sand pine scrub; succession; Florida; fire history; land use. 



Landscape history and ecological change 




Publication Journal of Forest History 

Volume 33 

Issue 3 

Pages 116-125 


Journal Abbr Journal of Forest History 

DOI 10.2307/4005121 

ISSN 0094-5080 




Landscape management using historical fire regimes: Blue River, Oregon 


Author John H. Cissel 


Author Peter J. Weisberg 

Abstract Landscapes administered for timber production by the U.S. Forest Service in the Pacific Northwest in the 

1950s-1980s were managed with dispersed patch clearcutting, and then briefly in the late 1980s with aggregated 

patch clear-cutting. In the late 1990s, use of historical landscape patterns and disturbance regimes as a guide for 

landscape management has emerged as an alternative to the static reserves and standard matrix prescriptions in 

the Northwest Forest Plan. Use of historical information to guide management recognizes the dynamic and 

variable character of the landscape and may offer an improved ability to meet ecosystem management 

objectives. We describe a landscape management plan based in part on interpretations of historical disturbance 

regimes. The plan contains a reserve system and other landscape areas where three distinct types of timber 

harvest are prescribed. Timber harvest prescriptions approximate the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of 

past fires. Future harvest blocks are mapped and used to project forest patterns 200 yr forward and to map 

resulting landscape structure. This plan is compared with an alternative plan for the same area based on the 

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extensive reserves and prescriptions for matrix lands in the Northwest Forest Plan. The management approach 

based on historical patterns produced more late-successional habitat (71% vs. 59%), more overstory structure in 

young stands (overstory canopy cover of 15-50% vs. 15%), larger patches (mean patch size of 48 vs. 26 ha), 

and less edge between young and old forest (edge density of 19 vs. 37 m/ha). While landscape structures 

resulting from both plans are historically unprecedented, we feel that landscape management plans 

incorporating key aspects-of ecosystem history and variability may pose less risk to native species and 

ecological processes. 


Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 1217–1231 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1217:LMUHFR]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

Short Title Landscape management using historical fire regimes 


/1051-0761%281999%29009%5B1217%3ALMUHFR%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: adaptive management; disturbance ecology; historicalf ire regime; landscapea nalysis; landscape 

plan; landscape structure; late-successional habitat; Northwest Forest Plan. 



Landscape-scale controls over 20th century fire occurrence in two large Rocky Mountain (USA) 

wilderness areas 




Author Thomas Swetnam 

Abstract Topography, vegetation, and climate act together to determine the spatial patterns of fires at landscape scales. 

Knowledge of landscape-fire-climate relations at these broad scales (1,000s ha to 100,000s ha) is limited and is 

largely based on inferences and extrapolations from fire histories reconstructed from finer scales. In this study, 

we used long time series of fire perimeter data (fire atlases) and data for topography, vegetation, and climate to 

evaluate relationships between large 20th century fires and landscape characteristics in two contrasting areas: 

the 486,673-ha Gila/Aldo Leopold Wilderness Complex (GALWC) in New Mexico, USA, and the 785,090-ha 

Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Complex (SBWC) in Idaho and Montana, USA. There were important similarities 

and differences in gradients of topography, vegetation, and climate for areas with different fire frequencies, both 

within and between study areas.These unique and general relationships, when compared between study areas, 

highlight important characteristics of fire regimes in the Northern and Southern Rocky Mountains of the 

Western United States. Results suggest that amount and horizontal continuity of herbaceous fuels limit the 

frequency and spread of surface fires in the GALWC, while the moisture status of large fuels and crown fuels 

limits the frequency of moderate-to-high severity fires in the SBWC. These empirically described spatial and 

temporal relationships between fire, landscape attributes, and climate increase understanding of interactions 

among broad-scale ecosystem processes. Results also provide a historical baseline for fire management planning 

over broad spatial and temporal scales in each wilderness complex. 


Volume 17 

Issue 6 

Pages 539-557 



DOI 10.1023/A:1021584519109 


URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1021584519109 

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Extra Keywords: fire atlases; fire ecology; fire history; fire regimes; pattern-process interactions; Rocky Mountains. 



Land-use history (1720-1992), composition, and dynamics of oak-pine forests within the Piedmont and 

Coastal Plain of northern Virginia 


Author David A. Orwig 


Abstract Woody vegetation was surveyed in 58 forest stands in northern Virginia to examine the effects of previous 

land-use history on past and present-day forest composition and dynamics. Stands were separated using 

detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and overstory importance values into three forest groups: (i) white 

oak (Quercusalba L.)–tulip-poplar (Liriodendrontulipifera L.) (ii) white oak–scarlet oak (Quercuscoccinea 

Muenchh.) and (iii) Virginia pine (Pinusvirginiana Mill.) The first DCA axis represents a successional continuum 

from more recently disturbed areas containing young pine forests to less disturbed mature oak stands, and is 

negatively correlated with stand age and species diversity. White oak and red oak (Quercusrubra L.) dominated 

presettlement forests in the area. Following European settlement, forests experienced intense logging associated 

with the charcoal iron industry, large-scale clearing for agriculture, and subsequent land abandonment. By 

coupling radial growth analysis with age–diameter figures, we evaluated the responses of stands to disturbances 

associated with various land-use practices. This analysis indicated that many Virginia pine stands resulted from 

agricultural abandonment during the early 1900s, while a majority of oak stands experienced peak recruitment 

and radial growth following periodic logging disturbances in the 1800s. Canopy closure, forest protection, and 

reduced fire and logging disturbance this century led to increases in dogwood (Cornusflorida L.) and blackgum 

(Nyssasylvatica Marsh.) in area forests. The oldest stands exhibited a lack of tall oak regeneration; however, 

they also contained a scarcity of potential oak replacement species. Therefore, oak will seemingly share future 

dominance with several mixed-mesophytic species, although the exact successional status of these stands is 

unresolved. 


Volume 24 

Issue 6 

Pages 1216–1225 



DOI 10.1139/x94-160 

ISSN 0045-5067 




Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States 


Author Mark A. Drummond 

Author Thomas R. Loveland 

Abstract Contemporary land-use pressures have a significant impact on the extent and condition of forests in the eastern 

United States, causing a regional-scale decline in forest cover. Earlier in the 20th century, land cover was on a 

trajectory of forest expansion that followed agricultural abandonment. However, the potential for forest 

regeneration has slowed, and the extent of regional forest cover has declined by more than 4.0%. Using remotesensing 

data, statistical sampling, and change-detection methods, this research shows how land conversion 

varies spatially and temporally across the East from 1973–2000, and how those changes affect regional 

land-change dynamics. The analysis shows that agricultural land use has continued to decline, and that this 

enables forest recovery; however, an important land-cover transition has occurred, from a mode of regional 

forest-cover gain to one of forest-cover loss caused by timber cutting cycles, urbanization, and other land-use 

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demands. 


Volume 60 

Issue 4 

Pages 286-298 



DOI 10.1525/bio.2010.60.4.7 

ISSN 0006-3568 

URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/bio.2010.60.4.7 

Extra Keywords: forest cover; land-use change; forest transition; eastern United States. 



Large fires, fire effects and the fire-regime concept 



Author Grant Allan 

Abstract ‘Large’ fires may be declared so because of their absolute or relative area. Huge fires – with areas of more than 

10⁶ ha (10⁴ km²) have occurred across a wide spectrum of Australian environments and are known on other 

continents. Such large fires are rare whereas fires with much smaller areas are common. Large fires are initiated 

by single or multiple ignitions and become large because of some combination of: rapid rates of spread; long 

‘life’; merging, and failure of initial suppression operations. Fires as ecological ‘events’ occur within a ‘regime’ 

– an historical series. Both events and regimes have effects that may be discerned in terms of water, land, air or 

organisms. What have been regarded as the components of ‘regimes’ have differed between observers, the main 

issue being whether or not spatial variables need to be included; ‘area’ involvement is briefly addressed. The 

current trend toward fire-regime control through fuel treatment, including management (prescribed) burning, 

and fire suppression may be expected to continue. These trends, among others, can be expected to change fire 

regimes. What is regarded as ‘large’ among fires may change as the planet becomes increasingly humandominated. 


Volume 17 

Issue 6 

Pages 688-695 



DOI 10.1071/WF07145 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: biodiversity; catchment; interval; probability. 



Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997 



Author John A. Mason 




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Author Kelvin G. Hirsch 




Abstract A Large Fire Database (LFDB), which includes information on fire location, start date, final size, cause, and 

suppression action, has been developed for all fires larger than 200 ha in area for Canada for the 1959–1997 

period. The LFDB represents only 3.1% of the total number of Canadian fires during this period, the remaining 

96.9% of fires being suppressed while



DOI 10.1126/science.1197257 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Large-scale climatic patterns control large lightning fire occurrence in Canada and Alaska forest regions 




Abstract Large lightning wildfires in Canada and Alaska account for most of the area burnt and are main determiners of 

the age mosaic of the landscape. Such fires occur when positive midtroposphere height anomalies persist > 10 

days during the fire season. Midtroposphere anomalies are part of teleconnections which are created by 

atmospheric and coupled sea/air dynamics. Large lightning fire occurrence and area burnt data were used to 

define eight centers of large wildfire variability in Canada and Alaska during 1959–1999. Preferred positions of 

persistent positive midtroposphere anomalies correlated with the Fire Regions during large fire events. Active 

fire weather showed strong relations with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at interdecadal timescales and with 

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) mostly at interannual (2 to 6 years) 

timescales. PDO and ENSO (AO) related large fires were more frequent in the western (eastern) regions. The 

mountain ranges in western Canada play a major role in the large-scale patterns of large fire occurrence through 

retention of PDO-related Pacific Ocean moisture, causing the dynamics of large fires each side of the ranges to 

be mostly in antiphase. The PDO/ENSO regime shift of 1976/1977, together with the strong and persistent 

positive phase of AO during the late 1980s and 1990s contributed to the increase in area burned in the study 

area except in British Columbia and Alaska. PDO-ENSO-AO interactions with active fire weather provide an 

explanation for changes in large fire occurrence frequency during the last centuries in the area. 


Volume 111 

Issue 4 

Pages G04008 (17 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2006JG000181 

ISSN 0148-0227 


Extra Keywords: forest fires; boreal forest; climate change. 



Late Glacial and Holocene vegetation history and paleoclimate of the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona 


Author Chengyu Weng 

Author Stephen T. Jackson 

Abstract Sediment cores spanning the last 13,500 calendar years (cal yr) were obtained from two lakes (Fracas Lake, 

2518 m; Bear Lake, 2778 m) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona. Pollen and plant macrofossil records 

indicate that before ~12,900 cal yr B.P., high elevation landscapes of the Kaibab Plateau near Bear Lake were 

covered by alpine tundra, while lower elevations near Fracas Lake were occupied by Picea woodland. At 

~12,900 cal yr B.P., Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa forest expanded upward to occupy the top of the 

plateau. Pinus ponderosa arrived near Fracas Lake 11,000 cal yr B.P., replacing Picea forests. Since then, Pinus 

ponderosa forest has dominated the Fracas Lake area. Pinus ponderosa did not appear at Bear Lake until ~9730 

cal yr B.P. Mixed forests of Picea (mainly Picea pungens), Abies lasiocarpa, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga 

(after ~8000 cal yr B.P.) grew near Bear Lake for the remainder of the Holocene. Picea engelmannii populations 

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reexpanded near Bear Lake after 4000 cal yr B.P. Charcoal records indicate that fire probably helped Pinus 

ponderosa to become established near Bear Lake. Climate changes on the Kaibab Plateau since the Late Glacial 

were inferred from lake levels and vegetation patterns. The Late Glacial (>11,000 cal yr B.P.) was cold and 

probably wet. The early Holocene (11,000 to ~8000 cal yr B.P.) was cooler than today and may have been the 

wettest period. Fracas Lake and Bear Lake were probably deepest then. During this period, a strengthened 

summer monsoon brought in more moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. During the 

dry and warm mid-Holocene, Fracas Lake and Bear Lake experienced water-level declines. The late Holocene 

was relatively wet and cool again, and aquatic plants were abundant in the two lakes. Increasing effective 

moisture in the late Holocene was related to decreasing summer insolation. 


Volume 153 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 179–201 



DOI 10.1016/S0031-0182(99)00070-X 

ISSN 0031-0182 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003101829900070X 

Extra Keywords: Late Glacial; Holocene; paleoecology; vegetation change; paleoclimate; Colorado Plateau; 

palynology; Arizona. 



Late Wisconsin paleoecologic record from Swamp Lake, Yosemite National Park, California 


Author Susan J. Smith 


Abstract A 7.86-m sediment core from Swamp Lake in Yosemite National Park, California, provides a continuous record 

of environmental change over the last ca. 16,000 yr, as inferred from pollen, macrofossil, and microscopic 

charcoal analyses. The core stratigraphy documents late Wisconsin (Tioga stage) deglaciation between >16,000 

and 13,700 yr B.P., approximately 6000-3500 yr earlier than higher-elevation Sierra Nevada records. The core 

includes five volcanic ash layers, chemically identified as four Mono Craters ashes and the Tsoyawata ash (Mt. 

Mazama, Oregon). The fossil record shows that herbs and sagebrush dominated the glacial environment at 

Swamp Lake. By 12,000 yr B.P., a mixed conifer forest composed of high- and mid-elevation conifers grew 

around the lake, suggesting a cool, wet late-glacial environment. The modern Sierra montane forest did not 

become established until ca. 10,400 yr B.P., when maximum charcoal concentrations and minimum fir pollen 

percentages indicate an early Holocene xeric period. The record suggests that a cooling trend began ca. 6500 yr 

B.P. and persisted until ca. 3700 yr B.P. when the modern climatic regime was established. 


Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages 91–102 



DOI 10.1016/0033-5894(92)90032-E 

ISSN 0033-5894 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358949290032E 



Late-glacial vegetation and climate change in western Oregon 

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Author Laurie D. Grigg 


Abstract Pollen records from two sites in western Oregon provide information on late-glacial variations in vegetation and 

climate and on the extent and character of Younger Dryas cooling in the Pacific Northwest. A subalpine forest 

was present at Little Lake, central Coast Range, between 15,700 and 14,850 cal yr B.P. A warm period between 

14,850 and 14,500 cal yr B.P. is suggested by an increase inPseudotsugapollen and charcoal. The recurrence of 

subalpine forest at 14,500 cal yr B.P. implies a return to cool conditions. Another warming trend is evidenced by 

the reestablishment of Pseudotsugaforest at 14,250 cal yr B.P. Increased haploxylonPinuspollen between 12,400 

and 11,000 cal yr B.P. indicates cooler winters than before. After 11,000 cal yr B.P. warm dry conditions are 

implied by the expansion ofPseudotsuga.A subalpine parkland occupied Gordon Lake, western Cascade Range, 

until 14,500 cal yr B.P., when it was replaced during a warming trend by a montane forest. A rise inPinuspollen 

from 12,800 to 11,000 cal yr B.P. suggests increased summer aridity. Pseudotsugadominated the vegetation after 

11,000 cal yr B.P. Other records from the Pacific Northwest show an expansion ofPinusfrom ca. 13,000 to 

11,000 cal yr B.P. This expansion may be a response either to submillennial climate changes of Younger Dryas 

age or to millennial-scale climatic 


Volume 49 

Issue 3 

Pages 287-298 

Date May 1998 


DOI 10.1006/qres.1998.1966 

ISSN 0033-5894 




Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates 


Author Carlos Daniel Cadena 

Author Kenneth H. Kozak 

Author Juan Pablo Gomez 

Author Juan Luis Parra 

Author Christy M. McCain 

Author Rauri C. K. Bowie 

Author Ana C. Carnaval 

Author Craig Moritz 

Author Carsten Rahbek 

Author Trina E. Roberts 

Author Nathan J. Sanders 

Author Christopher J. Schneider 

Author Jeremy Van DerWal 

Author Kelly R. Zamudio 

Author Catherine H. Graham 

Abstract Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for 

this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical 

mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics 

relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, 

climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results 

regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the 

climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either 

the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and 

temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the 

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temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater 

similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary 

conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical 

mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of 

species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial 

datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the 

high biodiversity of tropical montane regions. 

Publication Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 



Journal Abbr Proc. R. Soc. B 

DOI 10.1098/rspb.2011.0720 

ISSN 0962-8452 

URL http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rspb.2011.0720 

Extra Keywords: allopatric speciation; diversification; ecological speciation; latitudinal diversity gradient; niche 

conservatism. 



Learning from integrated assessment of climate change 


Author M. Granger Morgan 

Author Hadi Dowlatabadi 

Abstract The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to 

evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained 

from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, in Section 2 we ask: 

who are the climate decision makers? We conclude that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all 

over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated 

with results from the ICAM-2 model. In Section 3 we ask: what is the climate problem? In addition to the 

conventional answer, we note that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected 

representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific 

issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing 

greenhouse gases, are discussed. In Section 4 we discuss studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, 

the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value 

change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. We conclude by noting 

that equity has received too little attention in past work. We argue that many conventional tools for policy 

analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, 

pose particularly important challenges for the future. 


Volume 34 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 337-368 



DOI 10.1007/BF00139297 

ISSN 0165-0009 




Length of the fire season in a changing climate 


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Abstract The Canadian Climate Centre's General Circulation Model provides two 10-year data sets of simulated daily 

weather for a large array of gridpoints across North America. A subset of this data, comprised of only those 

points within the forested part of Canada, was selected for study. Fire season length was calculated from data 

sets of both the 1×CO₂ and 2×CO₂ runs of the model as well as for the actual climate, using observed data from 

weather stations. A comparison made between the results of the 1×CO₂ and 2×CO₂ runs indicated a 

significantly longer fire season across the country under a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ levels. Implications of 

this result, such as a fall fire season in Canada's east and greater strains on management agencies, are discussed. 

Publication The Forestry Chronicle 

Volume 69 

Issue 2 

Pages 187–192 


Journal Abbr Forest Chron. 

DOI 10.5558/tfc69187-2 

ISSN 0015-7546 

URL http://pubs.cif-ifc.org/doi/abs/10.5558/tfc69187-2 



Lessons from Earth's past 


Author Jeffrey Kiehl 

Abstract Climate models are invaluable tools for understanding Earth's climate system. But examination of the real world 

also provides insights into the role of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide) in determining Earth's climate. Not only 

can much be learned by looking at the observational evidence from Earth's past, but such know ledge can 

provide context for future climate change. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6014 

Pages 158-159 



DOI 10.1126/science.1199380 

ISSN 0036-8075 




LFM forecast variables related to Santa Ana wind occurrences 


Author William T Sommers 

Abstract Surface weather conditions in the southern California mountains during Santa Ana occurrences are related to 

LFM forecast variables. The strong downslope winds and low relative humidities during Santa Ana conditions 

pose a serious fire problem. Synoptic conditions leading to Santa Anas should incorporate subsidence and flow 

perpendicular to the local mountains, at mid-tropospheric levels, on the windward side of the mountains. Twelve 

hour LFM 500 mb forecasts of height, wind and omega, in relation to Santa Ana wind occurrence, were 

examined for 16 cases. A case study illustrates the typical synoptic-scale transition to subsiding, northerly flow 

that leads to Santa Ana occurrence. A graphic summary shows how the relative strength of the 16 cases was 

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related to LFM v wind component and omega forecasts. 


Volume 106 

Issue 9 

Pages 1307-1316 



ISSN 0027-0644 


/1520-0493%281978%29106%3C1307%3ALFVRTS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Lightning activity as an indicator of climate change 


Author N. Reeve 

Author Ralf Toumi 

Abstract Data from the Optical Transient Detector lightning sensor are analysed to investigate the hypothesis that global 

lightning activity will increase should the average global temperature increase. It is shown that changes in global 

monthly land lightning activity are well correlated with changes in global monthly land wet-bulb temperatures. 

the correlation is strongest in the northern hemisphere and weak in the southern hemisphere. the conclusion is 

that a high land-area to sea-area ratio is necessary for a good correlation. Contrary to expectation, the tropics 

show no correlation. the results predict that a change in the average land wet-bulb temperature of the globe of 

just 1K would result in a change in lightning activity of about 40%. 

Publication Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 

Volume 125 

Issue 555 

Pages 893-903 

Date April 1999 Part A 

Journal Abbr Q. J. Royal Met. Soc. 

DOI 10.1002/qj.49712555507 

ISSN 00359009 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.49712555507 

Extra Keywords: optical; transient; detector; satellite observation. 



Lightning fires in North Dakota grasslands and in pine-savanna lands of South Dakota and Montana 


Author Kenneth F. Higgins 

Abstract Lightning strike fires which occurred between 1940 and 1981 were studied in mixed-grass prairie grasslands and 

in pine-savanna lands in the northern Great Plains region. A majority (73%) of ignitions occurred during July 

and August, while a lesser number was recorded in April, May, June, and September. The April-September 

period is also the average time of the freeze-free period and approximates the average distribution period for 

thunderstorm activity in this region. The area burned by each of 293 lightning fires (most of which were 

suppressed) ranged from 0.004-1158.3 ha (X super(-) = 10.8 ha), The frequency of lightning fires in mixed grass 

prairie grasslands averaged 6.0/yr per 10,000 km² in eastern North Dakota. 22.4/yr per 10,000 km² in 

southcentral North 91.7/yr per 10,000 km² in pine-savanna lands in northwestern South Dakota and 

southeastern Montana. The ecological role of lightning-set fires is discussed relative to the development of 

resource research and management plans and to the interpretation of historical records of natural fire 

occurrence in the Northern Great Plains region. 

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Volume 37 

Issue 2 

Pages 100–103 



ISSN 0022-409X 




Lightning strikes and resultant fires from archival (1912-1917) and current (1960-1997) information in 

Pennsylvania 




Abstract Archival information was searched for evidence of lightning strikes and subsequent ignitions in Pennsylvania 

forests. Between 1912-1917, twentyeight different tree species were struck by lightning 2553 times igniting 77 

individual trees. These data probably underestimate the number of ignited fires due to rugged terrain, inefficient 

fire reporting, and minimal fire control resources of this early era. Lightning strikes occurred most often 

between June-August, peaking in July with 877 strikes. These data provide direct evidence that lightning strikes 

and tree ignitions occur relatively frequently in Pennsylvania forests. Recent data provide substantial evidence 

for large areas burned by lightning ignitions during drought years in the past thirty-seven years 

Publication Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society 

Volume 125 

Issue 3 

Pages 249–252 

Date July - September 1998 

Journal Abbr J. Torrey Bot. Soc. 

ISSN 10955674 


Extra Keywords: lightning strikes; forest fires; archival data. 



Limiting the magnitude of future climate change 

Type Book 







ISBN 978-0-309-14597-8 

URL http://americasclimatechoices.org/panelmitigation.shtml 



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Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming 


Author Hong S. He 



Abstract No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking 

an ecosystem process model (linkages) with a spatial landscape model (landis) to examine forest species 

responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual 

species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with linkages, which integrates soil, climate and species 

data, stratified by ecoregions. Individual species biomass results, simulated by linkages at year 10, were 

quantified using an empirical equation as species establishment coefficients (0.0-1.0). These coefficients were 

used to parameterize landis, thus integrating ecosystem dynamics with large-scale landscape processes such as 

seed dispersal and fire disturbance. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated 

with landis. landis was parameterized with information derived from a species level, forest classification map, 

and inventory data. This incorporates spatially-explicit seed source distributions. A standard landis run with 

natural fire disturbance regime and current climate was conducted for 400 years. To simulate the effects of 

climate change, the differences in species establishment coefficients from current and warmer climates were 

linearly interpolated over the first 100 years assuming climate warming will occur gradually over the next 

century. The model was then run for another 300 years to examine the consequences after warming. Across the 

landscape, the decline of boreal species and the increases of temperate species were observed in the simulation. 

The responses of northern temperate hardwood species vary among ecoregions depending on soil nutrient and 

water regimes. Simulation results indicate that boreal species disappear from the landscape in 200-300 years and 

approximately same amount of time for a southern species to become common. Warming can accelerate the 

re-colonization process for current species such as found for eastern hemlock, where moisture does not become 

limiting. However, the re-colonization is strongly affected by available seed source explicitly described on the 

landscape. These phenomena cannot be simulated with most gap models, which assume a random seed rain. 


Volume 114 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 213-233 



DOI 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00147-1 

ISSN 0304-3800 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBS-3VF1HC9-5/2/83ca3d6da4bb39cc2193c06121d8026a 

Extra Keywords: gap model; LINKAGES; spatial landscape model; LANDIS; species establishment coefficient; 

climate warming. 



Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change 

in boreal forests 





Author Mark A. Olson 

Author Patricia M. Anderson 


Abstract Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on 

fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records 

with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and 

apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the 

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south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are 

estimated over the past 7000 calibrated ¹⁴C years (7–0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in 

charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term 

CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed 

vegetation and climate for 7–5 kyr BP and 5–0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative 

paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7–5 and 

5–0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total 

precipitation of the growing season for 7–0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation 

for 5–0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5–0 kyr BP, with static temperature 

and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7–5 

and 5–0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in staticvegetation 

scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7–5 kyr BP and for 

two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5–0 kyr BP. In these 

scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape 

flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios 

indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7–5 and 5–0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and 

ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological 

mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of 

Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will 

mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes. 


Volume 90 

Issue 7 

Pages 1788-1801 



DOI 10.1890/08-0797.1 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Alaska, USA; Alaska Frame-based Ecosystem Code; ALFRESCO; black spruce; boreal forest; 

Brooks Range; charcoal records; data-model comparison; fire regime; Picea; white spruce. 



Little evidence for fire-adapted plant traits in Mediterranean climate regions 


Author S. Don Bradshaw 

Author Kingsley W. Dixon 

Author Stephen D. Hopper 

Author Hans Lambers 

Author Shane R. Turner 

Abstract As climate change increases vegetation combustibility, humans are impacted by wildfires through loss of lives 

and property, leading to an increased emphasis on prescribed burning practices to reduce hazards. A key and 

pervading concept accepted by most environmental managers is that combustible ecosystems have traditionally 

burnt because plants are fire adapted. In this opinion article, we explore the concept of plant traits adapted to 

fire in Mediterranean climates. In the light of major threats to biodiversity conservation, we recommend caution 

in deliberately increasing fire frequencies if ecosystem degradation and plant extinctions are to be averted as a 

result of the practice. 

Publication Trends in Plant Science 

Volume 16 

Issue 2 

Pages 69-76 


Journal Abbr Trends Plant Sci. 

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DOI 10.1016/j.tplants.2010.10.007 

ISSN 1360-1385 





Livestock grazing-fire regime interactions within montane forests of Zion National Park, Utah 


Author Michael H. Madany 

Author Niel E. West 

Abstract Major differences were found between the vegetation structure of ponderosa pine-dominanted communities on 

the Horse Pasture Plateau and those on the nearby but isolated Church and Greatheart Mesas in Zion National 

Park. The Horse Pasture Plateau was heavily grazed by livestock in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, while 

the mesas were never grazed. Conditions on the mesas now approximate the pre-European situation of the 

region as described in the earliest written accounts. Pine, oak, and juniper sapling density and cover were much 

higher on the formerly grazed plateau than on the relict mesas. Herbaceous species dominated the groundlayer 

in mesa ponderosa pine savanna stands, while grass and forb cover was low on analogous sites of the plateau. 

Age-class distributions of major tree species further substantiated that major physiognomic changes have 

occurred on the plateau since the arrival of European man. Analysis of fire scars showed that prior to 1881, the 

mean fire-free interval for ponderosa pine stands on the plateau was 4 to 7 yr, while the interval for Church 

Mesa was 69 yr. Since there were no recorded fires on Church Mesa between 1892 and 1964, and yet no 

corresponding increase in sapling density, the increased understory density of plateau stands should not be 

attributed primarily to cessation of fires. Instead, heavy grazing by livestock and associated reduction of the 

herbaceous groundlayer promoted the establishment of less palatable tree and shrub seedlings, Fire, however, 

played an important secondary role in maintaining savanna and woodland communities. 


Volume 64 

Issue 4 

Pages 661-667 



DOI 10.2307/1937186 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: fire history; grazing effects; Pinus ponderosa; Quercus gambelii; relict mesas; savanna; Utah. 



Local and regional sediment charcoal evidence for fire regimes in presettlement north-eastern North 

America 



Author P. Daniel Royall 

Abstract Summary: 1. Presettlement fire regimes in north-eastern North America and their dependence on climate, fuels, 

and cultural patterns are poorly understood due to lack of relevant historic or palaeoecological data. Annual 

records of sediment charcoal accumulation were compiled from seven sites spanning the last 2000 years and 

representing important climate, vegetation, and cultural settings. Results were compared across sites and across 

changes in Indian cultures to determine whether fire patterns might be explained by one or more of these 

variables. 2. Clearly interpretable fires were restricted to the western (most xeric) portion of our study region in 

Pine Hardwoods of Minnesota, a single fire in Northern Hardwoods of northern Wisconsin, and cultural burning 

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near an Iroquois village in southern Ontario. Other sites in Northern Hardwoods and Hardwood-Hemlock forests 

did not show clear evidence of fire. Spectral analysis suggested instances in which local fire regimes departed 

from regional ones. 3. Our interpretation suggests substantially longer intervals between fires than reported in 

previous sediment charcoal studies. We did not find evidence for fire in mixed oak forests, where it has been 

speculated that fire might be necessary for oak recruitment, suggesting need for further analysis. 4. A single site 

in northern Wisconsin was the only Algonquin site showing a clear increase in charcoal suggesting local fire. 

Algonquin use of fire for hunting may not have affected our sites. A single site in Sioux territory experienced 

such frequent fire that cultural effects were not evident, even when Sioux were replaced by Chippewa 

(Algonquin) in the 18th century. One of two Iroquois sites showed clear increases in charcoal during occupation. 

The second site may not have had settlements nearby. 


Volume 84 

Issue 3 

Pages 365-382 



ISSN 0022-0477 


Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; climate; fire. 



Local and synoptic mechanisms causing Southern California’s Santa Ana winds 




Abstract The atmospheric conditions that lead to strong offshore surface winds in Southern California, commonly 

referred to as Santa Ana winds, are investigated using the North American Regional Reanalysis and a 12-year, 

6-km resolution regional climate simulation of Southern California. We first construct an index to characterize 

Santa Ana events based on offshore wind strength. This index is then used to identify the average synoptic 

conditions associated with Santa Ana events—a high pressure anomaly over the Great Basin. This pressure 

anomaly causes offshore geostrophic winds roughly perpendicular to the region’s mountain ranges, which in turn 

cause surface flow as the offshore momentum is transferred to the surface. We find, however, that there are 

large variations in the synoptic conditions during Santa Ana conditions, and that there are many days with strong 

offshore flow and weak synoptic forcing. This is due to local thermodynamic forcing that also causes strong 

offshore surface flow: a large temperature gradient between the cold desert surface and the warm ocean air at 

the same altitude creates an offshore pressure gradient at that altitude, in turn causing katabatic-like offshore 

flow in a thin layer near the surface. We quantify the contribution of “synoptic” and “local thermodynamic” 

mechanisms using a bivariate linear regression model, and find that, unless synoptic conditions force strongly 

onshore winds, the local thermodynamic forcing is the primary control on Santa Ana variability. 


Volume 34 

Issue 6 

Pages 847-857 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0650-4 

ISSN 0930-7575 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0650-4 

Extra Keywords: Santa Ana winds; katabatic winds; regional climate. 



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Locations and environments of US army training and testing lands: An ecoregional framework for 

assessment 


Author William W. Doe III 

Author Robert B. Shaw 


Author David S. Jones 

Author Thomas E. Macia 

Abstract The U.S. Army manages over 12 million acres of federal training and testing lands contained within military 

installations throughout the 50 United States. These lands are a critical national asset for defense readiness, 

dedicated to providing realistic training and testing environments for army units and equipment. The locations 

and physiographic diversity of the Army's current land inventory is a function of historical precedent, 

modern-day land expansions, and requirements for strategic projection of forces. Many Army lands are 

relatively undeveloped, providing important ecological settings for a variety of flora and fauna, including many 

threatened and endangered species. As a responsible land steward, the Army is committed to protection and 

sustainable use of these natural resources, with concurrent benefit to both the army and the public. Army 

training and testing activities can cause environmental impacts that may be detrimental to the long-term 

sustainment of ecological functions. These realities pose significant land management challenges to the Army. 

The application of established ecologicalframeworks for strategically assessing land-use impacts and land 

management approaches is demonstrated for 31 major Army installations, using Bailey's “ecoregion 

classification system,” developed by the U.S. Forest Service. The Ecoregions framework is used to (1) classify 

and catalog the ecological diversity of Army lands, (2) provide a comparative framework for assessing land 

resiliencyfrom Army impacts, and (3) extrapolate knowledge of perturbed ecosystem behavior and response 

from one army installation to others in similar ecoregions. 

Publication Federal Facilities Environmental Journal 

Volume 10 

Issue 3 

Pages 9–26 

Date Autumn (Fall) 1999 

Journal Abbr Fed. Facil. Environ. J. (FFEJ) 

DOI 10.1002/ffej.3330100303 

ISSN 1520-6513 

Short Title Locations and environments of US army training and testing lands 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffej.3330100303/abstract 



Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province 






Abstract A statistical forecast methodology exploits large-scale patterns in monthly U.S. Climatological Division Palmer 

Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values over a wide region and several seasons to predict area burned in western 

U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province a season in advance. The forecast model, which is based on canonical 

correlations, indicates that a few characteristic patterns determine predicted wildfire season area burned. Strong 

negative associations between anomalous soil moisture (inferred from PDSI) immediately prior to the fire 

season and area burned dominate in most higher elevation forested provinces, while strong positive associations 

between anomalous soil moisture a year prior to the fire season and area burned dominate in desert and shrub 

and grassland provinces. In much of the western U.S., above- and below-normal fire season forecasts were 

successful 57% of the time or better, as compared with a 33% skill for a random guess, and with a low 

probability of being surprised by a fire season at the opposite extreme of that forecast. 

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Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 257-266 

Date 2002 


DOI 10.1071/WF02009 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF02009 

Extra Keywords: climatology. 



Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States 




Author C. Mark Eakin 



Abstract The western United States is experiencing a severe multiyear drought that is unprecedented in some 

hydroclimatic records. Using gridded drought reconstructions that cover most of the western United States over 

the past 1200 years, we show that this drought pales in comparison to an earlier period of elevated aridity and 

epic drought in AD 900 to 1300, an interval broadly consistent with the Medieval Warm Period. If elevated 

aridity in the western United States is a natural response to climate warming, then any trend toward warmer 

temperatures in the future could lead to a serious long-term increase in aridity over western North America. 


Volume 306 

Issue 5698 

Pages 1015-1018 



DOI 10.1126/science.1102586 

ISSN 1095-9203 




Long-term fire history from alluvial fan sediments: The role of drought and climate variability, and 

implications for management of Rocky Mountain forests 


Author Jennifer Pierce 

Author Grant Meyer 

Abstract Alluvial fan deposits are widespread and preserve millennial-length records of fire. We used these records to 

examine changes in fire regimes over the last 2000 years in Yellowstone National Park mixed-conifer forests 

and drier central Idaho ponderosa pine forests. In Idaho, frequent, small, fire-related erosional events occurred 

within the Little Ice Age (~1450–1800 AD), when greater effective moisture probably promoted grass growth 

and low-severity fires. This regime is consistent with tree-ring records showing generally wetter conditions and 

frequent fires before European settlement. At higher elevations in Yellowstone, cool conditions limited overall 

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fire activity. Conversely, both Idaho and Yellowstone experienced a peak in fire-related debris flows between 

~950 and 1150 AD. During this generally warmer time, severe multidecadal droughts were interspersed with 

unusually wet intervals that probably increased forest densities, producing stand-replacing fires. Thus, severe 

fires are clearly within the natural range of variability in Idaho ponderosa pine forests over longer timescales. 

Historical records indicate that large burn areas in Idaho correspond with drought intervals within the past 100 

years and that burn area has increased markedly since ~1985. Recent stand-replacing fires in ponderosa pine 

forests are likely related to both changes in management and increasing temperatures and drought severity 

during the 20th century. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 84-95 



DOI 10.1071/WF07027 

ISSN 1049-8001 

Short Title Long-term fire history from alluvial fan sediments 


Extra Keywords: debris flows; Idaho; ponderosa pine; Yellowstone. 



Long-term fire history in Great Basin sagebrush reconstructed from macroscopic charcoal in spring 

sediments, Newark Valley, Nevada 


Author Scott Mensing 

Author Stephanie Livingston 

Author Pat Barker 

Abstract We use macroscopic charcoal analysis to reconstruct fire history in sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata var. 

wyomingensis and A. tridentata var. tridentate), in Newark Valley, Nevada. We analyzed charcoal at continuous 

1-cm intervals (~7-127 years), and pollen at 2- to 10-cm intervals (~70-263 years) in a core spanning the last 

5500 cal yr BP (calendar years before present). A charcoal peak in the historic period was associated with a 

>1400-ha fire dated to 1986 that burned in the watershed. We reconstructed the prehistoric fire history by 

inferring fires from similar charcoal peaks that were significantly greater than the background charcoal 

accumulation. Our results suggest the fire regime is climate and fuel driven. During periods of wetter climate, 

sagebrush increased and fires were more abundant, and during extended dry periods when sagebrush decreased, 

fires were less frequent. Our method does not allow calculation of a fire-return interval; however, our results 

support models that estimate a mean fire-return interval of up to a century in Artemisia tridentata var. 

wyomingensis. The charcoal record indicates that fires have increased within the historic period. This contrasts 

with pinyon/juniper studies that indicate an expansion of woodland associated with fewer fires in the historic 

period. We suggest that in the central Great Basin, a regime of frequent fires in sagebrush that limits woodland 

expansion is true for the sagebrush-woodland ecotone, but in sagebrush-dominated valleys with lower fuel 

loads, fires have always been less frequent. Protecting sagebrush-dominated valleys from frequent fire would 

appear to be consistent with the prehistoric fire regime. 

Publication Western North American Naturalist 

Volume 66 

Issue 1 

Pages 64-77 


Journal Abbr West N. Am. Naturalist 

DOI 10.3398/1527-0904(2006)66[64:LFHIGB]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1527-0904 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3398/1527-0904(2006)66%5B64:LFHIGB%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Archive https://ojs.lib.byu.edu/wnan/index.php/wnan/article/view/1475 

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Extra Keywords: sagebrush; fire history; charcoal; Nevada; Great Basin; Artemisia tridentata var. wyomingensis. 



Long-term fire regime estimated from soil charcoal in coastal temperate rainforests 


Author Ken Lertzman 

Author Daniel Gavin 

Author Douglas Hallett 

Author Linda Brubaker 

Author Dana Lepofsky 

Author Rolf Mathewes 

Abstract Coastal temperate rainforests from southeast Alaska through to southern Oregon are ecologically distinct from 

forests of neighboring regions, which have a drier, or more continental, climate and disturbance regimes 

dominated by fires. The long-term role of fire remains one of the key outstanding sources of uncertainty in the 

historical dynamics of the wetter and less seasonal forests that dominate the northerly two thirds of the 

rainforest region in British Columbia and Alaska. Here, we describe the long-term fire regime in two forests on 

the south coast of British Columbia by means of 244 AMS radiocarbon dates of charcoal buried in forest soils. 

In both forests, some sites have experienced no fire over the last 6000 years and many other sites have 

experienced only one or two fires during that time. Intervals between fires vary from a few centuries to several 

thousand years. In contrast to other conifer forests, this supports a model of forest dynamics where fires are of 

minor ecological importance. Instead, forest history is dominated by fine-scale processes of disturbance and 

recovery that maintain an ubiquitous late-successional character over the forest landscape. This has significant 

implications for ecosystem-based forest management and our understanding of carbon storage in forest soils. 

Publication Conservation Ecology 

Volume 6 

Issue 2 

Pages 1-13 


Journal Abbr Conserv. Ecol. 

ISSN 1708-3087 

URL http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss2/art5 

Extra Keywords: Clayoquot Sound; Fraser Valley; coastal temperate rainforests; fire intervals; long-term fire regime; 

soil carbon storage; soil charcoal; sub-alpine forest; time-since-fire. 



Long-term forest dynamics of the temperate zone: A case study of late-Quaternary forests in eastern 

North America 

Type Book 



Abstract Description: This study represents a comprehensive and quantitative examination of the paleoecological 

evidence for forest community development in the Temperate Zone of Eastern North America since the last 

glacial maximum 20,000 years ago. A computerized fossil-pollen data set, compiled from 162 radiocarbon-dated 

paleoecological sites were used. Their fossil pollen spectra were transformed into an estimate of past dominance 

for 19 major tree taxa. Ecological ordination of the data allowed evaluation of the degree of persistence. 

Measurement of the rates of spread along major migration routes give new insights into the biogeography of 

temperate and boreal trees. These extensive studies are of interest to graduate students and researchers in all 

fields of ecology, as well as biogeography. 


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Volume 63 


Place New York; Berlin 



# of Pages xiii, 439 p. 

ISBN 0387964959 

URL http://www.amazon.com/Long-Term-Forest-Dynamics-Temperate-Zone/dp/0387964959 

Extra Subjects: pollen, fossil; paleoecology; paleobotany; forest dynamics; quaternary; North America. 



Long-term history of vegetation and fire in pitch pine-oak forests on Cape Cod, Massachusetts 


Author Tim Parshall 

Author David R. Foster 

Author Edward Faison 

Author D. MacDonald 

Author Barbara C. S. Hansen 

Abstract Human disturbance in northeastern North America over the past four centuries has led to dramatic change in 

vegetation composition and ecosystem processes, obscuring the influence of climate and edaphic factors on 

vegetation patterns. We use a paleoecological approach on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to assess landscape-scale 

variation in pitch pine–oak vegetation and fire occurrence on the pre-European landscape and to determine 

changes resulting from European land use. Fossil pollen and charcoal preserved in seven lakes confirm a close 

link between landform and the pre-European distribution of vegetation. Pine forests, dominated by Pinus rigida, 

were closely associated with xeric outwash deposits, whereas oak–hardwood forests were associated with 

landforms having finer grained soils and variable topography. In general, fire was much more abundant on Cape 

Cod than most other areas in New England, but its occurrence varied geographically at two scales. On the 

western end of Cape Cod, fires were more prevalent in pine forests (outwash) than in oak–hardwood forests 

(moraines). In contrast, fires were less common on the narrow and north–south trending eastern Cape, perhaps 

because of physical limits on fire spread. The most rapid and substantial changes during the past 2000 years 

were initiated by European settlement, which produced a vegetation mosaic that today is less clearly tied to 

landform. Quercus and other hardwood trees declined in abundance in the early settlement period in association 

with land clearance, whereas Pinus has increased, especially during the past century, through natural 

reforestation and planting of abandoned fields and pastures. An increase in fossil charcoal following European 

settlement suggests that fire occurrence has risen substantially as a result of forest clearance and other land 

uses, reaching levels greater than at any time over the past 2000 years. Although fire was undoubtedly used by 

Native Americans and may have been locally important, we find no clear evidence that humans extensively 

modified fire regimes or vegetation before European settlement. Instead, climate change over the past several 

thousand years and European land use over the past 300 years have been the most important agents of change 

on this landscape. 


Volume 84 

Issue 3 

Pages 736–748 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0736:LTHOVA]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Cape Cod; Massachusetts (USA); charcoal; land use; paleoecology; pitch pine–oak forest; pollen. 



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Long-term relations among fire, fuel, and climate in the north-western US based on lake-sediment 

studies 






Author Long Colin 

Author Patrick Gonzalez 

Abstract Pollen and high-resolution charcoal records from the north-western USA provide an opportunity to examine the 

linkages among fire, climate, and fuels on multiple temporal and spatial scales. The data suggest that general 

charcoal levels were low in the late-glacial period and increased steadily through the last 11 000 years with 

increasing fuel biomass. At local scales, fire occurrence is governed by the interaction of site controls, including 

vegetation, local climate and fire weather, and topography. At subregional scales, patterns in the long term 

fire-episode frequency data are apparent: The Coast Range had relatively few fires in the Holocene, whereas 

the Klamath–Siskiyou region experienced frequent fire episodes. Fire regimes in the northern Rocky Mountains 

have been strongly governed by millennial- and centennial-scale climate variability and regional differences in 

summer moisture. At regional scales, sites in present-day summer-dry areas show a period of protracted high fire 

activity within the early Holocene that is attributed to intensified summer drought in the summer-dry region. 

Sites in summer-wet areas show the opposite pattern, that fire was lower in frequency than present in the early 

Holocene as result of strengthened monsoonal circulation then. Higher fire-episode frequency at many sites in 

the last 2000 years is attributed to greater drought during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and possibly 

anthropogenic burning. The association between drought, increased fire occurrence, and available fuels evident 

on several time scales suggests that long-term fire history patterns should be considered in current assessments 

of historical fire regimes and fuel conditions. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 72–83 



DOI 10.1071/WF07025 

ISSN 1049-8001 



Extra Keywords: charcoal data; fire history; Holocene; pollen data; western US. 



Long-term, landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado 



Author Merrill R. Kaufmann 

Author Wayne D. Shepperd 

Abstract Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of 

fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire 

events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central 

Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 

fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the 

present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of 

trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years 

across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the 

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landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from 

low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also 

possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing 

seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past 

several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further 

suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman 

Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in 

previous studies. 


Volume 14 

Issue 6 

Pages 513–532 



DOI 10.1023/A:1008137005355 

ISSN 0921-2973 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/l664451m04614674/ 

Extra Keywords: crossdating; dendrochronology; fire chronology; fire extent; fire frequency; fire scars; fire regimes; 

fire seasonality; fire severity. 



Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium 



Author Jose Villanueva-Diaz 

Author Dorian J. Burnette 

Author Julian Cerano-Paredes 

Author Richard R. Heim Jr. 

Author Falko K. Fye 

Author Rodolfo Acuña-Soto 

Author Matthew D. Therrell 

Author Malcolm K. Cleaveland 

Author Daniel K. Stahle 

Abstract Ancient Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees found in Barranca de Amealco, Queretaro, 

have been used to develop a 1,238-year tree-ring chronology that is correlated with precipitation, temperature, 

drought indices, and crop yields in central Mexico. This chronology has been used to reconstruct the 

spring-early summer soil moisture balance over the heartland of the Mesoamerican cultural province, and is the 

first exactly dated, annually resolved paleoclimatic record for Mesoamerica spanning the Late Classic, Post 

Classic, Colonial, and modern eras. The reconstruction indicates that the Terminal Classic drought extended into 

central Mexico, supporting other sedimentary and speleothem evidence for this early 10th century drought in 

Mesoamerica. The reconstruction also documents severe and sustained drought during the decline of the Toltec 

state (1149–1167) and during the Spanish conquest of the Aztec state (1514–1539), providing a new precisely 

dated climate framework for Mesoamerican cultural change. 


Volume 38 

Issue 5 

Pages L05703 (4 p.) 



DOI 201110.1029/2010GL046472 

ISSN 0094–8276 


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Extra Keywords: drought; Mesoameric; tree rings. 



Man and fire in the central North American grassland, 1535-1890: A documentary historical geography 

Type Thesis 

Author Conrad Taylor Moore 

Abstract Numerous scholars have raised questions and drawn conclusions concerning the causes and ecological effects of 

fires and their seasons of occurrence in the Central North American Grassland prior to permanent white 

settlement. These have consisted of either generalized discussions or more precise local analyses. None have 

examined the issues in detail for the entire region or attempted to point out geographical patterns pertaining to 

them. In the present study these issues are considered in the light of information contained in historical 

documents. Over six hendred diaries, journals and memoirs left by whites who visited or resided in the area 

during the period 1535-1890 were examined. Four hudred and eighteen dated fires and brns were used for 

regionalization of the area on the basis of seasons of fire occurrence. Four distinct regions were delimited- 

Northeast, Northwest, Central, and Southern. Data pertaining to Indian tribes and white occupational groups 

responsible for fires, the reasons for their occurrence, and effects on plants, animals, and man were analyzed for 

each of the regions. Lighting was not considered as a significant causal factor since only one specific historical 

reference was recorded. Privious investigators have stressed the importance of spring and fall fires, but the 

frequent occurrence of winter fires in the Southern Region and summer fires on the other three regions seems to 

have gone largely unrecoginized. No attempts have been made to determine responsibility for fires started by 

members of the various Indian tribes residing in the area. Historical data indicate that the Sioux and Apache 

were responsible for fires well in excess of what would have been expectable in relation to tribal populations. 

Soldiers, tourists, explorers, and emigrants accounted for two-thirds of the cases in which white occupational 

groups were mentioned. Hunting, pasturage improvement, and acciedent have been regarded as the most 

important reasons for fires started by Indians. Present findings suggest that although hunting was of major 

significance, it was generally of lesser importance than grass fires set for signalling purposes or those related to 

warfare. Pasturage improvement and accident, as well as horse stealing, were secondary causes. Fires started by 

whites both accidentally and to improve pasturage conditons have been mentioned as important factors. While 

this is supported by early accounts, fires were also frequently set for communication and pleasure. More 

sophisticated recent studies of the effects of fire on vegetation are in general agreement with data contained in 

the historical record, but discrepancies are significant with respect to effects on animals. Deaths of both native 

and domesticated animals appear to have occurred much more frequntly than has been recently recognized. 

Little attentions has been directed toward the problem of the effects of fire on man. Historical citations 

pertaining to human deaths and injuries, and insufficient forage for transportation animals accounted for forty 

percent of the cases mentioned. Other travel-related problems such as obstacles created by fire-felled trees, lack 

of fuel for cooking, and the obscuring of trails were also frequently cited. 


University University of California, Los Angeles 

Place Los Angeles, CA. 

Date 1972 


Short Title Man and fire in the central North American grassland, 1535-1890 

URL http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb? 

did=759633331&… 



Man and the land : An ecological history of fire and grazing on eastern Oregon rangelands 

Type Thesis 

Author Dean Allison Shinn 

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Abstract Ecological and historical information are combined in examining the environmental influence of fire and grazing 

on rangelands in eastern Oregon through time. Competitive relationships between herbaceous and woody flora 

in the northern Great Basin are discussed, focusing broadly on the shrubsteppe regions 'of Franklin and Dyrness 

(1973) but with special reference to the Artemisia/Agropyron association. Impacts of native and domestic 

grazing animals and of cultural burning are traced from the distant past into recent history. During the 

Pleistocene Epoch North America supported a wide diversity of large mammals. Toward the end of the 

Pleistocene, many of these fauna became extinct, perhaps as a result of post-glacial climatic change, perhaps 

also under the influence of incoming primitive hunting cultures and their broadcast burning practices. Some 

question exists about the intensity of native grazing in the northern Great Basin during the last few thousand 

years. Actual levels of bison populations and the duration of their residence in the study area have not been 

determined. The character of indigenous vegetations, however, indicates that native grazing was relatively light 

for an extended period primevally. Twenty-four references to native cultural burning at the time of European 

contact were found in historical journals. Though the antiquity of these customs is uncertain, an analysis of 

Native American fire myths demonstrates the depth of native cultural perceptions of the relationship between 

man and fire, and supports the likelihood that fire was used primevally in the northern Great Basin as it was 

used by aboriginal peoples elsewhere in North America. With the influx of European culture during the 19th 

century, misapprehensions about fire among whites distorted the influence of native cultural burning. Exotic 

flora and fauna were introduced, and ecosystems began to change. Large herds of livestock depleted native 

herbaceous populations. Early irresponsible burning by whites became associated with declining rangeland 

resources, and efforts toward total fire suppression became incorporated in developing conservation policies. 

Native woody flora and exotics began to invade open rangeland communities. Climatic flux during the period of 

European settlement in the northern Great Basin may have exacerbated the impacts of intensified grazing and 

elimination of burning. Early photographs of rangelands in east-central Oregon were gathered; their dates range 

from 1880 to the early 1930's. Sites represented in these pictures were re-photographed in 1976. Photo-set 

comparisons show expansion of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) populations into rangeland ecosystems, 

demonstrating the consequences of cultural disturbances during the last 150 to 200 years. 

Type M.A. Thesis 

University Oregon Sate University 


Date 1977 (Graduation: 1978) 


Short Title Man and the land 

URL http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/jspui/handle/1957/6737 



Management of fire regime, fuels, and fire effects in southern California chaparral: Lessons from the 

past and thoughts for the future 



Author David R. Weise 

Abstract Chaparral is an intermediate fire-return interval (FRI) system, which typically burns with high-intensity crown 

fires. Although it covers only perhaps 10% of the state of California, and smaller areas in neighboring states, its 

importance in terms of fire management is disproportionately large, primarily because it occurs in the 

wildland-urban interface through much of its range. Historic fire regimes for chaparral are not well-documented, 

partly due to lack of dendrochronological information, but it appears that infrequent large fires with FRI of 

50-100+ years dominated. While there are concerns over effects of fire suppression on chaparral fire regimes, 

there is little evidence of changes in area burned per year or size of large fires over this century. There have 

been increases in ignitions and in the number of smaller fires, but these fires represent a very small proportion of 

the burned area. Fires in chaparral seem to have always burned the largest areas under severe fire weather 

conditions (major heat waves or high winds). Patterns of fuel development and evidence on the effectiveness of 

age-class boundaries at stopping fires suggest that, while fire in young stands is more amenable to control than 

that in older stands, chaparral of all ages will burn under severe conditions. We recommend a two-part strategy 

of: 1) establishment of strategically placed dynamic fuel management zones in wildland areas to provide access 

and opportunities for fire control, and; 2) intensive fire risk management zones (managed and developed 

cooperatively with local agencies and landowners) to protect values in the wildland-urban interface. 

Date 1998 

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Proceedings Title Proceedings Fire In Ecosystem Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Suppression to Prescription 

Conference Name Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference 20th Proceedings Fire In Ecosystem Management: Shifting the Paradigm 

from Suppression to Prescription, Boise, Idaho, May 7–10, 1996 

Place Tallahassee, Florida 

Publisher Tall Timbers Research, Inc. 

Pages 342-350 

ISBN 0082-1527 

Short Title Management of fire regime, fuels, and fire effects in southern California chaparral 

URL http://ddr.nal.usda.gov/handle/10113/34404 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Conard, Susan G., and David R. Weise. 1998. Management of fire regime, fuels, and fire effects in southern California chaparral: 

lessons from the past and thoughts for the future. Pages 342-350 in Teresa L. Pruden and Leonard A. Brennan (eds.). Fire in 

ecosystem management: shifting the paradigm from suppression to prescription. Tall Timbers Fire 

Managing fire-prone forests in the western United States 


Author Reed F. Noss 



Author Tania Schoennagel 

Author Peter B. Moyle 

Abstract The management of fire-prone forests is one of the most controversial natural resource issues in the US today, 

particularly in the west of the country. Although vegetation and wildlife in these forests are adapted to fire, the 

historical range of fire frequency and severity was huge. When fire regimes are altered by human activity, major 

effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function are unavoidable. We review the ecological science relevant to 

developing and implementing fire and fuel management policies for forests before, during, and after wildfires. 

Fire exclusion led to major deviations from historical variability in many dry, low-elevation forests, but not in 

other forests, such as those characterized by high severity fires recurring at intervals longer than the period of 

active fire exclusion. Restoration and management of fire-prone forests should be precautionary, allow or mimic 

natural fire regimes as much as possible, and generally avoid intensive practices such as post-fire logging and 

planting. 


Volume 4 

Issue 9 

Pages 481–487 



DOI 10.1890/1540-9295(2006)4[481:MFFITW]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1540-9295 




Managing for multiple resources under climate change: National forests 


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Author Linda A. Joyce 

Author Geoffrey M. Blate 

Author Steven G. McNulty 


Author Susanne Moser 


Author David L. White 

Abstract This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest 

Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of 

information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate 

change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. 

Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link 

adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity 

to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management 

adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the 

inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National 

Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would 

include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current 

ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate 

change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of 

existing stressors represents an important “no regrets” strategy. These management opportunities will require 

agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation 

options. 


Volume 44 

Issue 6 

Pages 1022–1032 



DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9324-6 

ISSN 0364-152X 

Short Title Managing for multiple resources under climate change 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/b5715tl4840506n5/ 

Extra Keywords: resilience; resistance; anticipatory management; planning; assessments; adaptation. 



Mapping eastern North American vegetation change of the past 18 ka: No-analogs and the future 



Author Robert S. Webb 


Abstract The method of modern analogs and an extensive data base of modern and fossil pollen data were used to 

generate a new series of paleovegetation maps for eastern North America spanning the past 18 ka. The maps 

illustrate the continuous nature of climate-induced vegetation change and the development, after about 10 ka, of 

modern regional vegetation patterns. Before the Holocene, vegetation biomes without modern analogs were 

widespread in response to climate conditions without modern analogs and, to a lesser extent, to the rapidity of 

climate change over the last glacial-interglacial transition. This geological perspective suggests that possible 

future climate changes could force similarly complex changes in natural vegetation, including the development 

of biomes without modern analogs. 


Volume 20 

Issue 12 

Pages 1071–1074 

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DOI 10.1130/0091-7613(1992)0202.3.CO;2 

ISSN 1943-2682 

Short Title Mapping eastern North American vegetation change of the past 18 ka 

URL http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/20/12/1071 



Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios 


Author Earl Saxon 

Author Barry Baker 

Author William Hargrove 

Author Forrest Hoffman 

Author Chris Zganjar 

Abstract All global circulation models based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios project 

profound changes, but there is no consensus on how to map their environmental consequences. Our multivariate 

representation of environmental space combines stable topographic and edaphic attributes with dynamic 

climatic attributes. We divide that environmental space into 500 unique domains and map their current locations 

and their projected locations in 2100 under contrasting emissions scenarios. The environmental domains found 

across half the study area today disappear under the higher emissions scenario, but persist somewhere in it 

under the lower emissions scenario. Locations affected least and those affected most under each scenario are 

mapped. This provides an explicit framework for designing conservation networks to include both areas at least 

risk (potential refugia) and areas at greatest risk, where novel communities may form and where sentinel 

ecosystems can be monitored for signs of stress. 

Publication Ecology Letters 

Volume 8 

Issue 1 

Pages 53–60 


Journal Abbr Ecol. Lett. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00694.x 

ISSN 1461-0248 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00694.x/abstract 

Extra Keywords: biodiversity conservation; climate change; domains;mecoregions; mapping; multivariate cluster 

analysis; scenarios. 



Mapping fire regimes across time and space: Understanding coarse and fine-scale fire patterns 






Author Donald G. Long 

Abstract Maps of fire frequency, severity, size, and pattern are useful for strategically planning fire and natural resource 

management, assessing risk and ecological conditions, illustrating change in disturbance regimes through time, 

identifying knowledge gaps, and learning how climate, topography, vegetation, and land use influence fire 

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regimes. We review and compare alternative data sources and approaches for mapping fire regimes at national, 

regional, and local spatial scales. Fire regimes, defined here as the nature of fires occurring over an extended 

period of time, are closely related to local site productivity and topography, but climate variability entrains fire 

regimes at regional to national scales. In response to fire exclusion policies, land use, and invasion of exotic 

plants over the last century, fire regimes have changed greatly, especially in dry forests, woodlands, and 

grasslands. Comparing among and within geographic regions, and across time, is a powerful way to understand 

the factors determining and constraining fire patterns. Assembling spatial databases of fire information using 

consistent protocols and standards will aid comparison between studies, and speed and strengthen analyses. 

Combining multiple types of data will increase the power and reliability of interpretations. Testing hypotheses 

about relationships between fire, climate, vegetation, land use, and topography will help to identify what 

determines fire regimes at multiple scales. 


Volume 10 

Issue 4 

Pages 329-342 



DOI 10.1071/WF01032 

ISSN 1049-8001 

Short Title Mapping fire regimes across time and space 




Mapping fuels and fire regimes using remote sensing, ecosystem simulation, and gradient modeling 




Author Russell A. Parsons 

Abstract Maps of fuels and fire regimes are essential for understanding ecological relationships between wildland fire and 

landscape structure, composition, and function, and for managing wildland fire hazard and risk with an 

ecosystem perspective. While critical for successful wildland fire management, there are no standard methods 

for creating these maps, and spatial data representing these important characteristics of wildland fire are lacking 

in many areas. We present an integrated approach for mapping fuels and fire regimes using extensive field 

sampling, remote sensing, ecosystem simulation, and biophysical gradient modeling to create predictive 

landscape maps of fuels and fire regimes. A main objective was to develop a standardized, repeatable system for 

creating these maps using spatial data describing important landscape gradients along with straightforward 

statistical methods. We developed a hierarchical approach to stratifying field sampling to ensure that samples 

represented variability in a wide variety of ecosystem processes. We used existing and derived spatial layers to 

develop a modeling database within a Geographic Information System that included 38 mapped variables 

describing gradients of physiography, spectral characteristics, weather, and biogeochemical cycles for a 

5830-km2 study area in northwestern Montana. Using general linear models, discriminant analysis, classification 

and regression trees, and logistic regression, we created maps of fuel load, fuel model, fire interval, and fire 

severity based on spatial predictive variables and response variables measured in the field. Independently 

evaluated accuracies ranged from 51 to 80%. Direct gradient modeling improved map accuracy significantly 

compared to maps based solely on indirect gradients. By focusing efforts on direct as opposed to indirect 

gradient modeling, our approach is easily adaptable to mapping potential future conditions under a range of 

possible management actions or climate scenarios. Our methods are an example of a standard yet flexible 

approach for mapping fuels and fire regimes over broad areas and at multiple scales. The resulting maps provide 

fine-grained, broad-scale information to spatially assess both ecosystem integrity and the hazards and risks of 

wildland fire when making decisions about how best to restore forests of the western United States to within 

historical ranges and variability. 


Volume 14 

Issue 1 

Pages 75-95 

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DOI 10.1890/02-5145 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem simulation; fire ecology; fire regimes; fuels; Geographic Information Systems; gradient 

modeling; predictive mapping; remote sensing. 



Mapping historic fire regimes for the western United States: Integrating remote sensing and biophysical 

data 




Author Donald G. Long 

Author James K. Brown 


Abstract We have developed a spatial database of historic natural fire regimes for the eleven western States to provide 

information in support of expected national increases in prescribed burning. Fire regimes are described in terms 

both of frequency and severity, and we have classified five distinct lire regimes:


Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Bethesda, Maryland. P. 288-300. 

Marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the Paleogene 


Author Mark Pagani 

Author James C. Zachos 

Author Katherine H. Freeman 

Author Brett Tipple 

Author Stephen Bohaty 

Abstract The relation between the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (ρCO₂) and Paleogene climate is poorly 

resolved. We used stable carbon isotopic values of di-unsaturated alkenones extracted from deep sea cores to 

reconstruct ρCO₂ fromthe middle Eocene to the late Oligocene (∼45 to 25 million years ago). Our results 

demonstrate that ρCO₂ ranged between 1000 to 1500 parts per million by volume in the middle to late Eocene, 

then decreased in several steps during the Oligocene, and reached modern levels by the latest Oligocene. The 

fall in ρCO₂ likely allowed for a critical expansion of ice sheets on Antarctica and promoted conditions that 

forced the onset of terrestrial C₄ photosynthesis. 


