How much power does Alexander Lukashenko have?

MEETINGS BETWEEN Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin are often awkward. In September, when the Belarusian dictator ranted about men “running away” from mobilisation in Russia, his counterpart squirmed in his seat. That reflects their uncomfortable relationship. Mr Lukashenko relies on Mr Putin for economic, political and military support. He is blundering and boastful—often excruciatingly so. But he is also a man who never gives up negotiating. On June 24th he reputedly brokered a deal to end the brief mutiny of the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries. Eager to prove his agency, he has claimed that he convinced Mr Putin to spare the life of Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Mr Lukashenko has been the rebellion’s biggest winner. But how much power does he really have?

Mr Lukashenko rose from relative obscurity. A former collective-farm boss, he was elected Belarus’s president in 1994, three years after the country was established from the wreckage of the Soviet Union. He clings to many of the vestiges of that era: communist symbolism, political terror and a state-controlled economy. Belarus subsists on loans and cheap energy from Russia and Mr Lukashenko owes his political survival to his neighbour, too. In 2020, when huge protests swept the country after the Belarusian strongman stole an election, Mr Putin promised that Russian police would support Mr Lukashenko’s violent crackdown. The demonstrations, which had threatened to overthrow him and his regime, began to fizzle out.