Box Office: 'Terminator Genisys' Is A Flop No More

Terminator Genisys may not be a box office flop anymore, but rather a groundbreaking smash hit. The Arnold Schwarzenegger sci-fi sequel opened with a whopping $27.4 million on its first day in China. That is the fourth-biggest opening day in that territory ever, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction ($30m),  Avengers: Age of Ultron ($33m), and Furious 7 ($63m). It's higher than the $17m single-day debut for Jurassic World. Now the three films above it on the single day record list, and at least one film below it (Jurassic World with $229m) all earned over $200 million in China alone, with Transformers 4 and Furious 7 both earning over $300m ($320m and $390m respectively). Now for the record, we're only talking about one day of box office and frontloading is as much a thing in China as it is in America. Word of mouth for the film likely won't be much better over there than it was over here. It is probable that the movie's opening week grosses will make up around 50% of its overall box office take, especially with the likes of Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, Minions, and Ant-Man coming down the pike in September.

The film was the first American release to debut in China since Jurassic World debuted back in June, as its release ended the mid-summer "blackout" or moratorium on American which allows local productions (like the $330m+ grossing Monster Hunt) to have their piece of the box office pie. But with an opening day this big, there aren't many scenarios by which Terminator Genisys isn't a huge hit in China. From the moment it debuted in America seven weeks ago, I was careful to confine my analysis to its domestic performance, because I had an inkling that something like this might happen. Arnold Schwarzenegger still has a significant following in China, especially when it comes to franchises and/or team-ups with Sylvester Stallone. Escape Plan earned $40 million there in 2013, or 36% of its overall $112m foreign total. The Expendables 3 made a whopping $72m (43%) of its $166m overseas total to give the film a vaguely face-saving $200m+ worldwide cume.

So, with the caveat that we're discussing this in relation to a single day of box office in a single territory, the only question now is whether the film has anything resembling legs in the Chinese marketplace. The film dropped 60% on Monday for a $10.5m gross and a new $36.5m cume. Escape Plan earned 50% of its total via its $20m opening weekend while Expendables 3 made less than double its $46m debut overall in the territory. Paramount/ Viacom  wants a new franchise out of this $155m Terminator reboot/sequel, and they are carefully watching the China numbers to see if one is justified. Prior to yesterday, the film had earned $324m worldwide, which is mediocre without being a disaster. The embarrassment mostly came from America, where the film opened with $44m over the Wed-Sun debut and topped out at $89m. But today's numbers puts its worldwide cume at $363m, which means it will probably pass (for example) Warner Bros. / Time Warner  Inc.'s Mad Max: Fury Road's $373m cume by today or tomorrow at the latest. That one did not play in China and may not play there ever.

There are few scenarios whereby it doesn't become the first film in history to cross $400 million worldwide without topping $100m in America. Obviously it's tough to do much speculative math on one day especially when the Chinese market has expanded so much in the last few years, and especially because movies open on almost any given day of the week. But let's play worst-case scenario. Let's assume that Terminator: Genisys is as frontloaded in China as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II was in America four years ago. That film earned a record-breaking $91m opening day but ended its domestic run with "only" $381m. That inexplicable crash for Terminator 5 would give the film $114m in China, which would put its total above the likes of Pacific Rim ($111m), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($107m), and San Andreas ($95m). It would push its worldwide cume to $438m, which would basically guarantee a sequel. Even if the film flat lines, and even with the caveat that studios keep less of each ticket sale from China than they do from other territories, the massive opening day still proves that the demand is there for a Schwarzenegger-fronted Terminator film.

Just showing a bit more legs than that gets it over Captain America 2 ($115 million), Iron Man 3 ($121m), and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($121m). It is all-but-assured a spot on the top-twenty biggest grossing movies in China, and if it gets to "just" $166m it will pass Transformers: Dark of the Moon to enter the top ten. And if it merely plays as swiftly as Avengers: Age of Ultron ($33m opening day/$156m five-day debut/$240m total), it still gets to $199m in China and $523m worldwide. If it plays as frontloaded as Furious 7 ($63m opening day, $390m total), it gets to $169m in China. Forget the $400m mark,  Terminator Genisys could theoretically become the first US film to fail to top $100m domestic and yet still hit $450m or even $500m worldwide. So yeah, I'm going to be following this one for the next few weeks, and we all should be too. Now it's not the first film to merely make a little over $100m here and go nuts overseas, as Life of Pi can attest ($124m domestic/$609m worldwide). But this feels different, and I would argue it is different.

This is a critically-dismissed would-be franchise-starter, one that bombed in America and didn't do all that hot elsewhere either. Yet is poised to be potentially an outright smash hit in a particular territory outside of America to such a degree as to guarantee a sequel. It's one thing for Pacific Rim to do $100m here, and $100m in China and thus get a sequel. But for a film to outright flop in America and yet potentially become one of the biggest American exports of all time in China, well, that's a game changer too. We'll see because I imagine this won't be the last time I write about this one. At the very least, and I'll discuss this later, it shows the incredible advantage that now comes with being among the 34 American films selected to play in Chinese cinemas in any given year.