Volume 309 

Issue 5734 

Pages 600-603 



DOI 10.1126/science.1110063 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Medieval Climate Anomaly 


Editor Elena Xoplaki 

Editor Dominik Fleitmann 

Editor Henry Diaz 

Editor Lucien von Gunten 

Editor Thorsten Kiefer 

Abstract This newsletter issue compiles the latest information on climate and impacts during the Medieval Climate 

Anomaly (MCA) at global and regional scales. It also provides information on recently held meetings and 

upcoming events. 


Volume 19 

Issue 1 

Pages 2-40 



ISSN 1811-1602 

URL http://www.pages-igbp.org/products/2011-03-28-16-23-06/249-pages-news-vol-19-no-1 



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Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern 

United States 




Author Stephen N. Matthews 

Author Matthew P. Peters 

Abstract Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better 

understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing 

decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern 

United States (http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas).To help interpret and add value to these outputs, we assigned and 

calculated Modification Factors for disturbance and biological factors that cannot be specifically assessed with 

the empirical RandomForest approach. We also use a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate 

colonization potentials, based on the abundance of the species, the distances between occupied and unoccupied 

cells and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we are estimating 

potential impacts that can be used to aid in management decisions under climate change. These tools are 

demonstrated for one species, black oak (Quercus velutina), in northern Wisconsin. 

Date 2010 

Proceedings Title Forest landscapes and global change: New frontiers in management, conservation and restoration: Proceedings 

Conference Name The IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference: Forest Landscapes and Global 

Change - New frontiers in management, conservation and restoration, September 21-27, 2010. Bragança, 

Portugal 

Place Bragança, Portugal 

Publisher Institute of Politecnico de Braganca Portugal 

Pages 135-140 

ISBN 978-972-745-110-4 


Archive http://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/handle/10198/2692 

Loc. in Archive http://www.ipb.pt/iufro2010/ 

Extra Keywords: climate change; randomforest; species distribution modeling; eastern United States; trees. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P. 2010. Merger of three modeling approaches to 

assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern United States. In: Azevedo, Joao Carlos; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, 

Jose; Pinto, Maria Alice, eds. Forest landscapes and global change-new frontiers in management, conservation and restoration. 

Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference; 2010 September 21-27; Bragança, Portugal: 

135-140. 

Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American 

Southwest 




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Abstract Ecological responses to climatic variability in the Southwest include regionally synchronized fires, insect 

outbreaks, and pulses in tree demography (births and deaths). Multicentury, tree-ring reconstructions of drought, 

disturbance history, and tree demography reveal climatic effects across scales, from annual to decadal, and from 

local (


settlement. Highlights ► I analyzed aspen establishment data from 12 studies in the central Rocky Mountains. 

► Aspen across the region had two periods of high establishment since the mid-1800s. ► A late-1800s pulse in 

establishment coincided with Euro-American settlement. ► A 1970–1980 pulse in establishment coincided with 

a regional shift in climate. ► Aspen population dynamics are the legacy of local and broad-scale influences. 


Volume 262 

Issue 3 

Pages 389-397 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.04.003 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: meta-analysis; population dynamics; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; 

climate; fire. 



Model of transient changes in Arctic and boreal vegetation in response to climate and land use change 


Author Anthony M. Starfield 

Author F. Stuart Chapín III 

Abstract One of the greatest challenges in global-change research is to predict the future distribution of vegetation. Most 

models of vegetation change predict either the response of a patch of present vegetation to climatic change or 

the future equilibrium distribution of vegetation based on the present relationship between climate and 

vegetation. Here we present a model that is, to our knowledge, the first model of ecosystem change in response 

to transient changes in climate, disturbance regime, and recruitment over the next 50-500 yr. The frame-based 

model uses quantitative and qualitative variables to develop scenarios of vegetation change from arctic tundra 

to boreal forest in response to global changes in climate (as predicted by general circulation models [GCMs]), 

fire, and land use. Seed availability, tree growth rate, and probability of fire were the model parameters that 

most strongly influenced the balance between tundra and boreal forest in transitional climates. The rate of 

climatic warming strongly affected the time lag between the onset of climate change and the simulated 

ecosystem response but had relatively little effect on the rate or pattern of ecosystem change. The model 

calculated that, with a gradual ramped change of $3^\circ C$ in the next century (corresponding to average rate 

of warming predicted by GCMs), any change from tundra to forest would take 150 yr, consistent with pollen 

records. The model suggested that tundra would first be invaded by conifer forests, but that the proportion of 

broad-leaved deciduous forest would increase, reflecting increased fire frequency, as climatic warming 

continued. The change in fire frequency was determined more strongly by climatically driven changes in 

vegetation than by direct climatic effects on fire probability. The pattern of climatic warming was more 

important than the rate of warming or change in precipitation in determining the rate of conversion from tundra 

to forest. Increased climatic variability promoted ecosystem change, particularly when oscillations were long 

relative to the time required for tree maturation. Management policies related to logging and moose-predator 

control affected vegetation as much or more than did changes in climate and must be included in future 

scenarios of global changes in ecosystem distribution. We suggest that frame-based models provide a critical 

link between patch and equilibrium models in predicting ecosystem change in response to transient changes in 

climate over the coming decades to centuries. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 842–864 



DOI doi:10.2307/2269489 

ISSN 1051-0761 


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Extra Keywords: arctic; boreal forest; climatic change; fire; insects; model; transient dynamics; tree line. 



Modeling interactive effects of climate change, air pollution, and fire on a California shrubland 


Author George P. Malanson 

Author Walter E. Westman 

Abstract A computer simulation model (FINICS) was used to project the interactive effects of CO₂-induced climate 

change on a drought-deciduous shrubland. FINICS simulates the competitive relations of five dominant shrub 

species of Californian coastal sage scrub, based on their aboveground growth and reproductive behavior. The 

model was used to simulate the separate and combined effects of altered precipitation, temperature, ambient 

ozone levels, and fuel loads and fire intensity, on species composition. Both growth chamber and field data were 

used to parameterize the model. Projections show that changes attributed to climate variation alone were 

markedly accentuated when the indirect effects of climate change on fire intensity and ozone pollution were 

considered. Model results emphasized that change in community composition will result from shifting 

competitive abilities of individual species under the changed environmental conditions. While neither all of the 

secondary effects of climate change nor all possible species were included in the model, the projections suggest 

that inclusion of secondary interactions and species competition will be important in predicting vegetation 

change realistically. 


Volume 18 

Issue 4 

Pages 363–376 



DOI 10.1007/BF00142967 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/mj2qn16m38106501/ 



Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a 

climate change scenario: A case study with Pinus virginiana 





Abstract We are using a deterministic regression tree analysis model (DISTRIB) and a stochastic migration model 

(SHIFT) to examine potential distributions of ~66 individual species of eastern US trees under a 2× CO₂ climate 

change scenario. This process is demonstrated for Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana). USDA Forest Service Forest 

Inventory and Analysis data for more than 100 000 plots and nearly 3 million trees east of the 100th meridian 

were analyzed and aggregated to the county level to provide species importance values for each of more than 

2100 counties. County-level data also were compiled on climate, soils, land use, elevation, and spatial pattern. 

Regression tree analysis (RTA) was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment 

relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential future 

distributions under two scenarios of climate change (2× CO₂). RTA allows different variables to control 

importance value predictions at different regions, e.g. at the northern versus southern range limits of a species. 

RTA outputs represent the potential ‘environmental envelope’ shifts required by species, while the migration 

model predicts the more realistic shifts based on colonization probabilities from varying species abundances 

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within a fragmented landscape. The model shows severely limited migration in regions of high forest 

fragmentation, particularly when the species is low in abundance near the range boundary. These tools are 

providing mechanisms for evaluating the relationships among various environmental and landscape factors 

associated with tree-species importance and potential migration in a changing global climate. 


Volume 115 

Issue 1 

Pages 77–93 



DOI 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00200-2 

ISSN 0304-3800 

Short Title Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate 

change scenario 



Extra Keywords: climate change; GIS; landscape ecology; species distribution; migration; regression tree analysis; 

FIA; model. 



Modeling the impact of black spruce on the fire regime of Alaskan boreal forest 



Author Anthony M. Starfield 


Author Paul Duffy 

Abstract In the boreal biome, fire is the major disturbance agent affecting ecosystem change, and fire dynamics will likely 

change in response to climatic warming. We modified a spatially explicit model of Alaskan subarctic treeline 

dynamics (ALFRESCO) to simulate boreal vegetation dynamics in interior Alaska. The model is used to 

investigate the role of black spruce ecosystems in the fire regime of interior Alaska boreal forest. Model 

simulations revealed that vegetation shifts caused substantial changes to the fire regime. The number of fires 

and the total area burned increased as black spruce forest became an increasingly dominant component of the 

landscape. The most significant impact of adding black spruce to the model was an increase in the frequency 

and magnitude of largescale burning events (i.e., time steps in which total area burned far exceeded the normal 

distribution of area burned). Early successional deciduous forest vegetation burned more frequently when black 

spruce was added to the model, considerably decreasing the fire return interval of deciduous vegetation. 

Ecosystem flammability accounted for the majority of the differences in the distribution of the average area 

burned. These simulated vegetation effects and fire regime dynamics have important implications for global 

models of vegetation dynamics and potential biotic feedbacks to regional climate. 


Volume 55 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 213–233 



DOI 10.1023/A:1020247405652 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/q1v45772p834413p/ 



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Modelling long-term fire regimes of southern California shrublands 


Author Seth H. Peterson 


Author Marco E. Morais 

Author Philip E. Dennison 

Author Jean M. Carlson 

Abstract This paper explores the environmental factors that drive the southern California chaparral fire regime. 

Specifically, we examined the response of three fire regime metrics (fire size distributions, fire return interval 

maps, cumulative total area burned) to variations in the number of ignitions, the spatial pattern of ignitions, the 

number of Santa Ana wind events, and live fuel moisture, using the HFire fire spread model. HFire is 

computationally efficient and capable of simulating the spatiotemporal progression of individual fires on a 

landscape and aggregating results for fully resolved individual fires over hundreds or thousands of years to 

predict long-term fire regimes. A quantitative understanding of the long-term drivers of a fire regime is of use in 

fire management and policy. 


Volume 20 

Issue 1 

Pages 1-16 



DOI 10.1071/WF09102 

ISSN 1049-8001 




Models, data and mechanisms: Quantifying wildfire regimes 


Author James D. A. Millington 

Author George L. W. Perry 

Author Bruce D. Malamud 

Abstract The quantification of wildfire regimes, especially the relationship between the frequency with which events 

occur and their size, is of particular interest to both ecologists and wildfire managers. Recent studies in cellular 

automata (CA) and the fractal nature of the frequency-area relationship they produce has led some authors to 

ask whether the power-law frequency-area statistics seen in the CA might also be present in empirical wildfire 

data. Here, we outline the history of the debate regarding the statistical wildfire frequency-area models 

suggested by the CA and their confrontation with empirical data. In particular, the extent to which the utility of 

these approaches is dependent on being placed in the context of self-organized criticality (SOC) is examined. 

We also consider some of the other heavy-tailed statistical distributions used to describe these data. Taking a 

broadly ecological perspective we suggest that this debate needs to take more interest in the mechanisms 

underlying the observed power-law (or other) statistics. From this perspective, future studies utilizing the 

techniques associated with CA and statistical physics will be better able to contribute to the understanding of 

ecological processes and systems. 

Publication Geological Society, London, Special Publications 

Volume 261 

Issue 9 

Pages 155-167 

Date 2006 

Journal Abbr Geol. Soc. London, Special Publications 

DOI 10.1144/GSL.SP.2006.261.01.12 

ISSN 0305-8719 

404 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Short Title Models, data and mechanisms 

URL http://sp.lyellcollection.org/cgi/doi/10.1144/GSL.SP.2006.261.01.12 



More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century 



Author Claudia Tebaldi 

Abstract A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat 

waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago 

in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, 

and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat 

waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is 

intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in 

those regions in the future. 


Volume 305 

Issue 5686 

Pages 994-997 



DOI 10.1126/science.1098704 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Multi-century variability in the Pacific North American circulation pattern reconstructed from tree rings 


Author Valerie Trouet 


Abstract We here present a reconstruction (1725–1999) of the winter Pacific North American (PNA) pattern based on 

three winter climate sensitive tree ring records from the western USA. Positive PNA phases in our record are 

associated with warm phases of ENSO and PDO and the reorganization of the PNA pattern towards a positive 

mode is strongest when ENSO and PDO are in phase. Regime shifts in our PNA record correspond to climatic 

shifts in other proxies of Pacific climate variability, including two well-documented shifts in the instrumental 

period (1976 and 1923). The correspondence breaks down in the early 19th century, when our record shows a 

prolonged period of positive PNA, with a peak in 1800–1820. This period corresponds to a period of low solar 

activity (Dalton Minimum), suggesting a ‘positive PNA like’ response to decreased solar irradiance. The distinct 

30-year periodicity that dominates the PNA reconstruction in the 18th century and again from 1875 onwards is 

disrupted during this period. 


Volume 35 

Issue 6 

Pages 953-963 



DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0605-9 

ISSN 0930-7575 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/e75534pk11177237/ 

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Extra Keywords: Pacific North American; PNA; PDO; ENSO; reconstruction; tree ring. 



Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk—eastern Australia 


Author Danielle C. Verdon 

Author Anthony S. Kiem 

Author Stewart W. Franks 

Abstract This study investigates the influence that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific 

Oscillation (IPO) have on long term daily weather conditions pertinent to high forest fire danger in New South 

Wales, Australia. Using historical meteorological data for 22 weather stations to compute the daily value of 

McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), it is shown that a strong relationship exists between climate 

variability, on a range of time scales, and forest fire risk. An investigation into the influence of ENSO on fire risk 

demonstrates that the proportion of days with a high, or greater than high, fire danger rating is markedly 

increased during El Niño episodes. More importantly, this study also shows that the already significantly 

enhanced fire danger associated with El Niño events was even further increased during El Niño events that 

occurred when the IPO was negative. The potential to use simple indices of climate variability to predict forest 

fire risk is therefore demonstrated to be significant. 


Volume 13 

Issue 2 

Pages 165-171 



DOI 10.1071/WF03034 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation (PDO); bushfire; climate variability. 



Multiproxy evidence from caves of Native Americans altering the overlying landscape during the late 

Holocene of east-central North America 


Author G. S. Springer 

Author D. M. White 

Author H. D. Rowe 

Author B. Hardt 

Author L. Nivanthi Mihimdukulasooriya 

Author Hai Cheng 

Author R. L. Edwards 


Volume 20 

Issue 2 

Pages 275-283 

Date 11/2009 

Journal Abbr The Holocene 

DOI 10.1177/0959683609350395 

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ISSN 0959-6836 





Multiproxy evidence from caves of Native Americans altering the overlying landscape during the late 

Holocene of east-central North America 


Author Gregory S. Springer 

Author D. Matthew White 

Author Harold D. Rowe 

Author Ben Hardt 

Author L. Nivanthi Mihimdukulasooriya 

Author Hai Cheng 

Author R. Lawrence Edwards 

Abstract We compare environmental changes recorded in stalagmites and alluvium from the mountainous Buckeye Creek 

basin of West Virginia, USA to a nearby, independent archaeological record of Native American presences in 

the forested watershed. A climatic record constructed from stable isotopic (δ¹⁸Ocalc and δ¹³Ccalc) and trace 

metal (Sr/Ca) ratios in stalagmitic calcite is consistent with regional palynology during much of the Holocene. 

The stalagmite δ¹³Ccalc and Sr/Ca values track aridity associated with North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) ice-rafting 

events during solar minima. However, the δ¹³Ccalc record diverges sharply from the Sr/Ca record at ~2100 

(calendar) years BP, which maintains the same relationship with ice rafting in the NAO. A dramatic and 

sustained enrichment in δ¹³Ccalc values (>1‰) without a corresponding shift in Sr/Ca values, suggests a 

systemic change in above-cave vegetation and soil carbon. This hypothesis is corroborated by a record of the 

stable isotopic composition of bulk organic carbon (δ¹³Corg) in alluvial silts. Cultural artefacts record Native 

American presences in the watershed during the late Holocene and archaeologists place peak Native American 

presence as having occurred between 750 and 550 years BP, nearly contemporaneous with peaks in δ¹³Ccalc, 

δ¹³Corg, and relative charcoal abundances documented herein. Notably, values of the three environmental 

proxies decrease after Native Americans abandoned the watershed. The available evidence is consistent with 

Native Americans having made significant changes to the area’s ecosystem and soils prior to the arrival of 

Euro-colonial peoples at ~225 years BP. Our findings highlight the active roles native peoples had in shaping the 

North American “wilderness” described prior to its destruction by early European settlers. 


Volume 20 

Issue 2 

Pages 275-283 



DOI 10.1177/0959683609350395 

ISSN 0959-6836 


Extra Keywords: Native American; archaeology; isotopic geochemistry; stalagmite; land use; cave. 



Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes: new insights from fire-scar networks (Reviews) 




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Author Calvin Farris 





Author Megan L. Van Horne 

Abstract Anticipating future forest-fire regimes under changing climate requires that scientists and natural resource 

managers understand the factors that control fire across space and time. Fire scars – proxy records of fires, 

formed in the growth rings of long-lived trees – provide an annually accurate window into past low-severity fire 

regimes. In western North America, networks of the fire-scar records spanning centuries to millennia now 

include hundreds to thousands of trees sampled across hundreds to many thousands of hectares. Development 

of these local and regional fire-scar networks has created a new data type for ecologists interested in landscape 

and climate regulation of ecosystem processes – which, for example, may help to explain why forest fires are 

widespread during certain years but not others. These data also offer crucial reference information on fire as a 

dynamic landscape process for use in ecosystem management, especially when managing for forest structure 

and resilience to climate change. 


Volume e-view 

Pages 13 p. 



DOI 10.1890/100052 

ISSN 1540-9295 

Short Title Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes 




Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century, northern Rockies, USA 




Author Carly E. Gibson 

Abstract We inferred climate drivers of 20th-century years with regionally synchronous forest fires in the U.S. northern 

Rockies. We derived annual fire extent from an existing fire atlas that includes 5038 fire polygons recorded 

from 12 070 086 ha, or 71% of the forested land in Idaho and Montana west of the Continental Divide. The 11 

regional-fire years, those exceeding the 90th percentile in annual fire extent from 1900 to 2003 (>102 314 ha or 

~1% of the fire atlas recording area), were concentrated early and late in the century (six from 1900 to 1934 

and five from 1988 to 2003). During both periods, regional-fire years were ones when warm springs were 

followed by warm, dry summers and also when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive. Spring 

snowpack was likely reduced during warm springs and when PDO was positive, resulting in longer fire seasons. 

Regional-fire years did not vary with El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or with climate in antecedent years. 

The long mid-20th century period lacking regional-fire years (1935–1987) had generally cool springs, generally 

negative PDO, and a lack of extremely dry summers; also, this was a period of active fire suppression. The 

climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire that we inferred are congruent with those of previous centuries in 

this region, suggesting a strong influence of spring and summer climate on fire activity throughout the 20th 

century despite major land-use change and fire suppression efforts. The relatively cool, moist climate during the 

mid-century gap in regional-fire years likely contributed to the success of fire suppression during that period. In 

every regional-fire year, fires burned across a range of vegetation types. Given our results and the projections 

for warmer springs and continued warm, dry summers, forests of the U.S. northern Rockies are likely to 

experience synchronous, large fires in the future. 


Volume 89 

Issue 3 

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Pages 717–728 



DOI 10.1890/06-2049.1 

ISSN 0012-9658 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/06-2049.1 

Extra Keywords: climate variability; digital polygon fire history; ENSO; fire atlas; Idaho; Montana; PDO; 

precipitation; season; temperature. 



Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies, USA 




Author James P. Riser II 

Abstract Our objective was to infer the climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire years in dry forests of the U.S. 

northern Rockies in Idaho and western Montana. During our analysis period (1650–1900), we reconstructed 

fires from 9245 fire scars on 576 trees (mostly ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) at 21 sites and 

compared them to existing tree-ring reconstructions of climate (temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity 

Index [PDSI]) and large-scale climate patterns that affect modern spring climate in this region (El Ninõ– 

Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]). We identified 32 regional-fire years as 

those with five or more sites with fire. Fires were remarkably widespread during such years, including one year 

(1748) in which fires were recorded at 10 sites across what are today seven national forests plus one site on 

state land. During regional-fire years, spring–summers were significantly warm and summers were significantly 

warm-dry whereas the opposite conditions prevailed during the 99 years when no fires were recorded at any of 

our sites (no-fire years). Climate in prior years was not significantly associated with regional- or no-fire years. 

Years when fire was recorded at only a few of our sites occurred under a broad range of climate conditions, 

highlighting the fact that the regional climate drivers of fire are most evident when fires are synchronized across 

a large area. No-fire years tended to occur during La Ninã years, which tend to have anomalously deep 

snowpacks in this region. However, ENSO was not a significant driver of regional-fire years, consistent with the 

greater influence of La Ninã than El Ninõ conditions on the spring climate of this region. PDO was not a 

significant driver of past fire, despite being a strong driver of modern spring climate and modern regional-fire 

years in the northern Rockies. 


Volume 89 

Issue 3 

Pages 705–716 



DOI 10.1890/06-2047.1 

ISSN 0012-9658 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/06-2047.1 

Extra Keywords: dendrochronology; El Ninõ–Southern Oscillation; fire history; fire scars; Idaho; Montana; Pacific 

Decadal Oscillation; Palmer Drought Severity Index; spring; summer; temperature. 



National hierarchical framework of ecological units 



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Notes: 

Citation: 

Author Peter E. Avers 

Author W. Henry McNab 

Author Mark E. Jensen 


Author Thomas King 

Author Walter E. Russell 

Abstract INTRODUCTION: To implement ecosystem management, we need basic information about the nature and 

distribution of ecosystems. To develop this information, we need working definitions of ecosystems and 

supporting inventories of the components that comprise ecosystems. We also need to understand ecological 

patterns and processes and the interrelationships of social, physical, and biological systems. To meet these 

needs, we must obtain better information about the distribution and interaction of organisms and the 

environments in which they occur, including the demographics of species, the development and succession of 

communities, and the effects of humans activities and land use on species and ecosystems (Urban et al. 1987). 

Research has a critical role in obtaining this information. This chapter presents a brief background of regional 

land classifications, describes the hierarchical framework for ecological unit design, examines underlying 

principles, and shows how the framework can be used in resource planning and management. The basic 

objective of the hierarchical framework is to provide a systematic method for classifying and mapping areas of 

the earth based on associations of ecological factors at different geographic scales. The framework is needed to 

improve our efforts in national, regional, and forest level planning; to achieve consistency in ecosystem 

management across National Forests and regions; to advance our understanding of the nature and distribution of 

ecosystems; and to facilitate interagency data sharing and planning. Furthermore, this framework will help us 

evaluate inherent capabilities of land and water resources and the effects of management on them. Ecological 

units delimit areas of different biological and physical potentials. Ecological unit maps can be coupled with 

inventories of existing vegetation, air quality, aquatic systems, wildlife, and human elements to characterize 

complexes of life and environment, or ecosystems. This information on ecosystems can be combined with our 

knowledge of various processes to facilitate a more ecologically sound approach to resource planning, 

management, and research. Note that ecological classification and mapping systems are devised by humans to 

meet human needs and values. Ecosystems and their various components often change gradually, forming 

continua on the earth's surface which cross administrative and political boundaries. Based on their 

understanding of ecological systems, humans decide on ecosystems boundaries by using physical, biological, 

and social considerations. We recognize that the exact boundaries for each level envisioned in this process and 

developed in map format may not fit every analysis and management need. Developing boundaries of areas for 

analysis, however, will not change the boundaries of ecological units. In some cases, an ecological unit may be 

the analysis area. In other cases, watersheds, existing conditions, management emphasis, proximity to special 

features (for example natural, wilderness, or urban areas), or other conditions may define an analysis area. In 

these cases, ecological units can be aggregated or divided if necessary to focus on relevant issues and concerns. 

Book Title Ecosystem Management: Applications for Sustainable Forest and Wildlife Resources 


Place New Haven, CT 

Publisher Yale University Press 

Date 1997 

Pages 181–200 

ISBN 9780300078589 

URL http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/gla/reports/hierarchy.htm 

Extra Book: http://yalepress.yale.edu/yupbooks/book.asp?isbn=9780300078589 



Cleland, D.T.; Avers, P.E.; McNab, W.H.; Jensen, M.E.; Bailey, R.G., King, T.; Russell, W.E. 1997. National Hierarchical Framework 

of Ecological Units. Published in, Boyce, M. S.; Haney, A., ed. 1997. Ecosystem Management Applications for Sustainable Forest and 

Wildlife Resources. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. pp. 181-200. 

Native American impacts on fire regimes of the California coastal ranges 

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Abstract • Aim: Native American burning impacts on California shrubland dominated landscapes are evaluated relative to 

the natural lightning fire potential for affecting landscape patterns. • Location: Focus was on the coastal ranges 

of central and southern California. • Methods: Potential patterns of Indian burning were evaluated based upon 

historical documents, ethnographic accounts, archaeological records and consideration of contemporary land 

management tactics. Patterns of vegetation distribution in this region were evaluated relative to environmental 

factors and the resilience of the dominant shrub vegetation to different fire frequencies. • Results: Lightning fire 

frequency in this region is one of the lowest in North America and the density of pre-Columbian populations 

was one of the highest. Shrublands dominate the landscape throughout most of the region. These woody 

communities have weak resilience to high fire frequency and are readily displaced by annual grasses and forbs 

under high fire frequency. Intact shrublands provided limited resources for native Americans and thus there was 

ample motivation for using fire to degrade this vegetation to an open mosaic of shrubland/grassland, not unlike 

the agropastoral modification of ecologically related shrublands by Holocene peoples in the Mediterranean 

Basin. Alien-dominated grasslands currently cover approximately one-quarter of the landscape and less than 1% 

of these grasslands have a significant native grass presence. Ecological studies in the Californian coastal ranges 

have failed to uncover any clear soil or climate factors explaining grassland and shrubland distribution patterns. 

• Main conclusions: Coastal ranges of California were regions of high Indian density and low frequency of 

lightning fires. The natural vegetation dominants on this landscape are shrubland vegetation that often form 

dense impenetrable stands with limited resources for Native Americans. Natural fire frequencies are not high 

enough to maintain these landscapes in habitable mixtures of shrublands and grasslands but such landscape 

mosaics are readily produced with additional human subsidy of ignitions. It is hypothesized that a substantial 

fraction of the landscape was type converted from shrubland to grassland and much of the landscape that 

underwent such type conversion has either been maintained by Euro-American land management practices or 

resisted recolonization of native shrublands. It appears that these patterns are disturbance dependent and result 

from anthropogenic alteration of landscapes initiated by Native Americans and sustained and expanded upon by 

Euro-American settlers. 


Volume 29 

Issue 3 

Pages 303–320 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00676.x 

ISSN 0305-0270 


Extra Keywords: burning; fire; Indians; chaparral; coastal sage scrub; lightning; landscape history; Native Americans; 

type conversion. 



Native American land-use practices and ecological impacts (Chapter 9) 


Author M. Kat Anderson 

Author Michael J. Moratto 

Abstract During a span of 10,000 years or more, Native Americans in the Nevada were sustained by hunting and fishing, 

gathering, lithic quarrying, and trading. To meet their requirements for firewood, fish and game, vegetal foods, 

craft supplies, and building materials, the native peoples of the Sierra managed biotic resources intensively, with 

significant ecological and evolutionary consequences. The distribution, structure, composition, and extent of 

certain plant communities, for example, were shaped by burning, pruning, sowing, weeding, tilling, and selective 

harvesting. Numerous “protoagricultural” techniques, based upon traditional knowledge of natural processes 

gained over the millennia, were applied to increase the quantity and improve select qualities of focal plant 

species. Fire was the most important management tool, employed to clear brush, maintain grasslands and 

meadows, improve browse for deer, enhance production of basketry and cordage materials, modify understory 

species composition in forests, and reduce fuel accumulation that might otherwise sustain intense fires. 

Considering that the human population of the Sierra Nevada was approximately 90,000–100,000 in late 

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Notes: 

prehistoric times (ca. A.D. 1300–1800), the environmental consequences fof aboriginal land-use and 

management practices were substantial. There is currently an ecological “vacuum,” or disequilibrium, in the 

Sierra resulting from the departure of Native American influences. The recent decline in biotic diversity, species 

extirpation and endangerment, human encroachment into fire-type plant communities (e.g., chaparral), and 

greatly increased risk of catastrophic fires are but symptoms of this disequilibrium. It is recommended, 

therefore, that land-managing agencies and land-use planners incorporate Native American traditional 

knowledge into future policies andprograms for ecosystem management in the Sierra Nevada. This traditional 

knowledge, which permitted the adaptive success of large human populations and the maintenance of Sierran 

environments for more than a hundred centuries, must not be dismissed. 

Book Title Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project 

Series Final Report to Congress 

Series Number Report No. 36 

Volume II, Assessments and Scientific Basis for Management Options 


Place Davis, CA. 

Publisher University of California, Centers for Water and Wildland Resources 

Date 1996 

Pages 187–206 

ISBN 0-607-87153-9 

URL http://ceres.ca.gov/snep/pubs/v2s2.html 



Citation: 

Anderson, M.K. and M.J. Moratto. 1996. Native American land-use practices and ecological 

impacts, Chapter 9 in: SNEP Science Team (eds.), State of the Sierra Nevada, Vol. II, 

Centers for Water and Wildland Resources, Report No. 36, University of California, 

Davis. 

Native Americans as active and passive promoters of mast and fruit trees in the eastern USA 




Abstract We reviewed literature in the fields of anthropology, archaeology, ethnobotany, palynology and ecology to try to 

determine the impacts of Native Americans as active and passive promoters of mast (nuts and acorns) and fruit 

trees prior to European settlement. Mast was a critical resource for carbohydrates and fat calories and at least 

30 tree species and genera were used in the diet of Native Americans, the most important being oak (Quercus), 

hickory (Carya) and chestnut (Castanea), which dominated much of the eastern forest, and walnut (Juglans) to a 

lesser extent. Fleshy tree fruits were most accessible in human-disturbed landscapes, and at least 20 fruit- and 

berry-producing trees were commonly utilized by Native Americans. They regularly used fire and tree girdling 

as management tools for a multitude of purposes, including land clearing, promotion of favoured mast and fruit 

trees, vegetation control and pasturage for big-game animals. This latter point also applies to the vast 

fire-maintained prairie region further west. Native Americans were a much more important ignition source than 

lightning throughout the eastern USA, except for the extreme Southeast. First-hand accounts often mention mast 

and fruit trees or orchards in the immediate vicinity of Native American villages and suggest that these trees 

existed as a direct result of Indian management, including cultivation and planting. We conclude that Native 

American land-use practices not only had a profound effect on promoting mast and fruit trees but also on the 

entire historical development of the eastern oak and pine forests, savannas and tall-grass prairies. Although 

significant climatic change occurred during the Holocene, including the `Mediaeval Warming Period' and the 

`Little Ice Age', we attribute the multimillennia domination of the eastern biome by prairie grasses, berryproducing 

shrubs and/or mast trees primarily to regular burning and other forms of management by Indians to 

meet their gastronomic needs. Otherwise, drier prairie and open woodlands would have converted to closedcanopy 

forests and more mesic mast trees would have succeeded to more shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive trees that 

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are a significantly inferior dietary resource. 


Volume 18 

Issue 7 

Pages 1123 -1137 



DOI 10.1177/0959683608095581 

ISSN 0959-6836 


Extra Keywords: Indian diet; fire; land-use history; cultivation; oak; hickory; mast; fruit trees; Holocene. 



Natural fire regime: A guide for sustainable management of the Canadian boreal forest 



Author Alain Leduc 

Author Brian D. Harvey 


Abstract The combination of certain features of fire disturbance, notably fi re frequency, size and severity, may be used 

to characterize the disturbance regime in any region of the boreal forest. As some consequences of fi re 

resemble the effects of industrial forest harvesting, conventional forest management is often considered as a 

disturbance that has effects similar to those of natural disturbances. Although the analogy between forest 

management and fire disturbance in boreal ecosystems has some merit, it is important to recognise that it also 

has its limitations. Short fire cycles generally described for boreal ecosystems do not appear to be universal; 

rather, important spatial and temporal variations have been observed in Canada. These variations in the fire 

cycle have an important influence on forest composition and structure at the landscape and regional levels. Size 

and severity of fires also show a large range of variability. In regions where the natural matrix of the boreal 

forest remains relatively intact, maintenance of this natural variability should be targeted by forest managers 

concerned with biodiversity conservation. Current forest management tends to reduce this variability: for 

example, fully regulated, even-aged management will tend to truncate the natural forest age distribution and 

eliminate over-mature and old-growth forests from the landscape. We suggest that the development of 

strategic-level forest management planning approaches and silvicultural techniques designed to maintain a 

spectrum of forest compositions and structures at different scales in the landscape is one avenue to maintain this 

variability. Although we use the boreal forest of Quebec for our examples, it is possible to apply the approach to 

those portions of the boreal forest where the fi re regime favours the development of even-aged stands in burns. 

Publication Silva Fennica 

Volume 36 

Issue 1 

Pages 81–95 

Date 2002 

Journal Abbr Silva Fenn. 

ISSN 0037-5330 

Short Title Natural fire regime 

URL http://www.metla.fi/silvafennica/abs/sa36/sa361081.htm 

Extra Keywords: natural disturbance; landscape patterns; coarse filter; harvest pattern; volume retention; historic 

variability; even-age management; biodiversity. 



NCDC: Global surface temperature anomalies 

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Type Web Page 

Author NOAA NCDC 

Website Title Temperature Anomaly 

Website Type Information and Gridded Dataset 

URL http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html 

Rights National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 



NOAA Global Statistics 

Type Web Page 

Author NOAA 

Website Title NOAA: June, April to June, and Year-to-Date Global Temperatures are Warmest on Record 

Date 2010 

URL http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100715_globalstats.html 

Rights NOAA 



NOAA: 2010 Tied for warmest year on record 

Type Web Page 

Author NOAA 

Abstract According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature 

record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century 

average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, 

resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record. 

Website Title Global Stats 

Date 2011 

URL http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html 



Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and climate change 


Author Stephen A. Montzka 

Author Edward J. Dlugokencky 


Abstract Earth’s climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon 

dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, such as 

methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also 

contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO₂ greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO₂, so 

reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear 

that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts 

in emissions of CO₂, reducing non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of 

contributing to this goal. 


Volume 476 

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Issue 7358 

Pages 43-50 



DOI 10.1038/nature10322 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Normals Product Suite: Average U.S. temperature increases by 0.5 degrees F 

Type Web Page 

Author NOAA NCDC 

Website Title Average U.S. temperature increases by 0.5 degrees F 

Website Type NOAA News - Stories 2011 

Date 2011 

URL http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110629_newnormals.html 



North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661 


Author Franco Biondi 



Abstract Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the 

twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California 

extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal 

oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary 

view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index 

features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A 

comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate 

between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947. 


Volume 14 

Issue 1 

Pages 5–10 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0442 


/1520-0442%282001%29014%3C0005%3ANPDCVS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations 

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Abstract Building on recent studies, we attempt hemispheric temperature reconstructions with proxy data networks for 

the past millennium. We focus not just on the reconstructions, but the uncertainties therein, and important 

caveats. Though expanded uncertainties prevent decisive conclusions for the period prior to AD 1400, our 

results suggest that the latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of at least the past millennium. The 1990s 

was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, at moderately high levels of confidence. The 20th century 

warming counters a millennial-scale cooling trend which is consistent with long-term astronomical forcing. 


Volume 26 

Issue 6 

Pages 759-762 



DOI 10.1029/1999GL900070 

ISSN 0094–8276 

Short Title Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium 




Northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in deglacial atmospheric CH₄ 


Author Alberto V. Reyes 

Author Colin A. Cooke 

Abstract Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically 

based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. 

However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality ¹⁴C dates are commonly included and 

because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of 

peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal ¹⁴C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show 

that nearly half the ¹⁴C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal 

structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated ¹⁴C dates. We present 

revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability 

distributions of calibrated ¹⁴C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged 

abrupt increases in atmospheric CH₄ concentration at the start of the Bølling–Allerød interstadial (Termination 

1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were 

not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH₄. Our results demonstrate that subtle 

methodological changes in the synthesis of basal ¹⁴C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of 

temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon 

cycle. 


Volume 108 

Issue 12 

Pages 4748-4753 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1013270108 

ISSN 0027-8424 



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Extra Keywords: radiocarbon dating; peatland carbon; ice core methane; paleoclimate. 



Nutrient regime shift in the western North Atlantic indicated by compound-specific δ15N of deep-sea 

gorgonian corals 


Author Owen A. Sherwood 

Author Moritz F. Lehmann 

Author Carsten J. Schubert 

Author David B. Scott 

Author Matthew D. McCarthy 

Abstract Despite the importance of the nitrogen (N) cycle on marine productivity, little is known about variability in N 

sources and cycling in the ocean in relation to natural and anthropogenic climate change. Beyond the last few 

decades of scientific observation, knowledge depends largely on proxy records derived from nitrogen stable 

isotopes (δ15N) preserved in sediments and other bioarchives. Traditional bulk δ15N measurements, however, 

represent the combined influence of N source and subsequent trophic transfers, often confounding 

environmental interpretation. Recently, compound-specific analysis of individual amino acids (δ15N-AA) has 

been shown as a means to deconvolve trophic level versus N source effects on the δ15N variability of bulk 

organic matter. Here, we demonstrate the first use of δ15N-AA in a paleoceanographic study, through analysis 

of annually secreted growth rings preserved in the organic endoskeletons of deep-sea gorgonian corals. In the 

Northwest Atlantic off Nova Scotia, coral δ15N is correlated with increasing presence of subtropical versus 

subpolar slope waters over the twentieth century. By using the new δ15N-AA approach to control for variable 

trophic processing, we are able to interpret coral bulk δ15N values as a proxy for nitrate source and, hence, 

slope water source partitioning. We conclude that the persistence of the warm, nutrient-rich regime since the 

early 1970s is largely unique in the context of the last approximately 1,800 yr. This evidence suggests that 

nutrient variability in this region is coordinated with recent changes in global climate and underscores the broad 

potential of δ15N-AA for paleoceanographic studies of the marine N cycle. 


Volume 108 

Issue 3 

Pages 1011-1015 



Language 1091-6490 

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1004904108 

URL http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/12/27/1004904108.abstract 

Extra Keywords: compound-specific isotope analysis; deep-sea corals; nitrogen cycle; North Atlantic Oscillation; 

stable N isotopes. 



Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th 

and 21st centuries 



Author Martin Scherer 

Abstract Given the severe impacts of extreme heat on natural and human systems, we attempt to quantify the likelihood 

that rising greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a new, permanent heat regime in which the coolest 

warm-season of the 21st century is hotter than the hottest warm-season of the late 20th century. Our analyses of 

global climate model experiments and observational data reveal that many areas of the globe are likely to 

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permanently move into such a climate space over the next four decades, should greenhouse gas concentrations 

continue to increase. In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated 

response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and 

robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently 

moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are 

able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection 

of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat. 


Volume 107 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 615-624 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y 



Observations on the nature and origin of fusain 



Abstract Evidence for a wildfire origin of fusain is examined. Charcoal produced by natural fires and artificial charring 

resembles fossil fusain both in physical size and shape and in optical reflectance. Artificially charred leaves and 

naturally burnt wood are illustrated using the SEM. Reflectance studies on modem charcoals suggest that much 

semifusinite may be produced by pyrolysis. The ecological implications of a wildfire origin of fusain are 

discussed and it is concluded that fires have been a feature of terrestrial ecosystems from at least the Late 

Devonian. 

Publication International Journal of Coal Geology 

Volume 12 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 443–475 


Journal Abbr Int. J. Coal Geol. 

DOI 10.1016/0166-5162(89)90061-X 

ISSN 0166-5162 

URL http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/016651628990061X 



Observations tending to investigate the nature of the Sun, in order to find the causes or symptoms of its 

variable emission of light and heat; with remarks on the use that may possibly be drawn from solar 

observations 


Author William Herschel 


Publication Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 

Volume 91 

Pages 265-318 


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Journal Abbr Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 

DOI 10.1098/rstl.1801.0015 

ISSN 0261-0523 




Observed climate variability and change 


Author Chris K. Folland 


Author M. Jim Salinger 


Publication Weather 

Volume 57 

Issue 8 

Pages 269-278 


Journal Abbr Weather 

DOI 10.1256/004316502320517353 

ISSN 0043-1656 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1256/004316502320517353 



Oceanographic events during El Niño 


Author Mark A. Cane 

Abstract El Niño events, the most spectacular instances of interannual variability in the ocean, have profound 

consequences for climate and the ocean ecosystem. The 1982-1983 El Niño is perhaps the strongest in this 

century. El Niño events usually have followed a predictable pattern, but the recent event differs markedly. The 

physical oceanography of this El Niño is described and compared with that of earlier events. 


Volume 222 

Issue 4629 

Pages 1189-1195 



DOI 10.1126/science.222.4629.1189 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Old-growth forest landscape transitions from pre-European settlement to present 


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Author Mark A. White 


Abstract We conducted a multi-temporal spatial analysis of forest cover for a 9600 ha landscape in northern Wisconsin, 

U.S.A., using data from pre-European settlement (1860s), post-settlement (1931), and current (1989) periods. 

Using GIS we have shown forest landscape changes and trajectories that have been generally described in 

aggregate for the norther Great Lake States region. We created the pre-European settlement map from the 

witness tree data of the original federal General Land Office survey notes. The 1931 cover was produced from 

the Wisconsin Land Economic Inventory, and the 1989 cover map was based on color infrared photography. We 

used GIS to analyze 1) land area occupied by different forest types at different dates, 2) temporal transitions 

between dates and their driving proceses, and 3) successional trajectories with landforms and spatial 

associations of forest types. Over the 120 year period, forest cover has changed from a landscape dominated by 

old-growth hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and hardwood forests (Acer saccharum, Betula alleghaniensis) to 

largely second-growth hardwoods and conifers. The former dominant hemlock is largely eliminated from the 

landscape. From 1860 to 1931, large-scale disturbances associated with logging were the dominant processes on 

the landscape. Early successional forest types covered much of the landscape by the 1930s. From 1931 to 1989, 

succession was the dominant process driving forest transitions as forest types succeeded to a diverse group of 

upland hardwood and conifer forest types. If successional trajectories continue, a more homogeneous landscape 

may develop comprised of both a northern hardwood type dominated by sugar maple, and a boreal 

conifer/hardwood forest. 


Volume 9 

Issue 3 

Pages 191-205 



DOI 10.1007/BF00134747 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/l50616626878542v/ 

Extra Keywords: Acer saccharum; disturbance; geographic information systems (GIS); hemlock; hardwood; 

old-growth forest; spatial pattern; succession; Tsuga canadensis; Wisconsin; western Great Lakes. 



On the earliest evidence for habitual use of fire in Europe 


Author W. Roebroeks 

Author P. Villa 

Abstract The timing of the human control of fire is a hotly debated issue, with claims for regular fire use by early 

hominins in Africa at ∼1.6 million y ago. These claims are not uncontested, but most archaeologists would agree 

that the colonization of areas outside Africa, especially of regions such as Europe where temperatures at time 

dropped below freezing, was indeed tied to the use of fire. Our review of the European evidence suggests that 

early hominins moved into northern latitudes without the habitual use of fire. It was only much later, from 

∼300,000 to 400,000 y ago onward, that fire became a significant part of the hominin technological repertoire. It 

is also from the second half of the Middle Pleistocene onward that we can observe spectacular cases of 

Neandertal pyrotechnological knowledge in the production of hafting materials. The increase in the number of 

sites with good evidence of fire throughout the Late Pleistocene shows that European Neandertals had fire 

management not unlike that documented for Upper Paleolithic groups. 


Date 03/2011 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1018116108 

ISSN 0027-8424 



Date Added Tuesday, March 15, 2011 6:13:52 PM 

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Attachments 

Modified Tuesday, March 15, 2011 6:14:38 PM 

Neanderthals were nifty at controlling fire 

Roebroeks and Villa_Neanderthol fire use_PNAS_2011.pdf 

Roebroeks and Villa_Supporting Infromation_PNAS_2011.pdf 

On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate 


Author Lisa M. Beal 

Author Wilhelmus P. M. De Ruijter 

Author Arne Biastoch 

Author Rainer Zahn 

Author Meghan Cronin 

Author Juliet Hermes 

Author Johann Lutjeharms 

Author Graham Quartly 

Author Tomoki Tozuka 

Author Sheekela Baker-Yeboah 

Author Thomas Bornman 

Author Paolo Cipollini 

Author Henk Dijkstra 

Author Ian Hall 

Author Wonsun Park 

Author Frank Peeters 

Author Pierrick Penven 

Author Herman Ridderinkhof 

Author Jens Zinke 

Abstract The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around 

the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate 

system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic 

overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is 

predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is 

largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments 

—backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations—are required to establish firmly the role 

of the Agulhas system in a warming climate. 


Volume 472 

Issue 7344 

Pages 429-436 



DOI 10.1038/nature09983 

ISSN 0028-0836 




On the use of ATSR fire count data to estimate the seasonal and interannual variability of vegetation fire 

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emissions 


Author Martin G. Schultz 

Abstract Biomass burning has long been recognised as an important source of trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. 

The burning of vegetation has a repeating seasonal pattern, but the intensity of burning and the exact 

localisation of fires vary considerably from year to year. Recent studies have demonstrated the high interannual 

variability of the emissions that are associated with biomass burning. In this paper I present a methodology using 

active fire counts from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) sensor on board the ERS-2 satellite to 

estimate the seasonal and interannual variability of global biomass burning emissions in the time period 

1996--2000. From the ATSR data, I compute relative scaling factors of burning intensity for each month, which 

are then applied to a standard inventory for carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning. The new, 

time-resolved inventory is evaluated using the few existing multi-year burned area observations on continental 

scales. 

Publication Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 

Volume 2 

Issue 5 

Pages 387–395 


Journal Abbr Atmos. Chem. Phys. 

DOI 10.5194/acpd-2-1159-2002 

ISSN 1680-7316 

URL http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/2/387/2002/acp-2-387-2002.html 



Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions 



Author Vivek K. Arora 

Author Kirsten Zickfeld 

Author Shawn J. Marshall 

Author William J. Merryfield 

Abstract A threat of irreversible damage should prompt action to mitigate climate change, according to the United 

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which serves as a basis for international climate policy. 

CO₂-induced climate change is known to be largely irreversible on timescales of many centuries, as simulated 

global mean temperature remains approximately constant for such periods following a complete cessation of 

carbon dioxide emissions while thermosteric sea level continues to rise. Here we use simulations with the 

Canadian Earth System Model to show that ongoing regional changes in temperature and precipitation are 

significant, following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions in 2100, despite almost constant global 

mean temperatures. Moreover, our projections show warming at intermediate depths in the Southern Ocean that 

is many times larger by the year 3000 than that realized in 2100. We suggest that a warming of the 

intermediate-depth ocean around Antarctica at the scale simulated for the year 3000 could lead to the collapse 

of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would be associated with a rise in sea level of several metres. 


Volume 4 

Issue 2 

Pages 83–87 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1047 

ISSN 1752-0908 



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Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of 

changing climates 




Author Brandon M. Collins 

Abstract Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired 

conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on 

past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, 

managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. 

Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. 

Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could 

be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the 

broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a 

goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, 

distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem 

processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have 

to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs 

and inevitably, there will be surprises. 

Publication Environmental Research Letters 

Volume 5 

Issue 2 

Pages 024003 (9 p.) 

Date April-June 2010 

Journal Abbr Environ. Res. Lett. 

DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024003 

ISSN 1748-9326 

URL http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/5/i=2/a=024003? 

key=crossref.45340bb0689aa66105104dc66b1b3923 

Extra Keywords: climate change; historical variability; restoration; forest policy; Sierra Nevada; Sierra San Pedro 

Martir; mixed conifer; Jeffrey pine; ponderosa pine; upper montane. 



Overstretching attribution 


Author Camille Parmesan 

Author Carlos Duarte 

Author Elvira Poloczanska 

Author Anthony J. Richardson 

Author Michael C. Singer 


Publication Nature Climate Change 

Volume 1 

Pages 2-4 


Journal Abbr Nature Climate Change 

DOI 10.1038/nclimate1056 

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ISSN 1758-678X 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1056 



Overview of the use of natural variability concepts in managing ecological systems 


Author Peter B. Landres 



Abstract Natural resource managers have used natural variability concepts since the early 1960s and are increasingly 

relying on these concepts to maintain biological diversity, to restore ecosystems that have been severely altered, 

and as benchmarks for assessing anthropogenic change. Management use of natural variability relies on two 

concepts: that past conditions and processes provide context and guidance for managing ecological systems 

today, and that disturbance-driven spatial and temporal variability is a vital attribute of nearly all ecological 

systems. We review the use of these concepts for managing ecological systems and landscapes. We conclude 

that natural variability concepts provide a framework for improved understanding of ecological systems and the 

changes occurring in these systems, as well as for evaluating the consequences of proposed management 

actions. Understanding the history of ecological systems (their past composition and structure, their spatial and 

temporal variability, and the principal processes that influenced them) helps managers set goals that are more 

likely to maintain and protect ecological systems and meet the social values desired for an area. Until we 

significantly improve our understanding of ecological systems, this knowledge of past ecosystem functioning is 

also one of the best means for predicting impacts to ecological systems today. These concepts can also be 

misused. No a priori time period or spatial extent should be used in defining natural variability. Specific goals, 

site-specific field data, inferences derived from data collected elsewhere, simulation models, and explicitly 

stated value judgment all must drive selection of the relevant time period and spatial extent used in defining 

natural variability. Natural variability concepts offer an opportunity and a challenge for ecologists to provide 

relevant information and to collaborate with managers to improve the management of ecological systems. 


Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 1179–1188 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1179:OOTUON]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: disturbance; ecosystem management; historical range of variability; landscape management; 

management of ecological systems; natural variability; restoration; variation, spatial and temporal scales. 



Overview: Global fire regime conditions, threats, and opportunities for fire management in the tropics 

(Chapter 3) 


Author Ayn Shlisky 

Author Ane A. C. Alencar 

Author María Manta Nolasco 

Author Lisa M. Curran 

Abstract Fire is a natural process that has played a major role in shaping our environment and maintaining biodiversity 

worldwide. However, over 60% of the world’s terrestrial habitats have altered fire regimes. At least 20% of 

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global habitats are classified as fire-sensitive, including most tropical habitats; they are composed of species that 

did not largely evolve in the presence of fire. Over 70% of these fire-sensitive habitats have altered fire regimes. 

While fire has been, and still is, an important tool used by humans to cultivate agricultural landscapes, when 

human actions cause too much, too little, or the wrong type of fire, it can threaten our environment by releasing 

unacceptable levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, providing pathways for harmful invasive species, 

altering landscape hydrology, impairing local and regional air quality, and presenting a direct and often increased 

risk to human habitation. Recognizing the value and need to assess the world’s fire regimes, The Nature 

Conservancy, University of California at Berkeley, World Conservation Union (IUCN), and World Wildlife Fund 

(WWF) completed an expert-based analysis of the state of the world’s fire regimes based on currently available 

data and expert opinion. The major sources of fire regime alteration worldwide include climate change, 

agriculture and ranching, deforestation, rural and urban development, energy production, fire exclusion and 

suppression, invasive species, plantations, and arson. Integrated fire management (IFM) is an approach that 

considers both damaging and beneficial fires within the context of the natural environments and socio-economic 

systems in which they occur. IFM takes into account fire ecology, socio-economic issues, and fire management 

technology to generate practical solutions to fire-related threats to biodiversity. 

Book Title Tropical Fire Ecology: Climate Change, Land Use, and Ecosystem Dynamics 

Series Springer Praxis Books 


Place UK 

Publisher Springer (Jointly published with Praxis Publishing) 

Date May 2009 

Pages 65–83 

ISBN 978-3540773801 

Short Title Overview 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/x824075qx34k7654/ 



Palaeoclimate: Long-distance relationship 


Author Kathleen R. Johnson 

Abstract Oxygen isotope variations in Chinese cave deposits have been interpreted as proxies for the East Asian summer 

monsoon. Numerical simulations suggest the deposits may instead record remote climate changes over India and 

the Indian Ocean. 


Volume 4 

Issue 7 

Pages 426–427 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1190 

ISSN 1752-0894 

Short Title Palaeoclimate 




Paleoclimate, global change and the future 

Type Book 

Editor Keith D. Alverson 

Editor Raymond S. Bradley 

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Editor Thomas F. Pedersen 

Abstract Description: This book provides a synthesis of the past decade of research into global changes that occurred in 

the earth system in the past. Focus is achieved by concentrating on those changes in the Earth's past 

environment that best inform our evaluation of current and future global changes and their consequences for 

human populations. The book stands as a ten year milestone in the operation of the Past Global Changes 

(PAGES) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). It seeks to provide a 

quantitative understanding of the Earth’s environment in the geologically recent past and to define the envelope 

of natural environmental variability against which anthropogenic impacts on the Earth System may be assessed. 

A set of color overhead transparencies based on the figures in the book is available free on the PAGES website 

(www.pages-igbp.org) for use in teaching and lecturing. (from: http://www.amazon.com/Paleoclimate-Global- 

Change-Future-Alverson/dp/3540424024) 

Series The IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) Series 


Place Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 


Date 2003 


ISBN 3-540-42402-4 

URL http://gidimap.giub.uni-bonn.de:9080/geomorph/themen/paleoclimate-global-change-and-the-future 

Archive PAGES website 

Loc. in Archive www.pages-igbp.org 



Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present 

Type Book 

Author Thomas M. Cronin 

Abstract The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that 

have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. 

Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring 

programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history.When 

combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the 

causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, 

oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate 

research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's 

climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in 

atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature 

variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. 

This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, 

geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute 

to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on 

natural climate variability. 



Publisher Columbia University Press 



ISBN 0231144946, 9780231144940 

Short Title Paleoclimates 

URL http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-14494-0/paleoclimates 

Archive http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=& 



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Notes: 

Contents: 

Ch. 1. Paleoclimatology and Modern Challenges -- Ch. 2. Methods in Paleoclimatology -- Ch. 3. Deep Time: Climate from 3.8 Billion 

to 65 Million Years Ago -- Ch. 4. Cenozoic Climate -- Ch. 5. Orbital Climate Change -- Ch. 6. Glacial Millennial Climate Change 

-- Ch. 7. Millennial Climate Events During Deglaciation -- Ch. 8. Holocene Climate Variability -- Ch. 9. Abrupt Climate Events -- Ch. 

10. Internal Modes of Climate Variability -- Ch. 11. The Anthropocene I: Global and Hemispheric Temperature -- Ch. 12. The 

Anthropocene II: Climatic and Hydrological Change During the Last 2000 Years -- Appendix. Paleoclimate Proxies. 

Review site: 

http://www.eurojnlofpsychotraumatol.net/coaction/index.php/polar/article/viewArticle/5927/html_38 

Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing climates of the Quaternary 

Type Book 

Author Raymond S Bradley 


Series International geophysics series 


Place San Diego, California; London 


Date 1999 (2005: 2nd edition) 


ISBN 012124010X 

Short Title Paleoclimatology 

URL http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html/ 



Paleoecological perspectives on fire ecology: Revisiting the fire-regime concept 




Author David B. McWethy 

Author Christy E. Briles 

Abstract Fire is well recognized as a key Earth system process, but its causes and influences vary greatly across spatial 

and temporal scales. The controls of fire are often portrayed as a set of superimposed triangles, with processes 

ranging from oxygen to weather to climate, combustion to fuel to vegetation, and local to landscape to regional 

drivers over broadening spatial and lengthening temporal scale. Most ecological studies and fire management 

plans consider the effects of fire-weather and fuels on local to sub-regional scales and time frames of years to 

decades. Fire reconstructions developed from high-resolution tree-ring records and lake-sediment data that span 

centuries to millennia offer unique insights about fire’s role that cannot otherwise be obtained. Such records 

help disclose the historical range of variability in fire activity over the duration of a vegetation type; the role of 

large-scale changes of climate, such as seasonal changes in summer insolation; the consequences of major 

reorganizations in vegetation; and the influence of prehistoric human activity in different ecological settings. 

This paleoecological perspective suggests that fire-regime definitions, which focus on the characteristic 

frequency, size and intensity of fire and particular fuel types, should be reconceptualized to better include the 

controls of fire regimes over the duration of a particular biome. We suggest that approaches currently used to 

analyze fire regimes across multiple spatial scales should be employed to examine fire occurrence across 

multiple temporal scales. Such cross-scale patterns would better reveal the full variability of particular fire 

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regimes and their controls, and provide relevant information for the types of fire regimes likely to occur in the 

future with projected climate and land-use change. 

Publication The Open Ecology Journal 

Volume 3 

Issue Special Issue #001 

Pages 6–23 

Date 2010 

Journal Abbr Open Ecology Journal 

DOI 10.2174/1874213001003020006 

ISSN 1874-2130 

Short Title Paleoecological Perspectives on Fire Ecology 

URL http://www.benthamscience.com/open/toecolj/openaccess2.htm 

Extra Keywords: fire history; fire triangle; fire-climate; fire-human; fire-vegetation; charcoal records; fire regimes. 



Palynological evidence for early Holocene aridity in the southern Sierra Nevada, California 


Author Owen K. Davis 


Author Patricia L. Fall 

Author Mary K. O'Rourke 

Author Robert S. Thompson 

Abstract Sediments of Balsam Meadow have produced a 11,000-yr pollen record from the southern Sierra Nevada of 

California. The Balsam Meadow diagram is divided into three zones. (1) The Artemisia zone (11,000-7000 yr 

B.P.) is characterized by percentages of sagebrush (Artemisia) and other nonarboreal pollen higher than can be 

found in the modern local vegetation. Vegetation during this interval was probably similar to the modern 

vegetation on the east slope of the Sierra Nevada and the climate was drier than that of today. (2) Pinus pollen 

exceeded 80% from 7000 to 3000 yr B.P. in the Pinus zone. The climate was moister than during the Artemisia 

zone. (3) Fir (Abies, Cupressaceae, and oak (Quercus) percentages increased after 3000 yr B.P. in the Abies 

zone as the modern vegetation at the site developed and the present cool-moist climatic regime was established. 

Decreased fire frequency after 1200 yr B.P. is reflected in decreased abundance of macroscopic charcoal and 

increased concentration of Abies magnifica and Pinus murrayana needles. 


Volume 24 

Issue 3 

Pages 322-332 



DOI 10.1016/0033-5894(85)90054-7 

ISSN 0033-5894 




Paradise burnt: How colonizing humans transform landscapes with fire 



Author S. G. Haberle 


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Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21234-21235 

Date 12/2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1016393108 

ISSN 0027-8424 





Paradise burnt: How colonizing humans transform landscapes with fire 


Author David M. J. S. Bowman 

Author Simon G. Haberle 

Abstract A striking feature of Southern Hemisphere landscapes is the occurrence of grasslands in regions that are 

climatically suitable for forests ( Fig. 1 ). Ecologists and biogeographers working in these southern lands have 

developed a range of theories to account for the biogeographic anomaly of grassland–forest mosaics ( 1– 7). 

Broadly speaking, these theories divide into those that privilege the importance of an ensemble of 

environmental factors, including fire, or those that stress the legacy of human landscape burning. The report by 

McWethy et al. in PNAS ( 8) provides incontrovertible evidence that anthropogenic burning transformed 

temperate forested landscapes on the South Island of New Zealand. They show that Polynesian (Māori) firing 

commenced shortly after colonization around A.D. 1280 and transformed 40% of the original forest cover of the 

island to grassland and fern-shrubland. There is little room for doubting their findings given the elegant 

integration of a range of paleoecological methodologies, very precise dating, and a high level of replication 

across the island. This report will spark renewed interest in the relative importance of fire, humans, and climate 

in shaping forest–grassland landscape mosaics worldwide ( 9). 


Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21234 -21235 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1016393108 

ISSN 0027-8424 

Short Title Paradise burnt 

URL http://www.pnas.org/content/107/50/21234.short 



Past and current trends of change in a dune prairie/oak savanna reconstructed through a multiple-scale 

history 


Author Kenneth L. Cole 

Author Robert S. Taylor 

Abstract The history of a rapidly changing mosaic of prairie and oak savanna in northern Indiana was reconstructed using 

several methods emphasizing different time scales ranging from annual to millennial. Vegetation change was 

monitored for 8 yr using plots and for 30 yr using aerial photographs. A 20th century fire history was 

reconstructed from the stand structure of multiple-stemmed trees and fire scars. General Land Office Survey 

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data were used to reconstruct the forest of A.D. 1834. Fossil pollen and charcoal records were used to 

reconstruct the last 4000 yr of vegetation and fire history. Since its deposition along the shore of Lake Michigan 

about 4000 yr ago, the area has followed a classical primary dune successional sequence, gradually changing 

from pine forest to prairie/oak savanna between A.D. 264 and 1007. This successional trend, predicted in the 

models of Henry Cowles, occurred even though the climate cooled and prairies elsewhere in the region 

retreated. Severe fires in the 19th century reduced most tree species but led to a temporary increase in Populus 

tremuloides. During the last few decades, the prairie has been invaded by oaks and other woody species, 

primarily because of fire suppression since A.D. 1972. The rapid and complex changes now occurring are a 

response to the compounded effects of plant succession, intense burning and logging in the 19th century, recent 

fire suppression, and possibly increased airborne deposition of nitrates. The compilation of several historical 

research techniques emphasizing different time scales allows this study of the interactions between multiple 

disturbance variables. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 399–410 



DOI 10.2307/3236239 

ISSN 1654-1103 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2307/3236239/abstract 

Extra Keywords: fire history; fossil charcoal; fossil pollen; Indiana; oak savanna; sand prairie; succession. 



Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties 



Abstract Fire is a global process affecting both the biosphere and the atmosphere. As a result, measuring rates of change 

in wildland fire and understanding the mechanisms responsible for such changes are important research goals. A 

large body of modeling studies projects increases in wildfire activity in future decades, but few empirical studies 

have documented change in modern fire regimes. Identifying generalizable pathways through which climate 

change may alter fire regimes is a critical next step for understanding, measuring, and modeling fire under a 

changing climate. In this progress report, I review recent model-, empirical-, and fire history-based studies of 

fire and climate change and propose three pathways along which fire regimes might respond to climate change: 

changes in fuel condition, fuel volume, and ignitions. Model- and empirical-based studies have largely focused 

on changes in fuel condition with some models projecting up to 50% increases in area burned under a 2 x CO₂ 

climate. Fire history data derived from tree-rings, sediment charcoal, and soil charcoal have helped identify past 

trajectories of change in fire regimes and can point to possible future conditions. However, most fire history 

research has focused on changes in area burned and fire frequency. Changes in fire severity may be equally 

important for the earth system and require further attention. Critical research needs include next generation 

dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) that consider changes in vegetation alongside changes in human activities 

and long fire history records from a variety of vegetation types suitable for validating these DGVMs. 

Publication Progress in Physical Geography 

Volume 35 

Issue 3 

Pages 393 -407 


Journal Abbr Prog. Phys. Geog. 

DOI 10.1177/0309133311407654 

ISSN 1477-0296 

Short Title Pathways for climate change effects on fire 

URL http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/35/3/393.abstract 

Extra Keywords: climate change; fire; fire history; sedimentary charcoal; tree-rings. 

