Oregon wildfire season 2023: What to know as heat, dry conditions expected to return

Oregon is heading into wildfire season in relatively good shape following a snowy winter, wet spring and a fully stocked firefighting force.

Yet there are signs of danger. Summer is expected to be hotter and drier than normal, and a string of 90-degree days in May helped spark a handful of small wildfires. And two straight wet springs has led to the rapid growth of fine fuels that could dry out and bring an active fire season by late July and August, fire experts said.

For now, the areas projected to see above normal fire risk are central and southeastern Oregon, mainly in the grassland, while the rest of the state sits at “normal” danger through August.

"All things considered, we're in a pretty good shape," said Jessica Prakke, spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Forestry. "Conditions are relatively good. And this slower start to the season buys us some time to get our fire crews hired and trained. But with the hot weather, Oregonians do need to keep fire prevention at the top of their minds."

Oregon's snowpack helps push back start of wildfire season

The "good start" is based partly on Oregon’s snowpack — which sits at 164% of normal — and should delay mountain forests from becoming ripe for ignition and fire spread through June and into July.

About half the state is considered in moderate drought right now, which isn't ideal but still is better than 76% a year ago, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“Especially in the upper elevations of the mountains, the snow is working in favor of slowing the onset on fire season,” said John Saltenberger, fire weather program manager for the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center.

Fewer lightning strikes could help limit Oregon fire danger

Another factor working in Oregon’s favor is lightning strikes are projected to be at or below normal.

Last year, Oregon saw the most lightning strikes since 2014. Those strikes ignited blazes such as the Cedar Creek Fire, which eventually blew up into a 127,00-acre inferno that brought evacuations to Oakridge, and the Double Creek Fire, which burned 171,000 acres near Enterprise.

“We’re not expecting as many strikes as 2022 — I’d estimate lightning to stay at normal or below normal numbers this year,” Saltenberger said.

Summer lightning in the Northwest often develops from monsoons in the Southwest. This year is forecast to be a lighter monsoon season.

When will fire season start in Oregon?

Given the conditions, official fire season is expected to begin in early June in southwest Oregon and mid-June in northwest Oregon, Prakke said.

That doesn't mean fire danger would be high or campfires banned — only that wildfire would start becoming a real threat and limits on burning could be imposed.

'Started late and went long':Even in quieter season, wildfire impact felt across Oregon in 2022

Warmer summer could favor fires across Pacific Northwest

Long-term forecasts for the Pacific Northwest all favor hotter and drier conditions than normal, which could mean a tinderbox forest by late July, August and September.

All the fine fuels in Oregon’s forests that have been growing over the last two wet springs can dry out and become flammable.

“These kinds of wet springs really drives fuel development, making them more abundant,” Oregon State University forestry professor John Bailey said. “Later on when we dry out, those fuels will dry out. Those fuels and the warmth toward the end of fire season is what has most foresters worried.”

Saltenberger said fire officials in southeast Oregon are worried about “excessive fuel buildup” in the grasslands following two wet springs. That's what led to the above-normal fire risk, he said.

Record-sized wildland firefighting crews remain intact

Last year, Oregon and federal crews deployed their largest wildland firefighting force on record. This year, numbers will be pretty close to the same.

Oregon added 100 firefighters to its statewide crew in 2022 following passage of Senate Bill 762, along with an increasing number of remote cameras that watch the forests for fire starts. This year, Oregon has 93 remote cameras at 64 sites, with the goal of reaching 110 cameras by year's end.

Seasonal state firefighters are still in the process of being hired and will be trained through June.

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On the federal level, the U.S. Forest Service plans to hire the same number of firefighters as last year — 11,300. The agency had hired 9,319, including 1,478 in the Pacific Northwest, as of earlier this month.

Firefighters were credited with stopping a lot of fires last summer, posting a 96% rate of putting fires out at smaller than 10 acres, which kept Oregon largely smoke free during the summer, until an east wind event on Labor Day fueled a significant blowup in the fall.

Firefighting also has become increasingly deadly — two firefighters died in action in Oregon last year — to bring Oregon’s wildland firefighter death count to four since 2020.

Predicting severity of wildfire season is difficult

In a lot of ways, Oregon’s wildfire season is similar to a sports season. You can take an educated guess about how the season will go, but you don’t really know until the games start.

Wildfire seasons are like that as well — you don't really know until the summer hits, the lightning strikes and the heat grows.

Some seasons, like 2017, show all the signs of being a quiet wildfire season but explode. Others, like 2015, Oregon's hottest year on record, have wildfires but not quite as much as might be expected.

“Conditions at the beginning of the season can set the stage — they can accelerate or delay fire season,” Saltenberger said. “But it’s really the weather during fire season that makes the biggest difference. And we won’t know that until it happens.”

Days of unhealthy air quality

This graph shows, over the years, the rise in the number of days with air quality measured at "unhealthy for sensitive groups" due to wildfire smoke.

Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 15 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. Urness is the author of “Best Hikes with Kids: Oregon” and “Hiking Southern Oregon.” He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or 503-399-6801. Find him on Twitter at @ZachsORoutdoors.