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Pattern scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates 


Author Timothy D. Mitchell 

Abstract A fully probabilistic, or risk, assessment of future regional climate change and its impacts involves more 

scenarios of radiative forcing than can besimulated by a general (GCM) or regional (RCM) circulation model. 

Additional scenarios may be created by scaling a spatial response pattern from a GCM by a global warming 

projection from a simple climate model. I examine this technique, known as pattern scaling, using a particular 

GCM (HadCM2).The critical assumption is that there is a linear relationship between the scaler (annual 

global-mean temperature) and the response pattern. Previous studies have found this assumption to be broadly 

valid for annual temperature; I extend this conclusion to precipitation and seasonal climate. However,slight 

non-linearities arise from the dependence of the climatic response on the rate, not just the amount, of change in 

the scaler. These non-linearitiesintroduce some significant errors into the estimates made by pattern scaling,but 

nonetheless the estimates accurately represent the modelled changes. A response pattern may be made more 

robust by lengthening the period from which it is obtained, by anomalising it relative to the control simulation, 

and by using least squares regression to obtain it. The errors arising from pattern scaling may be minimised by 

interpolating from a stronger to a weaker forcing scenario. 


Volume 60 

Issue 3 

Pages 217–242 



DOI 10.1023/A:1026035305597 

ISSN 0165-0009 

Short Title Pattern scaling 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/u3k8m05208105057/ 



Patterns of fire severity and forest conditions in the western Klamath Mountains, California 


Author Dennis C. Odion 

Author Evan J. Frost 

Author James R. Strittholt 

Author Hong Jiang 

Author Dominick A. Dellasala 


Abstract The Klamath-Siskiyou region of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon supports globally outstanding 

temperate biodiversity. Fire has been important in the evolutionary history that shaped this diversity, but recent 

human influences have altered the fire environment. We tested for modern human impacts on the fire regime by 

analyzing temporal patterns in fire extent and spatial patterns of fire severity in relation to vegetation structure, 

past fire occurrence, roads, and timber management in a 98,814-ha area burned in 1987. Fire severity was 

mapped by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service as low, moderate, and high based on levels of 

canopy scorch and consumption. We found (1) a trend of increasing fire size in recent decades; (2) that overall 

fire-severity proportions were 59% low, 29% moderate, and 12% high, which is comparable to both 

contemporary and historic fires in the region; (3) that multiaged, closed forests, the predominant vegetation, 

burned with much lower severity than did open forest and shrubby nonforest vegetation; (4) that considerably 

less high-severity fire occurred where fire had previously be absent since 1920 in closed forests compared to 

where the forests had burned since 1920 (7% vs. 16%); (5) that nonforest vegetation burned with greater 

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severity where there was a history of fire since 1920 and in roaded areas; and (6) that tree plantations 

experienced twice as much severe fire as multi-aged forests. We concluded that fuel buildup in the absence of 

fire did not cause increased fire severity as hypothesized. Instead, fuel that is receptive to combustion may 

decrease in the long absence of fire in the closed forests of our study area, which will favor the fire regime that 

has maintained these forests. However, plantations are now found in one-third of the roaded landscape. 

Together with warming climate, this may increase the size and severity of future fires, favoring further 

establishment of structurally and biologically simple plantations. 


Volume 18 

Issue 4 

Pages 927–936 



DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00493.x 

ISSN 1523-1739 


Extra Keywords: Douglas-fir; fire regimes; fire severity; hardwoods; Klamath-Siskiyou region; roadless areas; 

silviculture. 



Peak detection in sediment–charcoal records: Impacts of alternative data analysis methods on 

fire-history interpretations 






Abstract Over the past several decades, high-resolution sediment–charcoal records have been increasingly used to 

reconstruct local fire history. Data analysis methods usually involve a decomposition that detrends a charcoal 

series and then applies a threshold value to isolate individual peaks, which are interpreted as fire episodes. 

Despite the proliferation of these studies, methods have evolved largely in the absence of a thorough statistical 

framework. We describe eight alternative decomposition models (four detrending methods used with two 

threshold-determination methods) and evaluate their sensitivity to a set of known parameters integrated into 

simulated charcoal records. Results indicate that the combination of a globally defined threshold with specific 

detrending methods can produce strongly biased results, depending on whether or not variance in a charcoal 

record is stationary through time. These biases are largely eliminated by using a locally defined threshold, which 

adapts to changes in variability throughout a charcoal record. Applying the alternative decomposition methods 

on three previously published charcoal records largely supports our conclusions from simulated records. We also 

present a minimum-count test for empirical records, which reduces the likelihood of false positives when 

charcoal counts are low. We conclude by discussing how to evaluate when peak detection methods are 

warranted with a given sediment–charcoal record. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 996–1014 



DOI 10.1071/WF09134 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Peak detection in sediment–charcoal records 


Extra Keywords: bias; paleoecology; sensitivity. 

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Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases 



Author John S. Daniel 

Author Todd J. Sanford 

Author Daniel M. Murphy 




Abstract Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon 

dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here 

we show that the warming due to non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer 

than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the 

persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on 

climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and 

methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. 

In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow 

the loss of energy from the Earth’s climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change 

mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to 

decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such 

actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean. 


Volume 107 

Issue 43 

Pages 18354-18359 

Date October 26, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1006282107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: atmosphere; dynamics; radiation. 



Persistent El Niño–Southern Oscillation variation during the Pliocene Epoch 


Author Nicholas Scroxton 

Author Sarah G. Bonham 

Author Rosalind E. M. Rickaby 

Author S. H. F. Lawrence 

Author Michael Hermoso 

Author Alan M. Haywood 

Abstract There is an urgent requirement to understand how large fluctuations in tropical heat distribution associated with 

the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. 

Intervals of global warmth in Earth history provide a unique natural laboratory to explore the behavior of ENSO 

in a warmer world. To investigate interannual climatic variability, specifically ENSO, in the mid-Piacenzian 

Warm Period (mPWP) (3.26–3.03 Ma), we integrate observations from the stable isotopes of multiple individual 

planktonic foraminifera from three different species from the eastern equatorial Pacific with ENSO simulations 

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from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. 

Our proxy data and model outputs show persistent interannual variability during the mPWP caused by a 

fluctuating thermocline, despite a deeper thermocline and reduced upwelling. We show that the likely cause of 

the deeper thermocline is due to warmer equatorial undercurrents rather than reduced physical upwelling. We 

conclude that the mPWP was characterized by ENSO-related variability around a mean state akin to a modern 

El Niño event. Furthermore, HadCM3 predicts that the warmer Pliocene world is characterized by a more 

periodic, regular-amplitude ENSO fluctuation, suggestive that the larger and deeper west Pacific warm pool is 

more easily destabilized eastward. These conclusions are comparable to the observed trend over the last 40 

years to more regular and intense ENSO events. Future research must resolve whether global warming alone, or 

in concert with tectonic factors, was sufficient to alter ENSO variability during warm intervals of the Pliocene. 

Publication Paleoceanography 

Volume 26 

Issue 2 

Pages PA2215 (13 p.) 

Date May 2011 

Journal Abbr Paleoceanography 

DOI 10.1029/2010PA002097 

ISSN 0883-8305 

URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010PA002097.shtml 

Extra Keywords: Pliocene warm period; mid-Piacenzian Warm Period; El Padre. 



Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly 



Author Jan Esper 

Author Nicholas E. Graham 

Author Andy Baker 

Author James D. Scourse 

Author David C. Frank 

Abstract The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European 

climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North 

Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary 

reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions 

into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a 

global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña–like conditions amplified 

by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA. 


Volume 324 

Issue 5923 

Pages 78-80 



DOI 10.1126/science.1166349 

ISSN 0036-8075 


Extra CO2 Science: http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N27/EDIT.php 



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Pervasive oxygenation along late Archaean ocean margins 


Author Brian Kendall 

Author Christopher T. Reinhard 

Author Timothy W. Lyons 

Author Alan J. Kaufman 

Author Simon W. Poulton 

Author Ariel D. Anbar 

Abstract The photosynthetic production of oxygen in the oceans is thought to have begun by 2.7 billion years ago, 

several hundred million years before appreciable accumulation of oxygen in the atmosphere. However, the 

abundance and distribution of dissolved oxygen in the late Archaean oceans is poorly constrained. Here we 

present geochemical profiles from 2.6- to 2.5-billion-year-old black shales from the Campbellrand–Malmani 

carbonate platform in South Africa. We find a high abundance of rhenium and a low abundance of 

molybdenum, which, together with the speciation of sedimentary iron, points to the presence of dissolved 

oxygen in the bottom waters on the platform slope. The water depth on the slope probably reached several 

hundred metres, implying the export of O₂ below the photic zone. Our data also indicate that the mildly 

oxygenated surface ocean gave way to an anoxic deep ocean. We therefore suggest that the production of 

oxygen in the surface ocean was vigorous at this time, but was not sufficient to fully consume the deep-sea 

reductants. On the basis of our results and observations from the Hamersley basin in Western Australia, we 

conclude that the productive regions along ocean margins during the late Archaean eon were sites of substantial 

O₂ accumulation, at least 100 million years before the first significant increase in atmospheric O₂ concentration. 


Volume 3 

Issue 9 

Pages 647-652 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo942 

ISSN 1752-0894 




Physiographic analysis of witness-tree distribution (1765–1798) and present forest cover through north 

central Pennsylvania 




Abstract This study analyzed witness-tree data recorded from 1765 to 1798 with respect to landform in four major 

physiographic provinces represented through north central Pennsylvania. These data were also compared with 

present-day forest composition to evaluate broad changes that occurred 200 years after European settlement. In 

the Allegheny High Plateau, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. represented 40-47% of witness trees in mountain coves 

and stream valleys, but only 9% on plateau tops, which comprised 45% Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. Pinus strobus L. 

represented less than or equal to 4% frequency across all landforms. The original forests of the Allegheny 

Mountains were dominated by mixed Quercus, Acer, Castanea dentata (Marsh.) Borkh., and Pinus and had 

significant T. canadensis only in stream valleys. The presettlement forests of the Allegheny Front and the Ridge 

and Valley provinces had a similar mix of Quercus, Pinus, Castanea, and Carya, with increased P. strobus the 

more mesic sites and Pinus rigida Mill. on the xeric ridges. Comparisons of presettlement with present-day 

forest composition indicate a dramatic reduction of T. canadensis (32% to 4%) and F. grandifolia (33% to 12%) 

in the High Plateau and increases in Acer (11% to 37%), Quercus rubra L. (0% to 10%), Prunus serotina Ehrh. 

(1% to 6%), and Betula (5% to 10%). Other units exhibited reductions in P. strobus, P. rigida, Quercus alba L., 

and Carya spp. and increases in Quercus prinus L., Q. rubra, Acer rubrum L., and P. serotina. Castanea dentata 

had its greatest abundance on higher elevation sites in each physiographic unit, and the elimination of this 

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species this century apparently facilitated the increase in Q. prinus and Q. rubra on ridge sites. South of the 

Allegheny Plateau, increases in A. rubrum, P. serotina, and other mixed-mesophytic species may be in response 

to fire exclusion this century. The results of this study indicate the importance of landform and physiography on 

presettlement forest composition 


Volume 25 

Issue 4 

Pages 659–668 



DOI 10.1139/x95-073 

ISSN 1208-6037 




Pine Barrens: Ecosystem and landscape 

Type Book 

Editor Richard T. T. Forman 


Series Environmental Studies and Ecology 

Edition illustrated, reprint, revised 

Place New Brunswick, NJ, and London 

Publisher Rutgers University Press 



ISBN 9780813525938, 081352534 

Short Title Pine Barrens 

URL http://rutgerspress.rutgers.edu/acatalog/__Pine_Barrens_329.html 



Plant functional traits in relation to fire in crown-fire ecosystems 



Author Ross A. Bradstock 

Author David A. Keith 


Abstract Disturbance is a dominant factor in many ecosystems, and the disturbance regime is likely to change over the 

next decades in response to land-use changes and global warming. We assume that predictions of vegetation 

dynamics can be made on the basis of a set of life-history traits that characterize the response of a species to 

disturbance. For crown-fire ecosystems, the main plant traits related to postfire persistence are the ability to 

resprout (persistence of individuals) and the ability to retain a persistent seed bank (persistence of populations). 

In this context, we asked (1) to what extent do different life-history traits co-occur with the ability to resprout 

and/or the ability to retain a persistent seed bank among differing ecosystems and (2) to what extent do 

combinations of fire-related traits (fire syndromes) change in a fire regime gradient? We explored these 

questions by reviewing the literature and analyzing databases compiled from different crown-fire ecosystems 

(mainly eastern Australia, California, and the Mediterranean basin). The review suggests that the pattern of 

correlation between the two basic postfire persistent traits and other plant traits varies between continents and 

ecosystems. From these results we predict, for instance, that not all resprouters respond in a similar way 

everywhere because the associated plant traits of resprouter species vary in different places. Thus, attempts to 

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generalize predictions on the basis of the resprouting capacity may have limited power at a global scale. An 

example is presented for Australian heathlands. Considering the combination of persistence at individual 

(resprouting) and at population (seed bank) level, the predictive power at local scale was significantly increased. 


Volume 85 

Issue 4 

Pages 1085-1100 



DOI 10.1890/02-4094 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: fire-prone ecosystems; forest fires; Mediterranean-type ecosystems; plant functional types; plant 

traits; regeneration; resprouting seeding; wildfires. 



Plants and people: Vegetation change in North America 

Type Book 

Author Thomas R. Vale 




Publisher Association of American Geographers 

Date 1982 


ISBN 0892911514, 9780892911516 

Short Title Plants and people 

URL http://www.getcited.org/pub/102212082 



Notes: 

Original title: 

Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America (Resource Publications in Geography) 

Polar front shift and atmospheric CO₂ during the glacial maximum of the Early Paleozoic Icehouse 


Author Thijs R. A. Vandenbroucke 

Author Howard A. Armstrong 

Author Mark Williams 

Author Florentin Paris 

Author Jan A. Zalasiewicz 

Author Koen Sabbe 

Author Jaak Nõlvak 

Author Thomas J. Challands 

Author Jacques Verniers 

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Author Thomas Servais 

Abstract Our new data address the paradox of Late Ordovician glaciation under supposedly high ρCO₂ (8 to 22× PAL: 

preindustrial atmospheric level). The paleobiogeographical distribution of chitinozoan (“mixed layer”) marine 

zooplankton biotopes for the Hirnantian glacial maximum (440 Ma) are reconstructed and compared to those 

from the Sandbian (460 Ma): They demonstrate a steeper latitudinal temperature gradient and an equatorwards 

shift of the Polar Front through time from 55°–70° S to ∼40° S. These changes are comparable to those during 

Pleistocene interglacial-glacial cycles. In comparison with the Pleistocene, we hypothesize a significant decline 

in mean global temperature from the Sandbian to Hirnantian, proportional with a fall in ρCO₂ from a modeled 

Sandbian level of ~8× PAL to ~5× PAL during the Hirnantian. Our data suggest that a compression of 

midlatitudinal biotopes and ecospace in response to the developing glaciation was a likely cause of the 

end-Ordovician mass extinction. 


Volume 107 

Issue 34 

Pages 14983-14986 

Date August 24, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1003220107 

ISSN 0027-8424 

URL www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1003220107 

Extra Keywords: chitinozoans; Ordovician; zooplankton biotopes; Hirnantian glaciations; climate belts. 



Pollen analysis of Tulare Lake, California: Great Basin-like vegetation in Central California during the 

full-glacial and early Holocene 


Author Owen K. Davis 

Abstract Pollen analysis and nine radiocarbon dates of an 853-cm core from historically drained Tulare Lake, southcentral 

California are reported prior to 7000 yr B.P., the vegetation of the southern San Joaquin Valley (central 

California) resembled that of the contemporary Great Basin, including abundant greasewood (Sarcobatus), 

which currently does not occur west of the Sierra Nevada. The early-Holocene pollen assemblage is dominated 

by Cupressaceae (>40%), Pinus (>20%), Quercus (5-20%), Artemisia (>15%), and Sarcobatus (>5%), 

suggesting pinyon-juniper-oak woodland in the uplands, with greasewood on the saltflats near the lake. Giant 

sequoia was widespread along the Sierra Nevada streams draining into Tulare Lake, prior to 9000 yr B.P. as 

Sequoiadendron pollen is greater than 4%. The pollen assemblages before 18,500 yr B.P. are similar to those of 

the early Holocene (Cupressaceae, Artemisia, and Sarcobatus), but a gap in sedimentation from ca. 

18,500-10,500 yr B.P. prohibits characterization of full-glacial vegetation. The end of Great Basin-like pollen 

assemblages 7000 yr B.P. (demise of Sarcobatus) coincides with increased frequency of charcoal; i.e., greater 

fire frequency in the Holocene woodland and grassland. From 7000-4000 yr B.P. the pollen assemblage is 

dominated by Other Compositae and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthus pollen, suggesting expansion of xerophytic 

steppe at the expense of oak woodland. Higher percentages of littoral pollen (Cyperaceae, Typha-Sparganium) 

and lower percentages of pelagic algae (Botryococcus + Pediastrum) during the middle Holocene indicate lake 

levels generally lower than during the early Holocene. The late Holocene begins with a cold-wet period 

3500-2500 yr B.P. followed by progressive drying of the lake. Climate estimates based on modern pollen 

analogs confirm the climate implications of the vegetation and lake history. Early Holocene climate was cold 

and wet, and maximum Holocene temperature and drought occurred between 7000 and 4000 yr B.P. Cool-moist 

climate from 4000 to 2000 yr B.P. is followed by a return to aridity and high temperature ca. 1000 yr B.P. 

Publication Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 

Volume 107 

Issue 3-4 

Pages 249-257 


Journal Abbr Rev. Palaeobot. Palyno. 

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DOI 10.1016/S0034-6667(99)00020-2 

ISSN 0034-6667 

Short Title Pollen analysis of Tulare Lake, California 


Extra Keywords: Quaternary; vegetation; California; palynology; climate change; biogeography. 



Pollen records, postglacial | Southeastern North America 

Notes: 

Citation: 


Author Debra A. Willard 

Abstract The unglaciated southeastern United States is an excellent region to examine vegetational response to retreat of 

the Laurentide ice sheet and associated climatic fluctuations over the last not, vert, similar22 kyr. Postglacial 

sedimentary records from this region provide details on migration rates and environmental tolerance of taxa 

during the interval between maximum glaciation and the present Holocene interglacial period. This article 

summarizes 75 yr of research on the vegetational history of the southeastern United States and presents a 

summary of the present distribution of vegetation in the region calibrated with pollen abundance trends. 

Changes in distribution of forest communities from the full glacial, deglacial, and Holocene are presented, along 

with current and potential future directions for paleoecological research in the region. 

Book Title Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science 

Volume 1 



Place Amsterdam 

Publisher Elsevier Science 


Pages 2752-2762 

ISBN 0-444-51919-X (doi:10.1016/B0-44-452747-8/00204-0) 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0444527478002040 

Extra Keywords: Southeastern United States; palynology; quaternary; Holocene; Last Glacial Maximum; deglacial; 

boreal forest; geochronology; paleoecology. 



Willard, Debra A. (2007) Pollen records, postglacial | Southeastern North America. pp.2752-2762: In Encyclopedia of Quaternary 

Science , S.A. Elias (ed.), Elsevier Scientific Publishing, Inc. 

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies 


Author Colin Price 


Abstract The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible 

implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments 

were conducted: one for a 2 × CO₂ climate (representing a 4.2°C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in 

the solar constant (representing a 5.9°C global cooling). The results suggest a 30% increase in global lightning 

activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This 

implies an approximate 5–6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1°C global warming/cooling. 

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Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies 

showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled 

lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day. 


Volume 99 

Issue D5 

Pages 10823-10831 

Date May 20, 1994 


DOI 10.1029/94JD00019 

ISSN 0148–0227 




Postglacial fire, vegetation, and climate history in the Clearwater Range, Northern Idaho, USA 


Author A Brunelle 


Volume 60 

Issue 3 

Pages 307-318 

Date 11/2003 

Journal Abbr Quaternary Research 

DOI 10.1016/j.yqres.2003.07.009 

ISSN 00335894 





Postglacial fire, vegetation, and climate history in the Clearwater Range, Northern Idaho, USA 




Abstract The environmental history of the Northern Rocky Mountains was reconstructed using lake sediments from 

Burnt Knob Lake, Idaho, and comparing the results with those from other previously published sites in the 

region to understand how vegetation and fire regimes responded to large-scale climate changes during the 

Holocene. Vegetation reconstructions indicate parkland or alpine meadow at the end of the glacial period 

indicating cold-dry conditions. From 14,000 to 12,000 cal yr B.P., abundant Pinus pollen suggests warmer, 

moister conditions than the previous period. Most sites record the development of a forest with Pseudotsuga ca. 

9500 cal yr B.P. indicating warm dry climate coincident with the summer insolation maximum. As the 

amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation waned during the middle Holocene, Pseudotsuga was replaced 

by Pinus and Abies suggesting cool, moist conditions. The fire reconstructions show less synchroneity. In 

general, the sites west of the continental divide display a fire-frequency maximum around 12,000–8000 cal yr 

B.P., which coincides with the interval of high summer insolation and stronger-than-present subtropical high. 

The sites on the east side of the continental divide have the highest fire frequency ca. 6000–3500 cal yr B.P. and 

may be responding to a decrease in summer precipitation as monsoonal circulation weakened in the middle and 

late Holocene. This study demonstrated that the fire frequency of the last two decades does not exceed the 

historical range of variability in that periods of even higher-than-present fire frequency occurred in the past. 


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Volume 60 

Issue 3 

Pages 307-318 



DOI 10.1016/j.yqres.2003.07.009 

ISSN 0033-5894 


Extra Keywords: Idaho; Clearwater Range; Selway–Bitterroot Wilderness Area; fire history; charcoal analyses; 

pollen; paleoecology. 



Postglacial vegetation and fire history, eastern Klamath Mountains, California, USA 


Author Jerry A. Mohr 



Abstract Pollen and high-resolution charcoal data from Bluff Lake and Crater Lake, California, indicate simi lar changes 

in climate, vegetation and fire history during the last 15 500 years. Pollen data at Bluff Lake suggest that the 

vegetation betweenc. 15 500 and 13 100 cal. BP consisted of subalpine parkland with scattered Pinus andAbies. 

After 13 100 cal. BP a relatively closed forest ofP. monticola,P. contorta andAbies developed, and fire-event 

frequency was low. The inferred climate then was cooler and wetter than present. Pinus and Quercus 

vaccinifolia dominated at both sites during the early Holocene, when conditions were warm and dry. As climate 

became wetter and cooler in the late Holocene,Abies spp. at both sites andTsuga mertensi ana at Crater Lake 

increased in importance, displacingPinus andQuercus. The two lake records have similar trends in fire history, 

with high event frequencies atc. 8400, 4000 and 1000 cal. BP and low values atc. 4800 cal. BP. The fire and 

vegetation history at both sites suggests a similar response to large-scale changes in climate during the Holocene. 


Volume 10 

Issue 5 

Pages 587–601 



DOI 10.1191/095968300675837671 

ISSN 1477-0911 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/content/10/5/587.refs 

Extra Keywords: fire history; vegetation history; charcoal records; Holocene; Pacific Northwest; Klamath Mountains. 



Postsettlement changes in natural fire regimes and forest structure: Ecological restoration of old-growth 

ponderosa pine forests 


Author W. Wallace Covington 

Author Margaret M. Moore 

Abstract Heavy livestock grazing, logging, and fire exclusion associated with Euro-American settlement has brought 

about substantial changes in forest conditions in western forests. Thus, old-growth definitions based on current 

forest conditions may not be compatible with the natural conditions prevalent throughout the evolutionary 

history of western forest types. Detailed analysis of data from two study areas in the southwestern ponderosa 

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Notes: 

Source: 

pine type suggests that average tree densities have increased from as few as 23 trees per acre in presettlement 

times to as many as 851 trees per acre today. Associated with these increases in tree density are increases in 

canopy closure, vertical fuel continuity, and surface fuel loadings resulting in fire hazards over large areas never 

reached before settlement. In addition, fire exclusion and increased tree density has likely decreased tree vigor 

(increasing mortality from disease, insect, drought, etc.), herbaceous and shrub production, aesthetic values, 

water availability and runoff, and nutrient availability, and also changed soil characteristics and altered wildlife 

habitat. To remedy these problems and restore these forest ecosystems to more nearly natural conditions, and 

maintain a viable cohort of old age-class trees, it will be necessary to thin out most of the postsettlement trees, 

manually remove heavy fuels from the base of large, old trees, and reintroduce periodic burning. 

Publication Journal of Sustainable Forestry 

Volume 2 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 153–181 


Journal Abbr J. Sustain. Forestry 

DOI 10.1300/J091v02n01_07 

ISSN 1054-9811 

URL http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1300/J091v02n01_07 

Archive http://library.eri.nau.edu/cgi-bin/library.cgi?e=q-01000-00---off-0erilibra--00-1----0-10-0---0---0direct-10-DC-- 

4-------0-1l--11-en-50---20-about-M.+M.+Moore--00-3-21-00-0-0-11-0-0utfZz-8-00& 

Extra Keywords: logging effect; pine forest; ponderosa; old-growth; restoration; simulation model. 



Category: General Publications 

Title: Postsettlement Changes in Natural Fire Regimes and Forest Structure: Ecological Restoration of Old-Growth Ponderosa Pine 

Forests 

Author: Covington, W.W., Moore, M.M. 

Subject: Ecological Restoration 

Date: 1994 

Type: Book 

Source: Ecological and Historical Perspectives 

Identifier: 153-181 

Publisher: The Haworth Press, Inc. 

Language: English 

(from: NAU (Northern Arizona University) School of Forestry Publication Library 

http://www2.for.nau.edu/PublicationLibrary/index.asp 

http://library.eri.nau.edu/cgi-bin/library.cgi?e=q-01000-00---off-0erilibra--00-1----0-10-0---0---0direct-10-DC--4-------0-1l--11-en- 

50---20-about-M.+M.+Moore--00-3-21-00-0-0-11-0-0utfZz-8-00&a=d&c=erilibra&srp=0&srn=0&cl=search& 

d=HASHdd92e6da703e4d7ec64887) 

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Potential alteration by climate change of the forest-fire regime in the boreal forest of central Yukon 

Territory 


Author V. M. McCoy 

Author Christopher R. Burn 

Abstract Statistical relations were obtained to describe the association between forest fires and climate for the Dawson 

and Mayo fire management districts, central Yukon Territory. Annual fire incidence, area burned, and seasonal 

fire severity rating were compared with summer observations of mean temperature, total precipitation, mean 

relative humidity, and mean wind speed. The relations were obtained by multiple regression and combined with 

regional scenarios of future climate from general circulation models. The strongest statistical associations for 

fire occurrence and area burned were with temperature and precipitation at Dawson. Depending on the 

scenario, the statistics suggest that the average annual fire occurrence and area burned may as much as double 

by 2069, but there may still be years with few fires. The maximum number of fires may increase by two-thirds 

over present levels, and the maximum area burned per summer may increase to more than three times the 

present value. Without incorporating changes in climate variability into the scenarios, the year-to-year 

variability in number of fires is not projected to increase, but the range in area burned per summer may rise by 

about 15%. 

Publication Arctic 

Volume 58 

Issue 3 

Pages 276–285 


Journal Abbr Arctic 

ISSN 0004-0843 

URL http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/429 

Extra Keywords: forest fire; wildfire; climate; climate change; Yukon Territory. 



Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change 




Abstract Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United 

States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon 

dioxide (CO₂). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis approach, was used to generate 

suitable habitat, or potential future distributions, of 80 common tree species for each scenario. The model 

assumes that the vegetation and climate are in equilibrium with no barriers to species migration. Combinations 

of the individual species model outcomes allowed estimates of species richness (from among the 80 species) and 

forest type (from simple rules) for each of 2100 counties in the eastern United States. Average species richness 

across all counties may increase slightly with climatic change. This increase tends to be larger as the average 

temperature of the climate change scenario increases. Dramatic changes in the distribution of potential forest 

types were modeled. All five scenarios project the extirpation of the spruce-fir forest types from New England. 

Outputs from only the two least severe scenarios retain aspen-birch, and they are largely reduced. Maplebeech-birch 

also shows a large reduction in area under all scenarios. By contrast, oak-hickory and oak-pine 

types were modeled to increase by 34% and 290%, respectively, averaged over the five scenarios. Although 

many assumptions are made, these modeled outcomes substantially agree with a limited number of predictions 

from researchers using paleoecological data or other models. 


Volume 4 

Issue 3 

Pages 186–199 


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DOI 10.1007/s10021-001-0003-6 

ISSN 1432-9840 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/gacgvb8d4mjcf05v/ 

Extra Keywords: climate change; species richness; forest types; GIS; statistical model; eastern United States. 



Potential impacts of climate change on fire regimes in the tropics based on MAGICC and a GISS 

GCM-derived lightning model 


Author Johann Georg Goldammer 

Author Colin Price 

Abstract Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic impacts of contemporary fires in tropical 

vegetation have received increasing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, about the 

impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildland fires. This paper summarizes the main known 

interactions of fire, vegetation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate 

change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in order to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical 

forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of 

tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities 

dominated by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on 

tropical fire regimes are investigated using a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the 

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). 


Volume 39 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 273–296 



DOI 10.1023/A:1005371923658 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/v26qv0um20054g75/ 

Extra Keywords: fire regime; fire scenarios; climate change; tropical vegetation. 



Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US 




Abstract Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree 

species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine 

environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat 

under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Potential shifts in suitable 

habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 

environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to 

devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the 

current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th 

meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate 

scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When 

this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 

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10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, 

Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. 

Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 

species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general 

agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations 

occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their 

severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled 

here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations. 


Volume 155 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 205–222 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(01)00559-X 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: climate change; eastern US; tree species migration; regression tree analysis. 



Potentially limited detectability of short-term changes in boreal fire regimes: A simulation study 


Author Juha M. Metsaranta 

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase area burned in the boreal plains ecozone of Canada in the early 21st 

century (2001–50). I examined the influence of inter-annual variability in area burned and short observed time 

series on the probability of detecting if an increase has occurred, using a null model of present and future fire 

regimes. A wide range of fire cycles are consistent with annual area burned in the late 20th century (1959–99). 

Fire cycles estimated from the reciprocal of the average annual burn fraction over a 50-year period are not very 

precise, and overestimate the fire cycle if years with large annual area burned have not recently occurred. Under 

the default assumptions, the probability of detecting a doubling of annual area burned during 2001–50 is 73% if 

it occurred instantaneously, but only 31% if it occurred gradually. Imprecise estimates and uncertainty in the 

ability to detect changes in fire cycles poses challenges for implementing aspects of sustainable forest 

management. Alternate empirical or model-based statistics, such as return periods for annual areas burned of a 

given magnitude, may be useful for inferring frequencies and magnitudes of large fire years that have not yet 

been observed. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1140–1146 



DOI 10.1071/WF10037 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Potentially limited detectability of short-term changes in boreal fire regimes 


Extra Keywords: climate change; extreme fire; log normal model; natural disturbance emulation; return period. 



Pre-colonial (A.D. 1100-1600) sedimentation related to prehistoric maize agriculture and climate 

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change in eastern North America 


Author Gary E. Stinchcomb 

Author Timothy C. Messner 

Author Steven G. Driese 

Author Lee C. Nordt 

Author R. Michael Stewart 

Abstract Despite the importance of understanding the effect of land use on floodplains in eastern North America, few 

studies have directly addressed the possibility and extent of prehistoric indigenous land use on floodplain 

development. Here we report geoarchaeological evidence of increasing floodplain sedimentation and prehistoric 

land-use intensification in the Delaware River Valley (eastern United States) during the Medieval Climate 

Anomaly–Little Ice Age transition. The evidence of this anthropogenic sedimentation event, documented 

throughout eastern North America, is designated here as pre-colonial sediment (PCS), ca. A.D. 1100–1600. The 

data demonstrate that the combined effects of prehistoric land use and climate change affected eastern North 

American floodplain development several hundred years prior to the onset of major European settlement. 


Volume 39 

Issue 4 

Pages 363-366 



DOI 10.1130/G31596.1 

ISSN 0091-7613 




Pre-Columbian Native American use of fire on southern Appalachian landscapes 






Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 1010–1014 



DOI 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.96338.x 

ISSN 0888-8892 




Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in 

the mixedwood boreal forest 



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Author Steve G. Cumming 


Abstract Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state 

of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily 

Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with 

annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in centraleastern 

Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial 

regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity 

Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire 

initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ 

(2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted 

initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to 

be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by 

lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of 

lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire 

weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. 

Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a 

substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 

2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these 

estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by 

vegetation and fire management. 


Volume 92 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 83-97 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9460-7 

ISSN 0165-0009 




Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States 




Abstract Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth’s biota, including a large 

redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in 

the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were 

assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The 

method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/or migrate under a 

changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and 

species assemblages for >2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for 

>100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. 

RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships, which were then used 

to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of 

climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO₂. Validation measures prove the utility of 

the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased 

confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we 

show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an 

additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending 

on the global change scenario used, 4–9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. 

Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 

100 km to the north, including seven that could move >250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual 

species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes. 

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Volume 68 

Issue 4 

Pages 465–485 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0465:PAOTSF]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9615 

URL www.jstor.org/stable/2657150 

Archive http://nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/7930 

Extra Keywords: climate change; envelope analysis; forest inventory; geographic information systems (GIS); global 

change; landscape ecology; predictive vegetation mapping; regression tree analysis (RTA); species-environment 

relationships; tree species distribution; tree species migration; tree species ranges. 



Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales 



Author Sean T. Michaletz 


Abstract Accurate process-based prediction of climate change effects on wildfires requires coupling processes across 

orders of magnitude of time and space scales, because climate dynamic processes operate at relatively large 

scales (e.g., hemispherical and centennial), but fire behavior processes operate at relatively small scales (e.g., 

molecules and microseconds). In this review, we outline some of the current understanding of the processes by 

which climate/meteorology controls wildfire behavior by focusing on four critical stages of wildfire 

development: (1) fuel drying, (2) ignition, (3) spread, and (4) extinction. We identify some key mechanisms that 

are required for predicting climate change effects on fires, as well as gaps in our understanding of the processes 

linking climate and fires. It is currently not possible to make accurate predictions of climate change effects on 

wildfires due to the limited understanding of the linkage between general circulation model outputs and the 

local-scale meteorology to which fire behavior processes respond. 


Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 99-112 



DOI 10.1002/wcc.92 

ISSN 1757-7780 

URL http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC92.html 



Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change 





Author Stephen N. Matthews 

Author Raymond J. O'Connor 

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Abstract Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate 

change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, 

we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of 

distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also 

found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among 

narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these 

species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including 

narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of 

individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction. 


Volume 87 

Issue 7 

Pages 1611–1615 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1611:PEAARO]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 

URL www.jstor.org/stable/20069119 

Extra Keywords: climate and environmental models; climate change; distribution breadth; eastern United States; 

endemic; extinction; prediction uncertainty; regression tree; vulnerability. 



Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia 


Author Eric J. Gustafson 

Author Anatoly Z. Shvidenko 

Author Brian R. Sturtevant 

Author Robert M. Scheller 

Abstract Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate 

change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, 

affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal 

forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes 

(succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber 

harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of 

climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape 

pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber 

harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally 

increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime 

generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly 

changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We 

concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian 

landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects 

of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest 

and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and 

insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly 

alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation. 


Volume 20 

Issue 3 

Pages 700-715 



DOI 10.1890/08-1693.1 

ISSN 1051-0761 

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URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-1693.1? 

prevSearch=%5Ball%3A+10.1890%2F08-1693.1%5D&… 

Archive http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/34928 

Extra Keywords: aboveground live biomass; boreal forests; climate; fire; forest fragmentation; global change; insect 

disturbance; LANDIS-II; timber harvest. 



Predicting maximum tree heights and other traits from allometric scaling and resource limitations 


Author Christopher P. Kempes 

Author Geoffrey B. West 

Author Kelly Crowell 

Author Michelle Girvan 

Abstract Terrestrial vegetation plays a central role in regulating the carbon and water cycles, and adjusting planetary 

albedo. As such, a clear understanding and accurate characterization of vegetation dynamics is critical to 

understanding and modeling the broader climate system. Maximum tree height is an important feature of forest 

vegetation because it is directly related to the overall scale of many ecological and environmental quantities and 

is an important indicator for understanding several properties of plant communities, including total standing 

biomass and resource use. We present a model that predicts local maximal tree height across the entire 

continental United States, in good agreement with data. The model combines scaling laws, which encode the 

average, base-line behavior of many tree characteristics, with energy budgets constrained by local resource 

limitations, such as precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. In addition to predicting maximum tree height 

in an environment, our framework can be extended to predict how other tree traits, such as stomatal density, 

depend on these resource constraints. Furthermore, it offers predictions for the relationship between height and 

whole canopy albedo, which is important for understanding the Earth's radiative budget, a critical component of 

the climate system. Because our model focuses on dominant features, which are represented by a small set of 

mechanisms, it can be easily integrated into more complicated ecological or climate models. 


Volume 6 

Issue 6 

Pages e20551 (10 p.) 




ISSN 1932-6203 




Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire 

weather 



Author Janet S. Cohn 


Author Michael Bedward 

Author Christopher Lucas 

Abstract The probability of large-fire (≥1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical 

records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on 

large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two 

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areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) 

(ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of 

large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The 

preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire 

ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the 

connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast 

may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 

yielded predictions of a 20–84% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model. 


Volume 18 

Issue 8 

Pages 932-943 



DOI 10.1071/WF08133 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: climate change; drought; fire danger; fire weather indices. 



Preface: Four degrees and beyond: The potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and 

its implications 


Author Mark New 



Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 4-5 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0304 

ISSN 1364-503X 




Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands 



Author Robert E. Martin 

Author Nicholas E. Clinton 

Abstract In the majority of US political settings wildland fire is still discussed as a negative force. Lacking from current 

wildfire discussions are estimates of the spatial extent of fire and their resultant emissions before the influences 

of Euro-American settlement and this is the focus of this work. We summarize the literature on fire history (fire 

rotation and fire return intervals) and past Native American burning practices to estimate past fire occurrence 

by vegetation type. Once past fire intervals were established they were divided into the area of each 

corresponding vegetation type to arrive at estimates of area burned annually. Finally, the First Order Fire Effects 

Model was used to estimate emissions. Approximately 1.8 million ha burned annually in California 

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prehistorically (pre 1800). Our estimate of prehistoric annual area burned in California is 88% of the total 

annual wildfire area in the entire US during a decade (1994–2004) characterized as “extreme” regarding 

wildfires. The idea that US wildfire area of approximately two million ha annually is extreme is certainly a 20th 

or 21st century perspective. Skies were likely smoky much of the summer and fall in California during the 

prehistoric period. Increasing the spatial extent of fire in California is an important management objective. The 

best methods to significantly increase the area burned is to increase the use of wildland fire use (WFU) and 

appropriate management response (AMR) suppression fire in remote areas. Political support for increased use of 

WFU and AMR needs to occur at local, state, and federal levels because increasing the spatial scale of fire will 

increase smoke and inevitability, a few WFU or AMR fires will escape their predefined boundaries. 


Volume 251 

Issue 3 

Pages 205–216 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2007.06.005 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: wildfire; fire regime; fire policy; fire suppression; fire rotation; smoke; air resources; air quality; 

particulates; fire exclusion; carbon. 



Prehistoric human use of fire, the eastern agricultural complex, and Appalachian oak-chestnut forests: 

Paleoecology of Cliff Palace Pond, Kentucky 




Author Cecil R. Ison 

Author William E. Sharp 

Author Kristen J. Gremillion 

Abstract Fossil pollen assemblages from Cliff Palace Pond, Kentucky, characterize changes in forest composition through 

the past 9,500 years of the Holocene. Early-Holocene spruce and northern white cedar stands were replaced by 

mixed mesophytic forests after 7300 B.P. Hemlock declined around 4800 B.P., and eastern red cedar became 

locally important. After 3000 B.P, mixed oak-chestnut and pine forests were dominant. The fossil charcoal 

record from Cliff Palace Pond demonstrates that Late Archaic and Woodland peoples cleared forest gaps to 

cultivate native plants in the Eastern Agricultural Complex and that anthropogenic fires served to increase 

populations of fire-tolerant oaks, chestnut, and pines in upland forests of the northern Cumberland Plateau. 

Publication American Antiquity 

Volume 63 

Issue 2 

Pages 263–278 


Journal Abbr Am. Antiquity 

ISSN 0002-7316 

Short Title Prehistoric human use of fire, the eastern agricultural complex, and Appalachian oak-chestnut forests 




Prehistoric Native Americans and ecological change: Human ecosystems in eastern North America since 

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the Pleistocene 

Type Book 



Abstract Description: There has long been controversy between ecologists and archaeologists over the role of prehistoric 

Native Americans as agents of ecological change. Using ecological and archaeological data from the woodlands 

of eastern North America, Paul and Hazel Delcourt show that Holocene human ecosystems are complex 

adaptive systems in which humans have interacted with the environment on a series of spatial and time scales. 

Their work therefore has important implications for the conservation of biological diversity and for ecological 

restoration today. It will be a thought-provoking read for ecologists and archaeologists alike. 

Edition illustrated, 1st edition 





ISBN 0521662702, 9780521662703 

Short Title Prehistoric Native Americans and Ecological Change 

URL http://www.cambridge.org/gb/knowledge/isbn/item5708443/? 

site_locale=en_GB 

Archive http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9780511525520 



Preliminary vegetation maps of the world since the last glacial maximum: An aid to archaeological 

understanding 


Author Jonathan M. Adams 

Author Hugues Faure 

Abstract A set of preliminary, broad-scale vegetation map reconstructions for use by archaeologists and anthropologists is 

presented here for the world at the last glacial maximum (18,000 years ago), the early Holocene (8000 years 

ago), and the mid-Holocene (5000 years ago). For comparison we also give "present-potential" maps which may 

be regarded as approximating the late Holocene vegetation as it would--or might--be without agricultural 

modification. The maps were produced through consultation with an extensive network of experts and a range 

of literature and map sources. Accompanying each regional map is a bibliography detailing the principal 

literature sources of evidence on Late Quaternary palaeovegetation and climates. The maps presented here are 

not intended as the "last word" on the distribution of vegetation at each time slice--they are merely a 

preliminary attempt at appraisal of current knowledge and opinion. Nevertheless, together with the 

accompanying citation summary they should provide a valuable and readily accessible source of information on 

current opinion in the Quaternary community. It is also hoped that the maps will themselves act as a catalyst for 

archaeologists to use their own data to contribute to the broader climatic/palaeovegetational picture. 

Publication Journal of Archaeological Science 

Volume 24 

Issue 7 

Pages 623-647 


Journal Abbr J. Archaeol. Sci. 

DOI 10.1006/jasc.1996.0146 

ISSN 0305-4403 

Short Title Preliminary vegetation maps of the world since the last glacial maximum 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WH8-45M2V58-1C/2/99fdcced3f3df85715f14e74881368e8 

Extra Keywords: vegetation; glacial maximum; Holocene; atlas; human ecology. 


453 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Prescribed burning in the South: Trends, purpose, and barriers 


Author Terry K. Haines 

Author Rodney L. Busby 

Author David A. Cleaves 

Abstract The results of a survey of fire management officials concerning historical and projected prescribed burning 

activity in the South is reported. Prescribed burning programs on USDA Forest Service and private and 

state-owned lands are described in terms of area burned by ownership and state, intended resource benefits, 

barriers to expanded burning, and optimum burning area needed to achieve resource management goals. More 

than 4.1 million ac/yr of pine-type forest were burned between 1985 and 1994, about 6.5% of the area in 

pine-type forest per year. 

Publication Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 

Volume 25 

Issue 4 

Pages 149–153 


Journal Abbr South. J. Appl. For. 

ISSN 0148-4419 

Short Title Prescribed burning in the South 

URL http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/sjaf/2001/00000025/00000004/art00001 


Extra Keywords: air quality; endangered species; hazard reduction; ecosystem management; reforestation. 



Prescribing fire in eastern oak forests: Is time running out? 



Abstract Before European settlement, vast areas of the eastern US deciduous forest were dominated by oak species. 

Evidence indicates that periodic understory fire was an important ecological factor in the historical development 

of oak forests. During European settlement of the late 19th and early 20th century, much of the eastern United 

States was impacted by land-clearing, extensive timber harvesting, severe fires, the chestnut blight, and then fire 

suppression and intensive deer browsing. These activities had the greatest negative impact on the 

once-dominant white oak, while temporarily promoting the expansion of other oaks such as red oak and 

chestnut oak. More recently, however, recruitment of all the dominant upland oaks waned on all but the most 

xeric sites. Mixed-mesophytic and later successional hardwood species, such as red maple, sugar maple, black 

birch, beech, black gum and black cherry, are aggressively replacing oak. The leaf litter of these replacement 

species is less flammable and more rapidly mineralized than that of the upland oaks, reinforcing the lack of fire. 

The trend toward increases in nonoak tree species will continue in fire-suppressed forests, rendering them less 

combustible for forest managers who wish to restore natural fires regimes. This situation greatly differs from the 

western United States, where fire suppression during the 20th century has made a variety of conifer-dominated 

forests more prone to stand-replacing fire. 

Publication Northern Journal of Applied Forestry 

Volume 22 

Issue 3 

Pages 190–196 


Journal Abbr North. J. Appl. For. 

ISSN 0742-6348 

454 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Short Title Prescribing Fire in Eastern Oak Forests 

URL http://saf.publisher.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/njaf/2005/00000022/00000003/art00007 

Extra Keywords: historical ecology; disturbance; succession; fire suppression; oak replacement. 



Presettlement and present forest vegetation in northern Vermont with special reference to Chittenden 

County 


Author Thomas G. Siccama 

Abstract The trees recorded in the original land surveys of the township lines of northern Vermont (ca. 1783-1787) and 

the lotting surveys within the townships of Chittenden Co. (ca. 1763-1802) have been used to study the 

composition and map the distribution of the presettlement forests. Forest composition was measured in 1962 at 

193 points in Chittenden Co. where original survey data was available, and was compared to presettlement 

composition. Several general regions of forest were delimited in northern Vermont based primarily on the 

distribution of pine, hemlock, spruce and fir. A gradient of relative abundance of these conifer species was 

evident from pine in the Champlain Valley and Connecticut River Valley to hemlock on the midslope uplands 

and fir and spruce in the mountains and northeastern highlands of the state. A map of probable presettlement 

vegetation of Chittenden Co. was prepared based on geographical distribution of species of witness trees, 

elevation, soil-substrate types, topography, and early historical records. The outstanding feature of the 

presettlement forest was the great abundance of beech. Beech ranged from more than 60% of the species 

composition on the upland midelevation soils in Chittenden Co. to 13% on the spruce-fir-dominated highlands in 

northeastern Vermont. Average beech abundance in hardwood forests was about 40%, which is in accord with 

the findings of other studies based on witness trees in New York, Pennsylvania and north central states. Beech 

made up over 40% of the trees in the presettlement forest, but in 1962 it comprised only 3-5%. This is probably 

due to the slow but persistent pattern of regeneration of beech in stands by root sprouts and the formation of 

clones resulting in its maximum development in old-age, undisturbed forests. Comparison of pre-settlement and 

present forest composition indicated no outstanding changes in the presence or absence of species within 

soil-substrate types or elevation belts, but there was a distinctive overall increase in the importance of pine, 

hardhack and poplar in the present forests on the intermediate elevations which reflects the stages of secondary 

succession on much abandoned farmland throughout Chittenden Co. Surveyor bias for selection of some species 

over others as witness trees was investigated. A study of stake-to-tree distances which could reveal possible 

selection due to greater distances to those species which were being favored did not indicate any bias and the 

surveyors apparently took the tree nearest the stake which met whatever diameter and state-of-vigor 

requirements the surveyors were using. The number of witness trees per unit area in Chittenden Co. was similar 

to the number used in studies in other areas in the north central states. 


Volume 85 

Issue 1 

Pages 153–172 



ISSN 0003-0031 


Archive The University of Notre Dame 



Presettlement fire frequency regimes of the United States: A first approximation (Chapter 4) (In Studies 

in landscape fire ecology and presettlement vegetation of the southeastern United States) 

Type Thesis 

Author Cecil C. III Frost 

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Abstract It is now apparent that fire once played some role in shaping all but the wettest, the most arid, or the most 

fire-sheltered plant communities of the United States. Understanding the role of fire in structuring vegetation is 

critical for land management choices that will, for example, prevent extinction of rare species and natural 

vegetation types. Pre-European fire frequency can be reconstructed in two main ways. First is by dating fire 

scars on old trees, using a composite fire scar chronology. Where old fire-scarred trees are lacking, as in much 

of the eastern U.S., a second approach is possible. This is a landscape method, using a synthesis of 

physiographic factors such as topography and land surface form, alon with fire compartment size, historical 

vegetation records, fire frequency indicator species, lightning ignition data, and remnant natural vegetation. 

Such kinds of information, along with a survey of published fire history studies, were used to construct a map of 

presettlement fire frequency regions of the conterminous U.S. The map represents frequcency in the most 

fire-exposed parts pf the landscape. Original fire-return intervals in different parts of the U.S. ranged from 

nearly every years to more than 700 years. Vegetation types were distributes accordingly along the fire 

frequency master gradient. A fire regime classification system in proposed that involves, rather than a focus on 

trees, a consideration of all vegetaion layers. 

Type Ph.D. Dissertation Chapter 

University University of North Carolina 

Place Chapel Hill, N.C. 

Date 2000 

# of Pages 35 p. (p.163-197) (in 620 p.) 

URL http://www.bio.unc.edu/faculty/peet/lab/theses/Frost_PhD_2000.pdf 

Loc. in Archive Chaple Hill, NC: University of North Carolina 

Extra Keywords: fire history; fire regime classification; presettlement fire frequency; site fire frequency; fire 

compartments; fire frequency mapping; fire effects; presettlement vegetaion; rare plant species. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Frost, Cecil C. III. 2000. Presettlement fire frequency regimes of the United States: a first approximation (Chapter 4) In Frost, Cecil C. 

III., Studies in landscape fire ecology and presettlement vegetation of the southeastern United States. p.163-197. Ph.D. dissertation, 

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C. 

Frost, Cecil Carlysle, III. 1998. Presettlement fire frequency regimes of the United States: a first approximation. In Teresa L. Pruden 

and Leonard A. Brennan, (eds.). Fire in ecosystem management: shifting the paradigm from suppression to prescription. Tall Timbers 

Fire Ecology Conference Proceedings, No. 20. Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL. 

Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in Southeastern Coastal Plain forest ecosystems 


Author Andrew D. Bailey 

Author Robert Mickler 

Author Cecil Frost 

Abstract Fire-adapted forest ecosystems make up 95 percent of the historic Coastal Plain vegetation types in the 

Southeastern United States. Fire suppression over the last century has altered the species composition of these 

ecosystems, increased fuel loads, and increased wildfire risk. Prescribed fire is one management tool used to 

reduce fuel loading and restore fire-adapted species, but little information exists on the presettlement extent and 

location of fire-dependent ecosystems at a level of detail useful to guide land management decisions at the local 

spatial scale. In an effort to close this knowledge gap, the principles of landscape fire ecology have been applied 

to develop a detailed presettlement fire regime map for ~200,000 acres of Coastal Plain ecosystems. Factors 

evaluated include the effects of fire compartment size in the original landscape, fire barriers, fire filters, 

prevailing wind direction during fire season, topographic and soil factors affecting fire intensity, fire frequency, 

fire spread, and fire effects on vegetation. The fire regime map was then combined with remnant fire-adapted 

vegetation surveys, historic aerial photography, digital elevation models, and soil survey information to create a 

map of presettlement vegetation. This map is being used to develop prescribed burning plans that restore 

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original fire regimes, guide the use of prescribed fire as a management tool, restore fire-adapted vegetation 

structure and understory species diversity for threatened and endangered species, and enhance ecosystem 

sustainability. 

Date 26-30 March 2007 

Proceedings Title The Fire Environment—Innovations, Management, and Policy: Proceedings of a Conference 

Conference Name Fire Behavior and Fuels 

Place Destin, FL. 

Publisher USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD. September 2007. Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort 

Collins, CO 

Pages 275–286 


Extra Keywords: wildland fire management; vegetation mapping; Coastal Plain; landscape fire ecology; presettlement 

vegetation. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Bailey, Andrew D.; Mickler, Robert; Frost, Cecil. 2007. Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in southeastern coastal 

plain forest ecosystems. Pages 275-286 In: Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne (comps.). The fire environment-innovations, management, 

and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March 2007; Destin, FL. Proceedings RMRS-P-46CD. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 

Probability of afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high 

evaporation 


Author Kirsten L. Findell 

Author Pierre Gentine 

Author Benjamin R. Lintner 

Author Christopher Kerr 

Abstract Moisture and heat fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere form a critical nexus between surface 

hydrology and atmospheric processes, particularly those relevant to precipitation. Although current theory 

suggests that soil moisture generally has a positive impact on subsequent precipitation, individual studies have 

shown support both for and against this positive feedback. Broad assessment of the coupling between soil 

moisture and evapotranspiration, and evapotranspiration and precipitation, has been limited by a lack of 

large-scale observations. Quantification of the influence of evapotranspiration on precipitation remains 

particularly uncertain. Here, we develop and apply physically based, objective metrics for quantifying the 

impacts of surface evaporative and sensible heat fluxes on the frequency and intensity of convective rainfall 

during summer, using North American reanalysis data. We show that high evaporation enhances the probability 

of afternoon rainfall east of the Mississippi and in Mexico. Indeed, variations in surface fluxes lead to changes 

in afternoon rainfall probability of between 10 and 25% in these regions. The intensity of rainfall, by contrast, is 

largely insensitive to surface fluxes. We suggest that local surface fluxes represent an important trigger for 

convective rainfall in the eastern United States and Mexico during the summer, leading to a positive 

evaporation–precipitation feedback. 


Volume 4 

Issue 7 

Pages 434–439 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1174 

ISSN 1752-0894 

457 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM





Productivity of southern pine plantations: Where are we and how did we get here? 


Author John A. Stanturf 

Author Robert C. Kellison 

Author F. S. Broerman 

Author Stephen B. Jones 

Abstract The productivity and extensiveness of southern forests in general, and pine plantations in particular, has placed 

the South at the forefront of production forestry in the United States. That industrial loblolly pine plantations are 

very productive is a result of researchers and managers developing and applying increasingly intensive 

silvicultural practices. Our estimates of the percentage of productivity gains attributable to improvements made 

in individual management practices are based on our collective experience, anecdotal information, and 

discussions with knowledgeable colleagues. Such informed judgments are based on potential productivity 

revealed by designed experiments coupled with estimates of how well technology has been implemented. 

Publication Journal of forestry 

Volume 101 

Issue 3 

Pages 26–31 

Date April/May 2003 


ISSN 0022-1201 

Short Title Productivity of southern pine plantations 

URL http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/5461 

Extra Keywords: economics; plantations; silviculture; timber markets. 



Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD 


Author John W. Williams 

Author Stephen T. Jackson 


Abstract Key risks associated with projected climate trends for the 21st century include the prospects of future climate 

states with no current analog and the disappearance of some extant climates. Because climate is a primary 

control on species distributions and ecosystem processes, novel 21st-century climates may promote formation of 

novel species associations and other ecological surprises, whereas the disappearance of some extant climates 

increases risk of extinction for species with narrow geographic or climatic distributions and disruption of 

existing communities. Here we analyze multimodel ensembles for the A2 and B1 emission scenarios produced 

for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with the goal of identifying 

regions projected to experience (i) high magnitudes of local climate change, (ii) development of novel 

21st-century climates, and/or (iii) the disappearance of extant climates. Novel climates are projected to develop 

primarily in the tropics and subtropics, whereas disappearing climates are concentrated in tropical montane 

regions and the poleward portions of continents. Under the high-end A2 scenario, 12–39% and 10–48% of the 

Earth's terrestrial surface may respectively experience novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. 

Corresponding projections for the low-end B1 scenario are 4–20% and 4–20%. Dispersal limitations increase 

the risk that species will experience the loss of extant climates or the occurrence of novel climates. There is a 

close correspondence between regions with globally disappearing climates and previously identified biodiversity 

hotspots; for these regions, standard conservation solutions (e.g., assisted migration and networked reserves) 

may be insufficient to preserve biodiversity. 

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Volume 104 

Issue 14 

Pages 5738 -5742 

Date April 3, 2007 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606292104 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: biodiversity hotspots; climate change; dispersal limitations; global-change ecology; ecological 

surprises. 



Prospects for decadal climate prediction 


Author Noel S. Keenlyside 

Author Jin Ba 

Abstract During the last decade, global surface temperatures did not increase as rapidly as in the preceding decades. 

Although relatively small compared to the observed centennial scale global warming, it has renewed interest in 

understanding and even predicting climate on time scales of decades, and sparked a community initiative on 

near-term prediction that will feature in the fifth intergovernmental panel on climate change assessment report. 

Decadal prediction, however, is in its infancy, with only a few publications existing. This article has three aims. 

The first is to make the case for decadal prediction. Decadal fluctuations in global climate similar to that of 

recent decades were observed during the past century. Associated with large regional changes in precipitation 

and climate extremes, they are of socioeconomic importance. Climate models, which capture some aspects of 

observed decadal variability, indicate that such variations might be partly predictable. The second aim is to 

describe the major challenges to skilful decadal climate prediction. One is poor understanding of mechanisms of 

decadal climate variability, with climate models showing little agreement. Sparse observations in the past, 

particularly in the ocean, are also a limiting factor to developing and testing of initialization and prediction 

systems. The third aim is to stress that despite promising initial results, decadal prediction is in a highly 

experimental stage, and care is needed in interpreting results and utilizing data from such experiments. In the 

long-term, decadal prediction has the potential to improve models, reduce uncertainties in climate change 

projections, and be of socioeconomic benefit. 


Volume 1 

Issue 5 

Pages 627-635 

Date September/October 2010 


DOI 10.1002/wcc.69 

ISSN 17577780 




Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two 

millennia 



Author Zhihua Zhang 

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Author Sonya K. Miller 

Author Scott Rutherford 

Author Fenbiao Nicolussi 

Abstract Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) 

(2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we 

reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly 

expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and 

complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. 

Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are 

likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years 

whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the 

past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries 

is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit 

still not reaching recent levels. 


Volume 105 

Issue 36 

Pages 13252-13257 

Date September 9, 2008 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0805721105 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: climate change; global warming. 



Pyrogeography: Understanding the ecological niche of fire 





Abstract With insights into the controls of past, current and potential future fire patterns, there is great potential to 

integrate a modern understanding of pyrogeography with paleoecological studies. 


Volume 18 

Issue 2 

Pages 83-85 



ISSN 1811-1602 

URL http://pages-142.unibe.ch/products/newsletters/2010-2/Special%20Section/Moritz_2010-2(83-85).pdf 





Quantifying fire severity, carbon, and nitrogen emissions in Alaska's boreal forest 

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Author Leslie A. Boby 

Author Edward A. G. Schuur 


Author David Verbyla 

Author Jill F. Johnstone 

Abstract The boreal region stores a large proportion of the world's terrestrial carbon (C) and is subject to high-intensity, 

stand-replacing wildfires that release C and nitrogen (N) stored in biomass and soils through combustion. While 

severity and extent of fires drives overall emissions, methods for accurately estimating fire severity are poorly 

tested in this unique region where organic soil combustion is responsible for a large proportion of total 

emissions. We tested a method using adventitious roots on black spruce trees (Picea mariana) in combination 

with canopy allometry to reconstruct prefire organic soil layers and canopy biomass in boreal black spruce 

forests of Alaska (USA), thus providing a basis for more accurately quantifying fire severity levels. We 

calibrated this adventitious-root-height method in unburned spruce stands and then tested it by comparing our 

biomass and soils estimates reconstructed in burned stands with actual prefire stand measurements. We applied 

this approach to 38 black spruce stands burned in 2004 in Alaska, where we measured organic soil and stand 

characteristics and estimated the amount of soil and canopy biomass, as well as C and N pools, consumed by 

fire. These high-intensity quantitative estimates of severity were significantly correlated to a semiquantitative 

visual rapid assessment tool, the composite burn index (CBI). This index has proved useful for assessing fire 

severity in forests in the western United States but has not yet been widely tested in the boreal forest. From our 

study, we conclude that using postfire measurements of adventitious roots on black spruce trees in combination 

with soils and tree data can be used to reconstruct prefire organic soil depths and biomass pools, providing 

accurate estimates of fire severity and emissions. Furthermore, using our quantitative reconstruction we show 

that CBI is a reasonably good predictor of biomass and soil C loss at these sites, and it shows promise for rapidly 

estimating fire severity across a wide range of boreal black spruce forest types, especially where the use of 

high-intensity measurements may be limited by cost and time. 


Volume 20 

Issue 6 

Pages 1633-1647 



DOI 10.1890/08-2295.1 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: adventitious roots; Alaska; USA; allometric equations; black spruce; carbon emissions; forest fire; 

nitrogen; organic layer depth; Picea mariana; soil carbon; surface fuel consumption. 



Quantifying the fire regime attributes of severity and spatial complexity using field and imagery data 

Type Thesis 

Author Andrea Elizabeth Thode 

Abstract Fire regimes are a useful way to classify, describe and categorize the pattern of fire occurrence through time and 

space and can be described using seven fire regime attributes: seasonality, frequency, size, spatial complexity, 

intensity, severity and type. Over the last 20 years, assessing different methods for mapping burn severity using 

remote sensing has been an active area of research with good results. This work uses remote sensing to quantify 

the fire regime attributes of severity and spatial complexity for a 19-year time period in Yosemite National Park. 

Field data collected from 2001--2003 in one year-old wildfires were used to select a subset of ten field variables 

that best relate to burn severity imagery values. The field data were then used to classify and assess seven 

different indices that have been used to map burn severity with Landsat data, and a generalized classification for 

burn severity was created and tested against classifications created for individual fires. The generalized 

classification showed no significant difference from the individual fire classifications, and the top four burn 

severity mapping indices showed no significant difference in their final classifications for burn severity. One of 

the top four indices was chosen to map burn severity for 99 large fires in Yosemite National Park that burned 

between 1984 and 2003. The resultant burn severity atlas was used to quantify the fire regime attributes of 

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severity and spatial complexity. These current distributions of severity and spatial complexity are compared to 

historic, theoretical distributions and discussed. This study is a first attempt at quantifying the distribution of 

effects by fire regime types for a large landscape over a longer time period. As this process is refined and 

combined with other fire regime attributes, a new set of valuable information will be available for researchers 

and land mangers. This information can be used to understand how fire regimes have changed from the past and 

how we might be able to change them in the future. 


University University of California, Davis 

Place Davis, CA. 

Date 2005 


URL http://gradworks.umi.com/32/03/3203609.html 

Extra Keywords: fire; burn severity. 



Quaternary landscape ecology: Relevant scales in space and time 




Abstract Two primary goals of landscape ecologists are to (1) evaluate changes in ecological pattern and process on 

natural landscapes through time and (2) determine the ecological consequences of transforming natural 

land-scapes to cultural ones. Paleoecological techniques can be used to reconstruct past landscapes and their 

changes through time; use of paleoecological methods of investigation in combination with geomorphic and 

paleoethnobiological data, historical records, and shorter-term ecological data sets makes it possible to integrate 

long-term ecological pattern and process on a nested series of temporal and spatial scales. lsquoNatural 

experimentsrsquo of the past can be used to test alternative hypotheses about the relative influences of 

environmental change, biological interactions, and human activities in structuring biotic communities within 

landscape mosaics. On the absolute time scale of the Quaternary Period, spanning the past 1.8 million years, 

current distributional ranges of the biota have taken shape and modern biotic communities have assembled. 

Quaternary environmental changes have influenced the development of natural landscapes over time scales of 

centuries to hundreds of thousands of years; human cultural evolution has resulted in the transformation of 

much of the biosphere from natural to cultural landscapes over the past 5,000 years. The Quaternary extends to 

and includes the present and the immediate future. Knowledge of landscape changes on a Quaternary time scale 

is essential to landscape ecologists who wish to have a context for predicting future trends on local, regional, 

and global scales. 


Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 23–44 



DOI 10.1007/BF00138906 

ISSN 0921-2973 

Short Title Quaternary landscape ecology 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/p18t17p74j01140l/ 

Extra Keywords: archaeology; hierarchy; long-term data sets; paleoecology; southeastern United States. 



Radiative forcing due to anthropogenic vegetation change based on MODIS surface albedo data 

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Author Gunnar Myhre 

Author Maria M. Kvalevåg 

Author Crystal B. Schaaf 

Abstract In this study we use the capabilities of the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land 

surface product to estimate the radiative forcing due to surface albedo changes caused by anthropogenic 

vegetation changes. We improve the representation of the present surface albedo by using data retrieved from 

MODIS. The change in surface albedo is based on the current vegetation land cover from MODIS, the MODIS 

surface albedos for those vegetation types, and a data set for potential natural vegetation. We arrive at a 

radiative forcing due to anthropogenic vegetation changes of −0.09 Wm⁻² since pre-agriculture times to present, 

weaker than most earlier published results for this climate forcing mechanism. This is mainly due to a lower 

surface albedo associated with cropland and further with the use of MODIS data to allow us to constrain the 

surface albedo change. 


Volume 32 

Issue 21 

Pages L21410 (4 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2005GL024004 

ISSN 0094-8276 




Rapid landscape transformation in South Island, New Zealand, following initial Polynesian settlement 


Author David B. McWethy 


Author Janet M. Wilmshurst 

Author Matt S. McGlone 

Author Mairie Fromont 

Author Xun Li 

Author Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall 

Author William O. Hobbs 

Author Sherilyn C. Fritz 


Abstract Humans have altered natural patterns of fire for millennia, but the impact of human-set fires is thought to have 

been slight in wet closed-canopy forests. In the South Island of New Zealand, Polynesians (Māori), who arrived 

700–800 calibrated years (cal y) ago, and then Europeans, who settled ∼150 cal y ago, used fire as a tool for 

forest clearance, but the structure and environmental consequences of these fires are poorly understood. 

High-resolution charcoal and pollen records from 16 lakes were analyzed to reconstruct the fire and vegetation 

history of the last 1,000 y. Diatom, chironomid, and element concentration data were examined to identify 

disturbance-related limnobiotic and biogeochemical changes within burned watersheds. At most sites, several 

high-severity fire events occurred within the first two centuries of Māori arrival and were often accompanied by 

a transformation in vegetation, slope stability, and lake chemistry. Proxies of past climate suggest that human 

activity alone, rather than unusually dry or warm conditions, was responsible for this increased fire activity. The 

transformation of scrub to grassland by Europeans in the mid-19th century triggered further, sometimes severe, 

watershed change, through additional fires, erosion, and the introduction of nonnative plant species. Alteration 

of natural disturbance regimes had lasting impacts, primarily because native forests had little or no previous 

history of fire and little resilience to the severity of burning. Anthropogenic burning in New Zealand highlights 

the vulnerability of closed-canopy forests to novel disturbance regimes and suggests that similar settings may be 

less resilient to climate-induced changes in the future. 


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Volume 107 

Issue 50 

Pages 21343-21348 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1011801107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: human impacts; land cover change; deforestation. 



Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years 



Author Renato Spahni 

Abstract The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems 

and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains 

difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing 

climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with 

rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the 

last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed 

with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO₂ and its radiative forcing occurred 

more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average 

rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO₂ but from the combination of CO₂ , CH₄ , and N₂O is 

larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, 

the decadal-to- century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the 

natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate 

change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 

22,000 years. 


Volume 105 

Issue 5 

Pages 1425-1430 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0707386105 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: climate change; global warming; greenhouse gas; ice core. 



RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 


Author Allison M. Thomson 

Author Katherine V. Calvin 

Author Steven J. Smith 

Author G. Page Kyle 

Author April Volke 

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Author Pralit Patel 

Author Sabrina Delgado-Arias 

Author Ben Bond-Lamberty 

Author Marshall A. Wise 

Author Leon E. Clarke 

Author James A. Edmonds 

Abstract Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m⁻² in 

the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model 

(GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-useland-cover 

in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate 

historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing 

pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target 

drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to 

the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also 

applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated 

future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to 

climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m⁻², 

the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system 

response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing. 



Pages 18 p. 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4 

ISSN 0165-0009 

Short Title RCP4.5 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/70114wmj1j12j4h2/ 



Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands 



Author Evan S. Kane 

Author Jennifer W. Harden 


Author Kristen L. Manies 

Author Elizabeth Hoy 


Abstract Climate change has increased the area affected by forest fires each year in boreal North America. Increases in 

burned area and fire frequency are expected to stimulate boreal carbon losses. However, the impact of wildfires 

on carbon emissions is also affected by the severity of burning. How climate change influences the severity of 

biomass burning has proved difficult to assess. Here, we examined the depth of ground-layer combustion in 178 

sites dominated by black spruce in Alaska, using data collected from 31 fire events between 1983 and 2005. We 

show that the depth of burning increased as the fire season progressed when the annual area burned was small. 

However, deep burning occurred throughout the fire season when the annual area burned was large. Depth of 

burning increased late in the fire season in upland forests, but not in peatland and permafrost sites. Simulations 

of wildfire-induced carbon losses from Alaskan black spruce stands over the past 60 years suggest that 

ground-layer combustion has accelerated regional carbon losses over the past decade, owing to increases in burn 

area and late-season burning. As a result, soils in these black spruce stands have become a net source of carbon 

to the atmosphere, with carbon emissions far exceeding decadal uptake. 


Volume 4 

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Issue 1 

Pages 27–31 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1027 

ISSN 1752-0894 




Recent advances in ecosystem-atmosphere interactions: An ecological perspective 



Abstract The atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems are fundamentally coupled on a variety of time–scales. On short 

time–scales, this bi–directional interaction is dominated by the rapid exchange of CO₂, water and energy 

between the atmosphere and the land surface; on long time–scales, the interaction involves changes in 

ecosystem structure and composition in response to changes in climate that feed back through biophysical and 

biogeochemical mechanisms to influence climate over decades and centuries. After briefly describing some 

early pioneering work, I focus this review on recent advances in understanding long–term ecosystem– 

atmosphere interactions through a discussion of three case studies. I then examine how efforts to assess the 

stability and resilience of ecosystem–atmosphere interactions over these long time–scales using Dynamic Global 

Vegetation Models are hampered by the presence of important functional diversity and heterogeneity within 

plant communities. Recent work illustrates how this issue can be addressed through the use of Structured 

Ecosystem Models that more accurately scale between the short–term physiological responses of individual 

plants and the long–term, large–scale dynamics of heterogeneous, functionally diverse ecosystems. 

Publication Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 

Volume 270 

Issue 1521 

Pages 1215-1227 


Journal Abbr Proc. R. Soc. B 

DOI 10.1098/rspb.2002.2251 

ISSN 0962-8452 

Short Title Recent advances in ecosystem-atmosphere interactions 

URL http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rspb.2002.2251 

Extra Keywords: atmospheric models; terrestrial ecosystem models; vegetation dynamics; climate change; 

land–atmosphere interactions; structured population models. 



Recent advances in the analysis and interpretation of sediment-charcoal records 




Author Paul D. Henne 

Author Ryan F. Kelly 

Abstract Numerical models and statistical analysis aid interpretation of fire history from sediment-charcoal records, 

allowing inferences into the causes of past fire-regime shifts through quantitative analyses and data-model 

comparisons. High-resolution charcoal records from lake sediments are an increasingly important proxy for 

understanding the characteristics and variability of past fire regimes (e.g., Gavin et al., 2007). Recent advances 

in simulating sediment-charcoal records have improved our understanding of this proxy and help guide data 

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analysis methods. With improved quantitative analyses, comparisons between fire-history records, other 

paleoenvironmental records and dynamic ecosystem models increasingly enable insights into the causal 

mechanisms controlling past fire regimes. 


Volume 18 

Issue 2 

Pages 57-59 



ISSN 1874-2130 

URL http://pages-142.unibe.ch/products/newsletters/2010-2/Special%20Section/Higuera_2010-2%2857-59%29.pdf 




Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region—Spatial and temporal 

patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska 




Abstract We used historic records from 1959–99 to explore fire regime characteristics at ecozone scales across the entire 

North American boreal region (NABR). Shifts in the NABR fire regime between the 1960s/70s and the 

1980s/90s were characterized by a doubling of annual burned area and more than a doubling of the frequency of 

larger fire years because of more large fire events (>1,000 km²). The proportion of total burned area from 

human-ignited fires decreased over this same time period, while the proportion of burning during the early and 

late- growing-seasons increased. Trends in increased burned area were consistent across the NABR ecozones, 

though the western ecozones experienced greater increases in larger fire years compared to the eastern 

ecozones. Seasonal patterns of burning differed among ecozones. Along with the climate warming, changes in 

the fire regime characteristics may be an important driver of future ecosystem processes in the NABR. 


Volume 33 

Issue 9 

Pages L09703 (5 p.) 

Date May 2006 


DOI 10.1029/2006GL025677 

ISSN 0094–8276 




Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply 


Author Martin Jung 

Author Markus Reichstein 


Author Sonia I. Seneviratne 

Author Justin Sheffield 

Author Michael L. Goulden 

Author Gordon Bonan 

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Author Alessandro Cescatti 

Author Jiquan Chen 

Author Richard de Jeu 

Author A. Johannes Dolman 

Author Werner Eugster 

Author Dieter Gerten 

Author Damiano Gianelle 

Author Nadine Gobron 

Author Jens Heinke 

Author John Kimball 

Author Beverly E. Law 

Author Leonardo Montagnani 

Author Qiaozhen Mu 

Author Brigitte Mueller 

Author Keith Oleson 

Author Dario Papale 

Author Andrew D. Richardson 

Author Olivier Roupsard 

Author Steve Running 

Author Enrico Tomelleri 

Author Nicolas Viovy 

Author Ulrich Weber 

Author Christopher Williams 

Author Eric Wood 

Author Sönke Zaehle 

Author Ke Zhang 

Abstract More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate 

change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for 

ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be 

under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, 

changes in the water cycle on land—a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability 

—remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 

2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a 

machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time 

period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual 

evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After 

that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have 

ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, 

particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture 

decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain 

the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of 

evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of 

the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science. 


Volume 467 

Issue 7318 

Pages 951-954 



DOI 10.1038/nature09396 

ISSN 0028-0836 




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Recent decreases in fossil-fuel emissions of ethane and methane derived from firn air 


Author Murat Aydin 

Author Kristal R. Verhulst 

Author Eric S. Saltzman 

Author Mark O. Battle 


Author Donald R. Blake 

Author Qi Tang 

Author Michael J. Prather 

Abstract Methane and ethane are the most abundant hydrocarbons in the atmosphere and they affect both atmospheric 

chemistry and climate. Both gases are emitted from fossil fuels and biomass burning, whereas methane (CH₄) 

alone has large sources from wetlands, agriculture, landfills and waste water. Here we use measurements in firn 

(perennial snowpack) air from Greenland and Antarctica to reconstruct the atmospheric variability of ethane 

(C₂H₆) during the twentieth century. Ethane levels rose from early in the century until the 1980s, when the 

trend reversed, with a period of decline over the next 20 years. We find that this variability was primarily driven 

by changes in ethane emissions from fossil fuels; these emissions peaked in the 1960s and 1970s at 14–16 

teragrams per year (1 Tg = 10¹² g) and dropped to 8–10 Tg yr⁻¹ by the turn of the century. The reduction in 

fossil-fuel sources is probably related to changes in light hydrocarbon emissions associated with petroleum 

production and use. The ethane-based fossil-fuel emission history is strikingly different from bottom-up 

estimates of methane emissions from fossil-fuel use and implies that the fossil-fuel source of methane started to 

decline in the 1980s and probably caused the late twentieth century slow-down in the growth rate of 

atmospheric methane. 


Volume 476 

Issue 7359 

Pages 198-201 



DOI 10.1038/nature10352 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Recent fire history of the northern Great Plains 


Author Charles Edward Umbanhowar Jr 

Abstract The fire history of the northern Great Plains has been largely reconstructed from the historical record. To clarify 

this history, segments of 1-m cores from four lakes in North and South Dakota and northeastern Montana were 

examined for charcoal fragments. The cores spanned a time interval of 172 to 380 yr. Samples integrating 5-10 

yr of deposition were taken from 2-cm sections along each core and sieved. Charcoal concentrations ranged 

from 6-14,799 fragments/gram of sediment, and mean charcoal abundance was negatively correlated with 

longitude. Results suggest periods of increased fire from A.D. 1700-1740 and A.D. 1850-1900. These peaks 

were broadly synchronous across the region and ranged in duration from 20-40 yr. Postsettlement patterns of 

charcoal deposition were highly variable but generally much lower than presettlement intervals. 


Volume 135 

Issue 1 

Pages 115–121 


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ISSN 0003-0031 




Recent history of large-scale ecosystem disturbances in North America derived from the AVHRR 

satellite record 


Author Christopher Potter 

Author Pang-Ning Tan 

Author Vipin Kumar 

Author Chris Kucharik 

Author Steven Klooster 

Author Vanessa Genovese 

Author Warren Cohen 

Author Sean Healey 

Abstract Ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by disturbance events, many of which in North America 

are associated with seasonal temperature extremes, wildfires, and tropical storms. This study was conducted to 

evaluate patterns in a 19-year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the advanced 

very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major ecosystem disturbance events and 

regimes. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide 

has been computed at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 2000 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 8–km 

globally. Potential disturbance events were identified in the FPAR time series by locating anomalously low 

values (FPAR-LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 8-km pixel. We can find verifiable 

evidence of numerous disturbance types across North America, including major regional patterns of cold and 

heat waves, forest fires, tropical storms, and large-scale forest logging. Summed over 19 years, areas potentially 

influenced by major ecosystem disturbances (one FPAR-LO event over the period 1982–2000) total to more 

than 766,000 km². The periods of highest detection frequency were 1987–1989, 1995–1997, and 1999. 

Sub-continental regions of the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and Central Canada had the highest proportion 

(>90%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in forests, tundra shrublands, and wetland areas. The Great Lakes region 

showed the highest proportion (39%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in cropland areas, whereas the western 

United States showed the highest proportion (16%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in grassland areas. Based on 

this analysis, an historical picture is emerging of periodic droughts and heat waves, possibly coupled with 

herbivorous insect outbreaks, as among the most important causes of ecosystem disturbance in North America. 


Volume 8 

Issue 7 

Pages 808-824 



DOI 10.1007/s10021-005-0041-6 

ISSN 1432-9840 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem disturbance; remote sensing; fire; drought; forests. 



Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North 

America 


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Author Lewis Ziska 

Author Kim Knowlton 

Author Christine Rogers 

Author Dan Dalan 

Author Nicole Tierney 

Author Mary Ann Elder 

Author Warren Filley 

Author Jeanne Shropshire 

Author Linda B. Ford 

Author Curtis Hedberg 

Author Pamela Fleetwood 

Author Kim T. Hovanky 

Author Tony Kavanaugh 

Author George Fulford 

Author Rose F. Vrtis 

Author Jonathan A. Patz 

Author Jay Portnoy 

Author Frances Coates 

Author Leonard Bielory 

Author David Frenz 

Abstract A fundamental aspect of climate change is the potential shifts in flowering phenology and pollen initiation 

associated with milder winters and warmer seasonal air temperature. Earlier floral anthesis has been suggested, 

in turn, to have a role in human disease by increasing time of exposure to pollen that causes allergic rhinitis and 

related asthma. However, earlier floral initiation does not necessarily alter the temporal duration of the pollen 

season, and, to date, no consistent continental trend in pollen season length has been demonstrated. Here we 

report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a 

function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily 

with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a 

significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13–27 d at latitudes above ~44°N 

since 1995. This is consistent with recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding 

enhanced warming as a function of latitude. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, 

greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on public health. 


Volume 108 

Issue 10 

Pages 4248-4251 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.1014107108 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: aerobiology; allergies; global warming. 



Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008 


Author Robert K. Kaufmann 

Author Heikki Kauppi 

Author Michael L. Mann 

Author James H. Stock 

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Abstract Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been 

unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in 

warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining 

solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina 

dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially 

offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are 

consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal 

variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling 

effects. 



Date July 5, 2011 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1102467108 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: aerosol emissions; carbon emissions; coal consumption; black carbon; stratospheric water vapor. 



Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods 



Author George M. Woodwell 


Author Edward B. Rastetter 

Author Gary M. Lovett 

Author Dennis D. Baldocchi 

Author Deborah A. Clark 


Author David S. Schimel 

Author Riccardo Valentini 

Author Christian Wirth 

Author John D. Aber 

Author Jonathan J. Cole 



Author Martin Manning 

Author Robert W. Howarth 

Author Pamela A. Matson 





Author Richard A. Houghton 

Author Michael L. Pace 



Author Osvaldo E. Sala 

Author William H. Schlesinger 

Author Ernst-Detlef Schulze 

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Abstract Recent projections of climatic change have focused a great deal of scientific and public attention on patterns of 

carbon (C) cycling as well as its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net 

source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in 

C-cycling research, has been used by scientists to represent two different concepts. We propose that NEP be 

restricted to just one of its two original definitions—the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and 

ecosystem respiration (ER). We further propose that a new term—net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)—be 

applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from [negative sign]) ecosystems. Net ecosystem carbon 

balance differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur, or when inorganic C enters 

or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include the leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; 

the emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and the release of soot and CO₂ from fire. 

Carbon fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. 

However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, 

and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to the measurement of C fluxes 

at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or 

NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the fluxes included in the 

measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, 

such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we can provide a less ambiguous 

framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle. 


Volume 9 

Issue 7 

Pages 1041-1050 



DOI 10.1007/s10021-005-0105-7 

ISSN 1432-9840 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/5446825061w52412/ 

Extra Keywords: net ecosystem production; net ecosystem carbon balance; gross primary production; ecosystem 

respiration; autotrophic respiration; heterotrophic respiration; net ecosystem exchange; net biome production; 

net primary production. 



Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere 

interactions within the eastern United States 


Author Louis T. Steyaert 

Author Robert G. Knox 

Abstract Over the past 350 years, the eastern half of the United States experienced extensive land cover changes. These 

began with land clearing in the 1600s, continued with widespread deforestation, wetland drainage, and intensive 

land use by 1920, and then evolved to the present-day landscape of forest regrowth, intensive agriculture, urban 

expansion, and landscape fragmentation. Such changes alter biophysical properties that are key determinants of 

land-atmosphere interactions (water, energy, and carbon exchanges). To understand the potential implications of 

these land use transformations, we developed and analyzed 20-km land cover and biophysical parameter data 

sets for the eastern United States at 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 time slices. Our approach combined potential 

vegetation, county-level census data, soils data, resource statistics, a Landsat-derived land cover classification, 

and published historical information on land cover and land use. We reconstructed land use intensity maps for 

each time slice and characterized the land cover condition. We combined these land use data with a mutually 

consistent set of biophysical parameter classes, to characterize the historical diversity and distribution of land 

surface properties. Time series maps of land surface albedo, leaf area index, a deciduousness index, canopy 

height, surface roughness, and potential saturated soils in 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992 illustrate the profound 

effects of land use change on biophysical properties of the land surface. Although much of the eastern forest has 

returned, the average biophysical parameters for recent landscapes remain markedly different from those of 

earlier periods. Understanding the consequences of these historical changes will require land-atmosphere 

interactions modeling experiments. 


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Volume 113 

Issue 2 

Pages D02101 (27 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2006JD008277 

ISSN 0148-0227 

URL www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2008/2006JD008277.shtml 

Extra Keywords: land use change; ecosystem-atmosphere interactions; vegetation structure. 



Reconstruction of early nineteenth-century vegetation and fire regimes in the Missouri Ozarks 


Author Michael J. Batek 

Author Alan J. Rebertus 

Author Walter A. Schroeder 

Author Timothy L. Haithcoat 

Author Eric Compas 


Abstract • Aim: The purpose of this study was to reconstruct early nineteenth-century vegetation and fire regimes to 

examine the role of fire, topography, and substrate interactions in shaping landscape and regional vegetation 

patterns. • Location: Our study area was the Current River watershed of the Ozark Highlands in south-central 

Missouri, USA. • Methods: We combined analysis of early nineteenth-century Public Land Survey (PLS) notes 

and dendrochronology-based fire histories to reconstruct vegetation and disturbance regimes of pine-oak (Pinus- 

Quercus) woodlands. Three methods were used to display and analyse PLS data within a Geographic 

Information System (GIS): (1) simple point distributions for each tree species; (2) section line descriptions of 

each tree species and other coded features (e.g. `prairie'); and (3) spatial interpolation of the point-tree data. 

Vegetation patterns were then related to geological parent material, topography, and mean fire-return intervals 

from 23 sites using correlation and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). • Results: The most striking 

patterns in the early 1800 s were extensive stands of shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) and oak-dominated 

`barrens' (savanna) in the frequently burned areas south-west of the Current River, and more mesophytic, 

fire-sensitive species (red oaks (Quercus rubra L., Q. coccinea Muenchh.), maples (Acer rubrum L., Acer 

saccharum Marsh), eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) in a fire shadow north-east of the river. Several 

kilometre-wide ecotones of pine-mixed hardwood encompassed the major pineries and barrens. Fire-return 

intervals and relative dominance of several tree species were strongly correlated at both fine (3-64 km²) and 

coarse (> 100 km²) spatial scales. At fine scales, relative dominance of shortleaf pine increased with increasing 

fire frequency during 1701-1820. Relative dominance of black oak (Q. velutina Lam.), and to a lesser extent 

post oak (Q. stellata Wang.), decreased with increasing fire frequency. Shortleaf pine and these xerophytic oak 

species occurred on similar bedrock types but were strongly differentiated by fire regimes. • Main conclusions: 

Fires exerted strong constraints on vegetation composition and patterns. Historical patterns of Native American 

occupancy in the region are consistent with the reconstructed vegetation and fire histories and suggest that 

anthropogenic fire regimes played an overriding role in the development of Ozark vegetation in the 1800s. 


Volume 26 

Issue 2 

Pages 397–412 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00292.x 

ISSN 0305-0270 


Extra Keywords: vegetation; fire history; landscape; Public Land Survey; Ozarks; geographic information system. 


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Reconstruction of natural fire regimes through ecological modelling 



Abstract To reconstruct a natural fire regime it is necessary to estimate the historical fire cycle when human influence 

was less evident. This can be accomplished through the construction of a fire-origin map. The dynamic fire 

regime is a result of interactions among forest ecosystem components under various conditions. This paper 

examines the question of whether an ecological modelling approach could be helpful in providing a 

complementary solution for reconstructing natural fire regimes. Simulation of forest fire effects has been one 

component of the SEM-LAND model, and simulation results were validated by empirical observations from 

west-central Alberta, Canada. Model sensitivity analysis revealed that model behaviour was not influenced 

significantly by the initial forest age mosaic pattern and the critical value of daily precipitation that would be 

enough to stop a fire event. The methodology of simulating fire regimes is discussed. The ecological modelling 

approach could help forest managers evaluate proposed forest policy with emulation of natural disturbance 

patterns through harvesting. 


Volume 134 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 129–144 



DOI 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00290-8 

ISSN 0304-3800 


Extra Keywords: natural fire regime; SEM-LAND model; simulation model; spatial data. 



Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age 


Author Christian Wolff 

Author Gerald H. Haug 


Author Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté 

Author Achim Brauer 

Author Daniel M. Sigman 

Author Mark A. Cane 

Author Dirk Verschuren 

Abstract Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation 

(ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts 

on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment 

record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability 

during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East 

Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake 

sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa’s rainfall. 


Volume 333 

Issue 6043 

Pages 743-747 


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DOI 10.1126/science.1203724 

ISSN 1095-9203 





Reduced methane growth rate explained by decreased Northern Hemisphere microbial sources 


Author Fuu Ming Kai 

Author Stanley C. Tyler 


Author Donald R. Blake 

Abstract Atmospheric methane (CH₄) increased through much of the twentieth century, but this trend gradually 

weakened until a stable state was temporarily reached around the turn of the millennium after which levels 

increased once more. The reasons for the slowdown are incompletely understood, with past work identifying 

changes in fossil fuel, wetland and agricultural sources and hydroxyl (OH) sinks as important causal factors. 

Here we show that the late-twentieth-century changes in the CH₄ growth rates are best explained by reduced 

microbial sources in the Northern Hemisphere. Our results, based on synchronous time series of atmospheric 

CH₄ mixing and ¹³C/¹²C ratios and a two-box atmospheric model, indicate that the evolution of the mixing ratio 

requires no significant change in Southern Hemisphere sources between 1984 and 2005. Observed changes in 

the interhemispheric difference of ¹³C effectively exclude reduced fossil fuel emissions as the primary cause of 

the slowdown. The ¹³C observations are consistent with long-term reductions in agricultural emissions or another 

microbial source within the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half (51 ± 18%) of the decrease in Northern 

Hemisphere CH₄ emissions can be explained by reduced emissions from rice agriculture in Asia over the past 

three decades associated with increases in fertilizer application and reductions in water use. 


Volume 476 

Issue 7359 

Pages 194-197 



DOI 10.1038/nature10259 

ISSN 0028-0836 




References on the American Indian use of fire in ecosystems 

Type Document 

Author Gerald W. Williams 


Publisher USDA Forest Service, Washington, D.C. 

Date May 2005 

URL http://www.dof.virginia.gov/fire/prescribed-smoke-mgmt.shtml 

Loc. in Archive Virginia Department of Forestry 



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Reflections on the conception, birth, and childhood of numerical weather prediction 



Abstract In recognition of the contributions of Norman Phillips and Joseph Smagorinsky to the field of numerical weather 

prediction (NWP), a symposium was held in 2003; this account is an amplification of a talk presented there. 

Ideas anticipating the advent of NWP, the first technically successful numerical weather forcast, and the 

subsequent progression of NWP to a mature discipline are described, with special emphasis on the work of 

Phillips and Smagorinsky and their mentor Jule Charney. 

Publication Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 

Volume 34 

Pages 37-45 

Date May 2006 

Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 

DOI 10.1146/annurev.earth.34.083105.102317 

ISSN 0084-6597 

URL http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.earth.34.083105.102317 



Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends 


Author Kevin Anderson 

Author Alice Bows 

Abstract The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent 

by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2°C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do 

not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be 

scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated 

emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2°C threshold and a range of post-peak 

emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines 

whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled 

within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly 

constrains the 2000–2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global 

agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon 

dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates 

of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO₂e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization 

much below 650 ppmv CO₂e is improbable. 


Volume 366 

Issue 1882 

Pages 3863-3882 


Journal Abbr Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 

DOI 10.1098/rsta.2008.0138 

ISSN 1471-2962 

URL http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1882/3863 

Extra Keywords: emission scenarios; cumulative emissions; climate policy; energy; emission trends. 



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Regeneration patterns in old-growth red fir–western white pine forests in the northern Sierra Nevada, 

Lake Tahoe, USA 


Author Andrew E. Scholl 


Abstract Red fir (Abies magnifica) forests in the Sierra Nevada are known to demonstrate both shade tolerant and 

disturbance related regeneration making it difficult to understand the role of disturbances in the regeneration 

dynamics of the forests. Four stands with different structural characteristics were selected for intensive sampling 

in order to capture the observed range of structural variability (e.g. composition, age, size and spatial pattern) in 

an old-growth red fir–western white pine (Pinus monticola) forest in the northern Sierra Nevada. We used 

detailed stem mapping, stand structural analysis and cross-dated fire scar samples to identify the relationships 

between disturbances and stand structure. All trees >5 cm dbh within four 0.5-ha plots were aged and mapped. 

The species composition of the plots was similar but the density and basal area of the tree populations varied 

among the plots. Red fir density and basal areas are greater than that of western white pine. The age structure 

indicated continuous, but variable recruitment and there were few seedlings and saplings. The mean point fire 

return interval was 76 years (range 25–175 years) for the 400-ha study area. Most fires scarred only single 

samples suggesting that burns were small and patchy, but pulses of recruitment suggest that some fires were 

moderate in severity. Regeneration pulses coincided with the dates of several fires (e.g. 1636, 1770). Moran's I, 

a measure of spatial autocorrelation, indicated that red fir and western white pine exhibited positive spatial 

autocorrelation at short (3–12 m) and intermediate (36–75 m) distances. Groups of similar age trees were 

spatially discrete and groups of different ages tended to overlap, resulting in an all aged forest. The spatial 

pattern of tree ages and the record of disturbance indicate that infrequent moderate severity fires have a lasting 

influence on the structure and development of old-growth red fir forests. 


Volume 235 

Issue 1-3 

Pages 143–154 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.006 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: Abies magnifica; Pinus monticola; forest dynamics; disturbance; fire history; age structure; size 

structure; spatial patterns; Moran's I; regeneration. 



Regional and local controls on postglacial vegetation and fire in the Siskiyou Mountains, northern 



Author Christy E. Briles 



Author Philip Higuera 

Abstract The Siskiyou Mountains of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon are a floristic hotspot, and the 

high diversity of conifers there likely results from a combination of geological, ecological, climatological and 

historical factors. To evaluate how past climate variability has influenced the composition, structure and fire 

regime of the Siskiyou forests, pollen, charcoal, and lithological evidence was examined from two lakes along a 

moisture gradient to reconstruct the vegetation, fire and climate history. The late-glacial period was 

characterized by subalpine parkland and infrequent fire at both sites. During the late-glacial/Early Holocene 

transition period, subalpine parkland was replaced by a closed forest of Pinus, Cupressaceae, Abies and 

Pseudotsuga and more frequent fires a 1000 years earlier at the wetter site, and it is likely that reduced Pacific 

Ocean upwelling created warmer drier conditions at the coast. In the Early Holocene, Pinus, Cupressaceae were 

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less abundant and fire less frequent at the coastal site during a period of increased coastal upwelling and fog 

production. In the Late Holocene, Abies, Pseudotsuga, Pinus, and Quercus vaccinifolia increased in the forest at 

both sites suggesting a widespread response to cooling. Fewer fires at the wetter site may account for the 

abundance of Picea breweriana within the last 1000 years. The comparison of the two records implies that 

large-scale controls in climate during the last 14,000 cal yr BP have resulted in major changes in vegetation and 

fire regime. Asynchrony in the ecosystem response of wetter and drier sites arises from small-scale spatial 

variations in effective moisture and temperature resulting from topographically-influenced microclimates and 

coastal-to-inland climate gradients. 


Volume 265 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 159–169 



DOI 10.1016/j.palaeo.2008.05.007 

ISSN 0031-0182 


Extra Keywords: Pacific Northwest; Siskiyou Mountains; vegetation history; biological diversity controls; climate 

change; synchrony. 



Regions of autumn Eurasian snow cover and associations with North American winter temperatures 


Author Thomas L. Mote 

Author Emily R. Kutney 

Abstract The extent of snow cover over Eurasia during autumn has been shown to be influential in shaping atmospheric 

circulation over the Northern Hemisphere the following winter via the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic 

Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnections. Regions of Eurasian snow cover 

were derived from Principal Component Analysis and compared to winter temperatures across North America 

for 1967/1968–2007/2008, excluding 1969/1970 and 1971/1972. The score time series of each principal 

component was then compared to winter averages of the AO, NAO, and PNA indices in order to identify 

possible links in the snow-temperature relationship. Results showed that autumn snow cover from northern 

Scandinavia to the West Siberian Plain is most significantly associated with winter temperatures over the interior 

of North America. More (less) frequent snow cover over this region is related to lower (higher) winter 

temperatures over the interior of North America in January, extending to the eastern and southern United States 

in February. The greatest temperature response to anomalous snow cover occurred near the geographic centre 

of North America where winter temperature differences exceeded 5 °C. More (less) frequent autumn snow 

cover across the eastern Tibetan Plateau was associated with higher (lower) temperatures in the Great Basin and 

eastern Canada. 

Publication International Journal of Climatology 

Volume Article first published online 

Pages 14 p. 


Journal Abbr Int. J. Climatol. 

DOI 10.1002/joc.2341 

ISSN 0899-8418 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2341/full 

Extra Keywords: snow cover; Eurasia; Arctic Oscillation; Pacific/North American teleconnection. 



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Relations between El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United 

States 


Author Albert J. Simard 

Author Donald A. Haines 

Author William A. Main 

Abstract The 1982--1983 El Nino resulted in climatic anomalies on a global scale, including record high wildland fire 

activity in Indonesia and record low activity in the United States. This paper describes the El Nino/Southern 

Oscillation phenomena and possible teleconnections to United States weather. Because precursors of an El Nino 

may be evident several months before the onset of an event, the phenomena has potential for long-range fire 

activity predictions. Using 53 years of data, we tested the hypothesis that El Nino events affect annual fire 

occurrence and area burned in the United States. We found a statistically significant relation between El Nino 

events and decreased fire activity in the South. Results for the North-Central and Eastern states are weak or 

inconsistent. There is no evidence for any relation with the Pacific Coast or Rocky Mountain states. Despite the 

coarse, exploratory nature of this study, the results are sufficiently encouraging to warrant more detailed 

examination. 

Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 

Volume 36 

Issue 2 

Pages 93–104 


Journal Abbr Agr. Forest Meteorol. 

DOI 10.1016/0168-1923(85)90001-2 

ISSN 0168-1923 




Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and 

multidecadal-scale climatic variation 




Abstract • Aim: An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to 

elucidate the implications of climate-change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we 

investigate the relationships between subalpine-zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad-scale 

climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time-scales. • 

Location: The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir 

(Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National 

Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. • Methods: We compared 

years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National 

Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation 

(ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). • Results: 

Years of extensive subalpine-zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the 

PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and 

centennial time-scales. • Main conclusions: Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions 

and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the 

positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co-occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña-negative 

PDO-positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. 

Low-frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate-pattern phases, resulting from trends in 

the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 

1851–1919) and a fire-free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and 

years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of 

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western North America. 


Volume 33 

Issue 5 

Pages 833-842 

Date May 2006 


DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01456.x 

ISSN 0305-0270 


Extra Keywords: Abies lasiocarpa; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire–climate 

relationships; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; Picea engelmannii; Pinus contorta; subalpine forests. 



Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence 

from five landscape–fire–succession models 


Author Geoffrey J. Cary 




Author Ian D. Davies 




Author Russell A. Parsons 

Abstract The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFÉ, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) 

was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel 

management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number 

of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified 

for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge 

pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were 

consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, 

which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition 

management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition 

management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned 

in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition 

management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled 

ecosystems. 


Volume 18 

Issue 2 

Pages 147-156 



DOI 10.1071/WF07085 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned 


Extra Keywords: CAFÉ; fire management; FIRESCAPE; LAMOS; LANDSUM; model comparison; SEM-LAND; 

simulation modelling. 

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Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska 


Author John T. Abatzoglou 


Abstract Efforts to quantify relationships between climate and wildfire in Alaska have not yet explored the role of higherfrequency 

meteorological conditions on individual wildfire ignition and growth. To address this gap, 

meteorological data for 665 large fires that burned across the Alaskan interior between 1980 and 2007 were 

assessed to determine the respective influence of higher-frequency weather and lower-frequency climate, in 

terms of both antecedent and post-ignition conditions on fire growth. Antecedent climate exhibited no 

discernable influence on eventual fire size. In contrast, fire size was sensitive to weather in the days to weeks 

following ignition, particularly the post-ignition timing of precipitation. Prolonged periods of warm and dry 

conditions coincident with blocking that persists for several weeks after ignition enabled growth of large 

wildfires, whereas the return of wetting precipitation generally within a week after ignition inhibited growth of 

smaller wildfires. These results suggest that daily weather data are a critical predictor of fire growth and large 

fire potential and encourage their use in fire management and modelling. 


Volume 20 

Issue 4 

Pages 479 



DOI 10.1071/WF10046 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF10046 


Extra Keywords: boreal forest; fire danger indices. 



Research applications of ecosystem patterns 



Abstract This article discusses the origins of natural ecosystem patterns from global to local scales. It describes how 

understanding these patterns can help scientists and managers in two ways. First, the local systems are shown 

within the context of larger systems. This perspective can be applied in assessing the connections between 

action at one scale and effect at another, the spatial transferability of models, and the links between terrestrial 

and aquatic systems. Second, scientists and managers can benefit because they gain information about the 

geographic patterns in ecosystems. Consequently, they are in a better position to design sampling networks, 

transfer knowledge, and analyze ecosystem diversity. The usefulness of multiscale analysis of ecosystem 

patterns suggests new scientific directions for research and points the way for restructuring the Forest Service, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture research programs. 

Date October 16-19, 2006 

Proceedings Title Proceedings of the Eighth Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Symposium 

Conference Name Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Symposium 

Place Monterey, CA. 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: Washington, DC 

Pages 83-90 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

Series General Technical Report WO-79 




Bailey, Robert G. 2009. Research applications of ecosystem patterns. In: McRoberts, Ronald E.; Reams, Gregory A.; Van Deusen, 

Paul C.; McWilliams, William H., eds. Proceedings of the eighth annual forest inventory and analysis symposium; 2006 October 

16-19; Monterey, CA. Gen. Tech. Report WO-79. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 83-90. 

Research News: NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record 

Type Web Page 

Author NASA 

Abstract Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released 

Wednesday by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 

Website Title National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Goddard Institute for Space Studies 

Date 2011 

URL http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110112/ 

Rights NASA 



Resilience of the boreal forest in response to Holocene fire-frequency changes assessed by pollen 

diversity and population dynamics 





Author Bianca Fréchette 


Abstract The hypothesis that changes in fire frequency control the long-term dynamics of boreal forests is tested on the 

basis of paleodata. Sites with different wildfire histories at the regional scale should exhibit different vegetation 

trajectories. Mean fire intervals and vegetation reconstructions are based respectively on sedimentary charcoal 

and pollen from two small lakes, one in the Mixedwood boreal forests and the second in the Coniferous boreal 

forests. The pollen-inferred vegetation exhibits different trajectories of boreal forest dynamics after 

afforestation, whereas mean fire intervals have no significant or a delayed impact on the pollen data, either in 

terms of diversity or trajectories. These boreal forests appear resilient to changes in fire regimes, although subtle 

modifications can be highlighted. Vegetation compositions have converged during the last 1200 years with the 

decrease in mean fire intervals, owing to an increasing abundance of boreal species at the southern site 

(Mixedwood), whereas changes are less pronounced at the northern site (Coniferous). Although wildfire is a 

natural property of boreal ecosystems, this study does not support the hypothesis that changes in mean fire 

intervals are the key process controlling long-term vegetation transformation. Fluctuations in mean fire intervals 

alone do not explain the historical and current distribution of vegetation, but they may have accelerated the 

climatic process of borealisation, likely resulting from orbital forcing. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1026–1039 

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DOI 10.1071/WF09097 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF09097 

Extra Keywords: climate; fire; Holocene; lake sediments; numerical analysis; pollen diversity. 



Response of plant functional types to changes in the fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems: A 

simulation approach 



Abstract In the Mediterranean basin, the climate is predicted to be warmer and effectively drier, leading to changes in 

fuel conditions and fire regime. Land abandonment in the Mediterranean basin is also changing the fire regime 

through the increase in fuel loads. In the present study, two simulation models of vegetation dynamics were 

tested in order to predict changes in plant functional types due to changes in fire recurrence in eastern Spain. 

The two modelling approaches are the FATE-model (based on vital attributes) and the gap model BROLLA 

(based on the gap-phase theory). The models were arranged to simulate four functional types, based mainly on 

their regenerative strategies after disturbance: Quercus (resprouter), Pinus (non-resprouter with serotinous 

cones), Erica (resprouter), and Cistus (non-resprouter with germination stimulated by fire). The simulation 

results suggested a decrease in Quercus abundance, an increase in Cistus and Erica, and a maximum of Pinus at 

intermediate recurrence scenarios. Despite their different approaches, both models predicted a similar response 

to increased fire recurrence, and the results were consistent with field observations. 


Volume 10 

Issue 5 

Pages 717–722 



DOI 10.2307/3237086 

ISSN 1100-9233 

Short Title Response of plant functional types to changes in the fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems 


Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire recurrence; functional group; gap modelling; liife form; Spain. 



Response of vegetation and fire to Little Ice Age climate change: Regional continuity and landscape 

heterogeneity 


Author Sara C. Hotchkiss 

Author Randy Calcote 

Author Elizabeth A. Lynch 

Abstract Late-Holocene climatic conditions in the upper Great Lakes region have changed sufficiently to produce 

significant changes in vegetation and fire regimes. The objective of this study was to determine how the 

vegetation mosaic and fire regimes on an oak (Quercus spp.)- and pine (Pinus spp.)-dominated sand plain in 

northwestern Wisconsin responded to climatic changes of the past 1,200 years. We used pollen and charcoal 

records from a network of sites to investigate the range of natural variability of vegetation on a 1,500-km² 

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landscape on the southern part of the sand plain. A major vegetation shift from jack pine (Pinus banksiana) and 

red pine (P. resinosa) to increased abundance of white pine (P. strobus) occurred between 700 and 600 calendar 

years before present (cal yr BP), apparently corresponding to more mesic conditions regionally. A decrease in 

charcoal accumulation rate also occurred at most sites but was not synchronous with the vegetation change. At 

some sites there were further changes in vegetation and fire regimes occurring ~500–300 cal yr BP, but these 

changes were not as strong or unidirectional as those that occurred 700–600 cal yr BP. Our results suggest that 

both the composition and the distribution of vegetation of the southern part of the sand plain have been 

sensitive to relatively small climatic changes, and that the vegetation at the time of European settlement was a 

transitory phenomenon, rather than a long-term stable condition. 


Volume 22 

Issue S1 

Pages 25-41 



DOI 10.1007/s10980-007-9133-3 

ISSN 0921-2973 

Short Title Response of vegetation and fire to Little Ice Age climate change 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/c06843k384131371/ 

Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; fire history; landscape history; Little Ice Age; climatic change; pollen analysis; 

sand plain; vegetation history; Wisconsin. 



Responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon budgets to current and future environmental variability 


Author David Medvigy 

Author Steven C. Wofsy 

Author J. William Munger 


Abstract We assess the significance of high-frequency variability of environmental parameters (sunlight, precipitation, 

temperature) for the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems under current and future climate. We 

examine the influence of hourly, daily, and monthly variance using the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 

in conjunction with the long-term record of carbon fluxes measured at Harvard Forest. We find that fluctuations 

of sunlight and precipitation are strongly and nonlinearly coupled to ecosystem function, with effects that 

accumulate through annual and decadal timescales. Increasing variability in sunlight and precipitation leads to 

lower rates of carbon sequestration and favors broad-leaved deciduous trees over conifers. Temperature 

variability has only minor impacts by comparison. We also find that projected changes in sunlight and 

precipitation variability have important implications for carbon storage and ecosystem structure and 

composition. Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model estimates for changes in 

high-frequency meteorological variability over the next 100 years, we expect that terrestrial ecosystems will be 

affected by changes in variability almost as much as by changes in mean climate. We conclude that terrestrial 

ecosystems are highly sensitive to high-frequency meteorological variability, and that accurate knowledge of the 

statistics of this variability is essential for realistic predictions of ecosystem structure and functioning. 


Volume 107 

Issue 18 

Pages 8275-8280 

Date May 4, 2010 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.0912032107 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: carbon fluxes; climate variability; climate-ecosystem models; terrestrial biosphere; Harvard Forest. 

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Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world 


Author Mark Stafford Smith 

Author Lisa Horrocks 

Author Alex Harvey 

Author Clive Hamilton 

Abstract With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and 

more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have 

implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming 

of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and 

transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are 

exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, 

we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the 

interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature 

of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the 

categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to 

break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The 

approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. 


Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 196-216 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0277 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: adaptation; uncertainty; decision-making; risk management; complexity; climate change. 



Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on 

hydrology in the United States pacific northwest 


Author Eric P. Salathé Jr. 

Author Philip W. Mote 

Author Matthew W. Wiley 

Abstract This paper reviews methods that have been used to evaluate global climate simulations and to downscale global 

climate scenarios for the assessment of climate impacts on hydrologic systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. 

The approach described has been developed to facilitate integrated assessment research in support of regional 

resource management. Global climate model scenarios are evaluated and selected based on historic 20th century 

simulations. A statistical downscaling method is then applied to produce a regional data set. To facilitate the use 

of climate projections in hydrologic assessment, additional statistical mapping may be applied to generate 

synthetic station time series. Finally, results are presented from a regional climate model that indicate important 

differences in the regional climate response from what is captured by global models and statistical downscaling. 


Volume 27 

Issue 12 

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Pages 1611–1621 



DOI 10.1002/joc.1540 

ISSN 1097-0088 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1540/abstract 

Extra Keywords: climate impacts; downscalling; hydrologic modelling; climate change; regional climate modelling. 



Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle 

highly uncertain 


Author Werner A. Kurz 

Author Graham Stinson 

Author Gregory J. Rampley 

Author Caren C. Dymond 

Author Eric T. Neilson 

Abstract A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns 

during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions 

by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is 

strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical 

insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of 

the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of 

between 30 and 245 Mt CO₂e yr⁻¹ during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008–2012). The recent 

transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse 

gas balance (215 Mt CO₂e yr⁻¹) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing 

impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all 

contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the 

carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar 

circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate 

mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for 

example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in 

forest management aimed at mitigating climate change. 


Volume 105 

Issue 5 

Pages 1551-1555 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0708133105 

ISSN 0027-8424 


Extra Keywords: greenhouse gases; factoring out; mitigation options; forest management; Kyoto Protocol. 



Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO₂ increase and climate change during the last 150 years 



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Author Werner von Bloh 


Author Eva Bauer 

Author Wolfgang Cramer 

Abstract We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO₂ emissions, land 

cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate 

complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use reconstructions: the cropland dataset 

by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001), and the 

land-use emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002). Comparison between the simulated and observed 

temporal evolution of atmospheric CO₂ and δ¹³CO₂ are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model 

uncertainty, CLIMBER-2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global 

vegetation model. In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend 

to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 

0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate 

and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to 

land-use CO₂ emissions. Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO₂ of between 22 and 

43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ¹³CO₂ with HYDE compares most favourably with ice 

core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. 

In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO₂. This 

contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ 

simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO₂ growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 

12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for 

atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 150 years. 


Volume 10 

Issue 8 

Pages 1253-1266 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00812.x 

ISSN 13541013 


Extra Keywords: atmospheric CO₂ concentration; atmospheric δ¹³CO₂; biogeophysical effects; biosphere–atmosphere 

interaction; earth system modelling; historical land cover changes; interactive carbon cycle. 



Role of tropical Pacific SSTs in global medieval hydroclimate: A modeling study 


Author Robert Burgman 

Author Richard Seager 

Author Amy Clement 

Author Celine Herweijer 

Abstract The role of tropical Pacific SSTs in driving global medieval hydroclimate is assessed. Using fossil coral records 

from Palmyra Atoll, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions are derived for the 

period 1320–1462 A.D. These boundary conditions consist of La Niña-like mean state conditions in the tropical 

Pacific with inter-annual and decadal variability about that altered state. The reconstructed SSTs in the tropical 

Pacific are used to force a 16 member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, 

coupled to a one layer ocean model outside of the tropical Pacific. The AGCM simulations of medieval climate 

are compared with modern climate simulations for the period 1856–2005 A.D. and are shown to reproduce 

many aspects of medieval hydroclimate found in paleo-proxy records for much of the Western Hemisphere, 

northern Eurasia, and the northern tropics. These results suggest that many features of global medieval 

hydroclimate changes can be explained by changes in tropical Pacific SSTs, though the potential role for other 

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oceans is also discussed. 


Volume 37 

Issue 6 

Pages L06705 (6 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009GL042239 

ISSN 0094–8276 

Short Title Role of tropical Pacific SSTs in global medieval hydroclimate 

URL http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1006/2009GL042239/ 

Extra Keywords: hydroclimate; medieval; paleoclimate. 



Royal Society's climate change guide cuts confusion out of the hard science: UK's 'definitive voice of 

science' hopes guide will counter misunderstanding and bogus claims about man-made global warming 

Type Web Page 

Author Duncan Clark 

Website Title guardian.co.uk 

Website Type Guardian News and Media 

Date 2010-09-30 

URL http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/sep/30/royal-society-climate-change-guide 

Rights Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies 



Satellite- and ground-based CO total column observations over 2010 Russian fires: Accuracy of 

top-down estimates based on thermal IR satellite data 


Author Leonid Yurganov 

Author Vadim Rakitin 

Author Anatoliy Dzhola 

Author Thomas August 

Author Ekaterina Fokeeva 

Author Gennadiy Gorchakov 

Author Evgeniy Grechko 

Author Scott Hannon 

Author Aleksey Karpov 

Author Lesley Ott 

Author Evgenia Semutnikova 

Author Roman Shumsky 

Author Larrabee Strow 

Abstract Data are presented from three space sounders and two ground-based spectrometers in Moscow and its suburbs 

during the forest and peat fires that occurred in Central Russia in July–August 2010. The Moscow area was 

strongly impacted by the CO plume from these fires. Concurrent satellite- and ground-based observations were 

used to quantify the errors of CO top-down emission estimates. On certain days, CO total columns retrieved 

from the data of the space-based sounders were 2–3 times less than those obtained from the ground-based 

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sun-tracking spectrometers. The depth of the polluted layer over Moscow was estimated using total column 

measurements compared with CO volume mixing ratios in the surface layer and on the TV tower and found to 

be between 180 and 360 m. The missing CO that is the average difference between the CO total column 

accurately determined by the ground spectrometer and that retrieved by MOPITT and AIRS, was determined 

for the Moscow area as ~3 E18 molec cm⁻². This value was extrapolated onto the entire plume; subsequently, 

the CO burden (total mass) over Russia during the fire event was corrected. A top-down estimate of the total 

emitted CO, obtained by a simple mass balance model increased by 80%–100% due to this correction (up to 40 

Tg). 

Publication Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 

Volume 11 

Issue 4 

Pages 12207-12250 


Journal Abbr Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 

DOI 10.5194/acpd-11-12207-2011 

ISSN 1680-7375 

Short Title Satellite- and ground-based CO total column observations over 2010 Russian fires 

URL http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/12207/2011/ 



Savannas, barrens, and rock outcrop plant communities of North America 

Type Book 

Editor Roger C. Anderson 

Editor James S. Fralish 

Editor Jerry M. Baskin 

Abstract Description: Savannas and barrens were major components of the historic North American landscape before it 

was extensively altered by agricultural and urban development during the past century. Rock outcrop plant 

communities and serpentine barrens are of interest because they are refugia for endemic species adapted to 

extreme environmental conditions. Many of these communities have been reduced to less than one per cent of 

their original area and are imperiled ecosystems. This book provides a coherent, readable summary of the 

technical information available on savannas, barrens and rock outcrop plant communities. It is organized by 

region into four parts: eastern south-eastern region, central/midwest region, western/south-western region, and 

northern region. Written by internationally recognized regional specialists, each chapter includes a description 

of the climate, geology, soils associated with the community, and information about its historic and current 

vegetation. 


Place Cambridge, UK; New York, NY 


Date 1999 


ISBN 9780521573221 

URL http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ebook.jsf? 

bid=CBO9780511574627 



Related 

Deep-soil savannas and barrens of the Midwestern United States (Chapter 9) 

Science and technology for sustainable development special feature: A framework for vulnerability 

490 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


analysis in sustainability science 


Author Billie L. Turner II 

Author Roger E. Kasperson 

Author Pamela A. Matson 

Author James J. McCarthy 

Author Robert W. Corell 

Author Lindsey Christensen 

Author Noelle Eckley 

Author Jeanne X. Kasperson 

Author Amy Luers 

Author Marybeth L. Martello 

Author Colin Polsky 

Author Alexander Pulsipher 

Author Andrew M. Schiller 

Abstract Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the 

consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise 

questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? 

Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) 

alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition 

requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to 

treat coupled human–environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their 

vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human–environment systems is 

presented. Research on global environmental change has significantly improved our understanding of the 

structure and function of the biosphere and the human impress on both (1). The emergence of “sustainability 

science” (2–4) builds toward an understanding of the human–environment condition with the dual objectives of 

meeting the needs of society while sustaining the life support systems of the planet. These objectives, in turn, 

require improved dialogue between science and decision making (5–8). The vulnerability of coupled human– 

environment systems is one of the central elements of this dialogue and sustainability research (6, 9–11). It 

directs attention to such questions as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental and human 

changes underway, and where? How are these changes and their consequences attenuated or amplified by 

different human and environmental conditions? What can be done to reduce vulnerability to change? How may 

more resilient and adaptive communities and societies be built? Answers to these and related questions require 

conceptual frameworks that account for the vulnerability of coupled human–environment systems with diverse 

and complex linkages. Various expert communities have made considerable progress in pointing the way toward 

the design of these frameworks (10, 11). These advances are briefly reviewed here and, drawing on them, we 

present a conceptual framework of vulnerability developed by the Research and Assessment Systems for 

Sustainability Program (http://sust.harvard.edu) that produced the set of works in this Special Feature of PNAS. 

The framework aims to make vulnerability analysis consistent with the concerns of sustainability and global 

environmental change science. The case study by Turner et al. (12) in this issue of PNAS illustrates how the 

framework informs vulnerability assessments. 


Volume 100 

Issue 14 

Pages 8074-8079 


DOI 10.1073/pnas.1231335100 

ISSN 0027-8424 




Scientific and social challenges for the management of fire-prone wildland–urban interfaces 


491 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM




Abstract At their worst, fires at the rural–urban or wildland–urban interface cause tragic loss of human lives and homes, 

but mitigating these fire effects through management elicits many social and scientific challenges. This paper 

addresses four interconnected management challenges posed by socially disastrous landscape fires. The issues 

concern various assets (particularly houses, human life and biodiversity), fuel treatments, and fire and human 

behaviours. The topics considered are: 'asset protection zones'; 'defensible space' and urban fire spread in 

relation to house ignition and loss; 'stay-or-go' policy and the prediction of time available for safe egress and the 

possible conflict between the creation of defensible space and wildland management objectives. The first 

scientific challenge is to model the effective width of an asset protection zone of an urban area. The second is to 

consider the effect of vegetation around a house, potentially defensible space, on fire arrival at the structure. 

The third scientific challenge is to present stakeholders with accurate information on rates of spread, and where 

the fire front is located, so as to allow them to plan safe egress or preparation time in their particular 

circumstances. The fourth scientific challenge is to be able to predict the effects of fires on wildland species 

composition. Associated with each scientific challenge is a social challenge: for the first two scientific 

challenges the social challenge is to co-ordinate fuel management within and between the urban and rural or 

wildland sides of the interface. For the third scientific challenge, the social challenge is to be aware of, and 

appropriately use, fire danger information so that the potential for safe egress from a home can be estimated 

most accurately. Finally, the fourth social challenge is to for local residents of wildland–urban interfaces with an 

interest in biodiversity conservation to understand the effects of fire regimes on biodiversity, thereby assisting 

hard-pressed wildland managers to make informed choices. 


Volume 4 

Issue 3 

Pages 034014 (10 p.) 



DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/034014 

ISSN 1748-9326 

URL http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/3/034014/ 

Extra Keywords: fire behaviour; urban–wildland interface; social disasters; ‘stay-or-go’; defensible space. 



Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA 


Author John Roads 

Author Francis Fujioka 

Author Shyh-Chin Chen 

Author R. Burgan 

Abstract The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to 

seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on 

standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), which include the ignition component 

(IC), energy release component (ER), burning index (BI), spread component (SC), and the Keetch–Byram 

drought index (KB). The Fosberg fire weather index, which is a simplified form of the BI, has been previously 

used not only for the USA but also for other global regions and is thus included for comparison. As will be 

shown, all of these indices can be predicted well at weekly times scales and there is even skill out to seasonal 

time scales over many US West locations. The most persistent indices (BI and ER) tend to have the greatest 

seasonal forecast skill. The NFDRS indices also have a weak relation to observed fire characteristics such as fire 

counts and acres burned, especially when the validation fire danger indices are used. 


Volume 14 

Issue 1 

Pages 1–18 


492 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



DOI 10.1071/WF03052 

ISSN 1049-8001 


paper=WF03052 



Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: Observing the deviation from eco-climatic 

fire regimes 


Author Yannick Le Page 

Author Duarte Oom 

Author João M. N. Silva 

Author Per Jönsson 

Author José M. C. Pereira 

Abstract • Aim: In any region affected, fires exhibit a strong seasonal cycle driven by the dynamic of fuel moisture and 

ignition sources throughout the year. In this paper we investigate the global patterns of fire seasonality, which 

we relate to climatic, anthropogenic, land-cover and land-use variables. • Location: Global, with detailed 

analyses from single 1°× 1° grid cells. • Methods: We use a fire risk index, the Chandler burning index (CBI), as 

an indicator of the 'natural', eco-climatic fire seasonality, across all types of ecosystems. A simple metric, the 

middle of the fire season, is computed from both gridded CBI data and satellite-derived fire detections. We then 

interpret the difference between the eco-climatic and observed metrics as an indicator of the human footprint on 

fire seasonality. • Results: Deforestation, shifting cultivation, cropland production or tropical savanna fires are 

associated with specific timings due to land-use practices, sometimes largely decoupled from the CBI dynamics. 

Detailed time series from relevant locations provide comprehensive information about these practices and how 

they are adapted to eco-climatic conditions. • Main conclusions: We find a great influence of anthropogenic 

activities on global patterns of fire seasonality. The specificity of the main fire practices and their easy 

identification from global observation is a potential tool to support land-use monitoring efforts. Our results 

should also prove valuable in the development of a methodological approach for improving the representation of 

anthropogenic fire practices in dynamic global vegetation models. 


Volume 19 

Issue 4 

Pages 575-588 



DOI 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00525.x 

ISSN 1466-822X 

URL http://blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00525.x 

Extra Keywords: anthropogenic fires; anticipated/delayed fire season; Chandler burning index; dry season; fire 

drivers; fire season. 



Sedimentary charcoal as an indicator of late-Holocene drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, and its 

relevance to the future 




493 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract A Holocene record of climate, fire and vegetation regimes was reconstructed for Siesta Lake, Yosemite National 

Park, California, using fossil pollen and charcoal from lake sediments. These reconstructions were generated to 

provide a long-term perspective on drought in the Sierra Nevada. The sedimentary record is in agreement with 

other long-term records of climate and vegetation from the Sierra Nevada, and the records of climate and fire 

for the last c. 1000 years are in agreement with tree-ring and hydrological studies. This correspondence suggests 

that sedimentary charcoal and pollen are reliable indicators of change in climate, vegetation and fire frequency 

through time. The fire frequencies associated with the droughts of the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ are only half as 

great as those recorded during the early-Holocene insolation maximum. Model results suggest that the 

temperature increases associated with the insolation maximum are a good analogue for those expected with 

global warming. If this is the case, future droughts may be more severe than any experi enced in the last several 

thousand years, and these data should be considered in planning for future change. 


Volume 13 

Issue 1 

Pages 21–28 



DOI 10.1191/0959683603hl591rp 

ISSN 1477-0911 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/content/13/1/21 

Extra Keywords: palaeoecology; charcoal; pollen; drought; fire frequency; ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’; Holocene; 

Sierra Nevada; California. 



Severe wind and fire regimes in northern forests: Historical variability at the regional scale 


Author Lisa A. Schulte 


Abstract Within the northern Great Lakes region, mesoscale (10s to 100s of km²) forest patterning is driven by 

disturbance dynamics. Using original Public Land Survey (PLS) records in northern Wisconsin, USA, we study 

spatial patterns of wind and fire disturbances during the pre-Euroamerican settlement period (ca. 1850). Our 

goals were: (1) to determine how effectively wind and fire disturbance can be reconstructed from the PLS, (2) 

to assess the roles of wind and fire in shaping vegetation patterns, (3) to evaluate landscape to regional controls 

of wind and fire regimes, and (4) to assess the potential for interactions between these disturbances. Our 

analyses indicate that only relatively intense fire and wind disturbance can be reliably detected from the PLS 

(62-68% canopy removal). Heavy windthrow was more prevalent than fire disturbance in presettlement forests, 

and wind-disturbed patches were comparatively smaller and more complex in shape. Disturbance rotation 

periods ranged between 450 and 10 500 years for heavy windthrow and between 700 and 93 000 years for 

stand-replacing fire. Occurrences of wind and fire disturbance were related to geographic province and to 

regional soil patterns; analysis further suggests a negative interaction between the two disturbance types. Given 

that severe wind disturbance was infrequent, mature to old forests of late-successional species dominated much 

of pre-Euroamerican northern Wisconsin, but wind disturbances may have allowed regional persistence of less 

shade-tolerant species, such as Betula alleghaniensis. Pine-dominated vegetation was limited to regions with 

more frequent fire, but frequencies of stand-replacing fire derived from survey records were insufficient to 

maintain these successional vegetation types; we suggest that frequent surface fires, not recorded in the PLS, 

along with infrequent stand-replacing fire, maintained these vegetation types. The extensive nature of the PLS 

provides a powerful baseline for addressing changes in forest conditions and disturbance regimes associated 

with climate and land use for both the present and more distant past. Such baselines are informative in 

discussions of historical variability and restoration silviculture. 


Volume 86 

Issue 2 

Pages 431-445 


494 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



DOI 10.1890/03-4065 

ISSN 0012-9658 

Short Title Severe Wind and Fire Regimes in Northern Forests 


Extra Keywords: Betula alleghaniensis; disturbance; fire ecology; landscape ecology; pre-Euroamerican settlement; 

pinus; public land survey; restoration baselins; windthrow. 



Sierra Nevada forests: Where did they come from? Where are they going? What does it mean? 



Author Wallace B. Woolfenden 

Abstract Description: The prospect of human-induced global warning has received centerstage attention from ecologists 

concerned about future ecosystems. While such effects deserve critical analysis, they are best understood in the 

context of natural climate change. Anthropogenic atmospheric effects are often discussed as if background 

climates were stable (Mahlman 1997). Even in the recent past, however, climates have changed at similar rates 

and magnitudes to predicted anthropogenic changes, catalyzing significant natural changes in terrestrial 

ecosystems. With or without the complication of human effects, implications of climate change to conservation 

and management planning are great. Over the past twenty years, advances in Quaternary sciences have 

significantly imr proved our understanding of historic climate and its influence on biota and planetary systems. 


Proceedings Title Transactions of the 64th North American Wildlife and Natural Resource Conference 

Conference Name Transactions of the Sixty-Fourth North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference. March 26-30, 

1999, Burlingame, California 


Publisher Wildlife Management Institute 

Pages 206-236 

ISBN 9990641560 

Short Title Sierra Nevada Forests 




Notes: 

Citation: 

Millar, Constance I.; Woolfenden, Wallace B. 1999. Sierra Nevada forests: Where did they come from? Where are they going? What 

does it mean?. In: McCabe, Richard E.; Loos, Samantha E., eds. Transactions of the 64th North American Wildlife and Natural 

Resource Conference; March 26-30, 1999; Burlingame, California. Washington, D.C.: Wildlife Management Institute. pp. 206-236. 

Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model 



Author Christopher Daly 



495 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract Simulating the impact of fire in a broad-scale Dynamic Vegetation Model (DGVM) used for global change 

impact assessments requires components and concepts not part of existing fire modeling systems. The focus 

shifts from fire behavior and danger at the small scale to the system-specific impacts of fire at the broad scale 

(i.e., fire severity). MCFIRE, a broad-scale fire severity model we are currently developing as part of our 

MAPSS-CENTURY DGVM, simulates the occurrence and impacts (i.e., vegetation mortality and fuel 

consumption) of relatively infrequent and extreme events historically responsible for the majority of fire 

disturbance to ecosystems. The occurrence of severe fire is strongly related to synoptic-scale climatic conditions 

producing extended drought, which is indicated in MCFIRE by the low moisture content of large dead fuels. 

Due to constraints posed by currently available datasets, we have been developing our DGVM model on a 

relatively fine-scale data grid at a landscape-scale, but we will implement the model at regional to global scales 

on much coarser data grids. Constraints on the broad-scale impact of severe fire imposed by the fine-scale 

heterogeneity of fuel properties will be represented in our coarse-scale simulations by sub-grid 

parameterizations of the fire behavior and effects algorithms for distinct land surface types. Ecosystem structure 

and function are often constrained by disturbance, so it is critical to include disturbance processes in dynamic 

vegetation models used to assess the potential broad-scale impact of global change. The ability to simulate the 

impact of changes in fire severity on vegetation and the atmosphere has been a central focus in the development 

of the MAPSS-Century Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. 

Publication Northwest Science 

Volume 72 

Issue Special Issue 1 

Pages 91–103 

Date 1998 

Journal Abbr NW Sci. 

ISSN 0029-344X 

URL http://www.fsl.orst.edu/dgvm/pub1.htm 

Archive http://www.vetmed.wsu.edu/org_nws/NWSci%20journal%20articles/1998%20files/1998%20Vol%2072.htm 

Extra About Us: Dynamic Vegetation Models—MC1: http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/mdr/mapss/about/dvm/mc.shtml 



Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type 

ecosystem 



Author Serge Rambal 

Author Richard Joffre 

Abstract The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean-type ecosystems may result from complex interactions 

between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to 

changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a 

simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies 

functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of 

vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical 

maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a 

change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are 

defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a 

decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic 

changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the 

drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, 

emphasizing a long-term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare 

events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive 

fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase 

in fire frequency leads to shrub-dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep 

drainage and runoff. 


Volume 8 

496 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Issue 5 

Pages 423–437 

Date May 2002 


DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00494.x 

ISSN 1365-2486 


Extra Keywords: climate change; fire regime; Mediterranean-type ecosystem; process-based simulation model. 



Simulating the effects of future fire regimes on western Canadian boreal forests 



Author Peter M. Bothwell 

Author D. H. Carlsson 


Abstract Effects of future fire regimes on boreal tree species and plant functional types were studied in W Canada using 

a simulation approach. Present (1975–1990) and future (2080–2100) fire regimes were simulated using data 

from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM1). The long-term effects of these fire regimes were simulated 

using a stand level, boreal fire effects model (BORFIRE) developed for this study. Changes in forest 

composition and biomass storage due to future altered fire regimes were determined by comparing the effects of 

present and future fire regimes on forest stands over a 400-yr period. Differences in the two scenarios after 400 

yr indicate shifting trends in forest composition and biomass that can be expected as a result of future changes 

in the fire regime. The ecological impacts of altered fire regimes are discussed in terms of general plant 

functional types. The Canadian Global Coupled Model showed more severe burning conditions under future fire 

regimes including fires with greater intensity, greater depth of burn and greater total fuel consumption. Shorter 

fire cycles estimated for the future generally favoured species which resprout (fire endurers) or store seed (fire 

evaders). Species with no direct fire survival traits (fire avoiders) declined under shorter fire cycles. The 

moderately thick barked trait of fire resisters provided little additional advantage in crown fire dominated boreal 

forests. Many species represent PFTs with multiple fire survival traits. The fire evader and avoider PFT was 

adaptable to the widest range of fire cycles. There was a general increase in biomass storage under the simulated 

future fire regimes caused by a shift in species composition towards fast-growing re-sprouting species. 

Long-term biomass storage was lower in fire exclusion simulations because some stands were unable to 

reproduce in the absence of fire. 


Volume 14 

Issue 3 

Pages 355–364 



DOI 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2003.tb02161.x 

ISSN 1100-9233 


Extra Keywords: biomass; climate change; fire effects; forest composition;plant functional type. 



Sir Gilbert Walker and a connection between El Niño and statistics 


Author Richard W. Katz 

497 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Abstract The eponym “Walker Circulation” refers to a concept used by atmospheric scientists and oceanographers in 

providing a physical explanation for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, whereas the eponym 

“Yule–Walker equations” refers to properties satisfied by the autocorrelations of an autoregressive process. But 

how many statisticians (or, for that matter, atmospheric scientists) are aware that the “Walker” in both terms 

refers to the same individual, Sir Gilbert ThomasWalker, and that these two appellations arose in conjunction 

with the same research on the statistical prediction of climate? Like George Udny Yule (the “Yule” in 

Yule–Walker), Walker’s motivation was to devise a statistical model that exhibited quasiperiodic behavior. The 

original assessments of Walker’s work, both in the meteorology and in statistics, were somewhat negative.With 

hindsight, it is argued that his research should be viewed as quite successful. 

Publication Statistical Science 

Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 97–112 

Date May 2002 

Journal Abbr Stat. Sci. 

DOI 10.1214/ss/1023799000 

ISSN 0883-4237 

URL http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS? 

service=UI&… 

Extra Keywords: autoregressive process; quasiperiodic behavior; Southern Oscillation; teleconnections; Yule–Walker 

equations. 



Slow release of fossil carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 


Author Ying Cui 

Author Lee R. Kump 

Author Andy J. Ridgwell 

Author Adam J. Charles 

Author Christopher K. Junium 

Author Aaron F. Diefendorf 

Author Katherine H. Freeman 

Author Nathan M. Urban 

Author Ian C. Harding 

Abstract The transient global warming event known as the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred about 55.9 

Myr ago. The warming was accompanied by a rapid shift in the isotopic signature of sedimentary carbonates, 

suggesting that the event was triggered by a massive release of carbon to the ocean–atmosphere system. 

However, the source, rate of emission and total amount of carbon involved remain poorly constrained. Here we 

use an expanded marine sedimentary section from Spitsbergen to reconstruct the carbon isotope excursion as 

recorded in marine organic matter. We find that the total magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion in the 

ocean–atmosphere system was about 4‰. We then force an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to 

conform to our isotope record, allowing us to generate a continuous estimate of the rate of carbon emissions to 

the atmosphere. Our simulations show that the peak rate of carbon addition was probably in the range of 

0.3–1.7 Pg C yr⁻¹, much slower than the present rate of carbon emissions. 


Volume 4 

Issue 7 

Pages 481–485 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo1179 

ISSN 1752-0894 

498 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM





Small interannual variability of global atmospheric hydroxyl 



Author Maarten Krol 

Author Edward Dlugokencky 

Author Bradley Hall 

Author Patrick Jockel 

Author Jos Lelieveld 

Abstract The oxidizing capacity of the global atmosphere is largely determined by hydroxyl (OH) radicals and is 

diagnosed by analyzing methyl chloroform (CH₃CCl₃) measurements. Previously, large year-to-year changes in 

global mean OH concentrations have been inferred from such measurements, suggesting that the atmospheric 

oxidizing capacity is sensitive to perturbations by widespread air pollution and natural influences. We show how 

the interannual variability in OH has been more precisely estimated from CH₃CCl₃ measurements since 1998, 

when atmospheric gradients of CH₃CCl₃ had diminished as a result of the Montreal Protocol. We infer a small 

interannual OH variability as a result, indicating that global OH is generally well buffered against perturbations. 

This small variability is consistent with measurements of methane and other trace gases oxidized primarily by 

OH, as well as global photochemical model calculations. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6013 

Pages 67-69 



DOI 10.1126/science.1197640 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation in a forested debris flow chronosequence, California 


Author Judith K. Turk 

Author Robert C. Graham 

Abstract The role of forest soils in the biogeochemical cycling of C and N is most dynamic during the early stages of soil 

development. To define C and N trends that occur with soil development in a mixed coniferous forest, a 

chronosequence formed by debris flows was studied. The accumulation rates of total organic C (TOC) and total 

N (TN) were evaluated in soils on 10 debris flow deposits, ranging from


Volume 73 

Issue 5 

Pages 1504-1509 

Date September–October 2009 

Journal Abbr Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 

DOI 10.2136/sssaj2008.0106 

ISSN 0361-5995 

URL https://www-soils-org/publications/sssaj/abstracts/73/5/1504 



Soil morphology of a debris flow chronosequence in a coniferous forest, southern California, USA 


Author Judith K. Turk 

Author Brett R. Goforth 

Author Robert C. Graham 

Author Katherine J. Kendrick 

Abstract Soils on a series of debris flow deposits, ranging from < 1 to 244 years old, were described and sampled in order 

to investigate the early stages of soil development. The parent material at the site is debris flow regolith, 

composed mainly of gneiss, the soil moisture regime is xeric, and the vegetation is mixed coniferous forest. Ages 

of the deposits were assessed using dendrochronology. Morphologic trends in the organic horizons included a 

thickening of the humus form over time, along with the development of Fm and Hr horizons. The humus forms 

underwent a progression from Mormodors (20 years old), to Hemimors (26–101 years old), and finally 

Lignomors (163 years old) and Resimors (184–244 years old). Changes in physical properties of the uppermost 

mineral horizons as a function of increasing age included a decrease in the volume of coarse fragments, a linear 

decrease in bulk density, and a darkening and reddening of the soil color. No significant soil development took 

place in the subsoil during the time span of this chronosequence. The soils described were classified as Typic 

Xerofluvents and Typic Xerorthents (Regosols and Leptosols). Buried A horizons were observed in many of the 

soils. Where the A horizons could be linked to dendrochronology to assess the age of the buried surface, we 

found that the properties of the buried A horizons do not serve as a good indicator of the age of the surface. 

This study suggests rapid development of the humus form profile (organic horizons and A horizon) following 

debris flow deposition and rapid degradation of these horizons when the debris flow surface is buried. 

Publication Geoderma (A Global Journal of Soil Science) 

Volume 146 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 157–165 


Journal Abbr Geoderma 

DOI 10.1016/j.geoderma.2008.05.012 

ISSN 0016-7061 


Extra Keywords: bulk density; buried soils; chronosequences; entisols; mor; pedogenesis; soil color. 



Solar influences on climate 


Author Lesley J. Gray 

Author Jürg Beer 

Author Marvin Geller 

500 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Author Joanna D. Haigh 

Author Michael Lockwood 

Author Katja Matthes 

Author Ulrich Cubasch 

Author Dominik Fleitmann 

Author Giles Harrison 

Author Lon Hood 



Author Drew Shindell 

Author Bas van Geel 

Author Warren White 

Abstract Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, 

solar-terrestrial interactions, and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth's climate system. We 

provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas. Observations and mechanisms for 

the Sun's variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial time 

scales and their relation to galactic cosmic rays. Corresponding observations of variations of the Earth's climate 

on associated time scales are described, including variations in ozone, temperatures, winds, clouds, 

precipitation, and regional modes of variability such as the monsoons and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A 

discussion of the available solar and climate proxies is provided. Mechanisms proposed to explain these climate 

observations are described, including the effects of variations in solar irradiance and of charged particles. 

Finally, the contributions of solar variations to recent observations of global climate change are discussed. 


Volume 48 

Issue 4 

Pages RG4001 (53 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009RG000282 

ISSN 8755-1209 


Extra Keywords: solar; climate; variability. 



Some 1929 fire-weather comparisons 


Author E. M. Keyser 

Abstract The season of 1929 holds a unique place in fire-weather historv in United States district forest No. 1. This 

District comprises northeastern Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, and northwestern South Dakota. Since 

forest fire records have been tabulated, the last 32years, the four seasons, 1910, 1919, 1926, and 1929 are 

outstanding. These four years account for 87 per cent of the fire losses in the district since 1907. 


Volume 58 

Issue 9 

Pages 365-368 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1930)582.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281930%2958%3C365b%3ASFC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 


501 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM



Southern Oscillation anomalies and their relationship to wildfire activity in Florida 


Author Jim Brenner 

Abstract Some relationships between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and wildfire in Florida are examined. 

Unlike many ENSO/wildfire studies to date, no particular emphasis was placed on the positive side of the 

ENSO. Both the positive and negative sides were equally examined. Linear correlation coefficients, scatter 

diagrams and line graphs are constructed to compare acres burned with indices of central and eastern Pacific 

sea surface temperature and pressure anomalies. The study reveals a significant relationship between anomalous 

sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures in the central and eastern Pacific, and acres burned in Florida 

due to wildfires. The typical fire season in Florida is during the winter months, and the best correlation 

coefficient ("r" 0.7 1) was derived from the average central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly for the 

period January through May, indicating it correlated with up to 50% of the variance in acres burned during the 

years examined. The study further suggests that it may be possible to develop a predictive model for wildfire 

activity in Florida, based on observed anomalies of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure in the central 

and eastern Pacific. 


Volume 1 

Issue 1 

Pages 73-78 



DOI 10.1071/WF9910073 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: El Nino; weather; ENSO; climate; Florida; wildfire. 



Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA 


Author Katarzyna Grala 

Author William H. Cooke 

Abstract Forests constitute a large percentage of the total land area in Mississippi and are a vital element of the state 

economy. Although wildfire occurrences have been considerably reduced since the 1920s, there are still ~4000 

wildfires each year in Mississippi burning over 24 000 ha (60 000 acres). This study focusses on recent history 

and various characteristics of Mississippi wildfires to provide better understanding of spatial and temporal 

characteristics of wildfires in the state. Geographic information systems and Mississippi Forestry Commission 

wildfire occurrence data were used to examine relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors, the 

incidence, burned area, wildfire cause, and socioeconomic factors. The analysis indicated that wildfires are 

more frequent in southern Mississippi, in counties covered mostly by pine forest, and are most prominent in the 

winter–spring season. Proximity to roads and cities were two anthropogenic factors that had the most 

statistically significant correlation with wildfire occurrence and size. In addition, the validity of the Palmer 

Drought Severity Index as a measure of fire activity was tested for climatic districts in Mississippi. Analysis 

indicated that drought influences fire numbers and size during summer and fall (autumn). The strongest 

relationship between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and burned area was found for the southern climatic 

districts for the summer–fall season. 


Volume 19 

Issue 1 

Pages 14-28 

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DOI 10.1071/WF08104 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: fire potential; GIS; spatial pattern analysis; wildfire history. 



Spatial and temporal variation of fire regimes in a mixed conifer forest landscape, Southern Cascades, 





Abstract • Aim: In this study, we evaluated the fire-forest mosaic of a mixed conifer forest landscape by testing the 

hypothesis that pre-fire suppression fire regime parameters vary with species composition (tree species), and 

environment (i.e. slope aspect, slope position, elevation). • Location: Our study was conducted in the 1587 ha 

Cub Creek Research Natural Area (CCRNA), Lassen National Forest, CA, USA. • Methods: We quantified the 

return interval, seasonal occurrence, size, rotation period, and severity of fires using dendroecology. • Results: 

Slope aspect, potential soil moisture, forest composition, and fire regime parameters in our study area co-vary. 

Median composite and point fire return intervals (FRI) were longest on higher, cooler, more mesic, north-facing 

(NF) slopes covered with white fir (Abies concolor), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)–white fir, and red fir 

(A. magnifica)–white fir forests, shortest on the dry, south-facing (SF) slopes covered with ponderosa pine 

(Pinus ponderosa)–white fir forests and intermediate on west-facing slopes dominated by white fir–sugar pine 

(P. lambertiana)–incense cedar (Libocedrus decurrens) forests. The spatial pattern for length of fire rotation 

(FR) was the same as that for FRI. Fires in CCRNA mixed conifer forests occurred mainly (90%) in the 

dormant season. Size of burns in CCRNA mixed conifer forests were generally small (mean=106 ha), however, 

during certain drought years widespread fires burned across fuel breaks and spread throughout the watershed. 

Fire severity was mainly high on upper slopes, low on lower slopes and moderate and low severity on middle 

slopes. Patterns of fire severity also varied with slope aspect. Fire frequency decreased dramatically in CCRNA 

after 1905. • Conclusions: In CCRNA, fire regime parameters [e.g. FRI, fire extent, FR, fire severity] varied 

widely with species composition, slope aspect and slope position. There was also temporal variation in fire 

extent with the most widespread fires occurring during drought years. The important contributions of 

topography and climate to variation in the fire regime indicates that exogenous factors play a key role in shaping 

the fire-forest structure mosaic and that the fire-forest structure mosaic is more variable, less predictable and 

less stable than previously thought. Finally, some characteristics of the fire regime (i.e. fire severity, season of 

burn) in CCRNA are different than those described for other mixed conifer forests and this suggests that there 

are geographical differences in mixed conifer fire regimes along the Pacific slope. 


Volume 28 

Issue 8 

Pages 955-966 



DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2001.00591.x 

ISSN 1365-2699 


Extra Keywords: fire regimes; mixed conifer forest; dendroecology; disturbance; California. 



Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: A multiscale example from the interior West, USA 

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Abstract Our objective was to infer the controls of spatial variation in historical fire regimes. We reconstructed a 

multicentury history of fire frequency, size, season, and severity from fire scars and establishment dates of 1426 

trees sampled on grids in four watersheds (64 plots, over 1620 ha each) representative of the Blue Mountains, 

Oregon and Washington, USA. The influence of regional climate, a top-down control, was inferred from amongwatershed 

variation in fire regimes, while the influence of local topography, a bottom-up control, was inferred 

from within-watershed variation. Before about 1900, fire regimes varied among and within watersheds, 

suggesting that both top-down and bottom-up controls were important. At the regional scale, dry forests 

(dominated by ponderosa pine), burned twice as frequently and earlier in the growing season in southern 

watersheds than in northern watersheds, consistent with longer and drier fire seasons to the south. Mesic forests 

(dominated by subalpine fir or grand fir) probably also burned more frequently to the south. At the local scale, 

fire frequency varied with different parameters of topography in watersheds with steep terrain, but not in the 

watershed with gentle terrain. Frequency varied with aspect in watersheds where topographic facets are 

separated by significant barriers to fire spread, but not in watersheds where such facets interfinger without fire 

barriers. Frequency varied with elevation where elevation and aspect interact to create gradients in snow-cover 

duration and also where steep talus interrupts fuel continuity. Frequency did not vary with slope within any 

watershed. The presence of both regional-scale and local-scale variation in the Blue Mountains suggests that 

top-down and bottom-up controls were both important and acted simultaneously to influence fire regimes in the 

past. However, an abrupt decline in fire frequency around 1900 was much greater than any regional or local 

variation in the previous several centuries and indicates that 20th-century fire regimes in these watersheds were 

dramatically affected by additional controls such as livestock grazing and fire suppression. Our results 

demonstrate the usefulness of examining spatial variation in historical fire regimes across scales as a means for 

inferring their controls. 


Volume 82 

Issue 3 

Pages 660-678 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[0660:SCOHFR]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 

Short Title Spatial controls of historical fire regimes 


/0012-9658%282001%29082%5B0660%3ASCOHFR%5D2.0.CO%3B2? 


Extra Keywords: bottom-up; climate; dendrochronology; fire history; landscape ecology; local scale; Oregon; regional 

scale; top-down; topography; Washington. 



Spatial modeling of forest landscape change: Approaches and applications 

Type Book 

Editor David J. Mladenoff 

Editor William L. Baker 

Abstract Description: In this unique volume, key researchers present newly emerging approaches to computer simulation 

models of large, forest landscapes. Over the past decade the field of landscape ecology has developed rapidly, 

focusing on the need to address ecological research and management at large spatial scales, and longer temporal 

domains. There is also great attention being focused on the use and management of forests throughout the 

world, particularly on issues such as longterm sustainability, ecosystem management, and biodiversity 

protection. These models have the potential to help answer research and management questions through 

simulation experiments that have not, in the past, considered spatial interactions among ecological processes 

and human activities at broad scales. Representing a rapidly emerging area in the field of landscape ecology, this 

volume will be of value to ecologists, forest and natural resource managers, as well as wildlife biologists and 

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conservationists. 




Date 1999 


ISBN 9780521631228, 052163122X 

Short Title Spatial modeling of forest landscape change 

URL http://landscape.forest.wisc.edu/spatmod_chaps.asp 

Archive http://books.google.com/books?id=mfIlUpuumMsC& 



Spatial pattern analyses of post-fire residual stands in the black spruce boreal forest of western Quebec 


Author Amar Madoui 

Author Alain Leduc 



Abstract In this study, we characterised the composition and configuration of post-fire residual habitats belonging to two 

physiographic zones of the black spruce–moss domain in western Quebec. Thirty-three large fires (2000–52 000 

ha) were selected and extracted on classified Landsat satellite imagery. The results show that a minimum of 2% 

and a maximum of 22% of burned areas escaped fire, with an overall average of 10.4%. The many forest 

patches that partially or entirely escaped fire formed residual habitats (RHs). It was found that although the area 

of RHs follows a linear relationship with fire size, their proportion appears relatively constant. Spatial analyses 

showed that the fires could be separated into two groups depending on the physiographic zones (East-Canadian 

Shield v. West-Clay Belt Lowlands). Fires in the west zone generate less RHs and appear to be associated with 

more extreme weather conditions. In most cases there was no association with water or wetlands; in some fires 

the presence of RHs is associated with the proximity of water bodies. The failure to find an association between 

RHs and wetlands suggests that this type of environment is part of the fuel. Coniferous woodland with moss 

appears particularly overrepresented within RHs. Our results suggest that the local and regional physiographic 

conditions strongly influence the creation of RHs; therefore, it is important to consider those differences when 

applying ecosystem-based management. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1110–1126 



DOI 10.1071/WF10049 

ISSN 1448-5516 


Extra Keywords: fire pattern; physiographic zone; satellite imagery. 



Spatial patterns and controls on historical fire regimes and forest structure in the Klamath Mountains 




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Abstract Fire exclusion in mixed conifer forests has increased the risk of fire due to decades of fuel accumulation. 

Restoration of fire into altered forests is a challenge because of a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal 

dynamics of fire regimes. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest age 

structure are reconstructed in a 2325-ha mixed conifer forest in the Klamath Mountains. Forests were 

multiaged and burned frequently at low and moderate severity, but forest age structure did not vary with aspect, 

elevation, or topographic position. Recently there has been an increase in forest density and a forest 

compositional shift to shade-tolerant species. Median fire return intervals (FRI) ranged from 11.5 to 16.5 yr 

and varied with aspect but not with forest composition or elevation. The median area burned was 106 ha, and 

the pre-Euro-American fire rotation of 19 yr increased to 238 yr after 1905. Intra-annual position of fire scars in 

the tree rings indicates that 93% of fires occurred during the dry midsummer through fall period. Spatial patterns 

of sites with similar fire dates were spatially coherent and separated from others by topographic features that 

influence fire spread. Thus, patterns of fire occurrence tended to be fixed in space with timing of fires varying 

among groups of sites. Spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence suggest that managers using physical 

features to contain prescribed fire will create burn patterns consistent with historical fires in the Klamath 

Mountains. 


Volume 13 

Issue 3 

Pages 704–719 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0704:SPACOH]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 

URL http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/1051-0761%282003%29013%5B0704:SPACOH%5D2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: California; dendroecology; fire history; fire regimes; forest age structure; landscape ecology; 

landscape structure; mixed conifer forest. 



Spatial patterns of forest fires in Canada, 1980–1999 



Author Vernon S. Peters 

Author Yonghe Wang 

Author John M. Little 



Abstract The present study characterized the spatial patterns of forest fires in 10 fire-dominated ecozones of Canada by 

using a database of mapped fires ≥200 ha from 1980 to 1999 (n = 5533 fires). Spatial metrics were used 

individually to compare measures of fire size, shape (eccentricity and complexity), clustering, and geographic 

orientation among ecozones and were used concurrently in a multivariate analysis. In addition, a set of factors 

that influence the fire regime at the ecozone level – topography, climate, fuels, and anthropogenic factors – was 

compared with the metric outputs. We found significant differences in all spatial metrics among ecozones. The 

multivariate analysis showed that the Montane Cordillera ecozone, which covers most of British Columbia, had 

the most distinctive fires: its fires were smaller, less complex, and had a more regular distribution. The fire 

regime descriptors of ecozones were useful to interpret the spatial variation of some spatial metrics, such as fire 

size, eccentricity, and clustering, but provided little insight into the mechanisms of patterns of fire complexity, 

which were shown to be sensitive to data quality. Our results provide additional information about the creation 

of spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Furthermore, they illustrate the potential use of spatial metrics for a more 

detailed characterization of fire regimes and provide novel information for ecosystems-based land management. 


Volume 15 

Issue 3 

Pages 361–374 


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DOI 10.1071/WF06009 

ISSN 1448-5516 

URL http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF06009.htm 

Extra Keywords: ecozones; spatial scale. 



Spatial scaling in ecology 


Author John A. Wiens 

Abstract no abstrtact 


Volume 3 

Issue 4 

Pages 385–397 

Date 1989 


DOI 10.2307/2389612 

ISSN 1365-2435 




Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems 



Author Tadashi J. Moody 




Abstract Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is 

needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern 

California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire 

weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of 

where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also 

analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our 

models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of 

information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation 

will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone 

landscapes. 


Volume 37 

Issue 4 

Pages L04801 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009GL041735 

ISSN 0094-8276 


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Extra Keywords: extreme fire weather; Santa Ana winds; chaparral ecosystems. 



Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000 


Author Andrea Meyn 

Author Sebastian Schmidtlein 

Author Stephen W. Taylor 




Abstract Owing to large climatic and orographic variation, British Columbia covers a variety of ecosystems extending 

from temperate rainforests on the Pacific coast to boreal forests in the north-east. The aim of this study is to 

investigate the spatial variation of trends in wildfire activity and their relationship to summer drought for the 

entire province of British Columbia. Time series of annual wildfire extent and occurrence, summer 

self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and summer Aridity Index were derived from spatially explicit 

data. Sixteen landscape regions according to the provincial Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification system 

served as spatial reference. The regional series for 1920–2000 were subjected to trend analysis. Correlations 

between area burned and summer drought were assessed and tested for significance. The observed decrease in 

wildfire activity is significantly related to wetter summers with the strength of the relationship considerably 

varying between British Columbia’s landscapes. Our results suggest that aggregated statistics for large regions 

with complex topography and climate can hide the spatial variation in direction and strength of changes and 

may accordingly obscure the relationship between fire and drought. Based on high-spatial-resolution data, our 

study is the first to provide a differentiated picture for British Columbia. 


Volume 19 

Issue 3 

Pages 272-283 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1071/WF09055 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: area burned; Aridity Index; BEC; fire frequency; PDSI; self-calibrating PDSI. 



Spatially-explicit simulation of the effect of prescribed burning on fire regimes and plant extinctions in 

shrublands typical of south-eastern Australia 


Author R. A. Bradstock 

Author M. Bedward 

Author Belinda J. Kenny 

Author Judith Scott 

Abstract A spatial model was used to simulate plant extinction in relation to prescribed burning in fire-prone shrublands. 

Prescribed burning may be used to manipulate fuel to levels that are sub-critical for fire-spread in extreme 

weather. Effects of variation in area of annual prescribed burning on area of unplanned fires occurring under 

severe weather and the probability of extinction in three functional groups of shrubs (serotinous and leguminous 

obligate seeders and serotinous resprouters) were examined. Results of 200 year simulations indicated that 

restriction of the size of unplanned fires occurred when large (> 30%) areas of the landscape were burnt 

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annually. Risk of extinction in obligate seeders was high at such levels of prescribed burning. Extinction 

probability was also positively related to frequency of unplanned fires. In resprouters, risk of extinction was 

unaffected by prescribed fire. The model predicts that passive restriction of unplanned fires in extreme weather, 

by prescribed burning, is incompatible with floristic conservation objectives. 

Publication Biological Conservation 

Volume 86 

Issue 1 

Pages 83-95 


Journal Abbr Biol. Conserv. 

DOI 10.1016/S0006-3207(97)00170-5 

ISSN 0006-3207 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V5X-3TP5RMP-9/2/4c896646e45051052c6af84ac1b005ec 

Extra Keywords: extinction; prescribed burning; cellular model. 



Spatio-temporal patterns of large grassland fires in the Intermountain West, USA 



Abstract The spatial and temporal occurrence of large grassland fires (>2008 ha) in the Intermountain West was 

examined for the period 1980 through 1995. Results suggest that these fires are largely predictable through 

space and time. Of the 360 large fires, 339 occurred within eight regions as defined by clustering of fires within 

physiographic boundaries. These regions were characterized by their abundance of exotic annual grasses and 

flatter terrain that provided continuous fine-fuel conditions that promoted fire spread. Temporally, the likelihood 

of a large fire is correlated with summer moisture conditions (Z-index values) in the year preceding that of the 

fire that are either near-normal or wetter. Conversely,


Author Bonnie K. Ray 

Abstract Presented are investigations into the spatial structure of teleconnections between both the winter El 

Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and a measure of continental 

U.S. summer drought during the twentieth century. Potential nonlinearities and nonstationarities in the 

relationships are noted. During the first three decades of this century, summer drought teleconnections in 

response to SST patterns linked to ENSO are found to be strongest in the southern regions of Texas, with 

extensions into regions of the Midwest. From the 1930s through the 1950s, the drought teleconnection pattern is 

found to extend into southern Arizona. The most recent three decades show weak teleconnections between 

summer drought over southern Texas and Arizona, and winter SSTs, which is consistent with previous findings. 

Instead, the response to Pacific SSTs shows a clear shift to the western United States and southern regions of 

California. These epochal variations are consistent with epochal variations observed in ENSO and other 

low-frequency climate indicators. This changing teleconnection response complicates statistical forecasting of 

drought. 

Publication Journal of climate 

Volume 13 

Issue 24 

Pages 4244–4255 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0442 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175 

/1520-0442%282000%29013%3C4244%3ASVOEAS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Special paper: A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and 

climate 






Author Robert A. Monserud 

Author Allen M. Solomon 

Abstract A model to predict global patterns in vegetation physiognomy was developed from physiological considerations 

influencing the distributions of different functional types of plant. Primary driving variables are mean 

coldest- month temperature, annual accumulated temeprature over 5°C, and a drought index incorporating the 

seasonality of precipitation and the available water capacity of the soil. The model predicts which plant types 

can occur in a given environment, and selects the potentially dominant types from among them. Biomes arise as 

combinations of dominant types. Global environmental data were supplied as monthly means of temperature, 

precipitation and sunshine (interpolated to a global 0.5° grid, with a lapse-rate correction) and soil texture class. 

The resulting predictions of global vegetation patterns were in good agreement with the mapped distribution of 

actual ecosystem complexes (Olson, J.S., Watts, J.A. & Allison, L.J. (1983) ORNL-5862, Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., 

164 pp.), except where intensive agriculture has obliterated the natural patterns. The model will help in 

assessing impacts of future climate changes on potential natural vegetation patterns, land-surface characteristics 

and terrestrial carbon storage, and in analysis of the effects of past climate change on these variables. 


Volume 19 

Issue 2 

Pages 117–134 



ISSN 0305-0270 

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Short Title Special paper 


Extra Keywords: biome; carbon cycle; climate change; map comparison; plant functional types. 



Special paper: The Holdridge life zones of the conterminous United States in relation to ecosystem 

mapping 


Author Ariel E. Lugo 

Author Sandra L. Brown 

Author Rusty Dodson 

Author Thomas S. Smith 


Abstract • Aim: Our main goals were to develop a map of the life zones for the conterminous United States, based on the 

Holdridge Life Zone system, as a tool for ecosystem mapping, and to compare the map of Holdridge life zones 

with other global vegetation classification and mapping efforts. • Location: The area of interest is the forty-eight 

contiguous states of the United States. • Methods: We wrote a PERL program for determining life zones from 

climatic data and linked it to the image processing workbench (IPW). The inputs were annual precipitation 

(Pann), biotemperature (Tjbo), sea-level biotemperature (Tobjo), and the frost line. The spatial resolution 

chosen for this study (2.5 arc-minute for classification, 4-km for mapping) was driven by the availability of 

current state-of-the-art, accurate and reliable precipitation data. We used the Precipitation-elevation 

Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM, output for the contiguous United States downloaded from 

the Internet. The accepted standard data for air temperature surfaces were obtained from the 

Vegetation/Ecosystem Modelling and Analysis Project (VEMAP). This data set along with station data obtained 

from the National Climatic Data Center for the US, were used to develop all temperature surfaces at the same 

resolution as the Pann. • Results: The US contains thirty-eight life zones (34% of the world's life zones and 85% 

of the temperate ones) including one boreal, twelve cool temperate, twenty warm temperate, four subtropical, 

and one tropical. Seventy-four percent of the US falls in the 'basal belt', 18% is montane, 8% is subalpine, 1% is 

alpine, and < 0.1% is nival. The US ranges from supcrarid to superhumid, and the humid province is the largest 

(45% of the US). The most extensive life zone is the warm temperate moist forest, which covers 23 % of the 

country. We compared the Holdridge life zone map with output from the BIOME model, Bailey's ecoregions, 

Ktichler potential vegetation, and land cover, all aggregated to four cover classes. Despite differences in the 

goals and methods for all these classification systems, there was a very good to excellent agreement among 

them for forests but poor for grasslands, shrublands, and nonvegetated lands. • Main conclusions: We consider 

the life zone approach to have many strengths for ecosystem mapping because it is based on climatic driving 

factors of ecosystem processes and recognizes ecophysiological responses of plants; it is hierarchical and allows 

for the use of other mapping criteria at the association and successional levels of analysis; it can be expanded or 

contracted without losing functional continuity among levels of ecological complexity; it is a relatively simple 

system based on few empirical data; and it uses objective mapping criteria. 


Volume 26 

Issue 5 

Pages 1025–1038 



ISSN 0305-0270 

Short Title Special Paper 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem management; frost line; Holdridge; life zones; United States; vegetation mapping. 



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Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change 

Type Book 

Editor Nebojsa Nakicenovic 

Editor Robert Swart 






ISBN 0521804930, 978-0521804936 

Short Title Special report on emissions scenarios 

URL http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/? 

src=/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm 


Extra Subject: 54 environmental sciences; 29 energy planning, policy and economy; climatic change; 

recommendations; air pollution; environmental policy 



Notes: 

Contents: 

Foreword 

Preface 

Summary for policymakers 

Technical Summary 

Chapters 

Chapter 1: Background and Overview 

Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature 

Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces 

Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios 

Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios 

Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations 

Appendices index 

I: SRES Terms of Reference: New IPCC Emission Scenarios 

II: SRES Writing Team and SRES Reviewers 

III: Definition of SRES World Region 

IV: Six Modeling Approaches 

V: Database Description 

VI: Open Process 

VII Data tables 

VIII Acronyms and Abbreviations 

IX Chemical Symbols 

X Units 

XI Glossary of Terms 

XII List of Major IPCC Reports 

Spring flowering response to climate change between 1936 and 2006 in Alberta, Canada 


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Author Elisabeth Beaubien 

Author Andreas Hamann 

Abstract In documenting biological responses to climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has 

used phenology studies from many parts of the world, but data from the high latitudes of North America are 

missing. In the present article, we evaluate climate trends and the corresponding changes in sequential bloom 

times for seven plant species in the central parklands of Alberta, Canada (latitude 52°–57° north). For the study 

period of 71 years (1936–2006), we found a substantial warming signal, which ranged from an increase of 5.3 

degrees Celsius (°C) in the mean monthly temperatures for February to an increase of 1.5°C in those for May. 

The earliest-blooming species' (Populus tremuloides and Anemone patens) bloom dates advanced by two weeks 

during the seven decades, whereas the later-blooming species' bloom dates advanced between zero and six days. 

The early-blooming species' bloom dates advanced faster than was predicted by thermal time models, which we 

attribute to decreased diurnal temperature fluctuations. This unexpectedly sensitive response results in an 

increased exposure to late-spring frosts. 


Volume 61 

Issue 7 

Pages 514-524 



DOI 10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.6 

ISSN 1525-3244 

URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/info/10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.6 

Extra Keywords: climate change; global warming; phenology; flowering; Canada. 



Spruce beetles and fires in the nineteenth-century subalpine forests of western Colorado, U.S.A. 




Abstract We analyzed 17 photographs, taken between 1873 and 1915, that illustrate widespread mortality in subalpine 

forests of western Colorado. Eight of these photographs, reproduced here, contain three general patterns of 

mortality, interpreted to result from spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) attacks, fires, and wind. Tree-ring 

chronologies at four of the sites corroborated the role of spruce beetle in killing the trees visible in the 

photographs. The photographs and tree-ring dates suggest that the spruce beetle outbreak occurred between the 

1850s and the 1880s, and affected forests from central New Mexico to north-central Colorado. Spruce beetle 

outbreaks are a significant type of natural disturbance in these forests. The relative contribution of beetles and 

fires to subalpine forest structure is in need of further research. The sequence and spatial configuration of 

disturbances by spruce beetles, fire, and wind varies, and can be spatially heterogeneous, even on small land 

areas. In such areas, forest responses to uniformly applied disturbance controls (e.g., fire suppression) will be 

spatially heterogeneous, not affecting all parts of the landscape uniformly. 

Publication Arctic and Alpine Research 

Volume 22 

Issue 1 

Pages 65-80 


Journal Abbr Arct. Alp. Res. 

DOI 10.2307/1551721 

ISSN 0004-0851 




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State of the climate in 2009 


Editor Derek S. Arndt 

Editor Molly O. Baringer 

Editor Michael R. Johnson 

Abstract The year was characterized by a transition from a waning La Niña to a strengthening El Niño, which first 

developed in June. By December, SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average over large parts of the central and 

eastern equatorial Pacific. Eastward surface current anomalies, associated with the El Niño, were strong across 

the equatorial Pacific, reaching values similar to the 2002 El Niño during November and December 2009. The 

transition from La Niña to El Niño strongly influenced anomalies in many climate conditions, ranging from 

reduced Atlantic basin hurricane activity to large scale surface and tropospheric warmth. Global average surface 

and lower-troposphere temperatures during the last three decades have been progressively warmer than all 

earlier decades, and the 2000s (2000–09) was the warmest decade in the instrumental record. This warming has 

been particularly apparent in the mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and includes 

decadal records in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Europe, and the Arctic. The stratosphere continued a long 

cooling trend, except in the Arctic. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, with CO₂ 

increasing at a rate above the 1978 to 2008 average. The global ocean CO₂ uptake flux for 2008, the most 

recent year for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to have been 1.23 Pg C yr⁻¹, which is 0.25 Pg C 

yr⁻¹ smaller than the long-term average and the lowest estimated ocean uptake in the last 27 years. At the same 

time, the total global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon stored in the ocean interior as of 2008 suggests 

an uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO₂ at rates of 2.0 and 2.3 ±0.6 Pg C yr⁻¹ for the decades of the 1990s 

and 2000s, respectively. Total-column ozone concentrations are still well below pre-1980 levels but have seen a 

recent reduction in the rate of decline while upper-stratospheric ozone showed continued signs of ongoing slow 

recovery in 2009. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to decline although some halogens such as 

hydrochlorofluorocarbons are increasing globally. The 2009 Antarctic ozone hole was comparable in size to 

recent previous ozone holes, while still much larger than those observed before 1990. Due to large interannual 

variability, it is unclear yet whether the ozone hole has begun a slow recovery process. Global integrals of 

upper-ocean heat content for the last several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior 

times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the oceans in the planet’s energy budget. Aside from the 

El Niño development in the tropical Pacific and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean, the Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation (PDO) transitioned to a positive phase during the fall/winter 2009. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to 

SST anomalies in some regions (e.g., in the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Oceans) while dampening existing 

SST anomalies in other regions (e.g., the tropical and extratropical Pacific). The downward trend in global 

chlorophyll observed since 1999 continued through 2009, with current chlorophyll stocks in the central 

stratified oceans now approaching record lows since 1997. Extreme warmth was experienced across large areas 

of South America, southern Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Australia had its second warmest year on record. 

India experienced its warmest year on record; Alaska had its second warmest July on record, behind 2004; and 

New Zealand had its warmest August since records began 155 years ago. Severe cold snaps were reported in the 

UK, China, and the Russian Federation. Drought affected large parts of southern North America, the Caribbean, 

South America, and Asia. China suffered its worst drought in five decades. India had a record dry June 

associated with the reduced monsoon. Heavy rainfall and floods impacted Canada, the United States, the 

Amazonia and southern South America, many countries along the east and west coasts of Africa, and the UK. 

The U.S. experienced its wettest October in 115 years and Turkey received its heaviest rainfall over a 48-hr 

period in 80 years. Sea level variations during 2009 were strongly affected by the transition from La Niña to El 

Niño conditions, especially in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Globally, variations about the long-term trend also 

appear to have been influenced by ENSO, with a slight reduction in global mean sea level during the 2007/08 La 

Niña event and a return to the long-term trend, and perhaps slightly higher values, during the latter part of 2009 

and the current El Niño event. Unusually low Florida Current transports were observed in May and June and 

were linked to high sea level and coastal flooding along the east coast of the United States in the summer. Sea 

level significantly decreased along the Siberian coast through a combination of wind, ocean circulation, and 

steric effects. Cloud and moisture increased in the tropical Pacific. The surface of the western equatorial Pacific 

freshened considerably from 2008 to 2009, at least partially owing to anomalous eastward advection of fresh 

surface water along the equator during this latest El Niño. Outside the more variable tropics, the surface salinity 

anomalies associated with evaporation and precipitation areas persisted, consistent with an enhanced 

hydrological cycle. Global tropical cyclone (TC) activity was the lowest since 2005, with six of the seven main 

hurricane basins (the exception is the Eastern North Pacific) experiencing near-normal or somewhat belownormal 

TC activity. Despite the relatively mild year for overall hurricane activity, several storms were 

particularly noteworthy: Typhoon Morakot was the deadliest typhoon on record to hit Taiwan; Cyclone Hamish 

was the most intense cyclone off Queensland since 1918; and the state of Hawaii experienced its first TC since 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

1992. The summer minimum ice extent in the Arctic was the third-lowest recorded since 1979. The 2008/09 

boreal snow cover season marked a continuation of relatively shorter snow seasons, due primarily to an early 

disappearance of snow cover in spring. Preliminary data indicate a high probability that 2009 will be the 19th 

consecutive year that glaciers have lost mass. Below normal precipitation led the 34 widest marine terminating 

glaciers in Greenland to lose 101 km² ice area in 2009, within an annual loss rate of 106 km² over the past 

decade. Observations show a general increase in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades in 

Alaska, northwest Canada, Siberia, and Northern Europe. Changes in the timing of tundra green-up and 

senescence are also occurring, with earlier green-up in the High Arctic and a shift to a longer green season in 

fall in the Low Arctic. The Antarctic Peninsula continues to warm at a rate five times larger than the global 

mean warming. Associated with the regional warming, there was significant ice loss along the Antarctic 

Peninsula in the last decade. Antarctic sea ice extent was near normal to modestly above normal for the 

majority of 2009, with marked regional contrasts within the record. The 2008/09 Antarctic-wide austral summer 

snowmelt was the lowest in the 30-year history. This 20th annual State of the Climate report highlights the 

climate conditions that characterized 2009, including notable extreme events. In total, 37 Essential Climate 

Variables are reported to more completely characterize the State of the Climate in 2009. 


Volume 91 

Issue 7 

Pages S1-S22 


Series Title State of the Climate 


DOI 10.1175/BAMS-91-7-StateoftheClimate 

ISSN 0003-0007 

URL http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php 

Extra BAMS 2009 Annual State of the Climate publication 



Citing the complete report: Arndt, D. S., M. O. Baringer, and M. R. Johnson, Eds., 2010: State of the Climate in 2009. Bull. 

Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (7), S1-S224. 

Citing a chapter (example): Diamond, H.J.., Ed., 2010: The tropics [in "State of the Climate in 2009"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. 

Soc., 91 (7), S79-106. 

Citing a section (example): Halpert, M., G. D. Bell, and M. L'Heureux, 2010: ENSO and the Tropical Pacific [in .State of the 

Climate in 2009.]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (7), S79-S82. 

State of the climate in 2010 


Editor Jessica Blunden 

Editor Derek S. Arndt 

Editor Molly O. Baringer 

Abstract Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 

2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July 

contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low 

Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main 

hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the 

Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and 

again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern 

Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. 

The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 

average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic 

continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean 

heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian 

and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have 

reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the 

ocean in the Earth’s energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on 

average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two 

to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred 

during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to 

be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. 

Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) 

regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions 

continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase 

in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic 

during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic— reached in September —was the third lowest on 

record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from 

mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record 

positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland 

glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record 

amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting 

was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also 

caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. 

Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate 

more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. 

With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years 

ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine 

glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting 

substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 

and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from 

La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be 

similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with 

other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during 

austral winter between mid-July and early September. 


Volume 92 

Issue 6 

Pages S1–S236 


Series Title State of the Climate 


DOI 10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.S1 

ISSN 0003-0007 

URL http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2010.php 

Extra BAMS 2010 Annual State of the Climate publication 



Citing the complete report: Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, Eds., 2011: State of the Climate in 2010. Bull. Amer. 

Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S1-S266. 

Citing a chapter (example): Fogt, R. L., , Ed., 2011: Antarctica [in "State of the Climate in 2010"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 

92 (6), S161-171. 

Citing a section (example): Wovrosh, A. J., S. Barreira, and R. L. Fogt, 2011: [Antarctica] Circulation [in .State of the Climate 

in 2010.]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S161-S163. 

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Strong Response of an Invasive Plant Species (Centaurea solstitialis L.) to Global Environmental 

Changes 


Author Jeffrey Dukes 

Author Nona Chiariello 

Author Scott Loarie 

Author Christopher Field 

Abstract Global environmental changes are altering interactions among plant species, sometimes favoring invasive 

species. Here, we examine how a suite of five environmental factors, singly and in combination, can affect the 

success of a highly invasive plant. We introduced Centaurea solstitialis L. (yellow starthistle), which is 

considered by many to be California's most troublesome wildland weed, to grassland plots in the San Francisco 

Bay Area. These plots experienced ambient or elevated levels of warming, atmospheric CO₂, precipitation, and 

nitrate deposition, and an accidental fire in the previous year created an additional treatment. Centaurea grew 

more than six times larger in response to elevated CO₂, and, outside of the burned area, grew more than three 

times larger in response to nitrate deposition. In contrast, resident plants in the community responded less 

strongly (or did not respond) to these treatments. Interactive effects among treatments were rarely significant. 

Results from a parallel mesocosm experiment, while less dramatic, supported the pattern of results observed in 

the field. Taken together, our results suggest that ongoing environmental changes may dramatically increase 

Centaurea's prevalence in western North America. 


Volume Preprints 

Pages 110527080348010 

Date May 2011 - In press 


DOI 10.1890/11-0111.1 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle); climate change; elevated CO₂; grasslands; invasive species; 

nitrogen deposition; rangelands; weed. 



Summer aridity in the United States: Response to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface 

temperature 



Author Moetasim Ashfaq 

Author Bryan Shuman 

Author John W. Williams 


Abstract We examine the response of summer precipitation to mid-Holocene insolation forcing and insolation-induced 

changes in sea surface temperature. Using a high-resolution nested climate modeling system, we find that 

mid-Holocene insolation forcing results in drier-than-present conditions over the central continental United 

States (U.S.) and northern Rocky Mountains, as well as wetter-than-present conditions over the Atlantic 

seaboard and northwestern Great Plains. We find that changes in summer precipitation are dominated by 

changes in large-scale processes, with similar patterns of change in the global and nested models. We also find 

that insolation-induced changes in sea surface temperature do not change the basic pattern of precipitation 

response, primarily because the dynamical response is very similar with and without sea surface temperature 

changes. Notably, drier-than-present conditions over the central U.S. are associated with enhanced anticyclonic 

circulation aloft over the mid-continent and reduced low-level moisture content over the Gulf of Mexico and 

south-central U.S., while wetter-than-present conditions over the Atlantic seaboard are associated with 

enhanced low-level cyclonic circulation and elevated low-level moisture content. The simulated patterns of 

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precipitation and soil moisture agree with proxy moisture records from most regions, indicating both that 

insolation was the strongest determinant of mid-Holocene summer aridity in the continental U.S. and that 

high-resolution nested climate modeling systems are able to capture the basic response of midlatitude 

warm-season aridity to changes in external climate forcing. 


Volume 33 

Issue 22 

Pages L22712 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2006GL028012 

ISSN 0094–8276 

Short Title Summer aridity in the United States 


Extra Keywords: mid-Holocene; regional climate model; data-model comparison. 



Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and 

predictability 




Author Hans von Weissenfluh 




Abstract We investigate the large-scale forcing and teleconnections between atmospheric circulation (sea level pressure, 

SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), precipitation and heat wave events over western Europe using a new 

dataset of 54 daily maximum temperature time series. Forty four of these time series have been homogenised at 

the daily timescale to ensure that the presence of inhomogeneities has been minimised. The daily data have been 

used to create a seasonal index of the number of heat waves. Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), heat 

waves over western Europe are shown to be related to anomalous high pressure over Scandinavia and central 

western Europe. Other forcing factors such as Atlantic SSTs and European precipitation, the later as a proxy for 

soil moisture, a known factor in strengthening land–atmosphere feedback processes, are also important. The 

strength of the relationship between summer SLP anomalies and heat waves is improved (from 35%) to account 

for around 46% of its variability when summer Atlantic and Mediterranean SSTs and summer European 

precipitation anomalies are included as predictors. This indicates that these predictors are not completely 

collinear rather that they each have some contribution to accounting for summer heat wave variability. 

However, the simplicity and scale of the statistical analysis masks this complex interaction between variables. 

There is some useful predictive skill of summer heat waves using multiple lagged predictors. A CCA using 

preceding winter North Atlantic SSTs and preceding January to May Mediterranean total precipitation results in 

significant hindcast (1972–2003) Spearman rank correlation skill scores up to 0.55 with an average skill score 

over the domain equal to 0.28 ± 0.28. In agreement with previous studies focused on mean summer 

temperature, there appears to be some predictability of heat wave events on the decadal scale from the Atlantic 

Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), although the long-term global mean temperature is also well related to western 

European heat waves. Combining these results with the observed positive trends in summer continental 

European SLP, North Atlantic SSTs and indications of a decline in European summer precipitation then possibly 

these long-term changes are also related to increased heat wave occurrence and it is important that the physical 

processes controlling these changes be more fully understood. 


Volume 29 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 251-275 

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DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1 

ISSN 0930-7575 




Synchronicity of Antarctic temperatures and local solar insolation on orbital timescales 


Author Thomas Laepple 

Author Martin Werner 

Author Gerrit Lohmann 

Abstract The Milankovitch theory states that global climate variability on orbital timescales from tens to hundreds of 

thousands of years is dominated by the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The supporting evidence 

includes reconstructed air temperatures in Antarctica that are nearly in phase with boreal summer insolation and 

out of phase with local summer insolation. Antarctic climate is therefore thought to be driven by northern 

summer insolation. A clear mechanism that links the two hemispheres on orbital timescales is, however, missing. 

We propose that key Antarctic temperature records derived from ice cores are biased towards austral winter 

because of a seasonal cycle in snow accumulation. Using present-day estimates of this bias in the ‘recorder’ 

system, here we show that the local insolation can explain the orbital component of the temperature record 

without having to invoke a link to the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, the Antarctic ice-core-derived 

temperature record, one of the best-dated records of the late Pleistocene temperature evolution, cannot be used 

to support or contradict the Milankovitch hypothesis that global climate changes are driven by Northern 

Hemisphere summer insolation variations. 


Volume 471 

Issue 7336 

Pages 91-94 



DOI 10.1038/nature09825 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Synoptic climatology of extreme fire-weather conditions across the southwest United States 


Author Michael A. Crimmins 

Abstract Extreme fire-weather conditions are usually thought of as discrete events rather than part of a continuum of 

meteorological and climatological variability. This study uses a synoptic climatological approach (weather 

typing) to examine the seasonal climatology of extreme fire-weather conditions across the southwest United 

States (Arizona and New Mexico) during the period of 1988–2003. Three key circulation patterns representing 

broad southwesterly flow and large geopotential height gradients are associated with over 80% of the extreme 

fire-weather days identified in this study. Seasonal changes in relative humidity levels, strength of height 

gradient, and geopotential heights all modulate the relationship between these key circulation patterns and 

extreme fire-weather days. Examination of daily incident summaries for three recent wildfires (May 2000, June 

2002 and June 2003) shows that wildfire activity can be strongly regulated by these critical fire-weather 

circulation patterns. 


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Volume 26 

Issue 8 

Pages 1001–1016 



DOI 10.1002/joc.1300 

ISSN 1097-0088 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1300/abstract 

Extra Keywords: fire weather; synoptic weather types; self-organizing maps; wildfires; southwest United States. 



Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal 


Author Mário G. Pereira 

Author Ricardo M. Trigo 

Author Carlos C. da Camara 

Author José M. C. Pereira 

Author Solange M. Leite 

Abstract Time series of the total annual burnt area in Portugal reveal two main features, a large inter-annual variability 

and a positive trend since the early 80 s. Here we show that inter-annual variability is partly due to the amount 

of precipitation in the fire season and in the preceding late spring season and partly to the occurrence of 

atmospheric circulation patterns that induce extremely hot and dry spells over western Iberia. On the other 

hand, the observed positive trend of burnt area is mainly related to changes in farming and land use. 

Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role, both in the ignition and during the fire spread. The 

description of spatial and temporal variability of wildfire characteristics is performed using the comprehensive 

fire data set (between 1980 and 2000) from the Portuguese forest service. We show that the vast majority of the 

burnt area in Portugal (80%) is due to fire events that occurred on in a very small number (10%) of summer 

days. Large-scale climatic and dynamical meteorological fields were retrieved from the NCAR/NCEP 

Reanalyses data sets for the 1961–2000 period and composites were then obtained for the 10% of summer days 

associated with the highest values of burnt area. Anomaly fields of climate variables (e.g. 850 hPa temperature 

and relative humidity) are interpreted based on physical mechanisms associated with dynamical variables such 

as the surface wind field or the 500 hPa geopotential height. Overall, one may state that synoptic patterns of 

most analysed meteorological fields present statistically significant anomalies over western Iberia. In particular, 

composites of geopotential height for mid (500 hPa) and lower (850 hPa) troposphere show that large forest 

fires in Portugal occur when the atmospheric circulation forms a prominent ridge over the Iberian peninsula with 

the flow being dominated by a strong meridional component. Near the surface, wind and sea level pressure 

anomalies show that these days are associated with south-easterly conditions, with a strong anomalous 

advection from northern Africa that is further heated when crossing the central Iberian plateau. Large 

asymmetries between minimum and maximum temperatures composites are analysed taking into account the 

lack of cloud cover and corresponding precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model based on the monthly 

precipitation and the occurrence of previously identified wildfire prone atmospheric patterns. The developed 

model gives a correlation coefficient of 0.8 between the observed and modeled extent of burnt area during the 

summer. 

Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 

Volume 129 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 11-25 


Journal Abbr Agr. Forest Meteorol. 

DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.12.007 

ISSN 0168-1923 


Extra Keywords: wildland fire; weather; rainfall; temperature; wind structure; Portugal. 

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Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather 



Author Glovinsky Monte 

Author Virgil F. Henricks 

Author Frank C. Hood 

Author Melvin K. Hull 

Author Henry L. Jacobson 

Author Robert Kirkpatrick 

Author Daniel W. Krueger 

Author Lester P. Mallory 

Author Albert G. 0ertel 

Author Robert H. Reese 

Author Leo A. Sergius 

Author Charles E. Syverson 

Abstract Mass fires are likely to spread rapidly and burn intensely when strong winds are combined with low humidities 

and high temperatures, particularly after a rainless period. To identify synoptic weather types that create such 

periods of critical fire weather, the 48 contiguous states were divided into 14 regions and fire danger indexes 

were computed from weather data at 89 stations for the years 1951-60. Surface weather types and upper-air 

patterns associated with high fire danger are described for each region. 

Report Number AD 449630 

Report Type Scientific And Technical Information: Meteorology and Civil Defense 

Place Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Secretary of the Army 

Institution Pacific Southwest Forest And Range Experiment Station Berkeley CA, Forest Service, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture 

Date 1964 

Pages 492 p. 

URL http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai? 

verb=getRecord&… 

Extra Keywords: fires; forest fires; meteorology; atmospheric motion; meteorological charts; weather forecasting; 

wind. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Schroeder, M. J., M. Glovinski, and V. F. Hendricks. 1964. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather. U.S. 

Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, Institute for Applied Technology, AD 449-630, Washington, D.C., USA. 

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather. Schroeder M, Glovinsky M, Hendricks V, Hood F, Hull M, Jacobson H, 

Kirkpatrick R, Krueger D, Mallory L, Oertel A, Reese R, Sergius L, Syverson C. 1964. Pacific Southwest Forest and Range 

Experiment Station, Berkeley CA. 492 pp. 

Synthesis and assessment product 3.3: Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate. Regions of 

focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands 


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Series Editor Thomas R. Karl 

Author US CCSP 

Author Subcommittee on Global Change Research 

Series Editor Gerald A. Meehl 

Series Editor Christopher D. Miller 

Series Editor Susan J. Hassol 

Series Editor Anne M. Waple 

Series Editor William L. Murray 

Abstract Synopsis: Changes in extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts and are among the most 

serious challenges to society in coping with a changing climate. Many extremes and their associated impacts are 

now changing. For example, in recent decades most of North America has been experiencing more unusually 

hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights, and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have 

become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions, though there are no 

clear trends for North America as a whole. The power and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes have increased 

substantially in recent decades, though North American mainland land-falling hurricanes do not appear to have 

increased over the past century. Outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms 

are becoming even stronger. It is well established through formal attribution studies that the global warming of 

the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Such studies have only 

recently been used to determine the causes of some changes in extremes at the scale of a continent. Certain 

aspects of observed increases in temperature extremes have been linked to human influences. The increase in 

heavy precipitation events is associated with an increase in water vapor, and the latter has been attributed to 

human-induced warming. No formal attribution studies for changes in drought severity in North America have 

been attempted. There is evidence suggesting a human contribution to recent changes in hurricane activity as 

well as in storms outside the tropics, though a confident assessment will require further study. In the future, with 

continued global warming, heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to further increase in frequency and 

intensity. Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. 

Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest cold season 

storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights. Current and 

future impacts resulting from these changes depend not only on the changes in extremes, but also on responses 

by human and natural systems. 

Report Number SAP 3.3 

Report Type Synthesis and Assessment Product 

Series Title Final Report of Synthesis and Assessment Product 

Place US Climate Change Science Program 


Pages 162 p. 

URL http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/default.htm 

Extra Lead agency: NOAA 



Synthesis and assessment product 4.2: Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems 




Author Daniel B. Fagre 

Author Colleen W. Charles 


Author Charles Birkeland 


Author Peter M. Groffman 

Author Glenn R. Guntenspergen 



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Author Patrick J. Mulholland 

Author Debra P.C. Peters 

Author Daniel D. Roby 

Author George Sugihara 

Abstract Synopsis: As defined in this Synthesis and Assessment Report, ‘an ecological threshold is the point at which 

there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon, or where small changes in one or 

more external conditions produce large and persistent responses in an ecosystem’. Ecological thresholds occur 

when external factors, positive feedbacks, or nonlinear instabilities in a system cause changes to propagate in a 

domino-like fashion that is potentially irreversible. This report reviews threshold changes in North American 

ecosystems that are potentially induced by climatic change and addresses the significant challenges these 

threshold crossings impose on resource and land managers. Sudden changes to ecosystems and the goods and 

services they provide are not well understood, but they are extremely important if natural resource managers are 

to succeed in developing adaptation strategies in a changing world. The report provides an overview of what is 

known about ecological thresholds and where they are likely to occur. It also identifies those areas where 

research is most needed to improve knowledge and understand the uncertainties regarding them. The report 

suggests a suite of potential actions that land and resource managers could use to improve the likelihood of 

success for the resources they manage, even under conditions of incomplete understanding of what drives 

thresholds of change and when changes will occur. Key examples of climate-induced threshold changes are 

presented. This synthesis effort identified a suite of potential actions that, taken together or separately, can 

begin to improve the understanding of thresholds and increase the likelihood of success in developing 

management and adaptation strategies in a changing climate, before, during, and after thresholds are crossed. In 

general, it is essential to increase the resilience of ecosystems and thus to slow or prevent the crossing of 

thresholds; to identify early warning signals of impending threshold changes; and to employ adaptive 

management strategies to deal with new conditions, new successional trajectories and new combinations of 

species. 






Pages 156 p. 

URL http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-2/final-report/default.htm 

Extra Lead agency: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 



Synthesis and assessment product 4.3: The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, 

water resources, and biodiversity in the United States 




Author Peter Backlund 

Author Anthony Janetos 

Author David Schimel 

Series Editor Margaret Walsh 

Abstract This report provides an assessment of the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture, land resources, water 

resources, and biodiversity. It is one of a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP) that are being 

produced under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). This SAP builds on an 

extensive scientific literature and series of recent assessments of the historical and potential impacts of climate 

change and climate variability on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and their constituent biota and 

processes. It discusses the nation’s ability to identify, observe, and monitor the stresses that influence 

agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity, and evaluates the relative importance of these 

stresses and how they are likely to change in the future. It identifies changes in resource conditions that are now 

being observed, and examines whether these changes can be attributed in whole or part to climate change. The 

general time horizon for this report is from the recent past through the period 2030-2050, although longer-term 

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results out to 2100 are also considered. There is robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change 

is occurring. Records of temperature and precipitation in the United States show trends consistent with the 

current state of global-scale understanding and observations of change. Observations also show that climate 

change is currently impacting the nation’s ecosystems and services in significant ways, and those alterations are 

very likely to accelerate in the future, in some cases dramatically. Current observational capabilities are 

considered inadequate to fully understand and address the future scope and rate of change in all ecological 

sectors. Additionally, the complex interactions between change agents such as climate, land use alteration, and 

species invasion create dynamics that confound simple causal relationships and will severely complicate the 

development and assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Even under the most optimistic CO₂ 

emission scenarios, important changes in sea level, regional and super-regional temperatures, and precipitation 

patterns will have profound effects. Management of water resources will become more challenging. Increased 

incidence of disturbances such as forest fires, insect outbreaks, severe storms, and drought will command public 

attention and place increasing demands on management resources. Ecosystems are likely to be pushed 

increasingly into alternate states with the possible breakdown of traditional species relationships, such as 

pollinator/plant and predator/prey interactions, adding additional stresses and potential for system failures. Some 

agricultural and forest systems may experience near-term productivity increases, but over the long term, many 

such systems are likely to experience overall decreases in productivity that could result in economic losses, 

diminished ecosystem services, and the need for new, and in many cases significant, changes to management 

regimes. 





Date May 2008 

Pages 240 p. 

URL http://www.sap43.ucar.edu/documents/SAP_4.3_6.18.pdf 

Loc. in Archive http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/final-report/default.htm 

Extra Lead agency: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 



Synthesis of knowledge on the effects of fire and fire surrogates on wildlife in U.S. dry forests 


Author Patricia L. Kennedy 

Author Joseph B. Fontaine 

Abstract Summary: Dry forests throughout the United States are fire-dependent ecosystems, and much attention has been 

given to restoring their ecological function. As such, land managers often are tasked with reintroducing fire via 

prescribed fire, wildland fire use, and fire-surrogate treatments such as thinning and mastication. During 

planning, managers frequently are expected to anticipate effects of management actions on wildlife species. This 

document represents a synthesis of existing knowledge on wildlife responses to fire and fire-surrogate 

treatments, presented in a useful, management-relevant format. Based on scoping meetings and dialogue with 

public lands managers from throughout the United States, we provide detailed, species-level, summary tables for 

project biologists and fire managers trying to anticipate the effects of fire and fire-surrogate treatments on local 

wildlife species. We performed an extensive survey of the published, peer-reviewed scientific literature on 

wildlife response to fire and fire-surrogate treatments. In total, we reviewed more than 150 articles, included 90 

articles in our database, resulting in 4,937 records of 313 vertebrate species. We grouped the dry forests of the 

continental United States into six regions: pine east, pine west, interior mixed-conifer, Pacific mixed-conifer, 

eastern hardwood, and Great Lakes. Further, studies were categorized on the basis of the following: [1] Fire 

severity (in which low = 0-60% canopy mortality and high = more than 60% canopy mortality), and [2] Time 

since fire (expressed in ranges of 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10 years or more) Detailed tables summarizing 

published studies and individual species responses from each of the regions are in the appendixes. These are 

intended as "look up" tables for land managers engaged in planning. We found numerous peer-reviewed studies 

that provided examples of fire-adapted and fire-dependent wildlife species throughout dry forest types 

(Bachman's sparrow, black-backed woodpecker, gopher tortoise, etc.). These studies clearly showed that many 

species consistently respond positively to fire, supporting the assumption that these species have evolved with 

and are dependent on fire (of varying severities and extents) as a regular ecological process. However, not all 

species respond positively, and some species have no detectable response to the conditions created by fire or 

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fire surrogates. Published literature was most available for birds and small mammals and least abundant for 

herpetofauna and large mammals (ungulates, carnivores). Moreover, often there were sampling issues associated 

with the wildlife literature, reducing the strength of inference in many cases. Regional coverage of studies was 

best for short-term effects of surface fires in eastern pine systems and high-severity fires in the interior mixedconifer 

forests of the western United States. Major gaps in knowledge exist in the current scientific literature. 

Much ground has been gained by the Fire and Fire Surrogate system of experiments with respect to stand-level 

knowledge of surface fire and fire surrogates. However, tremendous gaps persist with respect to mixed-severity 

fire, longer term response to mixed- and high severity fire, and the effects of repeated fire (all severities) on 

wildlife. 

Report Number SR-1096 

Report Type Special Report 


Institution Oregon State University, Agricultural Experiment Station 


Pages 133 p. 

URL http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/jspui/bitstream/1957/12625/1/SR1096.pdf 

Archive http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/handle/1957/12625 

Extra Keywords: forest animals -- effect of fires & effect of forest management; post-fire forest management; forests 

and forestry -- fire management; fire ecology; forest fires; arid regions forestry. 



Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter 


Author John M. Wallace 

Author David S. Gutzler 

Abstract Contemporaneous correlations between geopotential heights on a given pressure surface at widely separated 

points on earth, referred to as teleconnections in this paper, are studied in an attempt to identify and document 

recurrent spatial patterns which might be indicative of standing oscillations in the planetary waves during the 

Northern Hemisphere winter, with time scales on the order of a month or longer. A review of existing literature 

on the subject reveals the existence of at least four such patterns: the North Atlantic and North Pacific 

Oscillations identified by Walker and Bliss (1932), a zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in 

polar and temperature latitudes, first noted by Lorenz (1951), and what we will refer to as the Pacific/North 

American pattern, which has been known to operational long-range forecasters in this country since the 1950's. 

A data set consisting of NMC monthly mean sea level pressure and 500 mb height analyses for a 15-year period 

is used as a basis for calculating the temporal correlation coefficients between all possible pairs of grid points. 

An objective method is used to identify and describe the strongest teleconnection patterns in this correlation 

matrix. The five leading patterns are compared with, and found to bear some similarity to, the leading 

eigenvectors of the correlation matrix. Certain of the above calculations are repeated on an independent data set 

in order to test the reproducibility of the patterns. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific/North 

American patterns are strongly evident in both data acts. The former is associated with fluctuations in the 

strength of the climatological mean jet stream over the western Atlantic. The Pacific/North American pattern 

includes a north–south seesaw in the central Pacific somewhat reminiscent of the North Pacific Oscillation 

mentioned by Walker and Bliss (1932) and Bjerknes (1969), together with centers of action over western 

Canada and the southeastern United States. Several other teleconnection patterns are revealed by the analysis of 

the primary data set, but are not found to be as reproducible in the independent data set. The sea level pressure 

statistics are dominated by negative correlations between the polar region and temperature latitudes, whereas 

the 500 mb statistics are dominated by patterns of a more regional scale, which display a nearly equivalent 

barotropic structure with amplitudes increasing with height. Most of the regional patterns have only one or two 

well-defined centers of action at the earth's surface, but at mid-tropospheric levels they are more wavelike in 

appearance and characterized by multiple centers of action; at these levels their structure resembles that of 

forced stationary wakes on a sphere. 


Volume 109 

Issue 4 

Pages 784–812 

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DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)1092.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 


/1520-0493%281981%29109%3C0784%3ATITGHF%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States 

(1986–96) 



Author Steven W. Hostetler 

Author Sarah L. Shafer 

Author Justin O. Holman 

Author Allen M. Solomon 

Abstract The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the 

period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement 

maps and time series plots with Hovmöller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in 

order to reveal the underlying space–time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and humanstarted 

fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution 

of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the 

summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related 

controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions 

surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of humanstarted 

fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, 

weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 8-17 



DOI 10.1071/WF07022 

ISSN 1049-8001 


Extra Keywords: annual cycle of fires; fire incidence; Hovmöller diagram; human-caused fires; lightning-caused fires; 

time–space plots; time–space variation; US National Fire Occurrence Database; wildfire outbreaks. 



Terrestrial biosphere dynamics in the climate system: Past and future (Chapter 5) 




Author Brian Huntley 

Contributor Patrick J. Bartlein 

Contributor Yvonne C. Collingham 

Contributor Eric C. Grimm 

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Contributor Thompson Webb III 

Contributor John W. Williams 

Contributor Stephen G. Willis 


Book Title Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future 

Series The IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) Series 


Place Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg 


Date 2003 

Pages 81-111 

ISBN 3-540-42402-4 

Short Title Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System 

URL http://www.ak-geomorphologie.de/data/pgcf/chapter5.pdf 

Extra • Ak-Geomorphologie.de; • http://pages-142.unibe.ch/products/books/paleo_list.html 



Terrestrial biosphere: The burning issue 




Volume 1 

Issue 10 

Pages 643-644 

Date 9/2008 

Journal Abbr Nature Geosci 

DOI 10.1038/ngeo321 

ISSN 1752-0894 





Terrestrial biosphere: The burning issue 



Abstract Wildfires have been a natural part of the Earth system for millions of years. A new charcoal database for the 

past two millennia shows that human activity increased biomass burning after AD 1750 and suppressed it after 

AD 1870. 


Volume 1 

Issue 10 

Pages 643-644 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo321 

ISSN 1752-0894 

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Short Title Terrestrial biosphere 




Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth 


Author David M. Olson 

Author Eric Dinerstein 

Author Eric D. Wikramanayake 

Author Neil D. Burgess 

Author George V. N. Powell 

Author Emma C. Underwood 

Author Jennifer A. D'amico 

Author Illanga Itoua 

Author Holly E. Strand 

Author John C. Morrison 

Author Colby J. Loucks 

Author Thomas F. Allnutt 

Author Taylor H. Ricketts 

Author Yumiko Kura 

Author John F. Lamoreux 

Author Wesley W. Wettengel 

Author Prashant Hedao 

Author Kenneth R. Kassem 



Volume 51 

Issue 11 

Pages 933-938 



DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0006-3568 

Short Title Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051%5B0933:TEOTWA%5D2.0.CO%3B2 



Testing disturbance theory with long-term data: Alternative life-history solutions to the distribution of 

events 



Abstract A model of disturbance effects on fire-dependent tree populations is developed, parameterized, and tested using 

long-term data from northwestern Minnesota to determine the extent to which disturbance controls species 

composition. The model assumes fires are necessary for recruitment, and they may cause mortality, depending 

on species. Reproductive success is estimated as an integral equation (analogous to Lotka's equation for R₀) 

taking into account fecundity schedules, mortality schedules, and age-specific disturbance effects. Life histories 

are parameterized for the three dominant fire-dependent tree taxa in the region, Pinus resinosa, Betula 

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papyrifera, and Populus. Long-term disturbance regimes are summarized as density functions of intervals 

between fires parameterized from fire scars on trees and in sediment charcoal records. Changes in the density of 

fire intervals in the past are the basis for predictions that different taxa would dominate, depending on their life 

histories. Fossil pollen data indicate changing abundances of tree taxa and are used to test predictions of the 

model of reproductive success. Comparisons of model predictions with changing abundances of pollen indicate 

that the density of fire regimes is one of the important controls on composition. Pinus resinosa is limited by the 

high frequency of fire, but longevity is an advantage in the region for this species; Betula is limited by frequent 

fire, and longevity is of little advantage; and Populus is least sensitive to fire regime. Results show that knowing 

simply the frequency of fire can lead to naive interpretations of fire effects (or lack thereof). The higher 

moments of disturbance densities can be critical for understanding responses of species that require extended 

intervals to achieve resistance to fire. These extended intervals may be rare, in which case they are better 

described by the higher moments of the density than they are by the mean interval. 

Publication The American Naturalist 

Volume 148 

Issue 6 

Pages 976-996 


Journal Abbr Am. Nat. 

ISSN 0003-0147 

Short Title Testing Disturbance Theory with Long-Term Data 




Text on the weather 


Author Brian Lennon 


Publication The Iowa Review 

Volume 30 

Issue 2 

Pages 101–113 

Date Fall, 2000 

Journal Abbr Iowa Rev. 

ISSN 0021-065X 




The 1978 national fire-danger rating system: technical documentation 


Author Larry S. Bradshaw 

Author John E. Deeming 

Author Robert E. Burgan 

Author Jack D. Cohen 

Abstract Description: The National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS), implemented in 1972, has been revised and 

reissued as the 1978 NFDRS. This report describes the full developmental history of the NFDRS, including 

purpose, technical foundation, and structure. Includes an extensive bibliography and appendixes. 



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Notes: 

Citation: 


Institution US Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station 

Date 1984 

Pages 44 p. 

Short Title The 1978 national fire-danger rating system 



Extra Keywords: fire; fire danger rating; forest fire hazard; forest fire behavior; forest fire risk; technical 

documentation. 



Bradshaw, Larry S.; Deeming, John E.; Burgan, Robert E.; Cohen, Jack D., compilers 1984. The 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating 

System: technical documentation. General Technical Report INT-169. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 44 p. 

The 2010 Amazon drought 


Author Simon L. Lewis 

Author Paulo M. Brando 

Author Oliver L. Phillips 

Author Geertje M. F. van der Heijden 


Abstract In 2010, dry-season rainfall was low across Amazonia, with apparent similarities to the major 2005 drought. We 

analyzed a decade of satellite-derived rainfall data to compare both events. Standardized anomalies of 

dry-season rainfall showed that 57% of Amazonia had low rainfall in 2010 as compared with 37% in 2005 (≤–1 

standard deviation from long-term mean). By using relationships between drying and forest biomass responses 

measured for 2005, we predict the impact of the 2010 drought as 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon [95% confidence 

intervals (CIs) are 1.2 and 3.4], largely longer-term committed emissions from drought-induced tree deaths, 

compared with 1.6 ×1015 grams of carbon (CIs 0.8 and 2.6) for the 2005 event. 


Volume 331 

Issue 6017 

Pages 554 



DOI 10.1126/science.1200807 





The 8,000-year-old climate puzzle 


Author Jeff Tollefson 


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Volume Published online: Nature News 



DOI 10.1038/news.2011.184 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/news.2011.184 



The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997 


Author Susan E. Page 

Author Florian Siegert 

Author John O. Rieley 

Author Hans-Dieter V. Boehm 

Author Adi Jaya 

Author Suwido Limin 

Abstract Tropical peatlands are one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, and hence their 

stability has important implications for climate change. In their natural state, lowland tropical peatlands support 

a luxuriant growth of peat swamp forest overlying peat deposits up to 20 metres thick. Persistent environmental 

change—in particular, drainage and forest clearing—threatens their stability, and makes them susceptible to fire. 

This was demonstrated by the occurrence of widespread fires throughout the forested peatlands of Indonesia 

during the 1997 El Niño event. Here, using satellite images of a 2.5 million hectare study area in Central 

Kalimantan, Borneo, from before and after the 1997 fires, we calculate that 32% (0.79 Mha) of the area had 

burned, of which peatland accounted for 91.5% (0.73 Mha). Using ground measurements of the burn depth of 

peat, we estimate that 0.19–0.23 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon were released to the atmosphere through peat 

combustion, with a further 0.05 Gt released from burning of the overlying vegetation. Extrapolating these 

estimates to Indonesia as a whole, we estimate that between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon were released to the 

atmosphere in 1997 as a result of burning peat and vegetation in Indonesia. This is equivalent to 13–40% of the 

mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and contributed greatly to the largest annual increase in 

atmospheric CO₂ concentration detected since records began in 1957 (ref. 1). 


Volume 420 

Issue 6911 

Pages 61-65 



DOI 10.1038/nature01131 

ISSN 1476-4687 




The Big Burn: Teddy Roosevelt and the fire that saved America 

Type Book 

Author Timothy Egan 

Abstract Description: In THE WORST HARD TIME, Timothy Egan put the environmental disaster of the Dust Bowl at 

the center of a rich history, told through characters he brought to indelible life. Now he performs the same 

alchemy with the Big Burn, the largest-ever forest fire in America and the tragedy that cemented Teddy 

Roosevelt's legacy in the land. On the afternoon of August 20, 1910, a battering ram of wind moved through the 

drought-stricken national forests of Washington, Idaho, Montana, whipping the hundreds of small blazes burning 

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across the forest floor into a roaring inferno that jumped from treetop to ridge as it raged, destroying towns and 

timber in an eyeblink. Forest rangers had assembled nearly ten thousand men -- college boys, day-workers, 

immigrants from mining camps -- to fight the fires. But no living person had seen anything like those flames, and 

neither the rangers nor anyone else knew how to subdue them. Egan narrates the struggles of the overmatched 

rangers against the implacable fire with unstoppable dramatic force, through the eyes of the people who lived it. 

Equally dramatic, though, is the larger story he tells of outsized president Teddy Roosevelt and his chief forester 

Gifford Pinchot. Pioneering the notion of conservation, Roosevelt and Pinchot did nothing less than create the 

idea of public land as our national treasure, owned by every citizen. The robber barons fought him and the 

rangers charged with protecting the reserves, but even as TR's national forests were smoldering they were saved: 

The heroism shown by those same rangers turned public opinion permanently in favor of the forests, though it 

changed the mission of the forest service with consequences felt in the fires of today. THE BIG BURN tells an 

epic story, paints a moving portrait of the people who lived it, and offers a critical cautionary tale for our time. 



Publisher Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 



ISBN 0618968415, 978-0618968411 

Short Title The Big Burn 

URL http://search.barnesandnoble.com/The-Big-Burn/Timothy-Egan/e/9780618968411 

Loc. in Archive http://www.amazon.com/Big-Burn-Teddy-Roosevelt-America/dp/0618968415 

Library Catalog Amazon.com 



The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system 


Author Eugenie S. Euskirchen 




Abstract In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, 

and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal 

forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and 

magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net 

effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate 

feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative 

feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive 

feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the 

boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this 

region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate 

system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and 

evaluate the feedback pathways. 


Volume 40 

Issue 7 

Pages 1336-1346 



DOI 10.1139/X09-209 

ISSN 1208-6037 




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The circumpolar Arctic vegetation map 


Author Donald A. Walker 

Author Martha K. Raynolds 

Author Fred J. A. Daniëls 

Author Eythor Einarsson 

Author Arve Elvebakk 

Author William A. Gould 

Author Adrian E. Katenin 

Author Sergei S. Kholod 

Author Carl J. Markon 

Author Evgeny S. Melnikov 

Author Natalia G. Moskalenko 

Author Stephen S. Talbot 

Author Boris A. Yurtsev 

Author The other members of the CAVM Team 

Abstract • Question: What are the major vegetation units in the Arctic, what is their composition, and how are they 

distributed among major bioclimate subzones and countries? • Location: The Arctic tundra region, north of the 

tree line. • Methods: A photo-interpretive approach was used to delineate the vegetation onto an Advanced Very 

High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) base image. Mapping experts within nine Arctic regions prepared draft 

maps using geographic information technology (ArcInfo) of their portion of the Arctic, and these were later 

synthesized to make the final map. Area analysis of the map was done according to bioclimate subzones, and 

country. The integrated mapping procedures resulted in other maps of vegetation, topography, soils, landscapes, 

lake cover, substrate pH, and above-ground biomass. • Results: The final map was published at 1:7 500 000 

scale map. Within the Arctic (total area = 7.11 × 106 km²), about 5.05 × 10⁶ km² is vegetated. The remainder is 

ice covered. The map legend generally portrays the zonal vegetation within each map polygon. About 26% of 

the vegetated area is erect shrublands, 18% peaty graminoid tundras, 13% mountain complexes, 12% barrens, 

11% mineral graminoid tundras, 11% prostrate-shrub tundras, and 7% wetlands. Canada has by far the most 

terrain in the High Arctic mostly associated with abundant barren types and prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, 

whereas Russia has the largest area in the Low Arctic, predominantly low-shrub tundra. • Conclusions: The 

CAVM is the first vegetation map of an entire global biome at a comparable resolution. The consistent treatment 

of the vegetation across the circumpolar Arctic, abundant ancillary material, and digital database should 

promote the application to numerous land-use, and climate-change applications and will make updating the map 

relatively easy. 


Volume 16 

Issue 3 

Pages 267-282 



DOI 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2005.tb02365.x 

ISSN 1100-9233 


Extra Keywords: AVHRR; bioclimate zone; geographic information system; plant functional type; radiometer; tundra. 



The climates of North America: According to a new classification 


Author C. Warren Thornthwaite 


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Publication Geographical Review 

Volume 21 

Issue 4 

Pages 633–655 



ISSN 0016-7428 

Short Title The climates of North America 




The contemporary fire regime of the central Appalachian Mountains and its relation to climate 



Author Jennifer A. Hoss 


Abstract This paper uses records of wildland fire to investigate the contemporary fire regime on federal lands in the 

central Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and West Virginia. During the study period (1970-2003), 1557 

anthropogenic fires and 344 natural fires occurred on these lands. Most were small, low-intensity burns. 

However, fires of moderate to high intensity also occurred, and because of their larger sizes they were 

responsible for most of the area burned. Fire size also differed between natural and anthropogenic fires (median 

size 1.2 ha vs. 0.4 ha). A few of the anthropogenic fires were quite large, however (up to 6484 ha), whereas the 

largest natural fire measured only 1188 ha. Anthropogenic fires burned more area than natural fires and 

consequently they had a shorter fire cycle (1196 years for anthropogenic fires, 6138 years for natural fires). 

These fire cycles appear to be much longer than in the past, prior to fire suppression. Nonetheless, despite 

suppression efforts, a substantial amount of fire activity occurred during the study period when conditions were 

sufficiently dry. The dry conditions of spring and fall were especially favorable for burning. Moreover, on an 

interannual level, drought had a strong influence on the amount of fire activity. 

Publication Physical Geography 

Volume 26 

Issue 2 

Pages 126–146 

Date March-April 2005 

Journal Abbr Phys. Geogr. 

DOI 10.2747/0272-3646.26.2.126 

ISSN 0272-3646 

URL http://bellwether.metapress.com/content/x454k19804715134/ 

Extra Keywords: anthropogenic fire; fire cycle; forest disturbance; lightning; natural fire; Virginia; West Virginia; 

wildland fire. 



The decline of forest farming in southern Appalachia 


Author John Solomon Otto 


Publication Journal of Forest History 

Volume 27 

Issue 1 

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Pages 18–27 


Journal Abbr Journal of Forest History 

DOI 10.2307/4004858 

ISSN 0094-5080 




The definition of El Niño 



Abstract A review is given of the meaning of the term “El Ninõ” and how it has changed in time, so there is no universal 

single definition. This needs to be recognized for scientific uses, and precision can only be achieved if the 

particular definition is identified in each use to reduce the possibility of misunderstanding. For quantitative 

purposes, possible definitions are explored that match the El Ninõs identified historically after 1950, and it is 

suggested that an El Ninõ can be said to occur if 5-month running means of sea surface temperature (SST) 

anomalies in the Ninõ 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) exceed 0.4°C for 6 months or more. With this 

definition, El Ninõs occur 31% of the time and La Ninãs (with an equivalent definition) occur 23% of the time. 

The histogram of Ninõ 3.4 SST anomalies reveals a bimodal character. An advantage of such a definition is 

that it allows the beginning, end, duration, and magnitude of each event to be quantified. Most El Ninõs begin in 

the northern spring or perhaps summer and peak from November to January in sea surface temperatures. 


Volume 78 

Issue 12 

Pages 2771–2777 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)0782.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0477 


/1520-0477%281997%29078%3C2771%3ATDOENO%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



The demise of fire and "mesophication" of forests in the eastern United States 




Abstract A diverse array of fire-adapted plant communities once covered the eastern United States. European settlement 

greatly altered fire regimes, often increasing fire occurrence (e.g., in northern hardwoods) or substantially 

decreasing it (e.g., in tallgrass prairies). Notwithstanding these changes, fire suppression policies, beginning 

around the 1920s, greatly reduced fire throughout the East, with profound ecological consequences. 

Fire-maintained open lands converted to closed-canopy forests. As a result of shading, shade-tolerant, 

fire-sensitive plants began to replace heliophytic (sun-loving), fire-tolerant plants. A positive feedback 

cycle—which we term “mesophication”—ensued, whereby microenvironmental conditions (cool, damp, and 

shaded conditions; less flammable fuel beds) continually improve for shade-tolerant mesophytic species and 

deteriorate for shade-intolerant, fire-adapted species. Plant communities are undergoing rapid compositional and 

structural changes, some with no ecological antecedent. Stand-level species richness is declining, and will 

decline further, as numerous fire-adapted plants are replaced by a limited set of shade-tolerant, fire-sensitive 

species. As this process continues, the effort and cost required to restore fire-adapted ecosystems escalate 

rapidly. 

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Volume 58 

Issue 2 

Pages 123-138 



DOI 10.1641/B580207 

ISSN 0006-3568 

URL http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1641/B580207 

Extra Keywords: fire-adapted species; oak-pine; prescribed burning; forest floor; restoration. 



The diversification of Paleozoic fire systems and fluctuations in atmospheric oxygen concentration 



Author Ian J. Glasspool 

Abstract By comparing Silurian through end Permian [≈250 million years (Myr)] charcoal abundance with 

contemporaneous macroecological changes in vegetation and climate we aim to demonstrate that long-term 

variations in fire occurrence and fire system diversification are related to fluctuations in Late Paleozoic 

atmospheric oxygen concentration. Charcoal, a proxy for fire, occurs in the fossil record from the Late Silurian 

(≈420 Myr) to the present. Its presence at any interval in the fossil record is already taken to constrain 

atmospheric oxygen within the range of 13% to 35% (the “fire window”). Herein, we observe that, as predicted, 

atmospheric oxygen levels rise from ≈13% in the Late Devonian to ≈30% in the Late Permian so, too, fires 

progressively occur in an increasing diversity of ecosystems. Sequentially, data of note include: the occurrence 

of charcoal in the Late Silurian/Early Devonian, indicating the burning of a diminutive, dominantly 

rhyniophytoid vegetation; an apparent paucity of charcoal in the Middle to Late Devonian that coincides with a 

predicted atmospheric oxygen low; and the subsequent diversification of fire systems throughout the remainder 

of the Late Paleozoic. First, fires become widespread during the Early Mississippian, they then become 

commonplace in mire systems in the Middle Mississippian; in the Pennsylvanian they are first recorded in 

upland settings and finally, based on coal petrology, become extremely important in many Permian mire settings. 

These trends conform well to changes in atmospheric oxygen concentration, as predicted by modeling, and 

indicate oxygen levels are a significant control on long-term fire occurrence. 


Volume 103 

Issue 29 

Pages 10861-10865 



Language 1091-6490 

DOI 10.1073/pnas.0604090103 


Extra Keywords: Earth system processes; global change; coal; charcoal; inertinite. 



The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses 



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Abstract Ruddiman (2003) proposed that late Holocene anthropogenic intervention caused CH₄ and CO₂ increases that 

kept climate from cooling and that preindustrial pandemics caused CO₂ decreases and a small cooling. Every 

aspect of this early anthropogenic hypothesis has been challenged: the timescale, the issue of stage 11 as a 

better analog, the ability of human activities to account for the gas anomalies, and the impact of the pandemics. 

This review finds that the late Holocene gas trends are anomalous in all ice timescales; greenhouse gases 

decreased during the closest stage 11 insolation analog; disproportionate biomass burning and rice irrigation can 

explain the methane anomaly; and pandemics explain half of the CO₂ decrease since 1000 years ago. Only 

∼25% of the CO₂ anomaly can, however, be explained by carbon from early deforestation. The remainder must 

have come from climate system feedbacks, including a Holocene ocean that remained anomalously warm 

because of anthropogenic intervention. 


Volume 45 

Issue 4 

Pages RG4001 (37 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2006RG000207 

ISSN 8755-1209 


Extra Keywords: anthropogenic; deforestation; Holocene. 



The ecology of fire 


Author Charles F. Cooper 

Abstract Fires play a role in shaping the world's grasslands and forests. Attempts to eliminate fire have introduced 

problems fully as serious as those created by accidental conflagrations. A discussion of the historical role of 

fires in conifer forests is included in this paper, which explains the adaptations of Douglas-fir, jack pine, 

ponderosa pine and longleaf pine to fire. 

Publication Scientific American 

Volume 204 

Issue 4 

Pages 150-160 


Journal Abbr Sci. Am. 

ISSN 0036-8733 

URL http://www.forestencyclopedia.net/c/c9034 



The effect of fires on susceptibility of subalpine forests to a 19th century spruce beetle outbreak in 

western Colorado 


Author Dominik Kulakowski 


Abstract In the subalpine forests of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, research on disturbances that have occurred over the 

past several decades has shown that prior occurrence of disturbances can alter the extent and severity of 

subsequent disturbances. In the current study, we consider how fire history affected stand susceptibility to a 

mid-19th century spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby 1837) outbreak. Twenty-one sites were 

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randomly located in an Engelmann spruce - subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. - Abies 

lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forest across ~2000 km² of the Grand Mesa area, Colorado. At each site, 

dendrochronological methods were used to reconstruct the history of severe fires and beetle outbreak. Standorigin 

dates were estimated by collecting increment cores from 20-27 of the largest trees at each sample site. 

The beetle outbreak was reconstructed based on coincident releases among nonhost trees that survived the 

outbreak. Forest stands originated following severe fires in ca. 1790, ca. 1740, and ca. 1700. The 1840's 

outbreak affected 67% of these stands. Stands that initiated following the ca. 1790 fire were less susceptible to 

the outbreak than older stands. These findings indicate that stand-replacing fires have mitigated susceptibility to 

outbreaks of spruce beetles not only during recent outbreaks, but also over the past centuries. 


Volume 36 

Issue 11 

Pages 2974-2982 



DOI 10.1139/x06-182 

ISSN 1208-6037 




The effects of surficial deposit–drainage combinations on spatial variations of fire cycles in the boreal 

forest of eastern Canada 


Author Nicolas Mansuy 


Author André Robitaille 


Abstract Spatial variations in the fire cycle of a large territory (190 000 km²) located in the boreal forest of eastern 

Canada were assessed using random sampling points. Our main objective was to determine if regions 

characterised by a large proportion of dry surficial deposit–drainage (SDD) burn more frequently than regions 

with a smaller proportion. Through a regionalisation of the landscape units, we analysed the effects of SDD on 

spatial variations of the fire cycle. A discriminant analysis involving the SDD and other physical variables 

(precipitation, temperature, aridity index, water bodies, elevation and slope) made it possible to identify a 

combination of variables characterising each region. A considerable variation in fire cycle was observed among 

the different SDD types (from 144 to 425 years) and between regions (from 90 to 715 years). Through the 

discriminant analysis, this study suggests that a combination of possible climatic top-down (precipitation R² = 

0.727, aridity index R² = 0.663 and temperature R² = 0.574) and bottom-up factors (xeric undifferentiated till R² 

= 0.819 and humid undifferentiated till R² = 0.691) could explain this variation at the regional scale. 

Implications of those results for forest protection against fire and regional development are briefly discussed. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1083–1098 



DOI 10.1071/WF09144 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF09144 

Extra Keywords: climate; discriminant analyses; disturbance regime; drying potential; random sampling; regional 

scale; regionalisation; top-down and bottom-up factors. 



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The El Niño Southern Oscillation event in southeast Asia: Effects of drought and fire in tropical forest 

in eastern Borneo 


Author Mark Leighton 

Report Type to the World Wildlife Fund 

Place Cambridge, MA 

Institution Department of Anthropology, Harvard University 

Date 1984 

Pages 31 p. 

Short Title The El Nino Southern Oscillation Event in Southeast Asia 

URL http://www.worldwildlife.org/home-full.html 

Extra Unpublished report 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Leighton, M. 1984 The El Nino-southern oscillation event in Southeast Asia: effects of drought and fire in tropical forest in eastern 

Borneo. Unpublished report to the World Wildlife Fund, Department of Anthropology, Harvard University. 

The emergence of the wildland-urban interface concept 



Abstract The Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) is a common story line in many of today’s wildfire events. The WUI 

concept was formally introduced in 1987 Forest Service Research budget documents but was not acknowledged 

as a major component for federal fire management until the 2000 National Fire Plan. Although the 1987 

introduction was meant to increase research focus on demographic factors influencing fire and other resource 

management, its California roots can be traced to post-World War II civil defense concerns about fire and water. 

The author offers a personal perspective on why the WUI concept was promoted by the Forest Service at an 

inauspicious time for fire research. 

Publication Forest History Today 

Date Fall 2008 

Pages 12-18 

URL http://www.foresthistory.org/publications/FHT/fhtfall2008.html 



The factor of scale in ecosystem mapping 



Abstract Ecosystems come in many scales or relative sizes. The relationships between an ecosystem at one scale and 

ecosystems at smaller or larger scales must be examined in order to predict the effects of management 

prescriptions on resource outputs. A disturbance to an ecosystem may affect smaller component ecosystems, 

which are encompassed in larger systems that control the operation of the smaller systems. Environmental 

factors important in controlling ecosystem size change in nature with the scale of observation. This article 

reviews those environmental factors that are thought to be useful in recognizing and mapping ecosystems at 

various scales. 

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Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 271-275 



DOI 10.1007/BF01867299 

ISSN 0364-152X 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem; landscape ecology; resource surveys; mapping scale; maps. 



The fire history of an arid grassland: The influence of antecedent rainfall and ENSO 


Author Aaron C. Greenville 

Author Chris R. Dickman 

Author Glenda M. Wardle 

Author Mike Letnic 

Abstract Implementing appropriate fire regimes has become an increasingly important objective for biodiversity 

conservation programs. Here, we used Landsat imagery from 1972 to 2003 to describe the recent fire history 

and current wildfire regime of the north-eastern Simpson Desert, Australia, within each of the region’s seven 

main vegetation classes. We then explored the relationship between antecedent rainfall and El Niño–Southern 

Oscillation with wildfire area. Wildfires were recorded in 11 years between 1972 and 2003, each differing in 

size. In 1975, the largest wildfire was recorded, burning 55% (4561 km²) of the study region. Smaller fires in the 

intervening years burnt areas that had mostly escaped the 1975 fire, until 2002, when 31% (2544 km²) of the 

study region burnt again. Wildfires burnt disproportionally more spinifex (Triodia basedowii) than any other 

vegetation class. A total of 49% of the study area has burnt once since 1972 and 20% has burnt twice. Less than 

1% has burnt three times and 36% has remained unaffected by wildfire since 1972. The mean minimum fire 

return interval was 26 years. Two years of cumulative rainfall before a fire event, rainfall during the year of a 

fire event, and the mean Southern Oscillation Index from June to November in the year before a fire event 

could together be used to successfully predict wildfire area. We use these findings to describe the current fire 

regime. 


Volume 18 

Issue 6 

Pages 631-639 



DOI 10.1071/WF08093 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title The fire history of an arid grassland 


Extra Keywords: arid zone; Australia; GIS; Landsat; Simpson Desert; spinifex; wildfire regime. 



The forest that fire made 


Author S. W. Greene 

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Publication American Forests 

Volume 37 

Issue 10 

Pages 583–584, 618 


Journal Abbr Am. Forests 

ISSN 0002-8541 

URL http://www.forestencyclopedia.net/p/p844/? 

searchterm=S.%20W.%20Greene 



The future of scenarios: Issues in developing new climate change scenarios 


Author Hugh M. Pitcher 

Abstract In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate 

model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first 

phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues 

raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 

2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the 

second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to 

the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the 

appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with 

moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for 

impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the 

policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues 

are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to 

form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed. 


Volume 4 

Issue 2 

Pages 025002 (7 p.) 

Date April-June 2009 


DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/025002 

ISSN 1748-9326 


key=crossref.c0ba3469acdec116bc2316daed87290b 

Extra Keywords: climate change scenarios; transitions; downscaling; likelihood. 



The general circulation of the atmosphere: A numerical experiment 


Author Norman A. Phillips 

Abstract A long-period numerical forecast is made with a two-level quasi-geostrophic model, starting with an atmosphere 

in relative rest. Both friction and non-adiabatic effects are included in the equations, the latter as a linear 

function of latitude. Principal empirical elements in the experiment are the intensity of the heating, the value of 

the vertical stability, and the type of frictional dissipation. The flow patterns which develop are quite realistic, 

including a jet and ZOMI surface westerlies in middle latitudes, and the growth of a large disturbance. The 

associated energy transformations are investigated, and demonstrate the important role of the disturbance in the 

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development of the zonal currents. The meridional circulation is also studied, together with its contribution to 

the zonal momentum budgets of the lower and upper halves of the atmosphere. Truncation errors eventually put 

an end to the forecast by producing a large fictitious increase in energy. 


Volume 82 

Issue 352 

Pages 123–164 



DOI 10.1002/qj.49708235202 

ISSN 0035-9009 

URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49708235202/abstract 



The geography of fire: A paleo perspective 

Type Thesis 


Abstract Fire is a fundamental, transforrnative, yet poorly understood process in the Earth system; it can radically 

reorganize ecosystems, alter regional carbon and energy balances, and change global climate. Short-telID fire 

histories can be reconstructed from satellite (seasonal- to interannual-scales), historical (decadal scales), or 

dendrochronological records (for recent centuries), but only sedimentary charcoal records enable an analysis of 

the complex interactions between climate, vegetation and people that drive fire activity over longer temporal 

scales. This dissertation describes the compilation, synthesis and analysis of a global paleofire dataset and its 

application to understanding past, current, and future changes in fire activity. Specifically, I co-led efforts to 

compile charcoal records around the world into a single database, and to conduct three meta-analyses to 

understand the controls on fire at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The first meta-analysis reconstructed 

global biomass burning since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 21,000 years ago. Results from this study 

demonstrated that global fire activity is low when conditions are cool and high when conditions are warm. This 

fundamental relationship between climate and fire is due in large part to associated changes in vegetation 

productivity. The second metaanalysis examined fire activity in North America during past abrupt climate 

changes and looked for evidence of continental-scale wildfires associated with a hypothesized comet impact 

~13,000 years ago. This analysis found a correlation between increased fire activity and abrupt climate change, 

but provided no evidence for continental-scale wildfires. A final meta-analysis disentangled the climate and 

human influences on global biomass burning during the past 2000 years; it found a close relationship between 

climate change and biomass burning until ~1750 A.D., when human activities became a primary driver of global 

fire activity. Together, these three meta-analyses demonstrate that climate change is the primary control of 

global fire activity over long time scales. In general, global fire activity increases when the Earth's climate 

warms and decreases when climate cools. The paleofire data and analyses suggest that the rapid climate changes 

projected for coming decades will lead to widespread increases in fire frequency and biomass burning. 

Type A dissertation presented to the Department of Geography and the Graduate School of the University of Oregon 

in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 

University University of Oregon 

Place Eugene, OR 



URL http://hdl.handle.net/1794/10334 

Library Catalog University of Oregon Libraries 



The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire 

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Author Guy F. Midgley 

Abstract Summary: • This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns 

by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected 

under the ambient climate (climate potential). • To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without 

fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from 

different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellitederived 

land- and tree-cover maps. • Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies 

in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps 

show that vast areas of humid C₄ grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the 

climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, 

closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C₄ plants but 

also of C₃ shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. • C₄ grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human 

influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, 

splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa. 

Publication New Phytologist 

Volume 165 

Issue 2 

Pages 525–538 


Journal Abbr New Phytol. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01252.x 

ISSN 1469-8137 


Extra Keywords: climate-vegetation relationships; dynamic global vegetation models; fire ecology; global biomes; 

plant biogeography. 



The historical foundations of prescribed burning for wildlife: A southeastern perspective 


Author A. Sydney Johnson 

Author Philip E. Hale 

Abstract Controlled burning has deep historical roots in the South, where the practice was quickly adopted from the 

Indians by early European settlers. It became used widely, primarily to improve forage conditions for 

free-ranging cattle and to improve visibility and access. Likewise, hunting is deeply imbedded in southern 

culture and was an attraction to visitors throughout the 19th Century. This was especially true of quail (Colinus 

virginianus) hunting, and after the Civil War wealthy northerners began to buy large plantations for hunting 

retreats. In the 1920's Herbert L. Stoddard documented the necessity of prescribed burning to maintain 

bobwhite quail habitat on these plantations. Opposition to the practice among foresters and public agencies was 

fierce, and Stoddard became an outspoken advocate of light winter burning in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) 

and, later, certain other forest types. Use of prescribed fire in forestry and game management was gradually 

accepted. But, although some naturalists such as Stoddard were interested in the effects of fire on native flora 

and nongame wildlife, private landowners and public agencies generally showed little interest in managing 

specifically for nongame wildlife until the 1970's. By then, there was in the southern states a background of 50 

years of research and many more years of practical experience in the use of fire that could be applied to this 

new goal. Soon, any biologists and managers recognized that prescribed burning would play a nearly essential 

role in managing certain nongame species. And, as new management goals evolved, fire regimes other than light 

winter burning also came under scrutiny for potential use in restoration and maintenance of certain natural 

communities. 

Report Number GTR-NE-288 



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Notes: 

Citation: 

Institution U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station 

Date 2002 

Pages 11-23 

Short Title The historical foundations of prescribed burning for wildlife 



Extra In: Ford, W. Mark; Russell, Kevin R.; Moorman, Christopher E., eds. Proceedings: the role of fire for nongame 

wildlife management and community restoration: traditional uses and new directions. 



Johnson, A. Sydney; Hale, Philip E. 2002. The historical foundations of prescribed burning for wildlife: a southeastern perspective. 

In: Ford, W. Mark; Russell, Kevin R.; Moorman, Christopher E., eds. Proceedings: the role of fire for nongame wildlife management 

and community restoration: traditional uses and new directions. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-288. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Dept. of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. 11-23. 

The history of fire in the southern United States 


Author Cynthia Fowler 

Author Evelyn Konopik 

Abstract Anthropogenic fires have been a key form of disturbance in southern ecosystems for more than 10,000 years. 

Archaeological and ethnohistorical information reveal general patterns in fire use during the five major cultural 

periods in the South; these are Native American prehistory, early European settlement, industrialization, fire 

suppression, and fire management. Major shifts in cultural traditions are linked to significant transitions in fire 

regimes. A holistic approach to fire ecology is necessary for illuminating the multiple, complex links between 

the cultural history of the South and the evolution of southern ecosystems. The web of connections between 

history, society, politics, economy, and ecology are inherent to the phenomena of fire. 

Publication Human Ecology Review 

Volume 14 

Issue 2 

Pages 165–176 

Date Winter 2007 

Journal Abbr Human Ecology Review 

ISSN 1074-4827 

URL http://www.humanecologyreview.org/142.htm 

Extra Keywords: fire; culture; Native Americans; US South. 



The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe 


Author David Barriopedro 




Author Ricardo Garcia-Herrera 

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Abstract The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence 

that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the 

previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-year-long 

seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model 

experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing "mega-heatwaves" will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 

within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, 

the occurrence of an analogue over the same region remains fairly unlikely until the second half of the 21st 

century. 


Volume 332 

Issue 6026 

Pages 220-224 



DOI 10.1126/science.1201224 

ISSN 0036-8075 




The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe 


Author D. Barriopedro 

Author E. M. Fischer 

Author J. Luterbacher 

Author R. M. Trigo 

Author R. Garcia-Herrera 

Abstract The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence 

that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the 

previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-year-long 

seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model 

experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing "mega-heatwaves" will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 

within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, 

the occurrence of an analogue over the same region remains fairly unlikely until the second half of the 21st 

century. 


Date 03/2011 


DOI 10.1126/science.1201224 

ISSN 0036-8075 



Date Added Friday, March 18, 2011 9:42:04 AM 


Attachments 

Barriopedro et al_2010 European heat wave_Science_2011.pdf 

Barriopedro-SOM_2011.pdf 

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming 

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Author Heping Liu 

Author Mark G. Flanner 

Author Scott D. Chambers 

Author Yufang Jin 

Author Peter G. Hess 

Author Gabriele Pfister 


Author Kathleen K. Treseder 

Author Lisa R. Welp 

Author F. Stuart Chapin 



Author Evan Lyons 


Author Edward Arthur George Schuur 

Author Charles S. Zender 

Abstract We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, 

aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of 

all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), 

but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (−2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) 

because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This 

result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming. 


Volume 314 

Issue 5802 

Pages 1130-1132 



DOI 10.1126/science.1132075 

ISSN 0036-8075 




The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino 


Author Mat Collins 

Author Soon-Il An 

Author Wenju Cai 

Author Alexandre Ganachaud 

Author Eric Guilyardi 

Author Fei-Fei Jin 

Author Markus Jochum 

Author Matthieu Lengaigne 

Author Scott Power 


Author Gabe Vecchi 

Author Andrew Wittenberg 

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Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical 

Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather 

events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably 

undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean 

temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial 

thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to 

shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year 

ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of 

the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be 

modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of 

climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say 

whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change. 


Volume 3 

Issue 6 

Pages 391-397 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo868 

ISSN 1752-0894 




The impact of pine beetle infestation on snow accumulation and melt in the headwaters of the Colorado 

River 


Author Evan Pugh 

Author Eric Small 

Abstract The mountain pine beetle is killing many trees in Colorado's high-elevation forests. The thinned canopies found 

in dead tree stands should intercept less snow and transmit more radiation than canopies in living forests, 

altering snow accumulation and melt processes. We compare snow, forest, and meteorological properties 

beneath living and pine beetle-killed tree stands. Eight pairs of living and dead tree stands were monitored over 

two years along the headwaters of the Colorado River. During year one, all eight dead stands were in the red 

phase of tree death — the trees still retained needles. Snow accumulation was the same under living and red 

phase stands, but snow melt was more rapid in red phase stands. As a result, the snowpack was depleted one 

week earlier in the red phase stands. Canopy shortwave transmission was not higher in red phase stands. We 

hypothesize that the faster melt and earlier depletion in red phase stands was caused by accelerated needle loss 

which lowers the albedo of the snow surface. By year two, many of the dead trees had progressed to the 

needle-less grey phase of tree death. Snow accumulation in grey phase stands was 15% higher than in paired 

living stands. Snow in grey phase stands melted more rapidly than in living stands, likely as a result of increased 

canopy shortwave transmission. We combine our results with those from previous studies to develop a 

conceptual model that describes how beetle infestation affects snow accumulation and melt in the different 

stages of mortality. 

Publication Ecohydrology 

Volume Article first published online 


Journal Abbr Ecohydrol. 

DOI 10.1002/eco.239 

ISSN 1936-0584 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/eco.239 

Extra Keywords: forest snow hydrology; mountain pine beetle; snow accumulation; canopy interception; snowmelt; 

canopy transmission; tree death. 


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The Indian as an ecological factor in the northeastern forest 


Author Gordon M. Day 



Volume 34 

Issue 2 

Pages 329–346 



DOI 10.2307/1930900 

ISSN 0012-9658 




The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climatechange 

policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases 


Author Roger A. Pielke Sr. 


Author Richard A. Betts 

Author Thomas N. Chase 

Author Joseph L. Eastman 

Author John O. Niles 

Author Dev dutta S. Niyogi 


Abstract Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy 

budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the 

carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual 

metric of ‘global warming potential’. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's 

surface-energy budget. This ‘regional climate change potential’ could offer a new metric for developing a more 

inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential 

local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity. 


Volume 360 

Issue 1797 

Pages 1705-1719 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2002.1027 

ISSN 1364-503X 

Short Title The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system 


Extra Keywords: global climate change; regional climate change; landscape change; landscape dynamics; climatesystem 

dynamics. 


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The influence of prehistoric human-set fires on oak-chestnut forests in the southern Appalachians 




Abstract Fossil pollen and charcoal in peat deposits and pond sediments from three sites in the southern Appalachians 

yielded evidence for a direct relationship between prehistoric Native American use of fire and increases in the 

importance of oak-chestnut forest between about 3,000 and 1,000 years ago. At Cliff Palace Pond on the 

Cumberland Plateau of southeastern Kentucky, Tuskegee Pond, in the Ridge and Valley of East Tennessee, and 

Horse Cove Bog in the Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina, increases in fire frequency 

corresponded with the change in Native American activities from hunting and gathering in the Late Archaic 

cultural period toward more sedentary lifestyles and cultivation of native plants in the Woodland cultural period. 

Forests of oak and chestnut became dominant on upper slopes, with fire-adapted pines establishing on ridge tops 

and disturbance-adapted hardwoods invading abandoned Indian old fields. We speculate that prehistoric Native 

American use of fire would have been an intermediate-scale disturbance regime that would have heightened 

ecotonal contrast across plant community boundaries and would also have increased biological diversity across 

the landscape. 

Publication Castanea 

Volume 63 

Issue 3 

Pages 337–345 


Journal Abbr Castanea 

ISSN 0008-7475 




The Köppen classification of climates in North America 


Author Edward A. Ackerman 


Publication Geographical Review 

Volume 31 

Issue 1 

Pages 105–111 



ISSN 0016-7428 




The landscape ecology of fire 

Type Book 

Editor Donald McKenzie 

Editor Carol S. Miller 

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Editor Donald A. Falk 

Abstract Global warming is expected to change fire regimes, likely increasing the severity and extent of wildfires in many 

ecosystems around the world. What will be the landscape-scale effects of these altered fire regimes? Within 

what theoretical contexts can we accurately assess these effects? We explore the possible effects of altered fire 

regimes on landscape patch dynamics, dominant species (tree, shrub, or herbaceous) and succession, sensitive 

and invasive plant and animal species and communities, and ecosystem function. Ultimately, we must consider 

the human dimension: what are the policy and management implications of increased fire disturbance, and what 

are the implications for human communities? 


Volume 213 




Date 2011 


ISBN 978-94-007-0300-1 


Extra Keywords: climate change; ecosystem resilience; landscape fire; top-down and bottom-up controls. 



The landscape ecology of western forest fire regimes 



Abstract Flre has had a major role in shaping the forested landscapes of the American West. In recent decades, major 

effort to quantify that role have been made, and characteristisc of historic fire regimes have been defined: 

frequency, magnitude, variability, seasonality, synergism, and extent. Together, these characterisrics also defined 

the historic landscape effects of fire in low-, moderate-, and high-severity fire regimes. Coarse-filter 

conservation strategies typically rely on knorwledge of natural disturbance regimes to define appropriate forest 

structure goals, both at the stand and landscape scale, and these will differ by fire regime. Historic patch size 

increased across the low- to high-severity spectrum, but edge was maximized in the moderate-severity fire 

regime. Fire exclusion in the 20th century has caused two major types of landscape change: loss of openings in 

once patchy landscapes, and imposition of high-severity landscape dynamic in areas where wildfires that escape 

suppression now burn. Effects of historical fire regimes may be in some cases either difficult to mimic or 

undesirable. 


Volume 72 


Pages 24–34 

Date 1998 


ISSN 0029-344X 

URL http://www.vetmed.wsu.edu/org_NWS/NWSci%20journal%20articles/1998%20files/1998%20Vol%2072.htm 



The late Quaternary climate of coastal California: Evidence for an ice age refugium 


Author Donald Lee Johnson 

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Abstract The present Mediterranean climate of coastal California is unique in North America and reflects the interaction 

of several important synoptic controls, principally the North Pacific semipermanent anticyclone, and to a lesser 

extent the Aleutian low-pressure system and the cool California oceanic current. These synoptic climatic 

controls, key parts of the global air-sea circulation, were probably operative throughout late Quaternary time as 

shown by paleoecologic evidence. The thick accumulations of sediments in basins of offshore California 

indicate that while variable sedimentation regimes reflect changing climatic and oceanographic conditions, the 

Quaternary climate was probably semiarid as now, even during glacial maxima. Late Quaternary coastal dunes 

preserve former wind directions and show that prevailing late Quaternary winds were directionally equivalent to 

modern winds, which are controlled by the North Pacific anticyclone and by interactions between the North 

Pacific high and the interior basin low. These sand dunes contain buried, datable, carbonate-rich soils. 

Precipitation then, like the present rainfall regime, was not enough to leach the carbonates from the soils. 

Charcoal in buried dunes and soils shows that fire was environmentally important throughout the Quaternary, 

just as it is today. Fossil plants indicate that sclerophyllous vegetation and forest stands of conifers, adapted to a 

Mediterranean climate, were widely distributed during late Quaternary time. Fossil pollen in the Sierra Nevada 

indicates the influence of the North Pacific high. The historical precipitation record overlaps a late Holocene 

tree-ring record permitting extrapolation of the precipitation curve back nearly 600 years. Well-defined wet and 

dry trends in the precipitation pattern characterized this time span, and provide a possible analog to the earlier 

Holocene and Pleistocene precipitation regime. The paleoecologic record shows that the late Quaternary climate 

of coastal California was characterized by regimes similar to those prevailing today. The persistence of a 

Mediterranean climate in California during the last glaciation contrasts with dramatic climatic changes 

experienced in glaciated parts of North America. California thus was an Ice Age refugium for animals and 

cold-sensitive plants. 


Volume 8 

Issue 2 

Pages 154-179 



DOI 10.1016/0033-5894(77)90043-6 

ISSN 0033-5894 

Short Title The late Quaternary climate of coastal California 




The longleaf pine ecosystem: Ecology, silviculture, and restoration 

Type Book 

Editor Shibu Jose 

Editor Eric J. Jokela 

Editor Deborah L. Miller 

Abstract Description: This book unites a wealth of current information on the ecology, silviculture and restoration of the 

Longleaf Pine ecosystem. The book includes a discussion of the significant historical, social and political aspects 

of ecosystem management, making it a valuable resource for students, land managers, ecologists, private 

landowners, government agencies, consultants and the forest products industry. 

Series Springer Series on Environmental Management 




Date May 2006 


ISBN 0387296557, 978-038729655-5 




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The Native population of the Americas in 1492 

Type Book 

Editor William M. Denevan 


Edition 2nd revised edition, illustrated 

Place Madison, WI 

Publisher University of Wisconsin Press 



ISBN 0299134342, 9780299134341 

URL http://uwpress.wisc.edu/books/0289.htm 

Archive http://books.google.com/books?id=5m4VQFRzh_gC& 



Notes: 


• List of Tables 

• List of Maps 

• List of Figures 

• Foreword 

• Native American Populations in 1492: Recent Research and a Revised 

Hemispheric Estimate 

• Supplementary Bibliography 

• Preface to the First Edition 

• Acknowledgments 

I. Estimating the Unknown 

Introduction 

1. The Historical Demography of Aboriginal and Colonial America: An 

Attempt at Perspective 

II. The Caribbean, Central America, and Yucatan 

Introduction 

2. The Population of Hispaniola at the Time of Columbus 

3. The Indian Slave Trade and Population of Nicaragua during the Sixteenth 

Century 

III. Mexico 

Introduction 

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4. The Population of the Central Mexican Symbiotic Region, the Basin of 

Mexico, and the Teotihuacan Valley in the Sixteenth Century 

IV. South America 

Introduction 

5. A Defense of Small Population Estimates for the Central Andes in 1520 

6. A Reexamination of Aboriginal Population Estimates for Argentina 

7. The Abor iginal Population of Amazonia 

V. North America 

Introduction 

8. The Sources and Methodology for Mooney's Estimates of North American 

• Epilogue 

• Glossary 

Indian Populations 

• Bibliography 

• Index 

The nature and influence of fire in Carboniferous ecosystems 



Author Timothy P. Jones 

Abstract Fusain occurs widely in Carboniferous coals and sediments. It is now recognised to represent charcoal and be 

the product of wildfire. The occurrence of fire is partly constrained by atmospheric oxygen levels, availability 

and nature of fuel and by aspects of climate (rainfall and seasonability in particular). The majority of fires in the 

Carboniferous were probably started by lightning strikes or by volcanic activity. Experiments on the charring of 

modern plants has shown that the reflectance of charcoal (and hence fusain) is directly related to temperature of 

formation. Different fire types may yield fusain assemblages of differing reflectance spectrums, but it may be 

significant that many modern charcoal assemblages yield only semifusinites (as seen by reflectance 

microscopy). The significance of these findings is assessed in relation to the use of fusinites and semifusinites as 

depositional indicators, as interpreted from coal petrology. Fires may have a dramatic effect on ecosystems, not 

only causing changes in vegetational succession but also severe erosion can occur following a major fire which 

can be traced in depositional systems. In this paper we document three major Carboniferous sedimentary 

systems affected by fire: clastic sedimentary systems, using extensive fusain deposits in mid-Lower 

Carboniferous, near-shore sediments in Donegal, Ireland; volcanic systems using late Early Carboniferous, 

volcaniclastic sequences in the Midland Valley of Scotland; and coal and coal-bearing sequences in the Upper 

Carboniferous (Westphalian B) of the Pennine Basin, England. In the later settings the influence of fire in peat 

formation and succession is assessed. In addition, data on the vegetational composition of charcoal assemblages 

is considered. It is concluded that fire plays a major role in many Carboniferous ecosystems. 


Volume 106 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 91–112 



DOI 10.1016/0031-0182(94)90005-1 

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ISSN 0031-0182 




The nature and origin of fusain 


Author Colin Hayter Crickmay 



Volume 16 

Issue 1 

Pages 94–98 



ISSN 0003-0031 




The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere 

Type Book 



Series Issue 218 of World Meteorological Organization publications 


Place Geneva, Switzerland 

Publisher World Meteorological Organization 

Date 1967 


ISBN ASIN: B0006CHWHG 

URL http://eapsweb.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/publications.htm 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Lorenz, E.N., 1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. WMO-No. 218, TP 115, 161 pp. 

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment 

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Author Richard H. Moss 

Author Jae A. Edmonds 

Author Kathy A. Hibbard 

Author Martin R. Manning 

Author Steven K. Rose 

Author Detlef P. van Vuuren 

Author Timothy R. Carter 

Author Seita Emori 

Author Mikiko Kainuma 

Author Tom Kram 


Author John F. B. Mitchell 

Author Nebojsa Nakicenovic 

Author Keywan Riahi 

Author Steven J. Smith 


Author Allison M. Thomson 

Author John P. Weyant 

Author Thomas J. Wilbanks 

Abstract Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent 

variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of 

climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to 

changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, 

lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, 

necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response 

options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change 

mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information 

among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios 

to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global 

community. 


Volume 463 

Issue 7282 

Pages 747-756 



DOI 10.1038/nature08823 

ISSN 0028-0836 




The origin of the savanna biome 


Author David J. Beerling 

Author Colin P. Osborne 

Abstract Savannas are a major terrestrial biome, comprising of grasses with the C₄ photosynthetic pathway and trees with 

the C₃ type. This mixed grass–tree biome rapidly appeared on the ecological stage 8 million years ago with the 

near-synchronous expansion of C₄ grasses around the world. We propose a new hypothesis for this global event 

based on a systems analysis that integrates recent advances in how fire influences cloud microphysics, climate 

and savanna ecology in a low carbon dioxide (CO₂) world. We show that fire accelerates forest loss and C4 

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grassland expansion through multiple positive feedback loops that each promote drought and more fire. A low 

CO₂ atmosphere amplifies this cycle by limiting tree recruitment, allowing the ingress of C₄ grasses to greatly 

increase ecosystem flammability. Continued intensification of land use could enhance or moderate the network 

of feedbacks that have initiated, promoted and sustained savannas for millions of years. We suggest these 

alterations will overprint the effects of anthropogenic atmospheric change in coming decades. 


Volume 12 

Issue 11 

Pages 2023-2031 



DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01239.x 

ISSN 1354-1013 


Extra Keywords: carbon dioxide; C₄ photosynthesis; cloud physics; feedbacks; fire; smoke; systems analysis. 



The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome 

distributions for the twenty-first century 


Author Ulrich Salzmann 

Author Alan M. Haywood 

Author Daniel J. Lunt 

Abstract During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with 

higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 

‘test bed’ for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated 

global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle 

Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560 ppmv atmospheric CO₂. In 

accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, 

resulting in a northward shift of the taiga–tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannahs and woodland in 

Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data–model comparison reveals differences in the 

distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still 

warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider 

multipliers associated with ‘long-term’ climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome 

distributions, at higher atmospheric CO₂ levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the 

Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century. 


Volume 367 

Issue 1886 

Pages 189-204 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2008.0200 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: climate change; vegetation; Pliocene; palaeobotany; general circulation model. 



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The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change 



Author John S. Daniel 

Author Ryan R. Neely III 

Author Jean-Paul Vernier 

Author Ellsworth G. Dutton 

Author Larry W. Thomason 

Abstract Recent measurements demonstrate that the “background” stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable 

rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that 

stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a 

negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about –0.1 watt per square 

meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier 

periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about –0.1 watt per square meter from 

1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative 

forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase. 


Volume 333 

Issue 6044 

Pages 866-870 



DOI 10.1126/science.1206027 

ISSN 0036-8075 





The Peshtigo fire, October 8, 1871: Calamity and response 

Type Thesis 

Author Nathan Flesch 

Abstract On October 8, 1871 a fire raged through northeastern Wisconsin burning over 1.5 million acres of land and 

killing between one and two thousand people. Because of the extent of the fire it is difficult to even determine 

how many people perished in the fire but it is considered to be the deadliest fire in American history. The fire is 

named after Peshtigo because the town experienced the worst but many other towns were affected. The 

circumstances surrounding the Peshtigo fire were unique for several reasons. In some areas the fire left nothing 

for miles. In addition, the on the very same evening a fire burned down much of Chicago. The paper focuses on 

the accounts of the witnesses and survivors and the state and nationwide relief effort. 

Type History B.A. Theses 

University University of Wisconsin 

Place Madison, WI 

Date Jul 14, 2009 


Short Title The Peshtigo Fire, October 8, 1871 

URL http://digital.library.wisc.edu/1793/35448 

Loc. in Archive University of Wisconsin 




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The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions 


Author Ed Hawkins 

Author Rowan Sutton 

Abstract Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly 

seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and 

for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements 

—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three 

distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of 

climate models, we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature 

on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is 

dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress 

in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. 

Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation 

are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive 

adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight 

the need for much more work to compare (a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of 

uncertainty and (b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our 

study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising 

opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty. 


Volume 90 

Issue 8 

Pages 1095–1107 



DOI 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 





The Pre-Quaternary history of fire 



Abstract Although evidence for land vegetation comes from the Silurian, and maybe even earlier, the first record of fossil 

charcoal (fusain) is from the late Devonian. For this period there are only one or two isolated records. Not until 

the Early Carboniferous is there a record of extensive charcoal deposits, mainly preserved in near-shore clastic 

sediments, which provide evidence of significant and widespread wildfires. By the late Carboniferous charcoal 

was common or abundant in a wide range of facies, including tropical wetland peats. Wildfire played an 

important role in shaping the environment at this time. The latest Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic records of 

charcoal are fewer, whereas important deposits of late Mesozoic age are found worldwide. The occurrence of 

charcoal at the Cretaceous–Tertiary Boundary has been highlighted as evidence for a global fire following a 

meteorite impact, but this interpretation is questionable. Charcoal has been widely reported from Tertiary 

sediments and its appearance in the Quaternary and Recent is not solely as a result of human impact. Through 

the past 400 million years there have been major changes in atmospheric oxygen levels that affected fire 

intensity and frequency. Fire systems thus have a long history and their impact on shaping the environment is 

assessed. 


Volume 164 

Issue 1-4 

Pages 281-329 


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DOI 10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00192-9 

ISSN 0031-0182 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V6R-41N5G8T-R/2/c503b3495d5e82c031673f363315776a 

Extra Keywords: charcoal; fire; fossil; fusain; palaeoecology. 



The presettlement forest and natural disturbance cycle of northeastern Maine 


Author Craig G. Lorimer 

Abstract Land survey records of 1793—1827 containing forest data for 1.65 x 10⁶ ha of northern Maine were analyzed 

for species composition, successional status, and frequency of large—scale disturbance. Quantitative data 

consists of 1,448 sample trees spaced 1.6 km apart along a 9.7— x 9.7—km grid. Species which each comprised 

> 10% of the total were Picea spp., Fagus grandifolia, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis, and Betula lutea. 

These forests appeared to be largely in a climax state as indicated by the dominance of shade—tolerance 

species and the small percentage (8%) of intolerant or early successional species. However, 9.3% of the tract 

was burned land and birch—aspen forest at the time of the survey, mostly the result of large fires in 1803 and 

1825. Windfalls occurred along 2.6% of the surveyed distance. If the amount of disturbed forest at this time was 

typical of the natural disturbance regime, then the average recurrence interval of fire and large—scale 

windthrow for a given site would be 800 and 1,150 years, respectively. Data on the structure of remnant virgin 

stands in the region likewise suggest that the time interval between severe disturbances was much longer than 

that needed to attain a climax, all—aged structure. 


Volume 58 

Issue 1 

Pages 139–148 



DOI 10.2307/1935115 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: climax; disturbance; fire; forest structure; insect epidemics; Maine; presettlement forests; 

windthrow. 



The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: The Robert H. MacArthur award lecture 


Author Simon A. Levin 

Abstract It is argued that the problem of pattern and scale is the central problem in ecology, unifying population biology 

and ecosystems science, and marrying basic and applied ecology. Applied challenges, such as the prediction of 

the ecological causes and consequences of global climate change, require the interfacing of phenomena that 

occur on very different scales of space, time, and ecological organization. Furthermore, there is no single natural 

scale at which ecological phenomena should be studied; systems generally show characteristic variability on a 

range of spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. The observer imposes a perceptual bias, a filter through 

which the system is viewed. This has fundamental evolutionary significance, since every organism is an 

"observer" of the environment, and life history adaptations such as dispersal and dormancy alter the perceptual 

scales of the species, and the observed variability. It likewise has fundamental significance for our own study of 

ecological systems, since the patterns that are unique to any range of scales will have unique causes and 

biological consequences. The key to prediction and understanding lies in the elucidation of mechanisms 

underlying observed patterns. Typically, these mechanisms operate at different scales than those on which the 

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patterns are observed; in some cases, the patterns must be understood as emerging form the collective behaviors 

of large ensembles of smaller scale units. In other cases, the pattern is imposed by larger scale constraints. 

Examination of such phenomena requires the study of how pattern and variability change with the scale of 

description, and the development of laws for simplification, aggregation, and scaling. Examples are given from 

the marine and terrestrial literatures. 


Volume 73 

Issue 6 

Pages 1943–1967 



DOI 10.2307/1941447 

ISSN 0012-9658 

Short Title The problem of pattern and scale in ecology 


Extra Keywords: heterogeneity; patchiness; pattern; scale; variability. 



The relationship between land-use change and climate change 



Abstract Land-use change is related to climate change as both a causal factor and a major way in which the effects of 

climate change are expressed. As a causal factor, land use influences the flux of mass and energy, and as 

land-cover patterns change, these fluxes are altered. Projected climate alterations will produce changes in 

land-cover patterns at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, although human uses of the land are expected to 

override many effects. A review of the literature dealing with the relationship between land-use change and 

climate change clearly shows that (1) in recent centuries land-use change has had much greater effects on 

ecological variables than has climate change; (2) the vast majority of land-use changes have little to do with 

climate change or even climate; and (3) humans will change land use, and especially land management, to adjust 

to climate change and these adaptations will have some ecological effects. Therefore, an understanding of the 

nonclimatic causes of land-use change (e.g., socioeconomics and politics) are necessary to manage ecological 

functions effec-tively on regional and global scales. 


Volume 7 

Issue 3 

Pages 753–769 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0753:TRBLUC]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 


Extra Keywords: climate change, relation to land-use changes; forests, affected by climate change; global circulation 

models; global models of vegetation change; greenhouse gases, sources of; human- induced climate change; 

land-cover changes; land-use changes, non-climatic causes; land-use change and climate change; modeling 

carbon flux. 



The relative impact of harvest and fire upon landscape-level dynamics of older forests: Lessons from the 

Northwest Forest Plan 

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Author Sean P. Healey 


Author Thomas A. Spies 

Author Melinda Moeur 

Author Dirk Pflugmacher 

Author M. German Whitley 

Author Michael Lefsky 

Abstract Interest in preserving older forests at the landscape level has increased in many regions, including the Pacific 

Northwest of the United States. The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) of 1994 initiated a significant reduction in 

the harvesting of older forests on federal land. We used historical satellite imagery to assess the effect of this 

reduction in relation to: past harvest rates, management of non-federal forests, and the growing role of fire. 

Harvest rates in non-federal large-diameter forests (LDF) either decreased or remained stable at relatively high 

rates following the NWFP, meaning that harvest reductions on federal forests, which cover half of the region, 

resulted in a significant regional drop in the loss of LDF to harvest. However, increased losses of LDF to fire 

outweighed reductions in LDF harvest across large areas of the region. Elevated fire levels in the western United 

States have been correlated to changing climatic conditions, and if recent fire patterns persist, preservation of 

older forests in dry ecosystems will depend upon practical and coordinated fire management across the 

landscape. 


Volume 11 

Issue 7 

Pages 1106-1119 



DOI 10.1007/s10021-008-9182-8 

ISSN 1432-9840 

Short Title The Relative Impact of Harvest and Fire upon Landscape-Level Dynamics of Older Forests 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/027220017657k848/ 

Extra Keywords: disturbance; fire; landsat; forest management; Northwest Forest Plan; old growth. 



The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in subalpine forests 


Author W. C. Bessie 


Abstract Surface fire intensity (kilowatts per metre) and crown fire initiation were predicted using Rothermel's 1972 and 

Van Wagner's 1977 fire models with fuel data from 47 upland subalpine conifer stands varying in age from 

22—258 yr and 35 yr of daily weather data (fuel moisture and wind speeds). Rothermel's intensity model was 

divided into a fuel component variable and weather component variable, which were then used to examine the 

relative roles of fuel and weather on surface fire intensity (kilowatts per metre). Similar variables were defined 

in the crown fire initiation model of Van Wagner. Both surface fire intensity and crown fire initiation were 

strongly related to the weather components and weakly related to the fuel components, due to much greater 

variability in weather than fuel, and stronger relationship to the fire behavior mechanisms for weather than for 

fuel. Fire intensity was correlated to annual area burned; large area burned years had higher fire intensity 

predictions than smaller area burned years. The reason for this difference was attributed directly to the weather 

variable frequency distribution, which was shifted towards more extreme values in years in which large areas 

burned. During extreme weather conditions, the relative importance of fuels diminishes since all stands achieve 

the threshold required to permit crown fire development. This is important since most of the area burned in 

subalpine forests has historically occurred during very extreme weather (i.e., drought coupled to high winds). 

The fire behavior relationships predicted in the models support the concept that forest fire behavior is 

determined primarily by weather variation among years rather than fuel variation associated with stand age. 


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Volume 76 

Issue 3 

Pages 747-762 



DOI 10.2307/1939341 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: Abies lasiocarpa; crown fire initiation; fire behavior; fire ecology; fire weather; fuel accumulation; 

Picea engelmannii; Pinus contorta var. latifolia; Populus tremuloides; Rothermel's fire behavior model; surface 

fire intensity; Van Wagner's crown fire model. 



The report of the ecological society of America committee on the scientific basis for ecosystem 

management 



Author Ann M. Bartuska 

Author James H. Brown 

Author Stephen Carpenter 

Author Carla D'Antonio 

Author Rober Francis 


Author James A. MacMahon 

Author Reed F. Noss 

Author David J. Parsons 

Author Charles H. Peterson 


Author Robert G. Woodmansee 

Abstract Ecosystem management is management driven by explicit goals, executed by policies, protocols, and practices, 

and made adaptable by monitoring and research based on our best understanding of the ecological interactions 

and processes necessary to sustain ecosystem composition, structure, and function. In recent years, 

sustainability has become an explicitly stated, even legislatively mandated, goal of natural resource management 

agencies. In practice, however, management approaches have often focused on maximizing short-term yield and 

economic gain rather than long-term sustainability. Several obstacles contribute to this disparity, including: (1) 

inadequate information on the biological diversity of environments; (2) widespread ignorance of the function 

and dynamics of ecosystems; (3) the openness and interconnectedness of ecosystems on scales that transcend 

management boundaries; (4) a prevailing public perception that the immediate economic and social value of 

supposedly renewable resources outweighs the risk of future ecosystem damage or the benefits of alternative 

management approaches. The goal of ecosystem management is to overcome these obstacles. Ecosystem 

management includes the following elements: (1) Sustainability. Ecosystem management does not focus 

primarily on deliverables" but rather regards intergenerational sustainability as a precondition. (2) Goals. 

Ecosystem management establishes measurable goals that specify future processes and outcomes necessary for 

sustainability. (3) Sound ecological models and understanding. Ecosystem management relies on research 

performed at all levels of ecological organization. (4) Complexity and connectedness. Ecosystem management 

recognizes that biological diversity and structural complexity strengthen ecosystems against disturbance and 

supply the genetic resources necessary to adapt to long-term change. (5) The dynamic character of ecosystems. 

Recognizing that change and evolution are inherent in ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem management avoids 

attempts to freeze" ecosystems in a particular state or configuration. (6) Context and scale. Ecosystem 

processes operate over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and their behavior at any given location is 

greatly affected by surrounding systems. Thus, there is no single appropriate scale or time frame for 

management. (7) Humans as ecosystem components. Ecosystem management values the active role of humans 

in achieving sustainable management goals. (8) Adaptability and accountability. Ecosystem management 

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acknowledges that current knowledge and paradigms of ecosystem function are provisional, incomplete, and 

subject to change. Management approaches must be viewed as hypotheses to be tested by research and 

monitoring programs. The following are fundamental scientific precepts for ecosystem management. (1) Spatial 

and temporal scale are critical. Ecosystem function includes inputs, outputs, cycling of materials and energy, 

and the interactions of organisms. Boundaries defined for the study or management of one process are often 

inappropriate for the study of others; thus, ecosystem management requires a broad view. (2) Ecosystem 

function depends on its structure, diversity, and integrity. Ecosystem management seeks to maintain biological 

diversity as a critical component in strengthening ecosystems against disturbance. Thus, management of 

biological diversity requires a broad perspective and recognition that the complexity and function of any 

particular location is influenced heavily by the surrounding system. (3) Ecosystems are dynamic in space and 

time. Ecosystem management is challenging in part because ecosystems are constantly changing. Over time 

scales of decades or centuries, many landscapes are altered by natural disturbances that lead to mosaics of 

successional patches of different ages. Such patch dynamics are critical to ecosystem structure and function. (4) 

Uncertainty, surprise, and limits to knowledge. Ecosystem management acknowledges that, given sufficient time 

and space, unlikely events are certain to occur. Adaptive management addresses this uncertainty by combining 

democratic principles, scientific analysis, education, and institutional learning to increase our understanding of 

ecosystem processes and the consequences of management interventions, and to improve the quality of data 

upon which decisions must be made. Ecosystem management requires application of ecological science to 

natural resource actions. Moving from concepts to practice is a daunting challenge and will require the following 

steps and actions. (1) Defining sustainable goals and objectives. Sustainable strategies for the provision of 

ecosystem goods and services cannot take as their starting points statements of need or want such as mandated 

timber supply, water demand, or arbitrarily set harvests of shrimp or fish. Rather, sustainability must be the 

primary objective, and levels of commodity and amenity provision must be adjusted to meet that goal. (2) 

Reconciling spatial scales. Implementation of ecosystem management would be greatly simplified if 

management jurisdictions were spatially congruent with the behavior of ecosystem processes. Given the 

variation in spatial domain among processes, one perfect fit for all processes is virtually impossible; rather, 

ecosystem management must seek consensus among the various stakeholders within each ecosystem. (3) 

Reconciling temporal scales. Whereas management agencies are often forced to make decisions on a fiscal-year 

basis, ecosystem management must deal with time scales that transcend human lifetimes. Ecosystem 

management requires long-term planning and commitment. (4) Making the system adaptable and accountable. 

Successful ecosystem management requires institutions that are adaptable to changes in ecosystem 

characteristics and in our knowledge base. Adaptive management by definition requires the scientist's ongoing 

interaction with managers and the public. Communication must flow in both directions, and scientists must be 

willing to prioritize their research with regard to critical management needs. Scientists have much to offer in the 

development of monitoring programs, particularly in creating sampling approaches, statistical analyses, and 

scientific models. As our knowledge base evolves, scientists must develop new mechanisms to communicate 

research and management results. More professionals with an understanding of scientific, management, and 

social issues, and the ability to communicate with scientists, managers, and the public are needed. Ecosystem 

management is not a rejection of an anthropocentric for a totally biocentric worldview. Rather it is management 

that acknowledges the importance of human needs while at the same time confronting the reality that the 

capacity of our world to meet those needs in perpetuity has limits and depends on the functioning of 

ecosystems. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 665-691 



DOI 10.2307/2269460 

ISSN 1051-0761 




The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios 


Author Benjamin M. Sanderson 

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Author Brian C. O’Neill 

Author Jeffrey T. Kiehl 



Author Warren M. Washington 

Abstract Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide 

range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for 

very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are 

significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate 

them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, 

our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete 

loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above 

A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50–100% 

greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing 

a 300–400% increase above A1FI levels. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 034005 (11 p.) 



DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005 

ISSN 1748-9326 


key=crossref.b4bbe968cf1ce6acf7f7df2fb7fa6900 

Extra Keywords: climate; emissions scenarios; impacts. 



The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: Introduction of the Annual 

Greenhouse Gas Index 


Author David J. Hofmann 


Author Edward J. Dlugokencky 

Author James W. Elkins 

Author Kenneth Masarie 


Author Pieter Tans 

Abstract High-precision measurements of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-12, CFC-11 (major greenhouse gases) and 10 minor 

halogenated gases from a globally distributed network of air sampling sites are used to calculate changes in 

radiative climate forcing since the pre-industrial era (1750) for the period of measurement, 1979–2004. The five 

major greenhouse gases account for about 97% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived gases. The fraction 

of the sum of radiative forcings by all long-lived gases that is due to CO₂ has grown from 60% to 63% over this 

time. Though the long-term increase in this sum is due primarily to increased anthropogenic emissions of these 

radiatively important gases, interannual variations in the growth rate of radiative forcing due to CO₂ are large 

and likely related to natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and ENSO events. The annual value of the 

total global radiative forcing of the long-lived gases is used to define an Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). 

The AGGI is normalized to 1990, the Kyoto Protocol baseline year. 

Publication Tellus B 

Volume 58 

Issue 5 

Pages 614-619 

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DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00201.x 

ISSN 0280-6509 




The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US 

and the implications for ecosystem management 



Author Sarah L. Shafer 


Abstract Fire is an important part of the disturbance regimes of northwestern US forests and its role in maintaining and 

altering forest vegetation is evident in the paleoecological record of the region. Long-term reconstructions of 

Holocene fire regimes, provided by the analysis of charcoal, pollen, and other fire proxies in a network of lake 

records, indicate that the Pacific Northwest and summer-dry regions of the northern Rocky Mountains 

experienced their highest fire activity in the early Holocene (11,000–7000 years ago) and during the Medieval 

Warm Period (ca. 1000 years ago) when drought conditions were more severe than today. In contrast, in 

summer-wet areas of the northern Rocky Mountains, the period of highest fire activity was registered in the last 

7000 years when dry woodland vegetation developed. When synthesized across the entire northwestern US, the 

paleoecological record reveals that past and present fire regimes are strongly controlled by climate changes 

occurring on multiple time scales. The scarcity of fires in the 20th century in some northwestern US ecosystems 

may be the result of successful fire suppression policies, but in wetter forests this absence is consistent with 

long-term fire regime patterns. In addition, simulations of potential future climate and vegetation indicate that 

future fire conditions in some parts of the northwestern US could be more severe than they are today. The 

Holocene record of periods of intensified summer drought is used to assess the nature of future fire–climate– 

vegetation linkages in the region. 


Volume 178 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 5-21 



DOI 10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00051-3 

ISSN 0378-1127 


Extra Keywords: fire history; charcoal records; Holocene climate change; future fire conditions; Western US. 



The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability 



Author Wallace B. Woolfenden 

Abstract Significant climate anomalies have characterized the last 1000 yr in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Two 

warm, dry periods of 150- and 200-yr duration occurred during AD 900–1350, which were followed by 

anomalously cold climates, known as the Little Ice Age, that lasted from AD 1400 to 1900. Climate in the last 

century has been significantly warmer. Regional biotic and physical response to these climatic periods occurred. 

Climate variability presents challenges when interpreting historical variability, including the need to 

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accommodate climate effects when comparing current ecosystems to historical conditions, especially if 

comparisons are done to evaluate causes (e.g., human impacts) of differences, or to develop models for 

restoration of current ecosystems. Many historical studies focus on ‘‘presettlement’’ periods, which usually fall 

within the Little Ice Age. Thus, it should be assumed that ecosystems inferred for these historical periods 

responded to different climates than those at present, and management implications should be adjusted 

accordingly. The warmer centuries before the Little Ice Age may be a more appropriate analogue to the present, 

although no historic period is likely to be better as a model than an understanding of what conditions would be 

at present without intervention. Understanding the climate context of historical reconstruction studies, and 

adjusting implications to the present, should strengthen the value of historical variability research to 

management. 


Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 1207-1216 



DOI 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1207:TROCCI]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1051-0761 


/1051-0761%281999%29009%5B1207%3ATROCCI%5D2.0.CO%3B2? 

journalCode=ecap 

Extra Keywords: climate change; forest management; historical variation, use in ecosystem management; natural 

variability; paleoecology. 



The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global 

Vegetation Model 



Author Sergey Venevsky 



Abstract 1. Disturbances from fire, wind-throw, insects and other herbivores are, besides climate, CO₂, and soils, critical 

factors for composition, structure and dynamics of most vegetation. To simulate the influence of fire on the 

dynamic equilibrium, as well as on potential change, of vegetation at the global scale, we have developed a fire 

model, running inside the modular framework of the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model 

(LPJ-DGVM). 2. Estimated litter moisture is the main driver of day-to-day fire probability. The length of the fire 

season is used to estimate the fractional area of a grid cell which is burnt in a given year. This affected area is 

converted into an average fire return interval which can be compared to observations. 3. When driven by 

observed climate for the 20th century (at a 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution), the model yielded fire return 

intervals in good agreement with observations for many regions (except parts of semiarid Africa and boreal 

Siberia). We suggest that further improvement for these regions must involve additional process descriptions 

such as permafrost and fuel/fire dynamics. 


Volume 10 

Issue 6 

Pages 661–677 



DOI 10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.00175.x 

ISSN 1466-822X 

Short Title The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics 


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Extra Keywords: disturbance; dynamic global vegetation model; fire model; fire return intervals; fire season; plant 

functional types; vegetation dynamics. 



The role of fire during climate change in an eastern deciduous forest at Devil's Bathtub, New York 



Author P. Daniel Royall 

Author Craig Chumbley 

Abstract Annual records of charcoal and sedimentation rate were compared with fossil pollen to investigate the role of 

fire in eastern deciduous forest around Devil's Bathtub, New York, USA. Changes in peak and background 

charcoal suggest that changes in fire regime have accompanied the principal vegetation and climatic changes of 

the last 10 400 yr. A distribution of return times (50—200—yr intervals) similar to parts of modern boreal 

Canada prevailed when late—Glacial spruce woodland dominated the site. Expansion of Pinus banksiana 

appears to have altered the fire regime to one of crown fires with high particulate emissions, but return intervals 

similar to those of the preceding Picea forest. Expansion of Pinus strobus might be linked to change in fire 

occurrence, but the broad dispersal of Pinus pollen makes interpretation difficult. If Pinus strobus expansion 

around the site is reflected in its pollen curve, then that expansion coincides with a time of frequent fire. 

Alternatively, if increasing pollen abundance precedes the local expansion of trees, as has been observed 

elsewhere, then local expansion might correspond to an abrupt decline in fire frequency and in regional 

importance of fire. An abrupt decline in background charcoal follows a fire and coincides (±100 yr) with the 

expansion of hardwood taxa such as Fagus. The decline in background charcoal occurs over several years, 

suggesting that it may be linked to effects of hardwood expansion on fuels. Fires do not appear to have occurred 

during the time of hardwood dominance, suggesting that fire may not be an explanation for maintenance of 

species diversity in this deciduous forest. However, frequent occurrence of thick varves during the latter half of 

the Holocene suggests that the frequency of other types of disturbance may have increased. 


Volume 77 

Issue 7 

Pages 2148–2166 



DOI 10.2307/2265709 

ISSN 0012-9658 


Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; climate change; eastern deciduous forest; fire history; forest dynamics; pollen 

analysis; western New York state. 



The role of fire in altering the species composition of forests in Rhode Island 


Author James H. Brown Jr. 



Volume 41 

Issue 2 

Pages 310–316 



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DOI 10.2307/1930221 

ISSN 0012-9658 





The role of fire in southern Scandinavian forests during the late Holocene 



Author Matts Lindbladh 

Author Gina E. Hannon 

Abstract Charcoal fragments preserved in small, wet basins are used to characterise the fire regime of temperate and 

mixed boreal forest (hemiboreal) zones of southern Scandinavia during the last 3500 years. There was far less 

charcoal recorded from the temperate zone than the hemiboreal zone during the last 3500 years, yet the low 

temperate zone values showed a clear trend of continuous increase until 1500 AD, after which the values 

decreased sharply. The record from the hemiboreal region showed a greater temporal variability with far higher 

charcoal influx values than in the temperate zone. There were significant positive correlations between charcoal 

influx and Betula, Calluna and Pinus pollen abundance and negative correlations with pollen indicators of 

anthropogenic impact such as Rumex and Cerealia. Charcoal influx in the temperate zone showed a strong 

association with the period of major anthropogenic impact, whereas the hemiboreal data reacted more to 

climatic change. The temporal and spatial pattern of charcoal influx was only a minor explanatory factor for 

vegetation composition at a regional scale in southern Scandinavia. The fire return interval was often long and 

irregular in most of the region and anthropogenic factors such as grazing, mowing and establishment of arable 

fields were probably more important than fire as drivers of vegetation change. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1040–1049 



DOI 10.1071/WF09108 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF09108 

Extra Keywords: charcoal analysis; fire history; hemiboreal forest zone; palaeoecology; temperate forest zone. 

Date Added Friday, August 26, 2011 9:42:30 PM 


The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves 



Author Pier Luigi Vidale 

Author Daniel Lüthi 

Author Christoph Frei 

Author Christian Häberli 

Author Mark A. Liniger 

Author Christof Appenzeller 

Abstract Instrumental observations and reconstructions of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a 

pronounced warming during the past ~150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the 

occurrence of heatwaves. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution 

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towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small. Here 

we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 

2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 

2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that 

a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be 

able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a 

regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that 

temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe. 


Volume 427 

Issue 6972 

Pages 332-336 



DOI 10.1038/nature02300 

ISSN 0028-0836 




The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change 


Author Rachel Warren 

Abstract The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a 

global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector 

or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts 

in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often 

poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are 

generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and 

also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased 

drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas 

remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, 

with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments 

considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By 

contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with 

concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the 

Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to 

increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the 

availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to 

mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land 

and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world. 


Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 217-241 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0271 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: climate change; integrated assessment modelling; adaptation; extreme weather events; ecosystem 

services; biodiversity. 



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The Santa Ana winds of California 


Author Marilyn N. Raphael 

Abstract A 33-yr, numerical dataset of the occurrence of Santa Ana winds for the period 1968–2000 has been created 

and validated. Daily Weather Maps were examined to identify the days when a surface high pressure system 

existed over the Great Basin simultaneously with a surface low pressure system offshore of southern California, 

and the prevailing wind over southern California was from the northeast quadrant. The dates of these 

occurrences, as well as the wind speed, temperature, and dewpoint temperature among other variables, were 

extracted and tabulated. The frequency of Santa Ana events derived from the weather maps was compared to 

events defined by wind direction only and there is agreement between the two. Preliminary results show that the 

Santa Ana event is limited to the period September–April and that the month of peak occurrence is December. 

The average frequency of events is 20 yr⁻¹ and the average duration of an event is 1.5 days. Humidity levels are 

not uniform across Santa Ana events; the driest months are the months with the highest frequency of events. 

The frequency of Santa Ana events is usually lower than average during El Niño events. These preliminary 

results indicate that the dataset is useful for in depth study of the local phenomenon and its effect on the region 

within the context of the large-scale circulation. 


Volume 7 

Issue 8 

Pages 1-13 



DOI 10.1175/1087-3562(2003)0072.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1087-3562 


/1087-3562%282003%29007%3C0001%3ATSAWOC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 

Extra Keywords: Santa Ana winds. 



The seminal importance of fire in ecosystem management-impetus for this publication 





Proceedings Title The Use of Fire in Forest Restoration 

Conference Name 1995 Annual Meeting of the Society for Ecological Restoration 

Place University of Washington, Seattle, September 14-16, 1995. 

Publisher U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station: Ogden, UT 

Pages 3–5 

Series General Technical Report INT-341 


Extra Keywords: fire ecology; fire regimes; forest restoration; disturbance; prescribed fire. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Arno, S.F. 1996. The seminal importance of fire in ecosystem management -- impetus for this publication. In: Hardy, Colin C.; Arno, 

Stephen F., eds. The use of fire in forest restoration. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-341. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

570 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. p. 3-5. 

In: Hardy, Colin C.; Arno, Stephen F., eds. 1996. The use of fire in forest restoration. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-341. Ogden, UT: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. ----- The 26 papers in this document address the current 

knowledge of fire as a disturbance agent, fire history and fire regimes, applications of prescribed fire for ecological restoration, and the 

effects of fire on the various forested ecosystems of the north-western United States. The main body of this document is organized in 

three sections: Assessing Needs for Fire in Restoration; Restoration of Fire in Inland Forests; and Restoration in Pacific Westside 

Forests. 

Related 

Fire regimes and approaches for determining fire history 

The sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-Index to their calibration 

coefficients including potential evapotranspiration 



Abstract The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is routinely made available by NOAA for operational use, and it has 

also been calculated across the United States on a historical basis back to 1895 (Karl et al., 1983). Traditionally, 

the coefficients used in the calculation of the PDSI have been based on an anomalously hot and dry period 

across much of the United States (1931–60). By changing the base period used to calibrate the coefficients, the 

magnitude and the sign of the PDSI change significantly in many areas of the United States. Often the changes 

are larger than those that occur when the potential evapotranspiration is forced to a constant equal to the 

long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration. This sensitivity to base period calibration has important 

implications in the interpretation of operational or hindcast values of the PDSI for forest fire danger and other 

applications. The less frequently used Palmer moisture anomaly index (Z-index) is much less sensitive to 

changes in the calibration periods, and also has some desirable characteristics which may make it preferable to 

the PDSI for some agricultural and forest fire applications, i.e., it is more responsive to short-term moisture 

anomalies. 

Publication Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 

Volume 25 

Issue 1 

Pages 77-86 


Journal Abbr J. Climate Appl. Meteor. 

DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(1986)0252.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0733-3021 


/1520-0450%281986%29025%3C0077%3ATSOTPD%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



The shapes of adaptation: Historical ecology of anthropogenic landscapes in the southeastern United 

States 


Author Julia E. Hammett 

Abstract Native inhabitants of the Southeastern United States traditionally practiced land management strategies, 

including burning and clearing, that created ‘anthropogenic landscapes’. From the viewpoint of landscape 

ecology, analysis of historic documents including drawings and deerskin maps from the sixteenth, seventeenth 

and eighteenth centuries depicted the Native Southeastern landscape as a series of circular patches surrounded 

by buffer areas. This character contrasted sharply with early European coastal settlements which were more 

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typically rectangular in shape. Differences between Native American and European land use patterns and 

implied perceptions of the landscape reflect distinct differences in their respective cultural models and 

intentionality. 


Volume 7 

Issue 2 

Pages 121-135 



DOI 10.1007/BF02418943 

ISSN 0921-2973 

Short Title The shapes of adaptation 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/l32mw455r432157u/ 

Extra Keywords: historical ecology; Native North Americans; anthropogenic landscapes; corridors; patches. 



The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future 


Author Michael Lockwood 

Author R. Giles Harrison 

Author Matt J. Owens 

Author Luke Barnard 

Author Tim Woollings 

Author Friedhelm Steinhilber 

Abstract Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low 

(Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has 

fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and 

records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 

L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the 

current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to 

decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, 

we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, 

relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into 

account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill 

may be obtained by including the solar effect. 


Volume 6 

Issue 3 

Pages 034004 (11 p.) 



DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034004 

ISSN 1748-9326 

URL http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/3/034004/fulltext 

Extra Keywords: regional climate; solar variability; blocking. 



The Sun's role in climate variations 

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Abstract Is the Sun the controller of climate changes, only the instigator of changes that are mostly forced by the system 

feedbacks, or simply a convenient scapegoat for climate variations lacking any other obvious cause? This 

question is addressed for suggested solar forcing mechanisms operating on time scales from billions of years to 

decades. Each mechanism fails to generate the expected climate response in important respects, although some 

relations are found. The magnitude of the system feedbacks or variability appears as large or larger than that of 

the solar forcing, making the Sun's true role ambiguous. As the Sun provides an explicit external forcing, a better 

understanding of its cause and effect in climate change could help us evaluate the importance of other climate 

forcings (such as past and future greenhouse gas changes). 


Volume 296 

Issue 5568 

Pages 673-677 



DOI 10.1126/science.1069562 

ISSN 0036-8075 




The theory and use of two fire history models 



Author Charles E. Van Wagner 

Abstract The objective of this paper is to explain the distributions, assumptions, interpretations, and relationships of the 

two compatible, stochastic models of fire history: the negative exponential and the Weibull. For each model the 

"fire interval" and "time-sinee-fire" distributions are given. Both models apply to homogenous stationary 

stochastic processes. The negative exponential states that the instantaneous fire hazard rate is constant for all 

stand ages. The Weibull states that the instantaneous fire hazard rate increases with stand age when the shape 

parameter is >1 (the negative exponential is a special ease of the Weibull when shape=1). An empirical method 

is given for separating from an observed fire history distribution, the pre- and post-fire suppression distributions. 

Four relationships are derived from the models and defined per study region (per stand): (i) the fire cycle 

(average fire interval), (ii) the annual percent burned area (fire frequency), (iii) the average age of the 

vegetation (average prospective life-time), and (iv) the renewal rate. 


Volume 15 

Issue 1 

Pages 214-220 



DOI 10.1139/x85-039 

ISSN 0045-5067 




The twentieth century reanalysis project 


Author Gilbert P. Compo 

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Author Jeffrey S. Whitaker 

Author Prashant D. Sardeshmukh 

Author Nobuki Matsui 

Author Robert J. Allan 

Author Xungang Yin 

Author Byron E. Gleason 

Author Russell S. Vose 

Author Glenn Rutledge 

Author Pierre Bessemoulin 

Author Stefan Brönnimann 


Author Richard I. Crouthamel 

Author Andrea N. Grant 

Author Pavel Y. Groisman 

Author Philip D. Jones 

Author Michael C. Kruk 

Author Andries C. Kruger 

Author Gareth J. Marshall 

Author Maurizio Maugeri 

Author Hing Y. Mok 

Author Øyvind Nordli 

Author Thomas F. Ross 


Author Xiaolan L. Wang 

Author Scott D. Woodruff 

Author Steven J. Worley 

Abstract The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global 

atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and 

using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly 

motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate 

model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It 

uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an 

ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis 

every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 

20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying 

quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with 

independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the 

extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational 

NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other 

reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 

20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and 

diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices 

representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North 

American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally 

averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the 

twentieth century. 


Volume 137 

Issue 654 

Pages 1-28 

Date January 2011 Part A 


DOI 10.1002/qj.776 

ISSN 0035-9009 

URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.776 

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Extra Keywords: data assimilation; Ensemble Kalman Filter; state estimation; surface pressure; sea-level pressure. 



The United States forest policy 

Type Book 

Author John Ise 



Place New Haven, CT 

Publisher Yale University Press 

Date 1920 


ISBN 0405045115 

URL http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/handle/1957/9959? 

show=full 

Loc. in Archive Oregon State University 



The untold story of pyrocumulonimbus 


Author Michael Fromm 

Author Daniel T. Lindsey 

Author René Servranckx 

Author Glenn Yue 

Author Thomas Trickl 

Author Robert Sica 

Author Paul Doucet 

Author Sophie Godin-Beekmann 

Abstract When fires initiate or intensify towering thunderstorms, they can inject aerosols into the lower stratosphere that 

were once thought to originate only from volcanic plumes. 


Volume 91 

Issue 9 

Pages 1193-1209 



DOI 10.1175/2010BAMS3004.1 

ISSN 1520-0477 




The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera 


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Author Gregory T. Pederson 

Author Stephen T. Gray 



Author Daniel B. Fagre 


Author Emma Watson 

Author Brian H. Luckman 

Author Lisa J. Graumlich 

Abstract In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through 

the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 

tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. 

Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across 

the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack 

declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement 

of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack 

variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western 



Volume 333 

Issue 6040 

Pages 332-335 



DOI 10.1126/science.1201570 

ISSN 1095-9203 




The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections 


Author Claudia Tebaldi 


Abstract Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, 

have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model 

ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they 

have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This 

paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles, reviews the methodologies published so far and 

compares their results for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting multi-model results, 

caused by the lack of verification of climate projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as 

well as the difficulty in making sense of an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, are discussed in detail. 


Volume 365 

Issue 1857 

Pages 2053-2075 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: regional climate change; probabilistic projections; multi-model ensembles; global climate models; 

structural uncertainty; performance-based weighting 

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The value of weather forecasts in the problem of protecting forests from fire 


Author Edward A. Beals 



Volume 42 

Issue 2 

Pages 111-119 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1914)422.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281914%2942%3C111%3ATVOWFI%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



The vegetational history of the Middle West 


Author Henry Allan Gleason 

Abstract This Article does not have an abstract. 

Publication Annals of the Association of American Geographers 

Volume 12 

Issue 1 

Pages 39–85 

Date 1922 

Journal Abbr Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 

DOI 10.1080/00045602209356938 

ISSN 1467-8306 (online), 0004-5608 (paper) 




The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research 



Author Curt Covey 

Author Thomas Delworth 


Author Bryant McAvaney 

Author John F. B. Mitchell 


Author Karl E. Taylor 

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Abstract A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] 

experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and 

other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment 

was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups 

from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the 

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group 

on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model 

Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents 

the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel 

analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and 

Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight 

from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic 

applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. 

Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the 

IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. 

Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international 

climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model 

analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model 

output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing 

studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently 

works, and how it may change in the future. 


Volume 88 

Issue 9 

Pages 1383–1394 



DOI 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383 

ISSN 0003-0007 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383 



Three kinds of heterogeneity in fire regimes: At the crossroads of fire history and landscape ecology 


Author Ken Lertzman 

Author Joseph Fall 

Author Brigitte Dorner 

Abstract Understanding the large-scale dynamics of fire in forest ecosystems is hampered by the substantial heterogeneity 

that fire regimes display over multiple scales of space and time. In this paper we discuss temporal and spatial 

heterogeneity in fire regimes along with heterogeneity internal to individual fires. We examine how these 

sources of variability challenge our ability to make inferences from the kind of data typically available in 

empirical studies. We built a simple, spatially explicit, stochastic simulation, based on a Poisson model of fire 

occurrence, and used it to create a series of scenarios that differ in their assumptions about variability in fire 

interval, size, and shape. Our purpose was to produce data sets similar to those collected in the f ield. However, 

we are able to assess the effectiveness of standard methods for analyzing such data because we have perfect 

knowledge of the dynamics and variables driving the fire regimes. Our analyses demonstrate that the 

reconstructed parameters of a fire regime can exhibit substantial variability, even in the absence of an 

underlying ecological or physical pattern. Consequently, we recommend caution in attributing causality to 

apparent temporal or spatial differences in fire regime parameters that are not motivated by independently 

generated hypotheses. Furthermore, modest temporal variability in fire frequency can induce significant 

fluctuations in forest age structure over time, calling in to question inferences that assume a steady-state age 

distribution. Our discussion highlights the irnportance of heterogeneity in forest landscapes, the need to 

understand the lirnits of our analytical methods, and the challenges of incorporating these ideas into 

management. 


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Volume 72 


Pages 4–23 

Date 1998 


ISSN 0029-344X 

Short Title Three kinds of heterogeneity in fire regimes 

URL http://www.vetmed.wsu.edu/org_nws/NWSci%20journal%20articles/1998%20files/1998%20Vol%2072.htm 



Tongue-Tied: Confused meanings for common fire terminology can lead to fuels mismanagement. A new 

framework is needed to clarify and communicate the concepts. 


Author Theresa B. Jain 

Author Russell T. Graham 


Publication WILDFIRE magazine 

Issue July/August 


Pages 22-26 

URL http://wildfiremag.com/command/tonguetied/ 



Topographic solar radiation models for GIS 


Author Ralph Dubayah 

Author M. Paul Rich 

Abstract Incident solar radiation at the Earth's surface is the result of a complex interaction of energy between the 

atmosphere and the surface. Recently much progress has been made towards the creation of accurate, 

physically-based solar radiation formulations that can model this interaction over topographic and other surfaces 

(such as plant canopies) for a large range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper we summarize our current 

work on solar radiation models and their implementation within both GIS and image processing systems. An 

overview of the effects of topography and plant canopies on solar radiation is presented along with a discussion 

of various options for obtaining the data necessary to drive specific solar radiation models. Examples are given 

from our own work using two models, ATM (Atmospheric and Topographic Model), a model based within an 

image processing framework, and SOLARFLUX, a GIS-based model. We consider issues of design, including 

GIS implementation and interface, computational problems, and error propagation. 

Publication International Journal of Geographical Information Science 

Volume 9 

Issue 4 

Pages 405-419 


Journal Abbr Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 

DOI 10.1080/02693799508902046 

ISSN 1365-8816 

URL http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02693799508902046 


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Transient middle Eocene atmospheric CO₂ and temperature variations 


Author Peter K. Bijl 

Author Alexander J. P. Houben 

Author Stefan Schouten 

Author Steven M. Bohaty 

Author Appy Sluijs 

Author Gert-Jan Reichart 

Author Jaap S. Sinninghe Damste 

Author Henk Brinkhuis 

Abstract The long-term warmth of the Eocene (~56 to 34 million years ago) is commonly associated with elevated partial 

pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (ρCO₂). However, a direct relationship between the two has not been 

established for short-term climate perturbations. We reconstructed changes in both ρCO₂ and temperature over 

an episode of transient global warming called the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40 million years 

ago). Organic molecular paleothermometry indicates a warming of southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures 

(SSTs) by 3° to 6°C. Reconstructions of ρCO₂ indicate a concomitant increase by a factor of 2 to 3. The marked 

consistency between SST and ρCO₂ trends during the MECO suggests that elevated ρCO₂ played a major role in 

global warming during the MECO. 


Volume 330 

Issue 6005 

Pages 819-821 



DOI 10.1126/science.1193654 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Tree-ring analysis of fire history of a post oak savanna in the Missouri Ozarks 



Author Bruce E. Cutter 

Abstract Fire scars from 43 trees were dated by dendrochronological methods to reconstruct the extent and frequency of 

fire in an area of post oak savannas in southern Missouri. Post oak (Quercus stellata Wang.), shortleaf pine 

(Pinus echinata Mill.), and eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) trees from the Caney Mountain Wildlife 

Refuge were used to construct two fire-scar chronologies. Fire frequency and extent was found to be greatest 

between 1700 and 1810 on post oak savannas. The mean fire-free interval during the pre-1810 period was 4.3 

years for an area of post oak savanna of approximately 2.5 km². Evidence for several fires at least 6 km² in 

extent was found from trees scarred in the years 1785, 1796, and 1806. 


Volume 11 

Issue 2 

Pages 93–99 

Date 1991 


ISSN 0885-8608 

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Tree-ring reconstructions of fire and climate history in the Sierra Nevada and Southwestern United 

States (Chapter 6) 







Volume 160 




Date 2003 

Pages 158-195 

ISBN 978-0-387-95455-4 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/p430866050633485/ 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Swetnam, T. W. and C. H. Baisan. 2003. Tree-ring reconstructions of fire and climate history in the Sierra Nevada and Southwestern 

United States. Pages 158-195 in T. T. Veblen, W. L. Baker, G. Montenegro, and T. W. Swetnam, editors. Fire and climatic change in 

temperate ecosystems of the western Americas. Ecological Studies 160. Springer-Verlag, New York. 

Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 

Type Web Page 

Author NOAA US Department of Commerce 

Website Title Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division 

Website Type data 

Date 2010 

URL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ 

Rights NOAA 

Extra The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory was formed to observe and understand the Earth system and to 

develop products, through a commitment to research that will advance the National Oceanic and Atmopsheric 

Administration's environmental information and services on global to local scales. 



Trends in midlatitude cyclone frequency and occurrence during fire season in the Northern Rockies: 

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1900–2004 




Abstract We examined changes in the timing and frequency of major midlatitude cyclones (MLCs) during August 

through October for eight climate stations in the Northern Rockies from 1900–2004. As MLCs can effectively 

diminish fire activity through both cooler temperatures and higher humidity/precipitation, we also determined if 

area burned by wildfires from 1940–2004 was correlated with the timing and frequency of these events. Our 

results indicate that: (1) significant long-term trends in MLCs exist, as the timing of the first MLC has occurred 

later in the year during the past century, with a marked upward shift post-mid-1980s; (2) MLC frequency has 

significantly declined since 1900, with a pronounced decrease also beginning in the mid-1980s; (3) the 

relationships between the timing of the first MLC and frequency of MLCs with forest area burned are 

significant; and (4) mid-tropospheric ridging upstream from the Northern Rockies that blocks MLCs has become 

more pronounced. 


Volume 34 

Issue 20 

Pages L20707 (5 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2007GL031216 

ISSN 0094-8276 

Short Title Trends in midlatitude cyclone frequency and occurrence during fire season in the Northern Rockies 


Extra Keywords: midlatitude cyclones; forest wildfires; Northern Rockies; United States. 



Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide 


Author Corinne Le Quéré 

Author Michael R. Raupach 



Author Laurent Bopp 


Author Thomas J. Conway 

Author Scott C. Doney 

Author Richard A. Feely 

Author Pru Foster 


Author Kevin Gurney 

Author Richard A. Houghton 

Author Johanna I. House 


Author Peter E. Levy 

Author Mark R. Lomas 

Author Joseph Majkut 

Author Nicolas Metzl 

Author Jean P. Ometto 

Author Glen P. Peters 

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Author Jorge L. Sarmiento 

Author Ute Schuster 


Author Taro Takahashi 

Author Nicolas Viovy 



Abstract Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This can only be 

achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO₂ emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29% 

between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the 

production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, 

emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43% of each year's CO₂ 

emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the 

oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO₂ emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely 

increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake 

of CO₂ by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO₂ sinks are highly 

uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO₂ levels. It is therefore crucial to 

reduce the uncertainties. 


Volume 2 

Issue 12 

Pages 831-836 



DOI 10.1038/ngeo689 

ISSN 1752-0894 

URL http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html 



Trends Online: A compendium of data on global change 

Type Web Page 

Author CDIAC 

Abstract Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 2003. Trends Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. 

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. This document provides 

synopses of frequently used time series of global-change data: • historical and modern records (from ice cores 

and current monitoring stations) of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) • atmospheric 

concentrations of methane • isotopic measurements (¹⁴C et al.) for atmospheric greenhouse gases • estimates of 

global, regional, and national CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, gas flaring, and the production 

of cement • global emissions estimates for methane (CH₄) • carbon flux from land-cover change • long-term 

temperature records, whose spatial coverage ranges from individual sites to the entire globe and from the Earth's 

surface to the lower stratosphere • total cloud amount over China • ecosystems (area and carbon content) Data 

records are presented in multipage formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The 

data records include tables; graphs; discussions of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; 

trends in the data, and references to literature providing further information. Instructions for citing specific data 

in Trends Online are provided for each compiled data set. All data appearing in Trends Online are available, on 

request, on digital media from CDIAC at no cost. 

Website Title Trends Online Contents 

Website Type data provide 

Date 2003 

583 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM


URL http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm 

Extra Keywords: atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric measurements; carbon cycle; carbon dioxide; carbon isotopes; 

climate; climate change; climatology; clouds; Earth atmosphere; emissions; fossil fuels; gas flaring; global 

warming; greenhouse effect; meteorology; methane; natural gas; radiosondes; paleoclimatology; regional 

analysis; temperature monitoring; trace gases. 



Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present 


Author James Zachos 

Author Mark Pagani 

Author Lisa Sloan 

Author Ellen Thomas 

Author Katharina Billups 

Abstract Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer 

details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution 

includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 10⁵ to 10⁷ years, 

rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 10⁴- to 10⁶-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant 

shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 10³ to 10⁵ years. Here, recent progress in defining the 

evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and 

anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of 

deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of 

previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate. 


Volume 292 

Issue 5517 

Pages 686-693 



DOI 10.1126/science.1059412 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch 


Author Alexey V. Fedorov 

Author Christopher M. Brierley 

Author Kerry Emanuel 

Abstract Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of 

the Earth’s climate system. In particular, by vigorously mixing the upper ocean, they can affect the ocean’s heat 

uptake, poleward heat transport, and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of 

tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A 

potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions, the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 

to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback 

between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential 

for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of 

hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the 

eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean’s wind-driven circulation. In the present climate, very few 

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hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently, there is little heat exchange between waters at 

such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater 

heating of the parcels, warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer tropics and, in turn, even 

more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model, we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone 

distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model 

support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to 

contemporary climate change. 


Volume 463 

Issue 7284 

Pages 1066-1070 



DOI 10.1038/nature08831 

ISSN 0028-0836 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08831 



Tropical Pacific – mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times 


Author Nicholas E. Graham 


Author Caspar M. Ammann 

Author Kim M. Cobb 

Author Martin P. Hoerling 

Author Douglas J. Kennett 

Author James P. Kennett 

Author Bert Rein 

Author Lowell Stott 

Author Peter E. Wigand 

Author Taiyi Xu 

Abstract Terrestrial and marine late Holocene proxy records from the western and central US suggest that climate 

between approximately 500 and 1350 a.d. was marked by generally arid conditions with episodes of severe 

centennial-scale drought, elevated incidence of wild fire, cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the 

California coast, and dune mobilization in the western plains. This Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was 

followed by wetter conditions and warming coastal SSTs during the transition into the “Little Ice Age” (LIA). 

Proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean show contemporaneous changes indicating cool central and 

eastern tropical Pacific SSTs during the MCA, with warmer than modern temperatures in the western equatorial 

Pacific. This pattern of mid-latitude and tropical climate conditions is consistent with the hypothesis that the dry 

MCA in the western US resulted (at least in part) from tropically forced changes in winter NH circulation 

patterns like those associated with modern La Niña episodes. We examine this hypothesis, and present other 

analyses showing that the imprint of MCA climate change appears in proxy records from widely distributed 

regions around the planet, and in many cases is consistent with a cool medieval tropical Pacific. One example, 

explored with numerical model results, is the suggestion of increased westerlies and warmer winter temperatures 

over northern Europe during medieval times. An analog technique for the combined use of proxy records and 

model results, Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction (PSR), is introduced. 


Volume 83 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 241-285 



DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9239-2 

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ISSN 0165-0009 




Tropospheric temperature trends: History of an ongoing controversy 


Author Peter W. Thorne 

Author John R. Lanzante 

Author Thomas C. Peterson 

Author Dian J. Seidel 

Author Keith P. Shine 

Abstract Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models 

consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the 

surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the 

tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for 

observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis 

of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the 

evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. 

Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from 

both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value 

of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased 

computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of 

temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is 

concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric 

temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively. 


Volume 2 

Issue 1 

Pages 66-88 



DOI 10.1002/wcc.80 

ISSN 1757-7780 




Tundra burning in Alaska: Linkages to climatic change and sea ice retreat 




Author John E. Walsh 

Author William L. Chapman 



Author Melissa L. Chipman 

Abstract Recent climatic warming has resulted in pronounced environmental changes in the Arctic, including shrub cover 

expansion and sea ice shrinkage. These changes foreshadow more dramatic impacts that will occur if the 

warming trend continues. Among the major challenges in anticipating these impacts are “surprises” stemming 

from changes in system components that have remained relatively stable in the historic record. Tundra burning 

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is potentially one such component. Here we report paleoecological evidence showing that recent tundra burning 

is unprecedented in the central Alaskan Arctic within the last 5000 years. Analysis of lake sediment cores 

reveals peak values of charcoal accumulation corresponding to the Anaktuvuk River Fire in 2007, with no 

evidence of other fire events throughout the past five millennia in that area. Atmospheric reanalysis suggests 

that the fire was favored by exceptionally warm and dry weather conditions in summer and early autumn. 

Boosted regression tree modeling shows that such conditions also explain 95% of the interannual variability in 

tundra area burned throughout Alaska over the past 60 years and that the response of tundra burning to climatic 

warming is nonlinear. These results contribute to an emerging body of evidence suggesting that tundra 

ecosystems can burn more frequently under suitable climatic and fuel conditions. The Anaktuvuk River Fire 

coincides with extreme sea ice retreat, and tundra area burned in Alaska is moderately correlated with sea ice 

extent from 1979 to 2009 (r = −0.43, p = 0.02). Recurrences of large tundra fires as a result of sea ice 

disappearance may represent a novel manifestation of coupled marine-terrestrial responses to climatic warming. 


Volume 115 

Issue G4 

Pages G04002 (8 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2009JG001270 

ISSN 0148-0227 

Short Title Tundra burning in Alaska 


Extra Keywords: Arctic; charcoal records; climatic warming; paleoecology; sea ice retreat; tundra fire. 



Turbulent kinetic energy during wildfires in the north central and north-eastern U.S. 


Author Warren E. Heilman 

Author Xindi Bian 

Abstract The suite of operational fire-weather indices available for assessing the atmospheric potential for extreme fire 

behaviour typically does not include indices that account for atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence or wind 

gustiness that can increase the erratic behaviour of fires. As a first step in testing the feasibility of using a 

quantitative measure of turbulence as a stand-alone fire-weather index or as a component of a fire-weather 

index, simulations of the spatial and temporal patterns of turbulent kinetic energy during major recent wildfire 

events in the western Great Lakes and northeastern US regions were performed. Simulation results indicate that 

the larger wildfires in these regions of the US were associated with episodes of significant boundary-layer 

ambient turbulence. Case studies of the largest recent wildfires to occur in these regions indicate that the periods 

of most rapid fire growth were generally coincident with occurrences of the product of the Haines Index and 

near-surface turbulent kinetic energy exceeding a value of 15m² s⁻², a threshold indicative of a highly turbulent 

boundary layer beneath unstable and dry atmospheric layers, which is a condition that can be conducive to 

erratic fire behaviour. 


Volume 19 

Issue 3 

Pages 346–363 

Date May 2010 


DOI 10.1071/WF08076 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF08076 



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U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through Science–Management partnerships 





Author Kathy A. O’Halloran 

Abstract Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land 

managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United 

States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic 

National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation 

options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific 

context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options 

for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which 

adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding 

of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest 

managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large 

spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic 

outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and 

experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase 

landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic 

species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and 

integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match 

engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate 

change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation 

strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount 

of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups 

of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated 

for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated 

into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate 

impacts and management outcomes may take decades. 





DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0066-0 

ISSN 0165-0009 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/yp28647842x040p6/ 



U.S. natural resources and climate change: Concepts and approaches for management adaptation 


Author Jordan M. West 

Author Susan H. Julius 

Author Peter Kareiva 

Author Carolyn Enquist 

Author Joshua J. Lawler 

Author Brian Petersen 

Author Ayana E. Johnson 

Author M. Rebecca Shaw 

Abstract Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives 

that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic 

changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that 

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have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to 

assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management 

practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into 

opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account 

challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has 

mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in 

the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their 

capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than 

simply changing management practices—it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to 

new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience—this time for 

a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will 

require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between “managing for 

resilience” and “managing for change.” 


Volume 44 

Issue 6 

Pages 1001-1021 



DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9345-1 

ISSN 0364-152X 


Extra Keywords: climate change; adaptation; resource management; ecosystems; resilience; uncertainty; triage; 

thresholds. 



Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: A regional analysis of ensemble simulations with 

the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM 


Author Filippo Giorgi 

Author Raquel Francisco 

Abstract We analyze ensembles (four realizations) of historical and future climate transient experiments carried out with 

the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) of the Hadley Centre for Climate 

Prediction and Research, version HADCM2, with four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfate forcing. 

The analysis focuses on the regional scale, and in particular on 21 regions covering all land areas in the World 

(except Antarctica). We examine seasonally averaged surface air temperature and precipitation for the historical 

period of 1961–1990 and the future climate period of 2046–2075. Compared to previous AOGCM simulations, 

the HADCM2 model shows a good performance in reproducing observed regional averages of summer and 

winter temperature and precipitation. The model, however, does not reproduce well observed interannual 

variability. We find that the uncertainty in regional climate change predictions associated with the spread of 

different realizations in an ensemble (i.e. the uncertainty related to the internal model variability) is relatively 

low for all scenarios and regions. In particular, this uncertainty is lower than the uncertainty due to interscenario 

variability and (by comparison with previous regional analyses of AOGCMs) with inter-model 

variability. The climate biases and sensitivities found for different realizations of the same ensemble were similar 

to the corresponding ensemble averages and the averages associated with individual realizations of the same 

ensemble did not differ from each other at the 5% confidence level in the vast majority of cases. These results 

indicate that a relatively small number of realizations (3 or 4) is sufficient to characterize an AOGCM transient 

climate change prediction at the regional scale. 


Volume 16 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 169-182 



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DOI 10.1007/PL00013733 

ISSN 0930-7575 

Short Title Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction 

URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/v25xnvukfpdm8lhd/ 



Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 


Author Philip Brohan 

Author John J. Kennedy 

Author Ian Harris 

Author Simon F. B. Tett 

Author Phil D. Jones 

Abstract The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and 

variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent 

improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from 

improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates 

has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias 

effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the 

mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the 

temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the 

temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty. 


Volume 111 

Issue 12 

Pages D12106 (21 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2005JD006548 

ISSN 0148-0227 


Extra Index Terms: global change; climate variability; regional climate change. 



Uncertainty in estimating carbon emissions from boreal forest fires 


Author Nancy H. F. French 

Author Pierre Goovaerts 


Abstract The uncertainty in carbon emissions from fire was estimated for the boreal region of Alaska over the 50 years of 

recorded wildfire. Building on previous work where carbon emissions were estimated using a geographic 

information systems-based model, the uncertainty attached to the different parameters of the basic equation was 

assessed and propagated through the equation using Monte Carlo simulation. The result is a distribution of 

possible values for total carbon and three carbon-based gases (CO₂, CO, and CH₄) that provides a measure of 

the uncertainty in the output estimates. Additionally, the relative impact of each input parameter on the output 

uncertainty has been quantified (sensitivity analysis). Assumptions were made in building the uncertainty model 

regarding the shape of the distribution of each model parameter since this information is unavailable. Because of 

the lack of information on the precision of input parameter estimates, a range of possible spread values for the 

probability distributions, as defined by the coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation/mean), was 

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considered. Using the “best guess” values for input CVs, the resulting estimate of total annual carbon emission 

can be as high as 10.6 TgC or as low as 1.1 TgC, a CV of 24%. Lowering the input CVs to 5% results in an 

output CV of 4.2% for total carbon emissions. For the three carbon-based gases the CV of simulated carbon 

distributions for the “best guess” scenario ranges from 23 to 27%. The sensitivity analysis reveals that 

ground-layer fraction consumed, βg , is the most important parameter in terms of output uncertainty. The results 

of this work emphasize that current estimates of carbon emission from biomass burning are not well constrained 

because input data sets are incomplete and lack adequate error information. Furthermore, we conclude that 

although burn area estimates are improving, more effort is needed in quantifying fuel and consumption variables 

at fire sites if accurate estimates of carbon emissions from fire are to be made. 


Volume 109 

Issue 14 

Pages D14S08 (12 p.) 

Date May 2004 


DOI 10.1029/2003JD003635 

ISSN 0148-0227 


Extra Keywords: biomass burning; carbon cycling; Monte Carlo simulations. 



Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases 


Author David A. Stainforth 

Author Tolu Aina 

Author Carl Christensen 

Author Mat Collins 

Author Nick Faull 

Author Dave J. Frame 

Author Jamie A. Kettleborough 

Author Sylvia Knight 

Author Andrew Martin 


Author Claudio Piani 

Author David Sexton 

Author Leonard A. Smith 

Author Robert A. Spicer 

Author Alan J. Thorpe 


Abstract The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate 

change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both 

chaotic climate variability and model response uncertaint. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, 

based on observations of recent climate change admit climate sensitivities—defined as the equilibrium response 

of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide—substantially greater than 5 K. 

But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in 

general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multithousand-member 

grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly 

resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with 

climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are 

critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, 

and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels. 


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Volume 433 

Issue 7024 

Pages 403–406 



DOI 10.1038/nature03301 

ISSN 1476-4687 

URL http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v433/n7024/full/nature03301.html 



Uncertainty in surface-fire history: The case of ponderosa pine forests in the western United States 



Author Donna Ehle 

Abstract Present understanding of fire ecology in forests subject to surface fires is based on fire-scar evidence. We 

present theory and empirical results that suggest that fire-history data have uncertainties and biases when used 

to estimate the population mean fire interval (FI) or other parameters of the fire regime. First, the population 

mean FI is difficult to estimate precisely because of unrecorded fires and can only be shown to lie in a broad 

range. Second, the interval between tree origin and first fire scar estimates a real fire-free interval that warrants 

inclusion in mean-FI calculations. Finally, inadequate sampling and targeting of multiple-scarred trees and high 

scar densities bias mean FIs toward shorter intervals. In ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. 

Laws.) forests of the western United States, these uncertainties and biases suggest that reported mean FIs of 

2-25 years significantly underestimate population mean FIs, which instead may be between 22 and 308 years. 

We suggest that uncertainty be explicitly stated in fire-history results by bracketing the range of possible 

population mean FIs. Research and improved methods may narrow the range, but there is no statistical or other 

method that can eliminate all uncertainty. Longer mean FIs in ponderosa pine forests suggest that (i) surface fire 

is still important, but less so in maintaining forest structure, and (ii) some dense patches of trees may have 

occurred in the pre-Euro-American landscape. Creation of low-density forest structure across all parts of 

ponderosa pine landscapes, particularly in valuable parks and reserves, is not supported by these results. 


Volume 31 

Issue 7 

Pages 1205–1226 



DOI 10.1139/cjfr-31-7-1205 

ISSN 1208-6037 

Short Title Uncertainty in surface-fire history 




Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction 


Author Thomas R. Stewart 


Book Title Prediction: Science, decision making, and the future of nature 



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Date 2000 

Pages 41-57 

ISBN 1559637765, 9781559637763 

URL http://www.albany.edu/cpr/stewart/Papers/StewartPrediction-2000cap.pdf 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Stewart, T. R. (2000). Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction. In D. Sarewitz & R. A. Pielke & R. Byerly (Eds.), Prediction: 

Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature (First ed., pp.41-57). Washington, DC: Island Press. 

Undaunted courage: Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson, and the opening of the American West 

Notes: 

Type Book 

Author Stephen E. Ambrose 

Abstract In this sweeping adventure story, Stephen E. Ambrose, the bestselling author od D-Day, presents the definitive 

account of one of the most momentous journeys in American history. Ambrose follows the Lewis and Clark 

Expedition from Thomas Jefferson's hope of finding a waterway to the Pacific, through the heart-stopping 

moments of the actual trip, to Lewis's lonely demise on the Natchez Trace. Along the way, Ambrose shows us 

the American West as Lewis saw it -- wild, awsome, and pristinely beautiful. Undaunted Courage is a stunningly 

told action tale that will delight readers for generations. (Publisher's Description) 

Edition 1st edition, illustrated 


Publisher Simon and Schuster 



ISBN 0684811073, 9780684811079 

Short Title Undaunted courage 

URL http://books.simonandschuster.com/Undaunted-Courage/Stephen-E-Ambrose/9780684811079 



Book Overview: 

From the bestselling author of the definitive book on D-Day comes the definitive book on the most momentous expedition in 

American history and one of the great adventure stories of all time. 

In 1803 President Thomas Jefferson selected his personal secretary, Captain Meriwether Lewis, to lead a voyage up the Missouri 

River to the Rockies, over the mountains, down the Columbia River to the Pacific Ocean, and back. Lewis was the perfect choice. He 

endured incredible hardships and saw incredible sights, including vast herds of buffalo and Indian tribes that had had no previous 

contact with white men. He and his partner, Captain William Clark, made the first map of the trans-Mississippi West, provided 

invaluable scientific data on the flora and fauna of the Louisiana Purchase territory, and established the American claim to Oregon, 

Washington, and Idaho. Ambrose has pieced together previously unknown information about weather, terrain, and medical knowledge 

at the time to provide a colorful and realistic backdrop for the expedition. Lewis saw the North American continent before any other 

white man; Ambrose describes in detail native peoples, weather, landscape, science, everything the expedition encountered along the 

way, through Lewis's eyes. 

Lewis is supported by a rich variety of colorful characters, first of all Jefferson himself, whose interest in exploring and acquiring the 

American West went back thirty years. Next comes Clark, a rugged frontiersman whose love for Lewis matched Jefferson's. There are 

numerous Indian chiefs, and Sacagawea, the Indian girl who accompanied the expedition, along with the French-Indian hunter 

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Drouillard, the great naturalists of Philadelphia, the French and Spanish fur traders of St. Louis, John Quincy Adams, and many more 

leading political, scientific, and military figures of the turn of the century. 

This is a book about a hero. This is a book about national unity. But it is also a tragedy. When Lewis returned to Washington in the fall 

of 1806, he was a national hero. But for Lewis, the expedition was a failure. Jefferson had hoped to find an all-water route to the 

Pacific with a short hop over the Rockies-Lewis discovered there was no such passage. Jefferson hoped the Louisiana Purchase would 

provide endless land to support farming-but Lewis discovered that the Great Plains were too dry. Jefferson hoped there was a river 

flowing from Canada into the Missouri-but Lewis reported there was no such river, and thus no U.S. claim to the Canadian prairie. 

Lewis discovered the Plains Indians were hostile and would block settlement and trade up the Missouri. Lewis took to drink, engaged 

in land speculation, piled up debts he could not pay, made jealous political enemies, and suffered severe depression. 

High adventure, high politics, suspense, drama, and diplomacy combine with high romance and personal tragedy to make this 

outstanding work of scholarship as readable as a novel. 

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to western mountains and forests 


Author Rachel Loehman 

Author Greer Anderson 

Abstract Climate change presents significant risks to our nation's natural and cultural resources. Although climate change 

was once believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet's climate 

system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions of greenhouse gases 

have caused recent observed climate changes, fewer are aware of the specific impacts these changes will bring. 

This document is part of a series of bioregional summaries that provide key scientific findings about climate 

changes in and impacts to protected areas. The information is intended to provide a basic understanding of the 

science of climate change, known and expected impacts to resources and visitor experience, and actions that 

can be taken to mitigate and adapt to change. The statements may be used to communicate with managers, 

frame interpretive programs, and answer general questions to the public and the media. They also provide 

helpful information to consider in the developing sustainability strategies and long-term management plans. 

Report Number NPS/NRPC/NRR - 2009/090 

Report Type Natural Resource Report 


Institution U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Natural Resources Program Center 


Pages 30 p. 

Short Title Understanding the science of climate change 

URL http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2009_loehman_r001.pdf 


Extra Keywords: climate change; emissions; greenhouse gases. 



Notes: 

Citation: 

Loehman, Rachel; Anderson, Greer 2009. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to western 

mountains and forests. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/NRR - 2009/090. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of the Interior, 

National Park Service, Natural Resources Program Center. 30 p. 

United States drought of 2007: Historical perspectives 


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Author Justin T. Maxwell 


Abstract The impacts of the United States drought of 2007 to both society and wcosystems were substantive and included 

multi-billion dollar agricultural losses and the second worst wildfire season on record. The purpose of this paper 

is to place the 2007 drought in historical perspective relative to the climate record from 1895–2007 to increase 

our understanding of this hazard and contribute to improvements of drought mitigation plans. We compared the 

2007 drought historically against the climatic record (1895–2007) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index 

(PDSI). We then examined the temporal progression of the 2007 drought and placed the peak month of drought 

severity (November) in historical perspective using rankings of severity and statistical recurrence intervals. 

Moreover, we examined the climatic factors (e.g. geopotential height anomalies) that contributed to both 

abnormally dry and wet conditions recorded within the continental United States. While there were regions that 

experienced the worst drought on record both annually and in November during the calendar year 2007, this 

year was not as severe as other notable drought years. November 2007 ties (with 5 other years) for the 12th 

worst on record in terms of the number of climatic divisions experiencing the worst November drought. 

Statistically, drought/wetness conditions in November 2007 were not exceptionally extreme, with almost all of 

the calculated statistical recurrence intervals being much less than the 113 year period of record. 

Publication Climate Research 

Volume 38 

Issue 2 

Pages 95-104 


Journal Abbr Clim. Res. 

DOI 10.3354/cr00772 

ISSN 0936-577X 

Short Title United States drought of 2007 

URL http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v38/n2/p95-104/ 

Extra Keywords: PDSI; historical rank; recurrence interval; media; geopotential height; anomalies. 



US Weather Bureau Chief Willis Moore and the reimagination of uncertainty in long-range forecasting 


Author Jamie L. Pietruska 

Abstract This article examines competing modes of knowledge production in the context of long-range weather 

forecasting in the United States at the turn of the twentieth century. The US Weather Bureau, a newly 

constituted civilian organisation in 1891, sought to build its institutional reputation based on authoritative 

short-term 24-hour forecasts by discrediting the popular and ubiquitous 'weather prophets' who made long-range 

predictions. Chief Willis L. Moore, at the helm of the Weather Bureau from 1895 to 1913, initially condemned 

long-range forecasting as superstition and quackery inherently inferior to professional meteorological expertise. 

But the Weather Bureau, which began issuing its own weekly forecasts in 1908, reimagined long-range 

forecasting to accept the very indeterminacy it had formerly denounced, thereby rationalising the uncertainty of 

weather prediction into its weekly forecasts and into its vision of modern scientific meteorology. 

Publication Environment and History 

Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 79-105 


Journal Abbr Environ. Hist. 

DOI 10.3197/096734011X12922359172970 

ISSN 0967-3407 

URL http://www.erica.demon.co.uk/EH/EH1705.html 

Extra Keywords: US Weather Bureau; Willis Moore; weather prophets; weather forecasting; professionalisation; 

science and the public; knowledge production; uncertainty; prediction. 


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Use of controlled fire in southeastern upland game management 


Author Herbert L. Stoddard 



Volume 33 

Issue 3 

Pages 346–351 



ISSN 0022-1201 

URL http://saf.publisher.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/jof/1935/00000033/00000003/art00034 



Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change 



Author Francis Zwiers 

Abstract Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of 

climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the 

climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated 

uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to 

separate the components of observed changes due to radiative forcing from those due to internal climate 

variability. Results from observation-only studies are broadly consistent with those from fingerprint studies. 

Fingerprint studies evaluate the extent to which patterns of response to external forcing (fingerprints) from 

climate model simulations explain observed climate change in observations. Fingerprints are based on climate 

models of various complexities, from energy balance models to full earth system models. Statistical approaches 

range from simple comparisons of observations with model simulations to multi-regression methods that 

estimate the contribution of several forcings to observed change using a noise-reducing metric. Multi-model 

methods can address model uncertainties to some extent and we discuss how remaining uncertainties can be 

overcome. The increasing focus on detecting and attributing regional climate change and impacts presents both 

opportunities and challenges. Challenges arise because internal variability is larger on smaller scales, and 

regionally important forcings, such as from aerosols or land-use change, are often uncertain. Nevertheless, if 

regional climate change can be linked to external forcing, the results can be used to provide constraints on 

regional climate projections. 


Volume 2 

Issue 4 

Pages 570–591 

Date July/August 2011 


DOI 10.1002/wcc.121 

ISSN 1757-7780 




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Use of NOAA ESRL data (CO₂) 

Type Web Page 

Contributor Pieter Tans 

Contributor C. David Keeling 

Abstract These data are made freely available to the public and the scientific community in the belief that their wide 

dissemination will lead to greater understanding and new scientific insights. The availability of these data does 

not constitute publication of the data. NOAA relies on the ethics and integrity of the user to assure that ESRL 

receives fair credit for their work. If the data are obtained for potential use in a publication or presentation, 

ESRL should be informed at the outset of the nature of this work. If the ESRL data are essential to the work, or 

if an important result or conclusion depends on the ESRL data, co-authorship may be appropriate. This should 

be discussed at an early stage in the work. Manuscripts using the ESRL data should be sent to ESRL for review 

before they are submitted for publication so we can insure that the quality and limitations of the data are 

accurately represented. 

Website Type ftp 

URL ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 



Attachments 

Scripps CO2 Program - Home 

Using size-frequency distributions to analyze fire regimes in Florida 


Author Thomas P. Holmes 

Author Jeffrey P. Prestemon 

Author John M. Pye 

Author David T. Butry 

Author D. Evan Mercer 

Author Karen L. Abt 

Abstract Wildfire regimes in natural forest ecosystems have been characterized with power–law distributions. In this 

paper, we evaluated whether wildfire regimes in a human-dominated landscape were also consistent with 

power–law distributions. Our case study focused on wildfires in Florida, a state with rapid population growth 

and consequent rapid alteration of forest ecosystems and natural fire regimes. We found that all fire 

size–frequency distributions evaluated in this study were consistent with power–law distributions, but the 

power–law distributions were piece-wise linear. A kink in the power–law distributions occurred at about 640 ha 

for flatwoods fires and at about 290 ha for swamp fires. Above these levels, fires “exploded” into a catastrophic 

regime. If the kink represents the level at which fires become immune to fire suppression effort, we would 

expect that the location of the kink would occur at smaller fire sizes during extreme fire years due to the 

increased flammability of fuels and the relative scarcity of fire suppression resources. We found this result for 

three of four extreme fire years in flatwoods ecosystems and for all four extreme fire years in swamps. These 

results suggest that catastrophic fires may not be possible to prevent and that suppression efforts during extreme 

fire years may be best applied to strategic areas that decrease the connectivity of fuels. 

Date 2004 

Proceedings Title Fire in Temperate, Boreal, and Montane Ecosystems 

Conference Name Proceedings 22nd Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference: Fire in Temperate, Boreal, and Montane Ecosystems, 

Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, 15-18 October 2001 

Place Tallahassee, Florida 

Publisher Tall Timbers Research Station 

Pages 88-94 

Series Fire Ecology Conference Proceedings 


Archive http://www.talltimbers.org/publications4sale.html#FECP 

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Notes: 

Citation: 

Extra Keywords: fire regime; fire suppression; Florida; power–law distributions; self-organization; size–frequency 

distribution. 



Holmes, Thomas P.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Pye, John M.; Butry, David T.; Mercer, D. Evan; Abt, Karen L. 2004. Using 

Size-Frequency Distributions to Analyze Fire Regimes in Florida. Pages 88-94 in R.T. Engstrom, K.E.M. Galley, and W.J. de Groot 

(eds.). Proceedings of the 22nd Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference: Fire in Temperate, Boreal, and Montane Ecosystems. Tall 

Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL. 

Variability in fire–climate relationships in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range 




Abstract Understanding the interactions of climate variability and wildfire has been a primary objective of recent fire 

history research. The present study examines the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific 

Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on fire occurrence using fire-scar 

evidence from 58 sites from the lower ecotone to the upper elevational limits of ponderosa pine (Pinus 

ponderosa) in northern Colorado. An important finding is that at low v. high elevations within the montane zone, 

climatic patterns conducive to years of widespread fire are different. Differences in fire–climate relationships 

are manifested primarily in antecedent year climate. Below ~2100 m, fires are dependent on antecedent moister 

conditions that favour fine fuel accumulation 2 years before dry fire years. In the upper montane zone, fires are 

dependent primarily on drought rather than an increase in fine fuels. Throughout the montane zone, fire is 

strongly linked to variations in moisture availability that in turn is linked to climate influences of ENSO, PDO 

and AMO. Fire occurrence is greater than expected during the phases of each index associated with drought. 

Regionally widespread fire years are associated with specific phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO. In 

particular, the combination of La Niña, negative PDO and positive AMO is highly conducive to widespread fire. 


Volume 17 

Issue 1 

Pages 50-59 



DOI 10.1071/WF07029 

ISSN 1049-8001 

URL http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/114/paper/WF07029.htm 

Extra Keywords: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; fire history; Pacific Decadal 

Oscillation; Pinus ponderosa. 



Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle 


Author Alexander W. Tudhope 

Author Colin P. Chilcott 

Author Malcolm T. McCulloch 


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Author John Chappell 

Author Robert M. Ellam 

Author David W. Lea 

Author Janice M. Lough 

Author Graham B. Shimmield 

Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. 

Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated 

efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually 

banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating 

even during “glacial” times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. 

However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous 

cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the 

combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital 

variations. 


Volume 291 

Issue 5508 

Pages 1511-1517 



DOI 10.1126/science.1057969 

ISSN 1095-9203 

URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/291/5508/1511.short 



Variability in the Southern Annular Mode determines wildfire activity in Patagonia 


Author Andrés Holz 


Abstract Under the current global warming trend, wildfire activity is expected to decrease in biomass-limited fire regimes 

but increase in drought-limited fire regimes with abundant biomass. We examined the effects of the Southern 

Annular Mode (SAM) on interannual variability in wildfire activity in xeric woodland and temperate rainforest 

ecosystems across a latitudinal range of 10° in temperate southwestern South America (SSA). Based on 42 fire 

history sites based on nearly 600 fire-scarred trees (the largest available dataset of annually resolved tree-ring 

records of fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere), we show that years of widespread fire in both xeric 

woodland and rainforest ecosystems are associated with positive departures of SAM. The association of positive 

SAM with increased fire activity is explained by the teleconnection of SAM to spring drought across most of 

SSA. During the late 20th century, only the rainforest ecosystem shows a strong increase in fire activity, which 

is consistent both with upward trends in SAM and with warming conditions. We attribute the lack of increased 

burning in the xeric woodland environment to socioeconomic factors and fire behavior (low severity) that 

facilitate more effective fire suppression in the xeric woodland habitat. Given projected future increases in SAM 

and the associated warm-dry trend, wildfire activity in much of SSA is likely to increase during the 21st century. 

Key Points: • SAM determines interannual variability in wildfire activity • Regardless of vegetation type, SAM 

controls variation of years of large fires • Warmer and dryer conditions and longer fire seasons are the local 

mechanisms 


Volume 38 

Issue 14 

Pages L14710 (6 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2011GL047674 

ISSN 0094-8276 

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Extra Keywords: drought; southern South America; temperate rainforests; wildfires; xeric woodland. 



Variability of planetary waves as a signature of possible climatic changes 


Author Alexander I. Pogoreltsev 

Author Anna Yu. Kanukhina 

Author Ekaterina V. Suvorova 

Author Elena N. Savenkova 

Abstract The long-term variability of stationary and traveling planetary waves in the lower stratosphere has been 

investigated using the data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results obtained show that during the last decades 

winter-mean amplitude of the stationary planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (SPW1) increases at the 

higher middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. It has been suggested that the observed increase in the 

SPW1 amplitude should be accompanied by the growth in the magnitude of the stratospheric vacillations. The 

analysis of the SPW1 behavior in the NCEP/NCAR data set supports this suggestion and shows a noticeable 

increase with time in the SPW1 intra-seasonal variability. The amplitudes of the long-period normal atmospheric 

modes, the so-called 5-, 10- and 16-day waves, diminish. It is supposed that one of the possible reasons for this 

decrease can be a growth of radiative damping rate caused, for instance, by the increase of CO₂. To investigate 

a possible climatic change of the middle atmosphere dynamics caused by observed changes in the tropospheric 

temperature, two sets of runs (using zonally averaged temperature distributions in the troposphere typical for 

January 1960 and 2000) with the middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM) have been performed. The 

results obtained show that on average the calculated amplitude of the SPW1 in the stratosphere increased in 

2000 and there is also an increase of its intra-seasonal variability conditioned by nonlinear interaction with the 

mean flow. This increase in the amplitudes of stratospheric vacillations during the last four decades allows us to 

suggest that stratospheric dynamics becomes more stochastic. 

Publication Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 

Volume 71 

Issue 14-15 

Pages 1529-1539 


Journal Abbr J. Atmos. Sol-Terr Phy. 

DOI 10.1016/j.jastp.2009.05.011 

ISSN 1364-6826 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VHB-4WKKTV3-2/2/23bc2bbacfeebb442e2b14d191733a14 

Extra Keywords: planetary wave; climatic variability; middle atmosphere; Stratospheric vacillations; normal 

atmospheric modes. 



Variation in intra-annual radial growth (xylem formation) of Picea mariana (Pinaceae) along a 

latitudinal gradient in western Quebec, Canada 


Author Jian-Guo Huang 


Author Lihong Zhai 

Author Bernhard Denneler 

Abstract • Premise of the study: Climate warming might have resulted in altered initiation and termination dates of stem 

xylem growth in boreal stands. A systematic understanding of intra-annual xylem formation is thus needed for 

precise simulation of future growth in the context of sustainable forest management. • Methods: A recently 

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developed novel microsampling approach was employed over two growing seasons (2005–2006) to investigate 

the intra-annual stem xylem formation of Picea mariana at three sites along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 

47.5–50°N) in western Quebec, Canada. The critical timings of xylem cell formation were determined and 

compared among sites/years. The relationships between xylem cell formation and meteorological variables were 

examined. • Key results: From south to north, the onset of xylem cell production was detected on 20 May (SD 

±3) at Angliers, 24 May (SD ±3) at Chicobi and 24 May (SD±4) at Muskuchii in 2005, and on 12 May (SD ±4) 

at Angliers, 14 May (SD ±3) at Chicobi and 20 May (SD ±3) at Muskuchii in 2006, respectively. Xylem cell 

production at each respective site terminated on 11 August (SD ±4), 7 August (SD ±3), and 7 August (SD ±4) in 

2005, and on 8 August (SD ±4), 4 August (SD ±4), and 4 August (SD ±4) in 2006, respectively. • Conclusion: 

Our study implies that despite the expected occurrence of earlier phenological development due to early spring 

climate warming, boreal trees like P. mariana might not be producing wider rings if cold temperatures occur later 

in the growing season in June to August. These results may challenge the view that boreal trees could be 

benefiting from spring warming to enhance growth. 


Volume 98 

Issue 5 

Pages 792-800 

Date May 2011 


DOI 10.3732/ajb.1000074 

ISSN 0002-9122 

URL http://www.amjbot.org/cgi/doi/10.3732/ajb.1000074 

Extra Keywords: boreal forest; climate change; Gompertz function; growing season; intra-annual xylem formation; 

Picea mariana; wood anatomy. 



Variation in local weather explains differences in fire regimes within a Québec south-eastern boreal 

forest landscape 






Author Byambagere Suran 

Abstract Variation in natural disturbance regime within a landscape is important for species population dynamics, because 

it controls spatial arrangement of sites providing regeneration and survival opportunities. In this study, we 

examine the differences in fire regime and evaluate possible sources of its variation between the surrounding 

mainland and the islands of Lake Duparquet (44.5 km²), a typical boreal lake in north-western Quebec, Canada. 

Dendrochronological reconstructions suggest that fires were frequent and of variable intensity on the islands, 

whereas fires were less frequent on the adjacent mainland, but were usually large and intense. Islands were 

significantly drier and warmer than the mainland, and maximum values of Fire Weather Index were significantly 

higher on the islands during both the early part of the fire season (May–June) and the whole fire season 

(May–September). The lightning density within the lake perimeter was significantly higher than in the 

surrounding mainland (0.63 v. 0.48 year⁻¹km² respectively). This pattern was a result of the differences in 

lightning density during the first half of the lightning season. The study suggests that more fire-prone local 

weather and higher frequency of lightning strikes could cause a higher frequency of low-intensity fires on the 

islands, compared with the mainland. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1073–1082 



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DOI 10.1071/WF09101 

ISSN 1448-5516 


paper=WF09101 

Extra Keywords: climate variability; fire hazard; fire history; fire weather; island ecosystems; natural disturbance; 

Quebec Clay Belt; red pine. 



Variations in a regional fire regime related to vegetation type in San Diego County, California (USA) 


Author Michael L. Wells 

Author John F. O’Leary 

Author Janet Franklin 


Author David E. McKinsey 

Abstract This study considers variations in a regional fire regime that are related to vegetation structure. Using a 

Geographic Information System, the vegetation of San Diego County, Southern coastal California USA is 

divided into six generalized classes based on dominant plant form and include: herbaceous, sage scrub, 

chaparral, hardwood forest, conifer forest and desert. Mapped fire occurrences for the 20th century are then 

overlain to produce records of stand age, fire frequency and transitional stability for each of the vegetation 

classes. A ‘Manhattan’ similarity index is used to compare and group transition matrices for the six classes of 

vegetation. This analysis groups herbaceous, hardwood and conifer forests in one group, sage scrub and 

chaparral in a second, and desert in a third. In general, sage scrub and chaparral have burned more frequently 

than other vegetation types during the course of the 20th century. Temporal trends suggest that the rate of 

burning in shrub-dominated vegetation is either stable (chaparral) or increasing (sage scrub), while the rate of 

burning in both hardwood and conifer forest is declining. This is consistent with a pattern of increased fire 

ignitions along the relatively low elevation urbanwildland interface, and an increase in the efficiency of fire 

suppression in high elevation forests. 


Volume 19 

Issue 2 

Pages 139–152 



DOI 10.1023/B:LAND.0000021713.81489.a7 


URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/xx00155q65147l45/ 

Extra Keywords: GIS-coupled modeling; landscape-scale vegetation change; regional fire regime; similarity index; 

Southern California vegetation; spatial variability; transition matrices; vegetation classification. 



Variations in fire frequency and climate over the past 17 000 yr in central Yellowstone National Park 


Author Sarah H. Millspaugh 



Abstract Macroscopic charcoal particles were tallied from contiguous 1 cm samples of a 6.69-m-long core, and the data 

were converted to charcoal-accumulation rates at evenly spaced time intervals. Intervals of high charcoalaccumulation 

rates were interpreted as local fire events on the basis of information obtained from modern 

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charcoal-calibration studies in the Yellowstone region. The record indicates that fire frequency was moderate (4 

fires/1000 yr) during the late glacial period, reached highest values in the early Holocene (>10 fires/1000 yr), 

and decreased after 7000 calendar yr B.P. The present fire regime (2–3 fires/1000 yr) was established in the past 

2000 yr. The charcoal stratigraphy correlates well with variations in July insolation through time, which suggests 

that regional climate changes are responsible for the long-term variations in fire frequency. In the early 

Holocene, summer insolation was near its maximum, which resulted in warmer, effectively drier conditions 

throughout the northwestern United States. At this time, the fire frequency near Cygnet Lake was at its highest. 

After 7000 calendar yr B.P., summer insolation decreased to present values, the regional climate became cooler 

and wetter, and fires were less frequent. The Cygnet Lake record suggests that long-term fire frequencies have 

varied continuously with climate change, even when the vegetation has remained constant. 


Volume 28 

Issue 3 

Pages 211-214 



DOI 10.1130/0091-7613(2000)282.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0091-7613 

URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/28/3/211.full 

Extra Keywords: fire history; charcoal analysis; Yellowstone; Holocene. 



Vegetation and fire history since the Late Pleistocene from the Trinity Mountains, northwestern 



Author Mark L. Daniels 



Abstract A 267-cm sediment core spanning the past c. 15 200 cal. yr was recovered from Mumbo Lake, in the Trinity 

Mountains of northwestern California's Klamath Region. Plant macrofossils and pollen detail local and 

extra-local vegetation history, while high-resolution charcoal analysis provides details on local fire history. For 

the first c. 3000 years, climate was colder and drier than present, and supported an open, subalpine parkland 

vegetation, with low fire frequencies and fuel biomass. From c. 12 100 to 9800 cal. yr BP increasing moisture 

and soil development led to a woodland community with three new pine species invading the basin. Fire 

frequencies remained low, but individual fires may have been more intense because of increased fuel loads. 

Between c. 9800 and 7200 cal. yr BP, climate warmed and dried considerably, allowing for the expansion of oak 

and other chaparral species. Fire frequencies increased in the early Holocene, but low charcoal accumulation 

rates suggest a frequent, relatively low-intensity fire regime. From c. 7200 to 3800 cal. yr BP, the climate 

became cooler and moister again. Many conifer species appeared for the first time, although chaparral species 

maintained a strong presence. The fire record shows a dramatic increase in charcoal accumulation rates as well 

as an increase in fire frequency. From c. 3800 cal. yr BP to present, more conifer species enter the record, and 

abundance of chaparral species gradually diminishes to present levels. 


Volume 15 

Issue 7 

Pages 1062-1071 



DOI 10.1191/0959683605hl878ra 

ISSN 1477-0911 

URL http://hol.sagepub.com/content/15/7/1062.short 

Extra Keywords: Klamath; pollen; charcoal; fire; climatic change; vegetation change; Trinity Mountains; California; 

Late Pleistocene; Holocene. 

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Vegetation and wildland fire: Implications of global climate change 


Author Kevin C. Ryan 

Abstract Climate, vegetation, and fire are interrelated so that any change in one will affect the others. Increases in 

greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, are expected to increase average surface temperatures and alter 

precipitation patterns. These changes will alter numerous biochemical processes of vegetative communities. 

Changes in growth rates, carbon allocation patterns, nutrient cycling, and competitive interactions will lead to 

direct changes in the structure and species composition of many plant communities. Major shifts in vegetation 

zones will occur in many regions. Climate change will affect fire potential by influencing the frequency and 

severity of weather favorable for fire. Climate-driven changes in the structure and composition of plant 

communities will also affect fire potential by altering the physical and chemical properties of fuels. Changes in 

timing and severity of fire will modify the rate at which communities respond to climate change. This in turn will 

alter fuel properties, further modifying fire potential. Changes in fire regimes will directly affect the chemistry of 

the atmosphere by modifying vegetation and emitting gases and particulate matter. The expected rate and 

magnitude of these changes raises questions for the continued integrity, vitality, and stability of current 

ecosystems. 

Publication Environment International 

Volume 17 

Issue 2-3 

Pages 169-178 

Date 1991 

Journal Abbr Environ. Int. 

DOI 10.1016/0160-4120(91)90099-C 

ISSN 0160-4120 

Short Title Vegetation and wildland fire 

URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/016041209190099C 



Vegetation changes in Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California, during the protohistoric 

period 



Author Scott L. Carpenter 

Abstract The sediments of Woski Pond, Yosemite Valley in Yosemite National Park, record paleoenvironmental change 

spanning the last 1550 years. Closed conifer forest, consisting primarily of ponderosa pine, white fir, incense 

cedar and Douglas fir, existed around the pond until ca. 650 years ago. After 650 years ago more open canopy 

vegetation types such as oaks, sage and shrubs were found. Ethnographic records taken at the time of contact 

indicate that the aboriginal inhabitants regularly burned the Valley. The rapid decline in pine and increase in oak, 

coupled with elevated charcoal concentrations, indications of increased erosion and great expansion of 

aboriginal populations and cultural technologies are highly suggestive of vegetation manipulation for increased 

food resources by the early inhabitants of the Valley. These findings have implications for management of 

assumed natural vegetation types. 

Publication Madroño 

Volume 38 

Issue 1 

Pages 1–13 

Date January-March 1991 

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Journal Abbr Madroño 

ISSN 0024-9637 

URL http://mercedriverwatershed.org/biblio/biosys/ref85 



Vegetation, fire, and climate history of the northwestern Great Basin during the last 14,000 years 


Author Thomas A. Minckley 



Abstract The northwestern Great Basin lies in the transition zone between the mesic Pacific Northwest and xeric 

intermountain West. The paleoenvironmental history based on pollen, macroscopic charcoal, and plant 

macrofossils from three sites in the northwestern Great Basin was examined to understand the relationships 

among the modern vegetation, fire disturbance and climate. The vegetation history suggests that steppe and 

open forest communities were present at high elevations from ca 11,000 to 7000 cal yr BP, and were replaced 

by forests composed of white fir, western white pine, and whitebark pine in the late Holocene. Over the last 

11,000 years, fires were more frequent in mid-elevation forests (10-25 fire episodes/1000 years) and rare in 

high-elevation forests (2-5 fire episodes/1000 years). Applying modern pollen-climate relationships to the fossil 

pollen spectra provided a means to interpret past climate changes in this region. In the past 9000 years summer 

temperatures decreased from 1 to 4 °C, and annual precipitation has increased 7-15%. These results indicate 

that the millennial-scale climate forcing driving vegetation changes can be quantified within the intermountain 

West in general and northwestern Great Basin in particular. In addition, fire can be considered an important 

component of these ecosystems, but it does not appear to be a forcing mechanism for vegetation change at the 

resolution of these records. 


Volume 26 

Issue 17-18 

Pages 2167-2184 




ISSN 0277-3791 




Vegetational history of the Central Plains 


Author Herbert E. Wright Jr 

Book Title Pleistocene and Recent Environments of the Central Great Plains 

Series Department of Geology, University of Kansas. Special publication 3 


Place Lawrence 

Publisher University Press of Kansas 

Date 1970 

Pages 157–172 

ISBN 0700600639 

URL http://www.lib.muohio.edu/multifacet/record/mu3ugb1619026 


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Notes: 

Citation: 

Wright, H.E., Jr., 1970, Vegetational history of the Central Plains, In: Dort Jr., W. and Jones Jr., J.K. (eds.). Pleistocene and recent 

environments of the Great Plains. University of Kansas Press, Lawrence, pp. 157-172. 

Volcanic and solar forcing of climate change during the preindustrial era 




Author Ron L. Miller 


Abstract The climate response to variability in volcanic aerosols and solar irradiance, the primary forcings during the 

preindustrial era, is examined in a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The best agreement with 

historical and proxy data is obtained using both forcings, each of which has a significant effect on global mean 

temperatures. However, their regional climate impacts in the Northern Hemisphere are quite different. While the 

short-term continental winter warming response to volcanism is well known, it is shown that due to opposing 

dynamical and radiative effects, the long-term (decadal mean) regional response is not significant compared to 

unforced variability for either the winter or the annual average. In contrast, the long-term regional response to 

solar forcing greatly exceeds unforced variability for both time averages, as the dynamical and radiative effects 

reinforce one another, and produces climate anomalies similar to those seen during the Little Ice Age. Thus, 

long-term regional changes during the preindustrial appear to have been dominated by solar forcing. 


Volume 16 

Issue 24 

Pages 4094-4107 



ISSN 1520-0442 

URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175 

/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C4094%3AVASFOC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Volcanism, mass extinction, and carbon isotope fluctuations in the Middle Permian of China 


Author Paul B. Wignall 

Author Yadong Sun 

Author David P. G. Bond 

Author Gareth Izon 

Author Robert J. Newton 

Author Stéphanie Védrine 

Author Mike Widdowson 

Author Jason R. Ali 

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Author Xulong Lai 

Author Haishui Jiang 

Author Helen Cope 

Author Simon H. Bottrell 

Abstract The 260-million-year-old Emeishan volcanic province of southwest China overlies and is interbedded with 

Middle Permian carbonates that contain a record of the Guadalupian mass extinction. Sections in the region thus 

provide an opportunity to directly monitor the relative timing of extinction and volcanism within the same 

locations. These show that the onset of volcanism was marked by both large phreatomagmatic eruptions and 

extinctions amongst fusulinacean foraminifers and calcareous algae. The temporal coincidence of these two 

phenomena supports the idea of a cause-and-effect relationship. The crisis predates the onset of a major 

negative carbon isotope excursion that points to subsequent severe disturbance of the ocean-atmosphere carbon 

cycle. 


Volume 324 

Issue 5931 

Pages 1179-1182 



DOI 10.1126/science.1171956 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and 

ecosystems 


Author Sandra Lavorel 


Author Eric F. Lambin 

Author Mary C. Scholes 

Abstract Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha 

burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. 

Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land 

use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to 

global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have 

significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse 

gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7 – 4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface 

properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of 

ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can 

hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of 

vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to 

advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human 

consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we 

present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is 

structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first 

subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to 

atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem 

links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for 

human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases 

with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs. 


Volume 12 

Issue 1 

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Pages 33-53 



DOI 10.1007/s11027-006-9046-5 

ISSN 1381-2386 


Extra Keywords: climate; Earth system feedback; ecosystem services; emissions; fire regime; global change; humanenvironment 

system; land use; vulnerability analysis. 



Warm, not super-hot, temperatures in the early Eocene subtropics 


Author Caitlin R. Keating-Bitonti 

Author Linda C. Ivany 

Author Hagit P. Affek 

Author Peter Douglas 

Author Scott D. Samson 

Abstract The early Eocene (ca. 55–48 Ma) encompasses one of the warmest intervals of the past 65 m.y. and is 

characterized by an unusually low equator-to-pole thermal gradient. Recent proxy studies suggest temperatures 

well in excess of 30 °C even at high latitudes, but conflicting interpretations derived from different types of data 

leave considerable uncertainty about actual early Eocene temperatures. A robust comparison among new 

paleotemperature proxies may provide insight into possible biases in their temperature estimates, and additional 

detail on the spatial distribution of temperatures will further resolve the early Eocene meridional temperature 

gradient. We use a suite of paleotemperature proxies based on the chemistry of bivalve shell carbonate and 

associated sedimentary organic matter from the United States Gulf Coastal Plain to constrain climate at a 

subtropical site during this key interval of Earth history. Oxygen isotope and clumped isotope analyses of shell 

carbonate and two tetraether lipid analyses of sedimentary organic carbon all yield temperatures of ~27 °C. 

High-resolution, intraannual oxygen isotope data reveal a consistent, large range of seasonal variation, but 

clumped isotope data suggest that seasonality is due primarily to precipitation, not to temperature. These 

paleotemperature estimates are 2–3 °C warmer than the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and generally consistent 

with early Eocene temperature estimates from other low and mid-latitude locations, but are significantly cooler 

than contemporaneous estimates from high southern latitudes. 


Volume 39 

Issue 8 

Pages 771-774 



DOI 10.1130/G32054.1 

ISSN 0091-7613 




Warm, warm on the range 



Abstract Global warming is a very real phenomenon and most agree that human activities have contributed to an increase 

in the minimum daily temperature. In this issue, Alward et al . demonstrate that this increase in minimum 

temperature causes a distinct change in the mix of plants found in a prairie grassland in the Midwestern United 

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States. In his Perspective, Mellilo describes other examples of warming's effect on ecological systems and 

explains how we can best study these changes. 


Volume 283 

Issue 5399 

Pages 183-184 



DOI 10.1126/science.283.5399.183 





Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity 



Author Hugo G. Hidalgo 



Abstract Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither 

the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has 

been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United 

States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19thand 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a 

comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with 

hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and 

markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire 

seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories 

have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer 

temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt. 


Volume 313 

Issue 5789 

Pages 940-943 



DOI 10.1126/science.1128834 

ISSN 0036-8075 




Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne 





Author Chris D. Jones 



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Author Nicolai Meinshausen 

Abstract Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual 

equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas 

concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous 

levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a 

weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climatecarbon-cycle 

models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate 

the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming 

caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a 

stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is 

remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets 

based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty 

than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 

trillion tonnes of CO₂), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a 

most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% 

confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C. 


Volume 458 

Issue 7242 

Pages 1163-1166 



DOI 10.1038/nature08019 

ISSN 0028-0836 




Wave-maintained annular modes of climate variability* 


Author Varavut Limpasuvan 

Author Dennis L. Hartmann 

Abstract The leading modes of month-to-month variability in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are examined by 

comparing a 100-yr run of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM with the NCEP–NCAR 

reanalyses of observations. The model simulation is a control experiment in which the SSTs are fixed to the 

climatological annual cycle without any interannual variability. The leading modes contain a strong zonally 

symmetric or annular component that describes an expansion and contraction of the polar vortex as the 

midlatitude jet shifts equatorward and poleward. This fluctuation is strongest during the winter months. The 

structure and amplitude of the simulated modes are very similar to those derived from observations, indicating 

that these modes arise from the internal dynamics of the atmosphere. Dynamical diagnosis of both observations 

and model simulation indicates that variations in the zonally symmetric flow associated with the annular modes 

are forced by eddy fluxes in the free troposphere, while the Coriolis acceleration associated with the mean 

meridional circulation maintains the surface wind anomalies against friction. High-frequency transients 

contribute most to the total eddy forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, stationary 

waves provide most of the eddy momentum fluxes, although high-frequency transients also make an important 

contribution. The behavior of the stationary waves can be partly explained with index of refraction arguments. 

When the tropospheric westerlies are displaced poleward, Rossby waves are refracted equatorward, inducing 

poleward momentum fluxes and reinforcing the high-latitude westerlies. Planetary Rossby wave refraction can 

also explain why the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger when the tropospheric westerlies are displaced 

poleward. When planetary wave activity is refracted equatorward, it is less likely to propagate into the 

stratosphere and disturb the polar vortex. 


Volume 13 

Issue 24 

Pages 4414-4429 


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DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0894-8755 


/1520-0442%282000%29013%3C4414%3AWMAMOC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the Late Holocene 




Author Kenneth Lertzman 

Author Peter Corbett 

Abstract Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale 

of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, 

topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here 

stand-scale (,100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two 

lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, 

and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We 

evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall 

incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial 

to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between 

the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no 

statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the 

last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited 

little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both 

sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the 

increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased 

regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, 

non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern 

conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely 

because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire 

occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from 

a region are essential if climate–fire relations are to be reliably described. 


Volume 87 

Issue 7 

Pages 1722-1732 



DOI 10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1722:WCCOSF]2.0.CO;2 

ISSN 0012-9658 


/0012-9658%282006%2987%5B1722%3AWCCOSF%5D2.0.CO%3B2? 


Extra Keywords: bivariate Ripley K function; British Columbia; charcoal; climatic change; fire history; fire regime; 

landscape connectivity; late Holocene; synchrony. 



Weather and forest inflammability in the Southern Appalachians 

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Author Edwin F. McCarthy 

Abstract no abstract. The study of forest-fire weather in the Southern Appalachian region has been carried on by the 

Appalachian Forest Experiment. Station at intervals since the fall of 1922. During this time two general phases 

of the subject have received attention—the relation of current weather conditions to forest-fire occurrence, and 

the rate of drying forest fuels under different conditions of weather. Two papers have been published on the first 

phase of this subject. 


Volume 55 

Issue 3 

Pages 119-122 



DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1927)552.0.CO;2 

ISSN 1520-0493 

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1175%2F1520-0493%281927%2955%3C119%3AWAFIIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 



Weather prediction by numerical process 

Notes: 

Contents : 

Preface …Vii 

Type Book 

Author Lewis Fry Richardson 

Abstract Description: The idea of forecasting the weather by calculation was first dreamt of by Lewis Fry Richardson. He 

set out in this book a detailed algorithm for systematic numerical weather prediction. The method of computing 

atmospheric changes, which he mapped out in great detail in this book, is essentially the method used today. He 

was greatly ahead of his time because, before his ideas could bear fruit, advances in four critical areas were 

needed: better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere; stable computational algorithms to integrate 

the equations; regular observations of the free atmosphere; and powerful automatic computer equipment. Over 

the ensuing years, progress in numerical weather prediction has been dramatic. Weather prediction and climate 

modelling have now reached a high level of sophistication, and are witness to the influence of Richardson's 

ideas. This new edition contains a new foreword by Peter Lynch that sets the original book in context. 

Series Cambridge Mathematical Library 


Place London 


Date 1922 


ISBN 9780521680448 

URL http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp? 

isbn=9780521680448 

Archive http://www.archive.org/details/weatherpredictio00richrich 



Guiding Signs … X 

List Of Contents 7~ ~ Xi 

1. 

Summary 1 

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2. Introductory Example 4 

3. The Choice Of Coordinate Differences .... 16 

4. The Fundamental Equations 21 

5. Finding The Vertical Velocity 115 

6. Special Treatment For The Stratosphere . . .125 

7. The Arrangement Of Points And Instants . . .149 

8. Review Of Operations In Sequence 156 

9. An Example Worked On Computing Forms . . .181 

10. Smoothing The Initial Data 214 

11. Some Remaining Problems 217 

12. Units And Notation 223 

Index Of Persons .' 230 

Index Of Subsidiary Subjects . 231 

What you need to know: Twenty questions and answers about climate change 

Type Book 

Author Climate Central 

Author Sally Ride Science 

Abstract This book represents a joint effort between the scientists and communicators at Climate Central and Sally Ride 

Science. Using straightforward language, we divide the issue of climate change into three parts—The Science, 

The Impacts, and The Solutions. In part one, we present an overview of what scientists know about the nature 

of climate change. In part two, we present the likely impacts of climate change and what could be in store in the 

future. And in part three, we review a range of possible solutions. We hope that this approach enables readers to 

better see the ever-growing risks associated with climate change and better know what solutions are available to 

them. Climate change is a problem, by its very nature, that will require a long-term strategy. 

Edition 1st edtion 

Place San Diego, CA 

Publisher Sally Ride Science 

Date 2010 


ISBN 978-1-933798-40-0 

URL http://www.sallyridestore.com/what-you-need-to-know-twenty-questions-and-answers-about-climate-changep-108.html 

Archive http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/breaking/feature_faq_book.pdf 



When could global warming reach 4° C? 


Author Richard A. Betts 

Author Matthew Collins 

Author Deborah L. Hemming 

Author Chris D. Jones 


Author Michael G. Sanderson 

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of 

scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded 

that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the 

twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for 

global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of 

warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range 

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of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was 

associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. 

The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general 

circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks were 

not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different 

strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While 

it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is 

considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the 

A1 family of scenarios, with ‘FI’ standing for ‘fossil intensive’. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, 

with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs 

driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climatechange 

projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including 

uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our 

best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial 

during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C 

warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’. 


Volume 369 

Issue 1934 

Pages 67-84 



DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0292 

ISSN 1364-503X 


Extra Keywords: climate modelling; climate-change projections; 4°C; global warming; dangerous climate change. 



When the mountrains roared: Stories of the 1910 fire 

Notes: 

Type Book 

Author Elers Koch 

Abstract Introduction... If history is not written it is soon forgotten. The 1910 forest fire in the Northern Rocky Mountain 

Region is an episode which has had much to do with shaping the fire policy not only of that region but the whole 

United States. The tragic and disastrous culmination of that battle to save the forests shocked the nation into a 

realization of the necessity of a better system of fire control. It is now thirty-two years since that memorable 

summer. The men who took part in the campaign are getting older each year and before many more years have 

elapsed the 1910 fire season will be only a tradition. For this reason the writer who, as Supervisor of the Lolo 

Forest, had some small part in the campaign and the background of a current knowledge of the regional situation 

through those trying days, has undertaken to compile an informal record of the fire history of that year. This is 

not written for publication, but primarily as a record for the Forest Service, so that the story will not be lost. A 

large mass of historical material was assembled under the direction of Mr. Fred Morrell in 1926, and free use has 

been made of these records. 

Edition R1-78-30 

Place Idaho 

Publisher United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Idaho Panhandle National Forests 

Date 1978 


ISBN ASIN: B0013CJ1KO 

URL http://www.foresthistory.org/ASPNET/Publications/region/1/1910_fires/index.htm 



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Introduction 

The Organization of the National Forests (1910) 

The Great Fire 

The Couer d'Alene & St. Joe 

Wallace burns 

Stories of firefighting crews 

Pulaski's Crew - Placer Creek 

Bell's Crew - Middle Fork Big Creek 

Rock's Crew - Setzer Creek 

Debbitt's Crew - Setzer Creek 

Hollingshead's Crew - West Fork Big Creek 

Danielson's Crew - Stevens Peak 

Taylor's Crew - Bullion Mine 

Joe Halm's Crew - St. Joe River 

The Milwaukee Railroad 

Individual Experiences 

Burying the dead & Payment of claims 

Lolo Forest 

Roy A. Phillips' Story 

Cabinet National Forest 

Tuscor Fire 

Pend Oreille Forest 

DeFaut Fire 

Kaniksu National Forest 

Clearwater Forest 

Moose Creek Crew 

Kootenai Forest 

Nezperce Forest 

Damages 

Salvage of Timber 

Couer d'Alene 

St. Joe 

Lolo (St. Regis Drainage, now on Cabinet) 

Cabinet 

After-effects of the Fire 

References 

Widespread decline in greenness of Amazonian vegetation due to the 2010 drought 


Author Liang Xu 

Author Arindam Samanta 

Author Marcos H. Costa 

Author Sangram Ganguly 

Author Ramakrishna R. Nemani 

Author Ranga B. Myneni 

Abstract During this decade, the Amazon region has suffered two severe droughts in the short span of five years – 2005 

and 2010. Studies on the 2005 drought present a complex, and sometimes contradictory, picture of how these 

forests have responded to the drought. Now, on the heels of the 2005 drought, comes an even stronger drought 

in 2010, as indicated by record low river levels in the 109 years of bookkeeping. How has the vegetation in this 

region responded to this record-breaking drought? Here we report widespread, severe and persistent declines in 

vegetation greenness, a proxy for photosynthetic carbon fixation, in the Amazon region during the 2010 drought 

based on analysis of satellite measurements. The 2010 drought, as measured by rainfall deficit, affected an area 

1.65 times larger than the 2005 drought – nearly 5 million km² of vegetated area in Amazonia. The decline in 

greenness during the 2010 drought spanned an area that was four times greater (2.4 million km²) and more 

severe than in 2005. Notably, 51% of all drought-stricken forests showed greenness declines in 2010 (1.68 

million km²) compared to only 14% in 2005 (0.32 million km²). These declines in 2010 persisted following the 

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end of the dry season drought and return of rainfall to normal levels, unlike in 2005. Overall, the widespread 

loss of photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian vegetation due to the 2010 drought may represent a significant 

perturbation to the global carbon cycle. 


Volume 38 

Issue 7 

Pages L07402 (4 p.) 



DOI 10.1029/2011GL046824 

ISSN 0094–8276 


Extra Keywords: Amazon; rain forest; drought. 



Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States 


Author Philip E. van Mantgem 

Author Nathan L. Stephenson 

Author John C. Byrne 

Author Lori D. Daniels 




Author Andrew J. Larson 

Author Jeremy M. Smith 



Abstract Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as 

carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States 

showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with 

doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, 

tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which 

suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality 

increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. 

Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree 

mortality rates. 


Volume 323 

Issue 5913 

Pages 521-524 



DOI 10.1126/science.1165000 

ISSN 0036-8075 




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Widespread Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic wildfire records from Poland: Evidence from charcoal and 

pyrolytic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons 


Author Leszek Marynowski 

Author Bernd R. T. Simoneit 

Abstract Laboratory tests indicate that 15% O₂, instead of 12%, is required for the propagation of a widespread forest 

fire, a 3% increase from what was previously assumed. The presence of widespread wildfire records in the 

Upper Triassic and Lower Jurassic of Central Europe suggests that the lower limit for O₂ during this time was at 

least 15%. Wildfire records are based on the co-occurrence of charcoal fragments and elevated concentrations 

of pyrolytic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In all samples charcoal fragments are large to 

medium-sized and angular, suggesting that they were transported by rivers only short distances after 

charcoalification. Calculated combustion temperatures vary with stratigraphic position and average 295–377 °C, 

which is characteristic for ground or near-surface wildfires. The most extensive wildfires occurred in the earliest 

Jurassic and their intensities successively decreased with time. Average concentrations of the sum of pyrolytic 

PAHs for the lowermost Jurassic Zagaje Formation reached ~1253 µg/g total organic carbon (TOC), whereas for 

the Upper Triassic–Lower Jurassic Skloby Formation they did not exceed ~16 µg/g TOC. Charcoal-bearing 

sequences were also characterized by the presence of phenyl-PAHs (Ph-PAHs) and oxygen-containing aromatic 

compounds. The dominance of the more stable Ph-PAH isomers in these immature to low-maturity sedimentary 

rocks supports their pyrolytic origin. The oxygenated PAHs may also be derived from combustion processes. 

Publication PALAIOS 

Volume 24 

Issue 12 

Pages 785-798 


Journal Abbr PALAIOS 

DOI 10.2110/palo.2009.p09-044r 

ISSN 0883-1351 

URL http://palaios.sepmonline.org/cgi/doi/10.2110/palo.2009.p09-044r 



Wilderness fire science: A state-of-knowledge review 



Abstract Wilderness fire science has progressed since the last major review of the topic, but it was significantly affected 

by the large fire events of 1988. Strides have been made in both fire behavior and fire effects, and in the issues 

of scaling, yet much of the progress has not been specifically tied to wilderness areas or funding. Although the 

management of fire in wilderness has been slow to recover from the fires of 1988, science has progressed most 

significantly in its ability to deal with fire at a landscape level. Major challenges include better understanding of 

the regional context and function of wilderness areas, as well as understanding and incorporating fire patchiness, 

variability and synergistic disturbance factors into predictive models. If more precise models are to be applied 

accurately in wilderness, better weather databases are essential. 

Date 2000 

Proceedings Title USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-15-2000 

Conference Name Wilderness science in a time of change 

Place Missoula, MT 


Volume VOL-5.Wilderness ecosystems, threats, and management 

Pages 5-22 

Short Title Wilderness Fire Science 


Extra Keywords: wilderness; fire behavior; fire effects. 

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Notes: 

Citation: 



Agee, James K. 2000. Wilderness fire science: A state of knowledge review. In: Cole, David N.; McCool, Stephen F.; Borrie, 

William T.; O'Loughlin, Jennifer, comps. 2000. Wilderness science in a time of change conference-Volume 5: Wilderness ecosystems, 

threats, and management; 1999 May 23~27; Missoula, MT. Proceedings RMRS-P-15-VOL-5. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 5-22. 

Wildfire management in the United States: The evolution of a policy failure 


Author George Busenberg 

Abstract Wildland fires constitute a major crisis in American environmental policy, a crisis created by a longstanding 

policy failure. This article explores the political processes that generated and reinforced this policy failure over 

time. The concepts of bounded rationality, punctuated equilibria, and selfreinforcing mechanisms are applied to 

study the evolution of American wildfire policy between 1905 and the present. This study finds that a 

self-defeating wildfire suppression policy was established in the period 1905 through 1911, and subsequently 

reinforced for more than five decades. This policy did not include a complementary program to counteract the 

gradual accumulation of flammable organic materials (fuels) that occurred in many ecosystems when fires were 

suppressed. The resulting fuel accumulations have greatly increased the risk of damaging, high-intensity 

wildfires in a range of American wildlands. A combination of fire suppression and fuel reduction programs will 

be needed to manage this risk in the future. 

Publication Review of Policy Research 

Volume 21 

Issue 2 

Pages 145–156 


Journal Abbr Rev. Policy Res. 

DOI 10.1111/j.1541-1338.2004.00066.x 

ISSN 1541-1338 

Short Title Wildfire management in the United States 


Extra environmental policy 



Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America 




Author Megan K. Walsh 








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Author Mark Daniels 


Author Martin Lavoie 





Author David S. Shafer 




Abstract It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic 

climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship 

between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen 

records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 

10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated 

continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at 

any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. 

Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although 

there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further 

increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka 

are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in 

human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have 

contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important 

role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity. 


Volume 106 

Issue 8 

Pages 2519–2524 



DOI 10.1073/pnas.0808212106 

ISSN 1091-6490 

URL www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0808212106 

Extra Keywords: biomass burning; charcoal; comet; Younger Dryas. 



Wildfires in boreal ecosystems: Past, present and some emerging trends 





Abstract With the emergence of a new forest management paradigm based on the emulation of natural disturbance 

regimes, interest in fire-related studies has increased in the boreal forest management community. A key issue in 

this regard is the improvement of our understanding of the variability in past disturbances and its linkages with 

climate and ecosystems. The surge in research activity has further been exacerbated by the increasing 

awareness of climate change, which has already exposed boreal forests to greater fire risk in recent decades. It 

is anticipated that further warming and drying will further enhance fire frequency and area burned in many 

boreal forests. Better predictions of future fire activity will contribute to better long-term forest planning in 

managed boreal forests. The 12 papers presented in this special issue exemplify this increased research activity 

by bringing together studies from diverse disciplines and presenting the latest advances regarding 

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methodological approaches for reconstruction and modelling of past, present and future fire activity. Here we 

aim to summarise, evaluate and set into context some of the new insights arising from these studies and also to 

discuss some considerations to be taken into account in future research activities 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 991–995 



DOI 10.1071/WFv19n8_FO 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Wildfires in boreal ecosystems 


paper=WFv19n8_FO 


Extra Keywords: biomass burning; carbon emissions; charcoal analysis; fire history; palaeoecology; simulation model. 



Wildland fire hazard and risk: Problems, definitions, and context 



Abstract The risks, hazards, and relative severity of wildland fires are presented here within the ecological context of 

historical natural fire regimes, time, space, and process. As the public dialogue on the role and impacts of 

wildland fire increases, it is imperative for all partners to converge on clear and concise terminology that defines 

risk, hazard, and the characteristic (or uncharacteristic) nature of wildland fire. These terms must be defined in 

the context of scale--both spatial and temporal. The concept of historical natural fire regimes involves a 

classification of the characteristic, or "natural" processes and effects associated with wildland fire occurring in 

sustainable ecosystems. When a wildland fire occurs within the time, space, and severity parameters of the 

historical natural fire regime, the fire can be called natural, or "characteristic". The milieu of disturbance effects 

we call catastrophic, such as economic losses, damages to communities and structures, or impacts on short-term 

aesthetic values involve social, cultural, and economic values and risks--none is directly associated with 

ecological values, damages, or risks. In the context of technical risk assessments, the term "risk" considers not 

only the probability of an event, but also includes values and expected losses. However, within the fire 

community it refers only to the probability of ignition (both man- and lightning-caused). `Hazard' refers to the 

state of the fuel, exclusive of weather or the environs in which the fuel is found. Unlike many common uses of 

the term `severity', fire severity refers specifically to the effect a fire has on wildland systems. It is inappropriate 

to use the term severity to describe the behavior of the fire phenomenon itself. Instead, we should confine its 

use to that relating only to a fire's effect. Finally, I discuss the limitations and conflicts to integrating all social, 

cultural, economic, health, and safety values in our public and policy-forming dialogue relating to fire risk, 

hazard, and severity. Typical risk assessments consider all relevant endpoints, including socio-economic, 

management, as well as ecological elements. Herein, I use the Black Mountain 2 Fire from August 2003 in the 

northern Rockies to illustrate the spatiotemporal extent of fire's impacts on the endpoints. When expressed over 

all affected spatiotemporal scales, the overlay of all endpoints from this synthetic scenario results in a "decision 

space" ranging in time from an hour to a century, and in space ranging from a few square meters to the 

continent. 


Volume 211 

Issue 1-2 

Pages 73-82 



DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2005.01.029 

ISSN 0378-1127 

Short Title Wildland fire hazard and risk 

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Extra Keywords: fire terminology; fire hazard; fire severity; fire risk; fire regime; risk assessment. 



Wildland fire in ecosystems: Effects of fire on air 


Author David V. Sandberg 


Author Janice L. Peterson 

Author John Core 

Abstract This state-of-knowledge review about the effects of fire on air quality can assist land, fire, and air resource 

managers with fire and smoke planning, and their efforts to explain to others the science behind fire-related 

program policies and practices to improve air quality. Chapter topics include air quality regulations and fire; 

characterization of emissions from fire; the transport, dispersion, and modeling of fire emissions; atmospheric 

and plume chemistry; air quality impacts of fire; social consequences of air quality impacts; and 

recommendations for future research. 

Report Number RMRS-GTR-42-vol. 5 





Pages 79 p. 



Extra Keywords: smoke; air quality; fire effects; smoke management; prescribed fire; wildland fire; wildfire; biomass 

emissions; smoke dispersion. 



Wildland fire in ecosystems: Effects of fire on flora 


Author James K. Brown 

Author Jane Kapler Smith 

Abstract This state-of-knowledge review about the effects of fire on flora and fuels can assist land managers with 

ecosystem and fire management planning and in their efforts to inform others about the ecological role of fire. 

Chapter topics include fire regime classification, autecological effects of fire, fire regime characteristics and 

postfire plant community developments in ecosystems throughout the United States and Canada, global climate 

change, ecological principles of fire regimes, and practical considerations for managing fire in an ecosytem 

context. 

Report Number RMRS-GTR-42-vol. 2 





Pages 257 p. 

Short Title Wildland fire in ecosystems 


Extra Keywords: ecosystem; fire effects; fire management; fire regime; fire severity; fuels; habitat; plant response; 

plants; succession; vegetation. 

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Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural 

variability: Collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data 



Author Dominic Cyr 



Abstract Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting 

conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity of managed ecosystems. Because of their 

climate determinism, forest fires are likely to have consequences that could exacerbate biophysical and 

socioeconomical vulnerabilities in the context of climate change. We evaluated future trends in fire activity 

under climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest and investigated whether these changes were 

included in the variability observed during the last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records from three 

lakes. Prediction of future annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected 

from an ensemble of 19 global climate model experiments. The increase in burn rate that is predicted for the end 

of the 21st century (0.45% year⁻¹ with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well within the long-term past 

variability (0.37 to 0.90% year⁻¹). Although our results suggest that the predicted change in burn rates per se 

will not move this ecosystem to new conditions, the effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with current 

rates of clear-cutting or other low-retention types of harvesting, which still prevail in this region, remain 

preoccupying. 


Volume 19 

Issue 8 

Pages 1127–1139 



DOI 10.1071/WF09092 

ISSN 1448-5516 

Short Title Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability 


paper=WF09092 



Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters 


Author Yohai Kaspi 

Author Tapio Schneider 

Abstract In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar 

latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain 

(orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences 

in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we 

show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric 

waves—nearly stationary Rossby waves—generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We 

demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model3, 4, 5, with which we 

show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity 

and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the 

contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by 

warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries. 

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Volume 471 

Issue 7340 

Pages 621-624 



DOI 10.1038/nature09924 

ISSN 1476-4687 




World Data Center for Paleoclimatology - Data Sets Listing 

Type Web Page 

Author NCDC NOAA 

Abstract NOAA Paleoclimatology is a branch of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Paleo data come from natural 

sources such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments-- and extend the archive of weather 

and climate back hundreds to millions of years. NOAA Paleo provides data and information scientists need to 

understand natural climate variability and future climate change. We also operate the World Data Center for 

Paleoclimatology which distributes data contributed by scientists around the world. 

Website Title NOAA Paleoclimatology 

Website Type Data Sets Listing 

Short Title NOAA Paleo Data 

URL http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/datalist.html 



World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated 


Author Markus Kottek 

Author Jürgen Grieser 

Author Christoph Beck 

Author Bruno Rudolf 

Author Franz Rubel 

Abstract The most frequently used climate classification map is that ofWladimir Köppen, presented in its latest version 1961 by 

Rudolf Geiger. A huge number of climate studies and subsequent publications adopted this or a former release of the 

Köppen-Geiger map. While the climate classification concept has been widely applied to a broad range of topics in 

climate and climate change research as well as in physical geography, hydrology, agriculture, biology and educational 

aspects, a well-documented update of the world climate classification map is still missing. Based on recent data sets 

from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia and the Global Precipitation Climatology 

Centre (GPCC) at the German Weather Service, we present here a new digital Köppen-Geiger world map on climate 

classification, valid for the second half of the 20th century. 

Publication Meteorologische Zeitschrift 

Volume 15 

Issue 3 

Pages 259–263 


Journal Abbr Meteorol. Z. 

DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130 

ISSN 0941-2948 

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URL http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2006/00000015/00000003/art00001? 

token=005c1eea4b0fe0b1285d355a666f3a7b6c7a40444d2c6b415276783b49264f655d375c6b6876305021c62461519f 



World of change: Global temperatures : Feature articles 

Type Web Page 

Author The Earth Observatory NASA 

Website Title World of Change: Decadal Temperatures 

Website Type Features 

URL http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php 

Rights EOS Project Science Office, NASA GSFC 



Worlds in the making; The evolution of the universe 

Type Book 

Author Svante Arrhenius 

Translator H. Borns 


Edition Illustrated 

Place New York, London 

Publisher Harper & Brothers Publishers 

Date 1908 


Short Title Worlds in the making; the evolution of the universe 

URL http://www.archive.org/details/worldsinmakingev00arrhrich 



Notes: 


I. VOLCANIC PHENOMENA AND EARTHQUAKES . . 1 

Destruction caused by volcanism and by earthquakes.-- Different kinds of volcanoes. -- Vesuvius. -- Products of eruption.-- Volcanic 

activity diminishing.-- Structure of volcanoes.-- Geographical distribution of volcanoes.-- Temperature in the interior of the earth.-- 

Significance of water for volcanism. -- Composition of the earth's interior.-- Geographical distribution of earthquakes.-- Fissures in the 

earth's crust.-- Groups of earthquakes.-- Waves in the sea and in the air accompanying earthquakes.-- Their connection with 

volcanism.-- Systems of fissures.-- Seismograms. 

II. THE CELESTIAL BODIES, IN PARTICULAR THE EARTH, AS ABODES OF LIVING BEINGS ... 39 

Manifold character of the worlds.-- The earth probably at first a ball of gases.-- Formation of the earth crust and its rapid cooling.-- 

Balance between heat received and heat lost' by radiation.-- Life already existing on the earth for a milliard of years.-- The waste of 

solar heat.-- Temperature and habitability of the planets.-- Heat-preserving influence of the atmosphere.-- Significance of carbon 

dioxide in the atmosphere Warm and cold geological ages.-- Fluctuations in the percentage of carbon dioxide of the air.-- Combustion, 

decay, and growth.-- Atmospheric oxygen. Vegetable life more ancient than animal life.-- The atmospheres of planets.-- Chances of an 

improvement in the climate. 

III. RADIATION AND CONSTITUTION OF THE SUN . 64 

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Stability of the solar system.-- Losses and possible gains of heat by the sun.-- Theses of Mayer and of Helmholtz.-- Temperatures of 

the white, yellow, and reddish stars, and of the sun.-- Sun-spots and sun faculse.-- Prominences.-- Spectra of the parts of the sun.-- 

Temperature of the sun.-- The interior of the sun. Its composition according to the mechanical theory of heat.-- The losses of heat by 

the sun probably covered by the enormous solar energy. 

IV. THE RADIATION PRESSURE 94 

Newton's law of gravitation.-- Kepler's observation of comets' tails. --The thesis of Euler.-- Proof of Maxwell.-- The radiation 

pressure.-- Electric charges and condensation.-- Comets' tails and radiation pressure.-- Constituents and properties of comets' tails.-- 

Weight of the solar corona.-- Loss and gain of matter by the sun.-- Nature of meteorites.-- Electric charge of the sun.-- Electrons 

drawn into the sun.-- Magnetic properties of the sun and appearance of the corona.-- Constituents of the meteors.-- Nebulae and their 

heat and light. 

V. THE SOLAR DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE. POLAR LIGHTS AND THE VARIATIONS OF TERRESTRIAL MAGNETISM 118 

The supply of dust from the sun rather insignificant.-- Polarization of the light of the sky.-- The upper clouds.-- Different kinds of 

aurorse.-- Their connection with the corona of the sun.-- Polar lights and sun-spots.-- Periodicity of polar lights.-- Polar lights and 

magnetic disturbances.-- Velocity of solar dust.-- Fixation of atmospheric nitrogen.-- The Zodiacal Light. 

VI. END OF THE SUN. ORIGIN OF NEBULA ... 148 

The extinction of the sun.-- Collision between two celestial bodies.-- The new star in Perseus.-- Formation of nebulae.-- The 

appearance of nebulae.-- The nebulae catch wandering meteors and comets.-- The ring nebula in Lyra.-- Variable stars.-- Eta in 

Argus.-- Mira Ceti.-- Lyra and Algol stars.-- Evolution of the stars. 

VII. THE NEBULAR AND THE SOLAR STATES . .191 

The energy of the universe.-- The entropy of the universe.-- The entropy increases in the suns, but decreases in the nebulae.-- 

Temperature and constitution of the nebulae.-- Schuster's calculations of the condition of a celestial body consisting of gases.-- Action 

of the loss of heat on nebulae and on suns.-- Development of a rotating nebula into a planetary system.-- The hypothesis of 

Kant-Laplace.-- Objections to it.-- The views of Chamberlin and Moulton.-- The radiation pressure balances the effect of Newtonian 

gravitation.-- The emission of gases from the nebulae balances the waste of heat characteristic to the solar systems. 

VIII. THE SPREADING OF LIFE THROUGH THE UNIVERSE ... ............ 212 

Stability of the species.-- Theory of mutation.-- Spontaneous generation.-- Bathybius.-- Panspermia.-- The standpoints of Richter, 

Ferdinand Cohn, and Lord Kelvin.-- The radiation pressure enables spores to escape.-- The effect of strong sunlight and of cold on the 

germinating power.-- Transport of spores through the atmosphere into universal space and through it to other planets.-- General 

conclusions. 

Year of the fires: The story of the Great Fires of 1910 

Type Book 


Abstract Description: The wildfires of the summer of 1910 scorched millions of acres in the western states, depositing 

soot as far away as Greenland. Through the experiences and words of rangers, soldiers, politicians, scientists, 

and the volunteers who fought the fires and were forever scarred by them, acclaimed historian and former forest 

fire fighter Stephen Pyne tells the story of that catastrophic year and its indelible legacy on the firefighting 

policies of today. Not only does Pyne explain how wildfires happen and how they are fought, he also chronicles 

the ongoing debate on the relative merits of firefighting versus "light burning." More than a memorable 

adventure tale, Year of the Fires is the story of a profound event that continues to shape American life. (from: 

http://www.indiebound.org/book/9780142001172) The Great Fires of 1910 were great not because they were 

big - which they were - but because they collided with American culture in spectacular ways. They happened 

within a highly politicized context and traumatized the fledgling U.S. Forest Service. They killed 78 firefighters 

in six scattered settings, overran budgets by a million 1910 dollars, and personally affected four generations of 

chief foresters. That agency's response created the context within which America established its wildland fire 

policies and programs. But while that larger context is what made the fires significant, their core remains the 

stories of crews caught in the flames. Some survived, some succumbed. (from:http://www.stephenpyne.com 

/year_of_the_fires__the_story_of_the_ great_fires_of_1910_92911.htm) 

Edition Illustrated edition 


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Publisher Viking Adult 

Date May 2001 


ISBN 0670899909, 9780670899906 

Short Title Year of the Fires 

URL http://www.stephenpyne.com/year_of_the_fires__the_story_of_the_great_fires_of_1910_92911.htm 

Extra Natural Disasters, United States - 20th Century (1900-1945) 



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Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

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